Fantasy Baseball Advice

I don’t particularly like the term ‘beginner’s luck’.  If we won the LABR NL-Only Expert League (sponsored/hosted by Steve Gardner at USA Today), I imagine this dismissive term would be tagged on us.  Those smart-ass bloggers won LABR – such beginner’s luck!

Unfortunately, we’ll never know because we finished in a tie for 7th place and ‘Beginner’s average performance’ doesn’t have the same colloquial attractiveness.

(Congratulations to Doug Dennis who managed 41 pitching points (out of 65) after investing just $30 on pitching in the draft.  That’s what can happen with a little luck, a couple of good $1 picks (F. Salas, D. Gee), and an April trade for Ian Kennedy)

Coming out of our draft, we were feeling pretty good about our offense (which we spent about $180 of our $260) where we placed three big bets (Albert Pujols – $40, Ryan Braun – $37, Jose Reyes – $29) and three medium-sized bets (Todd Neil Walker – $18, Logan Morrison – $18, Danny Espinosa – $13).  While none of our ‘cheap’ picks played particularly well or stayed particularly healthy (Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa), these guys helped carry us to 51 points which was the 3rd best offense.  (Our in-season pickups had a modest impact – our three notable ones were Juan Rivera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Brandon Wood).

If our pitching – which we thought might be average – could only overperform a bit, we had a chance to compete for the title.  Those of you with 8th grade math skills can surmise that it performed awfully (14 points).  And that’s AFTER trading Pujols in an August trade for Cliff Lee who gave us a sick line of 60.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 61 Ks.

Here’s a Spaghetti Western breakdown of our pitching:

The Good:
Yovani Gallardo ($21) – Can’t complain too much about 207.1 IP / 17 W / 3.52 / 1.215 / 207 Ks

Randy Wolf ($3) – 212.1 IP / 13 W / 3.69 / 1.319 / 134

Carlos Marmol ($20) – Yeah, wish we spent $15 for Kimbrel or Marmol blew less saves but 33 saves and 99 Ks (!!!) from a closer is solid.

Chris Capuano ($4) – The 4.55 ERA was ugly but 11 Wins and 168 Ks with an okay WHIP (1.349) was good value.

The Bad:

Clayton Richard ($5) – Ugh, why’d we draft this Hodgepadre instead of Harang or Stauffer?  The fact he only made it through 99 IP didn’t help.

Tom Gorzelanny ($2) – He pitched great (1.235 WHIP, nearly a K an inning) but he only pitched 100 innings as the Nationals preferred to give Chien-Mien Wang starts down the stretch and only managed 4 wins.

Matt Lindstrom ($2) – We were hoping for more than 2 saves and he was injured when Huston Street inevitably got hurt.  Hurts more when you think what gambling on a SP like Brandon Beachy ($1) or Dillon Gee ($1) might’ve netted.

Clay Hensley ($5) – We hoped he might steal the job from the pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez.  He then switched to SP where he was sub-average.

The Ugly:

Hong-Chih Kuo ($6) – We really liked three middle relievers with some Saves potential – Kuo, Madson, and Venters.  If Kuo has a Madson-like year of 25 saves, it would’ve netted us 7 more points in Saves.  Yip!

Javier Vazquez ($11) – This really couldn’t have worked out worse.  Grey has covered this numerous times in daily roundups but here’s the painful story.  LABR rules dictate that anyone on a 25-man roster HAS to be started.  So we couldn’t bench Vazquez during his atrocious April/May.  It was either start him or drop him.  We prayed he’d go on the Disgraceful List or show some sign of a turnaround but all we got was one bad start after another.

Vazquez has always been one of those guys who Ks a lot but gives up too many HRs and underperforms on his ratios (career xFIP of 3.75 and ERA of 4.22).  There is no way Vazquez can be effective if he isn’t K-ing in the 8-10 K/9 range.  He started the season at about half that rate  so there was little hope for the K mojo (and any level of effectiveness) to return.  I dropped him sometime in May – after lobbying hard against a hesitant Grey – when Vazquez had a  line of 39.1 IP / 2 Wins / 7.55 ERA / 1.907 WHIP / 20 Ks.

So what did he do the rest of the way?  Only 146. 1 IP / 10 Wins / 2.83 ERA / 1.011 WHIP / 135 Ks.  My guess is just holding onto Vazquez – which we would’ve done had he not had a historically bad first 8 or so starts – would’ve netted us 10 pitching points (in Wins, Ks, and ERA) and put us close to the top 3.

Oh well…hopefully if they let us in next year, we’ll learn from these pitching mistakes and make a run for the pennant.  Or at least make new mistakes so we don’t look stupid when writing the end of season post.

Two weeks ago, Albert Pujols fractured his wrist.  He said he was going to be out for 6 weeks but he wasn’t sure until he went back to his home planet Krypton, where he’s known as Al-El.  On Krypton, Al-El had a heart-to-heart with a hologram image of Stan Musial.  What Stan told Al-El was simple.  “Hitting isn’t about arms, wrists or legs.  It’s about flying backwards around the globe to before your wrist was hurt by Wilson Betemit and pulling your arm back.  Then take two weeks to pretend like you’re injured so no one thinks anything weird is going on.”  I’d be slightly concerned that Pujols is rushing himself back and he might not have his power immediately, if this weren’t Pujols.  A few years ago, he revealed in the preseason he had a broke elbow tendon or some shizz and went on to win the MVP.  He’s superhuman, don’t doubt him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jon Lester – He took a no-hitter into the trainer’s room where he found out he had a strained latissimus dorsi.  So, he’s a dolphin?  Well, if he’s that smart, have him throw with his other flipper.  Or have Al-El touch your lat and make it better!  Lester will probably be out a couple of weeks.  So it’s longer than you want, but shorter than the Big Dig.

Jeff Karstens – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  There’s far more glamorous names out there.  Like Portia, that’s a glamorous name.  Karstens is more like a 3.75 ERA pitcher than the 2.55 he currently has, but that shouldn’t stop you from throwing him out there in some leagues.

Brett Cecil – 8 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  After his last start, I said we’d need to see a few good starts from Cecil before adding him.  This was one.  Few > One.

Shane Victorino – Has a Grade 1 sprain on his thumb.  That’s a thumb sucking.  He could be out until the All-Star break.

Ryan Madson – Threw a bullpen session and he’s due back right after the All-Star break.  On a side note that has nothing to do with this, I was talking to Rudy over IM and asked him to imagine us writing a non-fantasy baseball blog and to come up with a Casey Anthony not guilty title.  His title, “Mom Finally Free from Parenting and Jail.”

Ryan Howard – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 18th home run to go along with his 71 RBIs.  I took some guff for putting him high in my preseason rankings, if I’m using the word guff correctly.  Well, guff, ya’ll!  (I’m almost certainly not using it right there.)  And for those that say, “Well, you could’ve had Berkman much later.”  I say, true, but that was a lottery ticket.  You can’t count on those.

Aramis Ramirez – 1-for-4 with his 13th homer.  I think he’s hit 10 homers in the last 11 games, but I’m not Aramis’s keeper.

Dan Haren – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Shh, don’t tell Haren but it’s technically the second half of the season.

Jhoulys Chacin – 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Why again did I have to say a correction was coming?  I suck.  Hopefully he’ll start to turn things around again.  Just putting that out into the universe.  It’s the secret.

Ian Stewart – 0-for-3.  Ah, you haven’t missed a beat, you old Mini-Mini Donkey.  The Rockies are saying Stewart’s bench depth.  For now, I’m gonna think about the good times we had for like half of a month last year and let someone else pick him up.  In the immortal words of Sean Puffy P. Diddy Puff Daddy Combs, “Memories give me the strength I need to proceed…Strength I need to believe…”

Freddie Freeman – 1-for-3 with his 12th home run.  Doc spoke about him yesterday, so I won’t go too in-depth.  Just wanna say I picked him for Rookie of the Year, not Rudy.  It’s just deserts and he’s my biscotti!  (I say biscotti because it’s sweet, but there’s probably something better for dessert.  Plus, the hard C sound is funny.)

Dustin Ackley – 2-for-3 with the always delectable slam & legs.  3 home runs and 2 steals over 50 at-bats ain’t too shabby.  Hopefully he doesn’t get how to avoid sophomore slump tips from Pedro Alvarez or Matt Wieters this offseason.

Matt Holliday – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Matt sure knows how to extend the Holliday weekend!  Huh?!  Yeah, I’m not sure what that means either.

Edinson Volquez – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  This isn’t exactly a newsflash but he’s unownable in all leagues.

Mariano Rivera – Nursing a sore triceps with saves likely to go to David Robertson.  No one seems to think it’s going to be a problem for longer than a day or two.  So he’s day-to-two-days.

Curtis Granderson – 3-for-6 with his 24th and 25th home runs.  Grandy is dandy, but Chipper is sicker.

Carlos Carrasco – 4 IP, 6 ER.  Yeah, not good, but you shouldn’t have started him vs. the Yankees.  Sorry, I put the blame on you, Akon.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Day-to-day with an ankle injury.  Still haven’t heard of one cankle injury.  Cust kayin’.

Mitch Atkins – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Nothing to see here, except the herpes on his lip.

Felipe Paulino – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 9 Ks.  See high K pitcher striking out a lot of guys… Having…hard…time…resisting…

Scott Baker – Has a mild strain of his elbow.  For a pitcher, that’s like a slight case of being dead.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss a few starts.

Matt Capps – And he was lousy again yesterday while Perkins got another save.  Maybe when Gardenhire is saying the closer is Capps, he actually means in proximity to him.  I’d grab Perkins and Nathan for speculative saves.  Capps isn’t long for the 9th.

Clayton Richard – To the 15 day DL with a left shoulder strain.  In his place could be, Anthony Bass or Wade LeBlanc, who sound like siblings of Backstreet Boys.  Whichever one gets the call will have value in home starts.  You know the old saying, “It can’t hurt starting Hodgepadres at home.”  Actually, it’s not old or really even a saying.

Corey Hart – Now with homers in back-to-back games.  Corey Hart has that never surrender attitude.

Jon Garland – Dodger pitcher, Garland, is out for the year with shoulder surgery.  With the Dodgers out of the picture, the Mets look forward to signing him for the 2012 season.

Mike Cameron – Like many Northeasterns nearing retirement, Krispie Young Sr. will be moving to the Sunshine State.  Hopefully he looks both ways at intersections so he doesn’t have another head-on collision and put a dent in Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison.

Mike Stanton – Experiencing vision problems as a result of a recent eye infection, turning his normally high K-rate into the Mark Reynolds K-stratosphere.  Jack McKeon was just glad to have something in common with one of his players.  “Hey, team, prostates and incontinence are a bitch, am I right?”

Holy hell, it’s July already, cue the fireworks. Roll the stock footage of Bill Pullman from Independence Day, except make it sound cool with a nice fantasy touch, “This week we celebrate our wins above replacement day!” This week’s list is littered with crafty lefties and dudes who wear pseudo-athletic glasses, which are also cool for squash. The season is getting interesting and I can’t wait for the first shoe to drop in the trade market. Why that expression makes any sense is beyond me, because shoes are supposed to be on the ground anyways so why would we wait for them to drop? Any the who! Good luck on this week’s fantasy endeavors, and don’t eat too many hot dogs. (Please keep in mind the pitchers and matchups change.)

One Start Options:

7/6
Jason Vargas @ Oak – Cahill
Dustin Moseley @SF – Bumgarner
Tyler Chatwood vs. Det – Penny

7/7
Derek Holland vs. Oak – Harden
Joe Saunders @ Stl – McClellan
Cory Luebke @ SF – Zito

7/8
R.A. Dickey @ SF – Vogelsong
John Lannan vs. Col – Hammel
Jordan Lyles @ Fla – Vazquez

Mike Pelfrey (@LAD vs. De La Rosa, @SF vs. Cain) Ugly ERA on the road. Mets are tattooing the ball right now and scoring a crapton of runs. Needs to avoid the dreaded big fly to have any success.

Vance Worley (@Fla vs. Nolasco, Atl vs. Lowe) It’s been years since a Vance had fantasy value, Law in ‘88 is the best I can think of. Before that it was Cousin Vance on the crappy Dukes of Hazzard years. Been effectively lucky, BB’s will be his only downfall.

Paul Maholm (Hou vs. Myers, CHC vs. Zambrano) Loves the perks at PNC, home ERA just over a deuce. Put the win/loss record aside and look deeper. I just wish the ‘Burgh had money to make a splash, because to me they are just on the cusp and need a big bat.

Chris Capuano (@LAD vs. Lilly, @SF vs. Lincecum) Another Met pitcher, another HR magnet. Pitched decent in May even better in June, it’s now July so I guess it’s either Vegas or bust.

Clayton Richard (@SF vs. Lincecum, @LAD vs. Lilly) It’s hodgepodge on opposite day. The epitome of a whiptard. Usually shows up every other week for a start that you shouldn’t have sonavabenched.

Charlie Furbush (@Ana vs. Pineiro, @KC vs. Hochevar) Top 5 all time names in sports. Detroit need to infuse some potential into there starting rotation. Averages over a K /inning in the minors. Dudley Dawson said it best, “We’ve got bush!”

Brian Duensing (TB vs. Price, @CHW vs. Buerhle) Pitches just well enough to keep himself on this post. Nothing that jumps out and says “Hey, you’re fantasy worthy,” and I’m here to say you’re correct. Typical low end 2 start worthy guy who flounders on wire.

Joel Pineiro (Det vs. Furbush, Sea vs. Hernandez) Look up. You see what I wrote for Duensing? Okay, do the same with Joel but read it right handed.

Chris Volstad (Phi vs. Hamels, Hou vs. Rodriquez) He’s a groundball wizard. Gets himself into trouble when he tries to K too many. ERA lower by a run a half at home, unfortunately the Marlins just plain stink.

Brett Cecil (@Bos vs. Lester, @Cle vs. Carrasco) Went to the minors to build up arm strength. Translation to fantasy:  he was awful and not hurt. Potential is there to be decent, better to get in on the bottom floor for free, just needs to build quality innings.

Sounds like Ike Davis is done for the year.  He could be facing microfracture ankle surgery.  Man, will the Mets ever catch a big break?  First, Beltran had microfracture surgery on his knee, and now Davis.  What’s with the Mets and tiny surgery?  Can’t the Mets find a normal-sized doctor?  Microsurgery is the 101 class if you’re going to be a surgeon.  Macrosurgery is the 102 class.  That’s a little known fact — literally!   For fantasy purposes, just think, now you have more room on your DL.  You’re welcome.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Beachy – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 11 Ks.  That’s one for the Brandon Beachy Memoirs.  Now if only he’d stop looking up his cousin’s dress.

Dan Uggla – 1-for-4 with his 10th home run.  I’ll take bets that he gets to 25 home runs, but not that he gets to .230.  Anyone want some action?  I’m not talking betting action.  Come here and sit on Uncle Grey’s lap.

Jose Bautista – Hit his 22nd home run.  See, my gentle prodding of his miserable June paid off for his owners.  Now I will return to my Bautista dormancy where I am an RA.

Jo-Jo Reyes – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  He’s such a peg boy!

Shaun Marcum – Left the game after reaggravating his hip and his owners.  He says he’ll be fine for his next start.  We’ll see.  Or not.  Your choice.

Travis Wood – Sent down to Triple-A.  All they have to do is send down Votto and Bruce and their AAA club will be the better team.

Joel Hanrahan – Got his 20th save yesterday, which is a feat because he pitches for the Pirates.  It usually takes until end of August before they have 20 saves as a team.  Hanrahanananananan’s ERA/WHIP is 1.31/0.96 and he has 30 Ks in 34 IP.   Sorry, Mr. Peralta, but you’re looking at the best reliever named Joel in the majors!

Kevin Correia – Got his 9th win of the year – making him the most successful Pirate this year outside of the Somali coast.

Neftali Feliz – 2/3 IP, 4 ER and his 4th blown save.  Now has 19 Ks to 15 walks in 28 innings.  He’s not getting replaced any time soon, but something is up with him.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see another DL stint from him this summer.

Adrian Gonzalez – Hitting .359 on the year and he went 4-for-4 against his old team.  Who’s your Padre, San Diego!?

Clayton Richard – 5 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks in Fenway.  That’s exactly what Vegas projected for Richard.  Oh, wait, they projected 1 inning, 5 runs, 10 baserunners.

Albert Pujols – Love this ESPN title yesterday, “Pujols Feels Healthy Aside From Fracture.”  Yeah, and Willie McGee felt beautiful except for his face.

Jorge Posada – Hit his 7th home run– Psych!  I’m not talking about him because then I’ll gonna get inundated with catcher questions.  “No, thank you,” says Grey as he splashes on his Drakkar.

Freddy Garcia – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Here’s something bonkers.  On Rudy’s AL-Only team, his staff is Hellickson, Hughes, Garcia, Coke, Britton, Fister and Baker.  Has a 3.58 ERA / 1.27 WHIP.  If you drafted that staff in the beginning of the year with high hopes, I’d say you were just high.  Goes to show you, no one knows anything, William Goldman.

Torii Hunter – Double I left yesterday’s game after crashing into the wall.  He has bruised ribs.  The wall has a strained oblique.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Now has a 1.73 ERA.  Last year Colby Lewis returned from Japan with great results.  This year it’s Vogelsong.  Konichiwa, Fausto Carmona!

Ty Wigginton – On Monday morning, I said Wigginton hit a home run on Sunday and now his over/under for the week is 3.  Yesterday, he hit two home runs.  Still taking the under?

Erik Bedard – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I have no doubts of his ability if he stays healthy.  However, that ‘if’ is the size of the car that was used to take Shirley Hemphill and Fred Berry to the set.

Jonny Gomes – Hit a home run yesterday.  That’s all you need to know.  He gets about as crazy hot as Wigginton when he’s going right.  Has 9 homers now.  Might have 16 before he goes cold again.  I added him in any daily leagues where I could (can’t trust him to play every day for weekly leagues).

Chris Heisey – 3-for-5, 4 runs, 5 RBIs and 3 home runs as he became the 207th player this year to hit 3 homers in a game.  Only a slight exaggeration.  Before this game, he was one for the last week.  I really like Heisey, but in Dusty Baker’s book titled, “OBP Stands For Oh B**** Please,” his 3rd chapter is, “Why Play Three Outfielders When Five Will Do?” says all you need to know about Hesiey.  So unless Dusty goes with a short center fielder it’s hard to own Heisey outside of deep daily leagues where you can move him in and out of the lineup.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Sonavabench!

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks in Metco.  After the game, Gio said he’d love to pitch for the Mets one day or against them every day.

Jake Peavy – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  But at least he wasn’t injured.  Baby steps, Bob, baby steps.

Ian Kennedy – 6 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Don’t need to see the Zapruder film of all of Kennedy starts to know that he’s not a 2.90 ERA pitcher.  He shouldn’t completely collapse, but c’mon.

Ted Lilly – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks.  One of the more disappointing guys we own.  In Dodgers Stadium, this guy should have a 3.20-ish ERA.  Then he gets 8 Ks and only walks one yesterday, which isn’t bad…Ugh, he’s pretty unstartable right now.  Lilly, you’ve gilded me for the last time!

Matt Kemp – 3-for-3 and he’s already at 20/20.  Now I see what Rihanna saw in him.  He’s damn sexy!

Jonathan Broxton – Mattingly said Broxton will be the loser when he returns.  Oops, Freudian slip!  Mattingly must be looking through the rear view mirror to see the Broxton of the 1st half of 2010.  I guess it’s true — objects in the rear view mirror are better Closers than they appear.

Can we stop talking about how running into the catcher is “not” part of baseball? It’s getting really old and stupidity is bleeding from every multimedia channel. If Matt Treanor, or Misty May for that matter, got run over and injured this would be a blip on the radar for baseball. All I can say is I can’t wait until the Marlins and Giants play again and settle their differences with a good ol’ donnybrook. Baseball settles its differences between the lines, and all this talk about how one of the prodigal sons of baseball got hurt is a snooze fest. I am old school when watching this game.  If you don’t want to get hit, don’t stand on the tracks when the train is coming through. Okay, rant over. There seems to be lots of speculation going on in the game right now. Who will be buyers and who will be sellers. This has some rippling effects on fantasy as guys switch leagues and make AL/NL only leagues scramble for FAAB bucks. Should be a fun next month of real baseball and hope that it relates well to fake baseball. Good luck on this week’s fantasy endeavors. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/8
Danny Duffy vs. TOR – Villanueva
Paul Maholm vs. ARI – Duke
Josh Outman @BAL- Britton

6/9
Josh Collmenter @Pit – Karstens
Jonathon Niese @ Mil – Gallardo
Derek Holland @ Min – Blackburn

6/10
Dillon Gee @ PIT – Morton
Jason Marquis @ SD – Latos
Ryan Vogelsong vs. CIN – Wood

Rick Porcello (@Tex vs. Harrison, Sea vs. Hernandez) Has gotten numbers to look healthier against bad hitting teams, now re-read who he is playing this week. Strugglin’ against LH, but away ERA is a cozy 2.39.

Joel Pineiro (TB vs. Price, KC vs. O’Sullivan) Still gunning for that milestone win. K’s are nonexistent basically. Nothing cures offensive ills better than a good ol’ swig of O’Sullivans.

Freddy Garcia (Bos vs. Lester, Cle vs. Tomlin) Anyone remember Freddy from the old Yankee stadium who used to bang on his pot and have funny limericks on a sign? Yeah, this isn’t him. WHIP is still bad, but lineup chases all evil flying monkeys away.

Mike Leake (CHC vs. Lopez, @SF vs. Sanchez) Not for nothing, but wasn’t he Kelly Leake’s dad in the Bad News Bears? Cincy’s lineup makes him look better. Going to win a lot of 8-6 type ballgames.

Clayton Richard (Col vs. Mortensen, Was vs. Lannan) Low end 2 starts for the front man of the new “Petco Shop Boys.“ ERA at home is far superior. Rinse and repeat for next guy.

Tim Stauffer (Col vs. Jimenez, Was vs. Zimmermann) East end boys and west end girls. Sorry have that song stuck in my head now. Run support is awful. I like Richard’s 2 opposing pitchers better.

Javier Vazquez (Mil vs. Greinke, Ari vs. Kennedy) He is about as good at fantasy as Wilt Chamberlain was at monogamy. K potential is there….somewhere. Look closer it’s wearing a red striped wool hat, oh my bad I lost track of where we were.

Matt Harrison (Det vs. Porcello, @Min vs. Swarzak) Blisters be gone. Was good to start year, then had to change the sheets. Last 4 starts are back on the Matt Foley path. Away ERA at 2.53. Hope the medication he got from Washington isn’t habit forming.

Jon Garland (@Phi vs. Oswalt, @Col vs. Jimenez) Ugh and Yikes. Nice to see ya, Jon. See you in a week when you’re actually semi-rosterable. Bottom of barrel, bars closing, grab any girl situation here.

Felipe Paulino (Tor vs. Morrow, @Ana vs. Santana) My odd ball of the week. I had some preseason love for him in Colorado, fail. Change of scenery has so far has been mmm-ok. If your digging this deep you prolly need a shovel and some lime.