Fantasy Baseball Advice

Unlike our last team, Rudy and I co-drafted this team.  So for every bad pick, Rudy and I have someone to blame.  Neither will take it personal.  We managed to work Elijah Dukes onto this team, who’s a total dwyck.  This is a 20 team, 5×5, roto league and still is, so we have more arms than Bruce Willis.  Get well soon, Guru!  The team breaks down like this:  Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, 3 Outfielders, Utility, 2 SPs, 2 RPs, 3 Ps and a 4 man bench.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball team and some thoughts from the draft:

Round 1 – Ryan Braun – We skipped A-Rod and Utley.  Our thought process went like this.  With only one position player for each position, 3 outfielders and one utility man, we figured outfielders would make up the majority of the teams’ Utility spots and might even end up in the bench spots.  So you’re looking at drafting about 100 outfielders vs. 20 3rd basemen, 20 2nd basemen, etc.  Since there was no MI or CI, we figured there wouldn’t be many teams that had more than one 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, etc. before we drafted one.

Round 2 – Lance Berkman – It was between him and Kendry Morales.  We decided to go with a guy who we felt was slightly more boring, but safer.  Safer helps when there’s absolutely no one on waivers.

Round 3/4 – Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee – We also figured there would be a lot of pitchers drafted, since each team needed at least 5 starters.  In a 20 team league, two top starters, as we have, should easily get us a near-top finish in 3 of 5 pitching categories.  (WHIP, ERA and Ks.  There’s no accounting for Wins, but we should do okay there too.)  Now we just needed to take a few flier starters later on.

Round 5 – Gordon Beckham – This is Rudy and I on IM while drafting.  Me, “C’mon, let’s take some upside!”  Him, “You and your upside.  We need safe guys who will produce.”  Me, “Our team looks like a contender… In 2006.  We need upside!”  Him, “You want Beckham?”  Me, “Please.”

Round 6 – Johnny Damon – Hold the above dialogue about Gordon Beckham in the mirror.

Round 12 – Alcides Escobar – Rudy and I both tend to punt shortstop (if we don’t get Hanley) and try to get steals from our shorstop later on.  If I remember correctly, we had Everth Cabrera and Alcides to choose from and we needed steals.  Alcides seems more likely to hit at the top of the order for more ABs than EverCab.  Honestly, these guys are such tomato-tomahto at this point, in another draft tomorrow I might go with EverCab.  To read further, Alcides Escobar sleeper post.

Round 13 – Chase Headley – I tried for Snider, but Rudy wasn’t having it.  Rudy tried for Conor Jackson; I wasn’t having it.  We settled for Headley.  If Headley were on any team other than the Padres, he would’ve received his own sleeper post.  Then again, maybe he has a sleeper post and I’ve forgotten.  Damn, Headley, you inspire excitement!

Round 14 – Kelly Johnson – He’ll be solid on Runs, fair on average, hit 15 homers and 10 steals.  Explain to me how Yunel’s better than him one hundred picks earlier.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *rests head in hand, taps finger, yawns*  Okay, then.

Round 15 – Casey McGehee – Least favorite pick of the draft.  I really think McGehee ends up back on the bench or in a utility role for the Brewers.  I don’t see him approaching last year’s numbers.  I think Gamel, who might not even start the year with the Brewers, will outproduce McGehee on the year.  Anyway, it was the 283rd pick of the draft and we needed some flexibility.

Round 16 – Clayton Richard – A Padres pitcher with a near 7 K/9 and projected to have a 4 ERA at pick 318?  No problem there for me.

Round 17 – Elijah Dukes – Some other guys taken this round were:  Jeff Weaver, Mike Adams, Chris Getz, Pineiro, Cahill, Maicer Izturis and Luke Scott.  To answer your question, no Chumlee wasn’t drafting for the guy who took Weaver.  That was autodrafted.  The rest of those guys I believe were present.  I always preach not to take bench hitters, but that’s for 10 team, 12 team… 14 team… Maybe in 16 team leagues… In a 20 team league, it’s tumbleweeds on waivers.

Round 19 – Jeff Clement – A’la Buddy from Cake Boss, “Now that’s how you punt catcher!”

Round 20 – Gaby Sanchez – We were looking at Kris Medlen and Carlos Santana but both were scooped right before our pick.  As for Gaby, he (she?) is an upside pick that is at the do or die stage of his (her?) career.  If he (she?) does, this could be our best value pick.

Overall – When we ran the numbers, we’re in a three-way first place tie in the preseason standings with 131 Points.  We didn’t necessarily go into the draft wanting to dominate pitching vs. hitting, but Rudy ran the Point Shares for the league and there were much better values for pitching.  To come out of a 20-team league with two of the top 10 pitchers in baseball (F-Her and Cliff Lee) is a huge advantage — one that would be impossible to attain with just 2 hitters.  Plus, we got Filthy Sanchez, a Johnson and Headley. What’s not to love?

The duality of man:

It’s all Peaches and Herb when you can get the best out of both worlds. Well, fantasy baseball wise that’s either “Martin Prado” good or “Jerry Hairston” awkward. For fantasy pitching, a guy doesn’t necessarily become more draftable based on dual position, but I’m here to “learn” you something about spot starting from the RP spot. I once heard that relief pitching is an art form. It looks easy, but hey, not everyone can paint. Hell, I color way outside the lines.  Here is a list of strapping young lads that can contribute from the depths of your roster by chucking the ball and having both SP/RP eligibility:

Robinson Tejada – ( 29 relief appearances/ 6 sp)
No joke — I heard his dad’s name is actually Miguel Cano. Here is a guy that intrigues me to no end. High K rate, low HR’s allowed (4 in 73 innings). KC may stretch him out to be a number 5. Beware of a high walk rate and a big jump in innings but he can contribute. Proj: 8 wins 4.05 era 125 K’s in 120 innings

Brett Myers – ( 8rp/10 sp)
Huge risk/reward with his change of battery mates…wink. Will only be 30 by year’s end, playing for a multi-yr deal, definite rotation spot. To me, he has all the opportunity sitting in front of him. Decent in-season fill or late round flyer. Proj: 10 wins 4.2 era 145 K’s

Kenshin Kawakami – ( 7 rp/ 25 sp)
Was cruising along and then Hudson went all Moscow and came back from the DL. Should enter the spring with a rotation spot. Otherwise, it’s to the pen to form the dynamic Asian dance team, Ken-N-Tak. Not a huge K potential and low ERA promise. You could do worse for a 5th starter. Proj: 10 wins 3.89 era 125 K’s

Justin Masterson – (26rp/16sp)
Former Sox spec goes to the head of the class — Too bad it’s in remedial English. Huge K potential (think a K/inning), reminds me a lot of a RH Jonathan Sanchez. Legitimate stuff — has potential to be a future number 3. Innings shouldn’t be a worry. Will have every chance to fail for a 90 loss team. End of draft sleeper. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Clayton Richard – ( 12rp/ 26sp)
He is another top spec that goes into the fire of a losing organization. Great potential to pitch for a budding rotation. Not a huge K guy and he will walk his share. Plays in an ERA friendly environment and has been getting a pretty good ride in the pre-draft hype machine. I‘d buy that for a dollar. Great match up guy for home starts. Proj: 7 wins 3.90 era 100 K’s

Aaron Laffey – ( 6rp/13sp)
Personally, I love this guy. Same b-day as me and same last name as the navy ship my grandfather was on in WWII. But anywho — to me, he is the “Clayton Richard” of the AL and has a chance to shine… but for a bad team. Not a huge peripheral help guy, walks a ton, no K’s. Could be a sneaky source of wins for Cleveland. Just needs to stop walking the ballpark. Proj: 9 wins 4.30 era 110 k’s

Derek Holland – (12rp/21sp)
Texas has a potent offense: this, we know. Here is a guy to do the opposite of Richard: start on the road. Has a great arsenal of pitches, got worn down by year’s end. ERA should drop from above 6 (or I would hope). Decent K/9 and needs to work on his third pitch. If the team is away, Holland should play. Proj: 9 wins 4.35 era 125 K’s

Brian Duensing – ( 15rp/9sp)
Great spot guy late last year. If he misses a rotation spot, he joins (in my opinion) the best bullpen in baseball. Not a huge K threat, but misses bats. A long relief candidate who can snipe a few victories. Expect great peripherals, low ERA. Proj: 9 wins 3.75 era 90 K’s

Brandon Morrow – ( 16rp/10sp)
Holy potential! I have been waiting for him for 2 years to do something. He now gets a chance in a very young rotation in Toronto, albeit in the toughest division in baseball. Health and stamina are an issue (diabetic). Has huge K and low ERA potential. A must grab for last round fodder or for “cause I told you so” bragging rights. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Francisco Liriano – (5rp/24sp)
This guy was awful a year removed from TJ surgery and I think he actually pitched with Tommy John’s arm. Another year may do him good. He will struggle with command and is spotty when runners are on base. Consistent arm angle a must. I’m avoiding him at all costs unless I can get him late — like on the waiver wire after the draft. Buyer beware but great K potential from the once most hyped SP since Tim Leary. Projections found at Grey’s Liriano Sleeper post.

Others to think about that qualify: Jamie Moyer(5rp/25sp), Bobby Parnell(60rp/8sp), Tom Gorzellany(15rp/7sp)

Four months ago, a torn tendon behind his right knee shut Jose Reyes down for the entire season.  That’s the good news.  In an attempt to return to a team that has been out of the playoff picture since July, Reyes tore his hamstring this week as he ran the bases.  His season is finally, completely, officially over.  Sure, it wouldn’t been nice to see him steal 65 bases and for the Mets to win 25 and a half games in the last three days of the season, but maybe trying to get him back for the last weekend of the season wasn’t the best idea.  Now his 2010 is going to be of the “Is he finally healthy?” variety rather than the “He’s finally healthy” variety.  Obviously more will be known as we get closer to next season.  I’m sure February Grey is preparing his status report as we speak.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 16 Ks.  Probably should’ve been the lead today, but I felt like ranting on the Mets.  You’ll forgive me.  Take out your Benihana Buddhas and pray that next March your leaguemates look at Nolasco’s 5.06 ERA and pass on him.   Then flip a shrimp tail into your hat.

Brendan Donnelly – Got the save by picking off a runner.  Leo Nunez probably would’ve been fine if it wasn’t for some porous defense behind him.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Extremely hard to argue with the season Vazquez had.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you’d be screaming at a bunch of stats on a piece of paper and that’s just silly.

Charlie Morton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  A four run lead is obviously more comfortable than an 11-1 lead that John Russell yanked Zach Duke from the other day.  When you figure it out, let me know because I’m baffled.

Ryan Doumit – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 Runs and a HR yesterday in the nightcap.  His nightcap had stripes and a little fuzzy ball on the end of it.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Ricciardi can now trade Halladay for the Taj Mahal.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.   On July 28th, he had a 5.17 ERA.  He now has a 3.84.  August and September, he had a combined 2.00 ERA.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with a steal yesterday.  He has 8 homers and 10 steals in 38 games.  Charades time!  I’m making a tree shape… Has fronds… Palm! Right!  Sideshow Bob! No, wait a second.  I’m making a diving motion near the palm tree… We’re in a desert…  Mirage! Yes!  That’s Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is the Mirage casino where Siegfried and Roy used to perform? No.  Forget it.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Wow, were there any poor pitching performances yesterday?  (This is what you get when teams don’t play their first-stringers.  This is also why H2H is kinda lacking.)

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ah, yes.  There’s a poor performance.  Mussina always said Pavano’s got no heart.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-3 as he hit his 31st homer yesterday.  He has an outside chance at .300.  Incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5 with a homer.  He has 270 at-bats, 13 homers and 16 steals.  In 300 at-bats, Beltran has 10 homers and 11 steals.

Hiroki Kuroda – Scratched from Saturday’s start.  Kershaw will fill in for him.  Should be the Rockies B lineup, may not be a bad start to gamble on.

Corey Hart – Probably done for the year with two fractured fingers.  No word if he hurt himself by bumping into something while wearing his stupid sunglasses at night.

Casey McGehee – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  He has 16 homers in 345 at-bats.  He’ll have 2nd base eligibility next year.  Cust kayin’.

B.J. Upton – Two steals yesterday.  No one’s going to argue that the .238 average is a travesty, but he has 10 homers and 41 steals in only 140 games.  I’m buying for next year.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 0 ER.  C’mon, you’re digging the HodgePadres just a bit, right?

Brad Penny – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  When I say NL, you say West.  NL… West… NL… West…  You got it.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Ah, well, here’s to him being a sleeper again next year I guess.

Adam Moore – Hit his first homer of his career.  He’s considered by many as the Mariners catcher of the future.  So that means he’ll diddle himself in the minors for three years, get called up, be given no real opportunity then get sent away in a deal with the Pirates for some futility infielder.

Jamie Moyer – Out for the season/playoffs with torn muscles in his groin and abdomen.  I told you to let the kids move the sofa!

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Talk about someone who fantasy owners will have no idea what to do with next year.

J.R. Towles – 2 HRs yesterday.  About 18 months too late for most.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  As I was skimming the boxscores to do this roundup, I saw F. Carmona and I was like, “You got that right ESPN!”

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.