Fantasy Baseball Advice

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

Clayton Kershaw has more Ks than innings.  Call me a K whore all you want, but that alone is enough for me to get excited about Kershaw in 2010.  Do I need to say more?  Probably not, but I will.  He’ll be 22 in March of 2010.  A 21-year-old who threw a season of a sub-3 ERA season in 170 innings.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, right?  Yeah, they are.  For a long time I’ve been wavering between Kershaw and Max Scherzer.  Well, I’m ready to choose one now.  They’re both young.  (Though Kershaw’s almost four years younger.)  They both strike out hitters more than a batter per inning.  (Though Kershaw’s a bit better this year.)  One sounds like a Brit, one sounds like a Nazi.  In the morning, they both go to the local mall and walk with the seniors.  Wait, I’m misreading my notes.  They walk a lot of batters, not bitties.  Kershaw’s walk rate was actually worse than Scherzer.  So why am I choosing Kershaw?  The Dodgers limited his innings towards the end of the year and the Diamondbacks abused poor Scherzer.  In 2008, Scherzer threw 109 innings between the majors and minors.  In 2009, he threw 164.  That’s a pretty significant jump.  Now I’m not saying I’d keep Kershaw over a known hitter commodity, but I would consider keeping him for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  Definitely over Scherzer.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Psyche!  Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment.  Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell.  Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday.  As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

Matt Wieters – .362/.425/.511 in September.  Just wanted to get the hype going early.  Carry on.

Rajai Davis – Sure, steals don’t have a face.  But, if they did, they’d look a lot like Rajai Davis.  Chances are if you own him, you have him on the very cheap.  A cheap guy that could get you 50 steals in 2010?  Where do I sign up?  (I can’t wait until someone finds us who Googles:  Where do I sign up? + cheap Nazi bitties)

Justin Morneau has a stress fracture in his lower back.  Joe Mauer missed a month of the season with back pains.  I understand the Twins are a small market team with fiduciary concerns, but it might be a good investment to provide firmer mattresses for the team.  Punto can continue to sleep on the couch, if you like.  Morneau will be out for the season.  In non-keepers, you can drop him.  Cuddyer will start at 1st; he hit a homer yesterday.  Since Morneau was hitting .201 Post-All-Star Break, this isn’t the worst news for you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes -  If he were on the Phillies, he’d be hailed as having one of the greatest seasons a closer has ever had.  But when you’re the closer for The Town that Bobby Grich Built, you need to save at least 60 games with a 2 ERA.  41 saves and a 4 ERA just ain’t going to cut it.  Scioscia’s a tinkerer — Howie Kendrick’s hot…  Okay, we’re going to start Maicer Izturis! — So the latest is that Fuentes could lose saves to Kevin Jepsen.  I don’t think Jepsen will collect more than a few, but if you’re in a tight race for saves, you may want to grab him.

Reid Brignac – 4-for-4, HR and 3 RBIs yesterday with his first start in a week.  It would be wise for the Rays to give Brignac at-bats.  Though teams aren’t always wise.

Matt Wieters - 1-for-3, batting .265 on the year with 5 homers.  February Grey emailed me this, “I’m preparing Wieters to Posey comparisons.”

Adam Lind – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  In the preseason top 80 outfielders post, I said, “Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I also harped on him in April telling everyone to grab him.  Next year, there will be comparisons of Wieters for 2010 to Lind in 2009.  Trust me, when a big time prospect fails, I’m all over them.  Ask the People Against the Fantasy Ownership of Alex Gordon.

Jason Frasor – 1 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  Well, that’s one way to get Downs put back in the closer role.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Has a near 2 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  Yup.

Jay Bruce – Returns from the DL.  I’m going to say Jay Bruce is the best outfielder in the history of the world.  And I’d be lying.  Jay Bruce is perhaps the most underperforming outfielder in the history of 2009.  That’s closer to the truth.  Jay Bruce can not help you whatsoever.  That’s lying again.  Jay Bruce might be able to give some slight value in deep leagues.  Yes, that sounds about right.

Brandon Phillips – HR yesterday.  Now has three straight 20/20 seasons.  Cust kayin’.

Brett Tomko – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Whatever Tomko’s stats are smoking it’s probably not legal.

Cliff Pennington – 2-for-4, and hitting near .450 in the last week.  Plus, his name sounds like he wears plaid trousers.

Ryan Dempster – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Has given up 4 earned runs in every other start for almost a month now.  If I were a betting man, I might say 6 IP, 4 ER vs. the Cards for his next start.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5, one steal.  He hit a huge dip over the weekend, going 1-for-11, but hopefully that was just a matter of playing in Petco.  No one wants to provide offense in Petco, it’s just the way it is.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  I’m still undecided, but I might draft Lincecum in the first round next year just to see how it feels to own him.

Ricky Nolasco – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’s nice and all to have a solid K to walk ratio, but walk someone if it’s going to help you avoid giving up 7 earned runs!

Clayton Kershaw – Out at least 10 more days.  He originally hurt himself shagging flies.  Last person to hurt themselves like that was Jenna Jameson.

Carlos Pena is out for the remainder of the season according to the St. Petersburg Times.  My question is, why is a Russian newspaper reporting this?  Guess my over under of 41 homers for Pena is gonna end just under at 39.  One of these years, he’s going to have one of those lucky seasons and hit for .280 and everyone… My brain just tapped me on my shoulder and reminded me Pena had one of those seasons, it was in 2007.  Oh, brain.  What would I ever do without you?  So now that Pena’s done, you’re going to need to grab some power — try Drew Stubbs — he’s out of his flippin’ mind.  I keed.  I’d try Andy Marte, Casey McGehee, Carlos Guillen, Mora or Juan Uribe, in that order.  Marte will kill you on average though, so he’ll fit perfectly into Pena’s vacated spot.  And, yes, I just sorta-kinda recommended Juan Uribe.  No diggity!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Clayton Kershaw – Will miss a start with a bruised shoulder.  Probably could’ve went if the Dodgers needed him to.  Get used to news like this.  Pitchers will be contracting all sorts of minor ailments in the last few weeks to miss starts as clubs try to keep their innings in check.

J.A. Happ – Out with an oblique strain.  See 1/8 of an inch above for exact reason why he’s out.

Troy Tulowitzki – Aggravated his back.  (That’s the last time he says he likes his torso better.)  This is the opposite of the Kershaw news.  Because the Rockies need Tulo, he’ll probably return to the lineup as soon as possible.  Think two days.  Now hope the power of positive thinking works.

Brett Gardner – Will split time in center with Melky Cabrera. (You ever own Melky, look at his name in your lineup, see M. Cabrera and think to yourself, “I have Miguel Cabrera playing outfield?  That’s awesome!”  Maybe it’s a symptom of having too many teams.)

Phil Hughes – Won his 6th game and now has a 3.07 ERA on the year.  Hopefully, he’ll be more successful in his transition back to a starter than Joba.

Chris Carpenter – 1 hit shutout with 10 Ks.  He has a 2.16 ERA on the year with 16 wins.  His Ks are low, but if he can get his ERA under 2, it’ll be hard to deny him another Cy Young.

Kyle Lohse – Returns to the rotation on Saturday and gives Boggs the bullpen bump (alliteration in lieu of wit).

B.J. Upton – Returned from his ankle injury and picked up right where he left off with an 0-for-2 while hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

Vicente Padilla/Brad Penny – 6 IP, 2 ER and 7 IP, 2 ER, respectively.  And you wonder why I like NL pitchers?

Juan Uribe – 2 HRs and 5 RBIs.  He’s a terrible hitter, but even terrible hitters get hot.  I know, that sounds like winning copy from the desk of Pete Campbell.

Jeff Manship – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  The Manship has landed and it’s filled with prawns yawns.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 1 ER.  From perfection to mediocrity to quality start vs. the Red Sox.  Don’t try and figure him out, it’ll make you mad… (…men reference two lines above.  So I finally rented the first season of Mad Men.  Hmm… maybe I listened to too much of the hype machine, but I was expecting a The Wire-type masterpiece.  It left me wanting something more… Maybe a cigarette.  Oh, and if you want to discuss the show in the comments, remember I’ve only seen the first season.  Respect the guy who just rented Season 2.)

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2-for-4 as he stole his 60th base yesterday.  FYI, Jacoby Ellsbury is the first player to steal 60 bases with a law firm name, since Shorty Fuller of the 1890 St. Louis Browns.  I got Shorty Fuller on retainer, see.

Raul Ibanez – HR yesterday.  Look who decided to wake up from his two month slumber.

Kyle Davies – 5 IP, 11 baserunners, only one K and he gave up a homer.  Guess how many earned runs he gave up.  One!  How is that even mathematically possible?  I’ll need to ask someone at Elias Sports Bureau or Jayson Stark.

Billy Butler – 2 HRs yesterday.  I really want him to tank in September so he’s a “sleeper” next year.  (Sorry for the toolbag quotes around sleeper, but he won’t be a sleeper sleeper.  Like an actual player who no one knows about next year, because I have a feeling The ESPN Hindsighter and every other Tom, Dick and Karabell will be touting him.  So he’ll be a sleeper in the sense everyone says he’s a sleeper, so he no longer is.  Then again, I thought people would jump on the Mark Reynolds bandwagon and no one did.)

Krispie Young – You probably hate him if you owned him earlier in the year, but he’s out of Coors and is still hitting homers.  After three homers on Sunday, he hit another one yesterday.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 5 baserunners, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  Now has five straight solid starts and a 3.12 ERA on the year.  Under.  Rated.

Derrek Lee – Since his birth of his son, he’s hit 4 homers, hitting his 30th and 31st homer yesterday.  If only Lee were married to Octo-Mom.

Drew Stubbs will replace Willy T.  (<–Sounds like characters from a blaxploitation film.  And neither are African-American.  Weird!)  Stubbs might get the shaft vs. righties but he can be baadasssss for speed.  Drew Stubbs was selected a few picks before Travis Snider in the first round of the 2006 draft.  Not for his power… No, he won’t have much of that.  Not for his Ks either, but he may have a lot of those.  In Triple-A, he had 104 Ks in 107 games.  In. Triple. A.  That’s not a great sign.  If you need speed, SAGNOF!, but Stubbs might come as an average liability.  In one league, I dropped Snider (that was quick) for Stubbs, because I need speed more than power in that league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joey Votto – Left with blurry vision.  Will be evaluated today.  Votto’s teammates could really mess with him by all wearing those novelty t-shirts that says, “1 Tequila, 2 Tequila, 3 Tequila, Floor,” with the blurry type.

Johnny Cueto – Heads to the Disgraceful List with a plus-10.00 ERA in the 2nd half.  I’m sure Cueto’s owners wish he were on the DL for the last two months.  If you were having any problems pulling the trigger on dropping him, the Reds took care of that for you.  I’ll see you next March, Cueto, fairly well ’til then.

Hiroki Kuroda – Heads to the DL with a concussion. (Pun point for Grey.)  Jeff Weaver or Vicente Padilla will fill in for him.  Blech for the Blue.

John Smoltz – Smoltz signs with the Cards.  I wouldn’t pick him up outside of NL-Only leagues.  I don’t think he’ll suddenly be worthwhile just moving back to the NL.  Maybe some matchups potential.  But that’s about it.  I know Chi-Ali said, “Age ain’t nothing but a number,” but Chi-Ali’s in jail for murder, so let’s assume he doesn’t own Smoltz either.

Matt LaPorta – Should’ve been called up two months ago.  Shoot, he shouldn’t have been down in the minors to begin with.  If someone can figure out what Eric Wedge was doing in Crazy Town for the last few months, let us know.  In Triple-A, Matt LaPorta had 41 walks to only 54 Ks.  He had 17 homers in 92 games and a near .400 OBP.  I’d grab LaPorta if I needed some pop.  I like Snider a bit better for UTIL pop, but LaPorta has better eligibility.  They’re kinda tomato-tomahto.

Carlos Quentin – HRs in back-to-back games.  He’s capable of 12 homers the rest of the way.

Zach Greinke – 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks.  Since May 31st, Greinke has a 3.56 ERA.  Cust kayin’.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.  Greinke, I see your bid for a Cy Young and I raise you my own.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 2 Hits, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  A pitcher on the phone with his agent, “I wanna frickin’ face a pitcher three times a game!  I wanna face frickin’ Augie Ojeda three times a game!  Rusty Ryal?  Ryal?  What’s that, Gaelic?  I wanna face Rusty Irishman!”  Agent, “I understand, Mr. Halladay.  You have to talk to J.P.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Now up to 2.74 ERA on the year.  It sure is a slow climb to a 3.25 ERA.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Hey, there’s 1st half Jered Weaver again!  Hey, 1st half Jered Weaver, say hello to your mother for me.

Carlos Guillen – HR yesterday and three in the last seven games while batting .333.  I’m no fan of Guillen, but he’s batting in the middle of the order and he’s seeing the ball well (unlike Votto).

Carlos Gonzalez – Another homer yesterday.  This is getting ridiculous.  Oh, and Barmes hit his 20th.

Clay Buchholz – 6 IP, 1 ER.  It was about three starts ago I said I’d own Buchholz.  Since then, he’s under a 1.50 ERA.

Pat Burrell – Another homer.  Now has 8 more left in his bat.

B.J. Upton – Back-to-back games with homers.  I speak for all his owners when I say, “It’s about time.”

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Sure, it was vs. Giants, but I’ve been saying since mid-July I actually like Arroyo in the 2nd half.

Chipper Jones – The Braves scored 15 runs; Chipper went 0-for-3 with 1 Run.  Ticker tease!

Mat Latos – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  The Cubs aren’t great average-wise vs. righties, they were in Petco… Well, this should end Latos’s time on anyone’s team.  Sorry, these rookie pitchers never end well.

Clayton Kershaw – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  How many pitches do you think he threw in under 4 innings?  If I gave you the over/under of 95, which way would you go?  I’d love to see an extra inning game between the D’Backs and the Dodgers, where both bullpens were emptied, and they were forced to throw Kershaw and Scherzer.  It’s immediately sudden death because neither pitcher may go more than three innings.

Bill Wagner – He’s a middle reliever barring a trade or K-Rod getting into the same subway as Brian Bruney.  There’s lots of middle relievers I’d own before Wagner.

Angel Pagan – Was one of three players nominated by the Mets for the Henry Aaron Award, the award given to the top offensive player of each league.  I guess there’s no Tommy Aaron Award.

Bill Hall – Acquired by the Mariners.  They’re just trying to make Beltre seem more appealing.  I know that trick!  You act like a complete imbecile around your girlfriend’s sister, then when you meet the parents they have severely low expectations of you, having heard stories from the sister.  Then you act normal, and the parents are like, “Hey, he’s not that bad.  He used utensils!”  And it gets the parents thinking your girlfriend’s sister is just jealous.  What?  Am I the only one that does this?