Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

During our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Clay Buchholz – This is a continuation of the last tier on the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  This tier ends at Strasburg.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  Some might be confused by Cueto ranking before Buchholz, so let’s compare those two.  As linguists intended it, we’ll go B before C.  In 2009, K/9 — 6.65 vs. 6.93, BB/9 — 3.52 vs. 3.20, 25 years old vs. 23 years old, 190 2/3 career MLB innings vs. 345 1/3 IP.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155

42. Ervin Santana – Ervin’s 2009 was similar to Scott Baker’s.  He came out of spring training with an arm injury, but, unlike Baker and Stella, Ervin never found his groove.  This late in drafts I’m willing to overlook Ervin’s Gorilla Ponson impersonation last year.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185

43. Neftali Feliz – Already went over my Neftali fantasy.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120 in 20 starts.

44. Jorge de la Rosa – His appearance in this tier is solely because of his Ks.  Don’t believe me?  Throw your computer out the window, there’s no talking to you.  And to think we were friends.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200

45. Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson, the future ace, is not without caveats in 2010.  Innings jump was big in 2009.  The reason why I’m willing to take a late flier on him instead of, say, Hanson is because Anderson will come much cheaper in drafts.  Second caveat, Anderson really only had two months where he looked like an ace.  Though those two months were in the 2nd half.  If Hughes is in the rotation, I would switch these two.  So, I would take a shot on Anderson late, but I’d also be aware of the risk.  2010 Projections:  10-11/3.70/1.27/165

46. Phil Hughes – Won’t know until spring training, but my guess is it will be Joba in the rotation and Phil Hughes as a top 20 middle reliever.  Even if Hughes gets the starting spot, I could see him being limited on a strict innings count.  2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130 in 130 innings.

47. Joba Chamberlain – About time the Yankees take the ignition lock breathalyzer off the steering wheel and let Joba take his arm out for a drive.  Or put him in middle relief.  As of post time, it’s not clear yet.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160

48. Stephen Strasburg – Already went over my Strasburg fantasy.  The reason why I have him after Feliz is because of the kid gloves the Nats are going to be using with him.  The reason why I have him above some known commodities is because if he somehow breaks camp with the Nats, you’ve won the draft lottery.  Right after the announcement, you’d be able to trade Strasburg for a tidy haul.  Say, Billy Butler.  Now twirl your mustache!  2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110

49. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Romero.  I call this tier, “Guys that I’m not drafting, but might pick up on waivers during the season if the opportunity presents itself and it probably will.”  When Edwin Jackson was traded, I said I might own him in the right circumstances.  I’m officially retracting that.  On closer inspection, I don’t want anything to do with him outside of matchups.  I was clouded by the thought of facing the Giants and Padres, but he was far too lucky last year.  I don’t think Edwin will be quite the 2nd half pitcher he was last year — 5.07 ERA — but I think that’s closer than the pitcher he was in the first half — 2.52 ERA.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him have completely ownable stretches, but overall meh.  2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140

50. Joe Blanton – I owned Blanton for a good stretch last year.  Looking at my active stats, in 81 2/3 innings, Blanton gave me 6 wins, 3.31/1.18/59.  Awesome, terrific, adjective, but Blanton’s a pitcher you get off waivers.  You don’t draft Joe Blanton.  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140

50 1/2. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATE:  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar having an MRI in the preseason is reason enough to ignore him.  Then throw in potential regression and it’s not worth the ulcer.  2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings

51. Scott Kazmir – The Angels are planning on Kazmir filling in Lackey’s spot in the rotation.  Injury risk — check!  Falling K-rate — check!  Overrated for fantasy — we have a winner for the crapfecta!  2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145

52. Derek Lowe – The days of being able to own Lowe from start to finish look to be over.  He’ll have matchups appeal here and there, but you don’t want to draft him.  2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100

53. J.A. Happ – Meh K-rate, high walk rate, bad home park, lucky BABIP, insane amount of men left on base… Mr. Caps Lock says, “HAPP WAS THE LUCKIEST PITCHER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES LAST YEAR.”  At some point it will Happen.  You don’t want to be there when it does.  2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155

54. Rick Porcello – A below 5 K-rate and a 45 inning bump from ‘08 secures his place in the Do Not Touch tier.  2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75

55. Daisuke Matsuzaka – I gave up on Dice-K after his unbelievable 2008.  And by unbelievable I mean improbable, not superb.  2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150

56. Joel Pineiro – I’d recommend you hire Gary Glitter as a babysitter before advising you to draft Pineiro.  2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90

57. Randy Wolf – One the hardest things about doing these rankings is going over guys that treated you so well last year then having to write about how you don’t want any part of them in the new season.  When Wolf was traded, I said, “In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155

58. Ricky Romero – To be totally honest, I almost put Romero in a tier with guys I would draft, but in the end, he’s not especially dominant, he’s in a tough division and he’s injury prone.  In an AL-Only league, I’d draft him, but in mixed leagues, I’d stay away.  2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155

59. Tim Hudson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Correia.  I call this tier, “Boring, but ownable.”  On one hand, Hudson’s a reliable vet with a mid-3 career ERA, while a little light on Ks.  On the other hand, Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery.  That brings with it risk similar to playing with your iPasties app near Carl Monday.  Face it, there’s really no sure² thing this late.  2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145

60. Kevin Correia – The first HodgePadre to make the starter rankings.  This goes without saying but it’s not going to be a fun year to watch the Padres.  Depressing, actually.  They should broadcast every game with Warren Zevon’s Keep Me In Your Heart playing in the background.  2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

Drew Stubbs will replace Willy T.  (<–Sounds like characters from a blaxploitation film.  And neither are African-American.  Weird!)  Stubbs might get the shaft vs. righties but he can be baadasssss for speed.  Drew Stubbs was selected a few picks before Travis Snider in the first round of the 2006 draft.  Not for his power… No, he won’t have much of that.  Not for his Ks either, but he may have a lot of those.  In Triple-A, he had 104 Ks in 107 games.  In. Triple. A.  That’s not a great sign.  If you need speed, SAGNOF!, but Stubbs might come as an average liability.  In one league, I dropped Snider (that was quick) for Stubbs, because I need speed more than power in that league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joey Votto – Left with blurry vision.  Will be evaluated today.  Votto’s teammates could really mess with him by all wearing those novelty t-shirts that says, “1 Tequila, 2 Tequila, 3 Tequila, Floor,” with the blurry type.

Johnny Cueto – Heads to the Disgraceful List with a plus-10.00 ERA in the 2nd half.  I’m sure Cueto’s owners wish he were on the DL for the last two months.  If you were having any problems pulling the trigger on dropping him, the Reds took care of that for you.  I’ll see you next March, Cueto, fairly well ’til then.

Hiroki Kuroda – Heads to the DL with a concussion. (Pun point for Grey.)  Jeff Weaver or Vicente Padilla will fill in for him.  Blech for the Blue.

John Smoltz – Smoltz signs with the Cards.  I wouldn’t pick him up outside of NL-Only leagues.  I don’t think he’ll suddenly be worthwhile just moving back to the NL.  Maybe some matchups potential.  But that’s about it.  I know Chi-Ali said, “Age ain’t nothing but a number,” but Chi-Ali’s in jail for murder, so let’s assume he doesn’t own Smoltz either.

Matt LaPorta – Should’ve been called up two months ago.  Shoot, he shouldn’t have been down in the minors to begin with.  If someone can figure out what Eric Wedge was doing in Crazy Town for the last few months, let us know.  In Triple-A, Matt LaPorta had 41 walks to only 54 Ks.  He had 17 homers in 92 games and a near .400 OBP.  I’d grab LaPorta if I needed some pop.  I like Snider a bit better for UTIL pop, but LaPorta has better eligibility.  They’re kinda tomato-tomahto.

Carlos Quentin – HRs in back-to-back games.  He’s capable of 12 homers the rest of the way.

Zach Greinke – 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks.  Since May 31st, Greinke has a 3.56 ERA.  Cust kayin’.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.  Greinke, I see your bid for a Cy Young and I raise you my own.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 2 Hits, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  A pitcher on the phone with his agent, “I wanna frickin’ face a pitcher three times a game!  I wanna face frickin’ Augie Ojeda three times a game!  Rusty Ryal?  Ryal?  What’s that, Gaelic?  I wanna face Rusty Irishman!”  Agent, “I understand, Mr. Halladay.  You have to talk to J.P.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Now up to 2.74 ERA on the year.  It sure is a slow climb to a 3.25 ERA.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Hey, there’s 1st half Jered Weaver again!  Hey, 1st half Jered Weaver, say hello to your mother for me.

Carlos Guillen – HR yesterday and three in the last seven games while batting .333.  I’m no fan of Guillen, but he’s batting in the middle of the order and he’s seeing the ball well (unlike Votto).

Carlos Gonzalez – Another homer yesterday.  This is getting ridiculous.  Oh, and Barmes hit his 20th.

Clay Buchholz – 6 IP, 1 ER.  It was about three starts ago I said I’d own Buchholz.  Since then, he’s under a 1.50 ERA.

Pat Burrell – Another homer.  Now has 8 more left in his bat.

B.J. Upton – Back-to-back games with homers.  I speak for all his owners when I say, “It’s about time.”

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Sure, it was vs. Giants, but I’ve been saying since mid-July I actually like Arroyo in the 2nd half.

Chipper Jones – The Braves scored 15 runs; Chipper went 0-for-3 with 1 Run.  Ticker tease!

Mat Latos – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  The Cubs aren’t great average-wise vs. righties, they were in Petco… Well, this should end Latos’s time on anyone’s team.  Sorry, these rookie pitchers never end well.

Clayton Kershaw – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  How many pitches do you think he threw in under 4 innings?  If I gave you the over/under of 95, which way would you go?  I’d love to see an extra inning game between the D’Backs and the Dodgers, where both bullpens were emptied, and they were forced to throw Kershaw and Scherzer.  It’s immediately sudden death because neither pitcher may go more than three innings.

Bill Wagner – He’s a middle reliever barring a trade or K-Rod getting into the same subway as Brian Bruney.  There’s lots of middle relievers I’d own before Wagner.

Angel Pagan – Was one of three players nominated by the Mets for the Henry Aaron Award, the award given to the top offensive player of each league.  I guess there’s no Tommy Aaron Award.

Bill Hall – Acquired by the Mariners.  They’re just trying to make Beltre seem more appealing.  I know that trick!  You act like a complete imbecile around your girlfriend’s sister, then when you meet the parents they have severely low expectations of you, having heard stories from the sister.  Then you act normal, and the parents are like, “Hey, he’s not that bad.  He used utensils!”  And it gets the parents thinking your girlfriend’s sister is just jealous.  What?  Am I the only one that does this?

The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.”  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.