Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Before we get to that, I want to clear up a potential misconception.  Donkey-corns are not the only closers I’ll draft for my 2009 fantasy team.  I’ll more than happily draft closers from the Brain Freeze category.  Cause, see, I’m a save vulture.  It is what it is.  I’ll take saves from anywhere, except probably from the $12 Salad category.  I think those guys are great.  I just don’t believe in paying for saves.  I said “probably” because at the right draft spot, everyone’s worth looking at it.  Some of these closing jobs aren’t finalized just yet.  That wouldn’t stop me from grabbing both guys if I had room and the price were right.  Just because everyone thinks Brandon Lyon should be the closer doesn’t mean Fernando Rodney has no place on a team until Leyland makes a formal announcement.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?  Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal.  No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate.  These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles.  Why are you following a donkey?  Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him.  Does the donkey talk?  Yes.  Yes, he does talk.  So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn.  The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves.  These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)
7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arrendondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
19. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw.  Brain freeze!  Make it stop!  Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
22. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
26. Huston Street/Manny Corpas, COL (Taylor Buchholz… As soon as the Rockies pick a closer, I’d move the guy up a bit.)
27. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
28. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
29. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Brandon Morrow, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Last night I took part in my third mock draft over at Mock Draft Central.  Going into this mock draft, I figured I’d try to draft a mock team to mock win.  Pretty out there, I know.  That’s how I mock roll!  I didn’t necessarily follow my 2009 fantasy baseball rankings to a T.  What fun is mocking if you don’t take some (mock) liberties. This mock’s participants were some of the finest fantasy baseball ‘perts in the fantasy baseball bidness.  Below the pretty picture of my drafted team is, as always, the notes I took while mock drafting:

1st Round – Miguel Cabrera.  Two Mets off the board with the 1st two picks.  Obviously Ralph Kiner paid off some of these ‘perts.  Hey, no illusions of grandeur here.  I can be bought too.

2nd Round – Carlos Beltran.  I’m eyeing Chase Utley.  Oh, he looks real nice at the 17th pick.  Scooped!  The ‘pert right before me grabbed Utley and I was left with Beltran.  Some picks I didn’t like in this round were Pedroia, Manny and Ichiro.

3rd Round – Carlos Quentin.  Wow, Santana held around for a while. I think that’s just a sign that this is a mock draft.  I doubt that has much real world significance, but if you see Johan in the third round by all means grab him.  Honestly, I didn’t like my choices in the 3rd round.  I almost took Lincecum, but didn’t want a pitcher yet.  I don’t want Morneau or Bay this early.  I considered Phillips long and hard and almost took him.

4th Round – Jake Peavy.  I have a whole post coming up about Peavy.  This is just another sign of this “What have you done for me lately?” attitude.  Sure, Peavy wasn’t incredible in 2008.  Guess what, ya’ll?  It’s 2009.  Picks I didn’t like in this round were Ortiz, Furcal, Vlad and K-Rod.

5th Round – Alexei Ramirez.  I’ve suddenly become a South Sider with these picks.  Usually I’d hold off on a MI, but I’m trying to zag on my own usual zigging at times to see what I come up with.  Picks I didn’t like in the 5th round — Mike Jacobs.  Zoinks!

6th Round – Chris Davis.  During this pick, I went to the bathroom and Bill James drafted for me.  Atkins, Zimmerman, Huff and Cantu were staring me in the face.  I went with an upside pick, as I did with my last three picks.  I don’t think I can go with an upside pick for the next five or so rounds.

7th Round & 8th Round – Jermaine Dye and Derrek Lee.  The kind of safe picks I was talking about in the 6th round.  I’ve just about righted the ship from my upside picks.  Now I’m looking for a pitcher.

9th Round – Chad Billingsley.  Guess who’s staring at me in the face?  Billingsley.  My pre-preseason Cy Young pick, who I’m slightly worried about because of his increase in innings in 2008.  He’s not the absolute safest pick like I was thinking about, but this value is way too great.  Some other pitchers I could’ve drafted here were Lackey, Burnett, Lester and Dice-K.  I think this is just ‘perts telling their readers to not draft pitchers and then them showing everyone how they don’t draft pitchers.  I don’t draft pitchers early either, but this group of mockers is extreme.  In your league, you’re going to have to draft some of the pitchers that went in the 9th and 10th rounds before then if you want them.  A pick I didn’t like in this round, Polanco.  Think about the difference in value between Billingsley and Polanco.

10th Round – Pat Burrell.  There were a lot of great picks in this round.  Soria, Joba, Dice-K and Burnett.  Admittedly, I probably did the worst this round, but I wanted safe power.

11th Round – Jonathan Broxton. Ignore the previous year’s saves when drafting your closer.  Just make sure he has the job for the upcoming year.  Broxton had 88 Ks last year. He could easily be the number one closer in 2009 and I just drafted him in the 11th round.  K-Rod went in the 4th round.

13th Round – Adam Wainwright.  Honestly, I think I have the best pitching staff right now, but pitching is unpredictable so this staff could blow up in my face.

15th Round – Justin Upton.  Looking to head back to the OF after taking some pitchers.  My choices here aren’t great, but I’ll take my chances with Krispie Young – Scooped!  I end up taking his OF-mate.  I’m not thrilled with this pick, but Upton’s upside is huge for the 15th round.  A pick I really liked this round was Conor Jackson.  I wasn’t crazy about the Posada, Huston Street or Mark Reynolds picks.  Not that I wouldn’t draft them, just not here.  Not now.

17th Round – Chad Qualls.  My pick is pretty self-explanatory.  At least I hope it is.  The Diamondbacks are saying Qualls is the closer.  Don’t worry about who you think should be the closer, just go with who the club puts in the role.  You’ll save yourself lots of headaches (pun was noted and groaned at).

18th Round – Miguel Tejada.  I realize he’s not juicing anymore but him falling to the 18th round is kinda ridiculous.

21st Round – Fred Lewis.  Actually kinda of surprised to still see him on the board when I was drafting in the 21st round.  My team was also lacking steals, so this was the smartest pick left for me without having to grab Juan Pierre.

22nd Round – Chris Snyder.  Not a huge fan of Snyder’s, but Jeff Clement went in the 16th round.

Already sporting 2 of the top 3 NL windmills in Krispie Young and Mark Reynolds, the D-Backs traded for #5 Adam Dunn.  Dunn will give you HR.  Dunn will give you OBP.  Everything else is ugly and it looks like the Reds just couldn’t take looking at it anymore. It’s as if he’s Moneyball on the rocks and everyone prefers to add some tonic or juice. This doesn’t do much for Dunn’s value.  He still has home games in a hitter’s park and it’s not like his HRs wouldn’t clear the walls in San Diego and SF. This move adds some offensive punch to the D-Backs lineup, but remember Dunn was never a huge RBI guy. Speaking of huge, there’s a hole in the Reds team now that Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, (or Jim Thome) could walk through. Hairston should benefit from the lineup spot vacancy and Patterson should get most starts in the outfield. But who will the Reds now judge burly against? Their lardstick has left the building. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Evan Longoria – Fractured wrist sends Longoria to the DL. Word around Wisteria Lane is the injury happened from bitch-slapping Nicolette Sheridan. It’s tough being the youngest and prettiest on the block… For the Rays, this is a tough 1-2 after losing Carl Crawford. It’s as if the world realizes something is amiss with the Rays winning and wants to put things back in order. Bad news for Longoria owners. There’s a chance the Rays rush him back for the pennant race, but there’s also a good chance he may not return this year in time to help anyone or he may return and not be the same hitter in the final month. Wrist injuries are often doom for hitters’ short-term production.

CJ Wilson – Done for the season. Guardado will remain the closer until he begins to look more like the real Guardado then Frank Francisco will take over. ETA for real Guardado? 3 days to one month.

Justin Verlander – 4.1 IP, 6 ER. Reports are saying he has a dead arm. That doesn’t mean he’s walking around like a zombie with his arm sticking out. It means Leyland had him throw 130 pitches last week then had him throw 4 days later. Luckily, a dead arm is not as bad as an injured arm. But it’s the first step.

Aaron Heilman – 3 ER, blowing the save. If Heilman’s got Jerry Manuel pulling out his hair, he might want to call Guiseppe Franco. When the best righty closer in your team’s 40+ year history is Armando Benitez, you’ve got to expect the worst. If you’re Double D’d with closers, you might want to punt this whole situation.

John Grabow – Save for Pittsburgh. Might be good for 5-7 more saves the rest of the way which will require 10-12 Tums.

Glen Perkins – Kudos to those of you who had the cajones to start the now 9-3 Perkins against the Yanks as he shut them out for 8 innings.  He’s not going to give you K’s or a great WHIP but he might be worth keeping an eye on for spot starts the rest of the way.

Carlos Lee – Had surgery on his pinkie. The operating doctor said, “It had been torn apart like a jigsaw puzzle that we put together.” Okay, but was it like a snow scene puzzle where there’s like 3000 white pieces or was it a dogs playing poker puzzle?

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER. He looks flat-out usable. (Which is, of course, below flat-out dominating and above flat-out awful.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Returns from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt anyone else reinjuring himself on Wednesday.

Hideki Matsui/Joba Chamberlain – Hideki’s running the bases and Joba’s set to throw on Friday. Everything’s all right in Yankee land, except for getting shutout by the aforementioned Glen Perkins. And batting Justin Christian lead off. And being 9 games behind the Rays. And being closer to the fourth place Jays than the second place Sox. And starting Sidney Ponson every fifth day. And starting Rasner. And relying on Xavier Nady. And still paying Carl Pavano. And thinking Ivan Rodriguez would really matter in the big picture. But other than those things, all is right in Yankee land.

Harnessing the pitching brilliance of Native Americans and intergalactic tubbies, Joba Chamberlain appeared to be the savior the Yankee fans, Girardi and Hankenstein needed for their pitching staff. So it was a terrific blow when Joba Chamberlain left yesterday’s game rubbing his shoulder. The only thing worse would be if Joba hurt it in a fight with The Drunken Ghost of Billy Martin. (Fortunately, he’s in a cloud lined with sawdust, boozing it up with Mickey Mantle.) Fantasy baseball owners can’t be thrilled either. Pitcher leaves game rubbing shoulder? Fantasy baseball owner leaves seat walking funny. It’s too bad they can’t trade for Jar Jar on the Braves. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Cliff Lee – I figured since I hadn’t watched him in over two months, it was time to jinx him. I was so close in the 2nd when I got him to walk a few and load the bases. Alas, he pitched well in every other inning. Never fear, non-Cliff Lee owners, I will grab him like some friggin’ floating astronaut and drag him back to earth.

C.J. Wilson – Wilson says he’s feeling fatigued, maybe he got mono from a Kotchman open-mouth kiss. Either way, Eddie Guardado should be owned in all leagues because he would step in if C.J. pulls a Prince Valium.

Jason Bartlett – Won’t be able to throw a baseball for a few days, maybe Kotchman kissed his hand.

Kerry Wood – Word out of Wrigleyville is Wood can close again, but he’s going to get a bit of work in the middle innings then move into the closing role by the end of the week.

Gil Meche – Everyone mocked KC for signing him to that ridiculous contract but who’s dancing now.  That’s right.  Good ol’ Gil.  9 Ks in a 6 IP win against the Sox.  10-9 for an awful team – including 9-5 with a 3.27 ERA since May.

Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman says he should be able to avoid the DL with his bruised hand, so he can just clog up your bench instead.

Eric Chavez – Shut down for the year.  Maybe they could build a healthy 3B out of the spare parts of Chavez and Blalock?  Those A’s don’t have a long shelf life, do they?  Mulder, Hudson, Chavez, Byrnes… Who’d have thought Harden and Giambi would be the poster children of durability?

Jay Bruce – 3 HRs in 4 games.  That’s the Bruce we know and love.  He obviously idolized Griffey Jr. and was emulating the current version.  Now that he’s out of Cincy, he’s back to emulating the 90′s version.

Bronson Arroyo – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  This on the heels of Zito besting Peavy yesterday.  Guess it’s premature for both to retire and start a rock trio with Slow Hand Pete called Baked Zito and the Republic of Bro-Yo, featuring Slow Hand Pete.

Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 1 ER. Queue the projector.  It’s time for another installment of Out of Contention Run For Cy Young in Toronto. (see Clemens, Hentgen, Halladay…)

Tyler Yates – Third of an inning, 5 ER. This works out to a 135 ERA, 15 WHIP and 1 less closer on all of my teams.

Manny Parra/Prince Fielder – Hit hard by the Reds, hit harder by Fielder in the dugout. I haven’t seen anything this lopsided since Andre took on this guy. “Stop talking about meat and I mean it!”

Matthew Berry at ESPN is on a ‘fantasy jihad’ to make sure you don’t pay for saves come draft day. No word on whether resisting this temptation will be paid off with 72 virgins.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it – this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.