Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

Colorado Rockies 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (10) | 2009 (20) | 2008 (7) | 2007 (2) | 2006 (11) | 2005 (6) | 2004 (15)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [83 – 79] NL West
AAA: [73 – 69] Pacific Coast League – Colorado Springs
AA: [74 – 66] Texas League – Tulsa
A+: [ 75 – 65] California League – Modesto
A: [68 – 70] South Atlantic League – Asheville
A(ss): [47 – 29] Northwest League – Tri-City
R: [28 – 46] Pioneer League – Casper

The Run Down
Seems like every year the Rockies are making some magical run in September. Helps with their homegrown talent and successful development of their minor leagues through trades. It also helps that Carlos Gonzalez had a monster breakout year. Furthermore, the past year saw Jhoulys Chacin provided a solid 137 innings, even if Grey’s SAGNOF call outs for Eric Young Jr. and Dexter Fowler struggled. This year there might just be some middle reliever success stories. As if the Rockies need more outfield help, there seems to be a glut of depth here. I don’t expect another Jhoulys this year, but in 2012 some young arms will be close (Friedrich and Matzek).

Graduating Prospects
#4 (RHP) Jhoulys Chacin; #6 (2B) Eric Young Jr.; #9 (RHP) Esmil Rogers; (2B) Jonathan Herrera

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers: (RHP) Bruce Billings; #8 (LHP) Rex Brothers; (RHP) Adam Jorgenson; (RHP) Greg Reynolds
Hitters: # 18 (C) Jordan Pacheco; (IF) Thomas Field; #12 (CF) Charlie Blackmon

Players of Interest
All rankings are from Baseball America 2010 with information from Baseball America 2010 and 2011 along with John Sickel Prospect Handbook 2010 and 2011.

Hitters
Cole Garner | LF/RF | D.o.B: 12-15-84 | Stats (AAA): .304/.374/.520 | 469 AB | 54 XBH | 13 Hr | .216 ISO | 8/5 SB/CS | 89:39 K:BB | .360 BABIP
Garner is an aggressive hitter with good power, a quick bat, and makes solid contact. He chases breaking pitches out of the zone but has become more consistent. Defensively, he is average. Another Seth Smith? Can Colorado really handle another fringe fourth outfielder? Probably not. If there is a rash of injuries, Garner could be called upon.

#12 Charlie Blackman | CF | D.o.B: 7-1-87 | Stats (AA): .297/.360/.484 | 337 AB | 37 XBH | 11 Hr | .187 ISO | 19/7 SB/CS | 43:32 K:BB | .309 BABIP
Blackmon has a compact stroke and power to the gaps. Even with above-average speed, he struggles with getting solid jumps when stealing. Defensively, his throwing mechanics are awkward but defense is above-average. BA expects a September ETA but don’t get your hopes up, Sickels thinks he’s another fourth outfielder. Could be part of a trade if the Rockies need a piece or two.

#29 Chris Nelson | SS/2B | D.o.B: 9-3-85 | Stats (AAA): .313/.376/.492 | 319 AB | 30 XBH | .179 ISO | 7/3 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB | .348 BABIP
Nelson has struggled to stay healthy, but he has the tool for great upside. Baseball America states that Nelson’s bat speed is comparable to Gary Sheffield. Good power from MI position, struggles with defense and with breaking pitches. His ceiling is a poor man’s Dan Uggla. He could also become like Ian Stewart, never quite living up to expectations.

Pitchers
#2 Christian Friedrich | LHP | D.o.B: 7-8-87 | Stats (AA): 8.0 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 5.05 ERA | 4.21 FIP | 1.55 WHIP | 10.3 H/9 | 1.0 Hr/9 | .342 BABIP
Injuries have dampened everyone’s expectations of Friedrich. Throws low-90′s fastball, a 12-to-6 curve, a sharp slider, and a changeup in the works. Still about two years away and projects as a middle rotation pitcher. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

#25 Matt Reynolds | LHP | D.o.B: 10-2-84 | Stats (AAA): 11.0 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 55 IP | 2.62 ERA | 2.16 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | 8.0 H/9 | .3 Hr/9 | .333 BABIP
Throws a deceptive 90 to 92 MPH fastball, a split-finger and a curve/slider/slurve. Threw 18 effective innings in September. Baseball America stated that Reynolds should receive a position in the major league bullpen. Could provide stellar ratios for you MR. B’s.

Cory Riordan | RHP | D.o.B: 5-25-86 | Stats (AA): 7.5 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 161 2/3 IP | 4.01 ERA | 3.93 FIP | 1.27 WHIP | 9.4 H/9 | 1.1 Hr/9 | .310 BABIP
Has pitched 499 innings in three years. He’s a workhorse throwing a 87 to 93 MPH fastball with sinking action. He also throws a curveball, a slider and a fringe changeup. John Sickels thinks he would perform well at San Diego or Minnesota. Riordan has more real life value than in fantasy.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#3 Wilin Rosario | C | D.o.B: 2-23-89 | Stats (AA): .285/.342/.552 | 270 AB | 33 XBH | 19 Hr | .277 ISO | 1/0 SB/CS | 57:21 K:BB | .297 BABIP
A torn ACL in August 2010 will delay his ETA. As it currently stands, Rosario has a compact swing with good bat speed. He has power to all fields with the potential for 20 to 30 home runs during a full season. Defensively, he’s average. Could be another Brian McCann. Earliest arrival appears to be in September.

#10 Nolan Arenado | 3B | D.o.B: 4-16-91 | Stats (A): .308/.338/.520 | 373 AB | 54 XBH | 12 Hr | .212 ISO | 1/3 SB/CS | 52:19 K:BB | .326 BABIP
Flying under the radar, Arenado has above-average power. Doesn’t walk much, but Arenado is young and both Sickels and BA report that he is intensively trying to improve this skill. He is new to playing third as he was a shortstop in high school, but projects to play first long-term.

Pitchers
#1 Tyler Matzek | LHP | D.o.B: 10-19-90 | Stats (A): 8.9 K/9 | 6.2 BB/9 | 89 1/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 4.32 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | 6.2 H/9 | .6 Hr/9 | .259 BABIP
Matzek throws a 88 to 92 MPH with a top of 96 MPH. Still is struggling to develop a secondary breaking pitch. He has a decent feeling for a curveball but his slider projects to be a better pitch. Mechanics are still a work in progress which has led to poor command. Ceiling is a front line starter.

#15 Juan Nicasio | RHP | D.o.B: 10-13-86 | Stats (A+): 8.7 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 177 1/3 IP | 3.91 ERA | 2.89 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | 9.4 H/9 | .7 Hr/9 | .328 BABIP
Some scouts believe he could be a late bloomer like Ubaldo Jimenez. Nicasio throws a 89 to 94 MPH fastball that can touch 97 MPH. He also throws a curveball and slider that acts more like a slurve. His changeup is a work in progress. ETA would be mid-2012 if all breaks right.

#8 Rex Brothers | LHP | D.o.B: 12-18-87 | Stats (A+/AA): 10.5 K/9 | 5.6 BB/9 | 60 IP | 3.15 ERA | 2.42 FIP (A+); 4.46 FIP (AA) | 1.18 WHIP | 5.1 H/9 | .3 Hr/9 | .235 BABIP (A+); .226 BABIP (AA)
Throws a 98 MPH fastball typically running in the mid-90s. Also throws a hard biting slider in the mid-80s. Far more exciting than Matt Reynolds, but a step and a half below. Struggled in his 23 innings at Double-A and was aided by extremely low BABIPs. I wouldn’t expect to see him in the majors until late 2011 barring a rash of injuries.

Christian Friedrich | LHP – SP | Colorado Rockies | DOB: 7-8-87 | 6’4” | 218 lbs | B/T: R/L | 1st rd pk #25, 2008 from College | COL #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

After thoroughly dominating Class High-A (California League) in 2009, Friedrich has fallen on hard times at Class Double-A (Texas League). He was the Top Prospect at High-A California last year and had the second highest strikeout rate in the minors (12.0 K/9). Throwing a low 90′s fastballs that top out at 95 mph, a 12-to-6 curveball that John Sickels calls “nasty,” a short and hard slider (or cutter if you’re reading Keith Law), and a newly acquired changeup – never threw one until he became a pro. The breaking balls have been called, “emerging plus pitches,” and, “advanced,” his changeup is called average, and he needs to locate his fastball better. Law describes his 36th ranked prospect’s throwing motion as long, and at times he drops his elbow. He goes on to say that Friedrich does a good job of staying on top of the ball. Had left elbow inflammation in 2009, but scouts weren’t worried about long term effects. This year, on July 18, he was hit in his pitching elbow by a batted ball. His upside, according to Keith Law, is a number three starter or a fringe number two; Sickels says he’s in the Mark Mulder/Barry Zito mold. This year his numbers are:

2010 Stats: 8.7 K/9 | 3.9 BB/9 | 73 1/3 IP | 5.28 ERA | 4.36 FIP | 1.60 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 10.4 H/9 | .368 BABIP | 42.5 GB% | 23.6 LD% | 30.5 FB% | 12. 7 Hr/FB%

Career stats: 11 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 241 IP | 3.66 ERA | 3.46 FIP | 1.30 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .345 BABIP | 44.9 GB% | 17 LD% | 33.5 FB% | 8.8 Hr/FB%

Not what everyone was hoping. The Rockies were really cautious with Friedrich after he came off the elbow inflammation DL stint at the end of last year. Scouts and analysis says he was ready for Double-A, but the Rox didn’t push him there, waiting until the upcoming season for the promotion. Well, maybe he was ready, but his numbers show a pitcher who is struggling. He’s been working on changing his mechanics at the time of his injury. His BABIP has been high his entire career (.319 in 2009 at High-A when he was dominating). However, his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically at Double-A (nearly 3 fully strikeouts per nine innings), his walks have increased (by half a walk per nine innings) and his home run rate has nearly tripled (.4 Hr/9 to 1.1 Hr/9) while his flyball percentage dropped from 38 percent to 30.5 percent (increase in line drive rate hasn’t helped). There are some concerning numbers being produced this year, but how many of them are attributed to a small sample size and out-of-wack advance metrics and how many are attributed to his true talent and adjustments that haven’t been made? He’s a young lefty that may need more time at Double-A and not a late season call-up like all three of my sources were thinking he’d receive. His ETA would be next summer if that was the case, and a possible late season call-up this year, if the Rox are trying to instill some kind of confidence in their young pitcher. Still has a lot of upside, maybe this was his outlier year.

Eric Hosmer | 1B | Kansas City Royals | DOB: 10-24-89 | 6’4” | 215 lbs | B/T: L/L | 1st rd, pk #3, 2008 from H.S. | KC #5 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

You’d think the Royals would have a good team with Mike Montgomery and Mike Moustakas getting praise in recent weeks. Hosmer’s stock had crashed, according to Baseball America, but has rebounded nicely this year. Last year he had trouble seeing the ball well and was diagnosed with astigmatism. To complicate his season more, he had a hairline fracture on right hand knuckle causing his finger to swell so much that he couldn’t grip the bat properly. In August (2009), he had laser eye surgery to fix the astigmatism since the contacts and glasses weren’t helping. Blessed with outstanding raw power, a balanced swing with quick wrists, and good feel for the strike zone. Keith Law calls him an, “elite hitting prospect.” He also has a plus arm – not quite as helpful at first base; his defense is adequate but he’s not as athletic as one would assume, since he has heavy feet and below average speed. Playing first base, he just needs to hit for our purposes here. Let’s see if that has happened this year:

2010 Stats: .351/.424/.575 | 393 AB | 54 XBH | 14 Hr | .224 ISO | 13/1 SB/CS | 46:50 K:BB | .368 BABIP | 50.3 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.5 FB%

Career Stats: .298/.383/.471 | 781 AB | 85 XBH | 20 Hr | .173 ISO | 16/3 SB/CS | 138:106 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 55.9 GB% | 13.8 LD% | 30.2 FB%

HQ, this is Bravo Company, the Royal units have overtaken our position and we have to retreat. Hosmer was recently promoted to Double-A to take over Mike Moustakas’ position in the lineup. A few quoted Double-A managers are saying they’re glad they didn’t have to face Hosmer and Moustakas in the same lineup (see: MiLB article). The Royals High-A affiliate (Wilmington) plays like Petco (Moustakas struggled here too).  Hosmer struggled in 2009 for a brief stint, but this year he’s slashed .354/.429/.545 with seven homers in 325 ab-bats. To put that into perspective, he has hit seven homers in 72 at-bats at Double-A (Texas League – Northwest Arkansas). His BABIP has influenced his ratio stats – but half his season has been played in a spacious park too, which would lead one to belief his ratio stats would plummet. His ground ball rate fell by eight percent at Double-A (42.6%). His flyball rate is improving, which means a potential for more home runs. The steals – I don’t know what to think of them yet, seems like a fluke (13 of those are at High-A). One more thing of note, as a left handed batter, he has struggled against lefties for his career (.272/.320/.384 vs LHP; .305/.402/.508 vs RHP).  However, this year there isn’t much of a splits difference (hitting better against lefties actually average-wise, and slugs .007 better against RHP).

Dayton Moore (KC’s GM) may be making some weird major league decisions (like not having Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue playing in the majors until recently), he has done a great job of making a top minor league system. Hosmer has the potential to help out next spring, and hopefully they don’t pull a Kila-esque (use your Robert De Niro voice) move on Hosmer, we’ll be seeing him sooner rather than later. Think of a 20 to 25 homer potential with a .300 average – a Billy Buttler without the moobs. That’s his immediate major league upside. His peak years hopefully would produce more counting stats.

Colorado Rockies 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (20) | 2008 (7) | 2007 (2) | 2006 (11) | 2005 (6) | 2004 (15)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [92 – 72] NL West – third best record in NL
AAA: [73 – 69] Pacific Coast League
AA: [74 – 66] Texas League
A+: [ 75 – 65] California League
A: [68 – 70] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [47 – 29] Northwest League
R: [28 – 46] Pioneer League

The Run Down
The Rockies have done an excellent job of developing and receiving value from their farm system.  Their starting roster is littered with internal prospects. From Tulowitzki to Helton to, Grey’s obsession, Ian Stewart to Seth Smith to Dexter Fowler to Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez.  This year was their worst in at least five seasons for prospects. However, they still maximized value once again. Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith proved that they deserved to be in the Big Show. 2010 has some potential to produce a few highlights. Look for Eric Young Jr., Jhoulys Chacin and possibly Esmil Rogers to assist the Rockies in their chase for another playoff push.

Graduating Prospects
#1 – OF – Dexter Fowler; #8 – OF – Seth Smith; P- Matt Daley

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – Craig Baker, Andrew Johnson, Matt Reynolds, Chaz Roe
Hitters – (C) Wilin Rosario, (SS) Hector Gomez, (3B) Darin Holcomb

Players of Interest
Hitters
#18 – Eric Young Jr.| 2B | AAA | 24 | .299/.387/.430 | 472 AB | 21 2B | 10 3B | 7 HR | .131 ISO | 58/14 SB/CS | 79:56 K:BB | .347 BABIP | 60.9 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 22.9 FB%
The son of former major leaguer, Eric Young; and Junior can flat out run. He has stolen 303 bases in 393 attempts (568 career games), albeit, that means he has been thrown out nearly 23% of the time. He runs like a gazelle, but fields like Dan Uggla. The Rockies have tried him out in center field (only played 11 games there this year), but he’ll probably stay at second. His ground-ball rate (60.9%) this year isn’t far off from his career average (57%), thus, his BABIP is going to be naturally higher. Plus, it allows him to utilize that blazing speed. Additionally, Young may push Clint Barmes for the starting second basemen in 2010. If he doesn’t win the job out of spring training, look for a June 1st call-up. Especially if you want some cheap steals (praise SAGNOF call-ups).

#9 – Michael McKenry | C | AA | 24 | .279/.376/.455 | 358 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .176 ISO | 69:54 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 38.4 GB% | 22.3 LD% | 39 FB%
The Rockies second rated catcher in 2009, probably moved ahead of Wilin Rosario for ’10. With a strong arm and quick release, McKenry plays solid defense and calls a good game. His offense just started to come around in 2008 and this year he proved it wasn’t a fluke, hitting outside the friendly confines of the California League bandboxes. His line drive rate (22.3) was impressive, showing that he was hitting the ball hard, and often. He projects as a back up, but may deserve regular time if he continues to hit at Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#2 – Jhoulys Chacin | RHP | AA/AAA | 21 | 7.4 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.21 ERA | @AA 4.01 FIP; @AAA 6.20 FIP | 1.24 WHIP | .267 BABIP | 54.6 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 25.2 FB% | .9 HR/9 | [career rates:59.2 GB% | 13.6 LD% | 23.5 FB% in 404 2/3 IP]
Chacin induces ground balls at mind boggling rates. His career ground ball rate (59.2) are similar to Tim Hudson (58.6%), teammate Aaron Cook (57.5%) and Chien-Ming Wang (60.1%). Even if he lost 5 to 7% of that rate in the majors, he would have similar rates as Greg Maddux (51.5%), Chris Carpenter (52.8%), and Mariano Rivera (54.2%). He did receive a call-up in September, but didn’t fare extraordinarily well. He possesses a mid-90′s fastball with tons of heavy sinking action, a stellar change-up and a so-so curve. Considered to be a middle of the rotation starter, Chacin looks eerily similar to Aaron Cook, but with a few more strikeouts. However boring in fantasy terms, the ground balls should favor him at Coors.

#3 – Christian Friedrich | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 12 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 119 2/3 IP | 2.41 ERA | @A 1.92 FIP; @A+ 2.55 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .329 BABIP | 45.1 B% | 13.3 LD% | 35.2 FB%
Possessing a low-90′s fastball, a 12-to-6 curve, a sharp slider, and a change-up in the works, Friedrich (von Lichtenstein) is considered the Rockies top lefty prospect. In his first full year in the minors, he pitched well at both levels of play. Baseball America believes that he could bull-rush through the minors much like Jeff Francis did a few years back. He should start in Double-A and rise to Triple-A by the end of the season. von Lichtenstein isn’t part of his name. Just a fun reference to a movie, can anyone guess which one?

#7 – Esmil Rogers | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 7.5 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 155 IP | 4.41 ERA | @AA 2.41 FIP | @AAA 5.49 FIP | 1.41 WHIP | .331 BABIP | 45.2 GB% | 18 LD% | 32.4 FB% | .6 HR/9
A former shortstop, Rogers has developed quite rapidly since his conversion. With a low to mid-90′s fastball, an average curve, and a spotty change-up, he could make the team out of spring training. Chacin and him should be battling for the same starting spot. Other than the ground ball rates and WHIP, Rogers posted better numbers than Chacin did with a higher BABIP – more innings, lower walk rate, higher strikeout rate. If Rogers wins the battle, I’d wait until his first couple of starts to jump on his bandwagon.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#20 – Darin Holcomb | 3B | AA | 23 | .271/.348/.411 | 479 AB | 26 2B | 13 HR | .140 ISO | 50:54 K:BB | .281 BABIP | 45 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Not overly impressive, but serviceable. He has 15 to 20 homer potential in the majors, even with Coors as his home field. One plus is that he possesses great recognition of the strike zone. Another plus, instead of hitting tons of homers, he hits a lot of balls into the gap. Think 2009 David Wright without the speed. He has a career 140:150 K:BB ratio in 1265 AB. With Ian Stewart looking like he could hold done the hot corner, Holcomb’s future may be as a role player.

#10 – Charles Blackman | CF | A+ | 22 | .307/.370/.433 | 550 AB | 34 2B | 7 3B | 7 HR | .126 ISO | 30/13 SB/CS | 83:37 K:BB | .352 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18 LD% | 31.1 FB%
He is the prototypical, drool inducing prospect. He has all “five-tools” and he’s playing like he is going to mature into an amazing player. Charles, or Charlie, has a strong arm, plus-plus speed, a “picture perfect” left hand swing with line drive power, according to Baseball America. Well, he will have to produce at Double-A next year before the Rockies need to make a decision about where he is going to play with Seth Smith, Fowler, Spilborghs, Hawpe and Carlos Gonzalez already vying for playing time.

Matt Miller | RF | AAA | 26 | .319/.380/.476 | 528 AB | 39 2B | 8 3B | 9 HR | .157 ISO | 78:51 K:BB | .362 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18.6 LD% | 30.6 FB%
There is nothing exciting about Miller. I mention him because in case of mass injuries to the Rockies outfield, Miller may be the first player called up. He has played a year and a half at Triple-A and is quite underwhelming. He hits for decent average, albeit inflated by a high BABIP, has decent plate-discipline and average skills. However, he could play adequately for a short period.

Pitchers
Ramoncito Garcia | RHP | A | 20 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 112 IP | 2.41 ERA | 1.19 WHIP
I couldn’t find him anywhere else besides Baseball-Reference.com, however, as a 20 year old, those are great numbers. He’ll pitch at High-A and, if those numbers continue, plausibly Double-A by midseason. Keep an eye on this youngster.