Holy hell, it’s July already, cue the fireworks. Roll the stock footage of Bill Pullman from Independence Day, except make it sound cool with a nice fantasy touch, “This week we celebrate our wins above replacement day!” This week’s list is littered with crafty lefties and dudes who wear pseudo-athletic glasses, which are also cool for squash. The season is getting interesting and I can’t wait for the first shoe to drop in the trade market. Why that expression makes any sense is beyond me, because shoes are supposed to be on the ground anyways so why would we wait for them to drop? Any the who! Good luck on this week’s fantasy endeavors, and don’t eat too many hot dogs. (Please keep in mind the pitchers and matchups change.)
One Start Options:
7/6
Jason Vargas @ Oak – Cahill
Dustin Moseley @SF – Bumgarner
Tyler Chatwood vs. Det – Penny
7/7
Derek Holland vs. Oak – Harden
Joe Saunders @ Stl – McClellan
Cory Luebke @ SF – Zito
7/8
R.A. Dickey @ SF – Vogelsong
John Lannan vs. Col – Hammel
Jordan Lyles @ Fla – Vazquez
Mike Pelfrey (@LAD vs. De La Rosa, @SF vs. Cain) Ugly ERA on the road. Mets are tattooing the ball right now and scoring a crapton of runs. Needs to avoid the dreaded big fly to have any success.
Vance Worley (@Fla vs. Nolasco, Atl vs. Lowe) It’s been years since a Vance had fantasy value, Law in ‘88 is the best I can think of. Before that it was Cousin Vance on the crappy Dukes of Hazzard years. Been effectively lucky, BB’s will be his only downfall.
Paul Maholm (Hou vs. Myers, CHC vs. Zambrano) Loves the perks at PNC, home ERA just over a deuce. Put the win/loss record aside and look deeper. I just wish the ‘Burgh had money to make a splash, because to me they are just on the cusp and need a big bat.
Chris Capuano (@LAD vs. Lilly, @SF vs. Lincecum) Another Met pitcher, another HR magnet. Pitched decent in May even better in June, it’s now July so I guess it’s either Vegas or bust.
Clayton Richard (@SF vs. Lincecum, @LAD vs. Lilly) It’s hodgepodge on opposite day. The epitome of a whiptard. Usually shows up every other week for a start that you shouldn’t have sonavabenched.
Charlie Furbush (@Ana vs. Pineiro, @KC vs. Hochevar) Top 5 all time names in sports. Detroit need to infuse some potential into there starting rotation. Averages over a K /inning in the minors. Dudley Dawson said it best, “We’ve got bush!”
Brian Duensing (TB vs. Price, @CHW vs. Buerhle) Pitches just well enough to keep himself on this post. Nothing that jumps out and says “Hey, you’re fantasy worthy,” and I’m here to say you’re correct. Typical low end 2 start worthy guy who flounders on wire.
Joel Pineiro (Det vs. Furbush, Sea vs. Hernandez) Look up. You see what I wrote for Duensing? Okay, do the same with Joel but read it right handed.
Chris Volstad (Phi vs. Hamels, Hou vs. Rodriquez) He’s a groundball wizard. Gets himself into trouble when he tries to K too many. ERA lower by a run a half at home, unfortunately the Marlins just plain stink.
Brett Cecil (@Bos vs. Lester, @Cle vs. Carrasco) Went to the minors to build up arm strength. Translation to fantasy: he was awful and not hurt. Potential is there to be decent, better to get in on the bottom floor for free, just needs to build quality innings.
Replacing Phil Coke in the Tigers rotation is Charlie Furbush. It’s about time that Leyland gave Furbush a mustache ride. Furbush also sounds like a character description for someone in a Woodstock documentary. Or a character name in a 70′s porn flick made by Leyland called, “The Marlboro Mandingo.” That was co-starring Virginia Slim. Furbush looked great in the minors, posting a solid K-rate while keeping his walks in line. He is not a 2-something ERA pitcher as he’s shown so far this year. He’s leaving 93% of men on base, that won’t continue. He can give you around a 7 K-rate with a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA. I’d grab Furbush in H2H mixed leagues for matchups and in AL-Only leagues. In roto mixed leagues, you can grab him in certain circumstances, but caveat emptor for our Latin readers. (BTW, To all the Googlers who searched for Furbush and weren’t looking for a fantasy baseball site — howdy!) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Cole Hamels – Hit on his hand by a comebacker, but x-rays came back negative. Speaking of negatives that are positive, yesterday frequent commenter DHill Dragons pointed out the Phillies starting staff in June had a 1.96 ERA. A Philly quartet hasn’t been this hot since Boys II Men.
Mark Ellis – The Rockies acquired him. You know what the Rockies really needed? Another utility infieder. Can’t they save Melvin Mora from retirement while they’re at it? Ellis is 34 and 4 years removed from a solid season. I wouldn’t grab him in anything but NL-Only leagues, and there oekávání, which is me putting expectations in Czech.
Jemile Weeks – 2-for-5, hitting .309 with 6 steals in 21 games since his call-up. With Ellis taking his extraordinarily ordinary talents to Colorado, Weeks is the everyday 2nd baseman for the A’s, and has been leading off. At this point, he’s worth a flyer in all mixed leagues if you’re struggling with your middle infidel.
Jon Lester – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks. Matthew Berry wrote a post yesterday about how he’d trade Lester for Beachy. “I go big or I go home!” That’s Berry. I like Beachy. March Grey told you to draft Beachy on all your teams, but, uh, has Berry been institutionalized? His posts are too long for a 100 monkeys with a 100 typewriters to put them together, aren’t they? “Mordecai the Monkey, type more fantasy baseball and less Shakespearean sonnets! I’ve got deadlines!” That’s Berry again.
Kevin Youkilis – X-rays came back negative on his ankle, even though he seems more like a cankle person. For now he’s day-to-day. Or Day II Day, if you’re into R&B.
Neil Walker – Sat out with back soreness. Hurdle said, “I’m trying to be proactive with it.” Does he have acne too?
Carlos Lee – 1-for-2 with his 2nd homer in as many games. If someone grew bored of him in your league, I’d take a chance that he’s heating up. If someone didn’t grow bored of him, I worry about the competitiveness of your league.
Carlos Zambrano – Left in the 2nd inning with back soreness. Damnbacko!
CC Sabathia – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 13 Ks. That tied his career high in Ks, getting the one man who can get on a seesaw with him, Prince Fielder, three times.
Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners. Two weeks ago, I pointed out he should be much better. Since then, 20 2/3 IP and 3 earned runs, lowering his overall ERA by more than one full run.
Andy Dirks – 2-for-3 with his 6th homer in 34 games and stole his 3rd bag for the always coveted slam & legs. I should’ve mentioned him yesterday when he hit a home run in his 2nd straight game, but everyone homered on Wednesday for the Tigers. Now Dirks has three straight games with dongs (great, now more disappointed Googlers). I don’t trust Leyland to sit Mags for Dirks indefinitely, so playing time appears to be an issue.
Brian Matusz – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER and optioned to the minors. Or maybe that’s the minorsz.
Jason Kubel – Had a setback during his rehab. Just think of this as a wake-up call that if you’re waiting for Kubel, you have bigger fish to fry.
Aramis Ramirez – 1-for-5 with his 10th home run and his 8th in June. For s’s and g’s, let’s look at what I said on May 30th, “(Aramis) tends to get scolding hot for extended stretches, so if someone dropped him in your league, I’d grab him.” Prescient isn’t just a word you can’t pronounce!
Geovany Soto – Hit his 8th home run yesterday. Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell. I wrote it while jumping Double Dutch.
Pablo Sandoval – He needed thirteen innings but Kung Fu Panda got a slam & legs. Guess it was more like a sous-vide slam & legs.
Lance Berkman – With his 19th and 20th home runs yesterday. Fine, I pulled the plug on him a little too early with my sell at the beginning of May. He did hit .262 in May and .210 in June, but the power doesn’t seem like it’s drying up. Though I still wouldn’t go out and trade for him.
Jon Jay – 3-for-5 and a homer. Has now hit in 6 of the last seven games with 2 homers. It’s something. Or it’something, if you’re in a rush.
Brett Cecil – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER. Man, that is a spot-on impersonation of Brett Cecil from April. What a gooftard!
Jeff Kartsens – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks. He reminds me of a National League version of Jason Vargas. It’s neither a compliment or an insult.
Justin Morneau – Underwent neck surgery and will be out until the end of August. I will Morneau-more for this schmohawk.
Jake Peavy – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks. Used to be when he was healthy he’d at least pitch well. He’s at a 4.47 ERA and you’re holding onto him for his name value. What, him being on your team is gonna get you a reservation at The French Laundry? Look elsewhere.
Gordon Beckham – 3-for-3 with his 7th home run. He hit .354 last July and had a much better 2nd half of the season. Okay, anyone could’ve had a better 2nd half than his 1st half, but still…
Adam Dunn – Ozzie batted him 3rd yesterday. That’s like the Melrose Place All-Stars hitting Marcia Cross, sans wig, third. BTW, Rudy and I had a fifteen minute conversation on IM yesterday about a Melrose Place All-Star lineup (25 episode minimum). Bisset’s leading off — you always want her to get on base. Courtney Thorne-Smith is hitting 2nd. Solid, reliable and can get the runner over. Locklear’s third, ’nuff said. Alyssa Milano’s hitting cleanup — always gets you to third, sometimes home. Brooke Langton is fifth as an unsung hero that could fall into a slump very easily. Daphne Zuniga’s sixth because she had some better years elsewhere (Spaceballs). Jamie Luner hitting seventh and catching…um…moving on. In the eight hole, Kristin Davis — annoying, pesky hitter. Finally, Kelly Rutherford can turn over the lineup. Laura Leighton did not make the lineup because she’s freakin’ crazy and ruined all team chemistry and keyed my car.
Wilson Betemit collided with Albert Pujols and… Why is Wilson Betemit playing?! He never plays. Doesn’t your Quad-A Beer Pong Tournament partner, Shelley Duncan, need you for a tourney? Manzo! (Which is my new favorite exclamation that means nothing.) Another tough break (strain?) for a high draft pick. You high draft picks remind me of my shoe closet — I got one penny and a bunch of loafers! (Thanks, Lil Penny.) Pujols supposedly only has a sprained wrist, but will be reevaluated on Monday. If it’s any more serious than a strain, I suggest Betemit enter the Witness Protection Program. Your deity of choice willing Pujols will be back on the field in a day or two. Luckily, Pujols has severed elbow tendons in the past and only missed one game. Manzo! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Lance Berkman – Didn’t start on Sunday because his back and leg were “barking.” Sounds like someone has figured out how to appeal to La Russa’s PETA leniencies.
Carl Crawford – Heads to the 15 day DL with a hamstring injury. Manzo! Crawford is now starring in “Hammy Dearest.” Maybe J.D. Drew got in Crawford’s ear. Drew, “Do you know they pay you the same amount whether you play all the games or take 30 of them off? Muahahahaha…Hey, you gonna finish that kale smoothie?” The Sawx will turn to McDonald, Cameron and Reddick, which is enough to remove the pleats from Dan Shaughnessy’s dockers. The good news, if there is any good news — why must there always be bad news first? Why?! — the hamstring strain isn’t serious and Carl should be flapping his gums back on the field with the minimum time missed.
Brian Matusz – Left his start on Saturday with cramps. Must be that time of the month.
Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 8 Ks. Of course you want slightly better vs. the Padres in the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome, but 8 Ks vs. 2 walks tells me he’s still headed in the right direction.
Aaron Hill – 1-for-4 with his 2nd home run this week. I’ll bestow on you a very lukewarm “Go ahead and pick him up if he’s on waivers, but I don’t think any major corner has been turned.” And that’s me bestowing on you!
Carlos Villanueva – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks. Chuck Newtown has a 3.17 ERA on the year, but that’s being buoyed by a solid run in middle relief earlier in the year. As a starter, he’s been just a’ight, which is less than a’ight and way off from a’ight a’ight. AL-Only leagues is about the only place I could see adding him for right now.
Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. Guess what time it is, ya’ll?! No, not 8:28 AM. I mean, it might be, but that’s not what I meant. It’s time to add Arroyo to your teams. In the last three years, his post-All-Star Break ERA is 3.09. Yup.
Brandon Lyon – To undergo season-ending surgery. If I said I was sad, I’d be Lyon. And, as we learned from Semisonic, every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end, so Melancon will take over the closer job. It’s closing time… BTW, if you’re at a bar where they play that at the end of the night, find a new place. However, if your girl suggested the bar, then consider yourself lucky, you got a good one.
Hunter Pence – Missed Saturday and Sunday’s games because of a sprained elbow. Sounds like he should be okay. Let’s hope so because I need him for my teams and I’m sure that’s his biggest concern right now.
Bud Norris – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks. Noob Hint Alert! If a guy has more strikeouts than innings, he’s good. When the pitcher is doing that and has a 3.26 ERA, he’s very good.
Ty Wigginton – 1-for-3 with a home run. When Wigginton hits one home run, what’s his over/under for homers for the week? I feel people in H2H leagues might want to know this. 3 homers this week? 4?
Wily Mo Peña – After hitting 21 home runs in something like 18 games in Triple-A, he’s getting called up this week to play DH. That’s the good news. Bad news is he’s not yet in Yahoo and by the time he’s added he may no longer be playing in the majors.
Vernon Wells – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 7th home run. He hit two home runs earlier this week, then everyone and my mother came out of the woodwork and said he’s a buy then he went 2-for-16 over his next 4 games then, to continue this run-on sentence, he hit a homer yesterday. At this point, you throw him in the pile of Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran and Chipper Jones. There will be times of decent fantasy value but don’t field the entire 2003 All-Star team.
Tyler Chatwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks. Besides having a last name that sounds like it would open up seven pop-up windows on your browser, he has way too many walks. Don’t bother with him, not worth the ulcer.
Brandon Belt – Had the cast removed from his left wrist. Inside, he found a metal hanger, a remote control and a coat check receipt.
Alex Rios – 1-for-4 with homers in back-to-back games. People kept asking in the comments if Rios would ever turn it around. Looks like he’s providing an answer.
Mike Stanton – Missed Saturday and Sunday’s game with an eye infection. My guess is Hanley farted on his pillow.
Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks. I highlighted him in the post the other day about pitchers who should be better. And he was better yesterday. See how that works?
Roger Bernadina – 3-for-4 with his 3rd home run in the last four games. The one game he didn’t go deep, he stole a base. In the last week, he’s hitting over .405, it’s Bernadina Bounty! He’s owned in less than 2% of all ESPN leagues. Sure, 95% of ESPN leagues are abandoned already, but it’s still too low. In 39 games, he has 4 homers and 10 steals. Over the course of the season, that’s better than that other guy you own. And him too.
Danny Espinosa – This weekend, 2 steals and a home run. Whatever, you don’t need that.
Clay Buchholz – To the DL with a lower back strain. Geez, lots of injuries this weekend. Reminds me of the time in 3rd grade when Little Joey Stanicky came to school with lice and knocked out half of our class with the head bugs.
Jair Jurrjens – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. Alexi Ogando (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks) in a battle of the seemingly stoppable force meets an immovable xFIP, illustrating the Irresistible Sell High Paradox.
Hong-Chih Kuo – With his anxiety disorder at bay, he was activated from the DL. You think the Dodgers are gonna put him in a tie game in the ninth inning? Scully, “Kuo’s first pitch is a ball. Looks like he’s pulling a samurai sword out… The first samurai sword was used in the 13th century. Its popularity was fueled by the rise of close-combat warfare. Wow, and there goes Loney’s head… Did you know some animals can survive decapitation? A cockroach, for instance. Guess we can safely say Loney is not a cockroach.”
Javy Guerra – The last time the Dodgers had a closer, Kuo saw a pile of baby powder and thought it was Broxton dehydrated like in the original Batman movie. Hopefully things work out better this time. Three ladies and gentlemen, Guerra recorded a save!
Jesus Guzman – 1-for-4, utility man who sounds like a character actor was called up by the Padres and started over Rizzo vs. a lefty. (Liriano, “I have a name.”) Hopefully, the Padres don’t sit Rizzo vs. many lefties cause that could hurt his value.
Alcides Escobar – 2-for-3 with a home run. Prior to that, 5 steals in 6 games. Potatoes to chips, he could steal 40 bases.
Casey McGehee – 1-for-3, not much to say here other than to say there hasn’t been much to say all year with McGehee. Last year doesn’t look as fluky as this year is making it look. I think he will turn things around a bit, but he’s not giving you anything besides some occasional power, so if he’s a .260 hitter with 15 home runs, it’s really not that great anyway.
Shaun Marcum – Left Friday’s start with hip inflammation. He was throwing butter with the ‘er’ up until this point in the season, so hopefully this isn’t that big of a setback. If you want, touch your computer screen with your hand and we’ll hold hands hoping Marcum can bounce back quick… Did you just put your nuts on the screen hoping I’d hold them? So juvenile.
The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. Today, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. Last time I looked at the starters that were being unlucky the list included: Dempster, Garza, Wood, Liriano, Narveson, Ervin, Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Bumgarner and Edwin Jackson. Bumgarner’s ERA went from 4.25 to 3.23; Edwin’s ERA went from 4.53 to 4.39; Hudson’s 4.41 to 3.82; Gallardo’s 5.11 to 3.96; 4.85 to 4.37 for Ervin; Narveson went 4.38 to 4.32; Wood went 5.28 to 5.38; Garza went 4.17 to 3.84 and Dempster went 7.20 to 5.48, i.e., there was only one pitcher who gained in ERA — Travis Wood. I.E. II, The Return of I.E.: Everyone did better except one guy. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Ryan Dempster – 2.17. Will continue to get better. Oh, and the two of the three unluckiest pitchers are Cubs. Blame Bartman! (BTW, there were some pitchers I left off of here that came with xFIPs that were better than their ERAs, but still terrible. Javier Vazquez come to mind.)
Chris Volstad – 1.96. Harumph, where did that name come from, huh? His K-rate is 6.72, which isn’t terrible, and his K to BB ratio recently has been solid. Worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he can right the ship and leave a few more men on base and stop having balls go through.
Matt Garza – 1.54. He has the 4th best xFIP in the league. Right after Halladay, Hamels and Cliff Lee. Maybe the Phils will trade for him.
Chris Carpenter – 1.05. I’ve spent a lot of energy on Razzball talking about how I don’t like Carpenter, so I won’t bore myself by rehashing. Instead, I’ll bore myself by talking about how I won’t rehash it. If you can get Carp on the cheap, it’s worth considering, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher.
Chris Narveson – 0.98. Has a real nice K-rate and his xFIP is below 3.50. The walks kinda drive me crazy though. If he’s on waivers, it’s worth a shot.
Derek Holland – 0.89. I really don’t like messing with Texas pitchers. I wouldn’t like to sit in the stands in 100 degree heat, let alone play in it. Now get off my lawn!
Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.80. Jackie Chiles thinks his walks have been egregious, and his K-rate has been down. On the more positive side, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher, but closer to a mid-3 guy.
I have come to the revelation that I watch way too many baseball games. On average in a week, I watch roughly 30-40 games. I am always looking for trends or nuisances that will aide, but not abet, my fantasy know how. The thing I watch most is pitching. Pitching is the most added and dropped position, based mostly because of depth. So depth is what I give you. I take guys that are owned in less than 50% of leagues and bring you my take on what they are and who they may be in the week ahead. I wish I had the power to give them wins in every start, but chasing wins is the axis of evil in fantasy. So use this low end guide to your advantage and go forth and make me proud. So here are the lesser owned two start fantasy baseball options for the upcoming week. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)
ONE START OPTIONS:
6/1
Josh Tomlin @Tor – Drabek
Mike Leake vs. Mil – Marcum
6/2
Carlos Carrasco vs. Tex – Harrison
Tim Stauffer vs. Hou – W. Rodriguez
6/3
Jason Vargas vs. TB – Hellickson
Carlos Villanueva @ Bal – Bergesen
Bud Norris @ SD – Moseley
Doug Fister (Bal vs. Arrieta, TB vs. Davis) Yeah, that’s what she said. Another pitcher that if he pitched for a better team we would prolly be rostered all over based on his numbers. If you’re going to chase wins, at least do it with a guy who will get you 5 K’s and decent peripherals. ERA under 3 at home.
Dillon Gee (Pit vs. Morton, Atl vs. Jurrjens) Prolly the best name for a baseball player since, Rusty Kuntz. Home ERA of 1.66. You could do a lot worse, i.e. about a 1/8 of an inch down.
Luke Hochevar (Ana vs. Santana, Min vs. Blackburn) The streetwalker’s barber. If I could find something good to say about him, I would. Umm… he pitches twice this week. If your league is deep enough, it could make sense.
Derek Holland (@TB vs. Davis, @Cle vs. Carmona) 2.51 ERA away from Arlington. Gives up way too many balls in play, BAA is .296. Is “due” for win. Has gone 6 starts without a decision, somewhere Jo-Jo Reyes makes a fist and screams.
Chris Narveson (@Cin vs. Wood, @Fla vs. Volstad) Oh Narvy, first it was Bud Norris that went out of his way to scorn my affection. Now it’s you. Seems like he pitches great than beats himself with the dreaded 6 run HR. ERA better away from the Brewery.
J.A. Happ (@CHC vs. Coleman, @SD vs. Harang) Love the K-rate, but the walks make me sad. You have to watch him to get frustrated with him, and who watches the ’Stros. Away ERA is abysmal but anchored by two bad starts early in the season.
Nick Blackburn (@Det vs. Penny, @KC vs. Hochevar) Last 5 starts, 3-0 21 K’s and an ERA of 1.72. Sounds good to me. Name still sound like a skin disease you contract from a trip to Venezuela.
Brad Penny (Min vs. Blackburn, @CHW vs. Danks) My grandma always said, “See a Penny, pick it up.” She also can’t read fantasy stat lines. K/9 and BB/9 are almost the same number. If you live under a rock (find a new place to stay), that’s never a good stat to have similar.
Chris Volstad (Ari vs. Saunders, @Mil vs. Narveson) Maybe it’s just me but I love all the Marlins starters. xFIP 2 runs lower than his ERA. Offers you some medium K potential, which is a lot better than rare.
Ryan Vogelsong (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Hammel) The newest veteran magician to suddenly appear on the fantasy scene. Numbers are just stupid, best of all is the .038 ERA at home.
