Fantasy Baseball Advice

September 1st is an exciting time for fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!).  Seasons change and it’s out with the old and in with new in baseball.  For us in the fantasy baseball trenches, September 1st means rosters expand and rookies are called up.  Unlike the September hitter call-ups I took my magical pencil to the other day, I’d use kid gloves with these pitching call-ups.  Pitchers can hurt you.  If you need to take a flier on a rookie pitcher, tread carefully, young Razzball reader.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call-ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball, the starters:

Jenrry Mejia – Was up in the beginning of the year as a reliever then was sent down to get stretched out.  Hey, I’m Mr. Exposition.  Not sure if the Mets will use Mejia in the majors this year as a starter, but I think they should.  Not because his stuff is dynamite (nor is it bad), but I think it’s foolhardy to use a guy as a reliever then as a starter then again as a reliever.  (BTW, foolhardy has no relation to J.J.)  If Mejia is in the rotation in September, he’ll have matchup appeal.

Aroldis Chapman – “I love Aroldis Chapman,” February Grey.  This year he’s in middle relief.  Though I’d grab him in keepers immediately.

Michael Pineda – Mentioned only to say he won’t be called up this year, but you can take a flier on him in keepers for next year.  Look at Stephen’s Pineda fantasy for a more in-depth look.

Yunesky Maya – About three weeks ago, I pushed Maya a little too early in one of my Buy columns.  Hey, better early than late as people who have unprotected sex say.  Maya’s another guy I’d definitely grab in keepers; I’d be shocked if he wasn’t in the rotation next year.  For this year, I like him, but need to see how many starts he’ll get.  Right now, he’s slated for only one start.  Yippee-kay-whatever.

Jordan Lyles – Very young, but being promoted aggressively.  In Stephen’s Scouting the Unknown about Lyles, he said, “(H)e has a ceiling of a number two starter and a baseline of a number three starter.  I’d say the Astros have a pretty good prospect on their hands.”  And that’s me quoting Stephen!  I’d grab him in all dynasty leagues and NL-Only keepers now.  I wouldn’t expect too much this year in redraft leagues.

Simon Castro – I already own him in a deep keeper.  Why, you ask yourself in your library voice so no one thinks you’re talking to yourself.  He’s the top arm in the Padres’ minor league system.  If you need more, you haven’t been following along for the last 3 years.

Zach McAllister – I imagine he’ll be called up, but I won’t be owning him anywhere this year (and probably not next year either).  Right now, he looks like a number 3 starter in his prime.  At 22, he’s not in his prime.

Carlos Torres – Already called up.  He’ll probably be a solid endgame sleeper next year in AL-Only leagues, if he grabs a rotation spot.  In AL-Only leagues and keepers, I could definitely see grabbing him this year.  He won’t be more than matchups in mixed and redraft leagues, if even that.

Zach Britton – Doubtful if he gets called up this year.  He’s number 12 on the top 50 fantasy baseball prospects so could be worth a grab in dynasty leagues.

Chris Tillman – For those keeping score at home, yes, the Orioles should have a great rotation sometime in the near future.  For right now, I wouldn’t touch Tillman outside of AL-Only or keeper leagues.

Tanner Scheppers – Besides his constant complaining about having to tediously carry around tchotkes in the hot sun, he has a great K-rate, but will just be in the bullpen.  Could be an exciting middle man this year…. Okay, middle men aren’t that exciting.  Think Feliz last year.

Welcome to the real second half. Not that 4 game H2H sprint where you lose to the last place team cause he had 3 guys carry his week, one of them named Molina. I am back from my much needed vacation funded by Razzball. Grey is so gracious to give me 52 weeks off a year, because this isn’t work, this is a hobby. The second half, albeit not exactly half which would make it more like 17/32nds, starts with a really full first week. As I was going through the probable pitchers, I wondered what 12 days rest would mean to most of these guys. In most cases, not much, but in some cases it could prove beneficiary (was the word of the day on my calender so I had to use it). In other cases, take note that some pitchers will be rusty this week, so expect a spike in the peripherals. Here’s the week 16, two start, low rent starters for fantasy baseball:

R.A. Dickey (Ari vs. Enright) (@Lad vs. Kershaw)
The gleam is off the Dickey my friends. Last 3 starts, 0-2 with a no decision. Sounds like we should bail on him. Look deeper, has only given up 4 earned runs. Mets will score runs this week. Decent first matchup.

Wade LeBlanc (Atl vs. Jurrjens) (@Pit vs. Lincoln)
Wade the White, sounds like a Wizard. No home games and I still put him up here. Is prolly going to go 1-1, with 10k’s for the week, only problem is ERA is doubled on the road.

Kyle Kendrick (@StL vs. Hawksworth) (Col vs. Jimenez)
1 good start 2 bad seems like a pattern with him, first start here would restart the cycle. Gets a tough one with his second start against Bald Jim. Low K potential, gets killed by lefties. Has lowered ERA half a run over the last month.

Dan Hudson (@Sea vs. Pauley) (@Oak vs. Sheets)
Got the first start out of his system. Gets 2 great matchups. 10.4 k/9 rate in the minors is saying something. (9.99 leads majors). Patience is the key here, is going to be a good #2 in the future.

Blake Hawksworth (Phi vs. Kendrick) (ChC vs. Gorzellany)
The best superhero real name of all time. Has lowered ERA every start since mid-June. BAA is hovering around .300, ugh. 4k’s a game is okay considering he only pitches 5 innings a start. I would stash him for the Cubs start, but that’s just me.

Jeff Francis (@Fla vs. Robertson) (@Phi vs. Moyer)
Battling is the best I can say with Francis. Hitting that first wall after injury. All-Star break suits him good. Colorado looks like a different team to me lately, ones that wants to go to the playoffs. The Padres really can’t hold on, can they?

Dave Bush (@Pit vs. Lincoln) (Was vs. Atilano)
I would still say we should run from it, but look at the matchups. Gets no stud opposing SP, can be mediocre and let the bats win him the games. 2.78 ERA in last 10 games…Hmmm, very interesting.

Chris Tillman (TB vs. Davis) (Min vs. Baker)
Was a toss up here, as both he and Arrieta double up. I like his 2 matchups better, but they are still the O’s. Comes off first win high, pitched great versus a great hitting team. Good mechanics, smooth delivery. Future rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton and Hobgood With Erbe closing, nice. Damn, AL East.

James McDonald (SF vs. Bumgarner) (NyM vs. Pelfrey)
My snoozer of the week. Your typical 3 earned in 6 innings, 6 K kinda guys. Sounds good to me. Gets the hated Giants, and the scuffling hand licker (there’s video to back this up) Pelfrey. Good roll of the dice gets 2 cozy home starts at Chavez.

Scott Feldman (@Det vs. Bonderman) (Laa vs. Pineiro)
Texas hits well. WHIP disaster. Will win games 10-7, with him giving up all 7 runs. Brother Corey is not pleased one bit. Free piece of advice, don’t chase wins.

Jake Peavy was walking off the field before the trainers even got to him.  On a scale of bad signs, that’s around a 9.  That’s on a scale of 1 to 8.  The good news is it’s not his arm.  It’s his dorsi muscle.  Peavy’s a dolphin?  Put down your noisemakers, it’s not that good of news.  To paraphrase Ludacris, “Peavy back bad, Peavy not good… Peavy back don’t do stuff that yo’ back do… (Repeat chorus 17 times.)”  Daniel Hudson, rocking a 3.47 ERA in a hitters’ park in the minors, could get the call if Peavy needs a DL stint.  You know that guy you see when you search for Tim Hudson on the waiver wire?  That’s him!  He has more than a K/IP in the minors, though his control is iffy at times.  He’s worth a pick up in AL-Only or deep mixed keeper leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Aaron Harang – Headed to the DL with back spasms.  Dusty said, “If he dies, he dies,” while wrapped in a Reds flag.

Yovani Gallardo – To the DL with an oblique strain.  Won’t be back until the end of the month as YoGa tries to get stretched out.  Namaste.

Brad Penny – I faintly remember him pitching this year.  He was good, wasn’t he?  He was shut down during a simulated game, experiencing more soreness.  Can’t Dave Duncan rub his hands together and touch the pain?

Felipe Lopez – 2-for-5 with a homer as he hits near .450 in the last week.  Or “For Fiddy,” if you’re sending a care package to the G-Unit.

Ryan Franklin – 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Ouch… Wait, what?  Oh.  Ow.

Edwin Encarnacion – 3-for-4 with a homer.  All he does is hit (when he’s first called up then disappears into oblivion).

Delmon Young – 3-for-3.  Now hitting over .400 in July after a .320 June.  Know what would be nice?  If he were batting higher than 8th.

Carl Pavano – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  That, sir, is no line from a man with a mustache.  Shave immediately!

Joe Mauer – 1-for-4 with his 4th homer.  His homer totals from 2005 to 2009 were:  9, 13, 7, 9, 28.  Does one number look off?  Yeah, well how come you didn’t listen when February Grey told you that?

Clayton Richard – 6 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Thursday’s afternoon post was going to be about how Clay-T Richard, along with a bunch of other SPs, were pitching over their head.  Consider this a preview.

Mat Latos – Here’s Bud Black for the last three months.  Latos won’t be limited, won’t be limited, won’t be limited, then yesterday he said he’d probably be limited.

Ryan Zimmerman – 3-for-4 with 2 homers after he took the better part of June off.  I missed your touch, Black Keys.

Jayson Nix – Hit his 4th homer in the last four games.  If you’re struggling to catch a spark at MI, I’d grab Nix and ride the heat.

Johan Santana – 9 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and a homer.  This year Johan has one homer every 30 ABs.  Jason Bay has a homer every 50 ABs.  Cust kayin’.

Jose Reyes – 2-for-4 as he returned to action.  He was running hard, not favoring any side (back?) pain.

Matt Diaz – 3-for-5.  It’s Dye-as.  Lefty killer.  Anyone who’s read this site for a long time knows that I’ve always liked Diaz as a platoon outfielder. (Play him against his strong side, sit vs. weak side.  Rinse, repeat.)

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  For a while, it was touch and go while it looked like Brian Moehler was ghost riding the Wandwagon, but now it looks like he’s back.

Carlos Lee – Hit a homer yesterday along with Lance Berkman.  Must’ve been throwback night at The Juicebox.  Did Jeff Bagwell throw out the first pitch underhanded because of a hurt shoulder?

Jeff Niemann – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He shouldn’t be pitching this well.  If you’ve heard that before, it’s because I’ve written it before.

Kosuke Fukudome – Hit his 2nd homer in 2 games.  Here’s what I wrote yesterday, “…he gets crazy hot for a week or two at a time.”  And that’s me copying and pasting me!

Aramis Ramirez – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  Too bad anyone in their right mind has either dropped or benched him by now.

Aaron Heilman – 1 IP, 2 ER.  I’d say Kazaam!, but Kirk Gibson went into a press conference the other day fist pumping and said, “I have no idea who the closer is.  Maybe it’s Qualls, maybe it’s that lady in the front row of all the games that had me sign her breast.  These things haven’t been decided yet.”  I think Qualls gets first look, then Front Row Lady.

Alex Rodriguez – 2-for-3 with 2 homers.  On pace for 120 RBIs, less than 30 homers and like no steals.  Feels like he still hasn’t had one crazy hot streak, so he can easily bump up his numbers to 35 homers and 10 steals.  In other words, same shizz, different year.

Jose Guillen – Left the game with an injury, probably will head to the DL.  Maybe the Royals can now trade him for Mike Jacobs.

Wilson Betemit – 3-for-4 and his 4th homer in 19 games.  The Royals are playing him, as they should.  You should consider it too.

Jhoulys Chacin – 3 IP, 4 ER in middle relief as he makes room for de la Rosa, who’s due back this Friday.  In NL-Only leagues and deep keepers, I’d hold Yo-lease with his nasty K/9.

Chris Iannetta – Now has 3 homers in his last six games.  Unfortunately, those six games are separated by 11 days.  From the files of Sad, But True:  Iannetta has only one less homer than Wieters.

Seth Smith – 3-for-4 with his 12th homer.  Putting together a nice year as long as you sit him vs. lefties.  Ooh, I know!  Trade Matt Diaz to the Rockies and let him platoon with Smith.

Vicente Padilla – After a typical start, after a 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks start.

Matt Kemp – 2-for-5 with a home run and two steals.  Or as it’s more commonly known, a slam & legs.

Alex Rios – 1-for-3 with a home run.  I told you to sell him at the very end of May.  In June, 2 homers and 5 steals with a .297 average.  In July, 1 homer and 1 steal with a .176 average.  So 3 homers and 6 steals with a .280 average.  I think we can agree there’s guys with less name value giving you the same.

Madison Bumgarner – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Brewers who have only scored three runs in the last three games.  Mad-Bum’s pitching better than I thought he would.  I’d absolutely grab him in mixed leagues, but you run the risk of getting roofied at any point.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit his 21st homer as he took a late hit off The Sauce.  Alfredo, that is.

Armando Galarraga – Sent to the minors.  I wonder if he’ll drive his Corvette.

Felix Pie – 2-for-6 in his return to the lineup.  So what’s to like about Pie?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  In AL-Only and deep mixed leagues, I’d take a flyer.

Chris Tillman – Should replace the DL’d Millwood.  Tillman started 4 games earlier this year and gave up 14 earned runs in 15 innings with his worst start coming in San Fran.  I wouldn’t pick up Tillman with your team.

Nick Markakis – 5 HRs, 2 SBs on the year.  Evidently, he’s a hypochondriakakis and gleaned from Luke Scott and Brian Roberts that hitting HRs and stealing bases leads to injuries.

Kevin Youkilis – Left the game with ankle pain after clearing the plate with his foot.  The last Red Sox that got hurt clearing the plate was Sam Horn who pulled his abdomen partaking in a pie-eating contest.

I am slightly distracted now that the World Cup has started. I know you’ll say, “Smokey, Americans don’t watch soccer.” True, but you should. The game yesterday between the U.S and England had more money wagered on it than the Super Bowl and will be watched by more people worldwide. That’s huge for a first round game in the Copa. Anyways, back to my true passion — imaginary baseball. This week sees several retread names to the Smokey posts and a couple that have been shown the door by you in your leagues (for good reason). So here we go with all the fanfare and glitz that it is supposed to have, the week 11 two start starters for fantasy baseball:

Freddy Garcia (@ Pit vs. Lincoln) (@ Was vs. Lannan)
Freddy, I apologize that I said you were crap 3 weeks ago, I’m glad my words motivated you recently. He’s the road warrior this week. Garcia is 19-8 with a 2.82 career in interleague play. Doesn’t K many and will be thankful for good run support. Still loved him more when he needed Soul Glo.

Chris Tillman (@ SF vs. Sanchez) (@ SD vs. Richard)
Gets away from the AL Beast to where the lineups get shorter. I like him a lot long term. Watched him twice in person and he has the goods to completely dominate a game. Two weaker hitting teams may be his kick start.  He still pitches for the Orioles, which is detrimental too anyone’s fantasy health.

Justin Masterson (NYM vs. Santana) (@ Pit vs. Lincoln)
Still love this kid, and he showed you why and how he can be helpful by completely dominating his former club. Gets a great ballpark and a great matchup for his 2 starts. The rebuilding has started around him so it may not get any better support-wise. 2 starts are worth the risk even if it might come with a 5 ERA for the week.

Felipe Paulino (@ KC vs. Davies) ( Tex vs. Wilson)
Gets a whole article written about him after I wrote about him… Hmm, we have some great “pirate” readers. His numbers are hidden behind a 1-7 record.  Shame he plays for a cellar dwellar. Last 6 starts since 5/14, he is 1-1 27 K’s 1.75 ERA. Yeah, that’s what I said.

Aaron Harang (LAd vs. Kuroda) (@ Sea vs. Snell)
Another guy that I have not spoke about glowingly.  It’s like a week of revenge 2 start guys. I’m not going to lie and say he is awesome now and his numbers are awesome. They aren’t. 2 decent matchups and 3 decent starts out of 4. Still gives up way too many hits and isn’t the K machine he once was.

Ian Kennedy (@ Bos vs. Buchholz) (@ Det vs. Porcello)
Has pitched way better than his record of 3-3.  Bullpen just kills his starts. Gets 2 starts away against teams who can either kill the ball or lay dead and let you tickle their feet. 7.8 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.18 is worth taking notice.

Joe Saunders (Mil vs. Wolf) (@Chc vs. Zambrano)
Pitched a Gem on Wednesday. 35/34 K/BB rate sucks all the life out if his fantasy value. 2 ER over the last 16 innings makes him semi-rosterable. Gets 2 pitchers that are scuffling and both have been, to be quite honest, sucking out loud.

Aaron Cook (@ MIN vs. Pavano) (Mil vs. Wolf)
Yeah, I know I’m running out of decent option to wax poetic about. He has lowered his ERA a run over his last 5 starts, which is still near 5. Uses his blinker as well as hand signals when making turns, so he has safety of others in mind.

The Nats will probably bring Stephen Strasburg into Washington in the bubble car with the albino John Lannan charged with throwing rose petals at his feet.  This was recently overheard in the Nats bathroom sometime in the near future, “Um, John, do you think you can stop with the petals?”  “Stephen, it’s my duty.”  “Yeah, well, this is my doodie and I’m going to be about 20 minutes.”  “Fair enough, sire!”  I went over Strasburg for fantasy already.  Been there, drunkenly wrote that.  I’m not changing my projections from that post.  A three and a half ERA seems optimistic enough.  Could he do a 2.75 ERA?  Sure, but I’m not counting on that.  I’m already giving him what I think we can get from Greinke.  So a 3.50 ERA… Let’s see, who else could bring such luster to our fantasy El Camino.  In 303 and a third 2nd half innings over the last three years, Bronson Arroyo has a 3.06 ERA.  Would anyone in their right mind trade Strasburg for Arroyo?  Not right now.  The hype is way too strong with the young Austrian.  Today, I think you can sell Strasburg for someone’s kidney.  I’m not sure what you’d do with three kidneys.  Maybe a bookend.  Think about how you felt owning Matusz, Smoak, Ike Davis, etc. (BTW, isn’t it sad how “etc.” is always last?) before they appeared in one game.  Now think about how you feel about those rookies after a month plus?  In my 20 team league, someone just dropped Matusz and in another league I’m glad I traded Smoak the day after I picked him up.  Yes, I’m telling you to sell Strasburg if you can get the right deal.  I don’t think Strasburg will be droppable in two months, but I also don’t think his hype will reach his value.  Of course, ignore the previous paragraph in keeper leagues, unless you’re Steve Phillips.  In keeper leagues, you rename your team, The House of Strasburg and you dine on fine wines and hard to pronounce cheeses.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Will Ohman – The O’s bullpen looks like Rocky Dennis trying to get dressed up for a semi-casual night out with a girl he likes.

Frank Mata – The Mata Hari of SAGNOF!  (BTW, SAGNOF doesn’t stand for Smoking Ain’t Got No Face if we have any Indonesian toddlers reading.)

Trevor Hoffman – I see he’s been dropped in almost 25% of ESPN leagues.  Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, the Brewers will try to get Hoffman back into the ninth inning.  It’s a long season; he can still save 20 more games this year.

Kerry Wood – Why is he not owned in every league?  All of you can’t be playing in 8 team leagues.  Though I do think I’m probably preaching to choir.  If you read Razzball, you probably own Wood (the player) and Perez, so carry on.  Or carry on your head if you’re Jamaican.

Zach Braddock – More of an NL-Only, keeper or league that uses middle reliever pickup.  His stuff makes nasty say, “Damn.”

Neil Walker – Yeah, this guy’s the bee’s knees.  Meaning of course, bee’s don’t have knees and you probably shouldn’t have Neil Walker either.  In NL-Only leagues, this pickup is a’ight.

Chris Iannetta – Just went over him in a roundup.  Want more?  Read what I just wrote.

Carlos Santana – Now I’d grab him.  Do I expect the second coming of Mike Piazza?  No.  I also don’t expect Darrell Porter, Male Escort.  Ad nauseam I’ve been saying if you want to know how much you can get from The Supernatural catcher look at Matt Wieters last year, or even this year.  In the end, Santana is still a catcher so don’t cut anyone too great for him.

Felipe Lopez – If it ain’t good ol’ Felopezian sucking from the productive teet.  I don’t expect Lopez to have immense value, but then again how’s EverCab treating you?

Rickie Weeks – To answer that small man in the back of your brain that keeps whispering bad thoughts, yes, I like Weeks better than Felipe Lopez.

Trevor Crowe – He has some speed, but no matter how faceless steals are I wouldn’t grab Crowe outside of AL-Only leagues.

Luis Durango – While Crowe is an AL-Only SAGNOF’er, Durango can be mixed league material if he gets every day playing time because he will run more.  I mean, that is his one contribution.

Jose Lopez – I know he’s been badder than bad so far, but, and this is a big “but” with J. Lo, for the last two years, he hasn’t started hitting until June.  Otherwise known as next week.

Hisanori Takahashi – Might not be a long term pickup, but worth grabbing for his start vs. the Padres and then taking it from there.  So I like him, but not completely gung ho, which is also the number one massage parlor in Japan.

Brandon Morrow – His K/9 is 11.70, his men left on base and BABIP have both been unlucky.  His FIP is below 4.  Morrow’s a man of constant sorrow.  So what’s the downside?  His walks are Follie Perez bad.  Worth a shot in certain leagues where you’re thirsty for Ks and can spare the WHIP.

Jorge de la Rosa – Seeing people drop him in some leagues.  Well, better for you astute Razzball reader because he’s coming back by mid to late-June.  Astute Razzball reader, “What should we expect from him?”  I thought you were the astute one.

SELL

Chris Tillman – You want a rookie pitcher?  Try John Ely.  He’s in the NL and faces the Giants, Diamondhacks and Padres.

Alex Rios – In the top five on ESPN’s Player Rater are Ubaldo, Braun, Vlad, Rios and Longoria.  Vlad may not belong in that select group, but at least he’s getting value from hitting homers, which is something he can do.  Rios is the bigger sore thumb.  His homers are sky high for him, literally.  He’s never stole more than 32 bases before and his career high in homers is 24.  At some point, the Rios we all know and despise will return with a turd nugget.  I wouldn’t trade him for a dinner-date with your senile Aunt Lucy, but I’d explore trades.

Tim Hudson – Before yesterday’s game, he had 27 Ks and 25 walks, his men left on base has been absurd, his BABIP is silly and his team isn’t exactly the pillar of good support.  I’m not sure if anyone’s buying Hudson for anything on his own, but he might put another deal over the top.  Your leaguemate, “I don’t know if I want to trade Prince to you for F-Her.  Maybe we can just be friends.”  You, “How about I throw in Tim Hudson and I’ll let you hold me afterwards?”