Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yoenis Cespedes homered in yesterday’s second day of kinda real baseball played about six hours before I wake up.  I wonder where Cespedes is being drafted now.  When Rudy and I took our giant beach balls to early March drafts and took Cespedes in a bunch of drafts, he was going cheap.  I wonder if now all those other ‘perts are suddenly stepping up because others are excited about him.  I wonder if everyone else is a Monday morning quarterback with their advice.  I wonder if Yoenis will hit 30 mistake pitch homers.  I wonder if he’ll make adjustments and hit for a decent average too.  I wonder how this would sound read by Morgan Freeman.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training (and real baseball) for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing, but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Mike Carp – Mike Sashimi ended up on the DL after one game playing in Japan.  He should’ve never said, “Come on, pal!  Fugu me!”

Jason Vargas – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I think Vargas is gonna have one of those seasons where you think because he’s the Mariners’ number two that he’s gonna take a number two on your stats, but he won’t.  For now, I’ll call him a Marginer with future appeal.

Jesus Montero – 1-for-3 as he started his 2nd straight game at DH.  Uh-oh.  I was hoping to see Montero start at least one of these games at catcher, but now it’s looking like he may only start when Olivo rests, which would mean once or twice a week behind the plate for Montero and mid-May for catcher eligibility.

Dustin Ackley – 0-for-4, knocking his season pace down to 81/81, but will probably come closer to 8/8, which looks like what Dorothy Hamill would put after her signature.

Justin Smoak – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Is there anything more satisfying than a home run for a guy you pick for two games before the season (actually) starts?  It was almost as satisfying to drop him right after.  It was like a one night stand where everyone has the same expectations.  (I promise you when there’s a full slate of games I won’t talk this much about the A’s and M’s.)

Jonathan Broxton – Royals are leaning towards Broxton for the closer role.  Perhaps a see-saw isn’t the fairest way to determine who should get saves.  Broxton is such a wild card at this point that you have to hold onto Holland in most leagues until he shows some level of dominance/health.

Carl Crawford – Looking at returning at the end of April.  With a wrist injury, I’d choose to March.  Valentine said he’ll only need 50 ABs in rehab, I said, “No, no, no.”

Bobby Abreu – The Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles Angels almost got rid of the Abreu-tross from around their DH neck last night.  He came inches from being an Indian, but now the chances of it happening have reduced to 50%.  If it happens, it’s better for both clubs.  I’m just not sure how much better it will be for Kendrys’s playing time.  Abreu wasn’t stealing much time from him anyway.  Stealing time from Kendrys is the fact that he missed 273 games in the last two years because he celebrates like a buffoon.  Angels have already said Kendrys will sit vs. lefties because of health.  Not because of the sourpuss with the big contract that they can’t get rid of.  Yeah, I used the word sourpuss.  Now get off my lawn!

Freddy Sanchez – Expected to start the year on the DL.  Welcome to the club, we expected that in October of 2010.  That’s like predicting a fart two years from now will smell.

Jeff Samardzija – Won a spot in the Cubs’ rotation.  He’ll be in the first Buy/Sell of the season later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.

Brian Wilson – Bochy said Wilson was never scratched on Wednesday, he wasn’t supposed to pitch.  So Brian Wilson owners can Smile.

Chris Perez – In five pitches, he threw a complete inning.  After the game, he said, “The quicker the inning, the more time for mullet grooming.”  He should be fine for Opening Day (The One Not Starting Between 3 AM and 6 AM.)

Scott Podsednik – Told reporters he’s not making the Phils’ roster with them opting for Juan Pierre.  Can’t him and Juan Pierre get into one pair of Ryan Howard’s pants and be a stealing hybrid that sounds like a French revolutionary, Robspierre.

Adam LaRoche – Returned to the Nats lineup after nursing a foot injury for, like, two weeks.  Is it me or is LaRoche always hurt?  He should change his name to Adam LaOuch.

Carl Pavano – A police search warrant revealed that a classmate of Pavano threatened to reveal a homosexual affair with the pitcher if he didn’t buy him an SUV.  I’ll never look at his porn mustache the same.

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

Jason Bourgeois was traded to Royals with Humberto Quintero.  Fun fact:  Did you know Humberto Quintero weighs exactly a quarter more than Humberto Quadtero?  When the trade was announced, Bourgeois said he’d once and for all bring down the tyrannical rule of the Royals and restore a society where Lorenzo Cain lost 75 to 100 at-bats and The Guido Playing 2nd Base lost 100 at-bats.  Bourgeois insists that a free market system for steals is essential to their success.  Then Bourgeois doffed his powdered wig and asked Yuniesky Betancourt to bring him some unpasteurized cheese.  Chop, chop, Piss Boy!  This trade doesn’t flat out kill Cain…Sugar!’s value.  It sure doesn’t help it.  As I mentioned to someone in the comments right after this trade went down, Cain…Sugar! needs to perform well in April to be worth the draft gamble and if he performs well, then he’ll play and Bourgeois will see at-bats at 2nd or all over the field.  I don’t think Bourgeois is worth a grab in mixed leagues yet, but he can quickly get on radars because of his ability to steal.  SAGNOF!  If you were looking at The Guido Playing 2nd Base for a late round flyer, he’s still worth it too.  He’s in the similar predicament as Cain…Sugar!.  If Giavotella hits in April, he’ll get playing time.  If he didn’t hit, you’d drop him with or without Bourgeois.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  It’s fine to drop him in all leagues, except leagues that have a category for damaged ulnar collateral ligaments.  In that league, you’ve got an early lead!  Go pick up Brandon Webb in case he latches on with a team.  There’s still been no clarity on the Royals closing shituation.  Holland’s better, Broxton has experience, Crow doesn’t seem likely in front of either guy.  I’m going with Holland first, and both of them in some leagues where I feel light on saves.

Derek Jeter – Has a minor calf injury.  If he had a major calf injury, I’d say, “Don’t have a cow, man!”  And we’d laugh.  Oh, would we laugh.  You and I.  Are you gonna finish that peach pie?  You know Grey likes peach pie?  Jeter should return by Friday.

Nick Swisher – Left a game with groin tightness.  In related news, A-Rod gets groin tightness when he looks at Jeter.

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now it’s being reported that Bard is headed back to the bullpen.  I’d say I told you so… Well, I just kinda did.

Dontrelle Willis – Orioles signed Willis to a minor league deal.  He was always good with the bat; it’s not too late for him to become a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Braun – Has a groin injury that he blamed on FedEx.  He should be back in the next few days, assuming FedEx gets their shizz together!

Michael Morse – His lat strain may cause him to miss a few games at the start of the season.  I’m not concerned at this point.  If he misses a week in April, it’ll all be forgotten by May.  Or beep, beep, dot, dot, slash in Morse code.

Neftali Feliz – From the files of, “Actually interesting news if I didn’t tell you to not draft him anyway,” Feliz has shoulder issues.  A closer moving into the rotation + shoulder problems = Gummi Worms.  Shoot, I did that math wrong.  It was supposed to add up to “Stay away from at drafts.”

Chris Carpenter – Felt neck discomfort yesterday.  Now seems all but certain that he’ll start the year on the DL.  Carpenter’s fans feel like it’s a rainy day or Monday.

Kyle Lohse – Will start Opening Day for the Cardinals.  Hey, Cards fans, there’s still a chance to go 161-1!

Hisashi Iwakuma – Will start the year in the bullpen.  M’s rotation will be Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood.  Hey, M’s fans, there’s still a chance to go 20-142!  On a side note, Rudy came up with a Mariner version of the Hodgepadre for our glossary… A Marginer.  A Marginer is any mediocre pitcher on the Mariners that’s worth owning when they start in Seattle.  Similar to Hodgepadre.  Most Marginers are Homeschoolers.  Not to be confused with ex-Mariner closer Mike Schooler.

David Wright – Word out of Port St. Lucie is, doesn’t Port St. Lucie sound like an after-dinner drink?  Also, Wright could play this weekend.  I don’t think he’s out of the woods yet.  And I’m not sure if the breadcrumb trail out of the woods is gonna lead to a 60-day DL stint or 140+ games played with weak power because he’ll be nursing an injury, but I’m not excited about either scenario.

Johan Santana – Only gave up one run in six innings, but whatever with that.  I ignore spring stats, but what I’d focus on is he was only in the high-80′s with his fastball.  That wouldn’t even win a SpongeBob at the local carnival.  I still have a hard time recommending him as a late draft gamble.  I think this year’s best case scenario is Johan throws 170 IP and gets about 140 Ks and around a 3.50 ERA.  Basically, you’re hoping for Vogelsong/Mike Leake-type projections.

Orlando Hudson – You shouldn’t even be drafting O-Dog, but if you were thinking about it, he’s having groin problems.  Speaking of groins, Wang’s gonna miss over a month.  (BTW, if this is your first day reading Razzball, we’re not always this fascinated with groins.  Not that we have anything against them… I mean, we’d have something against them if the situation presented itself… Okay, moving on…)

Shaun Marcum – Won’t miss any time in the rotation coming out of the gate because of his previously inflammed shoulder. To summarize in a pithy fashion, Marcum down to start.

Chris Perez – Threw batting practice yesterday and will be more than ready for Opening Day.  You know who this makes happy?  Chris Perez’s son.

Mike Adams – Joe Nathan has looked like a beast this spring.  I’m not using “like a beast” in some cool, hip phrasing.  Do I seem cool or hip to you?  I have a mustache, for crikey’s sake!  I mean, he’s looked like a beast as Mary Shelley would’ve liked that phrase used.  If you heard the podcast yesterday, you know this already.  By early summer, Nathan’s headed for the Disgraceful List and Adams will be the closer.  I’d be more surprised if it happened later than early summer than early early summer.  Glad I clarified that!

Carlos Marmol – Left a game with a hand cramp, but the MRI showed no nerve damage.  To get rid of his cramps, the doctor told him to eat a pint of ice cream and watch Sex and the City reruns.

The Mets doctors said Johan Santana would miss a start or two.  That was a year ago.  He’s still working his way back.  The Mets doctors said Jose Reyes would miss a weekend series in 2009, he missed three months.  The Mets doctors said Carlos Beltran would miss a game in 2009; it took him two years to come back.  The other day someone asked me for money for Doctors Without Borders so they could help people in The Congo.  Why isn’t there a lady in front of Whole Foods asking me to donate to find a cure for David Wright?  Because I sure don’t trust the Mets doctors.  Film a PSA with Chipper Jones and Julie Andrews and show that shizz before movies.  “I’m Julie Andrews.”  “And I’m Chipper Jones”  Both, “And David Wright needs our help.”  The Mets are saying Wright has a tear in his left side and Mets fans have a tear in their eyes.  Word on the street is Wright has a similar injury to Ryan Zimmerman’s last year when he missed two months.  The prognosis, if prognosis is the right word, is not good.  Wright is saying he can be ready by Opening Day.  I say great, terrific, other sarcastic word, I don’t want to draft him anywhere.  If Della Reese touches his bat while dressed as an angel and Wright gets 500 ABs this year, how good do you think those 500 ABs are gonna be?  Do you think he’s going to show power?  If 22 homers were the low end for his projections, I’d be surprised if he breaks 17 homers now.  What if when he slides, he feels pain in his side?  He’s not going to be stealing bases.  You see Wright there in the 5th round now, I say pass.  Yes, third base just got shallower.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Salvador Perez – Tweaked his knee badly and the Royals sent him for an MRI.  I liked Perez late in drafts, so I went looking around for updates on this injury and ended up at the Kansas City Star.  Their article started with this line, “The Royals awaited word Tuesday night on the status of their $7 million catcher.”  It was funny — and by funny I mean not funny at all — to me how that was the attention grabber in KC.  KC is fretting over seven million dollars that is over five years.  Yeah, parity is alive and well.   Well, whatever the case is, it’s bad news for Perez.  He has a meniscus tear and will need surgery.  As of this writing, there was no timetable for his return, but I’m guessing six to eight weeks.  I’d avoid him in all leagues.  Too bad, so sad.

Desmond Jennings – Collided with B.J. Upton and both needed to be carted off the field.  This is the worst B.J. related news since that girl with the braces… Well, you remember.  Jennings says he’s fine and should be back on the field in a day or two.

B.J. Upton – On the other side of that collision, Fellatio Upton took the worse of it.  Yet, he too says he’ll be fine after a couple of days.  He’s just dealing with general soreness.  General Soreness is his bodyguard.

Freddy Garcia – Hit with a comebacker.  He told A-Rod he slept with his ex, and A-Rod said, “Yeah, well, that ex was really a man!”  *checking notes*  Hmm, seems like he was hit with a different kind of comebacker, one off a bat.  The X-rays came back negative, which is actually bad news because it means he can keep pitching.

Tim Hudson – Cleared to throw a bullpen session, but will still be out until at least the first few weeks of the season.  Bring on Randall Delgado!

Bryce Harper – Told reporters that he doesn’t expect to make the club.  Then the next day, Nats GM Rizzo (not Anthony) told reporters Harper could still have a shot.  We have a Razzball exclusive as to what really went down.  Harper to reporters, “I’m not making the club.”  Rizzo to Harper, “We’re trying to sell frickin’ tickets to frickin’ fans to see frickin’ Nats games and you’re telling them you’re not playing?!  Shut your pie hole!”  Rizzo to reporters, “He’s still in the picture. We’re still early in the decision-making process.”  Riiiiiiight.  That’s seven I’s.

John Lannan – Mike Rizzo said he’s fielded several calls on Lannan, but are not shopping him.  He must’ve learned how to neg from The Game.

Chris Perez – Threw from 150 feet yesterday.  Looks like the Indians found a Grady Sizemore replacement.  It’s sounding more and more likely that Perez will be ready to go for Opening Day.

Lance Lynn – With Carpenter almost definitely maybe heading to the DL to start the season, Lynn looks to move his way into the rotation.  Out of the bullpen last year, Lynn’s fastball regularly touched the high-90′s as he put up a 2.22 ERA and 32 Ks in 24 1/3 IP.  As a starter, he was much less exciting (5.23 ERA, 8 Ks), but like a man who needs prunes that was in limited duty (10 1/3 IP).  From his minor league track record, we see a guy who has a 7+ K-rate and moderate control.  In NL-Only and very deep mixed leagues, I’d grab Lynn late to see if he can surprise in an early season role with the Cards.  There’s a chance for some sweet, sweet upside here.

Tyler Greene – Battling right now for the Cardinals’ 2nd base job with Daniel Descalso and Skip Schumaker.  Obviously, unless you’re in a deep NL-Only league, you stopped reading this blurb already.  Nothing gets people excited like the mention of Skip Schumaker!  Greene did well in Triple-A last year (14 homers, 19 steals in 66 games), but that’s probably because he was 27 years old, i.e., he was old to still be in the minors.  In 150 major league games, he’s hit .218 with 5 homers and 16 steals.  Best case scenario, we get a Baha Man year.  Most realistic scenario, there’s a three-way time share at 2nd.

Josh Hamilton – Jammed his heel.  For those that like things delivered in comic book form, Texas hero deals with wounded heel.  Rangers are saying this is the first of five dozen minor injuries Hamilton will endure this year, but he should be fine.

Aroldis Chapman – Pitched well yesterday in his bid to become a starter.  There’s only one catch, the Reds have five starters already.  They would need an injury to someone on their staff.  Popping his head in, Dusty says, “Did someone say we need a pitching injury?”  Okay, but if you’re drafting today, you’re drafting Chapman as a middle reliever.

Anibal Sanchez – Maybe you’ve heard me mention this brother with the name of a mother before.  Yeah, I love him and guess what?  He struck out 4 yesterday through two innings with no problems from his previously sore shoulder.  When I say boo, you say ya.  Boo…Ya…  (By the way, I think the Marlins might be watching a bit too much of The Voice.)

Juan Carlos Oviedo – Will report to camp this week.  No word yet when Leo Nunez is reporting.

Ryan Howard – Yesterday, Jimmy Rollins said he’d be surprised if Howard plays this year.  In related news, the team announced Rollins is out of the running for Director of Phillies Public Relations.

Brett Jackson – As expected, the Cubs announced that Jackson will start the year in the minors.  There’s no way Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus are all still starting in the outfield by July.  Worth noting in keeper and deep NL-Only leagues.  Earlier in the offseason, I went over my Brett Jackson fantasy.  I wrote it while watching Luck with the closed captioning on, so I could read what the hell Nick Nolte was saying.

Garrett Jones – Looks like he will be the starting 1st baseman for the Pirates vs. righties.  As I mentioned in the 1st basemen to target post, in deep, daily leagues, you can get some value there.  Or not.  For instance, “Hey, horse, here’s water.”  Horse, “Neigh.”

Jacob Turner – Going through a dead arm period.  The doctors weren’t sure what the problem was at first, then Haley Joel Osment said he saw Turner’s arm.

Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.