Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jered Weaver will not make his final start of the year because he doesn’t care about your H2H team.  Weaver ends the season with a line of 18-8/2.41/1.01/198.  If you throw out three bad starts, his ERA would’ve been 1.72 in 220 innings, but if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts no one would ever leave the bathroom.  Verlander’s gonna win the Cy Young, shizz is foregone.  Put it in an envelope and hand it to your mail carrier so he can steam it open and check it for cash.  Either way, let’s look at what Weaver did this year.  Mullet over, if you will.  Weaver was better last year.  Blunt is as blunt does right there.  His K-rate, xFIP and hair were all better.  His K-rate this year was right in line with past rates, if you exclude 2010.  For now, last year looks like the outlier for Ks.  Also, batters made contact with his pitches inside the strike zone at a higher rate than last year and hitters weren’t as fooled by pitches outside the strike zone.  In the end, he’s not going to be terrible in 2012; it’s just a repeat of 2011 seems unlikely, unless Superman circles the earth a few hundred times.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman – Sitting out the last two games with a sore hamstring.  What’s this, the last few days of senior year and he’s already going to his safety school?  Play the games!

Alex Gonzalez – Left the game after aggravating his calf.  That’s the last time he says he likes his hamstring better.

Jose Reyes – 3-for-6 as he hit two homers yesterday.  That hit the spot in one of my leagues.  It was like the Kool-Aid man crashing through your wall and yelling “Oh, yeah!” then spackling the hole over because no one wants a giant hole in their wall.

Chris Capuano – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Ended the season with a 4.55 ERA.  Crapuano was pretttay, pretttay mediocre.

Jeanmar Gomez – 4 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  Watching this game yesterday I felt like everyone screaming at Rocky to throw in the towel to save Apollo’s life.  Jesus effin’ Montero, they had to let Gomez give up eight earned with no lifeline?  Throw him a freakin’ bone and pull him from the G-d damn game!  Fantasy baseball:  When real life stress isn’t enough.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Done for the year.  Back date this to last Thursday when I thought he was done for the year.

Prince Fielder – 3-for-3, 5 RBIs and 3 homers.  Then the soon-to-be free agent, Prince, changed his name to a symbol — $.

Howie Kendrick – Left the game with a sprained wrist.  He’s day-to–Oh, yeah, today’s the last day.  Didn’t the season just start?  I’m sad.

Matt Joyce – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 19th homer.  Member when he was the meow’s cat early in the season?  Oh, those were the days.  It was warm out!  You had more hair!  Okay, now for another friendly reminder — grab everyone on the Braves, Cardinals, Rays and Red Sox.  If there’s a one game playoff, you want to be the one with these guys, not the schmohawk you’re trying to beat.

Matt Holliday – Pulled from the game because of his injured middle finger.  Some of his owners might have a healthy middle finger for him.

Allen Craig – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and a homer as he replaced Holliday.  Yeah, I’d even grab Craig for that potential one day playoff game.

Tyler Flowers – Hit two homers in the last two games.  It’s too late for this year, but please, White Sox, do the right thing and give him a chance to play.  I’m begging here.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-3 with 3 Ks, bringing his average to .159.  Elias Sports Bureau said there’s never been a player that hit less than half his weight until Adam Dunn.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was heard around the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Terry, in Human Resources, broke the previous record of seventeen with how many times someone’s blamed a fart on a ceiling fan.”

Justin Upton – After being hit in the head by a pitch on Sunday, he returned to the lineup yesterday and was hit in the face by a fly ball.  In the playoffs, Upton will wear a glove on his head.

Jarrod Parker – 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 1 K.  Okay, start the hype machine for next year.

Mike Morse – For his 30th homer on Monday, Livan bought him a bottle of Cristal.  Yesterday, Morse hit his 31st homer.  For that, Livan gave him a lap dance.

Mike Napoli – Two homers yesterday vs. his old club, and specifically his old manager who never played him.  That revenge had to feel sweet for Napoli.  Remember, never get involved in a land war in Asia and never go against Napoli when pride is on the line.  He takes 28 homers, and even more remarkably, a .317 average into the final game of the season.

Ian Kinsler – 3-for-5 with a slam & legs to finally get him to 30/30.  This quest for 30/30 reminded me of an actor doing a movie for a paycheck.  30/30 is Kinsler’s Little Fockers.

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and a home run.  That gives him 29 homers and 98 RBIs on the year.  This blew Rudy’s mind yesterday on IM.  “You see Willingham’s almost at 30/100?”  “Yeah, I saw.” “I have nothing else to say about that.”  “Neither do I.”

Ryan Lavarnway – With Salty and Varitek banged up, Lavarnway got the start and hit two homers yesterday.  Similarly to Tyler Flowers, I’d love to see Lavarnway get a starting job next year.  Do it for all of Ryan’s fans.  You know, the Lavarnwayians.  Who are not related to Damon, Marlon, Kim, Keenan, Elvira, Michael, Kyla, Bella, Shawn, Damien (have I mentioned Damien yet?), Daphne, Jolie, Bella, Nadia, Shawn Howell, Chaunté and Craig.

Marco Scutaro – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs, home run, hitting near .400 in September.  What-what?!  Actually the what-what was what I just mentioned.

Chris Parmelee – 2-for-4 with a homer and in the same game Tosoni hit a grand slam.  Parmelee and Tosoni?  Sounds like rejected cast members of The Jersey Shore.

Delmon Young – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 12th homer.  I feel like every year drafting Delmon is like falling for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.

Anthony Bass – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Sweet… if I didn’t start Jeanmar and Blake Beavan.

Javier Vazquez – 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He only pitched this well to end the season because I dropped him in all of my leagues three months ago.  Oh, and I blame Steve Bartman too.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-3 with his 40th steal.  I’m in the process of writing up top 20 recaps that will be on the site next week.  You wanna know one guy that really surprised me?  Steve Lombardozzi.  No, Random Italicized Voice, not Steve Lombardozzi.  Emilio Bonifacio.  Didn’t realize what a great year he ended up having.  I mean, I should.  I only wrote 1500 words a day about fantasy baseball for the last 6 months.  Imagine I wrote all of that in a spiral notebook.  You’d have me committed.  It’s all about the medium!

Jimmy Rollins – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs, 2 runs and a slam & legs.  Now has 16 homers and 30 steals.  You know, you could’ve done worse at shortstop.  Hanley comes to mind.  He would’ve been worse.  On a side note, I wonder if the Phils don’t want the Braves in the playoffs or they’re just doing the honorable thing by playing their regulars.  I’m guessing it’s the latter.

Joe Blanton – Will start the season finale for the Phillies, which will set up their rotation perfectly for Blanton to return to pitch Game 6 of the NLDS.

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

Ian Kennedy loves each and everyone.  That’s why he gave you 12 Ks yesterday over 8 innings while only allowing one hit.  You say, “No, he doesn’t.  He doesn’t even know me.  How could he love me?”  You remember when you couldn’t find a parking spot at Chick-fil-A last week and you were about to give up when a chicken sandwich fell into the flat bed of your El Camino?  That was dropped there by Ian Kennedy.  So you tell me he doesn’t love you.  You tell me he doesn’t love you when he has a sub-3 ERA over 216 innings.  Tell me that.  A 1.08 WHIP and 194 Ks, he gives you that too, unconditionally.  Tell me he judges you when you try to fashion a belt out of twine.  He doesn’t judge you.  He loves you.  Love him back.  I do.  As for 2012 fantasy baseball, I’m thinking Kennedy could be a tad overpriced.  Yeah, my love just went out the window.  His BABIP’s a bit low and his LOB% is a bit high.  She says she likes the ocean.  I’ll look at him more in-depth over the offseason, but he’s got FIPping problems I need evaluate.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wily Mo Pena – 1-for-1 with 3 walks.  He has a career .303 OBP.  That’s like an 80 to 1 shot he can avoid making an out in four at-bats.  There must be a kid in a Seattle hospital who really cares about OBP.  (BTW, his hometown was the winner of the “Best Town To Substitute Into The Lion King Song” contest.)

Mike Carp – 2-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer.  Now has two homers in the last three games.  The one nice thing about playing for a non-contender at this time of year is the collective you has nothing to play for so players can go out and be selfish to prove their worth.  Unlike those silly playoff teams saving their players for games that matter.

Alex Liddi – 2-for-4 with a homer and he became the first paisan born in Italy to play in the major leagues in 50 years.  That’s a one spicy prospect!

Dustin Ackley – Mariners scored 12 runs and Ackley didn’t play.  Holy sit!

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 23rd homer.  Has tailed off quite a but after the ASB (.233, 5 steals), but his power numbers have stayed fairly consistent.  Definitely peaked in May but 4 homers in August isn’t too shabby.

Chris Parmelee – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in three games as he bats .368 through 38 ABs.  In related roundup news, Alex Liddi likes to call him Chris Parm.

Ben Revere – 3-for-5 with 2 steals.  Now has 32 steals and is getting dangerously close to the point where he’s going to elicit questions next year.  “Hey, Grey, magnificent ‘stache.  Magnificent!  So what do you think of Ben Revere?  Obvious bargain, right?”  A guy with no power, around 30 steal speed is a dime a dozen in most mixed leagues.  Good waiver wire pickup is different than a good draft pick.

Ricky Romero – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Similarly to Kennedy, he has some FIPping issues too.  We’ll look at in the offseason.  We’ll debate, we’ll laugh, we’ll cry, we’ll scratch ourselves, we’ll scratch someone else thinking it’s ourselves.

Craig Kimbrel – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Bad week to quit closing out games.

Troy Tulowitzki – Getting closer to getting back on the field after taking batting practice and participating in other baseball activities.  Ya know, like spitting and grabbing himself.

Cory Luebke – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Even if this start was in Coors, it was another solid year for Hodgepadres, and next year I’m definitely drafting only Padres pitchers on one team.  I gotta try it before the apocalypse.

Octavio Dotel – Got the save yesterday.  Motte came in for the ninth, messed around and gave up a triple, double, but it was not a good day.  La Russa lifted him with the bases empty and now who knows who’s the closer.  My guess is it’s still Motte, but we shall see.  Or not.  Or probably.

Jarrod Parker – Was officially called up yesterday.  I already went over my Jarrod Parker fantasy.  I wrote it while waiting in line at the DMV to have them change my height from five-seven to five-eight.

Mariano Rivera – Everyone’s heard by now that he broke Trevor Hoffman’s save record.  Surprised there wasn’t more made of this, but another record was broken yesterday.  Kerry Wood was deemed “done for the season” before the end of the season for a record 11 of 13 seasons.

Matt Angle – 3-for-8 with 2 steals in the doubleheader.  Far from an exciting name, but if you’re desperate for steals, he should get them over the next week-plus.  That’s your Angle.

Jed Lowrie – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, 3 runs and a homer.  Hasn’t been playing because of a bum shoulder.  Try some soap and getting rid of the shopping cart filled with junk.  He’s back now and, if his bat is hot, the Sawx will play him.

Geovany Soto – 3-for-3, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.  I’ve been behind the scenes at Razzball HQ preparing the end of the season lists that will come in October and Soto wasn’t even in the top 20 catchers.  Though one big night may change that.  That was what they call a tease.

Mike Stanton – 2-for-3, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  After the game, he dedicated the 2nd home run to his biggest fan.  Me.  At least that’s how I cut the interview together with my iMovie.

Omar Infante – 2-for-5 and his 6th homer.  Nobody puts Infante in the corner.

Brad Hand – With the innings starting to creep up, the Marlins might shut him down.  Right now, the Marlins are talking to the Hand.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (7) | 2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [94 – 68] AL Central
AAA: [49 – 95] International League – Rochester
AA: [44 – 98] Eastern League – New Britian
A+: [64 – 74] Florida League – Fort Myers
A: [71 – 65] Midwest League – Beloit
Rk: [41 – 25] Appalachian League – Elizabethtown

The Run Down
As a Twins fan I try to be as objective as possible, typically leaning towards harsher judgments of their players and prospects. For example, Danny Valencia inspires as much excitement for me as receiving a sweater from my dear me-ma. Pleasantly to every non-Twins fan – who thought he’d be the second coming of Adrian Beltre – Valencia provided great value for a team that hasn’t had a solid third basemen since Corey Koskie in the early part of the past decade. This year, the pitching is thin behind Kyle Gibson but the Twins pulled off some major amateur signings of Miguel Sano and Max Kepler-Rozycki. Aaron Hicks is developing slowly and 2010′s first round draft pick has the potential to perform like the 2010 Kyle Gibson. With a 2011 farm ranking of 13, the Twins ranking slipped due to trading Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.

Graduated Prospects
#6 (3B) Danny Valencia; #17 (RHP) Alex Burnett; #20 (RHP) Jeff Manship; #27 (C) Jose Morales;

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – (LHP) David Bromberg; #7 (RHP) Carlos Gutierrez; #16 (LHP) Tyler Robertson; (RHP)
Kyle Waldrop
Hitters – #14 (1B/OF) Chris Parmelee; #13 (OF) Joe Benson; #5 (OF) Ben Revere

Players of Interest
All rankings are from Baseball America 2010 with information from Baseball America 2010 and 2011 along with John Sickels Prospect Handbook 2010 and 2011.

Hitters
#5 Ben Revere | CF | D.o.B: 5-3-88 | Stats (AA): .305/.331/.363 | 361 AB | 15 XBH | 1 Hr | .056 ISO | 41:32 K:BB | 36/13 SB/CS | .339 BABIP
All speed and no power make Revere the perfect horsemen to shout, “Juan Pierre is coming!” See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number five.

#13 Joe Benson | OF | D.o.B: 3-5-88 | Stats (A+/AA): ..259/.343/.538 | 459 AB | 65 XBH | 27 Hr | .279 ISO | 136:47 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .350 BABIP (A+); .300 BABIP
Aggressive hitter who is prone to strikeouts. Has five-tool abilities but is average across the board. Great raw power. Scouts say he has “center field range with a right fielder’s arm.” Speed trails only Ben Revere’s in the system. Could replace Michael Cuddyer as early as 2012. Still has work to refine his game. Could be a nice 30/20 with poor average player if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number four.

#14 Chris Parmelee | 1B/OF | D.o.B: 2-24-88 | Stats (A+/AA): .285/.356/.401 | 491 AB | 38 XBH | 8 Hr | .116 ISO | 81:56 K:BB | 3/3 SB/CS | .410 BABIP (A+); .313 BABIP (AA)
Parmelee has struggled to hit for power at the higher levels as stated by his slash line of .275/.341/.389 in 411 AB at Double-A over the past two years. He has plus-raw power but hasn’t be able to utilize this feat within his line drive swing. Defensively, he is adequate at best manning first. It feels like Parmelee has been touted forever because he has; this will be his sixth professional season and local sports writers have been watching him since day one. He needs to refine his hitting approach, increase defensive play and tap into his power to have any relevance going forward. Parmelee is a member of the 40-man roster. At just 23, he’s nearing the end of his prospect glory days. With Morneau’s concussions, he could be up sooner if things start going his way. Watch him start at Double-A to start the 2011 season. Current BA ranking is number 19.

#12 Rene Tosoni | RF | D.o.B: 7-2-86 | Stats (AA): .270/.369/.422 | 185 AB | 16 XBH | 4 Hr | .152 ISO | 52:25 K:BB 3/1 SB/CS | .351 BABIP
After a career year in 2009, Tosoni injured his right shoulder in spring. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled before being placed on DL in June. Even with an injury ridden season, he was added to the 40 man roster. Tosoni has 20/10 potential with a solid average. He could be another Hunter Pence or just another fourth outfielder. Current BA ranking is number 12.

Pitchers
#3 Kyle Gibson | RHP | D.o.B: 10-23-87 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 7.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 152 IP | 2.96 ERA | 2.92 FIP (A+); 3.08 FIP (AA); 3.20 FIP (AAA) | 1.15 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.1 H/9 | .274 BABIP (A+); .304 BABIP (AA); .245 BABIP (AAA)
He’s a top 35 ranked prospect in all of baseball. He has a 86 to 92 MPH fastball with good command. He has a two-seamer with good movement (sink and cut). He also throws a plus slider and a plus changeup. Has the ability to induce a lot of groundballs (2.77 GO/AO). His strikeouts decreased at each level. In 43 1/3 innings at High-A he had a 8.3 K/9, in 93 innings at Double-A he had a 7.5 K/9 and in 15 2/3 innings at Triple-A he had a 5.2 K/9. Ceiling is a number one starter. Floor is a number three starter. Should start at Triple-A and receive a midseason promotion to save arbitration time. See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number one.

#9 David Bromberg | RHP | D.o.B: 9-14-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): 6.7 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 151 1/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 3.62 FIP (AA); 4.68 FIP (AAA) | 1.32 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .315 BABIP (AA); .257 BABIP (AAA)
Had solid year but nothing spectacular. Sounds like they should give him a 4 year $16 million contract to him a la Nick Blackburn. He throws the same average fastball between 88 and 92 MPH with an average curve and a sufficient changeup. Could get some action as a spot starter or a righty killer from the bullpen. Current BA ranking is number 13.

Scott Diamond | LHP | D.o.B: 7-30-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 158 2/3 IP | 3.46 ERA | 3.15 FIP (AA); 3.34 FIP (AAA) | 1.39 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9.4 H/9 | .355 BABIP (AA); .291 BABIP (AAA)
A Rule-5 Draft pick, Diamond must stay on the major league squad or be returned to Atlanta. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with good sink (read: groundball pitcher) with a slider and changeup that are average at best. His ceiling is a number four or five starter. Nothing special but in deep leagues could provide solid value over other retreads. Current BA ranking is number 29.

Anthony Slama | RHP | D.o.B: 1-6-84 | Stats (AAA): 10.2 K/9 | 4.4 BB/9 | 65 1/3 IP | 2.20 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.12 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 5.6 H/9 | .235 BABIP
High strikeout reliever alert!  Slama has a deceptive delivery but average stuff. He throws an 88 to 92 MPH fastball and slurve and a changeup. His stats stated he should be given an opportunity to pitch from the bullpen. We’ll see if Gardenhire is willing to bypass his fickle ways. Current BA ranking is number 28.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#1 Aaron Hicks | CF | D.o.B: 10-2-89 | Stats (A): .279/.401/.428 | 423 AB | 41 XBH | 8 Hr | .149 ISO | 112:88 K:BB | 21/11 SB/CS | .359 BABIP
I don’t see him being as exciting as local writer or prospects mavens. Maybe that is because I am skewed by fantasy baseball. Power upside is 20 to 25 home runs, but he doesn’t appear to be hitting that ceiling. His 2010 season was quite a success even if he stayed at Single Low-A for the second year in a row. He has a patient hitting approach, good raw power, above-average speed and good defense. BA projects him to be another Denard Span with better defense. Any Twins fan should be excited about that, just not excited for the next Mike Cameron or any other 25/20 player you can think of. I expect him to be more of another 20/15 type player. Current BA ranking is number two.

#4 Miguel Sano | SS/3B | D.o.B: 5-11-93 | Stats (Rk): .291/.338/.466 | 148 AB | 18 XBH | 4 Hr | .175 ISO | 43:10 K:BB | 2/2 SB/CS | .422 BABIP
Eventually Sano will receive a Scouting the Unknown article. However, he still hasn’t played above Rookie ball. He has tremendous raw power – best in the system, think 30 home runs per year – with good bat speed, strong leverage and knack for recognizing pitches. Projects to play third long term. Current BA ranking is number three.

#10 Max Kepler-Rozycki| OF | D.o.B: 2-10-93 | Stats (Rk): .286/.346/.343 | 140 AB | 7 XBH| 0 Hr | .057 ISO | 6/1 SB/CS | 27:13 K:BB | .354 BABIP
The German son of ballet dancers, Mr. Kepler-Rozycki is still very raw. Projecting him isn’t something Baseball America even tries to do. Instead, they just stated to be aware that he could be moderate power hitter with good defense and speed. Needs more at-bats in the minors before anyone can truly say anything relevant. Current BA ranking is number 11.

Pitchers
Alex Wimmers | RHP | D.o.B: 11-1-88 | Stats (A+): 13.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 15 2/3 IP | .57 ERA | 1.22 FIP | .70 WHIP | .0 Hr/9 | 3.4 H/9 | .200 BABIP
Drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, Wimmers projects to be a perfect middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. He throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good command and control. He also throws a changeup (his best pitch) and a curveball. Should return to High-A and be promoted mid-season to Double-A if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number 7.

Liam Hendriks | RHP | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A/A+): 8.7 K/9 | 1.1 BB/9 | 108 2/3 IP | 1.74 ERA | 1.35 FIP (A); 2.14 FIP (A+) | .84 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .203 BABIP (A); .284 BABIP (A+)
Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oye! Oye! Oye! This Aussie skyrocketed up the Twins farm rankings. Hendriks 2010 season was one of the few bright spots – sure wasn’t their upper minors win-loss record. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with sinking action and finished the season sitting between 90 and 93 MPH. He also have a good changeup and a curveball that is slight above-average. With great command, a strong work ethic and these numbers, Hendriks will force himself into the major he can do this again. Expect to see him return to High-A to start the year. Current BA ranking is number six.

Minnesota Twins 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009):
2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

Pitchers
#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.