Fantasy Baseball Advice

So it comes to this, the final countdown.  Cue Lou Gramm and let that blaze through your head as you listen to that classic from Foreigner.  If you read this in tune with that song, it’s almost like the Dark Side of the Moon/Wizard of Oz experience.  You have to read fast though.   I can’t believe the season is basically over as it seemed to fly by and I guess I missed all the fun.  This week is extended by 3 additional days so basically every pitcher you can think of goes twice during championship week. So there are tons of options and I just pulled my top 15 favorites based on pitching match-up favorability and my general guess work.  So as you read this, pitchers are in order of how they will appear in their first start of the week. Starting with 9/19. Check back mid-week as we will add a contribution for the last couple of games.  Good luck until Thursday.  Questions, comments or rants are greatly accepted.  (Pitchers and matchups will almost certainly occur this week due to teams clinching and whatnot.)

Kevin Millwood (SD vs. Luebke, @Hou vs. Norris) Was the starting pitching version of a pogo stick this year.  Found decent starts finally with his 4th team.  Last 5 starts ERA under 3.20.  Team scores runs, prolly better to score chicks, just my humble opine.

Mike Minor (@Fla vs. Nolasco, @Was vs. Wang) I was trying to get him to jump out of the birthday cake for Grey.  Unfortunately, he has a scheduling conflict.  Jim J. Bullock it is.   Sorry, homey.  Previous 3 starts 3.24 ERA, with some decent strikeout potential.

Jeremy Guthrie (@Bos vs. Lackey, @Det vs. Verlander) Last 5 starts, 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 30 K’s.  If his peak value wasn’t before the season started, it may be now when you need him the most. Maybe he was all on board the “Suck for Luck” campaign and forgot that he only plays football.

Jason Vargas (Min vs. Hendriks, Oak vs. McCarthy) Needs the Fister treatment.  No, not that kind of stuff.  Sicko.  A change of scenery makes his numbers look prettier.   Gets beat up once and awhile, but are we scared of the Twins and A’s offensive juggernauts?

Randy Wells (Mil vs. Marcum, @SD vs. Latos) Last 10 starts 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA only downfall is just 38 K’s.  Has pitched a lot better than a lot of sexier names that you prolly already roster over the last 30 days.  Just the facts.  And then Thursday happened and made what I just said irrelevant.

Bud Norris (@Cin vs. Bailey, Col vs. Millwood) I know Morrow gets more love but is 2 more K/9 more important than an uptick of 1.6 in ERA?  Not so much that it would lead to an almost double ownership.  I guess if I played for a loser I would go unnoticed too.

Chris Narveson (@CHC vs. Garza, Pit vs. Ohlendorf)  Starting, bullpen, back to starting.  Brewers will prolly have clinched by his first start.  When you dig deep, is it really horrible to have a pitcher from a winning team as your option?

Dana Eveland (SF vs. Vogelsong, @Ari vs. Hudson)  I could be wrong, but didn’t he star as MacGyver’s bald sidekick?  Getting by on looks, charm and a spoonful of who the heck is this guy? Tiny numbers in first 2 starts, you can roll the dice when I’m done playing click-clack.

Drew Pomeranz (@Hou vs. Myers,  @SF vs. Bumgarner) Features a plus fastball and curve, changeup needs work.  Reminds me a lot of Joe Saunders.  2 decent matchups as he fights for a rotation spot and fantasy formidability next year.

Henderson Alvarez (Ana vs. Santana, @CHW vs. Buehrle) A 3 ERA and a small WHIP from a groundball pitcher is almost as good as Reading Rainbow being back on the air.  Oh, it is.  Righteous.  It’s in a book, so take a look. Sorry got caught up in LeVar Burton’s goodness.

Philip Humber (Cle vs. Gomez, Tor vs. McGowan) Last 2 starts since coming off DL have been better than I expected.  That much needed time off looks like it refueled him for the faux baseball playoffs.

Jake Westbrook (NYM vs. Capuano, @Hou vs. Sosa)  Consistently is a 6 inning 3 ER pitcher, to hope for anything better would be like leaving Santa vegetables instead of cookies and then wonder why all your presents are broken.

Eric Surkamp (@Ari vs. Collmenter, Col vs. White) Man, that Barry Zito contract looks awesome right now.  Low K potential and lack of team run support hurts him some.  Any time I don’t have support I get all saggy, that ad brought to you by Spanx.

Felipe Paulino (@CHW vs. Stewart,  @Min vs. Diamond) We come for the Ks, that is all.  Now dance, monkey, as I turn this organ grinder.  In retrospect, it would be awesome if that monkey could do The Dougie.

Brett Myers (Col vs. Pomeranz, STL vs. Carpenter) Really useful right now, until he starts dating your sister and you’re like, “Wait a second,  I don’t want you dating my sister.”  1 ER in each of his last 4 appearances.  Would have liked to see him dealt to a contender, but there’s always next year.

My dinner with Andre is over as Andre Ethier has called it kaput on his season.  It wasn’t from a lack of trying, I’ll tell ya that.  “Hey, I just want to say how much it means to me to try to help this team win even though I shouldn’t be playing.  This is my job, and I take my job very seriously, even if means I may never walk again because I’m playing when I shouldn’t be.  I will not sit, no matter what!  Unless someone asks me to sit because they realize I shouldn’t be playing.”  Andre encapsulates today’s athlete perfectly.  Team first, as long the player is okay putting team first.  For whatever reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ethier overdrafted again next year.  People just can’t get enough of his 20 homer, no steal fantasy value.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 4-for-5 with his 17th steal.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Seems like a no-brainer, which is my specialty.

Juan Rivera – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs.  He now has 32 RBIs in 45 games with the Dodgers.  Note to self:  Use Juan Rivera at a later date to show how arbitrary RBIs are.

Chad Billingsley – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If he was a dangling Chad on your team, punch him out.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-5 with his 12th homer.  After the game, he had vodka with coffee liqueur while arguing with Mark Reynolds about who was the best cosmonaut.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4.  This comes after an 0-for-10 stretch with 7 Ks.  He reminds me a bit of me at this bar the other night.  There was a point when I actually said the line, “What’s your man got to do with me?”  They don’t call me the Fantasy Master Lothario — or FML — for nothing.

Eric Chavez – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs.  When Chavez goes up to bat, the song that plays is “I Suck, Sucker,” which I wrote and sang for him.

Craig Schwinden – 5 IP, 5 ER.  In the first row at Metco was Kim Basinger, she’s a total Babraham Lincoln… Schwinden!

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with a grand slam in the first game of the doubleheader; 1-for-2 with a steal in the 2nd.  He now has three homers in the last week.  This will help the Mets, who are preparing a video of his week’s exploits with Joe Esposito’s You’re the Best playing in the background, which they will ship around to perspective trade partners in the offseason.

Mike Minor – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks and the conshellation prize.  Damn, really could used a 6 IP, 0 ER start from him, and, as always, this is all about me.

Julio Teheran – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s gonna be good, but this was no indication of that.  The Mets and Braves both looked like they just got done playing a previous game, which they did.

Brent Morel – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  You fancy mushroom!

Brent Lillibridge – Sticking with the Brent theme, Lillibridge was hit by a pitch that broke his hand.  He should’ve aqueduct’d.

Ian Kennedy – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, improving his record to 19-4.  Joe Kennedy would’ve been proud, then bought him an election.

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  He’s still struggling to maintain a decent average with all the Ks, but he has two homers in the last week.

Rickie Weeks – The Brewers activated Weeks from the 15-day DL that he was on for over a month.  15-day DL, “You exploit my generosity!”

Andrew Miller – 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I wonder who’s gonna be bumped from the Sawx rotation for the playoffs.  I mean, I have an idea.  Be weird if it’s Miller after Francona earlier in the year said, “Obviously, [Miller] is a huge part of our organization, and it’s going to stay that way.  He’s not going anywhere.”  Maybe he’ll say he was putting air quotes around his statement.

Colby Rasmus – Took live batting practice and should be good to go by early next week.  I’ve marked my I Couldn’t Care Less calendar.  We now wait.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4 with a homer.  I got a letter recently from one of our incarcerated readers, it went like this, “I don’t think you’ve given enough attention to Encarnacion.  He’s hitting the cover off the ball just as well as anyone else in the major leagues or the penal circuit.  By the way, you puta?  Yours, Boo-Boo.”

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 22nd homer yesterday.  A catcher with power and a low average?  Oh, he’s definitely gonna be on multiple teams of mine next year.  That’s right, I’m thinking about my 2012 draft already.  Sleep on me, that pillow is where your head’ll lie.  Permanently, snitch, it’s beddy-bye, Eminem.

Ricky Romero – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Could I make R.R. Cool Jay (see resemblance to the rapper (actor?)) a starter on some of my mixed teams in 2012?  I’m contemplating it.  AL East be damned!

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was good in this game, until he wasn’t.  Snap in the inverted W formation!

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Season ERA is 2.60 and WHIP is 0.95.  Phillies are gonna be tough to beat in the playoffs.  Cust kayin’.

Chase Utley – Will sit out this weekend with what is being deemed a mild concussion.  I got one thing to relay about mild concussions… Justin Morneau called and said, “How come I’m wearing my mittens on my feet?”

This isn’t meant to replace Smokey’s two-start pitchers for fantasy that comes every weekend. This is meant to supplement that, like something A-Rod’s cousin would give you. This isn’t two start pitchers, this is barely owned guys that could give you one start. A pick up and a drop. They’re all owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons-of-bees goes out the window this time of year. If you’re battling for pitching points or in the H2H playoffs, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April. Suddenly, Jeff Francis looks ownable and John Lannan doesn’t look like John Lannan, but looks like a guy whose home ERA is under 3. So I’ve assembled starters from Friday, the new Hump Day, until next Wednesday, the old Hump Day, that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Lannan). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

B.J. Upton went o-for-3 or one-for-four if you count him hitting the outfield wall.  You say unfeeling, I say how dare he start in front of Desmond Jennings.  I sat down to watch this game wearing my dress made of doilies with Desmond Jennings’s face on each doilie, i.e., my Desmond tutu, only to find him benched.  How dare you, sir.  In fact, I’m bringing out the douchey one word per sentence thing.  How. Dare. You. Sir.  Upton’s day-to-day with a shoulder strain.  He’ll probably miss a few days, unless he thinks he’s going to play instead of Jennings.  Then I might have to Gillooly someone.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jeff Niemann – 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He was so close to putting together another solid game.  Too bad I don’t have him on my fantasy horseshoe team.

Evan Longoria – 2-for-4 with his 21st homer.  I don’t own him anywhere so my motives are a bit tainted, but I hope he finishes up the year with a sub-.240 average.  If he somehow falls into the 3rd round next year, color me excited.

Jimmy Rollins – To the DL with a Grade 2 strain of the groin.  That’s crazy advanced.  I never strained my groin until, like, the 8th grade.

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Mets.  It was so easy that he walked 3 batters just to see what it feels like.

John Mayberry – Another day, another HR.  That’s 11 HRs in 189 ABs this  year.  Raul Ibanez has 5 more HRs in 240 more ABs.  Cust kayin’, Charlie.

Hunter Pence – 2 for 3, 4 runs, 2 RBIs as he clearly is taking to the city of Tastykakes and Cheese Steaks.  It’s got to make Ruben Amaro feel better that his fleecing of Ed Wade isn’t limited to just pitchers (Oswalt, Lidge).

Jose Constanza – Left yesterday’s game with an ankle sprain.  Fredi is probably finding out if Constanza can play on crutches instead of playing Heyward.  Hey, Constanza, the ocean called, it’s running out of non-phenoms.

Tommy Hanson – Said his shoulder feels fine.  You know what I don’t like?  When a pitcher feels the need to say his shoulder feels fine.  Can all pitchers agree to go mum on the whole shoulder business?  Mum is the word, is the word, is the word…

Jonny Venters – Got the save yesterday because Kimbrel had been used a lot recently and Venters had been used a lot recently but Venters’s life coach is Scott Proctor.

Nate Eovaldi – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Reminds me a bit of John Ely when he first was called up.  Hey, whatever happened to John Ely?

James Loney – 7 for his last 8.  Yawn.  Wake me when he gets his homers into the double digits.

Travis Hafner – To the DL with a strained right foot.  He stepped on his old football helmet that was being used as a beer cooler during a recent BBQ.

Ross Detwiler – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Has put together four straight decent starts.  Yes, ‘decent’ is less than a quality start.  I wouldn’t grab him in any league.  Yes, I’m only talking about him because yesterday was a short schedule day.

Adrian Beltre – Ran at 75% yesterday.  I walk at 35% with a cane and a limp while wearing a chinchilla fur coat.

Justin Morneau – Out with a sore foot, but the good news is, depending on whether you own him or not, his x-rays were negative.  The bad news, again dependent on ownership, he’s going for an MRI on Tuesday if his foot isn’t feeling better.  Now try and figure out what you’re hoping for.

Chris Narveson – After throwing 5 1/3 shutout innings, he left his start with a cracked fingernail.  That once knocked my mom out of action for an entire afternoon.  Couldn’t make me lunch or anything.  Godspeed, Narveson.  Maybe you can get an endorsement with Lee Press-On.

Zack Greinke – 6 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Greinkes!  Just when you think it’s safe to start him everywhere every time out, he gets dunderblown by the Pirates.

Alex Avila – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer in the last four games.  He’s also hitting .429 in August.  I wouldn’t defrost Ted Williams’s head just yet, but he is having a solid year.

Mike Napoli – 1-for-4 with his 21st homer.  He’s also batting .293 on the year.  Aren’t you glad you got him off your team back in April?  What a relief!

Ben Revere – 1-for-5 but probably made the best play of the year.  Too bad my fantasy league doesn’t have a Web Gems category.

J.D. Martinez – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs and 5 for his last nine with a homer.  Must… resist… urge… to… pick… up… Astros… hitters.

Brian Bogusevic – Hit his 4th homer yesterday.  Before you think about picking him up, remember he’s a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Ludwick – 1-for-4 with a homer.  The Pirates trade deadline deal is paying immediate dividends!

Jose Tabata – 5-for-9 in the doubleheader, has now hit in every game since his return with two homers.  He’s at 31% owned in ESPN leagues.  Even assuming 50% of ESPN leagues are abandoned, that figure seems low.

Andrew McCutchen – Sat out the nightcap and Daniel McCutchen got the win.  Wait a second, I saw that episode of Family Ties when Alex had two dates to the prom.  Did Daniel McCutchen enter the game wearing a different color tie?

Starlin Castro – Received a mental day off yesterday.  The Cubs gave Carlos Zambrano 4 mental days off out of 5 and look how well that turned out.

The week before the MLB trade deadline is upon us. This is why we keep a few extra FAAB bucks available. Wish they were good for a happy meal, because those toys always come in handy. With about 6 weeks to the fake playoffs, there is still time to make that last move to steal a few points in categories that your team may be lacking. So stocking up on some starts if you’re behind in innings isn’t always a bad idea.  Enjoy the week to come and good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:
7/27
Cory Luebke vs. Ari – Kennedy
Bruce Chen @ Bos – Lackey
Ervin Santana @ Cle – Carrasco

7/28
Chris Capuano @ Cin – Bailey
John Lannan vs. Fla – Volstad
Kevin Correia @ Atl – Lowe

7/29
Josh Collmenter @ LAD – Lilly
Gillon Gee @ Was – Gorzellany
Tim Stauffer vs. Col – Hammel

Freddy Garcia (Sea vs. Vargas, Bal vs. TBD) What year is it? 2001? I don’t get it, no one predicted it. This is why overpaying for pitchers is what drives us all crazy. Yankee lineup makes him sexier.

Brandon McCarthy (TB vs. Price, Min vs. Pavano) Still building innings since return. Home ERA is tiny — 2.33. Good buy low guy, as he was prolly forgotten about for awhile.

Chris Narveson (CHC vs. Dempster, Hou vs. Myers) A Smokey fave, guess all my trashing is starting to get to him. 5-2 with a 3.80 ERA at home this year. Second half stunner last year, maybe it’s the start of something magical. Yeah, I said magical.

Rubby de la Rosa (Col vs. Nicasio, Ari vs. Saunders) K’s are nice, but anyone actually seen the Dodgers offense lately. Yeah, they score as much as the US women’s soccer team do on penalty kicks. What, too soon?

Andrew Miller (KC vs. Duffy, @Chw vs. Humber) Match-up with Duffy, first one to 6 BBs wins. Still like the chances of that lineup thwarting anything, peripherals be damned. We want wins. WINS, I say.

Dustin Moseley (Ari vs. Saunders, Col vs. Nicasio) Insert random Padre home start colloquialism. Still gets garbage run support. May not have a bullpen by Sunday to back him up.

Nick Blackburn (@Tex vs. Holland, @Oak vs. Moscoso) Lack of K’s makes him very unattractive. Only allowed one ER in last 2 starts. Name still sounds like a rash you contract on spring break.

R.A. Dickey (@Cin vs. Leake, @Was vs. Marquis) I thought first name initialed guys only wrote books. Only 1 win in last 8 starts, with a 3.38 ERA. Better pitcher on the road by a whole run.

Joe Saunders (@SD vs. Moseley, @LAD vs. De La Rosa) If effectively mediocre was a tier for starting pitchers, he would be the Sy Sperling of it. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in last 7 starts. ERA just a tick above 3 on the road.

Mike Leake (NYM vs. Dickey, SF vs. Bumgarner) The much anticipated Leake-Dickey matchup. Who will win? Depends.