There would’ve been a few more guys to discuss here, had the Nationals not gutted their system in acquiring Gio Gonzalez. Their top two pitching prospects (Brad Peacock & A.J. Cole) were shipped out along with top catching prospect, Kerek Norris, and big-league-ready LHP, Tom Milone. Prior to the trade, Baseball America had this Nationals system ranked #1 overall. GM Mike Rizzo drafted some high-ceiling types in Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke, and the organization still possesses baseball’s top prospect. Regarding that top prospect: he’s got the tools and makeup to be a perennial All Star, but his mustache could use some work. It’s flat and whispy, but not pathetic enough to be making a comedic statement a la Derek Holland. Harper needs to add significant volume to his 6th tool in order to complete the package. Perhaps Grey could lend some advice?
Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pat Lehman (RHP); Rafael Martin (RHP); Sammy Solis (LHP); Derek Norris (C); Bryce Harper (OF)
Graduated Prospects
Danny Espinosa (SS); Wilson Ramos (C); Yunesky Maya (RHP); Ryan Mattheus (RHP)
Grey previews Harper here. And while I tend to agree with the guarded outlook, the Nationals have been adamant about not counting their prized prospect out of a Major League role when camp breaks. Grey noted that this could simply be a ploy to stir fan interest, which seems plausible. Lately, though, I’m wondering if the Nats are sincere about promoting Harper sooner rather than later. This, of course, is a situation worth watching closely as it develops this spring. My best guess: Harper will be called up in June.
Marrero collected 100+ AB’s as the Nationals’ primary first baseman this past September. Unfortunately, the 23-year-old did not impress. His 2011 Triple-A figures (.300/.375/.449), however, are his best to date. Blocked by Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche, Marrero should return to AAA, but he’s right on the cusp of breaking through as another rather boring NL first baseman.
Lombardozzi is one of those scraptastic guys who you probably don’t want anywhere near your fantasy roster. Not very toolsy, but oozing with baseball acumen. You know the type. He’ll likely make the Nats as a utility infielder, but shouldn’t see regular time unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond goes down to injury.
The sixth overall selection in the 2011 draft, Rendon signed late and is yet to make his pro debut. He brings a polished approach to hitting and is discussed in the same light as Evan Longoria and David Wright. Washington will be careful with him at first; a strained throwing shoulder hampered him in his final season at Rice. Rendon has a Major League contract so he’ll be in camp with the big club this spring, but I expect him to make his pro debut in Potomac. The Nats may have to consider shifting him to second base while Zimmerman holds down third.
Purke signed too late to gain any professional experience last year, but he has the potential to climb quickly through the Washington farm system. The lefty went 16-0 with Texas Christian in 2010, but didn’t pitch in 2011 due to a shoulder ailment. The condition didn’t require surgery, and the Nationals feel they got a steal in drafting Purke in the third round last June. Until he proves his health on the mound, it’s fair to be skeptical, but Purke is armed with a filthy fastball-slider combo, and projects as a frontline starter.
Kimball was off to a nice start to his Major League career before his season was cut short to injury. In 12 appearances with the Nats, the righty posted a 1.93 ERA. This was after Kimball put up a 0.00 ERA in 12 appearances as the closer in Syracuse. Rotator-cuff surgery is cause for concern, but the Nationals hope to have Kimball back in their bullpen for the second half.
Solis projects as a mid-rotation, innings eating type. His repertoire features a mid-90′s fastball with movement, a decent curve, and a work-in-progress changeup. Solis posted a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts at High-A to round out his 2011. He’ll ride that momentum into Harrisburg for 2012 and could progress quickly from there, given his solid mechanics and fundamental approach.
The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.
26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.
27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.
29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.
30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.
31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”
32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.
33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.
35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.
42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.
43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.
46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.
Extra 51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Late Scratch Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Honorable Mentions In no particular order Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)
Washington Nationals 2010Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (21) | 2009 (21) | 2008 (9) | 2007 (30) | 2006 (24) | 2005 (26) | 2004 (30)
Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [69 – 93] NL East
AAA: [76 – 67] International League – Syracuse
AA: [77 – 65] Eastern League – Harrisburg
A+: [70 – 69] Carolina League – Potomac
A: [65 – 75] South Atlantic League – Haggerstown
A(ss): [36 – 38] New York Pennsylvania League – Vermont Lake
R: [24 – 32] Gulf League
The Run Down
In the 2009 Nationals Minor League Review, I said, “It wouldn’t be a stretch to see the team win 10 more games this year with a slightly improved rotation.” They did win exactly 10 more games this year, too bad that was still good enough for last place in the NL East. Jordan Zimmermann’s return from Tommy John surgery was met with losing Stephen Strasburg to the same surgery. The Nationals have an excessive amount of mediocre pitching in the minors and in the majors as they had no starter who threw 100 innings with a strikeout rate over 6 Ks per nine-innings (e.g. Stephen Strasburg had 92 strikeouts in 68 innings). On the positive side, they drafted Bryce Harper. Now everyone gets to listen and watch ESPN’s countdown of the young man’s call up. I like the trade Nationals made with the Twins (e.g. Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos). A young catcher with some hitting potential to keep the seat warm for Derek Norris; Harper won’t catch in the long run. Another rookie to watch in 2011, Danny Espinosa (see Grey’s Espinosa Fantasy Outlook for more details). Even with the return of Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals need a lot of help in the starting rotation. Their bullpen isn’t immune to this either. What doesn’t help is that their minor league affiliates are lacking any Grade-A pitching prospects. There are a few hitters on the way though. The Nats still have a lot of ground to make up in the NL East, however, they should start to make noise in the near future with Strasburg, Harper, Marrero, Norris, Burgess, Espinosa, and potentially Hood growing and maturing.
Graduate Prospects
#1 (RHP) Stephen Strasburg; #3 (RHP) Drew Storen; #8 (CF) Justin Maxwell; #20 (RHP) Luis Atilano; #4 (SS) Ian Desmond; #22 (CF) Roger Bernadina;
Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers: (RHP) Adam Carr; (RHP) Cole Kimball; (LHP) Sammy Solis
Hitters: #2 (C) Derek Norris; #28 (2B) Steve Lombardozzi; #9 (RF) Mike Burgess
Players of Interest Hitters #6 Chris Marrero | 1B | D.o.B: 7-2-88 | Stats (AA): .294/.350/.450 | 524 AB | 46 XBH | 18 Hr | .156 ISO | 1/3 SB/CS | 102:43 K:BB | .333 BABIP
From 2009 Nationals Minor League Review, “Back in early September [2009], I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article on Marrero. Here is me quoting me, ‘Marrero is projected to hit 20 to 25 homers with … decent average … above average plate coverage … average plate discipline … below average runner … below-average defensive range at first base … good arm … soft hands … [good] work ethic … He has the potential to be the Nationals starting first baseman by 2011.” His upside is a “middle-of-the-order power bat.” I like what I see. Should start the 2011 season at Triple-A and receive a mid-summer call-up if the Nationals find a first baseman in free agency. If not, Marrero may start on opening day.
#9 Michael Burgess | RF | D.o.B: 10-20-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): .265/.357/.465 | 460 AB | 50 XBH | 18 Hr | .200 ISO | 5/2 SB/CS | 116:57 K:BB | BABIP (AA: .307 ; AAA: .366)
Burgess possesses plus-plus raw power but has a long swing and can’t hit breaking pitches or changeups. Obviously, coaches are working on his batting mechanics. Historically, he has struggled against lefties (.227/.318/.307 in 2009). Scouts and coaches rave about his motivation to improve and strong work ethic. His defense is steadily improving but isn’t an asset beyond his plus arm that is accurate (had 26 assists in 2008). Don’t expect many steals as he’s a below-average runner. Sounds like Michael Cuddyer without the nagging injuries. I would expect 25 home runs with a .275 average, at best, in the majors if given a full season – even during his prime.
Pitchers Tommy Milone | LHP | D.o.B: 2-16-87 | Stats (AA): 8.3 K/9 | 1.3 BB/9 | 158 IP | 2.85 ERA | 2.57 FIP | 1.17 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 9.2 H/9 | .343 BABIP
Milone has a mid-to-high 80s MPH fastball with an excellent changeup and an average breaking ball. To quote John Sickels, “Double-A will be the true test from him; if he survives there, he has a chance to contribute as a long-reliever and emergency starter.” Looking at Milone’s stats, he survived and thrived at Double-A in spite of the .343 BABIP. Might make the back end of a poor Nationals rotation.
#16 Brad Peacock | RHP | D.o.B: 2-2-88 | Stats (A+/AA): 9.4 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 142 IP | 4.50 ERA | FIP (A+: 3.14; AA: 5.04) | 1.33 WHIP | 1.0 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | BABIP (A+: .361; AA: .262)
His fastball peaks at 94 MPH and “flashes an above-average knuckle-curve” along with a “strong changeup.” The knuckle-curve has potential but he struggles with its control, often. Peacock pitched well at High-A but Double-A threw him for a loop. If he cannot learn to harness his knuckle-curve, he’s destined for the bullpen. Look for him to return to Double-A to start the 2011 season.
Josh Wilkie | RHP | D.o.B: 7-24-84 | Stats (AAA): 8.0 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 69 2/3 IP | 2.45 ERA | 2.83 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .290 BABIP
Has good command, keeps the ball on the ground (GO/AO 1.77 in 2009) but doesn’t have overpowering “stuff;” he throws a 86 to 89 MPH fastball. He’s a reliever that doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors. Look for him to battle for middle relief spot in Spring Training.
Cole Kimball | RHP | D.o.B: 8-1-85 | Stats (A+/AA): 11.6 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 78 2/3 IP | 2.17 ERA | FIP (A+: 2.23; AA: 3.42) | 1.13 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 5.7 H/9 | BAIBP (A+: .285; AA: .270)
See 1/8th inch above, specifically the last line. Kimball is one step in the ladder behind, but his career mimics Wilkie’s.
Honorable Mentions Hitters #2 Derek Norris | C | D.o.B: 2-14-89 | Stats (A+): .235/.419/.419 | 298 AB | 31 XBH | 12 Hr | .184 ISO | 6/3 SB/CS | 94:83 K:BB | .296 BABIP
According to Baseball America, Norris has a “strong, compact swing … mature hitting approach … excellent pitch recognition … above-average pull power and good power to opposite field … [a] solid arm … quick release … average [at best] defense.” Defensively, he has had a lot of passed balls, 28 in 2009, 16 in 2008, but in 2010 he allowed only six passed balls – helps that he caught in only 69 of the 94 games he played in. The Carolina League has never been a hitters’ paradise, but Norris’ slash line (.235/.419/.419) isn’t looking pretty due to the low average, however, his strikeout-to-walk ratio ( 94:83 K:BB) is superb if you ignore the 298 at-bats (31.5 K%). He’s like Adam Dunn without the same power. The average shouldn’t be too worrisome yet, not when 31 of his 70 hits are extra-base hits; Norris’ advanced approach should lead to a better average over a longer period of time too (career average entering the 2010 was .271 in 787 at-bats). I like his long-term potential, but his fantasy value is limited in the 2011 season. His ETA will be the 2012 season, but could be like Carlos Santana by getting called-up if the team is struggling.
Tyler Moore | 1B | D.o.B: 1-30-87 | Stats (A+): .269/.321/.552 | 502 AB | 77 XBH | 31 Hr | .283 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 125:40 K:BB | .298 BABIP
Just on the outside of the top power hitters in the minors during the 2010 season. To think that two more home runs would have put him in the same breath as Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Moustakas, granted, only as a qualifier of who they beat. Moore looks to have good power potential, but not a strong grasp of controlling the strike zone. I’m extremely intrigued to see if Baseball America and John Sickels give Moore any reference in their 2011 books as their 2010 counterparts neglected his name. Double-A will be a true test, but at least Moore can say that his 2010 season wasn’t enhanced due to luck (.298 BABIP), but repeating the same production will be the challenge in 2011.
#10 Destin Hood | LF | D.o.B: 4-3-90 | Stats (A):.285/.333/.388 | 492 AB | 38 XBH | 5 Hr | .103 ISO | 5/7 SB/CS | 119:33 K:BB | .361 BABIP
An extremely raw baseball player, Hood’s primary sport was football, as exemplified by Hood being offered a football scholarship to attend Alabama. However, a $1.1 million bonus sways quite a few young players. Hood is “physical and athletic … [with] quick hands … [and] above-average power.” His offensive approach is gradually become more patient but lacks strong strike zone and pitch recognition skills. As he matured, he has been using all parts of the field. Defensively, he will be limited to left field as his defensive upside is fringe-average at best. Hood will need to ride his bat to the majors if he makes it at all. Watch his progress at High-A during the 2011 season. Either way, he’s a year to two away.
#29 J.P. Ramirez | LF | D.o.B: 9-29-89 | Stats (A): .296/.341/.470 | 506 AB | 52 XBH | 16 Hr | .174 ISO | 3/6 SB/CS | 83:25 K:BB | .324 BABIP
A “pure hitter with huge amounts of power,” according to Sickels. Baseball America states, “… smooth, compact left-handed swing and textbook hitting mechanics, but hitting is his lone potential plus tool and his offensive approach needs plenty of work … aggressive hitter … chases high fastballs and balls in the dirt … [has a] flat, line-drive swing … bat speed [may] eventually lead to average power potential … below-average speed and arm strength … defensive skills will forced him to play left field.” Well, J.P. hit well enough to advance to High-A in 2011. Like with all low-level minor league seasons, when he reaches Double-A his first true test will occur. The scouting report reminded me of David Ortiz. Just remember that the Twins gave up on Ortiz, and it wasn’t until the Red Sox took a chance on him that he developed.
Pitchers #12 Aaron Thompson | LHP | D.o.B: 2-28-87 | Stats (AA): 6.3 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 136 2/3 IP | 5.80 ERA | 4.60 FIP | 1.59 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 10.8 H/9 | .336 BABIP
Thompson relies on a cutter, a low 90s fastball, a solid changeup and an inconsistent breaking ball. He has a career 6.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 and only projects as a number four or five starter.
Washington Nationals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (21) | 2008 (9) | 2007 (30) | 2006 (24) | 2005 (26) | 2004 (30)
Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [59 – 103] NL East – worst record in majors
AAA: [76 – 68] International League
AA: [70 – 72] Eastern League
A+: [79 – 58] Carolina League
A: [56 – 78] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [34 – 41] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [36 – 19] Gulf League
The Run Down
The Nationals just signed Brian Bruney and Ivan Rodriguez which gives them a few veterans on a team that graduated eight prospects this year. Jordan Zimmermann, before his injury (Tommy John surgery), was looking sharp and had some significant support for his future ace status. Now his future is up in the air. Enter Stephen Strasburg, whose hype is beyond the stratosphere, and Drew Storen, who was drafted in 2009 with the 10th overall pick in the draft. The Nats received the 10th draft pick because they failed to sign Aaron Crow in 2008 (Crow was drafted and signed by the Royals in 2009). Grey has already mentioned what to expect from Strasburg, and consequently, I won’t belabor the point – just keep your expectations in check.
Even with so many rookies playing this year, many of them pitchers, the Nationals could actually contend within this year. They have a decent infield (Dunn, Ian Desmond, Cristian Guzman and Ryan Zimmerman) and a young, athletic outfield (Elijah Dukes, Nyjer Morgan and Justin Maxwell). If the Nationals can sign a veteran starting pitcher, they could have some success in 2010. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see the team win 10 more games this year with a slightly improved rotation. John Lannan pitched decent in 2009, repeating all his 2008 numbers besides his terrible strikeout per nine innings. They still have a lot of ground to make up, however, the Nationals should start to make noise in the near future.
Arizona Fall League Players – Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers – Strasburg, Storen, Jeff Mandel, Josh Wilkie
Hitters – #3 – (1B) Chris Marrero, #14 – (SS) Danny Espinosa, (C) Sean Rooney
Players of Interest Hitters #3 – Chris Marrero | 1B | 20 | A+/AA | .284/.358/.452 | 489 AB | 27 2B | 17 HR | .178 ISO | 115:50 K:BB | .343 BABIP | 46.3 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 38.4 FB%
Back in early September, I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article on Marrero. Here is me quoting me, “Marrero is projected to hit 20 to 25 homers with decent average and above average plate coverage and average plate discipline. He is a below average runner and defensive range at first base, but does have a good arm and soft hands – which serve little worth if he cannot get to the ball. Scouts, managers and team reps rave about his work ethic and have high hopes … He should start in AA to open the 2010 season and possibly move up to AAA by the middle of June and get a chance to show himself to the world by September – assuming he doesn’t get injured or struggle with the jump to AAA. However his promotions go, he still strikeouts too much for a hitter to have an average over .275 and his plate discipline is adequate – nothing spectacular, but nothing awful – and his ISO has been average too. He isn’t the sexy power hitter like Mike Stanton, the all round player like Heyward, or even the hitting scarce position prospect like Carlos Santana. However, he reminds me of Kyle Blanks [and can do what he] did this year before he went down with an injury. He has the potential to be the Nationals starting first baseman by 2011.” Much the same remains.
#6 – Derek Norris | C | 20 | A | .286/.413/.513 | 437 AB | 30 2B | 23 HR | .227 ISO | 116:90 K:BB | .342 BABIP | 35.6 GB% | 20.2 LD% | 44.2 FB%
He has great plate discipline and is an extremely patient hitter. He’s thrown out 39% of runners in his young career. After playing third base until his senior year in high school, Norris doesn’t have a lot of experience behind the plate as noted by 28 passed balls this year and 16 last year. His defense projects to be adequate at best, while most inside organizational members predict him changing positions to utilize his tremendous hitting skills.
#14 – Danny Espinosa | SS | 22 | A+ | .264/.375/.460 | 474 AB | 31 2B | 18 HR | .196 ISO | 29/11 SB/CS | 129:74 K:BB | 50.1 GB% | 13 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Espinosa is an average player at best with only a strong and accurate arm as his plus tool. His defense is above average too. However, he is a scrappy player that projects to be nothing more than a bench player. The other asset, besides his stellar defense, is his excellent base stealing skills. He isn’t extremely fast, but he knows when and how to get that extra base. He was rated a higher prospect than Ian Desmond (14 to 19) and if there are an abundance of injuries in the infield next year, Espinosa could get called upon.
Pitchers #21 – Marco Estrada | RH (SP) | 25 | AAA | 6.5 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 136 1/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 3.46 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .300 BABIP | 42.6 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 39.4 FB% | 14.7 IF/F
Throws his fastball between 90 and 94 mph, keeping it regularly in the upper half of that range. He has a plus change-up and a curve he throws at two different speeds to keep hitters off guard. Not much of strikeout pitcher, but he throws strikes and makes them count. He has thrown 20 innings in the majors the last two years combined with little success. Estrada has the tools to fight for a back-end rotation spot in spring training. Think 2009 Carl Pavano-type numbers if given a chance to pitch all year.
Josh Wilkie | RH (RP) | 24 | AA/AAA | 8.2 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 71 2/3 IP | 2.64 ERA | 1.17 WHIP | .327 BABIP | 53.9 GB% | 5.5 LD% | 37.8 FB% | 11.7 IF/F [Career rates of 52.4 GB% | 12 LD% | 33.6 FB% | 11.8 IF/F in 239 2/3 IP]
Does an awesome job keeping the ball in the park (10 homers allowed in 239 2/3 IP) and on the ground (52.4 GB%; For perspective, Joel Pineiro has a career 48.2 GB% and a 60 GB% in 2009). Wilkie has never been a starter and consequently has never been a top prospect. Wilkie may get a chance in spring training, but more realistically he’ll open the season in Triple-A and get a call up if the Nationals need bullpen help in the middle of the summer.
Brad Meyers | RH (SP) | 23 | A+/AA | 7.1 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 136 1/3 IP | 1.72 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | .279 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14 LD% | 34 FB% | 13.4 IF/F
Like Wilkie and Pineiro, he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park (13 HR in 283 2/3 IP). Keep an eye on him if he can keep pitching well at Double-A. His numbers were better at Double-A than at High-A this year too.
Looking around the jumbled mess of the internet, I found this rather interesting article over at FanGraphs detailing the bust rate of minors league players relative to their letter grade given by scouts. The grading scale was based upon Baseball America. It is short, interesting, and it pertains; so go read it. Secondly, Jason Heyward was named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America on last Friday. I talked about him here and Grey talked about him here. Keep your eye on him next spring because the Minor League Player of the Year usually is in the majors by the next year (it was with Wieters, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and you get the point); whether it is to start the season, or by the middle of the season, he’ll be up sooner rather than latter.
Josh Lindblom | SP/RP | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 6/15/87 | 6-5 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | LAD #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Control (96) | K-Rating (85) | Efficiency (95)
He transferred twice while in college, and during his last transfer when he went to Purdue, he switched from a starting pitcher to their closer. This caused his draft value to drop the following year. The Dodgers swooped in and drafted Lindblom in the second round. The Dodgers wanted to stretch him back out into a starter and they did that in 2008. He didn’t pitch that much in 2008 because of his career innings and that he had to be stretched back out. However, this year he started 14 games (11 in AA), but he pitched out of the bullpen in 17 games at AAA. This could be for a few reasons, though I am speculating as I didn’t find any article detailing the switch back. The first reason I can think of is to keep his innings down but allow him to work on his pitches all year. Secondly, the Dodgers want him in the closer role (I doubt it). Lastly, there is no third option.
Lindblom possesses a fastball that can reach 96 mph when he pitches out of the bullpen, but it stays around 89 to 94 mph when he starts; a slider with a fair amount of lateral movement; a splitter that induces a good share of ground balls and strikeouts; and a change-up that he rarely uses (as of spring 2008). He has a striking command of the mound, a smooth delivery, but his high arm slot makes it easy for batters to pick up the pitch. On a praiseworthy note, Peter Gammons during spring training said of Lindblom, “Best young arm I saw all spring in Arizona.” Here are his stats:
08 (totals) 9.8 K/9 | 1.3 BB/9 | 34 IP | .5 HR/9 | 2.12 ERA | .71 WHIP | 9/9 GS/G
(A) 10.24 K/9 | 1.24 BB/9 | 29 IP | .62 HR/9 | 1.86 ERA | .62 WHIP | 8/8 GS/G
(AA) 7.2 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 5 IP | 0 HR/9 | 3.6 ERA | 1.2 WHIP | 1/1 GS/1 09 (totals) 7.7 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 96 1/3 IP | .7 HR/9 | 3.83 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 14/34 GS/G
(AA) 7.22 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 57 1/3 IP | .63 HR/9 | 4.71 ERA | 1.2 WHIP | 11/14 GS/G
(AAA) 8.3 K/9 | 2.77 BB/9 | 39 IP | .69 HR/9 | 2.54 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 3/20 GS/G As SP 7.67 K/9 | 2.18 BB/9 | 95 IP | .66 HR/9 | .98 WHIP As RP 8.92 K/9 | 1.24 BB/9 | 36 1/3 IP | .25 HR/9 | 1.05 WHIP
Career .269 BABIP
He has performed well in both roles (starter and reliever) and could be used out of the rotation as soon as spring 2010. He has above average control (2.1 BB/9 for career), above average strikeout rates (8.2 K/9) but he has only pitched in 130 professional innings. If the Dodgers want to use him as a starter, his innings should be severally limited. If he makes the team as a reliever he could help all you, MR. Bs (Middle Reliever Believers). Realistically, the Dodgers are going to make him a June call up to save on arbitration and his innings. He looks like he could be an adequate number three starter or top of the line closer or end of the bullpen-type pitcher.
Chris Marrero | 1B | Washington Nationals | DOB: 7/2/88 | 6-3 | 210 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | WAS #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Power (90) | Speed (1) | Contact (34) | Patience (46)
Per request of Glenn Gulliver’s Travels, here is Washington’s top hitting prospect (with Michael Burgess a close second). Having spent most of 2008 on the disabled list with a broken fibula from catching his cleat in the dirt while sliding home, he bounced back this year hitting extremely well. He started rookie ball at age 17, which is the same age Vitters started rookie ball. However, Marrero has played in a league higher than Vitters at each age jump, performing far better at each level. Marrero is projected to hit 20 to 25 homers with decent average and above average plate coverage and average plate discipline. He is a below average runner and defensive range at first base, but does have a good arm and soft hands – which serve little worth if he cannot get to the ball. Scouts, managers and team reps rave about his work ethic and have high hopes. Here are his stats:
06 (R) .309/.374/.420 | 81 AB | 0/.111 HR/ISO | 23.5 K% | 9 BB% | .403 BABIP 07 (totals).275/.338/.484 | 484 AB | 23 HR
A .293/.337/.545 | 222 AB | 14/.252 HR/ISO | 17.6 K% | 5.9 BB% | .302 BABIP
A+ .259/.338/.431 | 255 AB | 9/.173 HR/ISO | 24.7 K% | 11.1 BB% | .338 BABIP 08 (A+) .250/.325/.435 | 289 AB | 11/.203 HR/ISO | 21.5 K% | 8.9 BB% | .279 BABIP 09 (totals) .284/.358/.452 | 489 AB | 17 HR
A+ .287/.360/.464 | 414 AB | 16/.176 HR/ISO | 23.4 K% | 9.2 BB% | .312 BABIP
AA .267/.345/.387 | 75 AB | 1/.120 HR/ISO | 24 K% | 9.6 BB% | .339 BABIP Career: Against LHP .300/.386/.462 | 327 AB | 13 HR Against RHP .269/.333/.458 | 970 AB | 37 HR
The Nationals have not produced a top hitter since Ryan Zimmerman back in 2006. They have had talented players in their system, they just don’t pan out. Marrero is by far their best power hitting prospect and, at only age 21, he still has time to produce. He should start in AA to open the 2010 season and possibly move up to AAA by the middle of June and get a chance to show himself to the world by September – assuming he doesn’t get injured or struggle with the jump to AAA. However his promotions go, he still strikeouts too much for a hitter to have an average over .275 and his plate discipline is adequate – nothing spectacular, but nothing awful – and his ISO has been average too. He isn’t the sexy power hitter like Mike Stanton, the all round player like Heyward, or even the hitting scarce position prospect like Carlos Santana. However, he reminds me of Kyle Blanks did this year before he went down with an injury. He has the potential to be the Nationals starting first baseman by 2011.
