Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s trade deadline time, a full baseball weekend, and Grey is at a crawfish festival asking ladies whether he has any chum in his moustache.  Anyway, the Indians spoiled the Yanks and Sawx plans by nabbing Ubaldo for a bunch of prospects including their top two pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White).  Moving to the AL Central is definitely better for Ubaldo’s stock than the AL East and you’d think moving a mile closer to sea level for home games would help in the long run.  I expect a good finish this year for him as ALers adjust to his stuff.

As for Pence, what a shocker that Philadelphia and Houston made a trade!  Ruben Amaro Jr. is like the jerk in a fantasy baseball keeper league who keeps tapping the same goober (Ed Wade) for advantageous trades.  The Phillies got Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt the past two years and the Astros have Brett Wallace, JA Happ, and (had) Michael Bourn to show for it.  Time will tell whether the prospects in this trade are worth it but the change in scenery should definitely help Pence.  He hit 5th on Sunday which should give him some solid RBI opportunities behind Utley and Howard.  Plus, he can look forward to many Pence-sylvania puns!

In other news…

Erik Bedard - The Red Sox nixed a trade with Oakland for Rich Harden because of injury concerns and then ok’d a trade to Seattle for Erik Bedard.  When pressed on why they signed off on Bedard but not Harden, Red Sox doctors pointed out that Bedard’s right arm looked a lot healthier than Harden’s.  We’re disappointed they didn’t pull off both trades.  They could put Erich Bedarden as the probable starter and then start the healthy one.  Suffice it to say, going from Seattle to Boston should only help Bedard’s Wins, hurt his ERA/WHIP, and maim non-New Englanders’ eardrums during unsuccessful home starts (You sahck cahk Bedahd!).

Michael  Bourn - Traded to Atlanta for Jordan Schafer and the Atlanta B-prospect orchestra.  This was all news to him when he woke up today in the wrong part of Atlanta, not knowing how he got there.  Luckily he outran all his attackers until he was able to surmise his past role as a SAGNOF operative.

Rafael Furcal - Traded to the Cardinals.  McCourt offered to send a $10,000 check as well if the Cards could just wire him $5,000.  No real change in value for Furcal.  He’s barely startable when healthy and barely healthy when he starts.

Dee Gordon - With Furcal traded, the Dee Gordon era has arrived in LA.  Dodger fans, SAGNOF fans, and What’s Happening fans, rejoice!

Doug Fister - The Mariners traded Fister to a team (Tigers) where he might have a chance at the occasional win.  Fister has 3 wins and 12 losses (only 2nd in the AL to Jeremy Guthrie’s 13 losses) despite a 3.33 / 1.17 ERA/WHIP.  Fister’s lack of K’s (5.5 Ks) makes him only spot start worthy in shallow mixed leagues.  I just wish Seattle would’ve added catcher Adam Moore to the deal to preserve possibly the best pitcher-catcher battery of all-time (Fister-Moore).

Chris Davis - He’ll finally get his 3rd chance to prove he’s a major league hitter after getting traded with Tommy Hunter to Baltimore for Koji Uehara.  If he’s your best option at cornerman, my condolences.   I can see Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds becoming great friends, swapping tips on how to walk back to the dugout after striking out.

Brandon Allen - Man, just when Arizona started playing him, they trade him to the A’s for Brad Ziegler.  Allen is getting sent to AAA for now but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets called up soon.

Paul Goldschmidt - With Allen out of town, the Diamondbacks plan to call him up to take over at 1B.  He’s shown great power and I’d give him a flier as a corner power option.  I predict he’ll surpass Jason Schmidt (7) and end up with the 2nd most career HRs for someone with Schmidt in their last name.

Mike Adams – Traded to the Rangers for two pitching prospects where he apologized to all owners who held onto him in mixed leagues hoping he’d inherit the Padres closer job when Heath Bell was traded.  He’s still worth owning as a middle reliever – especially as a handcuff if you own Feliz.

Ryan Ludwick - Traded to the Pirates.  His value moves from yaaawwwn to yawn.  Once Tabata comes back, this is going to mean a big drop in playing time for Garrett Jones.

Derrek Lee – Also traded to the Pirates.  He’s been hitting of late and is serviceable when on a hitting streak.   In related news, if your beer league softball team needs a 1B, Lyle Overbay is available.

Orlando Cabrera - Traded to the Giants as Sabean is looking for the right mix of Tejada’s over-the-hillness and Brandon Crawford’s weak bat.

Lance Berkman – Returned after a few days off to hit a 3-run HR on Sunday.  That’s 28 HRs in 308 ABs.  See Colby, that’s what happens when you listen to the Cardinals coaches.  Although, it should be said, that McGwire’s success with Berkman is largely because Lance pictures a Big Mac in place of McGwire’s face when getting batting tips.  If only the Astros had hired Mayor McCheese as batting coach…

Justin Verlander – Took a no-hitter into the 8th inning for the 3rd time this year, outdueling AL Cy Young front-runner Jered Weaver in a 3-2 win.  He’s now 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 178 Ks in 181 IP.  Almost every award prediction I made this preseason looks awful except Verlander for Cy Young.  If only I drafted him on one of our teams.

Jered Weaver – Lost the duel against Verlander to ‘fall’ to 14-5 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  Worse yet, he got ejected for throwing one high and tight on pitch after Carlos Guillen took a few minutes to admire his HR.  While I can see why Weaver was mad, he needs to realize that might’ve been one of the only notable accomplishments for Guillen in like 4 years.  Let the man have his moment.

Domonic Brown – Sent down to AAA as the Phillies decided John Mayberry at least lets them put out an MVP outfield (Mayberry, Victorino, Pence).

Joe Saunders - Oh the joys of pitching in the NL West.  He’s followed up a complete game victory @SD with a 7.2 IP, 2 ER win against LA.  He’s got another start coming up against the Dodgers which makes him a pretty solid streaming candidate.

Jeremy Hellickson – The H-E-double hockey st-ickson is bringing the Devil back into the Rays.  He got his 10th win of the year albeit against the Mariners and with only 2 Ks in 7 IP.  At 10-7, Hellickson and Pineda are battling for top non-Roofie this year.

Brett Wallace / Chris Johnson – The ineffective corners of Houston were sent down to AAA.  This will finally give some playing time to top prospects…..oops, those are their top prospects.  That’s the bad karma you get when you play in the park formerly known as Enron Field.  Unlike Ed Wade, at least the Enron executives got to feel like the ‘Smartest Men in the Room’ for a little while.

Jason Bourgeois – Slam and legs with an extra side of legs for the upper class Astro.  With Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence gone, Bourgeois should get plenty of time to hit at the top of the lineup and steal bases.  Given the current state of the Astros lineup (Bourgeois hit 3rd on Sunday!), he better steal during his first 3 ABs because there may not be a 4th AB.

Emilio Bonifacio - His hitting streak was snapped at 26 games but he did hit a HR on Sunday.  Mr. Dimaggio, you dodged a bullet.  Mr. Bonds, hope you’re ready for some Boneface.

Johnny Cueto – Threw a 3-hit shutout against the new look Giants offense.  Why can’t Volquez take a sip of whatever Cueto is drinking (1.72 ERA / 0.98 WHIP)?

Coco Crisp – 3 SBs to tie his career high from last year at 32 SBs.  No wonder why Ice-T loves him so much.

Juan Nicasio - 7 IP, 1 ER and 10 Ks at San Diego – his first good road start this whole year.  I’d say he’s a great bet for K’s but he has only K’d more than 6 in one other start…..@COL against the Padres (9 Ks).  The R0ckies should rest him for a few weeks and then start him every game in their next series with San Diego.  Also, not for nothing, if his parents had gringo’d his name to John, he could have had the best 80′s keyboardist name of all time (Johnny Casio).

Roger Bernadina – In the midst of an 0-for-17 slump (or 8-for-50 if you want to go back further), the Nats sent him down to AAA.  For the love of SAGNOF, WTF?!  Ankiel owners should benefit the most from this although, if anyone owns Ankiel in a shallow mixed league, they probably checked out 3 months ago.  On Sunday, the Nats decided to start Brian Bixler in CF.  This is the Brian Bixler whose awful bat (.177/.237/.227 in 203 ABs) wasn’t good enough for Pittsburgh’s SS position (when they sucked).  This was the equivalent of Bixler taking a bat and hitting Bernadina in the balls – assuming Bixler would actually make contact.

Brandon McCarthy - Two straight wins for McCarthy after dispatching the Twins yesterday with a 9 K effort.  He’s doing his part to rid the McCarthy name of its embarrassing affiliation with Communist witch-hunts, vaccination witch-hunts, and falling for redheads from the wrong side of the tracks.  If you leave Brandon, don’t leave now!

Dustin Moseley - The NL Doug Fister (3-10 despite a 3.30 ERA) went on the 15 day DL with a bad shoulder on his non-pitching arm.  That’s weak.  Jim Abbott pitched just fine with a bad arm on his non-pitching shoulder.

I’ve given much love to Desmond Jennings already on this blog, and since what I’ve previously wrote still works, indulge me for a second, “Desmond’s time is nigh, a word that only sounds negative.  DJ is currently on the ones and twos for top ranked MLB prospects.  He’s ranked number one for me.  Numero uno.  The Big Mahoff.  Dora the Explorer, Boots the Monkey and Swiper the Fox all wrapped in one!  (What, not street enough?)  If he reaches the top end of his ceiling, you’re looking at Carl Crawford.  More likely, you’re going to open up this Crackerjack and get half a Carl Crawford.  Say a Carlford.  You ain’t got the Craw yet, kid!”  And that’s me quoting me!  In 2010, he swiped 37 bags with a .362 OBP in Triple-A.  In only 57 games in Triple-A this year, 9 homers and 10 steals.  Somebody gag Sam Fuld, put a gorilla suit on him and send him to Africa.  We want Jennings.  *fast-herpes-medication-side-effect-voice*  Fuld should be benched any day now for Jennings’ call-up.  Or in the next week or so.  It’s worth the flyer for upside.  If conditions persist for longer than 48 hours, call your doctor.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Dee Gordon – Gordon is so fast he just ran into Kitchen Stadium, spit on Michael Symon’s head, buffed it and ran out without Alton even noticing.  I see no reason why you shouldn’t own Gordon everywhere for a few weeks to see if he not only sticks but steals some bases.  For more on my Dee Gordon fantasy, see that link.  I wrote it while picking out all the strawberry Dippin’ Dots from the Banana Split mix.

Jemile Weeks – I’m less excited about Jemile because his power and speed aren’t of the game-changing variety.  Could he get hot and be a worthwhile pickup in all leagues?  Do I call 16-year-old girls that are dressed too old for their age prostitots?  Yes and yes.

Cord Phelps – Um…Well…He has patience.  Great, go back to school and become a kindergarten teacher.  He’s all right in AL-Only leagues where anyone with a starting job is worth owning.

Scott Sizemore – He’s better than Cord Phelps, who is one of those guys you have to say both his names for it to sound right, but Sizemore’s playing time is a bit iffier.

Anthony Rizzo – I just went over my Anthony Rizzo fantasy.  I wrote that while riding an ostrich through downtown Detroit.

Mike Carp – He was hitting the dickens out the ball in the PCL, but since that’s so hitter friendly I wouldn’t have great expectations.

Mike Moustakas – I just went over my Mike Moustakas fantasy.  Scroll down, it’ll burn calories and then you can have some extra dessert.

Chris Johnson – He’s pretty yawnstipating but he has been hitting better this month.  Do what you will with that information.  Keep in mind, you may have to hold a gun to my head in the comments to tell you to pick him up.  Or I guess you could just ask me if I like him or Chone Figgins.

Miguel Olivo – He’s hitting home runs.  Plural-ing there on purpose, because he doesn’t ever hit just one.  He’s like the Lay’s of catchers.

Charlie Blackmon – Dexter Fowler is sidelined due to sucking so the Rox called up Blackmon.  Blackmon is actually an exciting flyer if this wasn’t the Rockies who have 5 great upside flyers per position.  Hey, Rockies, take a cue from the Astros and get boring.  Thank you!

Lucas Duda – Supposed to be called up today.  Zip-a-dee-Duda, zip-a-dee-ay.  My, oh my, what a Duda day.  He has slightly-above average power and no speed.  Outside of very deep mixed leagues and NL-Only leagues, I’d wait to see what Duda brings to the Camptown Races.

Ben Revere – He feels like one of those short-term plays that actually stays in your fantasy lineup for much longer because he’s producing.  Wherever you’re struggling with a 5th outfielder, I’d give him a shot.

Nyjer Morgan – Here’s the situation, last year Chris Volstad hit Nyjer Morgan with a pitch, Nyjer Morgan charged the mound and got mollywhopped.  Cut to last week, Nyjer comes up to face Volstad and takes him deep.  The face on Nyjer as he trotted around the bases sorta made him my new favorite player ever in everdom.  Then I dug into what other shenanigans he’s been up to and I found a video that sums him up in a big ball of crazy.  He gets the walk-off hit and had no idea, he thought his team was winning.  Yes, he thought his team was winning even though they were the home team and it was the ninth inning.  I love you, Nyjer.  Don’t ever change, or get arrested for whatever drugs you’re on.  Oh, as for fantasy, he’s on the strong side of a platoon and can steal.

Jason Bourgeois – If you can swap him in and out of your lineup, you may get 30+ steals from a part-time player.  Cust kayin’.

Xavier Paul – He could be 12-team mixed league worthy if he had a starting job.  Unfortunately, he’s not the fortunate one.  In NL-Only daily leagues, I’d grab him, but you gotta be ready to put your keys in the fish bowl and swap.

Rubby de la Rosa – There’s something so rhythmic about the last name de la Rosa that you can put any name in front and it sounds cool.  “Hola, compadres, Grey de la Rosa aqui, let’s talk fantasy!”  See?  The great thing about Rubby is he can strike out hitters.  Though he does walk people, that’s the rub(by).

Edinson Volquez – “Striking out and walking people?  That’s my bag, baby!”  That’s Volquez reading the last blurb.

Dillon Gee – You know the Hodpadres get a lot of love here, but the guys toeing the rubber in Metco seem underappreciated.  I’m about to course correct.  Hope you ain’t too cool for the safe belt.

Jon Niese – His home ERA is 2.76.  Okay, course corrected.

Charlie Morton – I’ve been telling you to pick him up since April.  He has a 2.52 ERA.  It won’t stay that low, but, c’mon, you can still own him.

Javy Guerra – “Muahahahahahaha…”  That’s Mattingly laughing at you trying to figure out who his closer is.

Jon Rauch – Farrell said Rauch is the Blue Jays closer.  Then Farrell sang, “Tattoos make great necks…They’ll make great necks!”

SELL

Justin Morneau – Your best bet at this point is to pull off The Patented Flip-Flop Flop* (*Patent pending).  The Patented Flip-Flop Flop* (*Patent pending) is when you take an underwhelming star and trade them for someone else’s headache.  Because, really, what else are you going to do with this schmohawk at this point?  If you can’t pull off a Patented Flip-Flop Flop* (*Patent pending), in most 12 team and under leagues, it’s time to cut bait.  He’s playing hurt and he looks like he should be shutdown.

Adam Dunn – I’ve ranked these four Sell candidates for The Patented Flip-Flop Flop* (*Patent pending) in order of least chance of a rebound to greatest.  I’m worried about Dunn more than Uggla because of the position eligibility and because of Ozzie.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ozzie sit Dunn vs. all lefties moving forward even if he starts hitting.  Not saying Dunn shouldn’t sit vs. them but it’ll hurt his counting stats either way.  Or Ethier way.  I do think Dunn can still get to 30 home runs, but the average and counting stats will probably be poor.

Dan Uggla – It’s as simple as the nose on your face (and the eye patch you wear just for looks).  If Uggla hits .220 and 25 home runs at 2nd base, it’s not good, but it would be worse at 1st base.  Am I trading a decent guy for him?  No, I’m not.  I would trade one of the two above schmohawks for him though.  And I’d trade Josh Tomlin for him.  And other players of that ilk.  And, yes, ilk is as douchey a word to write as it is to say.

Shin-Soo Choo – You know when they say a player just has to get out of his own way?  Yeah, I don’t know who they are, but they could’ve been talking about Choo.  Nothing wrong with Choo other than he’s in a shame spiral about his DUI and he’s about to commit seppuku.  He just needs a good talking to and maybe a marathon bukkake session and Choo will be back doing what he do.  I’d still sell him, I just wouldn’t sell him for a Groupon for a Segway tour of the South Bronx.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2011 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2011 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Astros County.

1. I’m having a hard time thinking Chris Johnson will be as productive over a full season as he was in a little over half of a year.  What’s your take?

It’s certainly reasonable to assume that Johnson won’t have as strong of a 2011 (that .387 BABIP is dangling in the edge of ridiculousness). So once pitchers figure out his strengths (hitting while ahead in the count) and his weaknesses (hitting things other than fastballs), he’ll be due for some regression. But I hope not.

2. I’m a sucker for strikeouts.  I wouldn’t mind seeing something other than strikeouts though.  Which brings us to Bud Norris.  Can he shave a run off his ERA in 2010?  Maintain his 9+ K/9?  Lower his walk rate?

The best way for Norris to improve is with his consistency. He had six starts last season in which he didn’t make it out of the 5th, and six starts where he pitched 7+ innings. He’s going to have to be more efficient, and that’s going to come with not walking guys, something he did quite a bit in 2010. Norris only had one start in which he didn’t walk a batter and four more where he only walked one, and seven starts where he walked 4+ batters. With pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in his second season, I think Astros fans expect him to improve.

3. Brett Wallace’s been passed around more than a spliff at a Cypress Hill concert.  Can he settle in at 1st base and be productive in 2010?

Ha! Something that I like to point out regarding Brett Wallace’s frequent-flyer status is, look who he got traded for: Matt Holliday, Michael Taylor, and Anthony Gose – a player who the Blue Jays were apparently foaming at the mouth to get. But whether he’ll be productive in 2011? That’s what keeps Ed Wade up at night. He’ll be given a chance, but I’m not sure how long his leash will be. The Astros have more OF options in the farm system than 1B options. So if Wallace struggles in Spring Training, Carlos Lee will be your huckleberry at 1B.

4. Hunter Pence looks like he’s settled into a solid 25/15 man, +/- 3 on either.  Can he have one of those improbable 35 homer seasons and surprise everyone?

It’s possible. He’s been pretty consistent in the 15% range as far as homers and flyballs, but he hits a lot of grounders. That’s a short left-field at Minute Maid Park, so if it’s going to happen anywhere, he’s in the right spot.

5. Chris McGarry is playing Ed Wade in the Moneyball movie.  Any truth that Ed Wade’s toupee will be played by Robin Williams?

It was my understanding that Burt Reynolds was playing Ed Wade’s toupee, and the toupee gets traded to the Phillies midway through the movie.

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 150.  Shoot, I suggest you get one before leaving the 2nd round, but those scenarios aren’t always possible.  So what what what what is the scenario if you miss out on one?  This list of guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2011 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2011 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Jose Lopez – “Hahahahahahahaha… Whoaaaaaa.  Hahahahahahahaha… Seriously, dubya tee eff?!  Are you dropping a Mr. Winky, the emoticon, on me?!”  That was what my thirteen-year-old niece texted me when I told her Jose Lopez was the first deep sleeper if you start looking for a 3rd baseman after the top 150.  If you take nothing else away from this post, know you need a 3rd baseman earlier than the 12th round in 12 team drafts.  Also, you should probably infer that if you play with a corner infidel, you better have a 1st baseman slotted in there, as well.

Jhonny Peralta – When you see The Silent H make an appearance you just know this list smacks with excitement, right?

Chris Johnson – Here’s what I said in the top 20 3rd baseman post, “Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.”  And that’s me quoting me!

David Freese – I kinda like Freese the best on this list if you take into account his ADP, but you can’t own him in anything but deep mixed and/or NL-Only daily leagues.  He’s got a cankle issue and might not play more than 5 days a week.

Danny Valencia – Sounds like a star of a telenovela, right?  Danny Valencia, no cocina mi corazon! Valencia is a nice name to look at in AL-Only leagues.  If you’re drafting him in 12 team, mixed leagues, there’s a chance he will cook your heart.

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really want a top 3rd baseman.  I ain’t mucking around.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Evan Longoria – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Longoria’s projections.

2. David Wright – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Wright’s projections.

3. Ryan Zimmerman – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Zimmerman’s projections.

4. Alex Rodriguez – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is A-Rod’s projections.

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections.  (Note:  He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)

6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee.  I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?”  If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction.  I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More.  The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009.  You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos.  2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12

7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state.  To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding.  His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier.  I’m sure his mother is proud.  2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out.  His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further.  Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk.  I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard.  Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner.  2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5

9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average.  And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval.  Usually they’re less.  Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee.  Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck.  2011 Projections:  75/24/90/.280

10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Aramis.  I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.”  I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy.  If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league.  He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011.  He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him.  (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.)  2011 Projections:  70/27/85/.260/3

11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar.  See what I did there?!  It’s cologne humor!  I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts.  Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again?  Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280

12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Sandoval.  I call this tier, “No, thanks.”  Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind.  There, I said it.  I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games.  Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista?   His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%.  Last year, it was 21.7%.  That’s absurd.  If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats.  That was in his best season!  There’s still no warning signs?  How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October?  Still not enough?  Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5

13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like?  No, not Rerun.  He looks like a young Lyle Overbay.  I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay.  High teen power, good average.  It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year.  2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3

14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen.  I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year.  Well, they’re not all world wide web gems.  I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco.  In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average.  Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers.  2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7

16. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers.  That’s someone you should draft.  Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning:  you may get nothing.”  I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey.  It was a lot of brays to live up to.  So why do I still believe in him?  Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs.  With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average.  Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him.  Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties.  In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame.  2011 Projections:  65/22/75/.260/5

19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros?  Yes, yes it is.  Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.  2011 Projections:  65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)

20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed.  Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point.  If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot.  If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece.  If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t.  Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average.  It’s a’ight.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.300

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:

Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy.  It involves some PG-13 nudity.  2011 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy.  I only slotted him down here to highlight him.  If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power.  In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers.  In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats.  He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise.  2011 Projections:  70/20/80/.300/3