Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Purple Row.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.

Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2010 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to  read more and see their 2010 projections.  This is a supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting³.  But so is losing your league.

Chris Iannetta – He’s exciting, but has Hacky McHackstein breathing down his neck.  For Iannetta’s upside, I’m grabbing him in a few leagues.  Playing time be damned!  The nice thing about going for upside at catcher is no one wants to own more than one (in one catcher leagues), so if you don’t like the catcher you have, there’s plenty more on the waiver wire.

Geovany Soto – Punting doesn’t mean you want to avoid getting value at catcher.

Carlos Ruiz – He just missed the cut for the top 20 catcher post.  It wasn’t easy to leave him off after his bit torrent 2nd half last year.  In less at-bats, he doubled his homers from the first half and added forty points on his batting average.  Unfortunately, his first half was like watching someone suck a boba through a regular-sized straw.  In the 2nd half, he hit 6 homers and batted .276.  So better than the first half, still not incredible.  He has a good lineup for RBIs, so he could be a very minor surprise.  Think 45/14/65/.260/3.

J.R. Towles – Here’s what I said last year in the preseason with added notes in parentheses, “In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009 (or in 2010).  You just need to throw out 2008 (and 2009).  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors (in 2008.  Then ignore his .188 average in 2009, because he had a .233 BABIP).   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.”  And that’s me amending me, quoting me and paraphrasing T.I.!

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This guy is even more frustrating than Towles because I have to spell his stoopid name every time I want to write about him.  Saltymochachino is somehow still only 25 years old though it feels like he’s been hyped forever.  If he pans out, he could give you top ten catcher numbers.  Think 60/17/75/.250, but those are Boras speculative numbers when he’s trying to get Salty a contract.

Mike Napoli – This always drives me flippin’ crazy about ESPN.  They’ll rank someone (Napoli at 219) very low.  They’ll rank him after Doumit, Yadier Molina et al (<– Not the Israeli airline) then say Napoli’s a sleeper.  They’ll say he’s better than Molina, Doumit, etc.  Everyone knows this and ranks Napoli above those guys so he’s not a sleeper.  Once again, ESPN’s in the monkey house too long.

Jeff Clement – Looking for this year’s Inge?  A guy that plays another position while rocking the sweet, sweet eligibility of catcher?  Yeah, I don’t know if there’s one of those guys this year, but Clement’s the closest we have.  His upside is 20 homers and solid RBIs from playing every day.  His downside is not playing every day.  I’d conservatively put his 2010 projections at 55/15/65/.255.

No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  So in 12 team leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s dressed like Johnny Weir and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher.  There’s always available options on waivers.

The top 3 options at catcher last year, who still have eligibility this year, are Mauer, Martinez and McCann.  (Wieters might have to flip his W over to keep with the theme.)  After those guys we have Suzuki, Posada, Montero, A.J. and Napoli.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Suzuki, Montero and A.J.), one guy who went in the last rounds of drafts (Posada) and one guy who I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Clement and Jesus Flores ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2010, I’d say, “I told you Iannetta was a good bargain,” and I’d ask if I used, “The Resurrection of Jesus Flores” as a post title.  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up those little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  Bengie Molina.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts this Flying Molina Brother until around the 15th round.  His stats last year were 52/20/80/.265.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 88/23/108/.303/1; he gets drafted 23rd overall, according to Mock Draft Central.  The difference between the two was 36/3/28, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  With Adrian Gonzalez, who gets drafted right around V-Mart’s spot, vs. Jorge Cantu, a 1st baseman around Bengie’s spot, the difference is 24 homers.  A shortstop comparison would be Rollins vs. Yunel.  A pitcher comparison would be F-Her vs. Ryan Dempster.  At catcher, you can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

Okay, so it’s not the best 2010 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2010 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting a player from every 12 players, according to my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  So it would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Lincecum in the first round and I was able to take Longoria and Howard, but since they’re both in the first 12, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Also, as we all know, once you get into the 100s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  For this exercise, I’m going to limit myself to a player just like in a snake draft, no matter what.  So if I choose Pujols, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then a player from somewhere in the next 12 picks.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench.  Anyway, here’s the best 2010 fantasy baseball team:

C:  Chris Iannetta (15)

1B: Albert Pujols (1)

2B: Brandon Phillips (4)

SS: Elvis Andrus (10)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)

MI: Alcides Escobar (16)

CI: Ian Stewart (9)

OF: Justin Upton (2)

OF: Adam Jones (5)

OF: Raul Ibanez (8)

OF: Corey Hart (13)

OF: Ryan Ludwick (18)

UT: Brandon Wood (24)

P: Josh Johnson (6)

P: Cliff Lee (7)

P: Matt Cain (12)

P: Jonathan Sanchez (17)

P: Gavin Floyd (21)

P: Mat Latos (23)

P: Francisco Cordero (11)

P: Octavio Dotel (14)

P: Bobby Jenks (19)

BENCH:

P: Brandon Lyon (20)

P: Scott Downs (22)

P: Matt Lindstrom (25)

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

Went over the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep.  Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada!  Snooze.  I love Kurt Suzuki this year!  Yawn.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  The fifth best catcher and the 15th best catcher are tomato, to-blah-to.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Barajas?  What’s Spanish for punt?  Punta?); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2010 fantasy baseball under 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2010 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Mauer – This is the first tier.  This tier ends at V-Mart.  I call this tier, “Well, if you’re going to take a top catcher, here they are.”  Went over Mauer’s projections in my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Brian McCann – Everyone has Victor Martinez in this spot, but I’m not everyone.  If you want to read everyone, I’m sure you can find them.  In 2010, McCann is going to be 26 years old; V-Mart is 31.  In one hundred extra at-bats last year, V-Mart only hit 2 more homers.  Am I predicting Martinez runs over a fire hydrant while Jason Varitek chases him with golf clubs?  No, that’s not what I’m saying.  He’s ranked 3rd for me.  Since I’m not drafting either of these guys outside of 2 catcher leagues, it’s all academic.  I think this is the year McCann can blossom, Joey Lawrence.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

3. Victor Martinez – As mentioned above (you are reading every nook and cranny, right, muffin?), V-Mart’s still as productive as they come.  His move to the Sawx only helped his value.  Though I do think the Sawx hitters are a lot more intimidating in theory than reality.  “Oh, no, Kevin Youkilis.  I’m scared.”  “Watch out, here comes a Latin 34 David Ortiz and he’s wearing a Snuggie cause his old man bones are cold.”  Yeah, I don’t think this is your slightly older brother’s Red Sox who regales you with tales of 2004.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

4. Matt Wieters – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Napoli.  This tier is called, “I like these guys and would draft them, but I’m not drafting them before 100th overall.”  If you were to extrapolate Wieters numbers from last year and if extrapolate were the right word, you’d have a catcher who hit about 16 homers.  As my Jewish grandmother used to say, big whoop.  His splits were encouraging and he’s as talented as the hype is making him out to be.  I could see drafting him then trading him early in the season.  I predict his value will be at its peak just before the season begins.  As you’ll see from my projections, he’ll be good, but, in the end, he’s still a catcher.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

5. Miguel Montero – Montero’s not quite the .294 hitter he was last year and his HR/FB was a bit high, so we shouldn’t expect 20-plus from him.  I’ve seen a lot of fantasy baseball ‘perts put Posada around this spot in their rankings.  What’s Posada, 63 years old?  Bleh.  If Posada hits 22 homers again, I’ll eat my proverbial hat with a side of proverbial crow.  If you’re taking a catcher, why not at least take one with some upside?  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280

6. Mike Napoli – I’m a big fan of Napoli.  Owned him in leagues for the last two years.  Now I’m worried the people in the back of the room have finally caught up to what he can provide and he’ll be overrated.  Or worse, he’ll disappoint just to spite the bandwagoners.  He does not play every game.  You must know that when you draft him.  If you own Napoli, you must follow the Ron Popeil school of catchers and set him and forget him.  2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5

7. Geovany Soto – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Iannetta.  I call this tier, “Post-hype fliers.”  Now remember I’m telling you to punt catcher, so when you see Soto at seven that doesn’t mean grab him in the top 100.  When I say I like Soto this year, it doesn’t mean go crazy with yourself.  He’s still just a catcher.  The reason why I like him and Iannetta this year is because at a shallow position you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t go for an upside pick.  To read more about Geovany Soto fantasy sleeper stuff.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

8. Chris Iannetta – This is my totally out of left field pick at catcher.  There’s no reason why he should be ranked this high.  He doesn’t even have a starting job.  And just because I have him this high doesn’t mean you draft him before someone else takes Posada or Suzuki or Russell Martin.  Iannetta will be there later on in the draft.  He hit 16 homers last year in 289 ABs.  He also had to battle a slew of injuries and a bad line drive rate.  Hey, it’s not all peaches and cream with Iannetta.  Still worth the flier.  2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265

9. Jorge Posada – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pierzynski.  I call this tier, “I wouldn’t draft these guys with your team.”  Posada’s on a great team and he’s shown few signs of slowing down.  He ended up in this tier because he’s just too overrated.  Last year’s homers were fluky.  Yes, I know the new Yankee Stadium plays like a Taiwanese Little League park.  There’s no way Posada’s good for 400 ABs.  He’s old as dog balls.  I give him 17 homers and I’m in a generous mood.  2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

10. Russell Martin – Martin is the opposite of the Post-Hype Sleeper pick.  He is the Still Overrated Because He Plays For The Dodgers pick.  If he played for the Pirates, you wouldn’t even think about drafting him.  He was deriving some value from his speed, but Torre’s abused him worse than the late-90’s Yankees bullpen.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where 5 is average, Martin’s 2006 was 5.4; 2007 was 5.2; 2008 was 3.9 and 2009 was 3.3.  Soon, he’s going to need Lasorda to pinch run for him.  2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

11. Bengie Molina – The chunkier one of The Flying Molina Brothers.  Bengie yawnstipates me.  Is he really that different than Napoli?  No, not really, but he’s got as much upside as a dead parrot.  As of right now, he’s a free agent so he may drop further in these rankings depending on where he signs.  2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270

12. Kurt Suzuki – I look at Suzuki and see a poor man’s Russell Martin.  That’s not a compliment.  2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6

13. Yadier Molina – I see Yadier and I see a poor man’s Kurt Suzuki.  Yes, there’s a pattern emerging and it’s not pretty.  2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5

14. A.J. Pierzynski – Please don’t draft A.J. Pierzynski.  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280

15. Ryan Doumit – This is the last tier.  I call this tier, “You’re obviously in a deep league so take a flier on some upside.”  Dear (fill-in deity of choice), I’m writing to you regarding Ryan Doumit.  All I ask of You is Doumit gets 400 ABs.  If you can make that happen, I promise to no longer cancel my girlfriend’s HGTV DVR recordings and pretend like I had no idea what happened.  2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3

16. Buster Posey – I went over Buster Posey in 250-ish words in the Buster Posey 2010 fantasy outlook post.  2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3

17. Tyler Flowers/Alex Avila – They need a starting job.  I’m working without a net here in January, so whether you draft them or not will be a March call.  You may need to even pick them up off waivers at some point in the season.  This won’t be the last time I write about them in the preseason, definitely will need to update them in spring training.  Flowers has great upside long term, but I’d keep expectations in check for 2010.  Or just remember Wieters’s 2009.  Avila has less upside long term, but more potential for 2010.  In the end, he’s really just some power.  Neither will be ownable unless they’re starting and hot.  Flowers’s 2010 Projections:  40/10/50/.275; Avila’s 2010 Projections:  40/12/55/.250

18. Kelly Shoppach - With Shoppach’s trade to the Rays, he gets a small boost.  He’s still a liability on average.  Though last year’s .214 looks like the outlier.  He’s closer to a .250 hitter.  He’s also still a plus on power.  If he can get 400 ABs, he could challenge 20 homers.  2010 Projections for Shoppach:  55/16/65/.245

19. Jesus Flores – You already know the schmohawks like Varitek and Barajas, so I wanted to end this list with some exciting names.   But, um, there’s not that many exciting names to be had.  Thankfully, most of you are in 15 team leagues are smaller with one catcher, so you’ll never have to even get this low.  And that brings us to Jesus Effin’ Flores.  (I have no idea why, but I always want to give him the middle name “Effin’.”)  Anyhoo, J.E.F. had a stress fracture in his shoulder last year which killed him, then arthroscopic surgery on his elbow…  Well, it’s real late in the catchers, what do you want?  These guys are longshots.  And, yes, Ivan Rodriguez is blocking Flores a bit on playing time.  2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250

20. Ramon Hernandez – Trying to find an exciting 20th catcher to put on this list was torture.  Looked at John Baker — bleh.  Looked at the portmanteau of Jarlor Saltygarden — bleck.  Looked at Nick Hundley… Nick Hundley?!  Okay, let’s face it.  Young catchers usually disappoint.  So that left me with Ramon Hernandez.  Exciting, huh?  A healthy Ramon Hernandez could easily get the same numbers as Jorge Posada for half the price.  Now THAT’S exciting!!!  No, actually it still isn’t.  Oh, well.  2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265

After the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names, but this one stands out:

Carlos Santana – Here’s the deal broken down to you so simply that Larry The Cable Guy could understand.  Even if a rookie catcher or upside pick doesn’t produce, you lose him in the first month of the season for someone else.  Random schmohawk off of waivers will give you the same production as at least half of the catchers above.  As for Oye Como Va, he may not start the year in the majors, but if he does there’s upside there.  Check the 2010 fantasy baseball Carlos Santana post for further encouragement.  2010 Projections:  60/13/75/.280