Fantasy Baseball Advice

Recently, I had the pleasure of doing karaoke with Johnny Cueto.  He decided to go with Landslide by Fleetwood Mac.  Here’s what he sang, “I took my ERA and I took it down….  I climbed a mountain and I turned around…  And I saw my xFIP in the snow covered hills… Well, I’ve been afraid of changing… ‘Cause I’ve kicked the life out of Jason LaRue… Awh, take this ERA, and TAKE IT DOWN!…”  Then I joined him on stage for Islands in the Stream.  Cueto was pitch perfect with Stevie Nicks even if he did skip lines here and there to keep it related to fantasy baseball.  Right now, his ERA is 1.63.  Oh, c’mon.  Seriously, come on.  Come on, come on, come on Chameleon!  His xFIP is 3.52.  His K-rate is 6.23 which isn’t good and below previous season marks.  He’s leaving 83% men on and has a .216 BABIP.  There’s not one category he’s excelling in right now except ERA.  The mouth on the left side says, “S.” The mouth on the right side says, “ell.”  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jonathan Broxton – ‘So much junk, so much junk inside that trunk’ could be lyrics about the Dodgers bullpen or specifically about Broxton.

Mark Melancon – He doesn’t make the cut off of 50% owned in ESPN for this post, but that’s my own self-imposed rule, so screw you, homes!  Kidding.  (Or am I?!)  I’m listing Melancon because his ownership is actually going down.  Um, he’s the closer, what gives?

Chris Carter – I just went over my Chris Carter fantasy.  I wrote it while waiting for a studio light to fall on Carson Daly’s head.

Ty Wigginton – I just got a Lane Bryant spring collection catalog in the mail so that could only mean one thing… I accidentally got my neighbor’s mail.  Oh, and Ty Wigginton’s hitting.

Jeff Baker – While the Purple Evolutionist is off mending and writing in his journal about the dodo bird, Baker is seeing starts in his stead.  “Yo, get out of my stead!”  That was a farmer in the 1860′s.

Jemile Weeks – Just went over him this morning, shut all your porn windows and pay attention to Razzball!

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – This will be the last mention of Nishioka in a Buy column.  Won’t mean I like him more or less, but shizz is getting repetitive.

Chris Getz – Has stolen a decent amount of bases this season (12 — well, I did modify with ‘decent’), but he’s strictly a poor man’s everyman.

David Freese – Over the course of a full season, he’s capable of 20 homers and a solid average.  He won’t be playing a whole season. Don’t quibble, Random Italicized Voice.  But I’m hungry. That’s not what quibble means.  Riiiight. I’d grab Freese and expect some power and a good average.

Dayan Viciedo – I think we’re finally affecting change.  Last week I told you to pick up Viciedo and this week he’s gone up 0.1% in ownership at ESPN.  Woo-hoo!  Razzball, we’re the tenth-percenters!

Roger Bernadina – I told you to grab him about a month ago.  In that time, he’s been better than Victorino, Ethier, Beltran, Bautista (eat it!), Bossman Upton, Abreu, Ichiro, etc. etc. etc.  How is he owned in only 24% of ESPN leagues?  Oh, as we just learned, he’d only be owned in 23.9% of ESPN leagues without us.  Yay me!

Jason Bay – Haven’t been a big fan of his for years and I’m not suddenly flipping sides like Anakin.  I told you to grab him the other day after his 3-for-3, home run game.  Then he went back to old Bay without the delicious fish, meat or chicken seasoning.  If he’s available, I’d take a flyer that he might get hot.

Wily Mo Pena – Probably only a very short term add for power.  On the bright side, his strikeouts generate electricity.

Jonny Gomes – It’s Jonny cat!  Frisky!  I love this short term add for power, but you must be able to switch him in and out of your lineup when he’s not playing.

Desmond Jennings – I’m guessing he’s up in the next week to ten days.  If someone wants to Gillooly Fuld and Ruggiano, that time can be bumped up.

Jon Jay – Four score and one month ago, I told you Juan Hay would get value when Holliday went to the DL.  He did a’ight, but didn’t really shamwow my fantasy teams.  Well, he’s getting another opportunity with Pujols carrying the burden of one million fantasy teams ruined.

Jordan Schafer – The Braves announced that even with the return of McLousy, Schafer will be the starter.  Now when Prado returns something’s gotta give, old lady movie.  Until then, I’d grab Schafer for some speed.

Brandon Beachy – I’ve talked about him so much that he should be on everyone’s team that reads this site.  There’s really no excuse.  And that’s me just being real with you.

Cory Luebke – If he were on any other team, I’d tell you to hold, but in Petco very little can go wrong (damn, if that’s not a jinx I don’t know what is).

Carlos Carrasco – His name sounds like an upscale Mexican restaurant and he’s throwing some good stuff at the plate.  It’s a mashup of puns!  I’m like Girl Talk of fantasy baseball bloggers.  (If you don’t know Girl Talk, shame on you.  Download All Day.  Here’s your preemptive you’re welcome.)

Doug Fister – Fister?  But he hardly knew her!  Sorry, so hard to resist that.  He’s at a 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season.  Yeah, that’s better than that other schmohawk you own.  And him too.

SELL

Rick Porcello – Of course you should drop him.  I’m only listing him to make a point.  We get some comments in the Buy/Sell that there are so many more Buy’s than Sell’s.  Well, yeah, dur.  I’m not going to list 35 names of players to drop.  Plus, people have players that are injured and need short term replacements so that’s what the Buy does.  Gives you some names for fill-in’s.  Now back to the Sell…

Ryan Vogelsong – He’s up to about 97% owned which means there’s been some Johnny-come-lately’s who have gone to the waiver wire in your league to find Vogelsong gone.  After that, they’re like, “Damn, you so-and-so always get the hot waiver wire adds.”  At that point, you sell Vogelsong to them.

Michael Morse – Sorry, you knew it was coming though, right?  I mean, he hit .400+ in May and around .330 so far in June.  If he hit .270 the rest of the way, it wouldn’t completely surprise me.  He has 13 home runs now, he might hit ten the rest of the way.  That would give him around 25 homers and .280 for the whole season.  That’s great, wonderful, superlative.  Now I’m not trading him for a Bed, Bath and Beyond 20% off coupon, but I would explore options.

Stealing is like borrowing until it becomes permanent. I don’t steal; it’s immoral, reprehensible and I’m really out of shape so I’d probably get caught. The fact of the matter is that these guys aren’t for everyone.  They shouldn’t be, but they will give you the all coveted stat:  steals.  These players should only be considered if you are in need of steals after your draft, 12 teams or deeper.  In H2H leagues, these players are especially important if you’re trying beat an opponent and only need a few quick “pick me up” steals.

Chris Getz – Yeah, this list is not exciting.  This KC middle infielder is horrible. I have shown him love in 16-20 team leagues. With  Aviles’ iffy elbow, he may be only shining light not named Yuniesky.

Kaz Matsui - On the down side of career, was there ever an up? Still has legs, which may get you 18-22 steals. With an OPS of 625, which is what Pujols slugs.

Eugenio Velez – Needs to find a spot somewhere.  Maybe he sent a poison Edible Arrangement™ to Fred Lewis. 400 abs might give you 20 snatches. I like that word for SB’s.

Luis Castillo – I know what you’re saying, he is horrible, and you’re right.  Sorta. Can help with steals while not demolishing BA.

Cliff Pennington – Sounds like an insurance salesman. Has the gig at short for the ‘tics.  Prolly the best guy on this list so far as potential.

Coco Crisp – 450 ABs easy and a 10/20 season.  It ain’t glamorous, but these steal guys rarely are.

Michael Brantley – Could actually get drafted in a 12 team. I like this kid, reminds me of The Big FraGu last year.

Eric Young – May start season on bench or in AAA, which is the place for really, really bad drinkers. Awesome speed potential.  Barmes needs to fall down some stairs for him to have a shot.

Brendan Ryan – Seriously, Julio Lugo. Good potential for a MI spot league if you get a stud early. Could do worse, the Cliff Pennington of the NL.

Austin Jackson – May struggle early.  Given 400 abs could go 8/15, with a ton of runs leading off.

Will Venable – Quietly will hit 6th for the Friars.  Decent pop last year should carry over, who doesn’t like the son of a Max. 10/15 very attainable.

The other drafternoon I took part in my Fantasy Razzball draft where the object is to field the worst team possible.  This team isn’t just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  My co-conspirators in this were:

Chet G., Fantasy Football
Andy B., Yahoo! Roto Arcade
Tim W., Buccofans.com
T Man, Middle Aged Sports Guys
Jonathan H., The Hardball Times
Paul R., My Sports Rumors
Collin, FantasyPros911
Ryan D., Oh What, Another Baseball Blog
Andrew C., Yanks Go Yard

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Round 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  His K rate has been going up.  You want more?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  Could Joyce DeWitt’s son steal time?  I suppose, but Belliard’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

Round 2 – It was between Lousy Castillo and Drew Stubbs, who may not even break camp with the Reds he’s so godawful.  Stubbs’s projected 267 strikeouts this year had me throw caution into the wind and go with the upside pick.  Yes, in this league, your 2nd pick may not break camp with the club. It’s not easy being bad at your chosen vocation.  Ask any non-Greinke Royals pitcher.

Round 3 – Tommy Manzella, while renown for his lasagna, is not, how do I put this, good at baseball.  If there were a category on Jeopardy! titled, “Players You’d Confuse With Adam Everett,” Manzella would be the question for every answer.  Manzella’s projections:  450+ ABs, .240 average and 5 homers.  Now that’s Italian!

Round 4 – Actually, I really like Scott Podsednik this year in fantasy… Sorry, I meant to say, I really like Scott Podsednik’s wife.  Crucial detail.

Round 5 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Bannister.

Round 6 – Went with the Marquis de Shat here because we have a max innings limit and I really wanted to get a few pitchers that could actually stay in the rotation all year.  Figuring quality non-quality over quantity non-quality, if that makes sense.

Round 7 – A two home run hitter calling Petco home? Was surprised to see Sparky Anklebiter make it all the way to the 7th round.  Middle infield is a deep position in this, but I couldn’t turn down this kind of value.

Round 8 – Brett Gardner is the first pick that I could see definitely owning in regular leagues.  One of the few picks on this team with downside.  If he can avoid the top of the order, he should be fine.

Round 9 – Considering Michael Bourn went in the first round, Nyjer Morgan‘s a steal here.  Speaking of which, steals aren’t counted in this league, if anyone was not familiar with the points structure.  BTW, the nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

Round 10 – Tommy Hunter.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

Round 11 – Martin Prado isn’t a great pick at 2nd base… But he’s not playing there for me.  He is a solid guy for the Not Corner.

Round 12 – I expect Porcello’s ERA to mushroom. (<–almost pun!)

Round 13 – Scott Olsen — You know those Army commercials you see that promise college and all that?  I imagine in the next 15 years there will be commercials for kids who throw lefty.  Can’t afford college and you throw lefty?  Play in the Majors!

Round 14 – Daniel Murphy locked up my corner infidel spot.  Not bad value for a guy who received fielding tips from Keith Hernandez and hitting tips from Ron Darling.

Round 15 – Someone took Yorvit Torrealba in Round 14 and that reminded me I better grab his blahtoon mate, Nick Hundley.

Round 16 – In regular leagues, I wouldn’t want to fill my utility spot so early, but I knew I wanted a top tier catcher, so I grabbed Gregg Zaun, then immediately began thinking about how he really shouldn’t be playing in the major leagues anymore.  Someone hire him to coach, please.

Rounds 17/18 – Dave Bush and Brett Myers because Home Runs Allowed is a category.  Hopefully, Myers won’t disrupt my harmonious clubhouse.

Round 19 – Ladies and gentlemen, super futility man – Eugenio Velez.

Rounds 20/21/22 – Ronny Cedeno, Chris Getz and Jeff Keppinger.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.

Round 23 – Billy Buckner?  *shrugs*  I don’t know, but he’s supposed to be terrifically awful.

Round 24 – Garrett Mock – Mock indeed.

Round 25 – Grabbed Russell Martin to stash on my DL, though I’m sure at least one of my pitchers will end up on the Disgraceful List by May.

Round 26 – Every time you hear Willie Harris‘s name don’t you think of Michael Dukakis?  Yeah, maybe it’s me.

Round 27 – Jake Westbrook is actually the Indians number one pitcher.  Chief Wahoo should change his name to Chief WTF?

In roto, you can can’t gain ground in many categories in September, unless you’re already close.  The two categories you can conceivably gain ground in is in steals and saves — SAGNOF!  If you are up in power, or at least far enough that you can’t be caught by the team right behind you, then I’d stack up on guys that could get you some steals.  As for saves, you probably don’t have as many options on waivers.  But there’s a some guys that might get a save or two in the final few weeks, and, well, every save counts.  Anyway, here’s some guys that can provide steals and saves this week in fantasy baseball:

STEALS

Drew Stubbs – He has 5 homers and 3 steals in the majors in two weeks.  He had 3 homers and 46 steals in 5 months in Triple-A.  Maybe he sleeps with a 1996 Brady Anderson card under his pillow.

Michael Brantley -With Sizemore out with elbow surgery he probably could’ve had in May (but then the Indians would’ve lost 95 games instead of 90), Brantley’s seeing time.  He had 46 steals in Triple-A in 51 chances.

Everth Cabrera – EverCab’s linear notes tell us he has 21 steals in 80 games so far.

Angel Pagan – Pagan stole 52 bases one year in the low minors.  So he has the speed (his hitting chops are the issue).

Chris Getz – Four steals in the last six games.  He ain’t glamorous, but Angel Pagan is?

Brett Gardner – Could have some deep Al-Only value for speed.

Eugenio Velez – Velez is one of the few guys that when he’s standing in the batter’s box, you can read everything on the backstop.  This doode needs a serious convo with Davey Lopes.  “Velez, you’re 120 lbs.  How about you run once in a while?  Thank you.”

SAVES

Matt Lindstrom/Kiko Calero – Leo Nunez has looked blechtastic in his last few games.  Lindstrom hasn’t looked much better, but the Marlins need to win the rest of their games so they may try Lindstrom or even Calero.

Phil Hughes – With the Yankees coasting towards the playoffs, Hughes may see some late inning chances as the Yankees try to Dorian Gray Mariano.

Brett Myers – The Phillies may be waiting for Lidge to blow a seven run lead by giving up eight consecutive homers.  I guess what I’m saying is that Myers could be better than Lidge right now, but tell that to the Phils who have trotted Lidge out for the last five months.

Brandon Lyon – Because Fernando Rodney’s been taking anger management classes with Brett Myers.

Chris Perez – I think at some point in the last week or two the Indians will give Perez an opportunity to impress in the ninth.

Kevin Jepsen – File this away with Hughes’s potential saves.  As the Angels lock up the division, they could rest Fuentes.

J.P. Wheelerfourger – The Rays bullpen is in tatters… Shattered.  Key syllable is shat.  Shoot, Price could figure into this closer picture if Howell continues to botch the job. (I love the word botch and I really don’t use it enough.  Maybe that’ll be my 2010 resolution.)

Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – It’s been so long since the Jays got a save, I’m honestly not even sure who their closer is.

Angel Guzman – Really no reason why Marmol loses the job… Right now.  Member he’s been prone to blow-ups in the past.  I kinda just want Guzman to take over so I can hear what song he uses for his entrance music.  Shaggy?  Aerosmith? Real Life?  Whatever it is, it’s sure to be lame.

As Stephen Drew tried to take that step forward in 2009 that fantasy baseball owners craved, he hurt his hamstring.  Wonder what a Drew family vacation is like… “J.D., you wanna go see the world’s largest bottle cap?  It’s supposedly 17 inches in circumference!” “Sure, I’ll go tell Mom and Pop.”  On the way to the Sequoia, two hamstring pulls, a fractured hip and the Mom needs Tommy John surgery.  Pretty sure no one’s giving them joint family coverage.  The MDs in AZ say Drew’s injury shouldn’t knock him out longer than the 15 days.  When you consider he hadn’t even started to hit yet, looks like Drew’ll begin his season mid-May.  All in all, this is a decent buy low guy right now.  If you can trade some spare parts for him (closer-du-jour, extra OF, etc.), he should prove worth stashing.  He’s still talented and he can have a solid three-quarters of a season.  Hopefully, he spent the first quarter on someone else’s team.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – Earliest return date is late-May.  Still a long season so you can’t really sell him short, but with the trouble coming in his right shoulder, I’d be worried this doesn’t become a worst situation before it gets better.

Brian McCann – Headed for Lasik with eye problems.  Maybe he said fudge and Cox made him suck on some soap.  David Ross is filling in for him on the Braves and he hit a HR yesterday.  Ross actually isn’t an awful replacement for fantasy owners either.  You might get some pop and his killer average shouldn’t hurt for only two weeks.  It matters how deep your league is, but I’d also look at Salty, Hundley, Shoppach and Laird, in that order.

Chris Getz – Headed to the DL.  I know what you’re thinking, Gordon Beckham gets his chance!  Yeah, but what matters is what Ozzie Guillen’s thinking.  Ozzie’s thinking Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix.  I know what you’re thinking now, what’s Ozzie thinking?!

Jake Peavy – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know this is no in-depth observation, but he just doesn’t look right.  This is very sad for me.  He’s given up way too many home runs and walks.  I wouldn’t sell him short because he can go on a ten game run where he’s unhittable… Or at least I hope he does.

Justin Upton – HRs in back-to-back games in between numerous flailings at breaking pitches (Jaboo strikes again).  At this point, he should just change his last name to Upside.  Because that’s both his allure and the reason he’s overvalued in every non-keeper league.

Mark Reynolds – 5th homer yesterday.  Guess who else hit his 5th homer yesterday?  Davis.  We got ourselves a hot one, America!

Conor Jackson – 2-for-6.  Got the game winning hit yesterday, which means poopie-squat for fantasy, but it might be the confidence builder he needs.

Cameron Maybin – 0-for-5, batting .189 on the season.   Sleeper pick went comatose the first month of the season.  I’m ready to pull the plug in 12 team leagues.  Potential replacements are Spillborghs, Kubel, Cody Ross, Teahen or Juan Rivera, obviously depends on what is out there.

Clayton Kershaw – 4 2/3, 9 ER.  Walk, tried to get ahead of a hitter resulting in a home run… Rinse and repeat.  From an absolute gem against the Giants where he K’d 13 to back-to-back beatings. He’s too good/erratic to bench.  If you bench him, you’ll miss a gem.

Adam LaRoche – 2 HRs, bringing his season total to 5.  Guess all it took was being on the same team as his little brother, Andy.  (Why haven’t the Yanks signed Mark Teixeira’s little brother to get him off his typical slow start?   Like Cody Ransom or Angel Berroa are better?)  Maybe now he’s a 2nd half of April hitter.  His upside still seems like Jorge Cantu… And his downside too.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 7-for-13 this weekend.  As I said last week, I was giving him one more week.  This was the kind of weekend I was looking for.  He’s earned a bit longer leash.

Kenshin Kawakami – It’s 4 starts now and the control (11 BB in 21.2 IP) + gopheritis (5 in 4 games) has us thinking Atlanta signed some 1/2 price sushi.  The K’s are intriguing but he has to be downgraded to matchup starter vs. start every game.

Manny Parra – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Hey, I’m a fan, but frankly this could’ve been a five earned game just as easily.

Jose Valverde – Got the save but was noticeably limping.  Cuddle Boy, Hawkins should be held for now.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 7 ER.  The A’s whooped that trick.

B.J. Upton – 0-for-4, .156 on the season.  While J. Up is all upside, B. Up is not this bad.

Justin Masterson – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Keeping walks down and Ks up.  Hopefully, Dice-K doesn’t take the bullet train back.

Pablo Sandoval - 4-for-4, HR, now batting .292.  Hope everyone held out hope where he was eligible at catcher.  He’s stocky (read: fat) but doesn’t have that much power.  My preseason projections gave him 14 homers and a .300 average.  Still sounds about right.

Jered Weaver – 7 shutout innings leaves him at 2-1 with good ERA, WHIP, solid K rate (almost 8 per 9 IP) and, most importantly, he’s not another Angel pitcher with a broken wing.  Only owned in 87% of ESPN leagues.  Seems to be underrated – maybe because of his brother?

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  No weepstakes here so far.  Very impressive start against the Mets.  He won’t obviously stay below a 3 ERA, but while teams try to figure him out, he could coast to a solid 1st half.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER. Looks like someone let my Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell get in their head.

Joakim Soria & Brandon Morrow – Both have sore shoulders that – for now – are just day-to-day.  (Soria + Morrow = Sorrow?)  Morrow seems ready to go for next game where Soria might be due back middle of next week.  Might be worth playing Aardsma and Juan Cruz in deep leagues or if you need saves.

Derrek Lee – Removed because of neck spasms.  When you’re batting .197, you’re snapping your neck from the pitcher to the catcher a lot.

Ross Ohlendorf – Outdueled Peavy to go to 2-2 with a 3.24 ERA.  We really want to root for a guy with such a fun last name to say but his crazy low K rate (10 K in 25 IP) hints at a pitcher who’ll get flogged sooner vs. later and often vs. seldom.

Aaron Laffey – Won his 2nd game this week since being called up from the minors.  He’s far from a K guy but he is throwing a lot of ground balls right now.  Consider him for spot starts but he’s more likely to earn a full-time spot this year on a Razzball staff right now vs. a real fantasy baseball staff (real fantasy baseball staff – is that an oxymoron?)

Armando Galarraga – Now at 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA.  Guess the fact we named him #1 most risky pitcher motivated him or something.  He’s K-ing nearly a guy an inning which is above last years 6.35/9 IP rate.  We haven’t flipped positions on him just yet but getting there.

Shawn Hill – To the 15-day DL.  Hmm… maybe he’s part Drew?

Chris Ray – Sherrill won’t see saves in back-to-back games according to the O’s.  Then again, according to the O’s they have a major league pitching staff.

Adam Jones – 3-for-4, HR and 1st steal of the year.  The steals will come and the power will continue.  He’s not a sell candidate, unless you’re against Prop 420.