Fantasy Baseball Advice

When doctors said Aaron Harang is going to have a useless part of his body removed, everyone in the Reds clubhouse thought the same thing, “What is Willy Taveras doing in Harang’s body?”  If Dusty were a doctor, he would left Harang’s appendix in a few more innings.  The appendectomy will force Harang to the DL for the rest of the season.  Too bad, the Reds just traded for Rolen and things were really starting to come together.  Feel free to cut Harang.  He’s done-zo.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Dickerson – Headed to the DL with a whatever-you-don’t-care.  What you do care about, the Reds might call up Chris Heisey.  He’ll be talked about in the afternoon post where I break down the potential September call-ups.

Adam Jones – He hurt his back while swinging the bat.  He’s been terrible so far in August and now it sounds like he’ll be missing a few games at least.  Cue an awkward dancing Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner and Danny Devito and turn on the Billy Ocean…

Scott Downs – Returns from the DL on Monday.  Will he be the closer?  Here’s what Gaston said, “I’m not sure about closing. I’m not sure about that. We’ll see how it goes. If he got here tomorrow and I said we’re going to stick him in the closer’s spot right away, I’m not sure if that’s fair to him either.”  That is both wishy and washy.

Mark Reynolds – DNP with a 100-degree temperature.  Get well soon, Mini Donkey!

Carlos Gonzalez – Out for up to a week after he cut his hand while cutting a piece of steak.  Can’t they get Spilborghs to cut up his meat for him?  After Barmes’s vension accident a few years ago, maybe the Rockies should go vegetarian during the summer months.  Or only use chopsticks.  Crab rangoon is delicious!

Seth Smith – With CarGo’s inability to handle a knife, Smith might see some short term time.  He also has 2 homers in the last three games.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  If you owned only Rockie pitchers, you’d probably be doing better than you are in your leagues.  Zoinks!

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  He’s actually had a full month of decent starts.  Not great, decent.  Check your modifiers, Razzball reader.

Jhonny Peralta – HR yesterday as he bats near .400 over the last week.  Let me pull out my lukewarm endorsement…. If you really need an MI, what the hey?

Matt Diaz – 4-for-4 yesterday.  It’s Dye-as.  Usually only hits lefties, currently hitting everyone.

Pedro Martinez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 Ks.  I swear, I keep thinking to myself he’s going 5 IP, 3 ER or 6 IP, 4 ER.  I’m like the quiet psychic.  This Fall on Fox, turn up the volume and watch as he solves mysteries while speaking just above a whisper… Robert Carlyle is The Quiet Psychic.

Angel Pagan – 2 HRs yesterday.  See, there is a reason he was nominated for the Henry Aaron Award!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  You gotta love when your third outfielder pans out.  I know the feeling, I own Raul Ibanez on a few teams. (Though he’s been cold lately.)  Third outfielders panning out make me horny!  *Awkward silence at Razzball.com*  Did Grey just say third outfielders… Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Ricky Nolasco – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners.  Here’s the deal, Nolasco.  And I’m gonna break it down to you real simple like Jeff Foxworthy.  One terrible game like the stinker vs. the Astros when you gave up 10 earned runs in just over three innings.  That’s forgivable because you came back and pitched a complete game the next game.  But when you follow that up with another stinker, you become unpredictable and harder to start.  Thanks for listening, Nolasco.  I’m glad we had this talk.

Alcides Escobar – Hit his first homer yesterday.  After he crossed home, I screamed at the TV, “I have guys to hit homers.  Steal a frickin’ base, doode!”

Adam Dunn – Hit his 33rd homer yesterday.  If he doesn’t get to 40, Stephen Hawking will press a button on his Speak & Spell and blow up the Earth.  Just so you know what we’re up against.

Drew Stubbs – He looks so lost at the plate, it’s kinda comical.  Still has speed, will have bumps.

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I’m glad he pitched a good game… Actually, I don’t care.  What am I, his hypenate nephew-slash-personal assistant?  No, I’m not.  He gets the Dodgers next.  Blech.

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  Easily his best start of the year.  I still can’t get fully behind starting him, but if you need to take some risk, then go for it.

Bud Norris – 1 IP, 6 ER as he roofied his owners.  When thinking about starting a rookie, see Example A:  Norris’s line.

Jake Fox – 4-for-4, HR yesterday.  Can an AL team trade for him this winter?  Please.  I’d like to own him in the fantasy, but non-Biblical way.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 4 baserunners, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  Right side of the brain, Dempster beat the NL-best Dodgers yesterday.  Left side of the brain, Dempster lost to the Padres last time out.  So his next start vs. the Mets is a good thing or a bad thing?  Damn conflicting sides of the brain!

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners and 9 Ks vs. Padres.  If only the Red Sox played in Petco…  Smoltz gets the Nats next time out.  I’d roll the dice for another start, then reevaluate.

Jack Cust – 2 HRs yesterday.  Cust is hitting near .500 in the last week with three homers.  Few hitters get as streaky as Cust (though A-Rod comes close right after he gets out of the salon and has his frosted tips done).

Oh, they’re not just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On this drafternoon, I picked a team that is near-perfectly awful.  They simultaneously suck and blow.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  I took part in a fantasy baseball draft this past Saturday to pick the worst fantasy baseball team.  And I think I done did it.  My co-conspirators in this were:

Roto Rob
Tirico Suave
Drunk Jays Fans
Fantasy Baseball Cafe
Fantasy Pros 911
Hire Jim Essian
Sharapova’s Thigh
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Beyond the Box Score

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Random thoughts about various rounds of the draft:

ROUND 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  Okay, he’s on the Nats.  Should I go on?  His K rate has been going up.  More?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  All right, one more thing.  He’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

ROUND 2 – It was between Chone Fuggums and Lousy Castillo.  Had to go with the more shallow position of 3rd base.  Fuggums will probably get 500 ABs, and, I don’t know, 4 HRs.  Not a bad guy for the Not Corner.

ROUND 3 – And Lousy Castillo makes it back to me.  Projected for 487 ABs and… Wait for it… Here it comes… Hold on, I have an itch… All right, here it is… Zero home runs!  WTF?  How is that even possible?

ROUND 4 – Okay, I’ve waited on crappy outfielders long enough.  Skip Suckmaker, you’re mine!  Thank you, LaRussa.

ROUND 5 – I’m actually worried about my Runs at this point.  No, I didn’t just drink some Mexican water.  So to clog up my tailpipe, I select Erick Aybar.  He’s projected for less than 50 Runs and over 400 ABs.  Later I will add his Brother in Razzball Charms.

ROUND 6 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Schneider.

ROUND 7 – And because no one knows when anyone is drafting a player, you (or at least I) want to fill up your (my) Utility spot with another catcher that I know will rack up the ABs and little else — Yadier Molina.

ROUND 8 – Super futility man, Willie Aybar.

ROUND 9 – Finally, I take a pitcher.  Not just any pitcher, but a pitcher worthy of a Razzball Spotlight, Gorilla Ponson.

ROUND 10 – B. Giles because anyone who’s ever played any level of baseball can put up his stats.

ROUND 11 – Travis Ishikawa.  Everyone loses a job on your fantasy Razzball team, so backups are very helpful and Giants hitters are even more so.  Worst case scenario, Ishikawa and Belliard will make a nice blahtoon.

ROUND 12 – Vicente Padilla, probably my riskiest pick so far.  He can’t make it out of May with a job, can he?

ROUND 13 – Endy Chavez.  Nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

ROUND  14 – DeWayne Wise. Ozzie’s crazy enough to give him 500 ABs, but he’s not crazy enough to lead him off, is he?

ROUND 15 – Having played this league last year, I knew anyone I took on the pitching side would lose their job sooner than later if I was playing right.  With his 150th pick, Grey selects Danys Baez, a leading candidate for an Orioles rotation spot.  You heard me right, non-Orioles fans.  Baez might be an Orioles starter this year.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

ROUND 16 – Mark Buerhle.  Tried to balance all of the starters I was going to lose with a guy who can give me 200 lame innings.  There’s a chance I bench him until he gets cold.

ROUND 17 – Matt Harrison.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

ROUND 18 – Jamie Moyer.  Another innings eater-slash-guy you can’t believe is still a major league starter.

ROUND 19/20 – Chris Dickerson and Gerald Laird.   Dickerson’s a K machine, but he’s the only guy on my entire team with any downside.  I’ll be honest.  I might be patroling the waiver wire for a Dickerson replacement.  As for Laird, it’s really hard to resist taking an extra catcher.  They’re all so good!

ROUND 23/24 – Jesse Litsch and Mike Pelfrey.  Some of you may be sad to see these guys here because you have them on your regular fantasy teams.  Let’s just say, I’m hoping these guys stay healthy because they could be in for an awfully wonderful year.

ROUND 25/26/27 – Kevin Frandsen and Cristian Guzman and Gabe Gross.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.  Razztastic!

All of these rookies are worth grabbing at the right spot, but I wouldn’t reach for any of them.  Sorry if that sounds boring, but sometimes Grey needs to instill some right-wing fantasy baseball conservatism into the equation.  Longoria, Soto, Tulowitzki, Braun, Michael J. Fox in the first year of Family Ties, etc. panned out.  But for every time you scored with rookie nookie, there was a time when you struckout, Adam Jones, Johnny Cueto, Fukudome, Towles, Hughes, Parra, Justin Upton, Brian Bonsall, etc.  If you click on the links on the players below, you’ll see I covered all of these rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball back in November/December.   (These fantasy sleeper, rookie doodes are in no particular order.  Well… Technically, I did wrote them down in an order so they are in some order…)  Anyway, here’s some rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball:

David Price – I think he hits 150 innings and makes a huge difference for the teams who own him.  I’d pursue him like a third or fourth fantasy starter.

Matt Wieters – He’s been discussed ad nauseum since I discussed him way back in November.  I won’t have him in any league.

Cameron Maybin – I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s a top 30 outfielder at the end of the year.  That’s a hunch more than anything.   What, I can’t have crushes?

Colby Rasmus – I like him in NL-Only leagues if he leaves spring training with a gig.

Travis Snider – Cheap source of 20 homer power.

Elvis Andrus – Liked him a whole lot more before Omar “I Will One Day Die At The Hands Of Jose Mesa” Vizquel joined the team.

Andrew McCutchen – Keep your eye on him in NL-Only keepers.  He might be a doughy bagel as soon as 2010.

Carlos Carrasco – I like him more than most, but he needs an injury to someone else to see some RT (that’s Rotation Time.  Acronyms don’t work as well when I have to explain them.)

Brett Gardner – I loved him back in November.  Now I’m a bit lukewarm.  If he can find legitimate PT, he swipes 30 bags.  Two things are going in his favor 1) Melky’s his main competition.  2)  See Number One.

Kenshin Kawakami - Two parts Kuroda, one part Hideki Irabu.

Jason Heyward – Keep Heyward in mind in NL-Only keeper leagues.  He’s my early frontrunner for NL ROY for 2010.

Chris Dickerson – Dusty Baker is talking of playing veterans.  Oh, Dusty.  You card!

Mat Gamel -  If he leaves camp with a full-time gig, he will be worth owning in mixed leagues.

Taylor Teagarden – I’d like him more if the Rangers didn’t have Saltymochachino in front of him.  Yet, I still like him.  I like Salty too.  To quote your Mom’s favorite movie title, “Something’s Gotta Give.”

James McDonald – If McDonald gets the fifth starter job in The Los Angeles City of Los Angeles (<–required by Anaheim law), he could be a great NL-Only sleeper.  James McDonald is a fantasy sleeper?! That’ll be a big seller in Google searches.

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui – Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw – 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson – Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis – About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier – 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena – HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora – 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks – Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios – 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt – Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington – Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis – Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind – HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones – Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss – Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler – Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”