Fantasy Baseball Advice

First off, let me just state this post could be jumping the gun.  Hell, I might be winning the 10K marathon because I started the week before everyone else did (which would explain why I had time for so much beer as I went).  I know that, I own that.  Now that we’ve clarified I’m trying to show the skill of clairvoyance, let’s review. 

Chipper Jones has already announced he’ll retire after the end of the 2012 season and he just went on the DL to start the year due to…well whatever is ailing Chipper.  Seriously, the dude hurt himself putting on a sock at one point in his career.  A SOCK for all those who can only read capital letters.  Though they could’ve put Martin Prado at 3rd to temporarily hold the spot, the Braves trade for a seldom used free swinger from Cincinatti named Juan Francisco.  So the guy who should get the majority of starts at 3rd if and when Glass Chipper gets injured – which happens every other day – is currently less than 1% owned in yahoo, ESPN, and Fleaflicker leagues?  While it’s true Jones will eventually come back and play 3rd again, in deeper leagues you have to ask yourself some important questions: ‘How long will Chipper play at age 40′, ‘will he play well if he comes back’, ‘if Juan plays well, does it delay Chipper’s return and does he come back at all at that point’ and ‘where are the question marks, I thought these were questions!!!’?  It’s true, the trade for Francisco was due to the ’In case of  Glass Chipper break, emergency’ sign above Jone’s locker but it’s clear the Braves don’t want Prado at 3rd in the future full time with this trade.  Since 2004, Jones has averaged 122.75 games a season with his highest total coming in 2009 at 143.  Chipper has always been a gamer but he’s never been confused with the Iron Man (though he has been confusing blue collar fans everywhere with his Larry the Cable Guy impersonation).  The Braves will need a replacement after this season and what better way to do it then to work with the possible future one this year?

Note Juan is not without his faults.  He has an atrocious walk rate, a high strike out rate and – though the sample is small – has not hit lefties well in his MLB career (in 26 ABs, he’s hit .192).  The Braves did not start him during opening day as the Mets were running a lefty – Johan Santana - out on the mound.  Now after all that, let’s look at the positives.  He should go against righties and has hit – again, small sample size – .301 for his career vs them.  He’ll also hit for power when he hits the ball, having a career .450 slugging percentage.  No, we’re not talking about a guy you are dropping Ian Stewart or Chris Davis for him, though by skill set Davis is a good comparison point.  He is a guy you need to watch for most leagues but is a pickup for deep leagues that need 3B depth or NL Only leagues.  He’s a bat that could take off if given an opportunity.

I almost didn’t write this post because I don’t think you should be looking for sleeper 1st basemen.  It’s a no-no that makes my no-no area shrink.  Then I got to thinking and then I started watching Chopped, then I took a nap, then I had a snack, then I remembered I was writing a post about sleeper 1st basemen, but forgot why I didn’t want to write the post in the first place so I wrote it.  Now, you should not target these guys for your 1st base slot, but you could fill your corner infidel or Utility slot with one of these guys.  But, whatever you do, don’t punt 1st base.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball. These are 1st basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  These are guys that are currently being drafted after the top 200.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into the post, we have a big announcement about the RCLs.  Okay, maybe not that big.  But kinda big.  No, we didn’t sell out to Kotex and will now be bringing you all the latest and greatest Kotex news.  Though I do hear Kotex makes a great product!  What, you like to be wet?  No, this isn’t about our podcast that will be arriving shortly.  (Our theme song is bizzonkers, seriously.  Like seriously, seriously.)  Our announcement is Rudy and I and a group of fantasy baseball ‘perts will be taking part in this year’s Razzball Commenter League (The RCL).  Funston — check!  Behrens — check!  Pianowski — yeah, we got more than just Yahoo bloggers.  Also, in the league are Eric Mack from SI.com, Dalton Del Don from Rotowire, Eno Sarris from Fangraphs, Brad Evans (okay, so we got a bunch of Yahoo guys), Tim Dierkes from MLB Trade Rumors and many, many more (well, maybe two more).

For what it’s Wuertz, we asked everyone at ESPN (whose email we had, which is quite a few) to participate but they all said no.  If you want to take to the streets and ‘occupy’ them, go bug the crap out of Matthew Berry on Twitter telling him to take part.  Mention how we’re sending them 40-plus leagues to ESPN that will all be going to Yahoo next year if they don’t pony up one ‘pert.

So, yes, you will be competing against the likes of us, and them and the other them that were already playing in The RCL.  If Rudy or I by some chance in H-E double hockey sticks were to win the whole thing, we’ll give the prize — A MEMBER’S ONLY JACKET! — to the runner up.  But if, say, Funston wins the jacket, I think he wants it.  Anyway, time is of the essence, if you want to compete against us, them and the other thems.  Sign up here.  Not in this post.

Mike Carp – You may ask yourself where is that upside 1st baseman?  And you may ask yourself where is the 30 homer potential?  And you may find yourself drafting Mike Carp.  And you may tell yourself this is not my beautiful 1st baseman, 30-homer upside potential!  And the days go by, wishing for more home runs.

Brandon Belt – I have Belt down for some astronomic projections.  Brandon Belt is my Chris Davis and I am his Bill James.  My projections buckle if Belt doesn’t get enough play. (I think that’s a pun point!)

Chris Davis – Speaking of the devil, I don’t have Chris Davis listed anywhere in my projections because I think he’ll probably cause more damage with his K-rate than he’s worth.  You know who has him projected for 20 homers and a .265 average?  Oh, c’mon, you don’t even have to ask.  Bill James’s sun rises and falls on his love for Chris Davis.  If Davis can get 450 ABs, he could hit 25 homers and .240.  To get 450 ABs, a lot would have to break right for him and he’d actually have to produce to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso – Yonder’s upside is Gaby Sanchez.  That’s not me giving him a compliment.  If he gives you that, then he’ll be a valuable late round flyer in NL-Only leagues while fluctuating between serviceable and yawnstipating in mixed leagues.

Bryan LaHair – He sounds like a wrestling jobber, and it’s not far off from his current value as a major leaguer either.  He’s a placeholder for Anthony Rizzo.  His best chance for fantasy value is having one Baha Man season before disappearing into oblivion.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones didn’t make it in my top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If we were an NL-Only site, I’d talk about the beauty of The Robot.  But since I brought it up, what the hey!  If you’re in a deep daily league, you take someone like Jones, who does damage against righties and platoon him in and out of your lineup.  Last year, in 355 ABs vs. righties, he hit 14 homers, .262 with 5 steals while against lefties he had only 2 homers and hit .147.  Garrett Jones is the new Matt Diaz!

Lucas Duda – What’s the highest tone your voice can reach?  It should crack your voice a little Peter Brady-style you’re going so high.  Okay, now take that highest tone and say, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now say it again and again until when asked any question by anyone you reply, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now you’re crazy.  Sorry, but it shouldn’t have been that easy to make you crazy.  Duda has next to no speed, but might have an outside chance for 25 homers.  Don’t find yourself in September looking at him, mumbling to yourself shoulda coulda Duda.

‘How could anything get past Grey Albright!’  you say in an incredulous tone.  It’s true, it is very hard to sneak out from under Grey’s all-seeing ways.  He is the fantasy baseball equivalent of the Eye of Sauron, though slightly less malicious.  But we here at Deep League Thoughts (like how I tied my previous title into it’s own thinktank like it’s not just one lunatic behind these posts?  Genius.  Sheer, evil genius.) believe that sometimes all a guy needs is a chance for 500 ABs and  Wilson Betemit could be an example of that.

Yes, I know, you just threw up in your mouth a little seeing Betemit as the title of this post.  It’s ok, go rinse your mouth out, have a few saltine crackers and drink some 7-Up to calm your stomach.  Feeling better?  Now Mr. Wilson was supposed to be the next big thing at SS for the Braves in 1996, back when both he and I were pimply-faced teenagers.  Now as a pimply-faced adult, I look back at Betemit’s career to see what went so wrong and truthfully it’s not easy to tell.  His skill set is the same now as it was back then.  He’s bad at defense, can’t hit lefties and strikes out a lot.  He seemed relegated to the role of futility player no matter where he went.  But over the last couple of years, Wilson has been able to put together quite a few at-bats, amassing 674 ABs between the Royals and the Tigers.  Over that span, he’s managed to hit 21 HRs and 89 RBIs all while being a part-timer.  Looking all the way back to the one season – 2006 between two teams – where he garnered at least 400 at-bats, he had 18 HRs with a palatable .263 batting average and a .469 SLG%.  Now he’s in Baltimore, a place where strike-out artisans such as Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis have come to fan.  ‘But wait’ you say, ‘don’t those two play Betemit’s two main positions now at 1st and 3rd?’.  Very astute of you.  But you know what other role Betemit can play?  Designated Hitter.

Yes, at the moment, there is not any clear DH seemingly available to Baltimore right now.  Maybe Nick Markakis takes that role for a bit when he returns, but their OF is thin.  I have a hard time seeing that happening for long if at all.  Let’s not forget Chris Davis is being given a chance at 1st and has proven nothing.  If he doesn’t pan out, Reynolds can move to first and they can put Betemit back at 3rd.  I’m not one to make bold predictions but if Baltimore’s lineup shakes out the way it is seeming like it could, I don’t see why Betemit isn’t somewhere in the 4~6 spot of that order, getting 450 ABs and hitting 20 HRs while driving in 80 RBI with a .260 average.  Don’t like that?  Well, go draft Martin Prado then while I hurl.  Now hand me those saltines, please.

My dinner with Andre is over as Andre Ethier has called it kaput on his season.  It wasn’t from a lack of trying, I’ll tell ya that.  “Hey, I just want to say how much it means to me to try to help this team win even though I shouldn’t be playing.  This is my job, and I take my job very seriously, even if means I may never walk again because I’m playing when I shouldn’t be.  I will not sit, no matter what!  Unless someone asks me to sit because they realize I shouldn’t be playing.”  Andre encapsulates today’s athlete perfectly.  Team first, as long the player is okay putting team first.  For whatever reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ethier overdrafted again next year.  People just can’t get enough of his 20 homer, no steal fantasy value.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 4-for-5 with his 17th steal.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Seems like a no-brainer, which is my specialty.

Juan Rivera – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs.  He now has 32 RBIs in 45 games with the Dodgers.  Note to self:  Use Juan Rivera at a later date to show how arbitrary RBIs are.

Chad Billingsley – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If he was a dangling Chad on your team, punch him out.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-5 with his 12th homer.  After the game, he had vodka with coffee liqueur while arguing with Mark Reynolds about who was the best cosmonaut.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4.  This comes after an 0-for-10 stretch with 7 Ks.  He reminds me a bit of me at this bar the other night.  There was a point when I actually said the line, “What’s your man got to do with me?”  They don’t call me the Fantasy Master Lothario — or FML — for nothing.

Eric Chavez – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs.  When Chavez goes up to bat, the song that plays is “I Suck, Sucker,” which I wrote and sang for him.

Craig Schwinden – 5 IP, 5 ER.  In the first row at Metco was Kim Basinger, she’s a total Babraham Lincoln… Schwinden!

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with a grand slam in the first game of the doubleheader; 1-for-2 with a steal in the 2nd.  He now has three homers in the last week.  This will help the Mets, who are preparing a video of his week’s exploits with Joe Esposito’s You’re the Best playing in the background, which they will ship around to perspective trade partners in the offseason.

Mike Minor – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks and the conshellation prize.  Damn, really could used a 6 IP, 0 ER start from him, and, as always, this is all about me.

Julio Teheran – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s gonna be good, but this was no indication of that.  The Mets and Braves both looked like they just got done playing a previous game, which they did.

Brent Morel – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  You fancy mushroom!

Brent Lillibridge – Sticking with the Brent theme, Lillibridge was hit by a pitch that broke his hand.  He should’ve aqueduct’d.

Ian Kennedy – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, improving his record to 19-4.  Joe Kennedy would’ve been proud, then bought him an election.

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  He’s still struggling to maintain a decent average with all the Ks, but he has two homers in the last week.

Rickie Weeks – The Brewers activated Weeks from the 15-day DL that he was on for over a month.  15-day DL, “You exploit my generosity!”

Andrew Miller – 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I wonder who’s gonna be bumped from the Sawx rotation for the playoffs.  I mean, I have an idea.  Be weird if it’s Miller after Francona earlier in the year said, “Obviously, [Miller] is a huge part of our organization, and it’s going to stay that way.  He’s not going anywhere.”  Maybe he’ll say he was putting air quotes around his statement.

Colby Rasmus – Took live batting practice and should be good to go by early next week.  I’ve marked my I Couldn’t Care Less calendar.  We now wait.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4 with a homer.  I got a letter recently from one of our incarcerated readers, it went like this, “I don’t think you’ve given enough attention to Encarnacion.  He’s hitting the cover off the ball just as well as anyone else in the major leagues or the penal circuit.  By the way, you puta?  Yours, Boo-Boo.”

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 22nd homer yesterday.  A catcher with power and a low average?  Oh, he’s definitely gonna be on multiple teams of mine next year.  That’s right, I’m thinking about my 2012 draft already.  Sleep on me, that pillow is where your head’ll lie.  Permanently, snitch, it’s beddy-bye, Eminem.

Ricky Romero – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Could I make R.R. Cool Jay (see resemblance to the rapper (actor?)) a starter on some of my mixed teams in 2012?  I’m contemplating it.  AL East be damned!

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was good in this game, until he wasn’t.  Snap in the inverted W formation!

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Season ERA is 2.60 and WHIP is 0.95.  Phillies are gonna be tough to beat in the playoffs.  Cust kayin’.

Chase Utley – Will sit out this weekend with what is being deemed a mild concussion.  I got one thing to relay about mild concussions… Justin Morneau called and said, “How come I’m wearing my mittens on my feet?”

Charlie Manuel confirmed Cole Hamels would have his next start skipped after an MRI showed he had shoulder inflammation.  But Manuel was wearing a wooden barrel being held up by suspenders so it made it difficult to pay attention to what he was saying.  Manuel then said, “When I ask for a straw, I don’t want a drinking straw.  Drinking straws are for 13-year-old girls!”  You know what would’ve been nice?  If Hamels settled all this MRI shizz before I had to set my weekly fantasy lineup.  Yes, this is all about me.  Here’s hoping Hamels only needs to miss one start and then can come back at full strength.  Though for a club that can afford to rest him and coast into the playoffs, it seems like a pipe dream.  But what about my H2H playoffs?!  Have I mentioned recently how much I hate H2H?  You got your marbles on the line and teams are resting their best marbles for the playoffs.  Marbles!  BTW, no one knows what that means, but it’s provocative.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 14 Ks.  From Rudy, “My DVR still has The Golden Girls from when my parents visited.  Oh, Estelle Getty, your delivery is prettier than Roy Halladay’s.”

Casper Wells – Has now homered in four straight games.  Casper was one of those cases where I saw him hit a homer and disregarded it, figuring he wouldn’t hit another one immediately.  Then disregarded the 2nd and 3rd homers too.   After four in a row, it’s hard to disregard.  He’s really not this good, I promise you.  But, and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but, he’s hitting the cover off the ball so you may as well grab him to see how long it can continue.

A.J. Pierzynski – To the DL.  He fractured his wrist trying to write his last name in cursive.

Hanley Ramirez – Won’t return when eligible.  If grit and doggedness were pistachios and cashews, Hanley would be allergic to nuts.

Jason Kipnis – Out for three straight days with a right oblique injury.  Why whenever I write Kipnis, I feel like a nosh?

Ubaldo Jimenez – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Maybe the Indians might want to raise the mound up a mile above sea level.

Pedro Alvarez – Optioned to Triple-A.  Pirates told him to come back when he can hit like that Brandon Wood fella.

Carlos Beltran – To the DL.  Mets doctors, “See, it wasn’t us!”

Jonathan Sanchez – To the DL.  He was seen on crutches yesterday after hurting his ankle.  For the first time, Sanchez can’t pitch because he can’t walk, usually it’s he can’t pitch because he can walk.

Chris Davis – Season’s over with a shoulder tear.  Obviously not easy to shoulder Bill James’s expectations.

Paul Goldschmidt – Has 19 Ks in 42 ABs.  He’s like Mark Reynolds 2.0.  Mark-Paul Reynoldschmidt who, unlike Mark-Paul Gosselaar, strikes out a lot.

Josh Collmenter – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Let’s look at his last ten starts.  He was beat badly by the Giants (5 IP, 5 ER), Oakland (4 2/3 IP, 5 ER) and the Dodgers twice (6 IP, 11 ER).  All these teams combined have one decent hitter (Kemp).  Then against the Phils, Brewers and Rockies (27 2/3 IP, 5 ER).  Collmenter should be starting the next All-Star game.

Mike Morse – 2-for-4, and his 21st homer.  His season slash line is .323/.372/.566.  Or maybe that’s his dot dot slash line.

Ryan Zimmerman – 1-for-4 with his 7th homer and 9th error.  The Mat Gamel special!

Chien-Ming Wang – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks vs. Mike Leake (6 IP, 5 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks).  Waited for someone at the park to hold up a sign that said, “Leake’s Here, Wang, Urine Trouble!”

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2-for-8 with his 21st and 22nd homer.  Read something on ESPN by one of their analcysts and it was saying how Adrian Gonzalez is the clear frontrunner for the MVP over Ellsbury.  All I know is if Ellsbury hit third this year, he’d have 27 homers, 35 steals and 120 RBIs.

Jeff Niemann – 9 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Sonavabench!

Desmond Jennings – 3-for-9 and his 5th homer to go along with his 9 steals, all in 23 games.  *drools*  To be totally silly, his numbers over a whole season prorate to 35 homers and 63 steals.  Reading that again, I just started giggling like a schoolgirl.  I will now go buy a Trapper Keeper and write his name all over it in pink highlighter.

J.D. Martinez – 0-for-4, lowering his average to .254.  The pressure of being the Astros’ hope and dreams obviously caught up to him.

Randall Delgado – 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Threw six no-hit innings until Cody Ross took him deep.  He’s being sent back down, but is well worth watching for when he returns.  Probably not the first person to make this comparison, but Teheran, Delgado, Minor, Beachy and Hanson?  Sounds a lot like what Leo Mazzone was rocking back and forth to for so many years like he was The Masturbating Bear.

Arodys Vizcaino – Speaking of dazzling Brave arms, Vizcaino has 5 1/3 IP, 5 Ks, 2 hits allowed and no earned runs so far since his call-uuuuuuuuup a’la Dave Hester.

Yovani Gallardo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Of course, he didn’t get the win.  Why would he?  I started him after all.  I will now walk barefoot on crushed glass.

Leo Nunez – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Continuing to limp along.  Cuff him with Cishek or Dunn.

Ivan Nova – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Well, that Nova burnt out quickly.

Troy Tulowitzki – Homered for the 2nd game in a row.  It must be August or September.  (Which is totally unfair, he was actually pretty solid all year.)

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Has five straight quality starts.  He’s not owned everywhere, according to ESPN, but he should be.

Carlos Marmol – 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Here’s a video of what Marmol did last night.

Justin Verlander – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks, which brings him to a 2.31 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 204 Ks.  Will be a real joy in the playoffs when Tim McCarver explains how Verlander burst onto the scene this year, failing to mention how he’s been dominating 3 of the past 4 years.

Neil Walker – 3-for-5 with his 10th homer.  He’s now 5 for his last 8.  For someone that was cold for so long this might be the start of something.

Bobby Parnell – The Mets confirmed yesterday what I had been saying for a few weeks.  Parnell will take over the closer job now that Izzy got his 300th save.  Although the whole time I was saying it, I never stopped to think about it.  Who cares if Izzy saved 300 games?  Wasn’t like the Mets were doing this for the fanfare.  Izzy didn’t even record his 300th save in Metco.  Did Outback Steakhouse donate 300 blooming onions to the first 300 fans for the next Mets game?  Do the Mets want Izzy to wear their cap when he’s inducted into baseball’s Almost Hall of Fame with Fred McGriff?  300 saves is about as illustrious as a manager winning 300 games over the course of four seasons.  May the who’s better “Jason Isringhausen vs. Jeff Reardon” debates now start in earnest!