Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Carpenter went five innings giving up no runs, allowing 4 baserunners, adding in 6 Ks, driving in 6 runs and five golden… rings.  12 runs for the Cards, but everyone was a ticker tease, except for Carpenter who pitchslapped Kip Wells.  LaRussa’s mind must be swimming with ideas….Do I hit him 8th?  7th?  Do I platoon him with Ankiel in the OF and have Ankiel come in for intentional walks?  Do I go with a Singapore Sling or an Old Fashioned?  Why is Dave Duncan looking at me?  Is my fly open?  How come no one read my book, Tonyball?  If I’m facing East, my hair should be facing West!  Why is it going South?!  If homeless people have no homes, why do they lug around so much junk?  Homeless people shouldn’t be pack rats!… Wow, there’s a lot swimming in Tony’s mind.  Interesting to peek into the mind of a genius, ain’t it?  Surprised he didn’t mention this is the last roundup of the year.  Ho-hum, so sad.  There will still be a new post every week day through the fall and winter, so check your separation anxiety at the door.  I’m still here.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 0 ER.  His FIP last year was 3.79.  This year it was near 4.  So he was .20 off of last year.  He throws around 7 Ks per 9 innings.  So he’s good for about 155 Ks.  His Post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.39.  Guess what I’m saying is I’m going to predict next year he’ll pitch around a 3.75 ERA, good WHIP and solid Ks and he’ll be someone to look at as a third fantasy starter with number two upside and number four downside.  And in three months, I’ll quote that.

Orlando Cabrera – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  Behind the scenes of Razzball, I’m busy doing the top 20 recaps that will be coming your way over the next few weeks.  So O-Cab made it pretty high on the top 20 list for SSs.  I’m like, “Cool, he had a good 2nd half.”  He hit 4 homers and stole 6 bases while batting .296.  Okay, so he had a good two months?  Nope.  The shortstops are so shallow that a good five weeks is all it took.  Anyway, I’m jumping the gun, those recaps will be coming next week.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4 yesterday.  He’s batting .309 with one homer in September.  This is considered a good month for him.  Would I pickup Young off waivers next year?  Sure.  I wouldn’t draft him.  I’m not going to write someone off who’s only 24, but I’m at the point where I want to see something from Young before I take the gamble on him in 2010.  I mean, Ryan Raburn and Garrett Anderson are above Delmon Young on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Young’s the new blech.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  It’s Rocktober.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 2 ER.  I’m giving him the Cy Young.  He threw more innings than Carpenter, way more Ks and he’s dazzling.  I know, it’s tough to judge dazzling, but if you’ve ever watched Lincecum pitch you know what I mean.  It’s kinda like a choice between the crazy hot girl that would cheat on you and the sweet girl that would make a nice mother.  I’m taking the crazy hot girl.  For what it’s worth, I think the voters go with Carpenter.  What’s a shame in all of this is Wainwright’s getting totally ignored.  Maybe I just have a special kinship to Wainwright because I own him on a few teams and I pushed many people to draft him this year.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4, up to 215 Ks.  This last month (4 homers, 2 steals, .187) is why I’m going to probably take a pass on Reynolds if people are grabbing him in the top 50.  I saw value in him when people were drafting him around 200.  I see very little value for next year.  What do you want, I’m frugal.  It’s a recession after all.

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks.  Ends the season with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.44 ERA in the 2nd half.  The good news is his next start is scheduled for the 1st half.

Derrek Lee – Scratched for personal reasons.  Maybe he has crabs.

John Lackey – 2 IP, 2 ER and 40 pitches.  This is about what you can expect from starters who are headed to the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect more than 5 innings from any of them.  This is a shout out to you Hamels owners.

Kevin Millwood – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  And this is what to expect from pitchers facing teams headed to the playoffs.

Chris Davis – 3-for-5, and hit his 21st homer of the year.  I can’t wait to see what Bill James predicts for Chris Davis for 2010.  No sarcasm there, really interested.

Cliff Lee – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  The Adverb finishes with a 3.39 ERA for Philly.

Kendry Morales – Hit his 34th homer yesterday.   The best case scenario would be the Angels are eliminated quickly from the playoffs.  Worst case scenario is, in late-October, Joe Buck saying something like, “America’s getting a firsthand look at what Kendry Morales has been doing all year.”  Then Tim McCarver says, “Good thing there weren’t more men on base when Mt. Everest erupted cause then there would be more runs.”

Ryan Madson finally took over for Brad Lidge.  This was only about three months in the making and after six separate endorsements by Manuel saying Lidge is their closer.  Ah fanabla, what a headache.  Ever since Brett Myers returned from his MMA training, fantasy baseballers (that’s you!) seem ready to put Myers in the closer role.  That would be too easy, right?  Right.  No, Madson’s the first guy to grab and maybe Myers sees time here and there.  I’d grab both of them, unless you have a bleeding ulcer, then I’d stay away.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks and leads the AL with 16 wins.  Shoot me now.  Seriously.  Shoot me and Randy Wolf while you’re at it.

Marlon Byrd – 9 for his last 14 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs.  He was having problems with kidney stones prior to this outburst, by I guess that problem passed.  (Pun point for Grey.)  Oh, and he’s single-handedly winning H2H leagues.

Francisco Liriano – Activated from the Disgraceful List and sent to the bullpen.  He still has no value.

Jake Peavy – Supposedly, he should be ready to go against the Mariners next week.  Was this whole elbow thing a ploy to face an NL-type offense?  BTW, the White Sox pulled the plug on this season already, why are they trying to get Peavy back in there?

John Maine – Will return for this Sunday’s game vs. the Phils.  He’ll be limited to around 70 pitches which will, uh, limit his value.

Ian Kinsler/Chris Davis/Nelson Cruz -  Because we all love a nice bit of schadenfreude, I present to you, frequent commenter, Zombie, “For those who revel in others’ misfortune, I present a Trifecta Ticker Tease as the Rangers wallop the Tribe today 10-0.  Those of us who own Kinsler, Davis, AND Cruz have returned from lunch, eagerly check the boxscore and see a combined 2 for 14,  0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, and one goddamn Run…. The lone run only seems to punctuate the dearth of any additional production!  And for all you Esteban German owners out there, you deserve his 5 for 5 day, you bastards.”

Felipe Lopez – HR yesterday.  Now on pace for 10 homers and 7 steals.  Somewhere, Crapolanco smiles.

Bobby Scales – Ran head first into a wall, went down for a minute or two, then played a few more innings before being lifted for Sam Fuld.  Fuld, indeed.

Huston Street – Unable to return until early next week, according to Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca.  I love that name.

Justin Maxwell – 3-for-5, 1 steal.  Could have some cheap speed for deep leagues, but he misses being a legitimate major leaguer by that much.

Carl Pavano – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Now has 4 starts in a row where he’s been completely digestible.  He gets the Indians next.

Rafael Soriano – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save.  Member when his ERA was around 1.50, like, a month and a half ago?  Yeah, me too.  Now it’s near 3.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  And it rolls on.

Carlos Delgado/Jose Reyes – Both said they want to return in the last two weeks of the season.  The Mets will just need to win 25 of their remaining 12 games to clinch a playoff berth.

Randy Wolf – Had his start scratched with a tweaked elbow.  Sounds like an excuse to rest him as they head towards the playoffs.  Kuroda will take his start.

James Loney – HR yesterday.  Now has two in three games, while batting near .400 for the last week.

Scott Podsednik – 4-for-7 with a steal.  He’s been a top 30 outfielder this year and the most valuable White Sox hitter this year.  Cust kayin’.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-5 with a steal.  Now has 11 homers and 12 steals in 211 at-bats.  Prepare for an offseason barrage of fantasy baseball ‘perts telling you you have to own him next year and causing his value to skyrocket.

Jose Lopez – 3-for-4, HR yesterday.  Now has 3 homers in 5 games while batting near .500.

Krispie Young – Hit another homer yesterday.  Now has five in 4 games.  I’m sure we’ll see him again in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Adam Wainwright – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks with his 18th win.  He wins the Cy Young, right?  Not rhetorical.  Seriously, he does, right?

Matt Holliday – Left the game with a bruised knee.  He said he should be good by the Cards next game as long as he never has to play in Oakland again.

Albert Pujols – 2 HRs yesterday.  After the 2nd homer, Pujols’s BFF Lugo jumped around like Pujols called the shot beforehand in the dugout.  So this got me thinking, and maybe I’m just devious, but if you were a random baseball player in the playoffs, let’s say Casey Blake, wouldn’t you have your teammate pretend you called a homer?  Beforehand, Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson make a deal.  If Blake hits a homer, Hudson will jump around in the dugout screaming, “He called it!”  Like Fox Sports wouldn’t run with this story and suddenly Casey Blake would be the star of the World Series, get endorsements — Hi, I’m Casey Blake, this is a Sprint phone and I called it. — and he would get a huge contract.  Casey Blake would be synonymous with clutch.  Oh my God, I’m Scott Boras.

Tim Lincecum missed yesterday’s start vs. the Padres (there goes that 14 K start) and gave way to the Giants big-time rookie pitching prospect, Madison Bumgarner.  Lincecum should be back by this weekend.  A detailed Madison Bumgarner outlook can be found where it says, “Madison Bumgarner outlook.”  (Yeah, still haven’t figured out how to naturally link to something.  I feel like Buzz Bissinger.  Bleh!  What are these things you call links?  Bleh! Actually, that sounds more like The Count.)  So one in for Mad-Bum, and no harm done.  5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks.  I think he can supplant Joe Martinez in the rotation.  He sure as heckfire has a better name… Go with Jose at least, geez.  Bumgarner will have value in all leagues down the stretch if he has a rotation spot.  He’s risky, but in the NL West and with his stuff, well worth a look in mixed leagues.  In keepers, pursue him aggressively.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.  I expect he’ll take the David Price route next year.  Start in the minors, then get the call in June.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Lidge – Prior to getting removed from a save situation for Madson, Manuel said that Lidge will remain the Phils closer.  HA!!!  Sorry.  Lidge hasn’t been a closer in three months.  Are they freakin’ kidding me?  Lidge is pitching like he’s wearing contacts that bear Pujols’s face.  Please, someone tie Lidge to a bed and break his ankles to put him out of his misery.

Alex Gordon – He returns from his Triple-A stint.  A lot has been made of his trip to the minors.  (Because of the minors stint, he’ll be under contract through 2013.)  People are saying the Royals pulled a low move to delay free agency.  Um, and Gordon’s done something to stay in the majors?  At this rate, he may not be a major leaguer by 2013.  Though, February Grey still will probably find a way to talk him up for next year.

Pedro Martinez – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Not great vs. the Nats, but I would’ve taken it over the roofie-ing I took from Carlos Torres.  Don’t worry, I’ll get to that.

Raul Ibanez – 3-for-4 with 2 HRs yesterday.  I swear, after three months of homer sobriety from Ibanez, I was a twitch away from pulling the trigger on him.  Now, he’s hot.  Someone was looking out for me.  They obviously didn’t care enough to warn me about Carlos Torres.  Fantasy baseball, because every day stress is not enough.

Carlos Torres – 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the A’s.  I hate you, Carlos Torres.  I swore off rookie pitchers earlier this year because of a start by Hochevar vs. the A’s.  Why do the A’s hate me?  Someone, help!  I was roofied and I’m hemorrhaging from the A’s.

Julio Borbon – 2 HRs yesterday and a steal.  Someone’s been talking to Drew Stubbs.

Elvis Andrus – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, maybe he’s running now, cause he hadn’t been.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Nick Swisher – 2 HRs yesterday.  Hitting over .300 in the last seven games with 3 homers.

Evan Longoria – Has 5 homers in the last 8 games and is hitting near .500 in his last seven games.  H2H teams rostering Longoria tip their caps.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 19th homer yesterday.  If I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed it, but after Robot Jones hit his homer, he elevated five inches off the ground to allow wheels to slide out from his cleats and he rolled around the bases.

Dustin Pedroia – This might be Scrappy Doo’s first appearance in a daily roundup this year.  Well, anyway, he hit two homers yesterday against the Orioles’ Double-A pitching.

Felix Pie – 0-for-3, and 2 for his last 13.  I think he’s back to being lame.

Carlos Beltran – Returned with a 1-for-4.  Now he has three weeks to hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases.  Or if he just outproduced Angel Pagan, that would be nice, too.

Cameron Maybin – You’re going to hear about every positive thing he does until next year.  Yesterday, he hit a homer.

Nate McLouth – Hit his 2nd homer since he returned.  This is a hunch, but I think he realizes he has three weeks to make his season’s stats look somewhat palatable.

Manny Parra – Left the game with neck spasms.  Manny, you don’t watch the ball off the bat.  That’s how you get a crick in your neck.

Mat Gamel – Was recalled.  But McGehee’s got the corner locked down like Marlo Stanfield.

Corey Hart – Is back from the DL.  He says he wants to steal bases.  I have no idea if he’s lying.  I couldn’t see his eyes through his sunglasses.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4 with a HR in yesterday’s nightcap.  In the, uh, daycap he went 0-for-5.

Michael Brantley – He’s stealing bases.  You know you wanna.  Go ahead, pick him up.

Franklin Gutierrez – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  The Big FraGu’s having a better year than Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore and Josh Hamilton.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – Called up by the Rockies.  Score this a victory for the National Association for the Advancement of Gingy People.  But the NAAGP won’t rest until Murton gets playing time, so there will be a lot of late nights for them.

J.A. Happ – His strained oblique is still vaguely hurting and will miss another start.

Jeff Baker – The pride of Bad Kissingen, West Germany went 3-for-4 yesterday as he hits near .400 in the last week.

Jake Fox – Piniella hates him.  Bobby Scales?  Sam Fuld?  They sound like the bassist and drummer for the Cubs’ heavy metal band, Quite The Riot.

What Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb all have in common is obvious.  They all belong in the Pitchers Who Shouldn’t Speak At Next Year’s Fantasy Baseball Symposium For Fear Of Being Attacked category.  To a certain respect, Ricky Nolasco is right there with them.  He came out of the gate looking like a three-legged pony that wore a ribbon sponsored by Elmer’s Glue.  The reason why I point out Nolasco as a potential keeper is there’s a good chance someone dropped him in your league when he was sent to the minors, so you might have him for a free round pick or very cheap.  If that’s the case, giddy up, pony boy!  I like Nolasco’s potential for next year.  Through 147 innings, he has a 147/37 K/BB ratio, that’s outstanding.  Any time a pitcher is throwing a K an inning and keeping his walks in check, he’s worth considering for next year if you have him on the cheap.  He may just be my Wandy for next year, appearing on a majority of my teams.  Also, the reason I didn’t like him in the beginning of this year (high innings in 2008) is the reason why he’s now appealing in 2010 (low innings in 2009).  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Joey Votto – He was dealing with some shizz earlier in the year that cost him over a month of the season.  So let’s say he had his average month of 5 homers during that month off, then he’d be blowing his 2008 season out of the water and taking that natural step forward many predicted.  For a player who will only be 26 next year, don’t be thrown off by the late season tailspin this year.  He’s still very capable of being a 30 homer, 10 steal, .300 average 1st baseman.  With upside from there.

Chris Davis – I’ll be perfectly honest.  I love when guys fail after they are hyped.  This allows their value to fall and people to begin to forget them.  I’m actually kind of excited to even see if Josh Hamilton falls far enough in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts for me to have a chance at drafting him.  The same goes for Davis.  Last preseason, I talked about how Davis was overrated and ended up with Mini Donkey on all of my teams as a replacement.  That worked out okay.  With the emphasis on the imaginary “very, very” before okay.  In 2010, it might just be Davis’s turn to strikeout 200 times and give decent production.  As a keeper (I’m assuming he was dropped and you have him for cheap), Davis is looking much better for next year.

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.