Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already recapped all the 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Yo, I recapped yo’ ass! Now, a look at the rookies. Rookie nookie: 1. the desire to pickup a rookie for their upside over a reliable, but unexciting veteran. 2. Putting a chess piece where it doesn’t belong. We’re going to focus on the first definition for this post. Rookie nookie is like sex with a new partner. It’s all unknown and exciting. There’s no preconceived notions about who’s going to be on top and who’s going to refuse to bring Marshmallow Fluff into the bedroom. When you pickup these rookies, they can be anything. Mike Aviles can hit .400, Evan Longoria can hit 50 home runs, Jacoby Ellsbury can steal 100 bases. For just a moment, it’s Christmas morning, you’re eight-years-old and inside these wrapped boxes could be a 40/120/.370 hitter. Now that I’ve put my clothes on backwards and Kriss Krossed about six different metaphors, I want to say I’m a pretty big believer in rookie hitters. Usually their price tag brings very little downside and, when you’re dealing with 5th OFs, CIs or MIs, you really want to take gambles. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008:

20. J.R. Towles - I told everyone in the preseason to avoid this schmohawk like the plague. Honestly, I didn’t even think he’d be this bad. Final Numbers:  10/4/16/.137

19.  Carlos Gonzalez - Bleech.  Final Numbers:   31/4/26/.242/4

18.  Daric Burton - See Carlos Gonzalez or 1/18 of an inch above.  Final Numbers:  59/9/47/.226/2

17.  Brandon Wood - I keep liking this guy, eventually he’s going to have to play, right? I mean, how many subpar brothers (Erick and Maicer) of already subpar players (Willy and Cesar) can one team play? Final Numbers:  12/5/13/.200/4

16.  Taylor Teagarden - There was about a two week period there were Teagarden hit a home run in every game he played. Unfortunately, the Rangers feel the need to have four Major League-ready catchers. Grey to the Rangers, “Choose one catcher and trade away the rest. You’re welcome.” Final Numbers:  10/6/17/.319

15.  Pablo Sandoval - This is a bit Jayson Stark of me to point out, but in over four hundred less at-bats than Bengie Molina, Sandoval had only 22 less runs scored. And Molina had a good year by his standards! <– Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary. Final Numbers:  24/3/24/.345

14.  Chris Dickerson - Dickerson’s on my short list of guys I’m watching in 2009 Spring Training. To clarify, that is not a height-challenged list. Final Numbers:  20/6/15/.304/5

13.  Chase Headley - Rudy and I were talking (we talk, ya’ll!) and I think we might make Razzball an anti-Padres hitter site. This is still in the discussion stage. Final Numbers:  34/9/38/.269/4

12. Ian Stewart - With 2nd base eligibility, you coud’ve done worse. Like any schmohawk that was playing 2nd for the Padres. Final Numbers:  33/10/41/.259/1

11.  David Murphy - Does he yawnstipate me because his name is so boring or because of his numbers?  Prolly a bit of both. (BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve fully adopted turning probably into prolly. I haven’t embraced anything this freely since Z. Cavariccis in the late ’80s.) Final Numbers:  64/15/74/.275/7

10.  Kosuke Fukudome - Didn’t like the latest import from the Far East in the preseason and that panned out. Final Numbers:  79/10/58/.257/12

9.  Denard Span - He replaced Carlos Gomez at the top of the order and showed a disciplined eye. Who is Denard Span, Alex? Final Numbers:  70/6/47/.294/18

8. Jay Bruce - When Jay Bruce was called up there was a large group of people on Razzball that thought they saw the messiah. Unfortunately, when Bruce went to walk on water, the Ks sunk him. He’s still only 21 and there’s no reason think he won’t be great. Final Numbers:  63/21/52/.254/4

7.  Mike Aviles - This year, the peasant Royals had a few gems. Aviles was one. Final Numbers:   68/10/51/.325/8

6.  Chris Davis - His average this year will be exploited in a full year’s worth of play, but he was fine in 2008. Final Numbers:  51/17/55/.285/1

5.  Joey Votto - Was the Barbara Hersey to Jay Bruce’s Bette Midler. Please, like you’ve never seen Beaches. Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

4.  Alexei Ramirez - Premenopausal Alfonso Soriano showed flashes of power rather than hot flashes. Final Numbers:  65/21/77/13/.290

3.  Jacoby Ellsbury - I almost placed Ellsbury number four and Alexei Ramirez here at number three, but 50 steals make a big difference and 9 home runs aren’t exactly Juan Pierrey. And, yes, Juan Pierrey is an adjective. Look it up! Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

2.  Geovany Soto - Usually everything the Cubs fans root for turns to crizz-ap, but not this time. Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

1.  Evan Longoria - The Rays didn’t Scrooge us out of Longoria as I feared in March and Longoria didn’t Alex Gordon us out of a good rookie year. Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright - If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes - Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny - Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval - A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf - Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas - Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds - The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez - As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent - Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm - I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price - Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ‘09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler - I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter - You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy - He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. - He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis - He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street - He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui - Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw - 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson - Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis - About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier - 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena - HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora - 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez - 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks - Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios - 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt - Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington - Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton - HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis - Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind - HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones - Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss - Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler - Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

Monday night as I wrote the roundup, I was looking around my waiver wire for possible saves. I saw Taylor Buchholz and I began to think about how likely it would be for Fuentes to get traded. The Rockies are in a division that may only need a .500 record to win it. Why are they sellers? Holliday, Fuentes? I guess it could happen, but I don’t see it. Then I came across the crapfecta of Ayala, Hanrahan and Saul Rivera. Why couldn’t Rauch be traded? Because Chad Cordero was never traded those years the Nats floundered? Didn’t seem like enough of a reason. So I turned on my giant brain and decided Luis Ayala was going to be the next Nats closer. (Maybe you remember the last time I turned on my giant brain I killed Sydney Pollack.) Well, wouldn’t you know it, Rauch was traded and Ayala became the new closer– Zoinks! Okay, Ayala may not be the closer, but here’s my reasoning why he will be the guy. (Since I deduced this using my giant brain, you may not understand my logic. Feel free to skip ahead. Those with a heart condition or pregnant women should not try and follow along.) Ayala was the setup man and Hanrahan was pitching a few innings at a time. Crazy, right?! I know! Maybe Hanrahan does move into the closer role because he’s been better of late, but clubs don’t usually make decisions that make sense (Wolf goes to the Astros!). Neither guy (or Saul Rivera) should be invested in too heavily. Rauch nailed down only 2 saves this past month and 17 saves in almost 2/3 of the season. We could be looking at 3 guys splitting up 10 saves. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Shaun Marcum - He returned from his elbow injury and gave up six earned runs in 4 2/3. The good news is, he didn’t give up seven earned runs. I’ve been saying I didn’t want him anymore when he first went on the DL.

Mark Buehrle - 7.1 IP, 1 ER. This schmohawk joins Aaron Cook as a guy that I picked up in May and that I can’t believe I still have him on a bunch of teams.

Brad Hawpe - HR. Hawpe is hawt. *cue Rosco P. Coltrane laughter*

Adam Lind - 4-for-5, HR. In deep leagues, there’s a lot worse fliers you can take than Lind.

Clayton Kershaw - Not a good game, but I’d let him start a game at home before casting him off.

Brad Ziegler - 23 2/3 straight scoreless innings streak. According to Elias Sports Bureau, “Ziegler is the first pitcher with a scoreless streak over 20 IP that has a name similar to Ian Ziering.” (Actually, the Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like it. Here’s some more things that sound like the Elias Sports Bureau might have said them. “Last Wednesday was the first time in three years that five Elias Sports Bureau employees wore the color beige,” “Seventeen Elias Sports Bureau employees sneezed today for a new all-time high,” and “There’s no one more full of shit than Stephen Baldwin.”

Ubaldo Jimenez - 1 ER, CG. If you had the Rox to start him.

Josh Willingham - I still like him, but he’s been on my bench for a week now. He needs to pretend he’s a 30/.280 guy or I’m chucking him. You’ve been warned.

Denard Span - Span’s leading off and batting .341 as CarGo hits from the nine hole. (I could see myself being a big fan of Carlos Gomez over this winter as we prepare for 2009, but right now he’s overmatched.)

Kerry Wood - May not go on the DL after all. In other news, water is… not wet?

Freddy Sanchez - If you’re suffering through Ty Wiggington or some other schmohawk at MI, Freddy Sanchez is starting to get hot. Steals? Nah. Home runs? Not many, but he could hit .330 for a month.

Joe Blanton - What, you thought he’d be good in the NL? Wait until you see how well he is when pitching in his new home.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Rick VandenHurk - 5 IP, no hits and he still was pulled, what does that tell you about his control? He gave up 5 walks against 7 Ks. VandenHurk and Volstad sounds like a law firm of vampires.

Eric Byrnes - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the I’m-Not-Coming-Back-This-Year-But-I’m-Going-To-Pretend-I-Will List.

Alexis Rios - Hit his 6th HR. Man, what a busted season. If you don’t have him, you may not understand what a bullet you dodged. He has comparable numbers to Victorino, and The Flying Hawaiian was on the DL earlier in the year and he lost playing time to Werth. Incredible.

Duaner Sanchez - 3 ER without recording an out as Duaner made a strong case to never get the ball in the ninth.  I think Heilman gets the ball tomorrow if the Mets have the lead. Or the Mets put some of that numbing spray shizz on Wagner’s shoulder and send him out there.

Chris Davis - HR. Okay, maybe he doesn’t need to be benched when the Rangers aren’t in Arlington.

Randy Wolf - With this trade, I see no way the Astros don’t overtake the Reds and finish in fourth. Unless the Reds trade for Barry Zito. Then the race will be on!

Erik Bedard - After tossing the ball on Sunday, he landed on the MRI table-thingie. Guess what, ya’ll? Not a good sign. Or maybe the Mariners just want an excuse to shut him down for the year and they rigged a VW Bug to look like an MRI machine and they hired some extras to play the part of doctors. In a grand Shakespearan accent, “I did Uncle Vanya in the Park and I was the dog walker in “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.’”

What’s the ultimate slumpbuster? Some players and the Urban Dictionary would argue a fat chick. The Braves know the true answer. A weekend in Mississippi. Jeff Franceour went 7-for-13 with 2 RBIs in three minor league games before the Braves decided his mind was messed with enough and they returned him to the majors. Maybe tomorrow they’ll call Francoeur into the front office to tell him his Mom died only to then say, “Psyche!” Francouer hasn’t changed overnight. He’s a hacker who can hit, but with less power than you’d think. Assuming he gets back to form, he should hit a pro-rated 90-100 RBIs before end of the year. But there hasn’t been much in his peripherals that promise that. Worth holding onto or gambling on, but he’s definitely marked down vs. his preseason value. Anyway, here’s what we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Church - May not return this year because of persistent migraines. Perhaps his head would toughen up if Moises Alou peed on it.

Torii Hunter - His 2 HR day puts him on pace for his yawnstipating 20/20 season (22/17 to be exact). But he’s only on pace for 77 RBIs - this has more to do with the anemic Angels offense than double-i, but it’s still pretty pathetic for the AL. Didn’t Sizemore get this many last year from the leadoff spot?

Chris Davis - HR yesterday. Until further notice, I’m only starting him when he’s at home, unless it’s a short schedule day.

Manny Parra - Pitched an inning of relief in the Rockies game yesterday. I mentioned in the forums that I think it was just his throw day. Later, Suppan was put on the DL to make room in the rotation. We’re all good, gang.

Damaso Marte - Notched a save, his second. I see no reason why he can’t get to 15 saves.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Ubaldo was solid last year, if you remove a mediocre September. He looked good in his last start and he was good last night (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 Ks). He might go on a two month stretch where he can be very usuable. He gets the Mets this Saturday.

Jack Wilson - The Dodgers “have zeroed in on Jack Wilson to replace Rafael Furcal.” Zeroed has never been more apt a description for a trade target.

Josh Johnson - Scheduled to start against the Dodgers on Thursday. Josh Johnson hasn’t pitched in so long that we’re not sure if he played Casey in Dawson’s Creek. Would Katie Holmes start him? I don’t think so.

David Ortiz - He took batting practice today. Supposedly he’ll be ready just after the All-Star break. I’d say August.

Adam LaRoche - It’s the 2nd half so it’s time for LaRoche to hit. 11 for 21 w/ 2 HR and 9 RBI in the last 7 games. Why don’t the Pirates insist he play winter ball?

Nomar Garciaparra - HR yesterday. Nomar gave Mia the game ball, but that didn’t stop her from making a scene in the parking lot when Nomar told her that he drank half a beer after the game. Not on a school night!

Adrian Beltre - As the Mariners languish in last, Beltre gets predictably hot.

Hiroki Kuroda - Ah-so this is why the Dodgers got him! Actually, he’s been solid all season aside from a few hiccups. Yesterday he pitched a one-hit, shutout.

Vladimir Guerrero - HR against the Rangers. That brings his career numbers against the Rangers to 22 HRs/.408 in 77 games. In related news, the Rangers pitching used to suck/still sucks/will suck.

Jason Varitek - Your backup AL all-star catcher! Between him and Jeter, the AL is packed with baseball IQ, a never say die attitude and you-just-can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness.