Fantasy Baseball Advice

As I alluded to in my 3rd baseman posting, first base scares me greatly this year in a deep league format.  Outside the big six – Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, & Mark Teixiera – I see very little reliability from a position that could leave you hurting if you aren’t an owner of one of those guys.  Don’t agree with me?  Well go look at the 1st baseman that come after those 6 on Mock Draft Central to round out your top ten: Konerko, Hosmer, Morse, & Berkman.  Your 11th is Freddie Freeman; the quintessential average first baseman.  I know people want to consider Konerko safe, but he’s 36.  I prefer not to be the first person in line to find out when the wheels come off guys like him.  Then there’s Hosmer – a 22 year old who can’t take a walk.  I like his career long term, but even fangraphs is projecting him around 23/13.  Steals are nice, but I want 30 HRs from my 1st baseman and I want them now!  Round things out with Morse – a person with very little track record though I do kinda trust him – and Berkman.  Hey, if I don’t trust Konerko at 36, why would I trust a guy who had his worst major league season in 2010 and hit 24 of his 31 HRs in the first half of his rebound 2011 campaign who is also 36 and won’t have Pujols in his lineup anymore?  And was that a long sentence or was it just me?  Point being, I do not want to leave the first round without a 1B this year.  Taking Teixiera would most likely ruin my perfect draft, but I would grab him nonetheless.  However, if I could get one of those first 5 this year, I’d feel comfortable taking a risk on Paul Goldschmidt around the 12th.  There are a lot of upside plays later in the draft that I have no problem taking a gamble on, but I want at least one of my first basemen to be an offensive rock for me.

I’ll Avoid

Freddie Freeman - Well duh, ONC, you’ve already said you don’t trust him.  Actually, I didn’t say I have no faith in him, I said he was boring.  Like Gaby Sanchez boring.  But Sanchez’ ADP is 196 while Freeman’s is 120; I called and left a message with mockdraftcentral about this one and they haven’t gotten back with me yet.  Wanted to know if it’s a girls name discount or something.  I also asked them about why guys disappear from the rankings when you filter by position like why I can’t see Berkman and have to rewrite my post because of it.  Don’t they know I have a day job and need to leave for work right now?  Neverthewho!  Some people believe the end of the season was the start of a breakout.  Some people also believe that aliens built Egyptian pyramids.  You can believe whatever you wanna believe.  Just keep it off my History Channel.  I came here for facts!

Ryan Howard – Didn’t have a great season last year then fell down, went boom as the final play of the Phillies playoff run.  He hasn’t played for long but he was a late prospect; dude is 32 coming off a really bad injury.  I think there are better gambles you can make at 176 ADP.

I’ll Go For:

Adam LaRoche - Nestled in the bosom of the the 26th round is a name that many are familiar with from fantasy baseball years past.  LaRoche – which is french for ‘The Roach’, though I don’t know if that’s the bug or the thing you pass around the lava lamp while making philosophical ruminations about Scooby Doo – isn’t sexy, for sure.  He’s a been there, done that kind of guy who gives you 25 HRs and 80 to 90 RBI with a .270 average when healthy.  Considering the health risks of Kendrys Morales (18th round) and Justin Morneau (14th), you’re taking much less risk with his shoulder holding up than you are with the other two.

Chris Davis - Oh yes, I went there.  The hatred of Davis runs deep.  Going back to 2010, he was supposed to be a 30 HR hitter in the middle of a dangerous Texas lineup.  But its hard to stick in a lineup when you strike out 35% of the time.  Though he jacked 21 HRs in 2010, he had a .238 average and showed a lack of patience at the plate with a 5.7% walk rate.  Truthfully, none of these potholes in his game have necessarily changed.  What HAS changed is he’s on a team that doesn’t mind a guy that strikes out 200 times in a season.  If they’re willing to ride Mark Reynolds at 3B while he hits .221, why would they show Davis the door?  Look for 25 HRs, a crap-ton of K’s and don’t expect an average above .250; you shouldn’t be disappointed with finding that with a 297 ADP.

Situation to Monitor: Oakland

They’ve got 4 guys competing for the starter’s role in Oakland this year.  One guy has a great OBP but no power: Daric Barton.  Two of them have great power, ok OBP but a craptacular K rate: Chris Carter & Brandon Allen.  And then there’s Kila Ka’aihue. I just can’t quit this man.  Kila seems to fit everything that Moneyball is supposed to be about: I get on base via walks or I hit a HR.  Kansas City only brought him up last year because they needed someone to cover first while they groomed Hosmer’s game and his scroatee (that’s my term for goatees grown by young men who can’t really grow them.  They’re scruffy lookin.  Scruffy + Goatee = Scroatee.  Get it?  Yeah, whatever to you too!  PS, don’t go look up the Urban Dictionary on that one.  Or do if you need reverse psychology).  Back to the point: That type of confidence in a player doesn’t breed…well, confidence in a player.  This one should play out fairly quickly in spring training but my bitcoins are on the Kila monster winning the job.

Oakland Athletics 2011 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2011)
2011 (28) | 2010 (12) | 2009 (3) | 2008 (27) | 2007 (27) | 2006 (26) | 2005 (8) | 2004 (17)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [74-82] AL West
AAA: [88-56] Pacific Coast League – Sacramento
AA: [63-77] Texas League – Midland
A+: [75-65] California League – Stockton
A: [76-62] Midwest League – Burlington, Iowa
A(ss): [39-35] Northwest League – Vermont Lake
R: [27-29] Arizona Rookie League

The Run Down
Once again, the Oakland Athletics farm system is rather top heavy, lacks pitching depth and several of their “future” studs have struggled. Michael Taylor turned things around but is going on 26 years of age. Jemile Weeks provided excellent production from second base, and Fautino de los Santos pitched well in his relief role. Grant Green was solid at Double-A and Michael Choice had a stellar season at Stockton. On the flip side, Max Stassi (C), their sixth overall prospect, slashed .231/.331/.331 in 121 at-bats at High-A Stockton, in the California league no less. At just twenty, he has upside as a free-swinging catcher who can’t play defense or hit. Then you have the oft-traded Chris Carter finally receiving a call-up, only for him to strikeout 20 times in 44 at-bats. He still remains a rookie, and his power is legit. Even his strikeout rates in the minors were only in the mid-20% range. I believe he’ll be a sneaky play in deep leagues. Ian Krol, their top left-handed pitcher injured his elbow and pitched only five innings all year. Beyond him, there isn’t much. I suspect that the A’s will be trading for pitching at some point in the 2011-2012 off-season. All of this is to say: enjoy the Raiders, they are the best team in Oakland. Here are some prospects that may hold fantasy baseball value in 2012.

Arizona Fall League Players – Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers: #4 Tyson Ross (RHP); TBA; TBA; TBA
Hitters: Ryan Ortiz (C); Dusty Coleman (IF); Michael Choice (OF); Grant Green (SS/OF)

Graduated Prospects
#4 Tyson Ross (RHP); #5 Jemile Weeks (2B); #13 Fautino De Los Santos;

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 Chris Carter | 1B:
He turns 25 in December. Has 35 home run power. He was not on my Top 50 Fantasy Prospect list, but will be added over the offseason. I believe that Brandon Allen will receive the first base job and Carter the DH position. If you need more information you could read his Scouting the Unknown.

#3 Grant Green | SS: From my Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2012 list, “Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details. Career ceiling is 20 to 25 home runs, with 10 to 15 steals and a strong average, in the .280 to .300 range.”

15 Adrian Cardenas | 2B/3B: In Oakland’s 2010 Minor League Review, I stated, “Not sure what to think of Cardenas at this point in his career. He’s a boring, average defensively, a gap power, contact hitting MI with strong control of the strike zone. He’s a perfect utility player, even if his defense is only solid at second. Last year I compared him to Orlando Hudson at best.” Much remains the same. He’s still more of a second basemen than third. I’d compare him more to Placido Polanco than Hudson at this point. Won’t acquire a full time position without an injury. Knowing the injury history of Jemile Weeks, there is a high probability of this occurring.

#10 Michael Taylor | RF: Hurt shoulder in 2010, which caused his performance to diminish. However, even in the Pacific Coast League this past year, he slashed .272/.360/.456 with 32 XBH (16 home runs) in 349 at-bats with 14 steals. The numbers are solid but he didn’t play a full year again. The A’s are loaded in the outfield, and he’ll have to battle his way for a starting spot in Spring Training. He has 20/20 potential if given the playing time; this just isn’t guaranteed at this point. His age is starting to work against him, he’ll need to show his worth soon or see himself floating from organization to organization as a fourth outfielder.

#12 Josh Donaldson | C: Defensively, he’s nothing special, but plays with great athleticism. At one point, he played third base. Offensively, he has good raw power, decent feel for the strike zone and is an aggressive hitter. Donaldson slashed .261/.344/.439 at Triple-A in 444 at-bats, with 35 XBH (17 home runs) and a 100:51 K:BB ratio. Kurt Suzuki appears to be regressing each year due a high work load early in his career, which opens the door for Donaldson to show his worth. He turns 26 this offseason and will be in his prime hitting years. He could provide a sneaky 18 to 20 home run hitting catcher if given 450 at-bats.

Pitchers
Travis Banwart | RHP-SP: Throws a 88-90 MPH fastball, a good changeup and inconsistent breaking pitches. He appears to be an innings eater, that could be a sufficient fifth starter on a non-contending team. In 2011, he threw 149 2/3 innings with a 7.2 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9. Long-term projects as a long-relief pitcher. Could receive a few spot starts during the year, or more if significant injuries occur.

#23 Trystan Magnuson | RHP-RP: Throws a heavy 92-94 sinking fastball, an inconsistent slider that is rated as a plus pitch at times and a work-in-progress splitter. He’s a power reliever and right-hand specialist at this point in his career. Could be a nice ratio pitcher to add in hold leagues.

Honorable Mention
Hitters
#3 Michael Choice | LF: Baseball America states that Choice, “Swings the bat with great leverage and tremendous speed … [Nature of his swing makes him] susceptible to strikeouts … Raw power rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scale.” I would say his .285/.376/.542 slash line in 467 at-bats with 59 XBH, 30 of those being home runs, nine steals in 14 attempts and 134-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio prove BA’s scouting report correct. Double-A will prove how much of his friendly home environment played in his success. The talent and power is legitimate. I’m excited for 2013 when his relevancy will be more pertinent.

#24 Steve Parker | 3B: His power disappeared after leaving the friendly confines of the California League. He hit only 10 home runs with 30 doubles at Double-A in 504 at-bats. Scott Sizemore ended the year at third with Andy LaRoche on the bench. Truthfully, Parker looks more like Danny Valencia than even David Freese. He’ll need to prove himself at Triple-A before the A’s contemplate calling him up to compete for a job.

Pitchers
Robert Gilliam | RHP-SP: Pitched well in an extreme hitting environment – High-A Stockton (California League). In 164 1/3 innings, Gilliam had the following ratios: 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.3 Hr/9, 4.30 FIP, .307 BABIP, 1.30 WHIP. Those aren’t fantastic numbers, but they are noteworthy due to the environment. Could receive a late season call-up if he continues to pitch this well.

Graham Godfrey | RHP-SP: He pitches well after gaining experience at each level. Is old at 27. If given a call-up for a spot-start, I’d avoid for now.

Recently, I had the pleasure of doing karaoke with Johnny Cueto.  He decided to go with Landslide by Fleetwood Mac.  Here’s what he sang, “I took my ERA and I took it down….  I climbed a mountain and I turned around…  And I saw my xFIP in the snow covered hills… Well, I’ve been afraid of changing… ‘Cause I’ve kicked the life out of Jason LaRue… Awh, take this ERA, and TAKE IT DOWN!…”  Then I joined him on stage for Islands in the Stream.  Cueto was pitch perfect with Stevie Nicks even if he did skip lines here and there to keep it related to fantasy baseball.  Right now, his ERA is 1.63.  Oh, c’mon.  Seriously, come on.  Come on, come on, come on Chameleon!  His xFIP is 3.52.  His K-rate is 6.23 which isn’t good and below previous season marks.  He’s leaving 83% men on and has a .216 BABIP.  There’s not one category he’s excelling in right now except ERA.  The mouth on the left side says, “S.” The mouth on the right side says, “ell.”  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jonathan Broxton – ‘So much junk, so much junk inside that trunk’ could be lyrics about the Dodgers bullpen or specifically about Broxton.

Mark Melancon – He doesn’t make the cut off of 50% owned in ESPN for this post, but that’s my own self-imposed rule, so screw you, homes!  Kidding.  (Or am I?!)  I’m listing Melancon because his ownership is actually going down.  Um, he’s the closer, what gives?

Chris Carter – I just went over my Chris Carter fantasy.  I wrote it while waiting for a studio light to fall on Carson Daly’s head.

Ty Wigginton – I just got a Lane Bryant spring collection catalog in the mail so that could only mean one thing… I accidentally got my neighbor’s mail.  Oh, and Ty Wigginton’s hitting.

Jeff Baker – While the Purple Evolutionist is off mending and writing in his journal about the dodo bird, Baker is seeing starts in his stead.  “Yo, get out of my stead!”  That was a farmer in the 1860′s.

Jemile Weeks – Just went over him this morning, shut all your porn windows and pay attention to Razzball!

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – This will be the last mention of Nishioka in a Buy column.  Won’t mean I like him more or less, but shizz is getting repetitive.

Chris Getz – Has stolen a decent amount of bases this season (12 — well, I did modify with ‘decent’), but he’s strictly a poor man’s everyman.

David Freese – Over the course of a full season, he’s capable of 20 homers and a solid average.  He won’t be playing a whole season. Don’t quibble, Random Italicized Voice.  But I’m hungry. That’s not what quibble means.  Riiiight. I’d grab Freese and expect some power and a good average.

Dayan Viciedo – I think we’re finally affecting change.  Last week I told you to pick up Viciedo and this week he’s gone up 0.1% in ownership at ESPN.  Woo-hoo!  Razzball, we’re the tenth-percenters!

Roger Bernadina – I told you to grab him about a month ago.  In that time, he’s been better than Victorino, Ethier, Beltran, Bautista (eat it!), Bossman Upton, Abreu, Ichiro, etc. etc. etc.  How is he owned in only 24% of ESPN leagues?  Oh, as we just learned, he’d only be owned in 23.9% of ESPN leagues without us.  Yay me!

Jason Bay – Haven’t been a big fan of his for years and I’m not suddenly flipping sides like Anakin.  I told you to grab him the other day after his 3-for-3, home run game.  Then he went back to old Bay without the delicious fish, meat or chicken seasoning.  If he’s available, I’d take a flyer that he might get hot.

Wily Mo Pena – Probably only a very short term add for power.  On the bright side, his strikeouts generate electricity.

Jonny Gomes – It’s Jonny cat!  Frisky!  I love this short term add for power, but you must be able to switch him in and out of your lineup when he’s not playing.

Desmond Jennings – I’m guessing he’s up in the next week to ten days.  If someone wants to Gillooly Fuld and Ruggiano, that time can be bumped up.

Jon Jay – Four score and one month ago, I told you Juan Hay would get value when Holliday went to the DL.  He did a’ight, but didn’t really shamwow my fantasy teams.  Well, he’s getting another opportunity with Pujols carrying the burden of one million fantasy teams ruined.

Jordan Schafer – The Braves announced that even with the return of McLousy, Schafer will be the starter.  Now when Prado returns something’s gotta give, old lady movie.  Until then, I’d grab Schafer for some speed.

Brandon Beachy – I’ve talked about him so much that he should be on everyone’s team that reads this site.  There’s really no excuse.  And that’s me just being real with you.

Cory Luebke – If he were on any other team, I’d tell you to hold, but in Petco very little can go wrong (damn, if that’s not a jinx I don’t know what is).

Carlos Carrasco – His name sounds like an upscale Mexican restaurant and he’s throwing some good stuff at the plate.  It’s a mashup of puns!  I’m like Girl Talk of fantasy baseball bloggers.  (If you don’t know Girl Talk, shame on you.  Download All Day.  Here’s your preemptive you’re welcome.)

Doug Fister – Fister?  But he hardly knew her!  Sorry, so hard to resist that.  He’s at a 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season.  Yeah, that’s better than that other schmohawk you own.  And him too.

SELL

Rick Porcello – Of course you should drop him.  I’m only listing him to make a point.  We get some comments in the Buy/Sell that there are so many more Buy’s than Sell’s.  Well, yeah, dur.  I’m not going to list 35 names of players to drop.  Plus, people have players that are injured and need short term replacements so that’s what the Buy does.  Gives you some names for fill-in’s.  Now back to the Sell…

Ryan Vogelsong – He’s up to about 97% owned which means there’s been some Johnny-come-lately’s who have gone to the waiver wire in your league to find Vogelsong gone.  After that, they’re like, “Damn, you so-and-so always get the hot waiver wire adds.”  At that point, you sell Vogelsong to them.

Michael Morse – Sorry, you knew it was coming though, right?  I mean, he hit .400+ in May and around .330 so far in June.  If he hit .270 the rest of the way, it wouldn’t completely surprise me.  He has 13 home runs now, he might hit ten the rest of the way.  That would give him around 25 homers and .280 for the whole season.  That’s great, wonderful, superlative.  Now I’m not trading him for a Bed, Bath and Beyond 20% off coupon, but I would explore options.

The A’s promoted Chris Carter.  Too bad Chris Carter wasn’t around when Mulder was pitching for the A’s.  Then they could’ve had Scully call the game.  Chris Berman looked at his stats and says, “All Chris Carter does is hit home runs!” which means he’ll kill your average, won’t steal bases, and probably won’t help your runs and RBIs.  Back in January, Chris Carter said this about playing with the A’s out of spring training, “I’m still thinking it’s my job to lose, basically.  It’s a business.  They want to win and make the team better.”  That isn’t as great a quote as, “Who are you, Karim Garcia?  I do not know you,” but it’s still pretty solid.  It’s like you go into a job interview and say, “If you want the burgers to get flipped right, I’ll get hired.  What, you want crap burgers?”  Unfortunately, Carter was in Make Believe Land hanging with the Easter Bunny.  It was not his job to lose.  In the preseason, I said, “This Chris Carter looks like Ryan Howard.  In every possible way.  He strikes out a lot.  He hits a lot of homers.  He talks to Turtle about tequila.  He weighs 230+ el-bees.  He stands six foot five.  He once finished off a grand slam 7 hours after the last pitch of a game thanks to Denny’s.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Further in my Chris Carter fantasy, I gave him the line of 35/22/55/.225/3 in 400 ABs and said he’d be called up on June 1st.  He missed a month of that, so now I’ll revise it to 30/17/40/.235.  I.e. great in AL-Only leagues, not so much in mixed leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – Out with back stiffness.  Him and Morneau should be like Rene Russo and Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon.  Only instead of comparing battle scars, they show ailments.  “That’s no strained oblique!  This is a strained oblique!”

Jesus Montero – Was benched in the minor leagues for lack of enthusiasm.  Said teammate Judas Outlander, “Jesus thinks he walks on water.  Like he’s some sort of martyr for playing in Triple-A vs. being in the bigs.”

Michael Pineda – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Well, he’s supposed to regress.  Key words, supposed to.

Alex Presley – The king of Pirate prospects is being called up to DH next week.  Can’t imagine he sticks around longer than that because of the crowded outfield.  In NL-Only leagues, it’s worth a short term flyer.  He profiles like a 12/20 guy over the course of a season.  Hits and runs like McCutchen, looks more like McLovin’.

Brett Lawrie – The Jays announced he’s out until August.  Maybe they read Razzball because when he was first hurt I said he’d be out until August.  But I write my posts at a Holiday Inn Express.

Jemile Weeks – 1-for-3, 2 steals and hit leadoff.  Without you knowing, I quietly pulled back on my Weeks love earlier this week.  I also drank your milk straight from the carton.  My bad!  I did that with Weeks because I wasn’t sure where Ellis was going to play, but it looks like Weeks will continue to start even with Ellis returning.  You now have my permission to fall backwards into Jemile’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Chris Capuano – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Feliz Capuano’s!  That’s for the title of the post about Capuano that is never going to happen because he’ll never warrant it.  In Metco, for the right matchups, in H2H leagues where your stats are erased every week… Okay.  But that’s real tentative.  He’s really nothing but a high WHIP, low 4 ERA pitcher.  It’s nothing terrific.

David Wright – Cleared to resume baseball activities.  What are his special skills, Microsoft Word, Powerpoint and bubble blowing?  Oh, resume to start again…Not as in curriculum vitae.  I’ll believe it when I see it with the Mets.  His value the day before he returns might be his peak value for the rest of the season, but I guess I’ll cover that right before he returns.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 12 Ks.  Rudy and I just got Lincecum in a trade for Marmol.  It was sent to us.  I’m not sure the virtual paint dried on the trade before I signed off on it.

Juan Miranda – Hit his 7th home run yesterday.  I’ll give this to the Diamondbacks.  They really give their guys a chance to succeed or fail.  Shoot, they gave Stephen Drew four years.  Miranda’s someone to watch closely in case he gets hot.  Great park, decent talent.  He will be an average liability.

Roy Oswalt – 2 IP, 4 ER and pulled from the game with lower back stiffness.  He had back issues earlier this year.  He should wear some support under his overalls!  Five schmools says he’s headed to the Disgraceful List.

Roger Bernadina – 1-for-4, he’s gonna be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  It’s a real barn burner!  I hope I live past Friday, but if I don’t, this afternoon’s Buy/Sell won’t be a bad note to go out on.  Sorta like Crimes and Misdemeanors for Woody Allen.  (Um, Grey, Woody Allen’s still alive and making movies.)  Parentheticals just don’t understand.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  You’re probably wondering why I’m even mentioning Marquis.  Well, there was only five games yesterday.  It’s the type of day where a dedicated fantasy baseball blogger can take his time when he masturbates.  “Tell me, Scott Podsednik’s wife, does it impress you that I drafted your husband when he stole 70 bases?  Does it?!”

Jim Riggleman – Abruptly resigned as the Nats got over .500 and won 11 of their last 12.  He probably figured this was his best chance of going out on top.  It’s like Costanza leaving the room on a joke.  “We won 11 out of the last 12.  Thank you!  Good night!”

Rookie pitchers give you a roofie.  Rookie hitters give you agita.  So why do we keep going back for more like a guest on Montel?  It’s sorta like the old joke that Woody Allen quotes in Annie Hall.  We need the eggs.  Besides said eggs, if a rookie somehow/someway breaks out, he’ll help you win your championship.  If you draft properly in the first 7 to 10 rounds, your team will be competitive, but so should other teams.  It’s what you do after those rounds that makes the difference.  You’re not winning your league with Longoria in the first round, but you could with Mike Minor in the 20th.  As wonky as that sounds, it’s true.  If you click on the player’s name, you’ll find whole posts and projections for each guy.  It’s like Santa woke up drunk in March.  Anyway, here’s some rookies to target for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Mike Minor – In my pitchers’ pairings post, I told you to grab Mike Minor or Jordan Zimmermann on every team.  Then I see teams in the comments that don’t have either with a variation of this comment, “Grey (insert compliment), what do you think of my team?”  I don’t think you have Mike Minor or Jordan Zimmermann, that’s what I think.

Jesus Montero – I wrote the post you find under Montero’s linky-ma-jig prior to the Russell Nathan Jeanson Coltrane Martin, Jr. fiasco.  Montero should be owned in all keeper leagues and I don’t mind taking a flyer on him late in two catcher leagues, but, as of right now, he’s not going to get enough looks for one catcher leagues.  If J. Martin gets hurt (very possible with a side of “It’s going to happen at some point”), Montero will be a hot add across all leagues.

Jeremy Hellickson – For ratios, I give Hellickson the best rookie starter numbers.  Better than even our friend, Mike Minor (well, he’s my friend).  The Rays are pretty conservative and I don’t see them abusing Hellickson’s arm so he will probably be skipped most of September if he starts in the rotation out of the gate.

Michael Pineda – Just went over him yesterday, but you knew that because you follow along every day, right?  Mmm-hmm.

Domonic Brown – Tough (hamate bone) break for Brown for this year.  To look at the glass as half full, the shine is going to be off of Brown for 2012.  Hopefully those damn Mayans are wrong.

Chris Carter – Back in January, Chris Carter said this, “I’m still thinking it’s my job to lose, basically.  It’s a business.  They want to win and make the team better.”  That isn’t as great a quote as, “Who are you, Karim Garcia?  I do not know you,” but it’s still pretty solid.  It’s like you go into a job interview and say, “If you want the burgers to get flipped right, I’ll get hired.  What, you want crap burgers?”  Unfortunately, Carter’s in Make Believe Land hanging with the Easter Bunny.  It’s not his job to lose.

Aroldis Chapman – Let’s quote what I said back in November of last year, “Fidel Castro used to karaoke Sublime by singing, “I don’t practice Santeria, I can’t see Aroldis’ fastball.”  It’s fast.  We’ll leave it at that.  There’s really no question.  Let’s give some numbers now.  In 26 IP of his rookie year, 25 Ks, 1.15 WHIP and a 2.42 ERA.  Then in his sophomore year, his numbers were 160 2/3 IP, 130 Ks, 1.51 WHIP and a 4.82 ERA.  His wildness really stopped him from being successful with 96 walks.  There were definitely some flashes of brilliance, but almost completely unownable in fantasy.  Wait, next year hasn’t happened yet. Oh, right, random italicized voice.  My bad.  Those are the rookie and sophomore numbers for Randy Johnson.  These two aren’t the same player, but A) Randy is the player Chapman is most compared to B) Aroldis is a wild, nasty lefty C) There’s no C.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I do think Aroldis in the bullpen has a better chance of success.  When he finally moves into the rotation, I’m going to preach caution.

Freddie Freeman – I’ve been pretty down on Freeman, in the non-sexual way, since I wrote his post back in November.  He’s just a’ight in NL-Only leagues.  For clarification purposes, “just a’ight” is less than “a’ight” and way below “a’ight a’ight.”

Danny Espinosa – Anyone that has read this site for any extended period of time knows I love to punt middle infield and go for upside.  Espinosa has already found his way on multiple teams and I’m not done drafting all my teams yet.

Mike Moustakas – Recently, I was doing research for a screenplay and I had to read some parenting books.  There’s this thing parents do called a stall tactic.  For instance, “Mommy, can we go to the park tomorrow?”  Then Mommy says, “We’ll see.”  They’re stalling on a decision.  This is bad.  So what does this mean for baseball?  Dayton Moore is a bad parent.  Let Moustakas go to the park!

Desmond Jennings – Aroundin’ third, and headed for home, it’s a brown-eyed handsome man and it’s Johnny Damon.  In keepers, I’d still pursue Jennings, but, without injuries, we might not see Jennings in any real capacity until next year.

Dustin Ackley – It’s looking like the Mariners may give Ackley a shot to play 2nd base right out of the gate.  An upside MI flyer?  Yes, please and thank you.  Then I look at Ackley’s minor league numbers and think, “Um, whatever.”  Everyone thinks Ackley is going to grow into a force.  Key words here are “going to grow.”  In 2011, you’re going to get numbers that are fairly similar to Crapolanco.  BTW, there’s an announcement coming on Monday.  Batten down your hatches!  Or is it button?