Fantasy Baseball Advice

A few StU posts back I was asked to belabor the highly touted A’s farm system. With all fairness to the commenter, I was under the impression that the A’s had all their top arms up, and hitters too – let’s be honest they cannot hit water if it was raining out. After much deliberation, James Simmons was the most interesting starting pitcher (they have a guy named Michael Inoa, who I couldn’t find much about, but he is a Cuban signing. Also, Henry Rodriguez is a high velocity arm in the bullpen, but is further away); and Chris Carter was an intriguing prospect. Sure I could have written about Aaron Cunningham or Adrian Cardenas, but that would be cheating and you know it. Enjoy!

A quick reminder how the Cube Ratings work.

James Simmons | SP | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 9/29/86 | 6-3 | 205 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #10 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (100) | K-Rating (78) | Efficiency (97)

There is tremendous pitching depth in the A’s farm system, but much of it has reached the majors already this year (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman, and Andrew Bailey) so Simmons is reaching a bit deep for difference makers this year or possibly even next year. However, he is ranked higher than Bailey (#23) or Outman (#12), meaning he has some talent.

Simmons was considered one of the most advanced pitchers in the 2007 draft when he was drafted out of college, but by advanced they meant great control of his fastball and change-up. His breaking pitches are, um, to put it nicely – JUNK! On the bright side, his change-up was voted the best in the system by team management. His fastball sits between 88 to 92 mph, topping out at 94 with a bit of movement and excellent control. Obviously, the change-up is his go-to pitch and he has stellar feel for it too. The breaking pitch of choice (since he hasn’t really developed either curve/slider) is still lacking any consistency. So what kind of numbers has he posted so far:

07 (AA): 6.9 K/9 | 2.43 BB/9 | 29 2/3 IP | .61 HR/9 | .359 BABIP | 3.94/3.44 ERA/FIP | 1.48 WHIP
08 (AA): 7.94 K/9 | 2.12 BB/9 | 136 IP | .73HR/9 | .345 BABIP | 3.51/3.26 ERA/FIP | 1.34 WHIP
09 (AAA): 5.75 K/9 | 3.45 BB/9 | 101 2/3 IP | .71 HR/9 | .326 BABIP | 5.75/4.21 ERA/FIP | 1.51 WHIP

Nothing spectacular. Out of college, the A’s sent him straight to AA, and he only had a brief stint before the season was over. In 2008, he proved that he deserved a promotion to AAA. Not a high strikeout pitcher, he must rely on that nice control he is touted for. However, 2009 has been awful for him. He lost over 2 k/9 and added a walk per nine innings. I am venturing to say that his is a bit over his head. Unless he can pick his K-rate back up and remove a walk from that BB/9 stat, he has little going for him as a major league starter. At best, he looks like a back of the rotation starter who can eat some innings for the A’s.

The A’s rely heavily on their farm, and Simmons is expected to contribute to their future plans. He was drafted earlier (first round) than his talent level by about two rounds. Needless to say, there is still plenty of time for him to rebound back to his AA numbers by the end of this year, or next. He is still only 22 (soon 23!).  Keep an eye on him though, the A’s always are able to find useful innings out of their young prospects.

Chris Carter | 1B/DH | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 12/18/86 | 6-4 | 210 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #6 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (98) | Speed (15) | Contact (14) | Patience (78)

Other than having an extremely deceitful name (footballer; I am a die-hard Minnesota Vikings fan) and the same name as another Red Sox player, this Carter has something that those do not – a jaw dropping power swing! Remember last week when I brought up Mike Stanton, well we have found the second bash brother. He was part of two relatively large trades two years ago – the Carlos Quentin from Arizona to Chicago White Sox, and the Dan Haren from the A’s to the D-Backs (both in the same winter too). Needless to say, he is mighty talented. Just look at what he has accomplished so far:

07 CHW (A): .288/.382/.512 | .224 ISO | .332 BABIP | 459 AB | 24 HR | 24 K% | 12.7 BB%
08 A’s (A+): .259/.361/.569 | .310 ISO | .296 BABIP | 506 AB | 39 HR | 30.8 K% | 13.2 BB%
09 (AA): .305/.407/.515 | .210 ISO | .374 BABIP | 377 AB | 16 HR | 25.5 K% | 14.3 BB%

(He played in 2006, but his stats aren’t quite relevant enough for consideration, and truly just clog up the screen to make it look more complicated.)

Great ISO (that power he displays goes to all fields), nice slash lines, stellar patiences, and continuing refinement of his game. The K-rate is a bit scary, but he still reaches base at a nice clip thanks to impressive plate discipline. According to team player development personnel, because of his power swing he is extremely susceptible to breaking pitches, and there is a few large holes in his swing. The “high” batting averages should fall off into the .250 to .260 level as he progresses through he minors (one does not strikeout that often and still hit for a high average, sans a high BABIP). What is nice to see is that he has increased his walk rate with each passing year. Lets hope that continues.

He is more athletic than his body may seem, but he doesn’t have great defense. Let’s just say he is like Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel – he could make a nice soccer player for all the balls he boots. This may be a concern if he was in the National League, but alas, for once a defensively-challenged masher is in the American League. Like I said, he is athletic, but not fast, or known to be a base stealer. However, this year he has 11, which is near his career total. Not sure where this came from, but if he keeps this up it would be a pleasant addition to his already star laden future. He may not be Ryan Howard, but a Carlos Pena may be in the line (a Pena that actually gets a chance before bouncing around for a few years).

Look for Carter to get a call up this year and play an intriguing role in spring training next year. He could do something like Pablo Sandoval did/is doing this year. I would follow Carter as much as Stanton or other big boppers like Justin Smoak (even a Chris “K” Davis).

Back in early November, I said, “Gregg, Cubs Closer?”  Well, remove the question mark and call me Nostradumbass.  It’s not surprising at all to me that Marmol’s not going to be the closer to start the season.  There’s no reason in debating whether Piniella made the right decision.  Of course he didn’t.  Joking.  There’s points for both sides.  As I said the other day, do you wanna lose the game in the 8th or the 9th?  Either way, all you should concern yourself with is who is getting the saves.  The pickle here is Marmol is actually worth owning even if he only gets 5-10 saves all year.  So if you drafted Marmol, I’d hold him just to pad your pitching stats.  If you have Gregg, nice late pick in your draft.  You probably just fell into 35 saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Says he’s the closer.  And so it is.  You know what?  Every single one of you sitting around reading this blog for the last month could’ve stepped up and said you’d be the closer for the Mariners.  But what did you do?  You watered down the ketchup, made sure everyone’s coffee was hot and passive-aggressively stuck broken glass under your eighteen-year-old boss’s car tires.  You had to know with the top option being Miguel Batista that the job could’ve been yours.  Now march into your job and tell them you’re the new fry cook.  You got hot oil skillz!  Morrow’ll be fine as the closer if he can get/stay healthy.  Not sure what they’re going to do with Chad Cordero.  Maybe they can turn him into the starter Morrow should’ve been.

Jeff Clement – In a disappointing move, Clement was sent down.  You know where he went wrong?  He should’ve told the Mariners he was their catcher.  Guess Mattel can sponsor that Kenji doll night now.  Mommy, why doesn’t Kenji have a….THAT’S HIS ATHLETIC SUPPORTER!

Carlos Villanueva – As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball forums, Villanueva will fill-in for Trevor Hoffman.  Is Villanueva the best guy for the job?  Who knows?  Doesn’t matter.  SAGNOF.   Ours is not to reason why, ours is to pickup up the replacement closer and hope he keeps the job, unless of course you have Hoffman too.  You got to remember to Handcuff the Hoff!

Brett Gardner – Named opening day center fielder for the Yanks.  Back in November, I sowed the Gardner.

Matt Lindstrom – Appears to be on track to open the season.  Unless you have a pressing need somewhere, I’d hold Nunez for now.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit a HR.  Sore shoulder better?  You make the call!  Or not.

Chris Carter – Might get a shot to be a reserve outfielder for the Sawx.  The Red Sox were missing that Sci-Fi edge in the outfield since Manny left.

Troy Glaus – Rehab from shoulder surgery isn’t going so well.  Word is he might not make it back in late April/early May after all.  Bet they are regretting that Rolen for Glaus trade now!

Joe Mauer – Expected to miss the first month of the season.  The bad back must be from carrying the dwindling pennant hopes of Twins fans.  Let’s hope Liriano doesn’t strain his elbow picking up some of the slack.

Justin Duchscherer – Having elbow surgery.  Supposed to be out a month.  I forget what I said and I don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I pegged him for 5 starts this year.  Duchscherer’s elbow problems may have been exacerbated by autograph-seeking fans this spring.  You gotta stop at J.D., man!

Kelvim Escobar – I keep mentioning this guy, but in the last league I drafted I was able to snag him with like the 345th pick.  Um, he should be going before that.  When healthy (which he’s nearing), he’s good.

Chris Young – It’s a hard knock life being a 6′10″ pitcher.  More strain in throwing the ball down, bigger target to comebackers, lack of selection in Big & Tall shops, etc.  He’s been rather bad in Spring Training.  Perhaps it’s time to recognize that a pitcher can only go so far with a sub-90 MPH fastball and a unique propensity for fly ball outs.  Hopefully, he’ll come around and be solid, at least in Petco.

Mark Teahen – A positive reflection of the Royal roster is that there are less open spots to stash the mediocrity of Mark Teahen.  Last stop – 2nd base!  From a fantasy perspective, that’s not half bad.  Just 40% bad.

John Smoltz – He was due back June 1st but he’s ahead of schedule.  Now they are saying perhaps mid-May.  If you’ve got 2 DL slots in your league, might as well stash him in one.

Taylor Teagarden – Officially backing up Salty.  I think he can still get 300 ABs and contribute.  When asked why Saltamacchia over Teagarden, Texas brass explained, “Salty’s name goes to 12!”

Jeremy Guthrie – Opening Day starter for the Orioles.  Now if they can figure out a way for it to rain four out of five days, they should be fine.

Dontrelle Willis – On DL with anxiety disorder.  He’s been Greinke’d!  Maybe he just needs a Miguel Olivo hug.  Maybe he’ll go the Ankiel route.  You know, Willis was a very good hitter in the NL.  There’s got to be a Razzball glossary term for a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body.  How about… Redesignated Hitters.

Lots of good news coming out about Peavy’s rehab. He said, “I feel good. Could probably take three Pujols line drives off the noggin’.” He wasn’t himself to start the year and then he revealed he had an arm issue. I think Peavy’s as good as Santana if not better when healthy. You won’t find a bigger fan of Peavy than me, but pitchers with arm issues? Eh. He’s real close to a tossup between Buy and Sell to me. What convinced me on Sell? I wrote Buy or Sell on the wall of my condo, then my pet unicorn stabbed Sell with her horn. (While getting sparkle dust all over my home office and setting my allergies into high gear. Also, and I don’t want to get preachy, but it so important to spay and neuter your unicorns and to buy them from reputable dealers. Unicorn mills are a problem and only “You A Can” help. But I digress.) I see Peavy pitching well for a start or three because he’s rested now, but within a month or two he’s going to be sore again and need another break and/or DL stint.  I know this is probably the last thing an owner of Peavy wants to hear, but I’m just trying to be conservative. I’m not proposing you sell him for anything less than his worth, but I am saying you sell him. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

Psyche! (Not the TV show.) Before I get into this week’s Buy and Sell, I wanted to let you know that we have a huge announcement coming this Sunday night and I just wanted to prep people now. So if you need to take heart pills for big announcements, you’ve been warned. (BTW, we’re not selling out or welcoming any new bloggers into the mix. We’re not joining any “Network.” Razzball won’t suddenly start writing about antiquing (we’ll ween you into that). We will not start charging money to read this shizz. We’re not changing anything really, so chillax. All we’re doing is… Well, you’ll see. Let’s just say I’m giddy for all of you to know.)

BUY

Ty Wiggington – Only three home runs thus far. He could get to 20 with 2nd base eligibility, how’s that for a happy ending in Ty-Land?

Ryan Doumit – If you’re still playing the catcher shuffle, Doumit’s coming back. For what it’s worth, my unicorn is a big fan of Doumit.

Micah Owings – Not as terrific as he was, but he’s still striking out three times as many as he walks. Waivers I say, he no belong.

Chone Figgins – He’s due back soon. Sure, it took him way too long to come back the first time, but he can still be had for cheap because his owners (if there are any left) are fed up with him. Unlike Furcal (who we’ll get to), Figgins seems to run fine when he comes back from extended absences.

Jose Contreras – Don’t look now, but Contreras is on a crazy good streak. Last night’s 7 IP, 1 ER win against the Royals comes on the heels of a 3-1 May where he had a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 41 IP. On a more jaded note, those starts included SEA, TOR, and LAA (twice). And his K/BB was 25/12. So we upgrade him from ‘don’t own’ to ’stream starter.’ Hopefully he doesn’t quickly turn into a Cleveland Streamer.

Justin Masterson – He’s Jamaican and his next start is against the Mariners. High Times gives him their Smoking Blunt Seal of Approval™. (BTW, from the file of weird stats (Sorry, if this is your turf, Jayson Stark), the Mariners have struckout less than every other team. They also have walked the second least amount of times. Little League Coach of struggling team, “That’s it, just put it in play,” as he watches someone else groundout to 2nd base.)

Josh Anderson – Two steals in 10 ABs. He’s playing at least for the next two weeks while Kotsay mends. Anderson can steal 8 bases in the next two weeks.

Chris Carter – From the man that brought you Cancer Man, now comes a lefty slugger that should get some opportunities against righties while Papi mends. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues.

Francisco Liriano – Probably will be back in late June, so depending on how aggressive your league is, you should grab him soon if you need a starter. Will he be the Liriano of old? No, not yet, but I’d grab him just to see if he’s still got it (which means, punch the wall to turn on the jukebox. Ayyyy…).

SELL

Jorge Posada – He’s back, but he needs labrum surgery and the Yanks are carrying three catchers because of their lack of faith in Posada. If you can trade Posada to someone for a piece you’re lacking, do it and grab Olivo (7 home runs and 23 RBIs in 127 at-bats) off waivers.

Travis Hafner – He’s swinging a bat again. Every bit of good news that comes out of the Pronk camp is an opportunity to sell him. Push that shizz as well as you can. For example, this is you talking to a leaguemate, “Yeah, he’s swinging a bat on his way to recovery! He was predicted to hit 30+ home runs this year, so he’s going to hit like 4 HRs every week for two months! Matter of fact, I just convinced myself not to trade Hafner! Okay, I’ll take Marmol for him.” (BTW, make sure you put exclamations on every sentence, except the one where you ask for a player. Like the The Quadratics sang, “That’s like taking candy from a baby…”)

Taipei Slinklo – I could have put any top closer here. If you’re sitting on a nine or ten in saves and your offense or starters are hurting, shame on you. Trade Taipei Slinklo? Pho sho!

Carlos Pena – I’d trade this schmohawk too, even if you’re selling low. I see him on his way, like Heidi Montag, to new bust territory.

Rafael Furcal – After taking five months last year to recover from an ankle injury and taking almost a month longer than he was supposed to for a back issue, makes me start to think he’s eating over at Nomar’s house too much. I’d try and move Furcal, he’s becoming way too brittle.

Radhames Liz – Not sure how the Orioles found another Daniel Cabrera, but they did. No wonder Leo Mazzone got out of Baltimore. (BTW, was it Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux or was it Mazzone? Part of me thinks Mazzone’s only real genius was figuring out if you rock back and forth on the bench people will think you’re some kind of Rainman savant. The other part of me feels like it’s blasphemous to even talk bad about Mazzone. Do you see how convincing that rocking is? You can’t even question it without feeling guilt. Okay, homework assignment, when your boss walks by your cubicle, rock back and forth then report to Razzball Nation your findings.)