Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jason Bourgeois was traded to Royals with Humberto Quintero.  Fun fact:  Did you know Humberto Quintero weighs exactly a quarter more than Humberto Quadtero?  When the trade was announced, Bourgeois said he’d once and for all bring down the tyrannical rule of the Royals and restore a society where Lorenzo Cain lost 75 to 100 at-bats and The Guido Playing 2nd Base lost 100 at-bats.  Bourgeois insists that a free market system for steals is essential to their success.  Then Bourgeois doffed his powdered wig and asked Yuniesky Betancourt to bring him some unpasteurized cheese.  Chop, chop, Piss Boy!  This trade doesn’t flat out kill Cain…Sugar!’s value.  It sure doesn’t help it.  As I mentioned to someone in the comments right after this trade went down, Cain…Sugar! needs to perform well in April to be worth the draft gamble and if he performs well, then he’ll play and Bourgeois will see at-bats at 2nd or all over the field.  I don’t think Bourgeois is worth a grab in mixed leagues yet, but he can quickly get on radars because of his ability to steal.  SAGNOF!  If you were looking at The Guido Playing 2nd Base for a late round flyer, he’s still worth it too.  He’s in the similar predicament as Cain…Sugar!.  If Giavotella hits in April, he’ll get playing time.  If he didn’t hit, you’d drop him with or without Bourgeois.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  It’s fine to drop him in all leagues, except leagues that have a category for damaged ulnar collateral ligaments.  In that league, you’ve got an early lead!  Go pick up Brandon Webb in case he latches on with a team.  There’s still been no clarity on the Royals closing shituation.  Holland’s better, Broxton has experience, Crow doesn’t seem likely in front of either guy.  I’m going with Holland first, and both of them in some leagues where I feel light on saves.

Derek Jeter – Has a minor calf injury.  If he had a major calf injury, I’d say, “Don’t have a cow, man!”  And we’d laugh.  Oh, would we laugh.  You and I.  Are you gonna finish that peach pie?  You know Grey likes peach pie?  Jeter should return by Friday.

Nick Swisher – Left a game with groin tightness.  In related news, A-Rod gets groin tightness when he looks at Jeter.

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now it’s being reported that Bard is headed back to the bullpen.  I’d say I told you so… Well, I just kinda did.

Dontrelle Willis – Orioles signed Willis to a minor league deal.  He was always good with the bat; it’s not too late for him to become a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Braun – Has a groin injury that he blamed on FedEx.  He should be back in the next few days, assuming FedEx gets their shizz together!

Michael Morse – His lat strain may cause him to miss a few games at the start of the season.  I’m not concerned at this point.  If he misses a week in April, it’ll all be forgotten by May.  Or beep, beep, dot, dot, slash in Morse code.

Neftali Feliz – From the files of, “Actually interesting news if I didn’t tell you to not draft him anyway,” Feliz has shoulder issues.  A closer moving into the rotation + shoulder problems = Gummi Worms.  Shoot, I did that math wrong.  It was supposed to add up to “Stay away from at drafts.”

Chris Carpenter – Felt neck discomfort yesterday.  Now seems all but certain that he’ll start the year on the DL.  Carpenter’s fans feel like it’s a rainy day or Monday.

Kyle Lohse – Will start Opening Day for the Cardinals.  Hey, Cards fans, there’s still a chance to go 161-1!

Hisashi Iwakuma – Will start the year in the bullpen.  M’s rotation will be Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood.  Hey, M’s fans, there’s still a chance to go 20-142!  On a side note, Rudy came up with a Mariner version of the Hodgepadre for our glossary… A Marginer.  A Marginer is any mediocre pitcher on the Mariners that’s worth owning when they start in Seattle.  Similar to Hodgepadre.  Most Marginers are Homeschoolers.  Not to be confused with ex-Mariner closer Mike Schooler.

David Wright – Word out of Port St. Lucie is, doesn’t Port St. Lucie sound like an after-dinner drink?  Also, Wright could play this weekend.  I don’t think he’s out of the woods yet.  And I’m not sure if the breadcrumb trail out of the woods is gonna lead to a 60-day DL stint or 140+ games played with weak power because he’ll be nursing an injury, but I’m not excited about either scenario.

Johan Santana – Only gave up one run in six innings, but whatever with that.  I ignore spring stats, but what I’d focus on is he was only in the high-80′s with his fastball.  That wouldn’t even win a SpongeBob at the local carnival.  I still have a hard time recommending him as a late draft gamble.  I think this year’s best case scenario is Johan throws 170 IP and gets about 140 Ks and around a 3.50 ERA.  Basically, you’re hoping for Vogelsong/Mike Leake-type projections.

Orlando Hudson – You shouldn’t even be drafting O-Dog, but if you were thinking about it, he’s having groin problems.  Speaking of groins, Wang’s gonna miss over a month.  (BTW, if this is your first day reading Razzball, we’re not always this fascinated with groins.  Not that we have anything against them… I mean, we’d have something against them if the situation presented itself… Okay, moving on…)

Shaun Marcum – Won’t miss any time in the rotation coming out of the gate because of his previously inflammed shoulder. To summarize in a pithy fashion, Marcum down to start.

Chris Perez – Threw batting practice yesterday and will be more than ready for Opening Day.  You know who this makes happy?  Chris Perez’s son.

Mike Adams – Joe Nathan has looked like a beast this spring.  I’m not using “like a beast” in some cool, hip phrasing.  Do I seem cool or hip to you?  I have a mustache, for crikey’s sake!  I mean, he’s looked like a beast as Mary Shelley would’ve liked that phrase used.  If you heard the podcast yesterday, you know this already.  By early summer, Nathan’s headed for the Disgraceful List and Adams will be the closer.  I’d be more surprised if it happened later than early summer than early early summer.  Glad I clarified that!

Carlos Marmol – Left a game with a hand cramp, but the MRI showed no nerve damage.  To get rid of his cramps, the doctor told him to eat a pint of ice cream and watch Sex and the City reruns.

Sometimes when you take the fielding coach a little too literal, this is what happens.  Miguel Cabrera came face to face with his fielding fears and a baseball and the baseball won.  A sharp grounder shattered his sunglasses, leaving his right eye a bloody mess.  The good news for Miggy, the doctor prescribed a 15 ounce porterhouse.  No word if Miggy put it on his eye with or without A1 Steak Sauce.  Just thought of something.  Since the 2012 All-Star Game is in Kansas City, I’m sure George Brett will throw out the first pitch.  You thought he was mad during the Pine Tar Game, wait until he sees Miggy and Hanley playing 3rd.  From early reports, it sounds like Miggy will be fine, but Tigers won’t release Miggy’s face X-rays until after this posts on Tuesday, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed.  An&yswy, hiacte’s– Sorry, I’ll cross my fingers after I’m done with the post.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Has UCL damage, which isn’t related to damage caused by a drunk UL Washington.  Or as Van Morrison would say, “His elbow doesn’t feel good.  His elbow doesn’t feel right.  His name is Soria.  S-O-R-I-A… And his name is Soria… S-O-R-I-A…”  There was talk that Soria should’ve been traded a few years ago.  I tend to agree, you don’t have a $12 salad if you can’t make your rent, but that’s neither here nor there now.  Some reports are saying Broxton will fill in as the closer.  I think Holland will close in Soria’s stead.  If you’re desperate for saves, I’d grab both of them.  At this point, it’s not clear who will take over the role.  I think it’s only about a 55% chance for Holland to be the closer, so you better grab an umbrella.

Chase Utley – Phils are reporting that he won’t be ready for Opening Day.  Well, they’re saying doubtful, but I’m saying he won’t be ready.  He has lingering pain in his knee and hasn’t had one at-bat all spring.  If you already drafted Utley, then you had to know this was gonna happen.  Chase’s knee hit every branch on the way down the Utley tree.  Or maybe his knee wore out hoisting strippers against a wall.  If you haven’t already drafted Utley, I’d push him down a few rounds.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Mariners released Kuo after he gave up 14 runs in 6 2/3 IP.  Guess the M’s weren’t happy with the *pinkie to mouth* status Kuo.  This is the second time Kuo has battled the yips.  Maybe it’s in honor of Yip Yip, the cartoon Taiwanese dog that likes to pickle his milk bones.

Carl Crawford – Yesterday, he took 20 swings off a tee.  The day before, 10 swings.  By June, the Red Sox are gonna have a portable fan.

Corey Hart – Could play as soon as Friday in a minor league game.  No word on whether or not Corey Hart will be wearing sunglasses.

Michael Brantley – Left the game for “precautionary reasons.”  He’s listed as “day-to-day.”  He should be back in “a few days.”  The preceding was brought to you by Zagat.

Jarrod Parker – Was sent down to the minors for a black man’s first name.  That’s some cold sheeeeeeeeeet!  We’ll probably be seeing Parker in a few months once Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey, with his loud, piercing voice and penchant for roasting opposing players, overstay their welcome.

Brad Peacock – Things aren’t looking good for my sleeper pickock.  Hoping he still makes the rotation, but at the moment it’s looking like a long shot.  He’s a top fifty prospect and breezed through Double and Triple-A last year, so I’d hold tight for the time being.  Though I am fully expecting the ax to fall on him.  Sad emoticon.

Yoenis Cespedes – Will be the A’s starting center fielder to start the season.  No word on whether Yoenis’s brothers, Nick and Joe, will travel to Japan to watch him play in the opener.

Gregor Blanco – Word is it would take a “cataclysmic event to keep” Blanco off the Giants roster.  Like Bochy finding a hat that fits him at Lids.

Rich Hill – Talk about a name from the past.  Red Sox are saying he may get in a game this month.  You know what I always liked about Rich Hill?  The Sniglets.

Travis Wood – Was shelled yesterday.  Or to put it to you all punny like, Wood was knocked around.  After the Cubs said Samardzija was set for the rotation, this isn’t great news for Wood.  Or Wood’s going limp, if you will.

Jordan Schafer – Due to a sprained hand, Schafer won’t be back into action until Thursday.  Need to put your Zimmermania on hold for now.

Skip Schumaker – Sticking with the newly established theme of guys that sound Jewish but aren’t, Schumaker has an oblique tear.  Vague!  In related news, Allen Craig’s rehab has been progressing well.  Here’s Oregon Nut Cups’ Allen Craig fantasy.  He wrote it while chasing the dragon.

Chris Carpenter – May make his spring training debut this weekend, so he might still be back for Opening Day.  I’m still no fan; not in the Carl Crawford sense either.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Was optioned to the Rochester Red Wings, which will soften the blow since that sounds like a Japanese baseball team name.

Vladimir Guerrero – Sounds like he might play in Japan.  If someone signs him, that’ll say something since Japanese teams are limited to only one non-native player with an L in their name.  While over there, maybe he can record an album, “Live at Vladokan.”

Chris Carpenter has a bulging disc.  I once had a bulging disc.  I had my Low End Theory disc in my car radio and I tried to jam in my Kool Moe Dee CD… *checking my notes*  Oh, Carpenter has a bulging disc in his neck.  Well, he should go see Dr. Frankenstein.  Carpenter says he can’t throw yet, but he’s dealt with this issue before.  Cards are starting to think about a Plan B.  I never liked Plan A.  A 36-year-old who had a 4.47 ERA until the middle of June last year?  You should totally draft him!  He sounds promising!  Carp, or Crap if you’re kinda dyslexic, would move down my rankings with this news, if I didn’t already have him really low in my rankings because I’m always cautious of aging starters who tend to break down.  Also, I’m psychic.  On a related note, you may want to bring in the trash bins on Wednesday night from three to four AM, there’s gonna be possums.   Cust kayin’.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into today’s roundup, we announced our podcast yesterday.  Today, you can subscribe to it at iTunes.  This message was brought to you by Phoenix University, “We don’t look good unless you look good.  Or is it well?”  Anyway, here’s the roundup:

Giancarlo Stanton – It’s sure been a pain changing Mike to Giancarlo on all of my Trapper Keepers.  You know what else is a pain?  Giancarlo’s wrist.  Worst Segue Ever, “Wow, I’ve heard some bad segues before, but that takes the cake.”  Sorry, Worse Segue Ever.  WSE, “Don’t apologize to me, apologize to your readers.”  You know you’re kinda making the segue worse by drawing attention to it.  WSE, “Hence my name.”  Giancarlo was hit on the wrist by a pitch the other day, but X-rays were negative, which is oddly enough a positive.  Giancarlo should take a day or two more to recoup, but should be fine going forward.  If you want to send him flowers, send them to me.  I’m parked outside his condo.  In the bushes.  What, I’m just making sure he’s safe.

Logan Morrison – Having soreness in his knee that was surgically-repaired.  As of right now, it’s nothing to worry about.  Or as Logan Morrison would say on Twitter — #firstworldproblems

Brian Fuentes – The battle for the A’s closer and the 22 saves that comes with the gig is heating up.  Jerry “The Beav” Blevins is the only possible left-hander behind Fuentes.  So there’s some speculation that if The Beav gets cut, then Fuentes may stay in setup.  But if The Beav gets into the bullpen that will make it easier to hand the closer job to Fuentes.  May I say from owning Fuentes in past years, nothing is easy about Fuentes closing.  Worst Segue Ever, “Okay, that’s just another–”  You know, that’s enough, WSE.  WSE, “Hey, do what you have to do.”  Here’s what I’ll say on the closing shituation in Oakland, I think Balfour will make a better closer (marginally), but Fuentes will get the job.  Either way, in almost all leagues (except very shallow ones), I’d draft both guys and hope the one I drafted comes out with the job.

Yoenis Cespedes – Homered in his first spring game.  I now have Yoenis in two leagues, and I’m getting him in more leagues if he continues to fall far down in drafts.  I have Yoenis’s projections down for 65/20/80/.250/12.  That’s a not-that-poor-man’s Adam Jones.  I’d take that way before the 200th or so place ESPN and Yahoo have him ranked.  Frequent commenter, chata, made a good call when he said Yoenis looked like Gary Sheffield when he homered.  Somewhere, Sheffield is angrily wagging his trademark infringement lawsuit papers.

Jim Johnson – Buck Showalter said he hasn’t named Johnson the closer yet.  Kevin Gregg’s family said, “Please, we can’t handle anymore death threats.”  Matt Lindstrom is also in the O’s possible closerousel.  I think Johnson ends up winning the job, but in the mean’s while I would draft all three in deep leagues, or places you need saves.

Alfonso Soriano – Hit his 4th homer of the spring.  I have a mantra:  Don’t Believe Spring Training Stats — DBSTS, for those that like to acronymize shizz. But, and this is a small but like what Leyland throws away every seven to ten minutes, vets tend to have good beginnings to their season then tire.  Soriano’s April stats last year:  10 homers.

Eric Hosmer – Left Monday’s game after landing awkwardly on his shoulder.  Doctors said he was F-I-N-E, then they did the Bell Biv Devoe dance where you kick heels with the guy across from you.

Mike Moustakas – Left the game after being hit with a pitch in his right knee.  Royals are saying it’s simply a bruise and he’ll be good to go.  David Glass, Royals owner and former CEO of Wal-Mart, said he would not pay for any time missed.

Zack Cozart – He’s showing no signs of his injury from last year.  Have I mentioned I want Cozart in every league?  Oh, well, consider this yet another notice.  You’ve been noticed!

Jesus Montero – I want to throw a warning out there that there will be a lot of Jesus Montero updates this year.  We’ve already drafted him in three out of four leagues.  Bee tee dubya, he’s hitting .389.  But spring stats mean nothing.  But II, The Return of But:  He’s hitting .389!

David Wright – Received an anti-inflammatory injection yesterday for discomfort that I think he’s been feeling for the last three years.  I’m only half joking.  I don’t want to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but I’m starting to get worried.  The Mets doctors’ track record with getting players back on the field is about the same as yours with that girl who used to live next door to you.

Kendrys Morales – He ran the bases for two straight days.  Talk about going back to the base-ics!  Sorry, I’ll never say that again.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper is hinting at retirement.  His retirement plans include him reuniting with his oblique that abandoned him back in 2004.

David Robertson – Fell down some stairs the other day, but he played catch yesterday and he’s good to go.  He can remove his walking boot.  On a related note, Miguel Cabrera’s nickname in the field is The Walking Boot.

Fausto Carmona – Charges against him for lying about his name have been dropped.  Charges against him for being a terrible pitcher are still undergoing investigation.

The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page.  Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty.  So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three.  Math’s been berry, berry good to me!  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Anibal.  I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169.  That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012.  In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors.  He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1.  To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters.  Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there.  I can only give so much love.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.40/1.18/190

22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter.  Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3.  If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own.  You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks.  I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later.  As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year.  Yes, the Nats will be good.  2012 Projections:  14-6/3.25/1.15/170

23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays.  I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95.  Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier?  Nope.  Can he be as productive?  Maybe more so.  I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza.  Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.40/1.25/190

24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking.  Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger!  Anibal was that good last year?  He (she?) was!  His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career.  Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year?  I guess, but why?  He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries.  I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name.  I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come.  I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am.  He is the Marlins’ ace.  Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on!  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.24/190

25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hanson.  I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.”  Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not.  Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson.  Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that.  Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it.  I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training.  Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013.  For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson.  2012 Projections:  10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP

26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson.  He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year.  If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20.  Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there.  He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year.  Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid.  Will he shat the bed?  I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it.  He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price.  And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from.  If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.12/180

27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy.  It’s sexy and I know it.  2012 Projections:  14-7/3.60/1.10/190

28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me.  One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA.  What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher.  What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.60/1.20/185

29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier.  He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero.  Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80.  Romero — what a joker!  His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12.  Um, they’re okay.  Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy.  Sorry, RR Cool Jay.  2012 Projections:  13-12/3.75/1.20/170

30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis.  Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs.  What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy).  Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields.   2012 Projections:  13-11/3.70/1.25/190

31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson.  Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year.  I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP

32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Luebke.  I call this tier, “Yummo!”  I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy.  I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay.  As for Friedman saying Moore is going to get a full season, I’ll believe it when I see it.  ZiPS is giving him 140 IP, others are giving him 160… I can’t bring myself to go above 150.  He still doesn’t have a full season under his belt yet in the majors.  Too many things can go wrong.  I will say if I gave him 180 IP, I’d raise the ERA projections about .20, WHIP about .02, Wins (3) and Ks (20).  2012 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings

33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy.  There’s lots of love in that post.  If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.70/1.30/195

34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance.  I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties).  Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck.  I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year.  If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010.  The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.27/190

35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game?  What a dog-faced fool!  March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit!  All of you!”  Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino.  March Grey, “Hoo-ah!”  Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year.  If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.17/160

36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013.  If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot.  If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands.  Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions.  But what fun is that?  (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections.  Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.)  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings

37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post.  A real snoozer in the inverse.  2012 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.28/210

38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings.  I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription.  Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02.  You need more?  You shouldn’t.  But fine, for you anything!  He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors.  He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco.  When I say giddy, you say up.  Giddy… Up!  Giddy… Up!  P. Diddy… Up!  Fooled you.  2012 Projections:  9-8/3.25/1.09/170

39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter.  His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid.  My dislike is unwarranted, basically.  Right?  Or not right?  He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings.  Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either.  We can be friends.  Wait by your phone, I’ll call you.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.25/165

40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene.  Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue.  We’re gonna take a break this year.  His peripherals last year were a mess.  6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats.   2012 Projections:  11-6/3.80/1.25/130

Chicago Cubs 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (16) | 2010 (14) | 2009 (27) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [71-91] NL Central

AAA: [66-77] Pacific Coast League – Iowa

AA: [83-57] Southern League – Tennessee

A+: [76-61] Florida State League – Daytona

A: [60-79] Midwest League – Peoria

A(ss): [36-40] Northwest League – Boise

The Run Down

The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson.  A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors.  Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz.  And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.

Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo.   The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development.  They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making.  They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within.  They seem to be heading in the right direction.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox

Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Darwin Barney (2B); Tony Campana (OF)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Brett Jackson | OF:

Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield.  Grey previews Jackson here.  It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content.  I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson.  That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.

Anthony Rizzo | 1B:

Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here.  Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates.  Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo.  But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now.  Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa.  Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime.  I expect Rizzo up by midseason.

Welington Castillo | C:

There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012.  .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL.  Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur.  He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.

Pitchers

Rafael Dolis | RHP – RP:

I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol.  That is, if he isn’t already.  And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable.  He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.

Chris Carpenter | RHP – RP:

Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man.  When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard.  Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider.  He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Josh Vitters | 3B/1B:

Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448.  But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3^rd overall pick in 2007.  At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.

Pitchers

Trey McNutt | RHP – SP:

McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012.  For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011).  A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however.  If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.

Jay Jackson | RHP – SP:

Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith.  An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching.  Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.