Fantasy Baseball Advice

And we have our first Disgraceful List of the season and the season hasn’t even started yet (really).  I hate to say I told you so, so (stutterer!) instead, I’ll just quote the relevant text from earlier this preseason, “(Michael Pineda) is young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Zadow!  I feel like I’ve exorcised a demon when I tell you to avoid someone and they bust.  (Oh, and Rudy told you to avoid him too at his risky pitchers post.)  It makes me feel so good.  Schadenfreude!  Can you feel my excitement?  You know those struggling artists from touristy beach towns that draw caricatures in coal?  I’m gonna hire one of them and one of those skywriting airplanes and have them draw a giant mustache in the sky above your house.  I might also have the pilot wear a burlap sack.  Why?  Cause it’s a crazy person mocking you, that makes it even worse!  Now, if you ignored our advice and drafted him, this was actually the best case scenario, because now you can DL him, before it looked like you were just gonna have to watch him in the minors while on your bench.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Andrew Bailey – Even with bad news, the Red Sox won’t accept being upstaged by the Yankees.  Bailey hurts thumb, gives fantasy owners the finger.  The injury could force him to the DL to start the season.  Oh, won’t you stay healthy Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey?  “Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.”  Hey, Bailey, throw already!”  That’s me quoting me from last year!  It’s same shizz different day/month/year with Bailey.  It was announced that the Sawx would turn to Aceves first if (when?) Bailey hits the DL.  Then Bobby Valentine made a wrap sandwich, because he invented them and likes to talk about that.

Daniel Bard – Ended up being named the Sawx’s fifth stahter as he was Bard from the bullpen.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’d be very cautious about trusting him.  He’s a bit allergic to throwing strikes and by the fifth inning Valentine may bee pollen him.  Take it, Highlights Magazine, it’s yours!

Juan Francisco – Was traded to the Braves to “temporarily” fill-in for Glass Chipper.  In the offseason, I said I wanted to take off my Zubaz and wear all the Reds rookies (Cozart, Francisco and Mesoraco) as pants.  Then I went caca-cuckoo for Cozart and Mesoraco for the next three months, but left Francisco alone because Dusty wasn’t going to play him.  Well, guess what, over-the-Internet friend, Francisco just got himself some playing time!  He has power to spare.  Last year, he hit a ball out of The Great American Ball Park going about 500 feet.  He’s also seen very few pitches he doesn’t like.  If Chipper stays on his usual 180-day DL, and Francisco hits… Well, this won’t be the last time I talk about him.  He could hit 25+ homers.

Ted Lilly – Will start the year on the DL.  He could return to the Dodgers as soon as April 15th.  We’ll see if by then the Dodgers are meeting at half court and kissing the opposing players on the cheek prior to games.

Allen Craig – To the DL.  I wonder if he ever gets confused on government documents when he has to put his last name first.

Chris Carpenter – To the DL.  You can backdate this three weeks.  No word on its expiration date.  I’m guessing we’ll see him sometime in June for a start or two then the issue will resurface.

Troy Tulowitzki – X-rays came back clean after he was beaned on the elbow by his ex-teammate Ubaldo Jimenez, which Tulo claimed was intentional.  Sounds like they’re having a hard time putting behind them their *pinkie to mouth* Rockie relationship.

Wilin Rosario – 81, 97 and 91 aren’t the three highest IQs of Jersey Shore castmates.  It’s the number of games Ramon Hernadez has played the last three years.  Wilin hit 21 homers last year in Double-A and now he’s backing up Ramon.  In 2 catcher leagues, I’d go ahead and add him in the landmark case of sooner vs later.

Corey Hart – Should avoid the DL to start the year.  Never surrender, Corey Hart!

R.A. Dickey – After he was spiked on Saturday, Dickey needed two stitches, but Dickey was seen telling girls he needed 8 stitches.

Tim Stauffer – Has been nursing a mild triceps injury.  (Or is that tricep?  Is it just a onecep?)  Could bump him back a week or so before his first start.

Michael Morse – To the DL.  Dot, dot, damn.

Mike Trout – Was optioned to the minors.  Unless the Halos reacquire Kotchman and he gives the entire team mono, we’re not gonna see much of Trout until much later in the season.

Scott Baker – To the DL.  Baker said, “I’d love to start the home opener; it’s just not wise.”  Then Pringles dropped him from their endorsement contract.

Josh Hamilton – Has groin tightness and could sit out the rest of spring training so he can go when the season starts, then have this flare up again five or six more times during the season.  Sorry to use “flare up” and “groin” in the same sentence.

Jed Lowrie – Looks like he could start the year on the DL.  If Glass Chipper and Chase Utley had a baby, it would be Jed Lowrie.

Wade LeBlanc – Marlins optioned him to Triple-A.  He’s hoping to resurface playing a funnier version of himself.

Kyle Weiland – Earned a spot in the Astros rotation.  And what did you do this weekend, Eddie Vedder’s brother?!  Huh?!  Our prospect writer, Scott, wrote, “Weiland profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He had his chance at the big league level last year, where in five appearances he posted an ugly 6.55 FIP.  He throws a low 90′s fastball along with a cutter, a curve and a changeup.  I wouldn’t mind seeing him throw one of those fastballs at Grey’s head.”  Hey, I didn’t remember reading that!

Livan Hernandez – He was released by the Astros, then two hours later showed up at the Braves training complex, and signed on to be a long man/spot starter.  The Astros only train about 20 minutes from the Braves, but it took 2 hours?  Hmm, sounds like Livan drives about as fast as he throws.

Last year, the Buy/Sell brought you such brilliant ideas as “Grady Sizemore is gonna bounce back big time!” and “I don’t believe a concussion can knock a player out for a full year… Can I get a Morneau?!”  Buy/Sell, “You know, I don’t point all of your crappy suggestions… Vernon Wells as a sleeper?  2003 called and said it wants its sleeper back.  You’re lucky I even returned this year.  A.J. Mass was talking about buying me an acre of land in Kentucky and letting me run around with all of his stolen base draft picks.”  So, this is the first Buy/Sell of the season.  Every Friday there will be a new one.  Buy/Sell, “Not if we continue to get along like this.”  Right now Eric Thames is owned in 1.3% of ESPN leagues.  I guess I’m a one-point-three percenter because I just picked him up in one of my leagues.  Let’s see what we know for sure about Thames:  A) He’s the starting left fielder for a team that will score a lot of runs.  B) If Lind’s back continues to hurt him (I hope not, but being realistic) and Edwin Encarnacion goes back to being Encrapcion, then Thames could bat as high as cleanup.  C) There’s no C.  D) He hit 12 homers in 95 games last year.  E) He could steal 5 to 7 bases and, if he can steal 5 to 7 bases, he could steal 10 bases.  F)  See C.  G) He’s 25 years old.  H) I’m kinda stretching to get to Z, but I don’t think I’ll ever make it.  I) He had a great OBP in the minors.  J) He does strike out a lot though.  Hmm, that’s not a positive.  K-P) Power is a lot harder to find on waivers.  He’s got it.  Q) Bert.  R) I ranked Thames 57th for outfielders.  Above some schmohawks like Kubel, Revere, Span, Carlos Lee, etc.  S) Etc.  T) Etc.  U-W) Etc.  Y) Cause.  Z) Whew.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in 2012 fantasy baseball:

BUY

Lorenzo Cain – Let’s see, Carlos Quentin is owned in 38% of ESPN leagues and Cain is owned in 28%, but only 95% of teams have drafted already, but 60% of those public ESPN teams have already abandoned their team and joined a Yahoo league instead because ESPN is a piece of crap roster managing site…  I’m sure glad ESPN made it easy to find the Transactions Log for teams.  It’s much more important to have Referenda accessible, right?  More like Reeferenda, as in what they were smoking when they designed their fantasy site.   What does this have to do with Cain…Sugar!?  Nothing really, but I’ve talked about him enough, just pick him up.

Jose Tabata – He’s only owned in 11% of leagues and that’s actually dropped in the last week.  Did I miss something about him?  Why’s he being dropped? For s’s and g’s?  In that case, drop Denard Span for s’s and g’s and pick up Tabata.

Zack Cozart – I can’t imagine who’s reading this doesn’t own Cozart, so I’m writing this for everyone who’s not reading.  Hey, gooftard, go back to ESPN!

Chris Parmelee – Supposed to be the Twins starting first baseman.  This sounds crackers to me.  Not sure how Mauer, Doumit and Morneau are all gonna see 1st base and DH time.  Could leave Doumit severely crunched for playing time.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near Parmelee. There’s not a lot of upside (maybe 15 homers), he’s playing his home games in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome and Doumit/Morneau/Mauer will all steal time from him.

Josh Donaldson – The starting 3rd baseman for the Oakland A’s is… Josh Donaldson?  Colby’s brother?  Is he as bonkers as Russell’s nephew?  Yeah, Donaldson has about as much upside as a case of hemorrhoids — hey, at least I get to rub my ass with ointment!  But Donaldson has catcher eligibility.  Probably the best second catcher in a 2-catcher league you’re gonna find for under five bucks at your auction.

Jeff Samardzija – The only thing holding him back from being successful is his control. So far this spring, he has 16 Ks and one walk. Keith Law commented this is the best he’s ever seen him, then he tweeted some pompous thing about Russian literature and coq au vin.  It’s worth an add on Samardzija, but I’m not sure I’d start him his first time out.

Francisco Liriano – Seriously, kill me right now.  Ugh.  F-Liriano, indeed.  But he is owned in less than 50% leagues and when Ricky Nolasco is owned in more, that’s not copacetic.

Tommy Milone – In the same ballpark as Brandon McCarthy (literally!) and Stauffer (not!), shouldn’t be great for Ks, but could provide nice WHIP support like Jiffy Lube.

Lance Lynn – Will fill in for Carpenter in the early part of the season and put a country-western album in August, “Lance Lynn Sings:  My WHIP Drives Around No Heartaches.”

Jonathon Niese – Here’s what I said in the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, “(Niese) had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Jonathan Broxton – Broxton’s got back, and saves apparently.  Yes, you should grab him.  SAGNOF!

Henry Rodriguez – Could get saves, will get Ks, could hurt your WHIP.  6 of one, half dozen of another and six of a negative.  That’s 6, which is not a prime number.  Oh, no!

Brad Lidge – Should be first to get saves in Washington.  Not to throw a bucket of cold urine on Storen owners, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Lidge gets more saves than Storen this year.

SELL

Chris Carpenter – I don’t know, I guess I wouldn’t drop him.  I guess I’d DL him if I already drafted him against my advice.  But I sure as heckfire wouldn’t draft him now, if you haven’t drafted yet.

Kendrys Morales – People are really excited about him right now.  I heard the other day he saved a kitten from a tree…By ripping said tree from the ground and gently placing it down next to the kitten’s baby mama.  It’s a moving story.  As discussed in our fantasy baseball podcast, Morales isn’t going to see enough at-bats in 12 team mixed leagues.  I wouldn’t drop Morales out right because of the previously aforementioned enthusiasm that I already mentioned aforementionedly.  I would see if I could get something for him in a trade.  Maybe a cheap Donkeycorn.

Mark Trumbo – Guys and four girl readers, where is he playing?  The Sciosciapath said he’d get 40 games at 3rd.  That’s not over the course of 40 games, that’s over the course of the season.  Where is he playing the other 120 games?  Angels playing with two DHs?

Daniel Murphy – He’s owned in 92% of ESPN leagues.  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  I feel like Matthew Modine in Short Cuts saying, “He said, ‘You want to have a go at it?’”  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  Two homers a month?!  This is Grey’s brain.  This is Grey’s brain baffled.

Drew Storen – Splash!  That was the bucket of cold urine.  A closer who can’t throw in Spring Training because of arm troubles is, um, trouble.  I wouldn’t trade Storen for an opened bag of candy corn from Halloween ’95, but I’d explore options.

In the first real game of the season (it was real, right?  I looked for highlights, but ESPN was showing a Red Sox split-squad game instead).  From the box score, I heart Brandon McCarthy.  His line was 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners and 3 Ks.  Yeah, the Mariners aren’t very good at hitting, but a quality start is a quality start.  Brandon McCarthy celebrated by taking out a Tokyo girl with red streaks in her hair who lives on the other side of the tracks.  Sorry Peking Ducky!  I tried to get Rudy to draft McCarthy in one of our leagues on Tuesday night, and was disappointed to see he went to someone else for $9.  I have his projections down as 8-11/3.50/1.17/140.  Last year, his home ERA and WHIP was 2.65 and 1.11.  He may not strike out many hitters, but there’s not many pitchers late I’d trust to actually help my WHIP.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw in spring training (and real baseball) for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Justin Smoak – 0-for-5.  That two day pick up has worked out well so far!  While he’s at it, maybe he can hit a line drive into Florida and injure Anibal Sanchez.

Ichiro Suzuki – 5 ABs, 4 singles, 2 balls out of the infield.  That’s a .800 AVG in baseball and .400 AVG in sumo.

Dustin Ackley – Home run and steal for the first official slam & legs of the season.  Back in November, I went over my Dustin Ackley fantasy.  I wrote it while beating Steve Wiebe at Donkey Kong.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  With the week layoff between the second and third Mariners game, is he gonna start twice in the first four games of the Mariners season?  Cause that would be kinda awesome…If I owned him anywhere…which I don’t…  Sticking with the dot, dot, dot theme:

Michael Morse – His collagen injection paid wonders and was able to secure a sugar daddy may make it back for Opening Day.  If not, he shouldn’t miss much time.

Drew Storen – Expected to start the year on the DL.  Of course he is.  He’s only thrown 2 innings this spring.  As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball podcast, Henry Rodriguez is looking to me like one of those middle relievers that comes out of nowhere and Ks a shizzton and ends up being more valuable than your number three fantasy starter that you were crazy about in March and wanted to kill in May.  Think Venters instead of Liriano last year.  Actually, think of Venters instead of Liriano last year as long as you don’t have any sharp objects around.  No, a comparison to Venters isn’t completely apt.  Rodriguez’s WHIP might be more in line with a Marmol.  But he gets Ks, should get innings and may get saves.  Who’s standing in his way?  Lidge?  Oy.  If I wanted straight saves, I’d go Lidge first.  He will probably be the first guy to see ninth inning looks.  It doesn’t mean he will be the last guy to see saves in Storen’s stead.

Justin Morneau – The 2nd best Canadian 1st baseman is starting to heat up as spring training comes to a close.  He’s hit 3 HRs in the past couple days.  Hopefully, he doesn’t rub it in to Brian Roberts at the next Concussion Anonymous meeting.

Brian Wilson – His beard must be itchy because the Giants scratched him from Wednesday’s game.  If you drafted him, hope you enjoy wild rides.  Follow his gimp’s lead and handcuff him with Sergio Romo and/or Santiago Casilla.  (For saves, I’d go Casilla first.)

B.J. Upton – Headed to the DL to start the year as B.J.’s back is still Upton-o-good after colliding with Desmond Jennings in the OF.  They are just too fast.  The Rays have to regulate them like NASCAR to avoid this stuff in the future.  Steals ain’t got no face, but they require a functioning back.  Upton said he could miss only a few games (three), and doesn’t expect to miss more than a few weeks.  Gulp.  Hopefully it’s the former if former means the first one.  Brandon Guyer should get some playing time in the mean’s while.  Take note those of you in 30-team MLB leagues.

Jed Lowrie – Jammed his thumb.  Thumb up the jam, thumb it up!  Sorry, that always gets me.  Lowrie said he should be back in a few days.  Sounds like a stereotypical Sparky Anklebiter injury.  So a player with too much can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness needs to put his finger on ice.

J.J. Hardy – Received a cortisone shot in his shoulder yesterday, which is a steroid (tomato-potato, I guess).  I didn’t like Hardy going into the spring, but the one thing he offered was power.  How you think the power’s gonna be with a sore shoulder?  Yup.

Chris Carpenter – Having a bone spur removed, will be sidelined a couple of months.  No, this is not the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter, it’s the Red Sox’s Chris Carpenter.  What a jinxed name.  This is a warning to anyone underage getting a fake ID.  Don’t go with Leo Nunez or Fausto Carmona.  The authorities will be all over you.

Ryan Madson has to have Tommy John surgery.  Luckily, he signed with a Dusty Baker-managed team as the trainers have a lot of experience diagnosing busted arms.  Sean Marshall will likely take over the closing gig, spurring indie comedy fans in Cincy to bring Sean Of The Red signs to games.  Best case scenario:  Marshall goes the whole season with the job, continues to rack up a 9+ K-rate and 40+ saves.  Most realistic scenario:  Dusty brings Marshall into the ninth inning of a tie game and, as the two teams battle scoreless inning after scoreless inning, Marshall stays in the game for another 16 innings and throws 450 pitches.  125 of those pitches he kicks over the plate Hacky Sack-style because his arm is too tired.  Then Masset and Aroldis end up getting 5-7 saves each and Marshall ends the year with 30+ saves and an ERA around 3.50.  Most likely scenario involving dolphins:   Marshall falls asleep on a raft and wakes in Barbados.  With the phone lines down due to a tropical storm, he befriends the local innkeeper, Teronimo, who teaches him how to surf.  But Teronimo has a hidden secret — Marshall is really his nephew that his brother asked him to watch over.  When Teronimo reveals his secret, there’s a giant rift between Marshall and Teronimo that is only assuaged by the sight of dolphins.  No matter the scenario, grab Sean Marshall immediately.  You might’ve just lucked into a top tier closer for free.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Drew Storen – Could start the year on the DL.  Davey Johnson made that announcement minutes after he said Storen had no structural issues with his elbow, which came a day after he said Storen needed an MRI, which was minutes after Storen said he couldn’t throw, which can mere moments after he was diagnosed with strep throat.  Following?  Yeah, neither do I.  I’m beginning to think some ball clubs need a new HMO.  Johnson said Clippard would not see saves, but the team would turn to Henry Rodriguez or Brad Lidge.  I’d pick them up in reverse order for saves.  When in doubt, go with the guy with experience.  And no one has experience blowing leads quite like Lidge.  “Nats Fall Off the Lidge” is already written on a Post-It on some copy editor’s desk just waiting to go to press.  In one league where our innings max is small and our needs for Ks is tall — she says she likes the ocean — we went with Rodriguez.  He averages 98 MPH with his fastball and has a 9+ K-rate.  If he can keep his walks in check, he could be this year’s huge middle reliever breakout.

Bobby Jenks – Arrested for a DUI.  He’s signed a contract with Hanna Barbera for the rights to his name as animated onomatopoeia when a cartoon character crashes a car.  Barney, “Fred, Watch out!”  JENKS!

Joba Chamberlain – Dislocated his ankle reportedly playing on a trampoline.  It was an inevitable outcome of his failed appeasement policy when he ceded playing in the Bouncyland region of Chuck E. Cheesoslovakia.

Joakim Soria – Will undergo Tommy John surgery.  Feel free to drop him, we won’t see him until thirteen after twenty.

Chris Carpenter – Updating the previous 17 posts I’ve done on Carpenter, he has nerve issues in his shoulder.  Not good news, as if you needed me to tell you.  I wouldn’t have drafted Carpenter before this news.  Guess how I feel about him about him now.  73?  That’s your guess?  That’s terrible.  Get Lance Lynn in NL-Only and deeper mixed leagues, I’m guessing Carpenter won’t be back for a while.  When he dealt with this similar problem in 2008, he threw 15 innings that year.  No, I didn’t forget a zero.  That’s fifteen.  We may even see Shelby Miller by June, if Lynn can’t cut it, though I think Lynn can.  Here’s what I said earlier this preseason, “Out of the bullpen last year, Lynn’s fastball regularly touched the high-90?s as he put up a 2.22 ERA and 32 Ks in 24 1/3 IP.  As a starter, he was much less exciting (5.23 ERA, 8 Ks), but like a man who needs prunes that was in limited duty (10 1/3 IP).  From his minor league track record, we see a guy who has a 7+ K-rate and moderate control.  There’s a chance for some sweet, sweet upside here.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Trevor Bauer – Was optioned down to Double-A and Uncle Barry Enright was optioned to Triple-A.  Rusty Ryal and Chris Jakubauskas were assigned to their minor league camp.  You think Chris Jakubauskas ever misspells his own name?

Jamie Moyer – The 49-year-old will make the Rockies rotation.  For now, he’ll put on hold his quest to make the World Bingo Tour.

Mark Trumbo – On Saturday, the Sciosciapath said, “We feel (Trumbo) has the potential to be a terrific third baseman.”  Then he started laughing uncontrollably.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper tore his meniscus announcing his retirement.

Matt Thornton – White Sox announced there’s a five man race for the closer role –  Santiago, Ohman, Thornton, Reed and Crain.  Kinda sounds like the race to be the Republican presidential candidate.  I think right now the chances are Thornton at 80%, Crain at 10% and the field is at 10%.

Chase Utley – Said he’ll miss Opening Day but expects to play this year.  Have things gotten so bad that in March Utley is saying he’s going to play this year?  He has to clarify at some point in the next six months he’s going to be ready?  Yesterday, I said I wouldn’t draft him until around pick 150.  I may have been optimistic there.  Probably would wait another 50 picks and hope we saw him for about 80 games this year.

Anthony Rizzo – Optioned to the minors.  Will probably see him back in June.  Until then, Rizzo will be tearing up Triple-A and making prank calls, jerky.

Logan Morrison – May not be ready for Opening Day.  He said, “I think the knee is going to tell me.  The knee is going to tell everyone. I can’t tell it what to do.”  Reading this reminded me of when the ref would lift Hulk Hogan’s arm twice, then Hogan waved a finger up the final time like his finger had a mind of its own.  Let’s pray Morrison’s knee waves to the crowd the third time it’s raised.  I’m having serious concerns though, and I wouldn’t draft him at this point unless he fell at least four rounds.  It’s way too early in the year for this much concern about a surgically-repaired knee.

Bud Norris – Left Friday’s game with tightness in his triceps.  He was on Rudy’s risky pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball list.  The only player on the Astros with more sliders in their diet is Carlos Lee.

Travis Snider – Optioned to the minors, and Eric Thames will play left field.  I gave Thames some nice projections over at the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, saying something like he has power upside.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!

Doug Fister – Left Friday’s game with a sore middle finger.  Fister has a sore middle finger?  Are you thinking what I’m thinking?  Yup, probably tendinitis.

Ted Lilly – Has neck stiffness.  Maybe he got a Viagra stuck in his throat.  Will probably miss at least one start, wouldn’t be surprised if he missed two or three starts.

Mike Morse – Might make it back for Opening Day after all, even after his platelet rich plasma injection, which sounds like a procedure a real housewife of Beverly Hills would get.

Matt Bush – Arrested for DUI after hitting a 72-year-old motorcyclist.  The motorcyclist’s 95-year-old mother responded, “I told you motorcycles are dangerous.”

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Cubs Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Hire Jim Essian.

1) Epstein made over the team best he could going into the Spring.  Who do you think still goes and how soon?  (I think Carlos Marmol is out-ski, but you would know better than me.)

Now that we’re less than two weeks from Opening Day, it’s much safer for me to opine that the team will at least enter the season pretty much as-is.  I’ve been lobbying for the trade of Carlos Marmol since 2009, and now his arm is more useless than a one-game wildcard playoff (ZING, BUD!).  I don’t think he’ll make it through the end of the year as the Cubs’ closer, even if he remains on the Cubs’ roster.  Hopefully, Ryan Dempster performs well enough and adds a hilarious enough Dick Vitale impression to his resume to get traded away, but Jim Hendry gave him a stupid contract, and the Cubs might actually have to eat some of it to unload him.  What a horrible thought.  Alfonso Soriano is having a great spring, and people were saying Carlos Zambrano was equally “untradeable,” so I have a glimmer of hope that Jeo Hoystein can move him.  Now that Marlon Byrd is off gluten, there’s no point in him staying in the city with the greatest pizza on the planet (Get bent, New York.).  I think he’ll be traded away for scraps, and Brett Jackson will finish the season in Chicago.  Oh, did you want to talk about tradeable players with actual value?  The Cubs have one.  And that one is Matt Garza.  He won’t finish the year in a Cub uniform.  Maybe the Cubs can even get Sam Fuld back in a Garza deal!

2) Do the Cubs fans see Chris Carpenter this year?  And I don’t mean when they play the Cardinals. (Note from Grey:  I asked this question a few months ago prior to Carpenter being shipped.)

Maybe.  The Red Sox are coming in on June 15th.  Because I’m a procrastinator, you obviously asked this question prior to Carpenter being sent to Boston to complete the Theo Epstein “trade.”  But so I don’t cheat you out of an answer, I’ll make this rotation prediction:  Jeff Samardzija will make 20 starts in a Cub uniform this year.

3) Bryan LaHair is keeping the 1st base bag warm for Rizzo or LaHair stays at 1st for the entire year putting up better-than-expected numbers?

Bryan LaHair is Micah Hoffpauir 2.0.  He even wears the same number.  That is not a compliment.  LaHair is having a miserable spring, and Rizzo is having a great one.  I know the front office is playing it safe, tempering expectations for Rizzo and keeping pressure off him by saying that LaHair is their guy.  Nonsense.  Rizzo will be up by the All-Star Break.  I’m going to make a not-very-bold statement right here and say that before the start of August, the Cubs’ Opening Day roster will have undergone a 40% turnover.

4) I’m in a deep league and I’m looking at Reed Johnson, Tony Campana, Wellington Castillo and Jeff Baker.  Who gets the most ABs?  Best stats?

Baker gets the most ABs.  Barring an injury to Soriano, the outfield is crowded enough as it is to count on significant at-bats from Reed Johnson.  That’s not even taking into account the fact that Reed’s back is made of Styrofoam and that he has a penchant for running headlong into walls.  Tony Campana is a terrible baseball player, and the Cubs finally have a front office capable of recognizing that fact.  I hope he doesn’t see the inside of Wrigley Field this year.  Wellington Castillo is having a great spring, but so is Steve Clevenger.  There’s no guarantee that Castillo will even make the team, even though both “backup” catchers deserve to make it over Geovany Soto.  The Cubs seem intent on unloading Blake DeWitt, and Darwin Barney is only slightly less bad than Campana.  That is going to leave a big hole at second base.  Baker should get a lot of at-bats there, especially against left-handed pitching.  He’ll also spell David DeJesus in right field against lefties.

Reed will probably end up with the best slash line.  For whatever reason, he loves hitting in a Cubs uniform, and can’t hit anywhere else.  He’s the anti-Cub.

5) What would make you happiest as a Cub fan in 2012?
A) They win more than 75 games
B) It’s uncovered that Alfonso Soriano is using a fake name (real name Carlton Banks) and must forfeit the rest of his contract.
C) Ian Stewart’s bat livens up in the denser Chicago air.
D) Travis Wood morphs into a young Kerry Wood and Darwin Barney evolves into someone other than Darwin Barney.

I’m going to put them in order from what would make me least happy to what would make my heart grow larger than Tony Campana’s hat.

A)  Whether they win 75 games (that’s my exact prediction) or 82 games (they won’t), this team isn’t built to do anything in the 2012 playoffs, so it doesn’t really matter.  2014.  That’s the year I predict they’ll be back in the playoffs.  They should even win a game or two.  Only 11 years after their last playoff victory!  Hooray!
D)  How dare you suggest that anyone could take the place of Kerry Wood?  He’s #34 in my heart.  Travis Wood is having a shockingly bad spring, so at this point I’d be happy if he morphed into MIKE Wood.  I truly hope you intentionally used the word “evolve” in reference to Darwin.  Knowing the Cubs, if he does evolve into someone else, that someone will be Augie Ojeda.  Which will actually be a significant improvement.
B)  I’m a big Soriano apologist.  I like the guy.  He tries hard, he accepts blame when he sucks, I hear he’s a good teammate, and it’s not his fault that Jim Hendry overpaid him in both dollars and years.  But, yeah, that money could be far better spent elsewhere.
C)  I know you’re a big Ian Stewart guy, and I really hope you’re finally right about him.  The Cubs took 30 years to replace Ron Santo, and I hope it doesn’t take them another 30 to replace Ramirez.  He was the best hitter on the team for the last several years, and I hope Stewart finally blossoms into a threat at the plate and makes me forget all of those thrilling Ramirez walkoff home runs.