Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, the best third basemen are identified and elected.

Despite having well over 1,000 of his games ineligible since they came prior to the ‘fantasy era’, Mike Schmidt is inducted as the games premier third basemen amassing a final FBHOF score of 70.5 and a Peak Score of 67.7, both tops at his position.

The strike shortened 1981 season was his trademark campaign, one in which he scored 18.8 FBHOF points, the second best total for any batter of all time.  In just 102 games Schmidt batted .316, 78 R, 31 HR, 91 RBI en route to the number one overall ranking, far ahead of the second place finisher, Andre Dawson.  In his previous season the lifetime Philly finished 1st at his position (2nd overall), a feat he duplicated again in 1984.

He recorded two other great seasons in 1986 (35 HR, 108 R) and 1983 (36 HR, 106 RBI), which gives him a 5-year peak ranking of 1.4 at his position.  This simply means that on average, he finished between the best and second best at his position when analyzing his 5 best seasons.  He averaged .280, 108 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB during the span.

In the eight seasons between 1980 and 1987, Schmidt reached the 30-HR milestone each year, topping out at 48 in 1981.  He also drove in at least 85 runners each year, and scored the same in seven of those eight seasons.  Early in the decade Schmidt also stole double digit bases which increased his value considerably.  In these prime years he ranked 1st overall in home runs (295, second best was Dale Murphy at 264) and RBI (839), and 5th in Runs Scored.  All in all, he was the best fantasy batter of the period, and not just the best fantasy third basemen.

As good as Schmidt was, our next inductee Paul Molitor was more valuable over the long-haul, out distancing Schmidt by almost 50% in career score, 140.6 to 94.8.  Of course, a lot of this has to do with Schmidt’s 1970’s seasons not counting, but plenty had to do with Molitor himself.  He too lost seasons to the 70s’ (one very good, one not) but more importantly, Molitor finished 1st at his position 5 times, an accomplishment only bettered by Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

Molitor also has 4 additional seasons where he was ranked in the top 5, giving him nine total, one more than Schmidt has to his credit.  So, why isn’t Molitor rated higher?  Peak value.  Molitor best season was 1982, take a look:  .302 AVG, 136 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 41 SB.  This was good enough for 13.1 FBHOF points, which is well off the pace of Schmidt’s best season.  The same for their second best seasons, Schmidt outpaces him by a healthy margin, 14.5 to 13.0.  Lining them up best to worst:

    Molitor    Schmidt

1st   13.1      18.8

2nd   13.0      14.5

3rd   12.6      11.7

4th   11.8      11.6

5th   11.8      11.1

It’s clear that Schmidt was more valuable during this 5 year period, significantly outdistancing Molitor twice.

Positional eligibility impacts the scoring as well.  Three of Molitor’s top five scores happen to be seasons where Molitor was playing First Base (from 1992 -1993).  In fact, aside from 3B/1B, Molitor also had two seasons where he was eligible at second base and five where he was eligible only as a DH.  In all though, he had more seasons at third than any other and therefore is considered a third basemen for induction purposes.

At his best, Molitor delivered his fantasy owners a brilliant combination of speed, power, and high averages.  Remembering the relatively low run scoring environment he was active in, his average peak year batting line was:  .325, 119 R, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 32 SB.

Our last inductee for the hot corner helps speak to how baseball has changed through the years.   In 1999 Chipper Jones had the following line:  .319 AVG, 116 R, 45 HR, 110 RBI, 25 SB.  Despite these monstrous numbers he wasn’t the most valuable fantasy batter during year, as that distinction went to Larry Walker.  Nor was he the 2nd or 3rd most valuable thanks to superb seasons from Jeff Bagwell and Manny Ramirez.  Jones had to ‘settle’ for 4th because the era in which he played in favored hitters to a extensive degree, so much so that in 1999 the NL average OPS was .771, which at the time was the 3rd highest on record since 1900.

This has been the story of Jones career.  In ’98 he went .313, 123 R, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 16 SB but was only ranked 8th overall.  In 2000 he had virtually the same season, but dropped to 10th.  Jones has never been ranked better than 4th overall in any one season, a fact that reduces his value when comparing him to Schmidt and Molitor.  In his favor however, is that among his peers he had no equal in his prime years of 1996-2001.  During this six-year stretch Jones is ranked, on average, more than four and a half times better as the next best third basemen.  There were 33 players eligible at third base in this time frame, below are the average rankings for the top 5:

1.5 – Chipper Jones
7.0 – Jeff Cirillo (!)
8.6 – Dean Palmer
10.5 – Todd Zeile
13.8 – Scott Rolen

No player bested him twice in the years he wasn’t ranked number at the position.  He truly was in a class all by himself.  His 61.2 FBHOF point total and 61.2 Peak Score is 3rd best of his peers, while his Career Score is 2nd best.

A few players missed the cut:
- George Brett – The Kansas City Hall of Famer is one great season away from election.  His top 5 seasons listed by rank among third basemen are 1, 2, 2, 4, 5 with the last two also being outside of the top 20-overall.  Can we elect a player who didn’t have 5 top 20 seasons when his FBHOF peers all have?  It’s a shame, but he doesn’t quite make the cut.  (Brett also lost 6 seasons to the 70’s and would have easily been elected had these years been considered).  One possible way to induct him is to give the guy a 3 point bonus for his anger management issues.

- Wade Boggs – Another Hall of Famer misses the cut as well, which in all likelihood will be a common theme at FBHOF.  Boggs isn’t all that close to warranting a vote in, and while I don’t want to call any immortal one dimensional, that’s just what Boggs was for most of his career.  He reached the 80 RBI mark just once, had double digit home runs just twice, and never stole more than 3 bases in a season.  Even his hallmark 1987 campaign (.363, 108/24/89) came in a huge offensive season, making it just 20th best among batters.

- Pedro Guerrero – Surprisingly, to me anyway, Guerrero is in the same exact boat as Brett, just 1 season away from serious consideration.

- Matt Williams – Has more 10 point seasons than either Brett or Guerrero, but never had a truly elite season.

- Scott Rolen/Bobby Bonilla/Vinny Castilla – Each had two or three great years; five are required unless one of those years happens to be an all time great.

Dr. Julie Andrews sure has been busy lately. First sending Posada to the DL now Smoltz. Officially Smoltz has a severely old arm that has been severely overused which leaves him severely doubtful for a while. Actually, that wasn’t official, but let’s just say the injury news reaffirms a sore arm that first appeared in March. So what does that mean? It means you’re S.O.L — shit out of luck. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smoltz isn’t around for a few months and even when he returns, it may not be for long. He may just return, pitch a few times then reinjure himself. So what do you do? Well, you put him on your DL or you trade him for fifty cents on the dollar. I suggest you trade him. Old pitchers with a ton of innings on their arm who complain of arm soreness in spring training, then go on the DL with the same arm soreness, aren’t good ones to hold onto. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto – Um, yeah… Well, he did retire César Izturis once. Okay, he was rocked. By the Cardinals. Badly. But he’s not the first rookie pitcher to get hit hard. Last year, Lincecum and Gallardo both had their hiccups (or vomitings, depending on your POV). He’s a rookie pitcher and these things have to be weathered or get out of the rookie pitcher game. Will Cueto continue to get rocked? Let’s hope not, but he’s a rookie. He did tweak something in his leg last time out, so maybe that was the issue. Let’s hope so. He still has a tremendous K/BB ratio. You can’t drop him to waivers yet as much as you might want to.

Derrek Lee – I said in January, “In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08.” And that’s me quoting me! Can he hit 45 home runs? Doubtful, but 35 seems more than doable.

Joe Borowski – He’s playing toss, which is to say he’s throwing as hard as he can. Oofa! Yeah, he’s still a few weeks away from pressing Betancourt and even then, I’m skeptical he can be an effective closer. Although…

Rafael Betancourt – Was a shook one. Beltre (who had three walks in a game for the first time since 2004!) hit a bomb. Betancourt’s still fine. For now. Stay posted.

Ben Sheets – Six times in his career he’s walked five or more batters. Tonight he walked seven. I’m guessing he’s hiding an injury. I know, big surprise.

Alfonso Soriano – He’s coming back from the DL on Thursday and will immediately go into the leadoff spot. I’d field offers to see what I could get because, as always, before the injured player returns he has the most value. I wouldn’t trade him for a chicken fetus and toast, but, ya know, send out feelers.

Jonathan Broxton – Looks to be headed to the DL. This actually hurts me more than Smoltz because I have Broxton on a lot of teams. It was described as an injury simliar to Rich Harden’s. *sticking my head in the oven*

Troy Tulowitzki – Ugh. He left the game with an apparent leg injury. Hopefully it’s nothing to serious because he hasn’t even started to hit yet. The last thing his owners (me on a lot of teams) need is for him to be sidelined and never get on track. Baker was supposed to start last night. *turning on the oven*

Chad Cordero – Going back to the DL. Maybe Nomar and Blalock can work him into their carpool schedule. Kids gotta go to school!

Troy Glaus – I know it’s not a sexy pick, but, as I keep saying, he can help you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – This guy is laying a major turd baby in every single at-bat. Honestly, I thought last year’s 1st half slump was simply a rookie adjusting and his 2nd half numbers were a sign that he would come out fast this year. Well, this article I wrote way back in December was a joke, but seems eerily prescient (Word of the Day, bitches!).

Joel Pinero, Carlos Silva and Josh Fogg – Combined for like 80 innings of 2 run baseball yesterday with like a .00001 WHIP. Why won’t my pitching suck?!

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his first home run since April 2nd. I’m still not a fan, but this might lead to a hot streak. Those Zimmerfans out there better hope so.

Jose Guillen – If picking up Guillen off waivers causes you to have an erection for longer than four hours, you need to see a doctor, but I told you last week he was a good buy low. Is he exciting? No, but he’ll get some home runs.

Chipper Jones – Player of the month. I’d still trade him tomorrow for the right offer. In fact, I suggest you start trying to trade him. He won’t stay healthy for 150 games like he wants to. His value will never be higher than it will be today.

Mike Cameron – Returned and was placed right into the two hole. He went 3-for-5 with two runs and two RBIs. I felt like Tejada was a great pick this year because he wanted to prove to people that he was clean and under 35. By that twisted logic, Cameron could also be in for a good year. If you won’t pick him up because he cheated, grab JR Towles — he went to Jesus Camp.

Jimmy Rollins hits the DL. So there goes one of your top two picks. Yeah, that’s no fun. If you didn’t draft him, you’re smiling pretty wide today. Not because one of your leaguemates is suffering (okay, maybe that’s part of the fun). No, you’re smiling because you’re anticipating what I’m about to tell you. There may not be a better buying opportunity on Rollins the entire season. Buy now! Trade for Rollins. Get him. Swindle, people. Don’t wait a week until he’s about to come back. Don’t trade Hanley Ramirez for him; that’s just dopey. No, buy low on Rollins. Know that the ankle injury may linger for a little while, but it’s only April. If you can trade for Rollins offering some package that would have never worked two weeks ago, then you’re still getting a premiere shortstop who will be hitting in front of Utley and Howard all season. In the beginning of the season I had Rollins’s projections at 130/22/70/35/.290, I’d scale that to 110/18/55/22/.290 — so, I guess the question to you is, how much do you want those numbers? If you drafted Alex Rodriguez, you’re not getting much sleep tonight. Arod injured his right quad in Sunday’s game. Arod has a lot of positives going for him, durability is one. I think he’ll be just fine. Sit tight.

Frank Thomas – Hater Bell pointed out how Karabell was a part-mental patient, part-Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer when he called Frank Thomas a big 2008 sleeper. Yeah, it didn’t make any sense in March and still doesn’t, but whatever he’s ESPN’s top analyst, ya’ll.

Mark Lowe – I hope you’re not even bothering with this mess anymore. Putz should be back this Tuesday. Don’t bother with the fill-ins.

Rafael Soriano – He still can’t throw without pain. I think he might be out a month at least. Plan accordingly.

Chipper Jones – I should’ve had WebMd sponsor today’s post. Of course he’s hurt. The guy gets hurt on a base on balls. You know that though.

Edwin Encarnacion – (His last name’s spelling is bothering me. Second “a” or no second “a.” If anyone can get a message to Edwin and ask him, mucho gracias en advancemiento.) Hit two home runs on Sunday. I have him on a lot of teams. I hope this is the beginnings of a hot streak.

Carlos Ruiz – Or as he will now be known, Chuck Ruiz. As in chuck him to the waiver wire. Go Doumit, Mathis, Napoli, etc. It’s three weeks; Chuck Ruiz is being abandoned on my teams. He’ll be on the waiver wire, we can go back later if he starts to hit.

Adam Dunn – If anyone’s worried he’s going to hit under .200 for the season, I’d trade for him in a second.

Scott Baker – Going into the season, I pointed out to all of youse in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. So far this year, it’s 20/4. That’s really good.

Jonathan Sanchez – He strikes people out and in his next start he gets the Reds in SF. Yeah, he should be on your team for at least Friday’s start.

Eric Gagne – Fatty-No-Roids got hit. He was used four straight days, so it’s not anymore of a harbinger than the whole injury-prone thing. The Brewers really, really want him to succeed, so know that as Riske sits on your staff.

Chase Utley – My pick for NL MVP is looking good thus far. Not many of my other picks look so great. BTW, if you haven’t entered that contest yet, there’s still time.

Jair Jurrjens – I’m assuming after all of the times I’ve mentioned Jurrjens, you’ve already picked him up. If you haven’t, you should. Even when he lost this year, he looked good.

Milton Bradley – He hit a home run off Wakefield today. Whatever, just yesterday he was sitting with a sore knee.

Paul Konerko – He was actually dropped in one of my ‘pert leagues. I don’t understand that. It’s still very early in the season. I’m going to try and get him off of waivers, but since all the other ‘perts read this, I probably won’t get him. So why say anything? If you have him, bench him, but don’t drop him. It’s still early.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Atlanta Braves preview.)

Although it’s been two seasons since the end of the greatest divisional winning streak in professional sports history came to an end the Braves still have hope of bringing another division crown home in 2008. Under new General Manager Frank Wren, Atlanta returns a core of veterans and a group of baby braves that aren’t so baby anymore.

Just as pitching lead the Braves to those fourteen divisional titles, they must count on their pitching to win games. With the return of longtime Atlanta favorite Tom Glavine (prediction 12-9 4.20ERA), the Braves have a trio of former twenty game winners at the top of the rotation. If Mike Hampton (prediction 4-6 5.20ERA) can return to his what seems like an eternity ago peak then that trio becomes a quartet. Early indications show Hampton looking strong, but as we have learned in previous seasons nobody is holding their breath. As long as Hudson (prediction 17-12 3.44ERA) and Smoltz (prediction 16-10 3.25ERA) can perform in the role of team aces and Glavine can just be relied on to eat up innings I believe he can still be very effective at this point in his career. Also the rejuvenated competition between longtime friend and teammate John Smoltz should help Glavine to dig down deep for that extra competitive edge. The remaining two slots in the rotation will be a very interesting battle to watch throughout the season. Of course Hampton will be given every shot and Chuck James (prediction 10-9 4.35ERA) also has an inside track on the other opening, you have to like the other young options that the Braves could turn to. Jo-Jo Reyes and Buddy Carlyle were given some chances last year with mixed results, but Jair Jurrjens who came over in the Renteria trade has looked fantastic in spring training. The dark horse candidate is Charlie Morton. Charlie is a relatively unknown who has already impressed manager Bobby Cox and I see him getting a call up and being a regular contributor by the end of the season.

Atlanta’s bullpen is anchored by Rafael Soriano (prediction 2.70ERA 38SV) who will be called upon to be the teams full time closer this year. Last year he showed flashes of brilliance and the ability to dominate games in the later innings. It is critical for him to be able to perform at this level the entire season. Peter Moylan (prediction 2.20ERA 5SV) will be asked to setup and a duty that if he struggles could share with the lefty, Mike Gonzalez, once Gonzalez returns from the DL midseason. Although the rest of the bullpen is young and inexperienced, there are many great arms and lots of potential. Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Tyler Yates, Royce Ring, and Blaine Boyer will all compete for time in the pen.

The Braves infield is anchored by Mark Teixiera (prediction .305 39/119) and Chipper Jones (prediction .325 25/98). Teixiera and Jones are easily the most dynamic 3-4 combo in the majors. Never have two slugging switch hitters anchored a lineup like this before and they promise to wreck havoc on pitchers all season. Middle infielders Yunel Escobar (prediction .290 12/70) and Kelly Johnson (prediction .290 18/79) will set the table for the switch hitter mashers. In a partial season Yunel was very impressive at the plate and Kelly Johnson showed amazing plate discipline. Slugging catcher Brian McCann (prediction .295 25/95) at 24 is already one of the best offensive catchers in the game and his defense continues to improve.

Although Atlanta’s outfield looks like their biggest weakness fortunately it is where they have the largest wealth of prospects and talent. Gold Glove winner Jeff Francoeur (prediction .300 25/100) will again play RF and it looks like Matt Diaz (prediction .315 18/80) will be given the full time job in LF a job that I believe he fully deserves. Diaz is career .320 hitter (774 at bats) and his defense in the field is actual better than the league average. With the departure of longtime and perennial CF Andruw Jones taking his ten gold gloves to Los Angeles and no major free agent signing to fill the vacancy the center field position is wide open for this coming season. Mark Kotsay and Josh Anderson were brought in and will be given the initial opportunities to fill the void. Should either of them stumble, top prospect Jordan Schafer will be ready. It’s the universal belief that Schafer will be the long term solution and will be the starting CF by the start of the 2009 season. The Braves also have many other solid prospects should they need any additional outfield help. Jason Heyward who was Atlanta’s top pick in 2007 is believed to have superstar makeup and Gorkys Hernandez will both be ready if called upon.

Martin Prado and Scott Thorman are out of options so they will take up two slots on the bench. Tom Glavine isn’t the only former Braves all-star looking to make a comeback with the team. Javy Lopez is battling for a bench job as the backup catcher. His bat has always been his strength, but the reports have been very encouraging that he will win a bench spot with much improved defense. By breaking his hand Omar Infante has opened a temporary spot on the bench. Brent Lillibridge is a solid defender with plus speed who hopes to prove to the major league club that he will have long term value as a short stop. Upon returning Infante is an undervalued utility player who actually is a solid hitter and can efficiently play many positions.
Andruw Jones provided the Braves with gold glove defense in center field for over a decade. Any member of the pitching staff will tell you they benefited from having him effortlessly track down balls in the gap and turn extra base hits into outs. The combination of the Braves ability to adjust to this absence or a player being able to step up and fill the gap will be what can end the Braves drought and win another pennant. The lineup is strong and the pitching staff looks to be the best in the last few years, unfortunately the division hasn’t been this competitive in quite a while. The Phillies and Mets both are legitimate division winning challengers and the two having won a division title in the past two years only helps their confidence and validates their threat. The pitching staff staying healthy and effective will make or break Atlanta’s playoff and division chances. I wouldn’t bet against them, but the road will be long and challenging.

Kyle James runs The Tomahawk a news portal to blogosphere that syndicates Atlanta Braves blogs. He also guest writes for various Braves blogs including Blabberin Braves.