Fantasy Baseball Advice

Catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops for 2009 have been accounted for.  Up now, the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.   Lots of surprises in the top 20 for 3rd basemen.  On top, Mini-Donkey, Figgy, Longoria and Kung Fu Panda, which sounds like an anime cartoon that has a 75% chance of giving you a seizure.  (BTW, anyone ever watch anime?  It’s about giant robots that want to be loved.  That shizz is depressing.)  Then when you get to around the halfway mark-o, the drop off is precipitous. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Mark Reynolds – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

2. Chone Figgins – He’s actually right in line with the stats I predicted for him in the preseason.  So I knew exactly what he’d give you/me and I ranked him 15th.  This seems like crazy talk from a mental patient.  I’ve said it before, I’m obviously about to say it again.  I don’t like owning steals at 3rd base.  It puts you at a major disadvantage in the power department.  If you get 5 homers from your 3rd baseman, you better have Utley, Hill or Tulo giving you major power from your middle infield spots.  And, even then, I’d prefer to get 40 steals from a waiver wire pickup like Rajai Davis.  Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35, Final Numbers:  114/5/54/.298/42

3. Evan Longoria – He was right in line with my preseason predictions, but for some reason his season felt disappointing.  Not disappointing where he would be dropped in rankings for next season.  Not disappointing where he actually performed below expectations.  Disappointing in that he didn’t completely blow away expectations.  Kinda like how I felt after watching the first two seasons of Mad Men on DVD.  Solid, but wasn’t it supposed to be even better than that?  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7, Final Numbers:  100/33/113/.281/9

4. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the top 20 Catchers post. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

5. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman could’ve easily fell into the Alex Gordon, Delmon Young class with a poor season in 2009.  Luckily for him and his owners, he finally took the next step with his power.  Unfortunately, somewhere between Jim Bowden riding his Segway out of town and the Nats having another terrible season, Zimmerman stopped running.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7, Final Numbers:  110/33/106/.292/2

6. Kevin Youkilis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

7. David Wright – If I would’ve told you in March that you’d get 27 steals from Wright, I imagine you would’ve been over the moon, or whatever that old-timey expression is.  In 2009, Wright pulled his best impersonation of Alex Rios circa 2008.  Numbers aren’t necessarily terrible.  They’re just not at all what you expected.  If you wanted 10 homers and 25+ steals in the first round, you would’ve taken Victorino with the third pick of the draft.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14, Final Numbers: 88/10/72/.307/27

8. Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod ended giving a lot more steals than I thought he would.  Now, for the first time in a long time, he might actually be underrated going into next season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4, Final Numbers:  78/30/100/.286/14

9. Michael Young – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops post.  Didn’t have 3rd base eligibility in the preseason so was unranked.  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

10. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Chris Coghlan – Knowing I’m against Figgins as your third baseman, you can imagine how I feel about Coghlan.  The fact he ranked so high on this list really tells you all you need to know about the state of the hot corner.  If you take nothing away from this, know you want a 1st baseman in your corner infidel spot, not a 3rd baseman.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

13. Jorge Cantu – This was a classic terrible season that can absolutely kill your team.  I’ll explain.  You watch him come out of the gates in April on fire (7/22/.365).  You’re aware that he hit 29 homers the year before.  You’re psyched.  You just drafted Cantu later than most and now he’s going to have a career year.  May comes, he’s bad.  You know he’ll get better because April was so good.  June comes and he’s hitting for average again, but no pop.  You’re starting to get worried.  Was April a fluke?  July comes and he hits for average and still no power.  You’re officially sick of him.  August comes and the bottom falls out.  Finally, you’ve had enough.  You drop him.  Then, in September, he hits again on someone else’s team.  Finally, you find out Cantu impregnated your sister.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5, Final Numbers:  67/16/100/.289/3

14. Scott Rolen – Member back in the day when 85/20/95/.285 were “Injured Scott Rolen” numbers.  Well, get a load of what “Healthy Scott Rolen” numbers look like now…  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  76/11/67/.305/5

15. Casey Blake – When I went back to see where I ranked Blake in the preseason, I was actually kinda surprised I didn’t.  I think what happened was I started figuring out his predictions then I fell asleep.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/18/79/.280/3

16. Alberto Callaspo – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Russell Branyan – Here’s a guy that is the exact opposite of Jorge Cantu.  He gave you all the stats you needed from him then went to the DL.  Preseason Unranked, though he did appear in the first Buy/Sell of the season listed as a Buy.  Then he appeared in a late summer Sell column right before he disappeared into the abyss.  Net-net, natch.  Final Numbers:  64/31/76/.251/2

18. Mike Lowell – In January, I said, “‘Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.”  And that’s me quoting my trepidation!  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  54/17/75/.290/2

19. Chipper Jones – This was the year the Glass Chipper shattered.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5, Final Numbers:  80/18/71/.264/4

20. Aramis Ramirez – Not only did the two month DL stint murder his numbers, but even when he returned he didn’t always look like himself.  I blame Milton Bradley.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295, Final Numbers:  46/15/65/.317/2

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Who doesn’t love to show their frenemies their fantasy baseball teams in October and say, “Look at what I won with?”  Then they see Juan Uribe and they’re confounded, “How did you win with Juan Uribe?”  That is the secret to fantasy baseball in September.  If you win your league, I guarantee someone will look at your team at the end of the year and be completely confused by some of the guys you own.  Cliff Pennington?  Robinson Tejeda?  Did the other teams in your league quit? No, you’re playing hot guys.  This is imperative at this time of the year.  Imperative is the important word to know.  Juan Uribe has not only been incredibly hot, but Uribe will confound your frenemies!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Juan Francisco – If I had to take a wild guess, I think Francisco will (try to) man the hot corner in the 2nd half of 2010 after the Reds unload Rolen for spare parts.  I say (try to) because Dusty doesn’t always play rookies.  Also, Francisco’s no guarantee.  He feels a bit to me like Troy Glaus, or even Chris Davis without the Bill James-inspired optimism, i.e., he strikes out nearly once per game and doesn’t walk enough.  He could provide some pop in deep NL-Only keepers.  This isn’t for you, mixed leaguers.

Robinson Tejeda – Wouldn’t be surprised if February Grey has nice things to say about Tejeda.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – He’s been good for a while now.  Like, the whole season.  So is Rowland his maiden name?

Vicente Padilla – After you read Uribe and now Padilla, I’m sure many of you are going to skim the rest of the post.  I don’t blame you.

Kevin Jepsen – SAGNOF!

Dan Wheeler – Could be the closer, but the Rays haven’t had a save since August.  It’s kinda not worth it, but if you’re in a pinch then I’d look at Wheeler since Maddon has said Howell and Balfour are on restrictions (bed by 9, no carbs and a low pitch count) for the rest of the season.

Matt LaPorta – Look at his last week of stats.  Yes, the MLP Package is finally on.

Drew Stubbs – Showing a bunch of power for a guy who looks like he wouldn’t be able to open the pickle jar.

Casey Blake – Currently murdering the ball like his brother, Robert… Well, you get it.

Brett Gardner – The Yankees are coasting into the ‘offs and Gardner could see an increase in playing time.  That means steals.

Kaz Matsui – Obviously, he’s the less glamorous of the Matsuis (Matsuii?) with a markedly smaller porn collection — buy at least a raincoat, man — but no hitter has been hotter over the past week.

Cliff Pennington – Batting near .400 over the last week with a homer and a steal.  And he sounds like a villain from an 80s movie — You spilled beer on my Izod!

Nick Swisher – Nick, your sideburns were just a crutch. Thank you, random italicized voice!

SELL

Yovani Gallardo – If you’re moving in the Tejedas and Uribes, you need to make room.  Gallardo is getting shutdown.  But he doesn’t wanna!  Yeah, that’s nice.  He should’ve been shut down a month ago.  Now I’m worried about him for next year because of all of his innings this year.  See, now you done worried me.

Chipper Jones – Lose the Glass Chipper.

B.J. Upton – Who’s the Boss?  Apparently, not the Bossman.

Rich Harden – Hasn’t been good recently and now he’s getting skipped.  I’m sure there’s better options out there.

Josh Hamilton – I don’t enjoy being right when I say a player is going to fail and they do.  Okay, let me rephrase that.  I do enjoy being right when I say someone is going to fail and they do.  There, that’s better.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

Before we get into today’s Buy/Sell, I want to clear something up.  Last week someone commented that my Buy/Sell post only had Buy guys in it for very deep leagues.  This is sorta true.  With only a little over a month left of the season, just about every league’s trade deadline has past.  So I could tell you to buy Manny Ramirez, but how are you going to do that?  I do believe in the last month of the season, there’s something else you should be doing.  Or actually not doing.  You should no longer be waiting around for production.  Jermaine Dye’s put up fine stats this year.  You guys going to get a room in October and talk about his great May?  If Rajai Davis is on your waivers and you need steals and don’t need power, forget Dye’s previous production and go for the here and now.  You’re up against the clock, fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term).  You only have so much time to make this shizz happen.  If it’s going to happen.  This is more or less for one year leagues.  In keepers, you need to be prudent about who you can drop.  Oh, and bee-tee-dubya, Jermaine Dye was dropped to fifth in the order and has one homer in the past month while batting .187.  Cut the umbilical, doode.  You guys are done.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jack Cust – Wait, I know a better title for this post, “How To Bore The Crap Out Of Your Readers With Boring Ass Names?” Random italicized voice, you seem like you have a bit of a chip on your shoulders.  No, not at all. Oh, okay.  So Cust may be boring, but when do I tell you to pick up Cust?  Maybe twice a year?  This is one of those times.  (Sidenote:  When I was seven years old, I kept bugging my grandparents to take me to see the hookers in New York because I wanted to see if they really had hooks.  So we go down a street in pre-Giuliani New York filled with prostitutes.  Of course, my grandparents, being the first generation of ridiculous — me being the 3rd, pull up to a prostitute to ask her to show me her hook.  As soon as the window goes down, the prostitute says to my grandfather regarding my grandmother, “Dump the b**ch and make the switch.” Ah, yes, memories.)  To tie it back in, dump Dye and switch to Cust.

Julio Borbon/Chris Davis – Hank Blalock’s loss is Chris Davis and Julio Borbon’s gain.  For Borbon, SAGNOF!  For Davis, pray for less Ks and more power.

Jonathan Sanchez – If you throw out May and June when Sanchez was dirty, and only count the other months when he was filthy, he has a sub-3 ERA.

Scott Podsednik – Never been a big fan of Podsednik’s (though his wife is hot as dog balls), but he’s been terrific just about the whole season.  He’s giving you a poor man’s Victorino right now.  I will call you Feign Victorino.

John Smoltz – Wasn’t that long ago I was pretty down on Smoltz.  Hey, it’s a fantasy baseball ‘pert’s prerogative to change his mind.  Smoltz has a real nice schedule ahead and supposedly Carpenter spotted how he was tipping his pitches.

Leo Nunez – He’s been getting saves for 2 months now.  He’s owned in only 19% of ESPN leagues.  Finally, we figure out how many ESPN leagues have been abandoned.

Eric Young Jr. – SAGNOF!

Tim Hudson – Will return on Monday.  I went over him in this morning’s post.  Go ahead and scroll down.  I’ll wait.  *taps finger, sips water, burps*  Hey, there you are!  Okay, now lower your eyes to the next line.  Lower… Lower… You’re still reading this line.

J.P. Wheelerfour – The Rays have very little room for error.  If Howell continues to blow games, someone will be called in to replace him.  Unfortunately, it’s not clear cut who that somebody will be.

Ryan Roberts – Besides sounding like someone who got their start in the talkies, Roberts has been on fire recently.  Batting near .450 in the last week.

Michael Aubrey – Those Orioles always needing an Aubrey!  Michael Aubrey’s been diddling himself for years in the minors, but the Orioles are giving him time vs. righties.  I wouldn’t pick him up in mixed leagues, but in AL-Only leagues I’d take a flier.

Brandon Allen – Brandon Allen’s giving you his guarantee or your money back!!!  I like Allen better than Aubrey by a lot, but I’m still not crazy for him in mixed leagues.  I also went over him in the September call ups post-a-ma-whoosies.

SELL

Johan Santana – If he’s still owned in your league, your league has an absentee owner.  Send that absentee owner an email telling them they suck.

Charlie Haeger – I hate knuckleballers.  The pitch is too unpredictable for even the pitcher.  At any moment, he could give you a roofie shellacking.  So I won’t own Haeger. But he does have a decent matchup next.  If you have room for risk, do what you do.

Chipper Jones – 420 at-bats.  What is the type of at-bats Adam Jones has right after smoking a bowl? No, good guess though.  It’s the over/under for Chipper this year.  He’s at 381.  So do you think he can hit 15 homers in the next 40 ABs that he’ll spread out over the course of a month?  Or do you think you can find someone more valuable on waivers?  This has a lot to do with your league, but Chipper’s struggling with a wrist injury and could be on the DL by September 15th.  So it might be time to lose the glass Chipper in ten team leagues.