Who was actually good…

Last time, I used ADP data and player values to determine Kyle Lohse was the most under-drafted player of the last five years. Turns out, there are some assumptions in the calculation that could be tweaked, and the result could be a totally different most under-drafted player. Go figure! The methodology was to take the difference between a player’s preseason ADP and his end-of-season rank to determine  “undervalued-ness”. This time we’re still going to take the difference, but it’ll be between the square root of his ADP and the square root of his EOS rank.

Why the square rooting? The reason is to give more weight to better players, which square rooting accomplishes.

For reference, here’s the list from last time (that won one lucky man a Razzball T-Shirt):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Grey pointed this out in yesterday’s recap, but I feel it deserves some special attention here: Ruin Tomorrow Jr. has come out and said that Cesar Hernandez has wrestled the starting second base position away from Chase Utley in Philadelphia. While Utley is being shamed, which is a bummer way to close out a stellar career, the upside here is that we get to see more of Cesar. Cesar has been leading off or hitting second for the anemic Phillies lineup, with ridiculous success. In the past two weeks, Cesar is 26-for-58 with 9 steals and a .508 OBP (1.025 OPS). Yeesh! Cesar has been benefitting from an inflated .535 BABIP and will certainly fall to earth, but the speed should help soften the descent. I don’t think Cesar is the next Dee Gordon, but Gordon-lite? Sure. Cesar could post an OBP in the neighborhood of .340 over a full season with 35 steals, based on his minor league track record.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Move over Billy Hamilton – there’s a new king of SAGNOF in town! Well, maybe not, but Cesar Hernandez (+49%) has been on some kind of roll in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days, the 25-year-old Hernandez has stolen more bases (10) than any MLB player outside of Hamilton, and his .376 batting average ranks 3rd in MLB over that time frame. Sure, his .471 BABIP over the last month is wildly unsustainable for any player, but his MLB-leading 35.5% LD% and 5 bunt hits over that stretch suggest that a BABIP in the .340 range is a reasonable expectation over the remainder of the season, even when factoring in some inevitable regression across the board. His 11.4% BB% and 15.8% K% this season are both well above league average, and his 6.8% Swstr% is sandwiched right in between Dee Gordon and Brett Gardner on the season. Not too shabby.

Worried about playing time moving forward? Chase Utley is still hurt and produced a .179/.257/.275 triple slash line prior to hitting the DL, and Ben Revere is likely to be on the move in the coming weeks. Freddy Galvis? Cody Asche? Darin Ruf? Domonic Brown? Not exactly formidable roadblocks. Philly is likely to be essentially Maikel Franco surrounded by a beer-league softball roster following this season’s trade deadline. Playing time doesn’t appear to be an issue here. Interested in a player who could potentially give you 18-20 steals and a .280 average ROS? Hail Cesar!

Here are a couple of other significant adds and drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

For one day, let’s put our troubles away and bask in Nolan Arenado. No, I want you to shove your troubles further under the rug than they usually are. Here, give me your high school depantsing, the girl that dumped you the day before prom, you walking in on your mother and the mechanic and all your other emotional scars and lift the rug, I’ll slide them under. There. *wipes hands* Now, you are unencumbered to enjoy The Torenado. He hit two homers yesterday to bring his total to 19, and he’s hitting .287 with a .271 BABIP. Yes, he’s actually been unlucky. You can likely tell from the ends of my mustache turning upwards, but he should actually be better. He’s on pace for a 35-homer, .290 season with ease! Again, with some stank — EASE! Help me, Auntie Em, it’s a Torenado and my house is spinning and my Yorkie is barking and I’m landing on a person. Oh, shucks, I landed on Pablo Sandoval. If you followed my rankings, and drafted Arenado. You’re welcome. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Maikellebrew strikes again! And again! Two homers last night for Maikel Franco (4-for-5, 3 runs, 5 RBIs, hitting .312), his 8th and 9th homers of the season in only his 36th game played. That prorates to, like, 189 homers in a season. (Don’t do the math.) Perhaps I’m drenched in jade, the mother jewel of sarcasm. Perhaps my cup runneth over with Blasé like a bored rapper. Perhaps I’m all cosmopolitan and citified and other words Charlie Manuel would call me, but why do I get the feeling Maikel is going to have a great rookie year than disappoint for the next three years? Has Bruce, Heyward, Machado and so many others taken away my innocence? Is that a Black Flag bumper sticker on a Cadillac? Don’t look back, I can never look back. I sure hope I’m wrong, but with each homer by Maikel, his hype grows and he moves further away from my clutches. But, if we are to entertain the insane for a moment, he’s only 22 years old. What does his future hold? Does only the papier-mâché head of Michael Jack Schmidt that sits on Prospect Mike desk hold the answers? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Entering June, it’s becoming a two-horse race between Hannibal Montana (Csifu) and Razzball’s own J-FOH in our dynasty league – the Razznasty. There’s a group duking it out behind them, but both teams have pretty much dominated the league so far. Since our last update, J-FOH has pulled away from R’azbahl Al Ghul and closed the gap on Csifu’s first-place lead. Csifu’s squad continues to pitch incredibly well with an absurd 2.56 team ERA. J-FOH leads the league in homers (by 18), and has gone toe to toe with Csifu in wins and saves. His 3.04 team ERA is good for second in the league while his WHIP is sitting third. Somehow these two teams managed to avoid the starterpocalypse and forgot to invite the rest of us into their bunker. Read on for a look at the full standings, this month’s trades, and our league’s FAAB report.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Finally, the phrase ‘riding my jock’ could be used in the Dodgers’ clubhouse without referencing Alyssa Milano. Joc Pederson went 1-for-3, 2 RBIs with his 15th homer in the 1st game of the doubleheader, then 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his 16th homer in the 2nd game of the doubleheader. He now has a .260 average to go with the 16 homers and 2 steals. Oh, bee tee dubya, he has 30-steal speed, we just haven’t seen it yet! I don’t even own him and he makes me goose pimply and go humma-humma-humma and get warm and fuzzy and make me want to dip my hand into wax and walk into Madame Tussaud’s and say, “I’m Tom Selleck from the third floor.” How is it even possible I like a guy I don’t own? Am I getting empathic unlike Alice in Luther? This isn’t coming out of nowhere either. He had the PCL’s first and only 30/30 year in 2014. First time in 80 years someone had done that in the PCL. Not since Trout has a player gone from rookie to the first round, but this Joc has the tools! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Greetings! Surprise, tis not Grey the Elder God, nor Dan Pants, but I, Tehol Beddict, wordsmith and fantasy baseball extraordinaire. Some of you may have been wondering where my Game of Thrones post was this week (okay, maybe, like, two of you), but truth be told, I was in the type of NyQuil induced coma that would make Anna Nicole Smith (RIP Bae) jealous. (And if you’d like to hear me in my NyQuil induced coma while talking about Game of Thrones, be sure to check out the newest Fantasy Football podcast.) Say one thing for Tehol Beddict, he loves NyQuil. You see, when I’m sick, I despise doing anything, so I just skip the DayQuil and just stay home and take the night-time stuff, dozing off every few hours, awaiting the end of the torture that is the common cold. During these moments of sedation, I’ve realized some interesting side effects from NyQuil that I believe could change an entire industry. And what industry is that you ask? The porn industry of course! That tasty green liquid makes it extremely difficult to orgasm and also thickens the Au jus, making for the ultimate money shot! The only problem I foresee with introducing this into the adult entertainment world is that, being that it makes one so tired, how can one bring the energy forth to really slam it home? An IV with sugar free Red Bull perhaps? Either way, I think I’ve found something… Wait, am I supposed to be writing about baseball? [Jay’s Note: One can only hope…] Ahhh, yes.

Speaking of drugs, Josh Hamilton is BACK! Back with the team with which he rose to fame. Back to dropping double-dongage on the opposition as if they were Paula Abdul on a Tuesday night in autumn (do-do ya love me!?). I was high on Hamilton (no pun intended, MAYBE) before the season began, but now that he’s back in Texas, where he’s comfortable, I couldn’t be higher… unless I took a double dose of NyQuil. NEVER DO THAT!  I’m sure Hambone was immediately swooped in leagues he wasn’t previously owned after yesterday’s two-bomb performance, but needless to say, if he’s there, go head and make that happen friends.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball, TAKE HEED!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m taking questions after my Ted Talks on fantasy baseball. I adjust my headset mic, pull on my turtleneck. Going Steve Jobs today wasn’t the best of ideas. This turtleneck is itchy. “You, in the front row.” “First off, the stuff you said blew my mind. I never knew electromagnetism had anything to do with fantasy baseball. Your square root stuff seemed like it came from a supercomputer. But a supercomputer with a mustache. And older supercomputers fawning over it. Supercomputer Cougars, if you will. So, my question for you is who does Kyle Hendricks remind you of?” “Alex Wood. Next question, you.” The Sun-Maid Raisin Box Girl stands up, “Do you know I’m a Cougar?” *shoots up in bed, dripping in sweat* Whoa, I just had the weirdest dream. Left Side of My Brain, “Or was that reality?!” AH!!! So, Hendricks pitched a gem the other day. His 2nd gem in a row, and I took a long hard look at him, then didn’t mention him the other day because I wanted to highlight him here. I agree with Dream Grey, he does look like Alex Wood. Only Alex Wood when he’s on point. Right now, Hendricks has a 7 K-rate, 1.9 BB/9 and a 3.77 xFIP. Wood throws a curve more, but their velocities are very close on the fastball, too. Both have 50%+ ground ball rates, which makes them prone to BABIP. Hendricks is not a potential ace, but he should be owned in far more leagues and looks like a solid fantasy #3 with #2 upside based on luck. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I want to get back to sleep and see the Sun-Maid Raisin Box Girl. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

At first, it was reported that Alberto Callaspo rejected the trade to the Dodgers. Leaving Alex Guerrero (1-for-2) to stare at Callaspo’s smugshot-slash-you mad bro? face. Then, later in the evening, Callaspo apparently approved the trade of him going to the Dodgers and Juan Uribe heading the other way. A commenter mentioned how in the preseason, the management didn’t have faith in Mattingly to start Pederson, so they traded away Kemp. It’s a fun theory. One that might have a morsel of truth, but I think this trade might backfire. Here’s a scenario for our five girl readers: imagine you were trying to get your man to change their yellow-pitted t-shirt, so you remove all the stained t-shirts from their hamper and throw them away, even his Bob Marley Buffalo Soldier t-shirt. When he realizes all his stained shirts are gone, what does he do? Does he wear the new shirts you bought him? Or does he scribble an oddly racist-looking Bob Marley on a hand towel and tape it to his chest? Mattingly could play Alex Guerrero at third with Uribe gone, but Justin Turner had started at 3rd base five times in the last week, not Guerrero, even with Uribe still in LA, and Callaspo is a 3rd baseman. So Uribe’s gone, but I think Mattingly just wears a masking-taped, hand towel now. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?