You know how when you move out of a place, you throw out a majority of your stuff, but a few things you just slide into the cubbyhole behind the washer/dryer? Maybe nothing significant. Just something to leave your mark, like an old pair of underwear. Then in a few years, maybe ten, you go back to your old place, knock on the door and ask to see what they’ve done with the place. Once inside, you ask if you can launder your pants and while in the basement, you check for your old underwear, and there they are. You shake the rat droppings off them, breath them in and they still smell of you. What? You’ve never done this? Okay, you’re weird, but Jake Peavy did, and now he’s going to get to smell his old gotchies that he left in the NL West. San Francisco has a lot of hills and their pitching staff has gone over all of them. They’d like Petit more if he had more T’s and E’s in his last name. Want to spot a Giants starter in San Fran? Find a hill, go over it. They’re on the other side. This is a boost for Peavy’s value. Obvi! He had a 7.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9, which is borderline streamer in most shallower mixed leagues, but that was the AL East, and even while he’s been in the AL the last few years (while not pitching that great), he’s been solid vs. NL teams. They have no DH! The pitcher hits! Etc. Etc. Etc. Last night against the NL West’s best offense outside of Coors, he had a line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks. I’d take a flyer on Peavy in all leagues, and his next matchup on the Stream-o-Nator says it agrees. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before we commence with the jamming and the cramming and the whatnot, let your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru pull on your dirty turban about something here – The Razzball Fantasy Football 32 in 32 in 32 Tour kicks off August 4 in Seattle! The Goo and that podcastin’ broadcastin’ master Nick C-A-P-O-Z-Z-I will be hitting the road for a 50,000 mile frenzy of fantasy ballin’ depravity that’ll make Motley Crue’s 1984 tour look downright virtuous. Razzball Radio will have shows from all 32 NFL cities and I’ll be posting the daily dirt on the football side of things so you can follow along. We hope to meet, greet and tip a few back with all you Razzicians, Razzaholics, chronic Razzturbators and four girl readers. There are still some spots available, so get your tix here and you could win a trip to Vegas with the Razzball crew.
If you’re still with me, let’s high five and chest bump because that means your fake baseball team is still in the hunt. We are about to hit the most important month of the fantasy season. August is the time of year where the contenders separate from the pretenders and fantasy legends are made. If your team is muddled in the middle of mediocrity, it’s time to make some bold moves and push toward the top. If your team is king of the leader board, a minor roster tweak or twerk could be the move that wins you all the cash, prizes, glory and glory holes that come with a fake baseball championship. If your team is stuck in last place, may I suggest fantasy cricket, getting a girlfriend or binge drinking – see you next season.
This week’s jammers and crammers are a collection ex’s we thought we had sworn off forever. Much like my ex-girlfriend Brenda, they are hard to resist when they call at 2 a.m. promising everything will be different this time. Then, after a couple days of bliss, you wake up to find your wallet gone, the tires slashed on your car and a bunny boiling on the stove. However, we be desperate as Ryan Zimmerman, George Springer and Troy Tulowitzki hit the DL. Who saw that coming? “I did, Guru.” Brenda! The court order states you have to stay at least 500 feet away from this blog. It’s time to Jam it or Cram it!Please, blog, may I have some more?
We’re well into the second half of the season now… are you still with us? You haven’t given up yet? Good. Fantasy baseball is a game of stamina, and if you’re still scouring the waiver wire while others are quickly losing interest or preparing for their fantasy football drafts, now is your chance to make a run. Me? I’m still sore after losing Tanaka. Not to mention Tulo walked out on me when I needed him the most. Regardless, I like to think we’re more than just providers of fantasy advice here at Razzball, we’re also a sound piece for all your fantasy frustrations. I always tell my friend(s)– “don’t ask me how I’m doing, ask me how my team is doing”, because more often than not, that is deciding factor for my mood. So today, feel free to sound off in the comments why you’re so upset with your team right now. Why won’t Harper just hit five homers in a week? Why won’t anyone trade with you? Really Stephen Strasburg? Really!? Why did you draft Justin Verlander and why didn’t you draft Jose Abreu? Here’s your chance to let it all out, because god knows your spouse/significant other/barber/sibling/probation officer/mother/cat doesn’t want to hear about your GD fantasy team. Well, I feel your pain my over-the-internet-friend. And I’m listening.
Here’s what happened in fantasy baseball Friday night:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Something many of you don’t realize, but one of the first people to talk to a player that was just traded is his new team’s tailor. The Yankees tailor got on the phone with Chase Headley to find out what size jersey he wears, and Headley looked down, beaming to be out of Petco, and said, “Giuseppe, you might want to take out my inseam too.” I wonder if the flowers smelled a little better as Headley stepped into Yankee Stadium for the first time. Sure, in contrast to his hour long ride through the Bronx, getting lost in Hunts Point, anything would smell better, but it can’t be worse, can it? His career in away games prorated over a 162 game season is: 79/19/79/.286/14. Doode’s David Wright! Well, almost. Which is sad for Headley and Wright. More sad for Wright. What a guy does in only half a season can be anywhere from bupkis to I-want-to-bump-grind-and-kiss. Will Headley suddenly be mixed league worthy? Yeah, for at least a flyer, if nothing else. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Save Vulture is no ordinary animal. Or Jordanian animal, as my autocorrect wanted me to write. The Save Vulture doesn’t need much sunlight. The Save Vulture doesn’t need water in its purest form; it can distill water from cola, in a process called sodasynthesis. The Save Vulture is strictly a meat eater. It’s even been known to remove vegetables that are in the proximity of meat it plans on devouring. The one thing it considers a vegetable is a potato and that’s in chip form, which it consumes daily. The Save Vulture is not a social animal, but it does have close ties to its mother. Sometimes staying in the nest for 35 to 40 years. Once it leaves the nest, it usually latches onto a partner that nurtures it like a mother would. The Save Vulture doesn’t work much, except six months a year when it’s scrolling through a fantasy waiver wire for potential closers. The Save Vulture’s most active time is the last two weeks of July when closers could change teams, thus making a new reliever a closer. The Save Vulture preys on the weakness of others who lose their closer. This year, one of the most likely targets for The Save Vulture is Ken Giles with Jonathan Papelbon likely being traded. The Save Vulture is also flying over Huston Street, waiting to swoop in on Joaquin Benoit‘s carcass. Do you think The Save Vulture isn’t looking at Neftali Feliz if Joakim Soria is traded? You must be Joakim. Some desperate Save Vultures are talking about Koji Uehara being traded and Edward Mujica taking over. Not to be confused with Huston Street, but Chad Qualls on a Houston St. could go to a contender and Jesse Crain or Tony Sipp or Josh Fields or Jose Veras or Craig Biggio in a bad wig would step in. Could LaTroy Hawkins get moved? You bet your white Blackmon! In that case, Adam Ottavino or Rex Brothers would step in. The Save Vulture is even monitoring Matt Lindstrom‘s rehab, knowing if he’s healthy in the next few weeks, he could take over again. The Save Vulture doesn’t bathe itself, unless you count spilled soda, but it is the most diligent about stealing closers this time of year, I suggest you do the same. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Going back to one of my old favorites, that I didn’t like for awhile, then did like, then loved, then hated, then should’ve loved but hated, then was nonplussed about, then Googled nonplussed to make sure I used it right, then took a nap, then clapped my hands, shot up out of bed and kissed my ‘Donna Martin graduates’ screenshot, scrubbed my undercarriage with my Q-Bert loofah and sat down to write about why you should sell Anibal Sanchez. Anibal’s K-rate is in the dumper. Big enough sample size to be concerned — that’s not what she said! Huh? His velocity is off. More concern. That dirty Sanchez! He hasn’t been great, but he’s been much worse when you throw out favorable luck. His xFIP is at 3.91, and he looks similar to the pitcher he was in 2010 when he had a 7 K/9 and a 3.55 ERA. Only he was in Florida then and against NL teams. I could see Anibal’s ERA continuing to rise and I don’t see much relief for his lack of Ks (currently a 6.9 K/9). 6.9 K/9? Who are you, Chase Anderson? Who the hell is Chase Anderson? I wouldn’t sell Anibal for tickets to see PM Dawn, but I would explore options. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now that I’m married Jimmy Carter’s line, “I’ve looked on a lot of women with lust. I’ve committed adultery in my heart many times.” Really stands out to me. I don’t necessarily want to think about Jimmy Carter in lust, or even contemplating lust. The thing he doesn’t say is if he wasn’t married, he’d be lusting too. Men are men, and Jimmy Carter is no different. Jimmy Carter is one tightly wound ball of lust, and probably hooked Clinton up with Lewinsky. Jimmy Carter is a pimp! If Jimmy Carter was president in the 2000′s, he probably would’ve had Outkast to the White House and would’ve been like, “What’s colder than our relations with the Middle East? Ice cold!” In that similar vein, I lust after rookie pitchers. They are so dang sexy prior to actually pitching in the major leagues. Jimmy Nelson is just another. I like him a lot, and glad to see Marco Estrada was replaced by him. From Nelson, could see a 9+ K/9 and a middling walk rate. Due to the walk rate, that has ballooned at times, he could be absolute death — like games of 5 IP, 6 ER death. He could also run over the NL with games of 6 IP, 8 Ks. I’d grab him in all leagues for the upside, but be wary of the downside. As Jimmy Carter also once said, “You can do what you have to do, and sometimes you can do it even better than you think you can. Speaking of can, that’s where I like to stick my peanuts. I said PEANUTS!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Manny Machado‘s epitaph: He always found more success throwing a bat at a ball. Better than Salvador Perez’s: Together again! Machado wasn’t just struggling, he was like that friend of yours that not only is having a rotten time at a party, but also sucks the prettiest girls in the room into his sad funk of despair and before long, the girls are like, “I don’t want to go out and get drunk and party and potentially hook up with you. Your friend Manny Machado is too depressed.” The buzz kill friend. Yesterday, Machado went 5-for-6, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 8th homer, and fourth homer in his last seven games (skipping the suspension games). About time he listened to your advice, did a body shot off the tummy of the girl that wants to be a physical therapist and cheered up! I don’t own Machado anywhere this year, due to the knee issue coming into the season, but he just turned 22 years old (almost literally; his birthday was Sunday) and I’ll be all over Machado again next year. Of course, if you can acquire him in a trade this year, by all means, which sounds like it was said by Malcolm X’s less militant brother, Bobby X. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Every major leaguer knows that there is absolutely no crying in baseball. Then there’s Hall of Fame speeches. I’m preparing mine right now for the DFS Hall of Shame for last week, and believe me, there’s plenty of wet spots on the notecards. After an abysmal call on Kazmir as my top choice last week I’ve had to take my lumps, swallow my pride and get back out there. I apologize to all of you and shed a tear on your behalf if you listened to me last week. No reason to stay attached to the whipping post so I pushed harder with my most active week on Draftkings to date and I’ve been able to regain some of the swagger with a 70% gain in bankroll since that fabled day.
With all that said, there is one thing becoming true that we all can’t ignore: The San Diego Padres are the most pathetic offense I have watched in my 10+ years of analyzing baseball. They are the living embodiment of AAAA. Chase Headley, Jedd Gyorko and Carlos Quentin were supposed to be the only guys who busted them out of that mold and they have been the worst of the bunch. When Seth Smith is your best offering, you have no offering.Please, blog, may I have some more?