Fantasy Baseball Advice

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

Unlike our last team, Rudy and I co-drafted this team.  So for every bad pick, Rudy and I have someone to blame.  Neither will take it personal.  We managed to work Elijah Dukes onto this team, who’s a total dwyck.  This is a 20 team, 5×5, roto league and still is, so we have more arms than Bruce Willis.  Get well soon, Guru!  The team breaks down like this:  Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, 3 Outfielders, Utility, 2 SPs, 2 RPs, 3 Ps and a 4 man bench.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball team and some thoughts from the draft:

Round 1 – Ryan Braun – We skipped A-Rod and Utley.  Our thought process went like this.  With only one position player for each position, 3 outfielders and one utility man, we figured outfielders would make up the majority of the teams’ Utility spots and might even end up in the bench spots.  So you’re looking at drafting about 100 outfielders vs. 20 3rd basemen, 20 2nd basemen, etc.  Since there was no MI or CI, we figured there wouldn’t be many teams that had more than one 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, etc. before we drafted one.

Round 2 – Lance Berkman – It was between him and Kendry Morales.  We decided to go with a guy who we felt was slightly more boring, but safer.  Safer helps when there’s absolutely no one on waivers.

Round 3/4 – Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee – We also figured there would be a lot of pitchers drafted, since each team needed at least 5 starters.  In a 20 team league, two top starters, as we have, should easily get us a near-top finish in 3 of 5 pitching categories.  (WHIP, ERA and Ks.  There’s no accounting for Wins, but we should do okay there too.)  Now we just needed to take a few flier starters later on.

Round 5 – Gordon Beckham – This is Rudy and I on IM while drafting.  Me, “C’mon, let’s take some upside!”  Him, “You and your upside.  We need safe guys who will produce.”  Me, “Our team looks like a contender… In 2006.  We need upside!”  Him, “You want Beckham?”  Me, “Please.”

Round 6 – Johnny Damon – Hold the above dialogue about Gordon Beckham in the mirror.

Round 12 – Alcides Escobar – Rudy and I both tend to punt shortstop (if we don’t get Hanley) and try to get steals from our shorstop later on.  If I remember correctly, we had Everth Cabrera and Alcides to choose from and we needed steals.  Alcides seems more likely to hit at the top of the order for more ABs than EverCab.  Honestly, these guys are such tomato-tomahto at this point, in another draft tomorrow I might go with EverCab.  To read further, Alcides Escobar sleeper post.

Round 13 – Chase Headley – I tried for Snider, but Rudy wasn’t having it.  Rudy tried for Conor Jackson; I wasn’t having it.  We settled for Headley.  If Headley were on any team other than the Padres, he would’ve received his own sleeper post.  Then again, maybe he has a sleeper post and I’ve forgotten.  Damn, Headley, you inspire excitement!

Round 14 – Kelly Johnson – He’ll be solid on Runs, fair on average, hit 15 homers and 10 steals.  Explain to me how Yunel’s better than him one hundred picks earlier.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *rests head in hand, taps finger, yawns*  Okay, then.

Round 15 – Casey McGehee – Least favorite pick of the draft.  I really think McGehee ends up back on the bench or in a utility role for the Brewers.  I don’t see him approaching last year’s numbers.  I think Gamel, who might not even start the year with the Brewers, will outproduce McGehee on the year.  Anyway, it was the 283rd pick of the draft and we needed some flexibility.

Round 16 – Clayton Richard – A Padres pitcher with a near 7 K/9 and projected to have a 4 ERA at pick 318?  No problem there for me.

Round 17 – Elijah Dukes – Some other guys taken this round were:  Jeff Weaver, Mike Adams, Chris Getz, Pineiro, Cahill, Maicer Izturis and Luke Scott.  To answer your question, no Chumlee wasn’t drafting for the guy who took Weaver.  That was autodrafted.  The rest of those guys I believe were present.  I always preach not to take bench hitters, but that’s for 10 team, 12 team… 14 team… Maybe in 16 team leagues… In a 20 team league, it’s tumbleweeds on waivers.

Round 19 – Jeff Clement – A’la Buddy from Cake Boss, “Now that’s how you punt catcher!”

Round 20 – Gaby Sanchez – We were looking at Kris Medlen and Carlos Santana but both were scooped right before our pick.  As for Gaby, he (she?) is an upside pick that is at the do or die stage of his (her?) career.  If he (she?) does, this could be our best value pick.

Overall – When we ran the numbers, we’re in a three-way first place tie in the preseason standings with 131 Points.  We didn’t necessarily go into the draft wanting to dominate pitching vs. hitting, but Rudy ran the Point Shares for the league and there were much better values for pitching.  To come out of a 20-team league with two of the top 10 pitchers in baseball (F-Her and Cliff Lee) is a huge advantage — one that would be impossible to attain with just 2 hitters.  Plus, we got Filthy Sanchez, a Johnson and Headley. What’s not to love?

With more outfielders than G-Unit feuds, we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These guys may seem like they’re not worth the effort, but remember last year Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Justin Upton were found here.  As with the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where tiers start and stop are mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “Yawnstipating power outfielders.”  Cuddyer probably could’ve/should’ve/Elliott Gould’ve ranked higher than this, but I think he had a career year that won’t be repeated.  A career year that I went over in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, where you’ll also find his projections.

42. Brad Hawpe – Maybe it’s just me but Brad Hawpe screams a platoon player to me.  A platoon player that only plays the 1st half of the year? Ah, cute, random italicized voice.  No, he shouldn’t play vs. lefties.  Also, watch out if he’s shipped out of Coors.  (An idea that has me foaming at the mouth.  Well, that and my Diet Coke and Mentos diet.)  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280

43. Jason Kubel – I liked Kubel going into 2009.  He’s more or less the same this year, but the only difference is how people are perceiving him.  Kubel had value when he was a last round draft pick.  There’s no value when you have to draft him like he’s actually going to stay on your team.  Trust me, he won’t.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285

44. Vernon Wells – He had wrist surgery in November.  Blech.  I’m really only ranking him because I don’t want people to ask me if I forgot him.  I didn’t, but you should.  2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10

45. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Snider.  I call this tier, “Back into outfielders that I would draft.”  Hart will be 28 in March and 2009 was a lost season; he battled injuries for almost two months.  His declining HR/FB is cause for some alarm, so he doesn’t come without risk.  But when you’re choosing between Kubel or Wells or Hart, I trust you’ll make the right choice.  2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17

46. Dexter Fowler – I went over my Fowler fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35

47. Colby Rasmus – I went over him in a Colby Rasmus sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14

48. Travis Snider – I’m randy on Travis.  As long as the Blue Jays don’t Kemp him all season and move him up the order then he could be in for a huge breakout.  There was also a Travis Snider sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265/3

49. Drew Stubbs – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Brantley.  I call this tier, “Upside speed picks to make Ron LeFlore proud.”  I’ll like Stubbs more when he definitely has the job in center.  Though, even with the job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose time to other outfielders, especially if Taveras is still there.  Stubbs also has a problem with Ks.  2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35

50. Michael Brantley – It’s the Riverdance guy!  This ranking is really contingent on playing time and the speed he offers.  Don’t expect much else.  2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30

51. Elijah Dukes – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to The Big FraGu.  I call this tier, “Your back’s against the wall and you really need upside.” Last year was the first time in his career that Dukes didn’t have any trouble with the law.  He also didn’t hit.  Let’s hope in 2010 he catches manslaughter charges and hits 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/15 <– optimistic but whatever

52. Chase Headley - I like him way better at 3rd base.  In fact, I already went over him there at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

53. Chris Coghlan – Looking at Coghlan’s numbers, he looks like a cheap Denard Dawg.  That’s neither a compliment nor an insult.  To put that in overused slang terms, it is what it is.  Coghlan just needs to show more of that speed he showed in the minors.  Would I want Coghlan in my outfield?  Not unless I had a lot of speed and power on my team and felt I needed average and Runs.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15

54. Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu probably gets more pub on Razzball than he should because of his most excellent nickname.  His ceiling is what he did last year, but he could do it again.  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13

55. Carlos Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Mags.  I call this tier, “Old guys with no upside.”  Listen — or read as the case probably is — a lot of these guys will probably outperform some of the guys above, but that doesn’t mean I’d necessarily want them on all teams.  I tend to go for steady performers in the early slots of the draft, then I take fliers later on.  But if you have an outfield of, say, Justin Upton and Adam Jones, I could see taking Carlos Guillen to balance upside with stability.  As for Guillen, he was injury-prone when he was young.  Now he’s 35 years old.  Oy.  2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6

56. Ryan Ludwick – Wait, wasn’t Ludwick in a promising tier last year? Yeah, and now he’s  in an over-the-hill one.  2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3

57. J.D. Drew – He’s actually stayed relatively healthy recently and the numbers have been pretty yawnstipating.  Hopefully, his brother, Stephen, can step it up Michael Voltaggio-style and help Mother Drew choose a favorite.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

58. Milton Bradley – He has the inverse Elijah Dukes thing going on.  When he’s good, he’s good, when he’s bad, he’s so bad.  (<–That would mean the exact opposite if you were to hear it in an R&B song.)  2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5

59. Mike Cameron – Went over Mike Cameron for fantasy when he was signed by the Sawx.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14

60. Magglio Ordonez – You can pretty much tell how stodgy a fantasy baseball site is by where they rank Magglio.  CBS has him 49th.  Barring his insane BABIP year of ‘07, he hasn’t really been great since 2002 and now has been below average and down right bad the last two years, respectively.  He’s AARP Mags.  2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  Last year, I punted 3rd base knowing I could get Mark Reynolds late.  This year, Stewart’s my sleeper du jour, but because of the lack of 3rd base options, he’s not even making it into the 10th round of most drafts.  That’s a bad sign.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Alex Rodriguez – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for A-Rod’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Longoria’s projections.

3. David Wright – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Wright’s projections.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Sandoval.  I call this tier, “You didn’t get a top 3rd baseman, so here you are.”  Zimmerman finally came into his own last year.  The homers might plateau around 30 and the average probably won’t go above .300… Then again, he’s only 25 years old and he has some speed potential…. Then again, the Nats have put the brakes on him to avoid injury.  Either either way, Zimmerman’s on the rise with solid power, Runs, RBIs and average.  Hmm… Sounds a lot like Youuuuuk.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Youkilis’s projections.

6. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Reynolds’s projections.

7. Pablo Sandoval – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Sandoval’s projections.

8. Chone Figgins – This is a new tier.  This is a one man tier.  I call this tier, “You better have some serious power from your middle infielders to support Figgy’s dearth.” Figgy’s Dearth is also a great speed metal band.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

9. Gordon Beckham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Beltre.  I call this tier, “Upside, no upside, upside, no upside, no upside.”  I went over my Gordon Beckham fantasy already.  At that post, I said, “Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.”  Then I said, “It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.”  Finally, I said, “I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.”  Hmm… Gotta work on what quotes I pull.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

10. Michael Young – Which percentage doesn’t fit — 8.6%, 6.9%, 7.2% or 14.9%?  If you answered anything other than 14.9%, you might’ve stopped at the “or.”  Fair enough, I do that sometimes.  Those percentages were his last four years of HR/FB.  He’s really not a 20 homer hitter or.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

11. Ian Stewart – I went over Stewart’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  He also received an Ian Stewart sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.

12. Aramis Ramirez – He’s Pablo Sandoval with injury concerns, a slightly lower average and no upside.  Aramis is only 31 so you may not want to write him off, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2006 so I’m writing him off.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

13. Chipper Jones – Last year, Chipper played in the most games in a season since 2003 and he had his worst season ever.  Hey, Chipper, maybe don’t push yourself so hard to play injured.  ‘09 wasn’t a sign that he can’t still hit .310, just some bad luck.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5

14. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “You might want to drop these guys from your team before May 1st.”  God knows Beltre had his balls busted enough last year, but in 449 ABs, he hit 8 homers.  So did Gregg Zaun.  The move to Fenway has to help a bit, right?  Sure, or at least that’s what I said.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10

15. Mark DeRosa – Is DeRosa a 20 homer hitter or a platoon player?  That’s something to *pinkie to mouth* ponderosa.  2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3

16. Jorge Cantu – I could’ve put Casey Blake here, but what fun is that?  Wait, what fun is Cantu? Yeah, true.  Cantu hit 7 homers in April then took a Taco Bell-sized dump for 4 months.  The batting woes may be attributed to a sore wrist.  In September, he started hitting again.  May have been due to his wrist coming around.  Then again, maybe you’ll want to drop him by mid-April.  It’s called a flier, ya’ll.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

17. Chris Davis – Only has 11 games at 3rd base so Davis may not have eligibility in your league.  This is a new tier.  This is the last tier and I call it, “Your last chance for some upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Davis’s projections.

18. Jake Fox – Went over my Jake Fox fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250

19. Alex Gordon – You know that scene in Notting Hill when Hugh Grant walks through the market and it goes from autumn to spring?  What, not lame enough?  Okay, here’s a lamer example.  You know when Bella is staring out the window in New Moon and the seasons change as the camera goes around her?  Yeah, that’s Alex Gordon staring at his career.  He’ll only be 26 in 2010 and he’s still capable of the upside he hinted at, oh, 4 years ago when he hit 29 homers and stole 22 bases in Double-A and followed that with a 15/14 year with the Royals in 2007, but it’s really getting to be now or never.  2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12

20. Casey McGehee – I went over McGehee’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

20 1/2. Andy LaRoche – This guy needs Troy Dunn to find his upside.  I contemplated leaving LaRoche off entirely because I can’t imagine him putting together a season to make him worthwhile for fantasy, except for stretches when he can be grabbed off of waivers.  2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3

After the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s some guys, but these two stand out:

Chase Headley – First off, I’d draft Headley before LaRoche.  I only placed them in this order because I wanted to highlight Headley.  So consider him highlighted.  Headley can get 25 homers and steal 10 bases.  Will he?  Who am, Nostradumbass?  I don’t know.  But someone who can produce that should be getting more pub than he has.  I’m righting wrongs like a modern day superhero.  Well, not really, but I am wearing a cape.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10

Brandon Wood – The Angels trust him at 3rd about as much as The Old Man trusts Chumlee, but they gotta give Wood the keys to the Imperial at some point.  Don’t they?  2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7 <–optimistic, but whatever

Took part in another mock draft the other day.  This mock team didn’t mock up as well as my last 2010 fantasy baseball mock team.  I underestimated how low catchers would fall.  In the 12th round — a round and/or around where I usually like to start thinking of catchers in 12 team leagues — Montero was staring at me in my Beetlejuiced-sized head (that picture of me above the post is actual size) and I just couldn’t turn him down at the 154th pick overall.  But then Soto sat there for another 5 rounds.  If I would’ve known I could’ve took Soto with the 200th pick, I would’ve took a better 4th outfielder, a better 3rd baseman and a better corner infidel.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Such is life.  I still think my team is solid.  The draft was a Mixed league, 5×5, 4 outfielders, an MI, a CI and 9 pitchers, any combination.  (FYI, rankings will start again Tuesday morning.  I’m on birthday-long-weekend until tonight.)  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball mock team, some thoughts on certain players and where I drafted them:

Round 2 – Jose Reyes – Usually when I draft speed of Reyes’s caliber, I ignore speed for the rest of the draft. I didn’t do that this time because I wanted to illustrate an employable strategy that might need its own post. When my crush of the moment, Ian Stewart, was drafted in the 8th round, I knew I was not getting a 3rd baseman. I had my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself in my back pocket, who I knew would be around because appropriately no one wants him.  But more on him in a second.  So to make up for my lack of a 3rd baseman, I drafted too heavy on speed.  I really don’t need Andrus and Reyes and the 10-20 steals I’m getting from others.  With extra speed, I’d be able to trade for someone.  Reyes for Zimmerman?  Andrus for Chipper?  Andrus for Beckham?  Reyes for Youkilis?  If I would’ve just took, say, Mark DeRosa at 3rd base when I took Andrus then I wouldn’t have a 3rd base or a shortstop to trade.  It’s obviously not an ideal strategy.  You should try and leave the draft with a team you want, not one you want to trade.  But it’s a strategy to keep in mind if your back’s against the wall.

Round 5 – Josh Hamilton – I didn’t believe the huge value coming out of 2008 and I don’t believe he’s washed up either.  In the 5th round, that’s solid value.  Plus, the great thing about Hamilton is if he starts the season hot, his value will soar because he’s the golden child.  Or is that the golden armed child?  Either way…

Round 6/7 – Johan Santana and Adam Wainwright – I’m sorry, but when I see Johan fall into the 70s in a draft, I’m taking him. The Wainwright pick was probably unnecessary, but I felt like my first five picks — Utley, Reyes, Votto, Grandy and Hamilton — are so stacked that I could’ve afforded the double starter pick.  I could conceivably have 5 top 10 overall picks from my first 7 rounds.

Round 8 – Raul Ibanez – Raul was not the best outfielder on the board when I took him.  He was the best threat for power and RBIs on the board.  I could’ve took Double I or Alfonso, but Torii’s less of a power threat and gives value with steals, which I didn’t want, and Soriano’s too risky for my team.

Round 9 – Francisco Rodriguez – Some ‘perts refuse to draft saves ever, to the point of absurdity.  K-Rod at the 111th pick overall is value.

Round 10 – Matt Garza – The one American League starter I drafted.  He K’d a decent amount in the minors but he didn’t show that until last year.  In 2010, he’ll continue to show it.

Round 16 – Ryan Ludwick – I don’t even particularly like Ludwick.  I think he can easily end up waiver wire fodder, but I was drafting heavy on power late and he was one of the few guys left.

Round 17/20 – Jonathan Sanchez and Johnny Cueto – 2nd mock draft in a row that I’ve taken both of them.  You might just see a sleeper post about each.

Round 18 – Chase Headley – Finally, my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself.  It’s not easy to get excited about a Padres hitter.  I realize this.  I almost wrote a sleeper post on Headley, but I couldn’t summon up the enthusiasm.  Headley had a good 2nd half last year.  Optimistic projections have him at a .300 average and 25 homers.  With Kouzmanoff, um, off to Oakland, Headley will get to play 3rd base, where he looks more comfortable on the field, which could help him at bat.  Okay, I’ve said enough about him.  After all, as I mentioned in the Reyes blurb, I drafted so I could trade for an adequate 3rd baseman.