Fantasy Baseball Advice

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Freddy Sanchez limped off the field with a knee injury.  Presumably, the same knee he’s been nursing since his days with Pittsburgh.  Without his services, the Giants probably would have still finished in third, but a game or two further out, so no regrets losing Alderson.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Barry Zito – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners.  Baked Zito.

Ted Lilly – Scratched from his next start because of shoulder soreness.  Stop scratching him, and start fixing him!  You hold your breath waiting for him to return this year and you’re going to turn (Cubbie) blue.

Jose Reyes – Took batting practice yesterday.  Says he still wants to return.  Probably wants to check out the new Mets stadium.

Chase Headley – 5-for-6, HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, I’m gonna say this was his best game ever.  This might be his best week.  Even if he doesn’t play another game.  If you grabbed him for the short schedule day yesterday, you’re a genius.  They should bronze your brain.  I don’t know who they is, but you probably do, Brain Who Should Be Bronzed-ee.

Wade LeBlanc – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  This was, “The One Where He Pitches vs. the Pirates.”

Garrett Jones – Hit his 20th homer last night in his 269th AB.  He only has 38 Runs and 40 RBIs.  Yay, Pirates!

Heath Bell – Blew the save.  Unfortunately, Luke Gregerson wasn’t much better.

Matt Wieters – Didn’t do much yesterday, but he’s now batting third and he’s hitting around .450 in the last week.

Derek Lowe – 5 IP, 3 ER.  Blister problem might’ve caused his early exit, or maybe with the way he pitched vs. the Mets this year he just wanted out while the gettin’ was good.

Martin Prado – 3-for-4 and batting around .450 for the last week as Kelly Johnson was seen picking dirt out of his cleats.

Mike Cameron – 2 HRs yesterday to get to 21.  Someone, somewhere in March of next year is going to look at his final numbers and think, “Hey, maybe I should take Mike Cameron with my last outfield spot.”  You, hopefully, will mock them.

Derrek Lee – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and a HR yesterday.  Beggars shouldn’t, uh, ya know, choose, but if only Lee would’ve also stole ten bases… Or five… Or one.   With his leg span, it’s like a five foot lead and seven steps away from the next base.

Tom Gorzelanny – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He gets the Ain’ts next, but I’d stay away if your ratios are at all in danger or if you have a pacemaker.

Mark DeRosa – 2 HRs yesterday.  After only hitting one homer in August, these were his first homers in September.  Hits homers in bunches (and pairs, obviously).  Might have another two or three homers left in his bat for the remainder of the year.

Daniel Hudson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  You know that guy you see when you search for Tim Hudson on the waiver wire?  Here he is!  Great news, he has more than a K/IP in the minors.  Bad news, his control is iffy at times.  Just okay news, he’s worth a pick up in AL-Only or very deep keeper leagues because he should have the opportunity to impress next year.

Brian Fuentes – Got the save yesterday.  Scioscia might just be messing with you with the Jepsen thing, but Fuentes did kinda face lefties (Swisher, who’s weaker vs. lefties, Posada, who he walked, and Cano, who is a lefty).

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Still not really a guy I’d take a chance on in the final two weeks.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets the peasant Royals next time out, but he hasn’t been great against them this year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 6 ER.  It was almost like Fausto Carmona was ghost riding the Wandwagon last night.  Still, he has a sub-3 ERA on the year.  You don’t get mad at the Wandwagon.  He took you places and showed you things you never thought you’d see this year.

Alex Gordon revealed yesterday that he would require hip surgery and would miss a few months.  Willie Bloomquist owners rejoice!  Obviously this isn’t great news for Gordon.  That’s 99 red balloons for your fearless leader, Grey.  I loved me some Alex Gordon.  Though, as fate would have it, I didn’t actually get him on any team.  Not by design.  I luckily backed up into that one.  You can DL him, but I’d cut bait if you have anyone else in the DL slot.  Gordon’s not coming back for a while and even when he was around, he was tentative at best.  It’s going to be real hard for me to sell anyone on drafting him next year.  But I will try!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

LaTroy Hawkins – Notched a save as Jose Valverde was held out of the game because of a sore back.  The Astros are making it sound like Valverde’s back isn’t much of an issue.  Yeah, and the Orioles wanted Wieters to work on his D.  And the Mariners brought Griffey back so they can win games not as a PR stunt.  And the Rockies were happy with the value they received for Holliday.  These clubs lie through their teeth.  Valverde may be fine and Hawkins is a cuddle boy, but all that means nothing if Hawkins is getting the saves.  If you have room, own him.

Alex Rodriguez – Took BP and hit the ball out of the park a few times.  Afterwards he said he hadn’t felt that good since his cousin was sticking him in the ass with steriods.

Cliff Lee – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Had a lot of baserunners to only give up one run.  Am I always glass is half empty with Lee?  Yes, yes I am.

Kosuke Fukudome – 3rd homer.  Looks like a pattern is emerging.  Someone likes to hit in the beginning of the year.  Last year, Fukudome hit the ball well through June.  So far, so same.

Ryan Franklin – Another save.  I think he gets 20-25 saves this year as LaRussa occasionally works in other guys.

Sean Marshall – 5 IP, 3 ER and 4 Ks.  Pretty much exactly what I would hope for from Marshall.  He was in line for the Win when he left, but Aaron Heilman, obviously still upset about losing the 5th starter job to him, took care of that.

Kenji Johjima – Joe Geema to the DL.  Keep an eye out if the Mariners are going to call up Jeff Clement, though Rob Johnson looks like he might take the majority of the PT.  Johnson is actually more intriguing than Joe Geema. (<–not really a compliment)

Yunel Escobar – Out for a few days with a strained ab.  Chipper says the left side of the bench is really comfy.

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-5 and three more Ks.  Dallas McPherson says, “Muahahahahaha.”

Vladimir Guerrero – In my daily roundups, I usually don’t mention guys that are owned everywhere unless there’s some kind of value change.  So was it weird it was just two days ago that I decided to mention Vladdy for just randomly going 0-for-4?  Or prescient?  You make the call!  All I know is the other day I saw a guy that looked really old and broken down.  It was revealed he has a strained pectoral muscle.  Glass half full?  He’s not really as bad as he’s looked so far this year; he’s injured and will return healthy pounding the ball.  But I think the glass is half empty.  Even if he’s healthy, he’s old and getting older by the day.  Unlike Benjamin Button.

John Danks – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Mentioned in the preseason he’s one of the few AL starters I’m targeting.  I kinda wish I would’ve highlighted him more.  *SPOILER ALERT*  He’ll be in the Buy/Sell coming later today.  Stay tuned…

Barry Zito – 5 IP, 6 ER. At least one thing is constant.  The greatest trick Billy Beane ever pulled was convincing the world Zito was good.

Emmanuel Burriss – 3-for-5 with a steal.  If Webster gets hot, he can swipe 7 bags in a week.  Might be the Nuevofacio.

Chase Headley – 4-for-4, 3 RBIs.  I’d add him for this weekend in Philly.

Howie Kendrick – .205 on the year and his speed and power are weak too.  Awesome!  Was on the all-overrated team too.

Mark Teixeira – Received a cortisone shot for his wrist.  Maybe patty cake with Shelley Duncan wasn’t such a good idea.

Joe Saunders – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners.  Great mysteries of the world… The origins of Stonehenge?  Did CT and Shauvon have sex?  And how is no one hitting Saunders?  At some point, this ace in wolf’s clothes is going to rub its butt on your Domino’s pizza.

The only people that are heaped with more scorn than nerds at Adams College are fantasy pitchers who are drafted in the top 6 rounds only to severely disappoint.  It may not be fair to the pitchers but it definitely offers up some bargains come draft time for those that can see that they are champions and will keep on fighting ’til the end.  Aaron Harang and Erik Bedard are your Louis and Gilbert.  Granted Harang was facing the Pirates, but a 3 hit no walk shutout with 9 K’s has got to be a great sign for those that gambled on a comeback.  Erik Bedard – who has been great when healthy – tosses 8 1/3 shutout innings agains the A’s with 3 hits and a walk.  Assuming these two can stay healthy (no small challenge for Bedard or a pitcher on Dusty’s staff), their fantasy owners will be eating pie this year.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – To the DL with a sore right shoulder.  I warned people back in February not to make this guy your top starter, “As for Webb, I’m legitimately worried about him.  So much of his value is derived from good Win karma,” but obviously the Eight Ball didn’t even predict things would be this bad.  For those thinking it’s a good Buy opportunity because his owners are now discounting him.  Let’s drop some Liquid Paper on your brain and correct that.  Pitchers + arm, shoulder or elbow injuries = Don’t Want.

Kyle Lohse – 3-hit shutout.  Coming off a 15-6 / 3.78 ERA with a low K rate (only 119 out of 200), he seemed ripe for regression in 2009.  Go with Lohse when he’s on a roll and don’t be afraid to bench or cut bait after a bad start or two.

Milton Bradley – Left Sunday’s game with a leg injury.  In other news, ice is cold.

Tom Glavine – Left rehab start with sore shoulder.  I don’t think anyone was actually waiting on this guy, but, if you were, postdate your expectations.

Evan Longoria – 5th HR this week.  Orioles pitchers don’t hurt anyone’s numbers except Orioles pitchers, but that is still an impressive first week.  I liked Longoria at the end of the 2nd round and felt he wasn’t that far off from Wright.  Color me vindicated.

Dexter Fowler – Joining in on the mean violin, hit his 2nd HR this week.  If he can continue to pound his way into the lineup, we might be looking at the NL ROY.  As I said about my Cinnabon today, that’s some kind of delicious.

Tim Lincecum – It’s called a panic move.  What, Grey?  What is? Trading Lincecum for fifty cents on the dollar. You need to be patient.  Though getting hit by the Padres is not a good sign.  He’ll get his K’s, but hope you’re not banking on 18 Wins happening again.

Kevin Gregg – Making even his owners wish Piniella would go with Marmol so they can drop him.  Don’t.  Not yet.  When Piniella says no more, then you can drop him. Not until then.

Rafael Soriano – Recorded the save yesterday.  I have him in two leagues.  Mike Gonzalez is iffy at best and usually injured at worst.  Soriano’s not much better, but he’ll vulture some saves.

Alfonso Soriano – Another HR, bringing his tally to 4.  I’m marking Soriano down as my NL MVP in my head.  Injuries always seem to befall him, but if he runs a little less and stays healthy he can have a monster year.  As I projected in my top 20 overall post — 110/32/85/.275/15 are crazysexysolid numbers for him.

Huston Street – Loses the game for the Rockies.  The Rockies really need Street to be their closer so they can trade him for a worthwhile piece before the trading deadline to make up for trading Holliday for Nadir Bupkus.

Brandon Inge – Another HR.  As Rudy told you the other night, Inge can help while hot.  No reason not to drop some lesser catchers for him — Navarro, AJ, Skinny Molina…

Chase Headley – He sounds like a porn star, but may actually prove to be a fantasy star this year as well.  HRs in two straight games are a good sign.  His playing time is all but guaranteed.  We’ve seen this kind of thing before – Kouz in 2007 – so we’re still a bit skeptical.  Like any hitter with promise, grab him off FA and see how he does for a week or two.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 4 Hits, 7 Ks.  Another quality start from Tally.  When I pegged him a fantasy sleeper, this is what I expected.  For real for real.

Randy Wolf – Randy like the Wolf!  Randy like the Wolf!  7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Real tough to start him against Haren last night, but if you did you reaped some rewards.  If you continue to trot Wolf out against 2/3 of his NL opponents, you’ll reap more.

Trevor Cahill – Two solid starts for the 21 year old Athletic who hadn’t made a start past AA prior to this year.  His long-term future looks bright but 3 Ks and 8 BBs in 12 IP is a harbinger for a stormy short-term future.

Delmon Young – HR yesterday.  Just think, he didn’t hit his first home run last year until June 7th.  I know, not super reassuring, but it’s a positive.

Josh Johnson – Outdueled Johan Santana with a 1-run, 7K complete game.  We marked him as a prime comeback candidate after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery.  If he keeps pitching like this, people will stop confusing him with the Casey kid from Dawson’s Creek.

David Aardsma – Nabbed his 2nd save already.  Not bad for someone who isn’t even the closer.  He’s ruining the joke that you can’t spell Aardsma without Triple-A.  That said, Morrow should have a fairly long leash so don’t expect too many more from Aardsma (an aardvark that’s short of breath?)

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)