Fantasy Baseball Advice

I started writing this week and kept getting distracted by the notion of a “tease” starting pitcher.  These are guys we all see available every week at the top of our waiver wire.  For some reason they hop on and off rosters, faster than the Easter Bunny.  They all for some reason have an attractive quality, whether it be a great matchup, a previous decent start or just a general boyish quality that we find irresistible.  We see the numbers they produce and sometimes numbers tell a different story than what really is going on for fantasy purposes.  In the end, it comes down to picking a starting pitcher in a must win week is the same place that $30 steak goes to digest.  So with the eve of playoffs upon us, here are the lower end 2 start options for the week.  Good luck and happy fantasying. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change, especially with Irene running havoc.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/31
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan
Chris Capuano vs. Fla – Hensley
Ted Lilly vs. SD – LeBlanc
James McDonald @ Hou – Happ
Josh Collmenter vs. Col – Rogers

9/1
Fausto Carmona vs. Oak – Gonzalez
Luis Perez @ Bal – Matusz

9/2
Bruce Chen vs. Cle – Masterson
Guillermo Moscoso vs. Sea – pineda
Jeff Karstens @CHC – Dempster

Charlie Morton (@Hou vs. Sosa, @CHC vs. Wells) Was pitching well up until Thursday.  3 ER in previous 29 innings.  Jersey guys always get a little extra juice from me, hey, I’m a homer. Go root for your own state.

Brett Cecil (@Bal vs. Reyes, @NYY vs. Sabathia) We all root for the glasses, whether we admit it or not we do.  Is a typical tease fantasy pitcher, shows the goods, does bad gets dropped, rinse and repeat for next scheduled start.

Wade Davis (@Tor vs. Romero, Bal vs. Simon) ERA right at 3 in last 4 starts, and showing better K rate. Pitches better at the Trop and I gamble more at the Trop, so the Baltimore start looks like a winner to me. This lesson in transitive theory is brought to you by Gamblers Anonymous.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, Phi vs. Hamels) If consistency were pants, he would be wearing cargo jorts. Recently moved into the top 30 all-time in K’s, congrats.  We come for the K’s and cry when we get everything else.

Livan Hernandez (@Atl vs. Lowe, NYM vs. Pelfrey) I don’t know if anyone watches his starts, but he is fun to watch. Throws slower than his jersey number.  Is the Latino Houdini of pitchers, better known  to those in the know as El Mago.

Doug Fister (KC vs. Francis, CHW vs. Buehrle) Since trade he is 3-1, with an ERA in the mid 3’s.  Toss that record out the window, make sure the window is open first, genius.  It’s not next year but a full year in Detriot with that offense and he is a 15 game winner.

Brandon McCarthy (@Cle vs. Tomlin, Sea vs. Vargas) Loved his work in Mannequin.  Is in the growing trend this week of tease pitchers, cusp rosterable guys that matchup-wise are more attractive.

Homer Bailey (Phi vs. Worley, STL vs. Garcia) The Iliad, a funny catchphrase and a civil rights activist.  See Homers have actually done something good in history.  What you see is what you get, he isn’t the former top pitching spec we all want him to be.  Sorry, I hear hearts breaking all over the Midwest.

Derek Lowe (Was vs. Livan, LA vs. Kuroda) Team is 20 games over .500 and he has 23% of the losses.  Yeah, that sounds awesome from a fantasy perspective.  So grab your sneakers and chase those wins.

Blake Beavan (Ana vs. Pineiro, @Oak vs. Cahill) On here for 1 reason, he has beat both these teams previously.  Tends to get beat up by good hitting teams, which for the less in the know means his secondary pitches aren’t inspiring.  Doesn’t K enough for full fantasy usefulness.

This will be my first week playing fantasy baseball without my hero, Hightower from Police Academy. God speed, big man. So the deadline came and went. Pretty unexciting stuff from a fantasy prospective. The fake baseball trade deadline is approaching by week’s end, time to analyze that roster of yours and ask “Can I make a run and if so where and with what guys?” It’s also important to think of next year for keeper leagues, take a chance on a guy who someone may value less for next year than you may. Gambles in fantasy are what pay the bills, folks. So good luck on getting your roster ready for playoff battle. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/10
Erik Bedard @ Min – Blackburn
Mark Buehrle @ Bal – Hunter
Mike Leake vs. Col – Nicasio

8/11
Cory Luebke @ NYM – Niese
Joe Saunders vs. Hou – Myers
Jeff Niemann vs. KC – Duffy

8/12
Dillon Gee @ Ari – Kennedy
Chris Narveson vs. Pit – Maholm
Brandon McCarthy vs. Tex – Wilson

Jason Marquis (Hou vs. Lyles, NYM vs. Capuano) First impressions are everything, 7 ER against the team you’re trying to catch. I do like him slightly better in Arizona, weaker hitting division, better ROS schedule.

Brett Cecil (Oak vs. Harden , Ana vs. Haren) Since his return from Disgraceful List, 3-3, 3.38 ERA and 41 K’s in 8 starts. Shows glimpses of fantasy goodness, is a next year fave for me (I said that preseason this year also) even if it’s through rose-colored glasses.

Doug Fister (@Cle vs. Masterson, @Bal vs. Britton) Should be owned! I can sit here and throw numbers at you, but I don’t want to hold your hand. Holding hands is weird for strangers. Fister is the centerfold for Sabermetric Monthly for August.

Philip Humber (@Bal vs. Britton, KC vs. Francis) Ever wonder what it really feels like to hit the fantasy wall? Well, Phil is waiting to take your calls. May get you wins this week but at the expense of 5+ ERA.

Charlie Morton (@SF vs. Vogelsong, @Mil vs. Marcum) The Pirates’ ship is sinking.  Man the life rafts!  Is a WHIP disaster and, like his team, seems to be running on fumes. Is the Hydrox to Doc’s Oreo.

Esmil Rogers (@Cin vs. Willis, @Stl vs. Jackson) Needs to build some quality innings, but potential for a back end starter could be there. Any youngin’ needs to work on control so be leery of the WHIP abuse. Remember that love Nicasio got for like a day.  Yeah, they may be fantasy clones.

Chris Capuano (SD vs. LeBlanc, @Ari vs. Marquis) ERA is a little high for everyday use, but I like this guy. He has grit or moxy or groxy. Hey, Dr. Seuss made a living making up words. Though drugs were a lot stronger back then.

Homer Bailey (Col vs. Hammel, SD vs. Stauffer) Some people like him, others come to his defense in the comments. See start on 7/28/11. Any questions? If you could ever just be whelmed, Homer would take you there.

Mike Pelfrey (SD vs. Stauffer, @Ari vs. Hudson) You ever get in a groove while listening to Pandora? Then all of a sudden they sneak a Brian Adams song in there. Well Pelfrey to me is that song.  Skip and then listen to an ad from Pauly D.

Dontrelle Willis (Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) I wish fun was a fantasy category, D-Train would go first overall. Will never really be a fantasy asset, which makes me sad. Dispelling all rumors that I was the Gooch.

As Alex Rodriguez rehabs down in Miami, the heat (oofa!) is on his gambling habits.  “According to the baseball executive, MLB has yet to positively determine that Rodriguez took part in the (poker) games, which reportedly included actors Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, John Malkovich and that guy in that movie starring that other guy.”  Poker is a game played by men or women who will beat your ass, so you know A-Rod is only getting invited to these games because he’s probably the world’s worst poker player.  A-Rod’s favorite hand?  Jacks over Queens.  If A-Rod wants to avoid a suspension, he better take a long hard look in the mirror.  A-Rod, “I’m talking to the man in the mirror.  I’m asking him to make love to me.”  Man, A-Rod is so lame I almost feel bad making fun of him.  Then I think about his two trillion dollar contract and I wanna punch myself in the face.  Maybe this is how A-Rod hurt himself.  Favorite part, “This is no bluff.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Rolen – Out for 4-6 weeks.  Or as they call it in the Rolen household, “Just another day not at the park.”

Yonder Alonso – Taking grounders at 3rd.  “Hey, this is Dusty Baker’s voicemail.  Sorry I couldn’t get your call but I was making out the lineup card without Yonder Alonso in it.”

Dontrelle Willis – 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Some of you might remember this, but I had this hypothesis that Dontrelle was a herbathrowdite — you know a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body — and when he was in the AL he never felt comfortable because he couldn’t hit.  Yesterday, he hit a homer and has a 3.41 ERA so far.  It’s a theory worth noting, not a reason to pick him up.

Casey McGehee – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and 3 homers.  Did they throw out green top hats after he hit the 3rd?

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks.  After the game, Wolf announced he was Team Jacob.  So predictable.

Corey Hart – 2-for-5 with the slam and legs.  With a little ingenuity and three point font, I squeezed Hart into my top 100 for the 2nd half.  Well, whoop dee doo, Grey!  Okay, Random Italicized Voice, but he is hitting over .400 in the last week with two homers and a steal.  Well, la di da!

Edwin Jackson – 7 IP, 8 ER, 15 baserunners, 6 Ks as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post then cat o’ nine tailed them to death with earned runs.  When one player hits a homer off you, pitch around him next time.  When one player hits two homers off you, hit him in the square of the back next time.  If he jumps a jack, then you make him wail.  Listen to Brian Seltzer, or whatever his name is, he has all the answers!

Charlie Furbush – 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Impressive first start against Billy Beane’s A’s.  If the A’s were any more impotent against Furbush, you’d think Billy Bean was the GM.

Gio Gonzalez – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Now has given up 16 runs in the last 16 1/3 innings.  Um, not so good.  He gets the Jays next time out.  That’s not so good either.  Two negatives aren’t making a positive here either.

Josh Wilingham – 1-for-4 with his 16th homer as he hits over .320 in the last week with 3 homers.  It’s against my better judgment to recommend an A’s hitter, but The Other White Meat has been hitting.

Ryan Vogelsong – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After a couple of just mediocre starts, guess he got his swagger back.  Truth.

Delmon Young – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  Wednesday is Delmon’s thump day.  I’d say he hasn’t done much this year, but he really hasn’t done much in his career.  He had an okay 2nd half last year, so if you’re juggling 5th outfielders like a drunk clown, give him a shot.

J.D. Martinez – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 1st homer.  He’s playing every day now that the Astros are Pence-less.  In Double-A, he had 13 homers and a .338 average in 88 games.  He looks like a lock to hit for a good average (~.290) in the majors, but the homers may top out at 20.  He has little to no speed.  Stephen also gave him some love recently.  He wrote it while popping a bubble.

Billy Butler – 1-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 13th homer.  You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him, which is the motto for his line of manssieres.

Gavin Floyd – 2 1/3 IP, 10 ER.  Say uncle, Floyd.

Jason Marquis – **Writing this before the game**  5 IP, 4 ER.  **Back after the game** Okay, turned out I was a little too optimistic with the Marquis de Shat as he went 4 IP, 7 ER.

Eric Young Jr. – 1-for-4 with his 2nd steal in as many games.  I feel like a beat dog when I look at EY Jr. because of how many times I’ve been excited by him only to watch him disappoint.  He’s now started every day for a week and has 4 steals.  He’s capable of 15 steals in a month.  For what it’s Wuertz, I grabbed him in every league where he was available.  May you stay, Eric Young.

Dexter Fowler – 1-for-3, 3 runs and a steal.  You know the drill.  It’s SAGNOF, all day and night.

Chien-Ming Wang – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  If you feel the need to grab Wang after this start, you might have some Freudian thing going on.

Jayson Werth – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Has now hit in every game in the last week with two homers and two steals.  When the guaranteed contract is in the bag and nothing is on the line, Werth is your man!

Jason Heyward – Sat again for Jose Constanza.  Who put Jason Heyward in the doghouse?  Woof, woof, woof, woof, woof.

Jason Kipnis – Sticking with the Jason theme, Kipnis now has 4 straight games with a homer.  If you want, leave your password in the comments.  I’ll take it from there.

Matt Stairs – In honor of his retirement, we go to a Razzball greatest hit from two years ago, “Bud Black said Stairs isn’t ready to return from the DL because “he hasn’t been able to run with intensity.”  Stairs can drink a beer with intensity.  He can grow a mustache with intensity.  He can probably take a crap with intensity.  If you’re waiting for Stairs to run with intensity, my guess is it will be a long wait.”  Fairly well, Stairs.

Charlie Morton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks, but got the no decision when the Pirates couldn’t score a run.  But what about Ryan Ludwick?!

Mike Napoli – 1-for-4 with his 17th homer and is now batting .293.  Seriously, take a moment and think about how you couldn’t keep Napoli on your team and then look again at a .293 average with 17 homers.  Who’s the schmohawk in this scenario?  It’s not me.  It’s definitely not Mike Napoli.  Go put your face up to the mirror like A-Rod.

Alex Avila – 2-for-3 with a homer.  He was mentioned somewhere… Oh, yeah!  Here.  Yesterday.  (Yeah, I busted out the one word douchey sentences.)  Now use your finger and scroll down.

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  I had a total brain fart when I saw his record was 4-12 with a 3.29 ERA and I saw he was pitching for the Tigers.  I was like, “How on earth is his record so bad– Oh, that’s right, he was on the M’s.”  Fister, you make me punchy.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In his postgame interview, he said he couldn’t do it without Desmond Jennings.  Or he should’ve said that.  Tomato, tomahto.

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 18th homer yesterday to go along with his .220 average.  Napoli’s hitting .293.

Brad Lidge – Got the save because Madson’s wife is having a baby.  I bet it’s Paul Giamatti’s baby.

SAT Question:  Albert Pujols is to a fractured forearm as Justin Morneau is to playing every day in 2011 and you can’t take him out of your lineup.  Only thing worse for Cardinal fans is if Don Denkinger announced Pujols’s fractured forearm while wearing a Wilson Betemit jersey.  We never get Pujols in any leagues.  I mean, never.  This year, we thought we’d go against common practice and pay for him in one league.  It’ll take away some money we have for the rest of our team, but at least we’ll have Pujols.  *standing in the pouring rain, shaking fist at the sky*  Come get some, Fantasy Overlord!  So, unfortunately, the slap on Albert’s forearm was harder than the law gave to Tony La Russa when he DUI’d and Pujols will be out for at least 6 weeks. (They’re saying 4-6 weeks, but that’s optimistic.)  Looks like Jon Jay, the Federalist, will get more time.  Well, why didn’t you say that?!  That makes everything better!  *sticks head in oven*  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Freese – Returns next week.  If he’s on waivers, now would be as good a time as any to pick him up.  Or now.  Or now.  Or…Well, you get the picture.

Adrian Gonzalez – Francona said A-Gone might play some outfield during interleague play.  A-Gon’s got the outfield range of a Johnny Damon throw.  The Red Sox are going to mitigate his poor range by giving him a really big glove.

Andrew Miller – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners (3 walks), 6 Ks.  I should do lines in Vegas– Whoa, Charlie Sheen!  This is a family show! Random Italicized Voice, I mean I should make betting lines for oddsmakers.  I totally would’ve called this Miller line.  He’s such a 5 to 6 inning pitcher with 3 to 4 earned runs and a lousy WHIP.  (BTW, Sawx vs. Padres in Fenway?  This is like S.D. Jones vs. Andre the Giant.)

Tim Hudson – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I was gonna write a post about interleague in regards to this, but I didn’t get a chance so here’s the short version.  When a team doesn’t see a pitcher often, the pitcher has the advantage.  An AL team loses a DH, advantage for the NL pitcher (and not just because Hudson pitchslapped Romero).  They still have the play the games, and, as Morton showed last night, a terrible performance is terrible no matter the circumstances.  Continued in the next blurb…

J.A. Happ – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER in Arlington.  Then you have an interleague matchup of a mediocre pitcher vs. a tough lineup in a hitters’ park and Happ happens.

Jose Bautista – 0-for-4, I know Bautista’s going to hit three bombs tonight because I’m about to write this, but in June — 1 homer and a .259 average.  Last year, only 4 homers in June and a .179 average.  Bautista did go back to the Smackdown in July.

Travis Wood – 7 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  After the first inning where he gave up 4 runs, he settled down and stopped letting Volquez call his pitches.

Ivan Nova – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He seems to have a great start then a terrible one.  Maybe Nova is a star that suddenly becomes much brighter than normal and then gradually returns to its original brightness.

Mariano Rivera – 1 IP, 0 ER.  Nothing to say here, but I was at my chiropractor yesterday — I’m so LA! (and I sit in front of my computer too much) — but I read a great article about cutters in Sports Illustrated from one or two weeks ago.  I’d seek it out.  Was about how so many pitchers are adopting the cutter.  Hey, look, it’s like we’re in a book club!

Charlie Morton – 2 IP, 6 ER.  He was walking between the raindrops for too long without getting wet.  It was a nice ride, but now I’d bench or lose him in most leagues.

Jake Arrieta – 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks and a 4.50 ERA on the year.  Yet, he has 9 wins.  In other news, wins are stupid.

Juan Nicasio – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  The roofie as defined by the Razzball Glossary:  A rookie pitcher who fails to deliver on their tremendous K potential and, instead, abuses your trust and violates your ERA and WHIP.  Used in a sentence, “Doctor, last night Nicasio roofied me and now I’m peeing blood out of my rear.”

Carlos Santana – 3-for-4 with his 10th home run and third steal.  It’s a slam and legs, and it’s easy to digest.  The average is blehtastic at .237, but his OBP is fine and his BABIP shows he’s been a bit unlucky.  He’s still just a catcher, but his end of the year numbers are gonna look decent.

Jason Giambi – 1-for-4 with his 7th home run.  Giambi’s a decent interleague flyer if you’re in dire need for power in a deep league.  Short term play though.  BTW, I just totally spazzed myself out thinking about how Giambi’s having a better year than Morneau.  I will now walk into traffic wearing a burlap sack.

Orlando Hudson – 3-for-4 with his first homer.  I didn’t see it, but I’m guessing Pesky-fueled.  O, you, dog.

Chase Headley – 4-for-5, and hitting near .500 in the last week.  Wanna know why?  Because he wants to hug you.  No.  That’s not why.  Cause he’s away from Petco.  This year — .336 in away games.  .235 at home.  In 2010, same shizz, different year.

Starlin Castro – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd home run and 9th steal.  I’m a bit embarrassed to say this because I have Castro on a bunch of teams, but I thought he had more homers.  2 homers?  Really?   Really, Seth Myers?

Clayton Kershaw – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks.  I have a bit of a schoolgirl crush on him.  That is all.  (Unless he wants more.  I’m totally open for that.)

James Loney – 3-for-4 and 6 for his last 11.  Hitting over .290 for two straight months and– I’m sorry, I can’t get excited about him.

Ryan Braun – Missed yesterday’s game with a viral infection.  Oy, someone make the Hebrew Hammer some matzoh ball soup.

Jeff Niemann – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I’m going to sound like an obstinate broken record here.  But I don’t buy into Neimann at all.  At all.  At–

Evan Longoria – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs with his 6th home run and is hitting .237.  So Pujols, Hanley, Wright, Longoria and Crawford are lured into The Octagon, who wants in first?

Leo Nunez – So spooked by strange noises in his hotel in Florida that he spent the weekend at his friend’s home.  Some meddling kids figured out it was Robb Nen draped in a bed sheet.

Hanley Ramirez – New (<–ironic! (if I am using the word ironic correctly) manager, Jack McKeon, benched Hanley in his first game.  The 80-year-old manager said, “In my day, bats were made out of particle board.  They weighed 5 times a player’s body weight and you had to put them together with wood screws.”  He continued, “Look, there’s no miracle elixir that can get us back into first…but McKendrick’s Revitalization Potion #7 never hurts!”

Welcome to week 12, please wipe your feet before you enter. For most leagues this week is the halfway point. Peripheral stats are darn near impossible to make up this late in the season, but the impossible is what fuels fantasy fires. Not the ones started by Drew Barrymore though. So if you’re in a keeper league now may be the perfect time to use strategy and build for tomorrow. Grab guys that may be expensive now but even more expensive next year. The best thing about fantasy is that there will usually be a next year, and what’s wrong with winning next year. Nothing! Sorry if I yelled that too loud. So follow me as we explore this weeks low end pitching options for fantasy baseball, enjoy. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/22
Nick Blackburn @Sf – Vogelsong
Joel Pineiro @ Fla – Hand
John Lanna vs. Sea – Bedard

6/23
Chris Capuano vs. Oak – Godfrey
Felipe Paulino vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Marquis vs. Sea – Pineda

6/24
Carlos Carrasco @SF – Sanchez
Matt Harrison @NYM – Pelfrey
Tim Stauffer vs. Atl – Lowe

Carl Pavano (@SF vs. Bumgarner, @Mil vs. Narveson) Typical Snidely Whiplash. Throws a couple decent games in a row to gain our trust and then goes all Waco on your weekly peripherals. K’s are yuck and away ERA is double yuck.

Ivan Nova (@Cin vs. Cueto, Col vs. Nicasio) Still plays for the yanks, so he has that going for him. Road Era is a run lower. K/BB rate is muy mal. Revert back to first sentence for positive news.

Livan Hernandez (Sea vs. Fister, @CHW vs. Floyd) Comes off a complete game gem against the Cards. Home ERA is under a deuce. Recent quote from Jamie Moyer, “Man, he throws hard.”

Jeff Niemann (@Mil vs. Narveson, @Hou vs. Happ) Hopefully grandma’s ouchie cream and a popsicle made him feel better. Still a bottom of the rotation guy with minimal K potential.

Josh Outman (@NYM vs. Gee, @Phi vs. ?) Thanks to Cahill for falling on the grenade last week and moving up a day. Josh makes consecutive fantasy posts for the first time in….sorry had to look it up…forever.

Doug Fister (@Was vs. Hernandez, Fla vs. Sanchez) Pitching decent and falls into the Paul Maholm category of pitchers with mid 3 ERA’s with losing records. ERA half run better at home.

Charlie Morton (Bal vs. Arrieta, Bos vs. Beckett) Every time he pitches twice in a week I give him a new nickname, this week it’s “Pre Med.” Looks like Halladay without the degree. Still struggles against LH.

Derek Holland (Hou vs. Happ, NYM vs. Gee) xFIP of a run less than his ERA. Seems to be on a two good, one bad stretch. Home ERA isn’t very friendly. K-rate makes it a little more tolerable.

Chris Narveson (TB vs. Niemann, Min vs. Pavano) Discussed him before and he is just frustrating. Cruises through 4 innings than walks a couple and boom goes the dynamite. xFIP lower by a run. Decent K’s, good lineup, just pukes up too many leads.

Joe Saunders (@KC vs. Hochevar, @Det vs. Penny) Zona scores some runs, better ERA on the road and decent match-ups. Sounds like a delicious recipe for a buy low weekly add to me.