Fantasy Baseball Advice

In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss some closer trading strategy.  As I mentioned the other day, I traded Street and some other closer for Haren.  This might’ve put me at a disadvantage for saves.  Now you’re probably thinking what the eff?  This doode doesn’t even know who he traded or if it put his team at a disadvantage for saves.  Well, that’s the whole point.  Saves are the easiest commodity to acquire on waivers.  Just last month, 10 closers lost their jobs, even if just temporarily.  10 out of 30 closers.  So, frankly, I don’t care if I’m trading Qualls, Bell or schmohawk closer behind door number 3.  Are some of these guys more reliable than others?  Sure, but that doesn’t mean Jenks couldn’t have a meltdown tomorrow.  They’re just closers.  As for not knowing if I’m at a disadvantage, it’s real early and plenty more saves will come into the league.  Not that many more Harens are coming into the league.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Jonathan Broxton (+4) (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (J.J. Putz)
5. Bobby Jenks (+3) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Brad Lidge (-2) (Ryan Madson)
7. Mariano Rivera (-2) (Jonathan Albaladejo, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte)
8. Heath Bell (+3) (Mike Adams)
9. Frank Francisco (+5) (C.J. Wilson)
10. Chad Qualls (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
11. Francisco Cordero (+4) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
12. Brian Fuentes (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
13. Kerry Wood (-5) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Kevin Gregg (-1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Brian Wilson (+4) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
16. Ryan Franklin (+9) (Chris Perez, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
17. Mike Gonzalez (Rafael Soriano)
18. Fernando Rodney (+11) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Brandon Lyon)
19. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Matt Capps (-5) (John Grabow)
21. Trevor Hoffman (+7) (Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
22. Huston Street (Manny Corpas)
23. Troy Percival (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Morrow (+3) (David Aardsma, Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero)
25. LaTroy Hawkins (-15) (Jose Valverde)
26. Scott Downs (B.J. Ryan, Jason Frasor)
27. Andrew Bailey (-9) (Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Santiago Casilla)
28. Juan Cruz (-11) (Joakim Soria, Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth)
29. George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson (-1)
30. Kip Wells/Joel Hanrahan (-9) (Julian Tavarez, Saul Rivera, Natalie from The Facts of Life)

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of U.S.S. Mariner.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2009?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005′s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008′s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009′s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.

Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up.  You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post.  See, you are familiar with my work.  Great, I love how you do whatever you do too.  Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now.  One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks.  You want anyone getting saves.  Yes, you do.  Trust me.  You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year.  You may be right.  But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year.  Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon.  You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler.  You also missed out on good closers.  Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart.  This is an opening for good ol’ Jed.  The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed.  Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be.  So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi.  Ortiz, that is.  Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago.  Yo, whaddup, double play pardner?  Not your knee, I assume.  And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong.  Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time.  Do the math!  Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:

Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future.  Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday.  During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage.  For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings.  If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs.  Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine?  Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs.  Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be?  You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15?  Who are you, Kelly Johnson?  That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.

Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months.  Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer.  Yes, he looks like a child molester.  It’s just matter of him getting healthy.  He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest.  If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft.  Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him.  No harm, no foul.

Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.

Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring.  He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs.  With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year.  That’s not me jumping ship.  I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.

Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far.  If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.

Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early.  He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers.  Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base.  If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.

Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday.  If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.

Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen.  Stay on fire, Emmanuel.  Papadapolis will save you.