Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jonny Gomes was acquired by the Washington Nationals.  This is exciting for Gomes’s family and any National fans who like to make signs for the games but can’t write the letter H.  Gomes will platoon with Nix and, if anything, his value is hurt a bit by the home venue change.  The real story is the call up of Reds prospect, Yonder Alonso.  In 353 ABs in Triple-A this year, Alonso had 12 homers and 6 steals with a .297 average.  I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye.  Reds TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.”  His starting time may be iffy in Cincy, platooning in left field.  Did this stop me from grabbing him?  Well, to use one of the worst songs of all time, I’d rather hurt you with honesty than mislead you with a lie so I’ll just come out and tell you I grabbed Alonso in every league where I could.  My leagues are deep though, so in most mixed leagues you can wait to see his playing time.  In keepers and NL-Only leagues, you proceed without caution.  Or no caveat emptor, for our friends in Latin America.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jose Bautista – Left yesterday’s game after getting beaned in the melon.   He left on his own power and is being called day-to-day with no signs of a concussion.  Maybe the hit on the head will have him return as Jason Bourne.  That would be cool.  Then he bring down Aaron Hill for trying to kill my fantasy teams.

Aaron Hill – 2-for-4 with his 5th homer.  Aw, speaking of the devil, and I don’t mean devil in the idiomatic sense.  Sophisticated ignorance, write my curses in cursive.  How on earth (assuming Canada is on earth) does he only have 5 homers?  He had three months last year where he hit 5 or more homers.  Maybe his bats ain’t accustomed to going through customs.

Adam Lind – 1-for-4 with his 19th homer.  In June, he had back-to-back homer games then went four games without a homer then he hit a homer.  This month he had back-to-back homer games then went four games and guess what?  He hit a homer.  Damn, how does Jayson Stark make that trivial shizz interesting?  Oh, wait, he doesn’t.

Brandon Morrow – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  So inconsistent proves that Morrow isn’t guaranteed for anyone.

Yunesky Maya – Gave up 7 runs in his last Triple-A start.  The Nats wish it was May 5th when he rafted over from Cuba so they could’ve sinka de Maya.

Matt Holliday – Out with food poisoning.  Rasmus sprinkled some expired Colby cheese on his lunch.

David Freese – 2-for-3 with his 5th homer.  And no injury!

Zach Britton – With a 5.40 ERA in Double-A, he’ll get the call in a doubleheader vs. the Yanks.  I’m sure Zach is thrilled.  Come on up to face the Yankees!  I’m expecting a Not-So-Great Britton.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers to bring his season total to 16.  Potatoes to chips, I never thought I’d be so happy to own Hardy.  For those new to the site, the potatoes to chips phrase’s sole purpose is to befuddle you into thinking it means something.  Don’t be fooled!  But feel free to use it in everyday conversation.  Potatoes to chips, I already brought in the mail.  Potatoes to chips, I have to stay late at work so start dinner without me.  Potatoes to chips, I have herpes.  It works for every occasion!

Derrek Lee – 4-for-5, 5 RBIs with his 11th home run.  When we’re in July and he gets more than 12% of his RBIs in one game, it’s not a season to remember.  But — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — he’s been a 2nd half hitter in recent memory.

Vance Worley – 9 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  About two weeks ago when I told you to pick up Worley, someone commented that he (Worley, not the commenter) was due for a regression.  He has a 2.02 ERA — of course he’s going to regress!  Still, while he’s pitching like Sandy Koufax meets Don Drysdale — Dandy Koufdale, pick him up.

Jered Weaver – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks for his 14th win.  Through 161 innings(!), his ERA is now at 1.79 (!!) with a 0.95 WHIP (!!!).  He makes me want to grow a mullet and be ugly.

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  The bad news is he’s limping to the “You’re finished” line.  Good news is he’s lowering his draft position for next year.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 as Emily Boneface’s hitting streak has reached 24 games.  Pretty remarkable from a guy who I’m not even sure has ever hit in 24 games total throughout a season.

Logan Morrison – 1-for-4 with his 16th homer.  Morrison didn’t break on through like I thought he would so far this year.  His walk rate has plummeted pretty dramatically, which makes me think he might be pressing because of some bad luck with balls hit into play.  Or as Shakira might say, BABIPs don’t lie.

Josh Johnson – However, ball clubs do lie.  It’s now being reported that Johnson won’t pitch again in 2011.  I have a secret for you, he won’t pitch all of 2012 either.  Let’s call it an educated guess.

Brian McCann – The mysterious oblique injury laid dormant for a few weeks, letting hamstring pulls and concussions take center stage, but now it’s back.  McCann might be McCan’t for a few weeks as he was placed on the 15-day DL.

CC Sabathia – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners and he struck out 14 of 25 Mariners he faced.  In an effort to stop the losing streak, Eric Wedge shaved off his mustache.  That’s all you had going for you, man.  Everyone knows the entire cliche is “Don’t shoot the messenger and don’t ever shave your mustache.”  Through the years the “don’t ever shave your mustache” part was dropped because it’s IMPLIED!

David Ortiz – 4-for-5, 5 RBIs and Dustin Pedroia also went 4-for-5.  With the Yankees vs. the Mariners blowout and the Sawx playing the peasant Royals, Selig’s league parity is working almost as well as his toupee.

Billy Butler – 3-for-4 with his 2nd homer this week.  One for each of his luscious moobs.  Along with Derrek Lee, he was also in the 2nd half hitters to watch post.

Neftali Feliz – 1/3 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  Guess he’s using reverse psychology to convince the Rangers they don’t need Heath Bell.

Adam Dunn – 1-for-4 with a homer.  I didn’t see it so I’m gonna assume the box score had a typo.  Carry on.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks and 6 unearned runs.  I nearly had a heart attack from this ticker shock.

Joey Votto – 2-for-4 and his first homer in what feels like a year but is really only since July 8th.  Someone asked in our forums why no power for Votto and I’m really not sure.  His line drive percentage is way up and his homer per fly ball is down, so maybe he’s just making too good of contact, if such a thing exists.  It’s not like his other numbers are poor.  I think it’s the kind of thing that will correct itself.

John Axford – Tied Doug Jones’ Brewers record for consecutive saves (25).  Doug Jones still owns the record for mistaking the kielbasa mascot from the 7th inning stretch race for an actual sausage and biting its ankle.  A record seven times!

Tim Byrdak – Got the save yesterday because Parnell and Izzy were used the last two days.  Oh, and July 27th is the winning entry for “Pick the date Tim Byrdak makes it into a roundup.”

Tim Lincecum – Was scratched with a bad case of the flu.  Brian Wilson rubbed VapoRub on Lincecum’s hairless chest and said, “I’m a certified ninja and home nurse.  He’ll be feeling better quicker than a penguin screws a duck.  Giants do it with science.  Now watch me eat a lemon and a lime and piss Sprite!”

Excellers is now a word because you added it to your dictionaries.  The other day I went over some 2nd half hitters.  Today, it’s time for everyone’s favorite 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers.  Or maybe these won’t be your favorite pitchers.  These are decisions you have to make on your own.  I can walk you to the fantasy baseball water, I cannot drink it for you.  Similarly to hitters, players get in grooves or slumps.  So if a pitcher has been terrible for the last month, but showed flashes in the 2nd half of last year, he’s worth considering, but he’s not suddenly going to be great, i.e., recent history should be weighed, except in CC’s case unless you have a medical scale.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers for 2011:

CC Sabathia – 1.56 ERA in 2008′s 2nd half to lead the league for pitchers over 60 innings.  He was ranked 7th for 2nd half ERA in 2007 with a 2.76.  In 2009, Chubb rock’d a 2.74 ERA, the 9th best in the majors.  Though last year his ERA went up a smidge in the 2nd half to 3.29.  Though, Part II: The Return of Though, that was better than his 3.52 career ERA. Though, Part III: Though Lives, all those innings on his arm could catch up to him. Though, Part IV: Though Part Three Confused Me, the innings have shown no sign of catching up to him, why would they suddenly?  Though, Part V: Why Do They Keep Making Thoughs?

Roy Oswalt – Except for 2009, he’s had great 2nd halfs… Yet, I worry about his injury this year.  And that yet needs a crane to get out of bed.

Wandy Rodriguez – Since 2008, his post-All-Star break ERA is 3.80.  2nd half ERA is 2.86.  Though he wasn’t good at all going into the All-Star break.  Damn, those thoughs (stutterer!).

Clay Buchholz – Had a 2.20 ERA in the 2nd half last year.  Though (again!) with his injury, I’d proceed cautiously.  You, not him.

Bronson Arroyo – I’d prefer to listen to him cover Sarah McLachlan at the latest incarnation of Lilith Fair than own him in the 1st half of a season, but every year Guitar Arroyo is better in the 2nd half.  Over the last three years, his ERA is almost 2 runs lower (5.08 to 3.09).

Scott Baker – Man (or two lady readers), is everyone that is usually good in the 2nd half coming off of injury currently injured?  It’s kinda rhetorical, so, ya know, no need to answer.  I wouldn’t rush out and trade for Baker, but he is only supposed to miss one more start.

Carlos Zambrano – I hate when I do these posts and it doesn’t work out the way I envision it.  Big Z was great last year (1.58 ERA), but he’s all over the place from minute-to-minute, let alone year-to-year.  He wasn’t good in his last start and, if he showed at Wrigley wearing a Gatorade cooler as a barrel dress and Michael Barrett’s head on the end of a tiki torch, it would surprise no one.

Apparently, A-Rod’s got a bucket list (get creative with letter replacements for b) that he wrote when he was 15 years old.  Madonna, check.  Cameron Diaz, check.  Christie Brinkley, check.  “I wonder if Phoebe Cates will come to my pool party.”  To spice things up, he puts on Betamax copies of Skinemax movies.  “Oh, Emmanuelle…” Who needs Derek Jeter’s rejects when you can have Mickey Rourke’s?  So with the media circus surrounding Jeter’s 3000 hit, Rudy and I both couldn’t make it out to The House They Built Next To The House Ruth Built, but we were able to send Keith Morrison of Dateline.  “Hello, I’m Keith Morrison of Dateline.  It’s in this small, bucolic town, the South Bronx, that Alex Rodriguez calls home.  Everything seemed right in the world this weekend.  The famed Yankee captain, Derek Jeter, did what no other Yankee had done before, but quietly in the corner of the clubhouse something was brewing below the surface — A-Rod’s knee and his love of cougars.”  A-Rod is going to miss the next 6 weeks or so with knee surgery.  If you’re wondering if your team will be all right without his power, look at his stats for the last month.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

CC Sabathia – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks while A-Rod made eyes at his mom.

Paul Maholm – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Now has a season ERA of 2.96.  Has helped me remove some of the odor from dropping Anibal the first week of the season.

Pedro Alvarez – It’s a cruel twist of fate when you draft someone, they suck, get injured and then sadly you leave them on your DL for two months hoping they’ll turn their season around when they return only to be demoted.  Unfortunately, the cruelness won’t end there because I’ll probably draft him again next year.  Alvarez, please use an alternate route than Ian Stewart.

Jake Peavy – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  There’s guys like Luebke on your waivers and you continue to roll out Peavy.  That there is why you’re losing.  Sorry, it’s Tough Love Time with Grey Albright.  Our next guest will be the guy who still has Pedro Alvarez on his team.  Wait, that’s me.  No, tables, don’t turn!

Adam Dunn – Hit a homer on Friday and that’s it all weekend.  They should put him in the Home Run Derby so we can see our first strikeout.

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Didn’t say I didn’t like him when I said to sell him on Friday.  Don’t put words in mouth, you know I don’t like that.  Now eat your vegetables.

Carlos Gonzalez – Headed for an MRI on Monday.  Wait, that’s today?  Unless you’re in New Zealand — weirdos!  If it’s bad news about the CarGo MRI, I give you permission to cry if A) You own him.  B) You’re a Rockies fan.  C) There’s no C.

Jhoulys Chacin – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Here’s what I said after his last start, “Hopefully he’ll start to turn things around again.  Just putting that out into the universe.  It’s the secret.”  It works!  Now if I could win the lottery…  Wink-wink, Universe.  Are you listening?  BTW, speaking of having more money than you know what to do with, I was watching Real Sports the other day and they had a segment on Saadi Gaddafi.  He threw his money around to get on a professional soccer team and, even though he was worse than a high school player, no one said anything because he could have them killed.  Then he hired the shamed Olympic gold medalist, Ben Johnson, to teach him how to run.  I won’t give away the whole thing, but seek it out.  It’s brilliant.

Mark Trumbo – 4 homers in the last five games to bring his season tally to 17.  I actually find it more surprising that the Sciosciapath hasn’t decided to randomly bench him for Jeff Mathis or Maicer Izturis.

Eric Thames -3-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 4th home run.  Nice of Bautista to let him carry the home run conch shell for one day.

Brett Cecil – 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I will now pick him up in every league and potentially bench him for his next start, depending on the matchup.  It’s all about the dangling modifier.  That’s what she said!

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  The Wandwagon has come off the tracks three of the last four starts.  He’s around a 3.50 ERA pitcher and his season ERA sits at 3.52.  So I guess he’ll now shave off that .02, and that’s my two cents.

Emilio Bonifacio – 3-for-3 with 3 steals.  Now has 5 steals in his last 3 games.  Emily Boneface isn’t just an awkwardly translated name, it’s a steals machine.  BTW, I wonder if Josh’s brother, Gosh Johnson, ever did any scenes with Emily Boneface.

Chase Utley – 2-for-4 with 2 steals.  Now has 8 steals and 4 homers.  Didn’t he have knee problems?  So now he’s a speedster with little power?  I’m more confused by what he’s doing this season than Charlie Manuel watching Jeopardy.

Raul Ibanez – 2-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 2nd homer this weekend.  Giraffe’s gestation period is shorter than it took Ibanez to get hot, but he’s there now.  Actually, I looked at Ibanez in one league last week and wish I grabbed him, but I got William Shatner finger and I….just…couldn’t….pick…him…up.

Dontrelle Willis – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners (4 BBs), 4 Ks.  You’re only looking at him because he was good like five years ago.

Francisco Cordero – Who was the one who went into the bathroom and forget to flush?  *Cordero blushes.*  Dusty would be one of the slower managers to react to a faltering closer, but CoCo is doing everything in his power to make him flinch.  You can handcuff with Aroldis, who should be owned anyway.

Mark Reynolds – Should be fine after being hit on the hand by a Weiland pitch.  Supposedly, Weiland was mad Reynolds compared him to Eddie Vedder.

Vladimir Guerrero – Will also be fine after being hit by a pitch.  In the bullpen, Kevin Gregg hulk-smashed a gagged-and-bound Johnny Pesky.

Nate Schierholtz – 4-for-4 on Sunday, hitting near .400 over the last week.  With a last name that is German for pantyhose, you’d think he’d generate more excitement for me.  He just doesn’t give huge power or speed.

Javy Guerra – Got two saves this weekend.  Looks like he’s officially won the job of Dodgers closer, which is like beating conjoined twins in a race to put on pants.

Ted Lilly – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He’s been like the NL Liriano and Scherzer, so it pains me to point out Lilly was solid after the break last year (3.17 ERA).

Andre Ethier – 2 homers.  Now on pace for 17 homers.  No wonder Kemp pulls all the ladies.

David Wright – Supposed to start a rehab assignment on Wednesday.  Mets said he should be back sometime in July.  They failed to mention what year.

Replacing Phil Coke in the Tigers rotation is Charlie Furbush.  It’s about time that Leyland gave Furbush a mustache ride.  Furbush also sounds like a character description for someone in a Woodstock documentary.  Or a character name in a 70′s porn flick made by Leyland called, “The Marlboro Mandingo.”  That was co-starring Virginia Slim.  Furbush looked great in the minors, posting a solid K-rate while keeping his walks in line.  He is not a 2-something ERA pitcher as he’s shown so far this year.  He’s leaving 93% of men on base, that won’t continue.  He can give you around a 7 K-rate with a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA.  I’d grab Furbush in H2H mixed leagues for matchups and in AL-Only leagues.  In roto mixed leagues, you can grab him in certain circumstances, but caveat emptor for our Latin readers.  (BTW, To all the Googlers who searched for Furbush and weren’t looking for a fantasy baseball site — howdy!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Cole Hamels – Hit on his hand by a comebacker, but x-rays came back negative.  Speaking of negatives that are positive, yesterday frequent commenter DHill Dragons pointed out the Phillies starting staff in June had a 1.96 ERA.  A Philly quartet hasn’t been this hot since Boys II Men.

Mark Ellis – The Rockies acquired him.  You know what the Rockies really needed?  Another utility infieder.  Can’t they save Melvin Mora from retirement while they’re at it?  Ellis is 34 and 4 years removed from a solid season.  I wouldn’t grab him in anything but NL-Only leagues, and there oekávání, which is me putting expectations in Czech.

Jemile Weeks – 2-for-5, hitting .309 with 6 steals in 21 games since his call-up.  With Ellis taking his extraordinarily ordinary talents to Colorado, Weeks is the everyday 2nd baseman for the A’s, and has been leading off.  At this point, he’s worth a flyer in all mixed leagues if you’re struggling with your middle infidel.

Jon Lester – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Matthew Berry wrote a post yesterday about how he’d trade Lester for Beachy.  “I go big or I go home!”  That’s Berry.  I like Beachy.  March Grey told you to draft Beachy on all your teams, but, uh, has Berry been institutionalized?  His posts are too long for a 100 monkeys with a 100 typewriters to put them together, aren’t they?  “Mordecai the Monkey, type more fantasy baseball and less Shakespearean sonnets!  I’ve got deadlines!”  That’s Berry again.

Kevin Youkilis – X-rays came back negative on his ankle, even though he seems more like a cankle person.  For now he’s day-to-day.  Or Day II Day, if you’re into R&B.

Neil Walker – Sat out with back soreness.  Hurdle said, “I’m trying to be proactive with it.”  Does he have acne too?

Carlos Lee – 1-for-2 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  If someone grew bored of him in your league, I’d take a chance that he’s heating up.  If someone didn’t grow bored of him, I worry about the competitiveness of your league.

Carlos Zambrano – Left in the 2nd inning with back soreness.  Damnbacko!

CC Sabathia – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 13 Ks.  That tied his career high in Ks, getting the one man who can get on a seesaw with him, Prince Fielder, three times.

Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners.  Two weeks ago, I pointed out he should be much better.  Since then, 20 2/3 IP and 3 earned runs, lowering his overall ERA by more than one full run.

Andy Dirks – 2-for-3 with his 6th homer in 34 games and stole his 3rd bag for the always coveted slam & legs.  I should’ve mentioned him yesterday when he hit a home run in his 2nd straight game, but everyone homered on Wednesday for the Tigers.  Now Dirks has three straight games with dongs (great, now more disappointed Googlers).  I don’t trust Leyland to sit Mags for Dirks indefinitely, so playing time appears to be an issue.

Brian Matusz – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER and optioned to the minors.  Or maybe that’s the minorsz.

Jason Kubel – Had a setback during his rehab.  Just think of this as a wake-up call that if you’re waiting for Kubel, you have bigger fish to fry.

Aramis Ramirez – 1-for-5 with his 10th home run and his 8th in June.  For s’s and g’s, let’s look at what I said on May 30th, “(Aramis) tends to get scolding hot for extended stretches, so if someone dropped him in your league, I’d grab him.”  Prescient isn’t just a word you can’t pronounce!

Geovany Soto – Hit his 8th home run yesterday.  Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I wrote it while jumping Double Dutch.

Pablo Sandoval – He needed thirteen innings but Kung Fu Panda got a slam & legs.  Guess it was more like a sous-vide slam & legs.

Lance Berkman – With his 19th and 20th home runs yesterday.  Fine, I pulled the plug on him a little too early with my sell at the beginning of May.  He did hit .262 in May and .210 in June, but the power doesn’t seem like it’s drying up.  Though I still wouldn’t go out and trade for him.

Jon Jay – 3-for-5 and a homer.  Has now hit in 6 of the last seven games with 2 homers.  It’s something.  Or it’something, if you’re in a rush.

Brett Cecil – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Man, that is a spot-on impersonation of Brett Cecil from April.  What a gooftard!

Jeff Kartsens – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He reminds me of a National League version of Jason Vargas.  It’s neither a compliment or an insult.

Justin Morneau – Underwent neck surgery and will be out until the end of August.  I will Morneau-more for this schmohawk.

Jake Peavy – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Used to be when he was healthy he’d at least pitch well.  He’s at a 4.47 ERA and you’re holding onto him for his name value.  What, him being on your team is gonna get you a reservation at The French Laundry?  Look elsewhere.

Gordon Beckham – 3-for-3 with his 7th home run.  He hit .354 last July and had a much better 2nd half of the season.  Okay, anyone could’ve had a better 2nd half than his 1st half, but still…

Adam Dunn – Ozzie batted him 3rd yesterday.  That’s like the Melrose Place All-Stars hitting Marcia Cross, sans wig, third.  BTW, Rudy and I had a fifteen minute conversation on IM yesterday about a Melrose Place All-Star lineup (25 episode minimum).  Bisset’s leading off — you always want her to get on base.  Courtney Thorne-Smith is hitting 2nd.  Solid, reliable and can get the runner over.  Locklear’s third, ’nuff said.  Alyssa Milano’s hitting cleanup — always gets you to third, sometimes home.  Brooke Langton is fifth as an unsung hero that could fall into a slump very easily.  Daphne Zuniga’s sixth because she had some better years elsewhere (Spaceballs).  Jamie Luner hitting seventh and catching…um…moving on.  In the eight hole, Kristin Davis — annoying, pesky hitter.  Finally, Kelly Rutherford can turn over the lineup.  Laura Leighton did not make the lineup because she’s freakin’ crazy and ruined all team chemistry and keyed my car.

I finished the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for most hitters.  I’ll go back to the Utility guys at some point, but I wanted to move on to the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball while we were both relatively young.  And, yes, relatively is relative.  See what I did there?!  Yeah, I’m not sure myself.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 8th to 12th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the 3rd tier listed here, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Lee.  I call this tier, “The best, Jerry.  The best!”  As I put Miggy first in the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball, I kinda wanted to put F-Her number one here, but, as long as Halladay is in the NL facing pitchers, I can’t be that contrarian.  I am worried about the insane amount of innings he put on his arm last year, but that’s probably just me being paranoid.  Who said that?!  2011 Projections:  19-7/2.75/1.06/205

2. Felix Hernandez – I love F-Her.  If I didn’t think it would have my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston revoked, I’d project F-Her for a 2.25 ERA and tell you to draft him in the first round.  There was plenty of discussion about his historically insane low support last year.  I won’t rehash it, other than saying that I won’t rehash it, which kinda does rehash it.  He could easily win 20+ games this year.  Run support is fickle.  Double negatives be damned, don’t not draft F-Her because you’re worried about wins.  Don’t not draft him because you need a 3rd baseman and you don’t want to start Mark Teahen at 3rd base while your team languishes in last place.  2011 Projections:  16-12/2.80/1.10/220

3. Adam Wainwright – UPDATE:  I went over Wainwright’s injury.  Don’t draft him. The problem I have with Wainwright is… Nothing!  El oh el!!!  Some dopey people should be outlawed from ever writing that acronym.  Seriously, there’s no way they are actually laughing out loud as much as they write it.  If they were, they’d be in a mental asylum.  Wanna go into an el oh el wasteland?  Check out your high school friends on Facebook.  Especially the girls that used to be attractive.  I guarantee they are laughing out loud right now.  What are you laughing at?!  That your baby said poo-poo?!  Okay, changing the subject back to Wainwright before I have an aneurysm.  Wainwright’s fastball actually gained speed last year, K-rate went up a notch and he’s right in the middle of his prime.  No reason why he can’t repeat everything from last year except wins, which he can repeat just don’t count on it.  2011 Projections:  Nothing

4. Cliff Lee – I already went over my Cliff Lee fantasy when he signed with the Phils.  2011 Projections:  16-6/2.95/1.05/190

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Lincecum and Sabathia.  I call this tier, “Top starters that I’m wary of.”  Lincecum’s resemblance to kd lang shouldn’t factor into your decision on whether or not to draft him, his falling K-rate should.  Last year the percentage of pitches a batter hit outside the strike zone was 56% compared to 48.8% the year before.  He also lost a mile on his fastball, threw his slider a lot more and his curveball a lot less.  All these things separate?  Whatever.  Together?  Something stinks and it’s not his bong.  If all of these things revert, it’s all good.  If this is a start of a trend, we might be seeing a different pitcher in Lincecum than what we’re accustomed to seeing.  Before you scoff, you scoffer, think about how terrific Johan was not that long ago.  You drafting him this year?  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/225

6. CC Sabathia – For three years, CC’s walk rate has gone up.  For three years, his K-rate has gone down.  For three years, his WHIP has gone up.  For three years, his wins have gone up which has helped mask the disturbing trends orbiting him.  He will be 31 years old in July and I really think he should be fine for another year, but, for where you have to draft him, it’s not worth the warning signs he’s coming bundled with.  2011 Projections:  18-10/3.40/1.20/190

7. Jon Lester – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gallardo.  I call this tier, “I’m going to have one of these guys on my team.”  Usually around the 5th through the 8th rounds of a draft, I grab one SP.  It’s nice to have one guy that you can send out there with confidence when you’re upside Morrow, Marcum etc. etc. etc. picks crap the bed during any given start.  This tier could also be called, “These guys could all win the Cy Young but they come at a better price in the draft than the names above.”  It’s no surprise the first guy in the tier of starters I like is a guy with a K-rate that is over 9.  I love strikeout pitchers, as everyone and their cousin’s monkey knows.  Cousin’s monkey, “I read Matthew Berry.”  Simply, if a guy can strikeout out a hitter with runners in scoring position, he has a better chance of getting out of an inning than a guy who needs someone to hit the ball to a fielder.  Lester should get all the run support he needs, should keep his ERA in the low 3′s and strikeout 200+ hitters.  Yes, please and thank you.  2011 Projections:  17-9/3.30/1.18/220

8. Clayton Kershaw – I see Verlander, Weaver and Josh Johnson on a lot of perts’ rankings for this spot.  I don’t dislike those guys, but a K-rate over 9 on an ace in the NL West, pitching his home games in a pitchers’ park is too good for me to pass up.  Oh, and he cut his walk rate from 2009 to 2010 by more than a full walk per nine.  If he takes one step forward and gets run support, he’s winning the Cy Young.  2011 Projections:  14-8/3.00/1.15/220

9. Francisco Liriano – You could kinda guess my favorite guys by just going through the top K-rates for last year.  It’s not thrilling to me that we have a few AL pitchers in here.  I do prefer NL pitchers when push comes to shove.  But a pitchers’ park like Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome helps and a guy with an xFIP of 3.06 last year doesn’t hurt.  2011 Projections:  15-7/3.15/1.18/220

10. Yovani Gallardo – I don’t think anything is as shortsighted in fantasy baseball as when people look at last year, underrate a guy and don’t think about what they can do in the upcoming season.  We are drafting for 2011 now not 2010, right?  Gallardo cut his walk rate by almost one per nine, K’d almost 10 per 9 and had an xFIP below 3.50.  If you’re doing a throwback to 2010 league, don’t draft YoGa this high, his ERA was 3.84.  If you’re doing like me and drafting for 2011, get him.  2011 Projections:  16-9/3.30/1.24/220

11. Jered Weaver – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ubaldo.  I call this tier, “I would draft one of these guys, but I think others will take them first.”  I think we just saw a career year from Weaver.  I don’t think he approaches quite that K-rate, walk rate and ERA again this year, which made me almost want to put him in the next tier of pitchers that I don’t want, but even if he only loses one strikeout per nine and gains back some of his walks, I still think he’s going to be a top starter.  I do think he probably will be drafted before I get him because of my ranking.  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.40/1.15/195

12. Josh Johnson – Here’s another guy that will probably end up on someone else’s team in 2011.  It’s not that I don’t like porn star Gosh Johnson’s brother as much as the next guy, but, well, I don’t.  All his injuries annoy me for where you have to draft him.  2011 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.10/160 in 150 IP

13. Justin Verlander – Yet another guy I don’t terribly dislike, but he’s really more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a great K-rate who is drafted like he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher with an incredible K-rate.  Also, his Aprils and first innings drive me batty.  If he started his season in May and had Valverde pitch the first, Verlander would be a top 5 starter.  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.18/210

14. Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo’s more than a hair off the pitcher he was last year.  (Pun point!)  His 1st half last year was one for the storybooks, if you’re reading bedtime stories to Bill James’ kids.  His 2nd half ERA of 3.80 wasn’t necessarily bad, but it wasn’t his 2.20 ERA from the 1st half.  Unfortunately, he’s closer to the pitcher we saw in the 2nd half.  I’m not saying he’ll be quite that bad, just closer to it.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.20/195

15. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “If I failed to get a pitcher in the Lester tier, I absolutely need one from this tier.” If you grabbed a pitcher from the Lester tier, feel free to skip this tier.  If you draft two pitchers from these tiers, there’s a chance you’re hurting your hitting.  That’s, of course, assuming one of these guys doesn’t fall far enough in the draft where it makes sense to double dip.   As for Hamels, I’ve liked him for four (stutterer!) straight years now.  As long as he avoids bad luck, he’ll be a solid 3 and a half ERA pitcher with Ks.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.40/1.18/190

16. Roy Oswalt – What’s this?  The entire Phillies pitching staff in the top 20?  Yeah, pretty much.  If you’re thinking about avoiding one of them because you’re concerned that all of them can’t win 20 games, you’re being silly.  They can all win 15 games.  You’ll take that and like it.  2011 Projections:  15-8/3.35/1.16/175

17. Zack Greinke – I already went over my Greinke fantasy when he was traded to the Brewers.  Nothing’s changed since then, except for that hair growing out of your mole.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.18/200

18. David Price – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “You guys had fun last year, I’d let someone else enjoy them this year.”  Each one of these pitchers has positives.  Price’s K-rate went up last year, Latos pitches in Petco and Buchholz should get run support, but their negatives have me turning away.  As with the Weaver tier, these guys probably won’t fall far enough for me to draft one.  As for Price, he was lucky last year; his xFIP was 3.99.  Also, he derived a lot of value from wins last year and, as previously mentioned three gazillion times, don’t count on wins.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/185

19. Mat Latos – I’ll lay this out for you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it, Latos threw too many innings last year.  2011 Projections:  9-7/3.50/1.10/160

20. Clay Buchholz – His K-rate is terrible, he pitches in a tough park in a tough division and his number one category is wins, which are fickle.  Or fichhkle.  2011 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.25/140