Fantasy Baseball Advice

Achilles (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25) held on to the lead with 109 points while Navseal 7 in the tough RCL 9 rocketed up to 2nd with 106. AdamH (Sleeve of Wizard – RCL 43) is 3rd at 104, followed by Pig Charmer (Grunge Ball – RCL 16), Simply fred (The Fredsies – ECFBL), and Bill Hodgeman (Team Hodgeman – Toads n Wet Rocks) with 102 points. Check out the Master Standings to see where you rank.

We have tweaked the Competitive Index formula in an attempt to balance the problem of abandoned teams, which will become more prevalent as the season progresses. The bottom 2 numbers in each statistical category are now dropped in the index calculation. Of course, there is no perfect way to compare 48 leagues, but we feel this will give us the best results for a fair and fun competition. RCL 9 continues to set the pace with a strong LCI of 105. Schmohawk in Training is right behind at 104.

With the first month of the season completed, I checked back to the drafts to see who had the best results. No team drafting first overall finished April in first place. The only other draft slot where this occurred was #12. 8 teams drafting 9th sat in first place after 1 month. While only 1 team that drafted Miguel Cabrera was leading their league, 16 teams that took Matt Kemp sat atop the standings. Of the 6 teams that drafted a pitcher in round 1, Team Hill (Go Big or Go Home) had the best April result, sitting in 5th place after taking Roy Halladay with the 11th pick.

There were 28 trades this week, bringing the total for the year to 79. Albert Pujols was traded 3 times, but his owners weren’t letting him go cheap. He was dealt for Joey Votto in Beef SAGNOF!, Prince Fielder in RCL 16, and Dan Uggla and Alex Rodriguez in RCL 9. In a move that should pay big dividends, The Fugs (Epic Beardmen Division) acquired Yovani Gallardo for Henry Rodriguez. In the search for saves, Trevor Cahill was traded for Francisco Cordero; Brandon McCarthy for Jonathan Broxton; Dan Uggla for Jonathan Papelbon; Ian Kennedy for Fernando Rodney; Cameron Maybin for Jim Johnson; Bryce Harper for Addison Reed; and Ted Lilly for Sean Marshall. In RCL 29, Gio Gonzalez was dealt for Chris Perez and Santiago Casilla. Also traded this week were Miguel Cabrera, Robonson Cano, Stephen Strasburg, Ian Kinsler, and Giancarlo Stanton. You can find all the trades listed in the Fantasy Baseball Forums. Look for the RCL under “Everything Else.”

Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) continues to lead the Expert League by 9.5 points, but there is a tight battle behind him as only 7.5 points separate 2nd and 8th. Rudy and Grey are in this group, in 3rd and 4th respectively. Both have much better pitching than hitting numbers. Grey is last in average (.250) and has just 18 hitting points, compared to 53.5 pitching points. For Rudy, pitching dominates 51.5 – 21.5.

Weekly Leaders

Chuck Norris (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training) had the top hitting team, finishing at .289 with 59 runs, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, and 9 steals. While Nelson Cruz was hitting .115, the likes of Jason Kipnis and Pedro Alvarez helped carry the load. Starlin Castro and Carlos Gonzalez also had great weeks. Oh my Crawford (RCL 29) led in pitching with 8 wins and 7 saves, along with fine ratios of 2.22 and 0.94. Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehrle, and CC Sabathia paced the staff.

Average: .345 (All I Do is Nguyen    - RCL 25)
Runs: 60 (DJ Roomba – Fausto or Roberto?)
HR: 20 (Fastballs At Ridgemont High – Schmohawk in Training)
RBI: 64 (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training)
SB: 16 (Team Little – The Dread Pirate Returns)
Ks: 86 (BG Nitros – RCL 40)
Wins: 10 (seward bellman – RCL 16)
Saves: 9 (Team Juiced – RCL 4, # Thanzig – Myrtle’s Acres, Good Wood – RCL 40)
ERA: 0.81 (The Oh No No’s – RCL 41)
WHIP: 0.69 (Kenny Effin’ Powers AllStars – RCL 44)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – April 30 – May 6
Navseal 7 (RCL 9)
90/303 (.297) 59R/17 HR/60 RBI/7 SB	71 IP 69K/4 W/2.41/0.90/3 S
Navseal 7 jumped from 80.5 to 101 points in RCL 9 this week, stretching their lead to 29 points. Chipper Jones (.429/7 Runs/2 HR/9 RBI) and Carlos Gonzalez (.391/6 Runs/3 HR/9 RBI/1 SB) were the offensive leaders, while Adam Dunn contributed 4 home runs and hit .318. Felix Hernandez picked up a win and 18 strikeouts, with an ERA of 0.56 and 0.75 WHIP. David Price won his lone start and struck out 8. He allowed 1 run and 4 baserunners in 8 innings. Jonathan Papelbon added a couple of saves.

In the doubleheader, Nate Schierholtz went 6-for-10 with a homer, 2 runs, 3 RBIs, steal and back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-etc. starts from Bochy, go ahead with your big head self!  “This is the year Schierholtz breaks out!  And fill up my Merlot!”  That’s every Giants fan for the last three years.  Then within a few weeks, he’s usually hurt.  If Schierholtz is indeed German for pantyhose, he sure gets rips in them quickly.  Maybe he should bathe in clear nail polish.  (See, ladies, Grey doesn’t forget about you.)  Schierholtz has power, he just needs to stay healthy.  For now, I’d pick him up in all leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Lincecum – Good news:  5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Bad news: 4 hits, 5 walks, 108 pitches.  Reminds me of my stat lines when playing backyard Wiffle Ball.  Maybe Timmy needs to throw to a Pitchback instead of a Posey.

Mike Gonzalez – Boras said Gonzalez is expected to sign with a club in the next ten days.  Boras better get a deal fast before the terrible closer bubble bursts.

Lorenzo Cain – Expected to come off the DL on Friday.  Make room in your fantasy cupboard for Cain…Sugar!

Josh Donaldson – After starting the year on a sub-.100 anti-tear, the A’s brushed him aside like the ABC makeup lady used to do to his grandfather’s hair.  He will be sorely missed by opposing pitchers, Fantasy Razzball managers, and frustrated owners in 2-catcher leagues who hoped he could outperform the Barajii of the league.

Adrian Beltre – Should return soon as the MRI showed his leg was normal.  Right above the foot and below the hip.

Francisco Liriano – Twins will skip his next start.  Guess that’s easier and more legal than getting John McDonald to drop a knee on his head.

Josh Willingham – Out until Friday on maternity leave.  A lesson in the birds and the bees brought to you by Grey Albright:  Nine months ago there was a Drillingham with a throbbing lardon, asking to porker and now there’s a baby back.

Derek Holland – 6 IP, 7 ER, 13 baserunners, 1 K.  An embarrassment to pitchers and mustaches everywhere.

Josh Hamilton – 1-for-4 with his 8th homer as everyone who didn’t draft Hamilton continues to have their balloon Burrst.

Hunter Pence – Missed yesterday with a sore shoulder.  Chase Utley scoffed and raised him a sore everything.

Michael Bowden – The key piece in the Byrd trade is headed to the bullpen as predicted here first after reading it elsewhere.  He was a top pitching prospect once, but had a pedestrian K-rate as a starter in AAA so they turned him into a closer where he showed some signs of dominance (10+ K/9).  Nothing to see right now, but, if he has some early success and Marmol is traded (as I think he will be), Bowden could be saving games by the end of the year.

Cody Ross – 2 HRs yesterday and another one on Saturday (his last game).  Hot schmotato!

Daniel Bard – Shut the door yesterday in the 8th inning, but Bobby Valentine said that there’s no “great temptation” to have Bard stay in the bullpen.  In related news, Valentine is going for psychological testing.

Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 1.88.  I told you to draft him in the preseason, I drafted him in the preseason and then I dropped him.  Why do you make me rue?  I don’t wish to rue.  I’m fine with no ruing.  I’m stirring butter and flour in my soul!

Alex Rios – 3-for-5, hitting .360 on the season and hitting about .500 over the last week.  Cust kayin’.

Dontrelle Willis – The O’s confirmed that they signed Willis.  This was hilarious to me.  I imagine the O’s front office said, “Dah!  Yes, we signed Willis.  Stop mocking us!”

Chris Capuano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Is it the Year of the Cap?  Not probably, no.  But he could have end of the rotation appeal in mixed leagues and be one of those guys that’s cheap in NL-Only leagues that can really help you.

Michael Pineda – Headed for an MRI on Tuesday.  Here’s the Cliff Notes of a book I wrote (besides this one).  The name of this other book, “Signs of Trouble for Your Fantasy Starter.”  Chapter One:  If your starter is shut down and almost a month later they need an MRI, it’s not good.

CC Sabathia – 8 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he has an ERA of 5.27. Without looking at our Player Rater, I’m guessing his FIP is much lower.

Derek Jeter – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, batting .411.  So is he an Early Bird Special or a (Fill-in blank for term of older player who has a renaissance year.  Regarding that term that I asked for with Beltran last week.  I liked Ponce De Leon-g Balls, Hologram Tupac and Dead Cat Bounce, but Rudy nixed them.)?

Dillon Gee – 6 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  He alternated good start/bad start last year and he’s continuing this trend.  It’s pretty uncanny.  It’s like his job is to rope in and frustrate streamers and he takes his job very seriously.

Jason Bay – Left yesterday’s game with bruised ribs, which is nowhere near as delicious as braised ribs.

Hideki Matsui – Rumored to be signing a minor league deal with the Rays.  The Rays hope he still has a little left in the tank if they need a lefty DH.  Matsui just wants a job and heard good things about their potato chips.

Brandon Morrow – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Can we get Scooby on the Case of Morrow’s Missing Ks?  He only had 2 starts all last year of 3 Ks or less and he’s already had 3 starts this year like that and his other start was a 4 K effort.  His velocity didn’t look bad last night, but I’m starting to get concerned.  A guy who walks as many as he does (though he didn’t yesterday), isn’t very cute without Ks.

Krispie Young – Won’t return when his DL stint is up in 15 days.  With a ligament tear in his shoulder?  Really?  Here I thought a ligament tear was a good thing.  Just when you think you got the world figured out.  Wow.  File that in the surpriseapedia.

Wade Miley – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Phillies (Just think, Phils fans, in another 25 years your team will be good again, not like the Red Sox who have to wait 80 years.), and Bauer’s call-up just took two steps back with this Miley effort.  The key word with Miley is serviceable.  That makes for good real world pitching and only matchups appeal in fantasy.

Justin Upton – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs as he hit his first homer.  Formally document it:  In the nick of time, Justin.

Eric Hosmer – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games and 4th on the year.  He’s still hitting .203, but I bet he’s about to go on a tear and be hitting near .260 by this time next week.  Get it, Hosmer, get it!

Tony Campana – 1-for-1 with 2 steals.  He stole 2nd base so fast that he actually overran it, ran all the way around the globe, causing time to rewind, and allowing him to steal 2nd again.

Jason Motte – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  What a follower!  Ooh, all the cool closers are blowing games so he figured he would too.

Bill Hall – Signing a deal with the Orioles to replace Josh Bell on the Triple-A roster.  Bell to Hall?  This is a big score for the equipment manager.

Well, that took care of the hitters.  They’re done.  That cake is done.  Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do.  Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first.  You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay?  Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty.  Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st.  We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Sounds daunting to you?!  Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook.  I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here until Verlander.  I call this tier, “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?”  Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw.  For shame, shame balls.  I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay.  Shame ball me once?  Shame balls on you.  Shame ball me twice?  Shame balls on you.  To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis.  Inconceivable!  Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers?  Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda.  Are you angry or proud?  Proud, that’s how awesome he is.  2012 Projections:  17-7/2.55/1.05/230

3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9).  Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks.  You feel me?  If you do, could you stop?  It’s making me uncomfortable.  2012 Projections:  18-8/2.50/1.05/215

4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!”  Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz?  Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great!  You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox.  You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb.  With that said, Verlander did have a great year.  DAH!!!  2012 Projections:  18-7/2.75/1.08/240

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “The aces that once were.”  I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him.  He would have to fall probably much later than he will.  He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace.  Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year.  None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.75/1.18/230

6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown?  F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games.  Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies.  F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game.  (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.)  2012 Projections:  15-12/2.80/1.14/220

7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year.  In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm.  Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings.  He can throw a lot of innings.  He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too.  2012 Projections:  20-7/3.10/1.20/210

8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high.  That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall.  (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.)  I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him.  Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA.  Belch called you up and burped.  Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye.  He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  *drool*  Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals.  He’ll be a’ight.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/220

9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lester.  I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.”  Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate?  Doesn’t matter.  He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood.  Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63.  You’ll take it and like it.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.95/1.10/200

10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/200

11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year.  Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th.  Correction done.  I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19.  Was it really that bad of a year?  Rhetorical!  If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that.  (Side note:  Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers.  Here’s what I said about that list.)  2012 Projections:  15-9/3.15/1.20/210

12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th.  Let’s see what we know from last year:  Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17.  I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better?  None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya.  I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two.  You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes?  You’re having a discrepancy.  Take it, Highlights.  It’s yours.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/200

13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62.  I’ve seen better.  His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better.  Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September).  In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats.  He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down.  Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza).  In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased.  Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky.  Am I making excuses for Lester?  Oh, fo’ sho.  But he strikes out a lot of people.  Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that.  2012 Projections:  16-9/3.25/1.22/200

14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson.  I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.”  With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word.  I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins).  He is terrifically solid.  No more, no less.  It’s not a knock.  It just is.  2012 Projections:  17-10/3.30/1.12/190

15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me.  It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out.  I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not.  I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me.  I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.35/1.12/200

16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy.  I wrote it while juggling fire.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.45/1.21/190

17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating.  This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.28/200

18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable.  If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were:  2.89, 3.14 and 2.88.  Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby.  Need more convincing?  He had more quality starts than Halladay last year.  Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.10/1.10/180

19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down.  There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road.  Bingo-bango!”  I added the bingo-bango.  To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot.  They’re, how do I say, terrible.  Yes, that’s how I say it.  Home or away.  He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins.  I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either.  Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.50/1.20/200

20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg.  I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him.  If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me.  I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160.  For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat:  I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September.  2012 Projections:  12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings

All the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  This is NOT for 2012 (caps for those still wearing their Dolphin Tale 3-D glasses).  This is a recap.  Will these affect next year’s rankings?  Sure.  But not entirely.  To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater.  It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie?  No, just an unbiased comparison.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Justin Verlander – Verlander was terrific yadda³.  I’d prefer to take his blurb to talk about how easily pitchers can go wrong, or fantasy teams, in general.  I had Kershaw, Hamels and Yovani as guys I wanted in the preseason.  They all finished in this top 20.  Unfortunately, I also had Liriano in a group of pitchers I wanted, and he was the one I ended up with in a bunch of leagues.  Pitching can be found later in drafts so this didn’t kill all my leagues, but it just shows you how easily a coin flip (Liriano or Kershaw) can turn a team’s fortunes.  Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.18/210, Final Numbers:  24-5/2.40/0.92/250

2. Clayton Kershaw – You know what’s nice about Clayton Kershaw?  Everything!  This article from 2010 always sticks in the back of my mind.  This is pretty unfair to point out.  We’ve all been wrong.  Shoot, I’m wrong more than I’m right.  I’m probably wrong just pointing this article out.  For those who don’t have ESPN Hindsighter, the piece was written almost two years ago.  (Yeah, I randomly remember shizz like this but forget where I parked my car.)  The author compares Kershaw to young pitchers over the last 30 years and how they get hurt or lose velocity.  He compares Kershaw to Kazmir and Ollie Perez.  Only there’s no mention that Kazmir and Perez had an entirely different flaw in their games.  They walked more than someone with a DUI in Los Angeles.  Also, he mentions Doc Gooden.  Only he doesn’t mention that Gooden had the world by the nuts until he decided to see if he could snort the foul lines.  What’s also omitted in that article is that Feller, Drysdale and Blyleven did pretty well at the ripe old age of 22.  Could Kershaw collapse because he has too many innings on his arm at a young age?  I suppose, but not because a few prodigies did and some other prodigies didn’t.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 14-8/3.00/1.15/220, Final Numbers: 21-5/2.28/0.98/248

3. Roy Halladay – The fact that Halladay ended up 3rd is more a testament to the two pitchers above him rather than an indictment on anything he did.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 19-7/2.75/1.06/205, Final Numbers:  19-6/2.35/1.04/220

4. Cliff Lee – This is more of an over-arching issue with my preseason projections and the end of the year numbers.  Pitchers were a lot better than I thought they’d be (or hitters were a lot worse).  Guys I really liked in the preseason such as Lee, I projected an ERA for them a hair under 3.00.  There were 16 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00.  And a bunch of them weren’t just a “hair” under 3.00.  It’s the Age of ERA-rius.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 16-6/2.95/1.05/190, Final Numbers:  17-8/2.40/1.03/238

5. Jered Weaver – On one of the last days of the season, I took my rusty scalpel to Jered Weaver for 2011.  I wrote it while remarking what a nice beaver you have.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers:  18-8/2.41/1.01/198

6. James Shields – This might be a bit shocking to some people, but Shields’s 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA wasn’t really that different than his 2.82 ERA this year.  He gave up a few less homers, was lucky with BABIP and left more men on base.  He’s been a mid-3 ERA pitcher more or less for the last two years.  Preseason Rank #58, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.95/1.30/170, Final Numbers:  16-12/2.82/1.04/225

7. Ian Kennedy – This is a bit of a continuation of what I said in the Verlander blurb about getting unlucky with my first starter.  In the preseason I said I wanted Kennedy, Bumgarner, Chacin, Cueto, Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Sanchez or de la Rosa as my fourth starter.  Lots of hits there, but I could’ve ended up with the misses.  I didn’t though.  So luck does tend to even out.  Or not.  Your choice.  Preseason Rank #40, 2011 Projections: 11-10/3.75/1.25/180, Final Numbers:  21-4/2.88/1.09/198

8. Cole Hamels – My pitching projections weren’t great, but the guys I told you to draft weren’t bad.  I’ve pegged Hamels as a guy to go after for four (stutterer!) years now.  Next year, it’ll be the fifth.  Really nothing ever wrong with Hamels assuming his luck isn’t terrible.  Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.40/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  14-9/2.79/0.99/194

9. Dan Haren – “You got your head so far up your ass your mustache is also your eyebrows!  There’s no such thing as the Haren pre- and post-All Star break splits!”  That’s you.  This year:  2.61 ERA pre-All Star break; 3.89 ERA post-All Star break.  Um, okay.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.18/215, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.17/1.02/192

10. CC Sabathia – For a few years now, CC has worried me with his innings.  Yeah, he’s a workhorse, but this is the 2nd year in a row where his post-All Star break numbers have been less than stellar and in 2011 it was even more pronounced.  I.e., it’s pronounced:  tired.  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 18-10/3.40/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  19-8/3.00/1.23/230

11. Josh Beckett – You can go ahead and read Shields’s blurb again, because it’s pretty much the same deal with Beckett.  Preseason Rank #29, 2011 Projections: 15-9/4.15/1.24/170, Final Numbers:  13-7/2.89/1.03/175

12. C.J. Wilson – A recurring theme in my stupid assitude is my inability to understand relievers turned starters.  Wilson didn’t feel the effects of 2010 on his arm, he actually got better.  I really have no clue.  Preseason Rank #49, 2011 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.28/165, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.94/1.19/206

13. Matt Cain – As I continue to be the best ‘pert I can be, I’ve realized I should ignore certain stats for Cain.  Yes, I’m smarter now because I’ve chosen to be more ignorant.  You’re welcome.  Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.50/1.12/180, Final Numbers:  12-11/2.88/1.08/179

14. Ricky Romero – In the preseason, when I told you to draft Romero, here’s what I said, “Let’s count the ways we love Ricky Romero, shall we?  7 ways!  Okay, maybe I should count them out loud.  1) Will only be 26 years old.  2) Will be entering his third big league season, a time when pitchers tend to hit their stride.  3) His K-rate was 7 and half and can get better. 4) He cut his walks last year.  5) Golden rings.  6) Pitches in the AL East… Hmm… That’s not a positive.  7)  There was really only 4 reasons that I stretched out to 7.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #59, 2011 Projections: 13-6/3.65/1.30/180, Final Numbers:  15-11/2.92/1.14/178

15. Tim Lincecum – I was pretty concerned about Lincecum’s falling K-rate coming off his 2010 season…Yet, came closer to his projections than I did for most.  As always, it’s better to be wrong-right than right-right.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/225, Final Numbers:  13-14/2.74/1.21/220

16. Doug Fister – Easily the only pitcher that came completely out of nowhere.  Sure, I ranked Shields way lower than he ended up, but I told y0u to draft Shields.  Not only did I not mention Fister, but I wouldn’t have told you to even pick him up until around July.  Fister’s season wasn’t quite as pretty as it seemed, but his K-rate was respectable and his walks were low.  Fister, what a pisser!  (Though not Fister in the pisser.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-13/2.83/1.06/146

17. David Price – I ranked Price 17th and he ended up 17th.  Boo-ya!  Unfortunately, I also said to not draft him.  Again, it’s about being wrong-right.  Price had a great 2010, but he actually had a better 2011.  It’s a truism, or it’s supposed to be a truism, that pitchers really hit their stride in their 3rd year in the bigs.  That’s what 2011 was for Price.  The great sign going forward is he looks like he can continue for years to come, barring injury.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/185, Final Numbers:  12-13/3.49/1.14/218

18. Tim Hudson – No fair, he stole Roy Oswalt’s end of the year stats.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.20/130, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.22/1.14/158

19. Yovani Gallardo – As anyone knows that was around in the preseason, I was caca-cuckoo for Gallardo.  I wanted him on every team.  I pretty much nailed his projections too.  Yet, I feel like he let me down a bit.  Funny thing with this is when I really like a guy, I want them to beat my projections, not match them.  That’s kinda how I am in every facet of my life too.  Maybe I am just like my mother.  She’s never satisfied.  Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.24/220, Final Numbers:   17-10/3.52/1.22/207

20. Felix Hernandez – F-Her can get lumped in with Shields and Beckett.  He had pretty much the same season this year as he had in 2010 when he won the Cy Young.  Only this year, he won an extra game, his K-rate was better, his luck was worse and he gave up two extra homers.  As his spooner cousin Helix Fernandez would say, “Most people just saw a downward spiral year.  Not wanting to see how his xFIP was similar from 2010 to 2011.  Or they just went DNA.  You know, Did Not Address.”  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 16-12/2.80/1.10/220, Final Numbers:  14-14/3.47/1.22/222

Turns out Leo Nunez isn’t exactly who he said he was.  He’s been playing under an assumed name.  His real name is Juan Carlos Oviedo, he’s a Latin 29 and he’s pen pals with Keyser Söze.   He enjoys snorkeling through Atlantis, talking to his giant rabbit Harvey and hunting Sasquatch.  With the Marlins’ discovery of Leo the Lyin’, he was put on the restricted list.  One time I was put on a restricted list at a nightclub because I had a few too many tequila shots, danced with someone’s girlfriend, who I shouldn’t have, and bam! restricted list.  Now I can only hang outside the club and get handed flyers promoting other clubs that I don’t want to go to.  Though I can sneak back in that club occasionally.  Just need to feather my hair a little more bouncy.  I wonder if the same holds true for Nunez.  Show up in a pencil-thin mustache like Spike, Snoopy’s very un-PC Mexican brother, and pitch the ninth.  Either way, I feel for you, Nunez.  We are sympatico!  While the Marlins and Nunez try to come to terms with who he is, Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica will get saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Casper Wells – Shut down for the year because of his sinuses.  Same thing used to sideline Felix Unger.

CC Sabathia – Won’t pitch again in the regular season. The newest Biggest Loser started this week too.  Hmm… Coincidence?

Stephen Strasburg – Will pitch the last regular season game.  It’s not a home game and it would be on four days rest, so I’m not sure I understand it.  Maybe the Nats just really like having Livan as their ace and don’t know how else to make that happen.

Brad Peacock – 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 2 Ks.  I’m starting to get pretty excited about this young pitcher.  His recent K-rate in the minors was a thing of beauty and walk rate wasn’t too shabby at all.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nats let him start the year in the minors, but should be up fairly quickly.  Am I weird for getting excited about the 2012 baseball season already?

Kevin Gregg – Got the save yesterday because Johnson pitched the last three days.  Vegas should take odds on whether or not Kevin Gregg will have a closer job next year.  At the right odds, I say he will.  I wouldn’t put anything past some teams.  I mean, how much is Barry Zito owed?  Any the hoo!  Gregg’s not the closer right now, Johnson is.

Adam Jones – 2-for-4 with the slam & legs.  He’s been pretty terrible recently, so I was about to write how he’s really taken a dive after the All-Star Break, but turns out that was confirmation bias.  He hasn’t been good in September, but his post-All-Star Break numbers aren’t bad.

Phil Humber – 6 IP, 7 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Ozzie tweeted that Humber was leaving too much of his puta over the plate.

Jason Kipnis – Hit his 7th homer of the year yesterday and he’s hitting .333 over the last week.  Kipnis is locked in, like kishka in derma.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs and his 25th homer.  Guess he wasn’t done for the year.  *dodging tomatoes*

Jeanmar Gomez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s been excellent since August 30th.  He was on yesterday’s borderline starter post, so, yeah, grab him for his last start of the year.

Jemile Weeks – 3-for-3 with a homer, and 5 for his last 7.  As I tell my girlfriends, you have to ignore the sample size.

Trevor Cahill – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K.  At 4.31 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 11 wins on the year.  He had a pretty unremarkable season as I thought he would so you would think I’d be happy.  I am.  Schadenfreude!

Blake Beavan – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Yesterday, we were updating the website again.  (I know, sigh.  If anyone’s having a hard time seeing this post, tell me in the comments, but I imagine you won’t see it to tell me.  Double sigh.)  Anyway, I bring this up because I was tied up and wasn’t able to watch the Beavan/Swarzak, M’s vs. Twins match-up.  Maybe I’ll catch it on ESPN Classic.

Justin Smoak – 3-for-4, 1 RBI.  He was supposed to be out for the year, but as we know, supposing makes a supp out of sing… Wait, what?

Dustin Ackley – 2-for-4 with his 6th steal.  Some rookies know how to finish and not hurt their fingers.  Brett Lawrie, “Doode, that hurts.”

Ben Revere – 2-for-4, hitting everything like it’s a pancake and he’s Mrs. Butterworth.  Hey, it’s September, I’ve used a lot of my better metaphors.  Revere will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, the last one of the year.  That’s sad.  I might need a hug.  Or I might need to bail October Grey out of jail so he can grab the reins.

Matt Kemp – 4-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and his 36th homer.  Started strong, finishing strong.  Can we say lurve?

Eric Thames – 2-for-6 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  I’d say he’s gonna be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but that would be a lie.  I’m no liar.  Maybe a fibber from time to time.  Thames could be a Buy though, if you need power.

Allen Craig – 2-for-4 with his 9th homer.  Now has 3 homers in the last 5 games.  As if that wasn’t enough, he looks like the little kid from that Brooklyn Bridge show from a while back.

Matt Moore – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Wow.  Wait, what?  Oh, wow.  In Yankee Stadium.  As in eleven eleven Ks?  Wow.   Sure, it was against the Yankees B lineup, but wow.  Since you’re gonna ask, I think he’ll start the year in the minors and be a June call-up.  Game changing in June of 2012?  After what I saw yesterday, yeah, I believe he can be.

Manny Ramirez – Said he will serve his suspension and play next year.  Manny has officially entered Charlie Sheen territory.  Next stop, Diane Sawyer interview, cryptic messages over Twitter and Ashton Kutcher playing in the Rays outfield.