Traditionally, the backstop has been a bitter bane of the fantasy owner’s existence. Owners either spent mega-dollars on one of the heavy hitters at the position or contented themselves to spend the season with a Kurt-Suzuki–sized hole in their lineups. The mayhem came to a crescendo a few years back when Joe Mauer’s ADP crept into the 1st round. However, over the last year or so the position has filled out nicely and depth seems to be the name of the game. Indeed, I’ll likely be waiting on catcher in most of my drafts this year. That is not to say that the position is filled with superstars. On the contrary, many of the players you will see me espousing (and drafting) have aspects of their game that are rather ugly, but no matter how long you wait in the draft, your odds of drafting someone that can help your team remain high. (Grey also goes over his top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball there.)
The blue chips at the position are all still near the top, but the position has seen a bit of a changing of the guard. New faces sit atop the position, with Carlos Santana (of Maria Maria fame) first in ADP, and Mike Napoli coming in a close second. I love Santana all things being equal, but I’m hesitating from him at that price tag. Same goes for Napoli, who was stunning in a full season of action finally free of Anaheim tyranny. If pinned up against the wall into drafting a top 5 catcher, I’d much rather the 3-4-5 class that consists of McCann, Mauer and Posey given their value. Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters round out the crop of catchers that go in the top 10 rounds of standard drafts.
But I digress — the purpose of this piece is to elucidate the depth at the catcher position this year. So let’s take a long look at the situation you would find yourself in if you had waited to draft a catcher until after round 10 of our theoretical standard league. Before we get into some nitty gritty, let’s play a bit a numbers game based on 2012 projections (courtesy of Bill James and Fangraphs):
Player 1- .231 54-24-73-1
Player 2- .274 60-17-73-1
Player 3- .252 51-19-67-0
Player 4- .281 66-21-76-1
Two of these players have ADPs in the top 10 rounds and two have ADPs in our late round bargain bin. You can probably guess that the higher averages belong to the higher tiered players. Player 1 = JP Arrencibia, Player 2 = Miguel Montero, Player 3 = Geovany Soto, Player 4 = Matt Wieters, but the other counting stats look pretty close to me. And since batting average is the highest variance statistic used in fantasy baseball, basing a strategy of drafting a top tiered catcher based on 20 points of average seems foolish. This trend is further recapitulated by a variety of late rounders with 15-20 HR power and/or other useful skills (Russel Martin, for example — how his ADP is in the 200s is beyond me).
But you may say, “Sure, those projections look similar, but what about upside? Matt Wieters has a lot more upside than Geovany Soto!” and that is obviously a fair point. However, true “breakouts” at catcher are rare, at least breakouts such that they can win you a league. I’d much rather use my 7th round pick on that upside outfielder who may go 30-30 than blow it on a catcher who may hit 30 HRs if the stars align just right, especially if I can get a nice floor of production later on.
For those of you that love deep sleepers or are just among the unlucky few of us forced to play in a 2 catcher league, there are numerous names at the end of your draft that could pay huge dividends as well. Devin Mesoraco, Wilin Rosario and Yasmani Grandal are names to keep an eye on, as is Jesus Montero (if he is eligible in your league). These guys are top prospects who are at various degrees of proximity to breaking into the big leagues. While it is unlikely that any of them make a huge impact in 2012 (especially early on), they still have sizeable upside to couple with one of the solid but unspectacular names above.
The purpose of this piece was not to espouse a certain name at the catcher position that was a must-have value. I hoped to put forth a methodology for approaching one of the games trickier positions. I am not saying that one should ignore the top tiers of catchers; on the contrary, situations may in fact arise where the value of one of those names becomes too great to pass up. However, catcher is also one of those positions that lends itself well to the “Oh crap, I don’t have a catcher — time to reach!” mistake picks. If you can land a top 5 catcher at a discount, mazel tov! Hopefully after reading this, you won’t panic after failing to land one of those names, and instead remain patient to pluck the useful value player late in your draft.
These top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball will be yawnstipating compared to the top 20 1st basemen or even top 20 shortstops, but you have to start somewhere, right? (That was rhetorical.) You can check out our other top 20 lists for 2009 fantasy baseball under 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. I usually don’t draft a top catcher, instead I hold off until the later rounds and grab one of the late rounders. That doesn’t mean I’m going to start the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Varitek? Oy vey.), cause some of youse like to gamble on a top catcher. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Chris Snyder. Listed along with these catchers are my 2009 projections for each player. Feel free to also look at our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball:
1. Brian McCann – This is the first tier of catchers. This tier goes from here to Doumit. I call this tier, “I won’t own one, but I hear they’re good.” This was the one top catcher I owned in 2008 and that was only because he seemed to be discounted compared to Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. So my fantasy team with McCann must’ve have been the top performing offensive team I had, right? Nopers. The top catcher, McCann, still only gave you 68/23/87/.301. If he did that at 3rd base, you’d call him Melvin Mora. Zoinks! 2009 Projections: 75/25/95/.295
2. Geovany Soto – I have a personal bias against Mauer, but I’ll get to him. (9 HRs and 1 steal in 2008!?! Are you effin’ kidding me?) Seems to me that the current climate (outside of Chicago) about Soto is he was great in 2008, but that’s about all we can expect from him. He’s going to be 26 on opening day. He can’t get better? Actually, he can. 2009 Projections: 70/26/100/.280
3. Joe Mauer – Somewhere someone once wrote, “9 HRs and 1 steal in 2008!?! Are you effin’ kidding me?” I forget where I read that, but it’s eloquent, profound and other razzy words for eloquent and profound. Why are people drafting this dooode so early? For a .330 average? Shoot, lay off the Mark Reynolds-trans fat and you don’t need the Joe Mauer tasting-like-dust protein shake. 2009 Projections: 95/12/80/.320/3
4. Victor Martinez - I’m not drafting Victor Martinez on any teams, unless… Once again, and in caps — UNLESS he falls really far in a draft. He’s only going to be thirty-years-old during the 2009 season; I don’t think he’s done just yet. 2009 Projections: 65/18/95/.300
5. Russell Martin – Martin is featured in our Razzball glossary for the term, “Teabagger,” but otherwise Razzball doesn’t have much love for The Backstop Who Plays Near Eagle Rock. I don’t want to have anything to do with a catcher who gives you value because of some schmohawkian steals. You’d be surprised at how fast a 13/18 catcher can become a 12/7 catcher. You really want to draft Placido Polanco in the fourth round as your catcher? 2009 Projections: 95/15/70/.285/10
6. Ryan Doumit – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Biggie Molina. I call this tier, “The first catchers I could draft in any league.” I originally had Iannetta at number six then put Doumit here, then Iannetta then Shoppach then… Well, you get the idea. The next three catchers are all very close. Doumit is injury-prone, but so what? If he hits 17 home runs in 110 games and you can plug in someone else the other 50 games, you’re actually better off than having a subpar catcher for 160 games. Doumit’s injury history is actually how he ended up in front of Iannetta and Shoppach. It’s a plus in my mind. 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.295/2
7. Chris Iannetta – Could easily finish 2009 in the top 3 of this top 20 list, which makes him so enticing. He would’ve been ranked a bit higher on this list if not for Yorvit Torrealba’s deal with the devil to lessen Iannetta’s fantasy value. 2009 Projections: 55/19/70/.265
8. Kelly Shoppach – The Indians have to play Martinez at 1st or DH, right? I think they do, but they might not. Here’s a scenario, V-Mart starts off slow and says he needs to be behind the plate to get going offensively. The Indians appease Martinez four times a week and Shoppach sits in 75% of the games. This may sound like death for Shoppach’s value, but I still think he could put up 15 home runs in that scenario. Remember, Shoppach was once a decent prospect. Hopefully, he gets even more at-bats. 2009 Projections: 50/18/60/.260
9. Mike Napoli – Bill James has Napoli hitting 31 home runs if he gets 449 at-bats. Well, that’s the catch, ain’t it? (Speaking of catch, has anyone ever seen Fishing with John? It’s one of the best TV shows ever. The episode where he goes ice fishing with Willem Dafoe is brilliant. But I digress.) Last year in 227 at-bats, Napoli’s numbers were 39/20/49/.273/7. With full-time catcher duties, he’s the number one catcher, right? No. His average isn’t going to be over .270 in 2009 and he’s not a full-time catcher. Also, if he were a full-time catcher in 2009, his average would really suffer. 2009 Projections: 55/23/65/.245/7
10. Bengie Molina – And onto the next tier of catchers. I like to call this tier, “Just punt and go with an upside pick like Salty, Teagarden or Flores.” 2009 Projections: 50/15/70/.275
11. Ramon Hernandez – Every time I convince myself Ramon Hernandez has one more big season left in him, my common sense steps in and talks about what a bloody moron I am. I’d consider grabbing Ramon Hernandez in some leagues, but the better move is grabbing a younger upside pick real late cough Clement cough 2009 Projections: 55/17/75/.260
12. Jorge Posada – Posada has the name attached to him that says 20 home runs and 85 runs. But he has a shoulder (barely) attached to him that says 12 home runs and a DL stint. Don’t get nostalgic. Posada’s not worth being drafted in ten team mixed leagues. If you’re drafting a catcher this far down the list, do yourself a favor, grab Salty or even Laird. 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.270
13. Pablo Sandoval - And another tier begins. Let’s call this tier, “Guys that I wouldn’t mind having on my team. After all, it is just a catcher. Take a flier.” You get an extra catcher, because Sandoval might not be eligible at catcher in your league. If he is, you’re in luck because there’s going to be a 2009 Fantasy Baseball sleeper post about Sandoval shortly. 2009 Projections: 60/14/65/.300
14. Chris Snyder – A poor man’s Napoli. 2009 Projections: 55/18/70/.245
15. Jeff Clement – Huge 2009 fantasy sleeper right here. I may even devote a whole post to this guy. Maybe a few posts. Okay, maybe just this half of a paragraph. Last year in Triple-A, he went 40/14/43/.335 in only 173 at-bats. 173 at-bats! Okay, so he was abysmal when he was called up to the majors, but so what? He’s only 25 and he has catcher eligibility. I need to say more? 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.250
16. Jarrod Saltamacchia – May not have the starting job in 2009, and he could still see 350 at-bats. He’ll probably be in a timeshare with Teagarden and he’ll steal at-bats from Blalock (or Blalock will pull a Kotchman and be out indefintely). Salty only feels like a guy who is a perennial bust. He’ll only be 24 for the majority of the 2009 season. 2009 Projections: 65/16/75/.265
17. Dioner Navarro – I think Navarro and Sandoval must workout together. They have the softball build without the upper body strength to tap the keg. 2009 Projections: 50/10/60/.285
18. Jesus Flores – If Snyder was a poor man’s Napoli, Flores is a poor man’s Snyder. What? Not impressed with that comparison? Okay, what if I called him a homeless man’s McCann? 2009 Projections: 50/14/65/.245
19. Yadier Molina – And here’s a new player tier made up of two schmohawks. This tier I call, “Guys who I would never have on my team.” Maybe I’m drunk on stupid, but I don’t buy the .300 average from Molina last year. Though he’s not quite the guy who hit .216 one year either. He is the guy that can’t break double figures in home runs. As The Count from Sesame Street would say, “Bleh!” 2009 Projections: 35/7/50/.270
20. A.J. Pierzynski - I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. If you’re drafting a catcher this late and you’re taking Pierzynski, you’re not trying hard enough. 2009 Projections: Yuck/Blah/I Feel Sick/.280
After the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but three stand out:
Matt Wieters -Well, la di da. If it isn’t the pre-preseason AL Rookie of the Year candidate, Matt Wieters, who’s now under the shadow of The Almighty Zaun. I already went over Wieters 2009 fantasy outlook. With the addition of Zaun, Wieters is only worth a look in deep AL-Only leagues and keepers. In one year leagues, don’t bother or wait until Spring Training to see if Zaun is being used instead of Wieters or simply as a mentor. If Zaun’s his mentor and Wieters is the starter, then Wieters moves back up this list. Just don’t reach too far for him. For every Geovany Soto, there’s six grande Salty-Mochachinos. 2009 Projections: 50/17/60/.290 or the Minors
Gerald Laird – He’s actually more valuable than Yadier Molina. That’s right; I said it. I placed him at the back end of the catcher tier though to highlight him and because, similarly to Teagarden, there’s more risk involved with Laird. Yes, he’s the cream of the crap. 2009 Projections: 60/13/65/.270
Taylor Teagarden – I already went over a 2009 Teagarden fantasy outlook. Before you write off Teagarden for being behind Salty, remember these three things. 1) Salty could move to 1st, when Davis is filling in for a DL’d DH. 2) Teagarden has already impressed Rangers’ management, unlike Salty. 3) There’s no number three. If Teagarden leaves spring with the job, he moves up this list. So stay tuned! Or not! It’s your call really. 2009 Projections: 50/18/65/.265
