Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

Catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops for 2009 have been accounted for.  Up now, the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.   Lots of surprises in the top 20 for 3rd basemen.  On top, Mini-Donkey, Figgy, Longoria and Kung Fu Panda, which sounds like an anime cartoon that has a 75% chance of giving you a seizure.  (BTW, anyone ever watch anime?  It’s about giant robots that want to be loved.  That shizz is depressing.)  Then when you get to around the halfway mark-o, the drop off is precipitous. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Mark Reynolds – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

2. Chone Figgins – He’s actually right in line with the stats I predicted for him in the preseason.  So I knew exactly what he’d give you/me and I ranked him 15th.  This seems like crazy talk from a mental patient.  I’ve said it before, I’m obviously about to say it again.  I don’t like owning steals at 3rd base.  It puts you at a major disadvantage in the power department.  If you get 5 homers from your 3rd baseman, you better have Utley, Hill or Tulo giving you major power from your middle infield spots.  And, even then, I’d prefer to get 40 steals from a waiver wire pickup like Rajai Davis.  Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35, Final Numbers:  114/5/54/.298/42

3. Evan Longoria – He was right in line with my preseason predictions, but for some reason his season felt disappointing.  Not disappointing where he would be dropped in rankings for next season.  Not disappointing where he actually performed below expectations.  Disappointing in that he didn’t completely blow away expectations.  Kinda like how I felt after watching the first two seasons of Mad Men on DVD.  Solid, but wasn’t it supposed to be even better than that?  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7, Final Numbers:  100/33/113/.281/9

4. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the top 20 Catchers post. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

5. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman could’ve easily fell into the Alex Gordon, Delmon Young class with a poor season in 2009.  Luckily for him and his owners, he finally took the next step with his power.  Unfortunately, somewhere between Jim Bowden riding his Segway out of town and the Nats having another terrible season, Zimmerman stopped running.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7, Final Numbers:  110/33/106/.292/2

6. Kevin Youkilis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

7. David Wright – If I would’ve told you in March that you’d get 27 steals from Wright, I imagine you would’ve been over the moon, or whatever that old-timey expression is.  In 2009, Wright pulled his best impersonation of Alex Rios circa 2008.  Numbers aren’t necessarily terrible.  They’re just not at all what you expected.  If you wanted 10 homers and 25+ steals in the first round, you would’ve taken Victorino with the third pick of the draft.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14, Final Numbers: 88/10/72/.307/27

8. Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod ended giving a lot more steals than I thought he would.  Now, for the first time in a long time, he might actually be underrated going into next season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4, Final Numbers:  78/30/100/.286/14

9. Michael Young – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops post.  Didn’t have 3rd base eligibility in the preseason so was unranked.  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

10. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Chris Coghlan – Knowing I’m against Figgins as your third baseman, you can imagine how I feel about Coghlan.  The fact he ranked so high on this list really tells you all you need to know about the state of the hot corner.  If you take nothing away from this, know you want a 1st baseman in your corner infidel spot, not a 3rd baseman.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

13. Jorge Cantu – This was a classic terrible season that can absolutely kill your team.  I’ll explain.  You watch him come out of the gates in April on fire (7/22/.365).  You’re aware that he hit 29 homers the year before.  You’re psyched.  You just drafted Cantu later than most and now he’s going to have a career year.  May comes, he’s bad.  You know he’ll get better because April was so good.  June comes and he’s hitting for average again, but no pop.  You’re starting to get worried.  Was April a fluke?  July comes and he hits for average and still no power.  You’re officially sick of him.  August comes and the bottom falls out.  Finally, you’ve had enough.  You drop him.  Then, in September, he hits again on someone else’s team.  Finally, you find out Cantu impregnated your sister.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5, Final Numbers:  67/16/100/.289/3

14. Scott Rolen – Member back in the day when 85/20/95/.285 were “Injured Scott Rolen” numbers.  Well, get a load of what “Healthy Scott Rolen” numbers look like now…  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  76/11/67/.305/5

15. Casey Blake – When I went back to see where I ranked Blake in the preseason, I was actually kinda surprised I didn’t.  I think what happened was I started figuring out his predictions then I fell asleep.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/18/79/.280/3

16. Alberto Callaspo – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Russell Branyan – Here’s a guy that is the exact opposite of Jorge Cantu.  He gave you all the stats you needed from him then went to the DL.  Preseason Unranked, though he did appear in the first Buy/Sell of the season listed as a Buy.  Then he appeared in a late summer Sell column right before he disappeared into the abyss.  Net-net, natch.  Final Numbers:  64/31/76/.251/2

18. Mike Lowell – In January, I said, “‘Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.”  And that’s me quoting my trepidation!  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  54/17/75/.290/2

19. Chipper Jones – This was the year the Glass Chipper shattered.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5, Final Numbers:  80/18/71/.264/4

20. Aramis Ramirez – Not only did the two month DL stint murder his numbers, but even when he returned he didn’t always look like himself.  I blame Milton Bradley.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295, Final Numbers:  46/15/65/.317/2

Who doesn’t love to show their frenemies their fantasy baseball teams in October and say, “Look at what I won with?”  Then they see Juan Uribe and they’re confounded, “How did you win with Juan Uribe?”  That is the secret to fantasy baseball in September.  If you win your league, I guarantee someone will look at your team at the end of the year and be completely confused by some of the guys you own.  Cliff Pennington?  Robinson Tejeda?  Did the other teams in your league quit? No, you’re playing hot guys.  This is imperative at this time of the year.  Imperative is the important word to know.  Juan Uribe has not only been incredibly hot, but Uribe will confound your frenemies!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Juan Francisco – If I had to take a wild guess, I think Francisco will (try to) man the hot corner in the 2nd half of 2010 after the Reds unload Rolen for spare parts.  I say (try to) because Dusty doesn’t always play rookies.  Also, Francisco’s no guarantee.  He feels a bit to me like Troy Glaus, or even Chris Davis without the Bill James-inspired optimism, i.e., he strikes out nearly once per game and doesn’t walk enough.  He could provide some pop in deep NL-Only keepers.  This isn’t for you, mixed leaguers.

Robinson Tejeda – Wouldn’t be surprised if February Grey has nice things to say about Tejeda.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – He’s been good for a while now.  Like, the whole season.  So is Rowland his maiden name?

Vicente Padilla – After you read Uribe and now Padilla, I’m sure many of you are going to skim the rest of the post.  I don’t blame you.

Kevin Jepsen – SAGNOF!

Dan Wheeler – Could be the closer, but the Rays haven’t had a save since August.  It’s kinda not worth it, but if you’re in a pinch then I’d look at Wheeler since Maddon has said Howell and Balfour are on restrictions (bed by 9, no carbs and a low pitch count) for the rest of the season.

Matt LaPorta – Look at his last week of stats.  Yes, the MLP Package is finally on.

Drew Stubbs – Showing a bunch of power for a guy who looks like he wouldn’t be able to open the pickle jar.

Casey Blake – Currently murdering the ball like his brother, Robert… Well, you get it.

Brett Gardner – The Yankees are coasting into the ‘offs and Gardner could see an increase in playing time.  That means steals.

Kaz Matsui – Obviously, he’s the less glamorous of the Matsuis (Matsuii?) with a markedly smaller porn collection — buy at least a raincoat, man — but no hitter has been hotter over the past week.

Cliff Pennington – Batting near .400 over the last week with a homer and a steal.  And he sounds like a villain from an 80s movie — You spilled beer on my Izod!

Nick Swisher – Nick, your sideburns were just a crutch. Thank you, random italicized voice!

SELL

Yovani Gallardo – If you’re moving in the Tejedas and Uribes, you need to make room.  Gallardo is getting shutdown.  But he doesn’t wanna!  Yeah, that’s nice.  He should’ve been shut down a month ago.  Now I’m worried about him for next year because of all of his innings this year.  See, now you done worried me.

Chipper Jones – Lose the Glass Chipper.

B.J. Upton – Who’s the Boss?  Apparently, not the Bossman.

Rich Harden – Hasn’t been good recently and now he’s getting skipped.  I’m sure there’s better options out there.

Josh Hamilton – I don’t enjoy being right when I say a player is going to fail and they do.  Okay, let me rephrase that.  I do enjoy being right when I say someone is going to fail and they do.  There, that’s better.

Corey Hart is out for up to a month with an appendectomy.  My college roommate had an appendectomy and he returned from the hospital in 24 hours and back to drinking Olde E forties with me by Friday, which is what we called Tuesday.  Bill Hall will be recalled (Score one for NL pitchers) and Frank Catalanotto will see time in right field (score one for the Catalanottos).  Good thing the Brewers traded for Gerut.  Who?  Hey, you sound like Ken Macha!  I expect the Hart will go on in September.  If he gives you his biggest month of the season then, it’ll be about 4 homers and 4 steals for the month.  Whoopie!  If Hart’s still on your team, now’s as good a time as any to cut him, unless you have DL room.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler – Just hit the DL.  Usually he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin for another twenty games.  Kinsler was in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  Betcha can guess which side of the slash he fell on.

Neftali Feliz – Called up to come out of the bullpen.  Yes, he’s flippin’ awesome.  I know.  But out of the bullpen?  Eh.  If your league’s deep enough, I guess I could see it, but I’m not running out to grab him.

Frank Francisco – Activated and set up C.J. Wilson, who got the save.  Should be about a week until Francisco’s the closer again.  And about a week and a half until he’s back on the DL.

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 2 ER and his 10th win.  Incredible.  Three of my starters together don’t have 10 wins and this schmohawk does.  Feldman who has 58 Ks in 119 2/3 innings.  I hate wins.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2 HRs in his last three games.  If it’s a hot streak, it’s long overdue.

Ian Snell – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 6 baserunners.  Got the start for the M’s vs. the Rangers.  I don’t mind a pickup of Snell in 12 team leagues, but he gets the Rays then the Yanks in his next two starts.

Chad Billingsley – Left the game with a cramp.  Aw, it’s that time of the month.  He should be ready for his next start.

Casey Blake – Had problems swinging a bat during batting practice, now he’s headed for X-rays on his hand.  Coulda called me, I own X-ray glasses.  Thank you, back of a comic book.

Matt Kemp – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs with a homer from the five hole.  This was his first homer of the year while batting above the 6th spot. (<–Torre supplied that info.)

Scott Downs – To the DL.  What I don’t get is why was Downs the closer anyway?  It’s not like he has some absurd contract cough B.J. Ryan cough.  Jason Frasor takes over the job he should’ve had anyway.  I’d own Frasor in any league.

Scott Rolen – Beaned on the helmet by a pitch.  Phillies fans can’t believe it took that long for the voodoo doll work.  Rolen should be fine.  Phew…  The Reds playoff hopes are counting on him going 120/50/120/.450 and pitching 30 no-hitters in the last two months.

Drew Sutton – 2-for-5, has SS eligibility and 15/15 type appeal.  Do I think he can reach those numbers?  I have my doubts.  But Dusty hit him leadoff all weekend and Dusty is CRAZY enough to keep him there.  Worth a flier in NL-Only leagues, keeper and otherwise.  (Dusty gets crazy in caps, you shouldn’t have to ask.)

Jon Garland – 9 IP, 2 ER vs. Guess who.  The Mets.  C’mon, these are gimmes…  Kinda like starts vs. the Mets.

Miguel Montero – 3-for-5 as he hit cleanup.  Hinch, you don’t hit a catcher cleanup then platoon him with Chris Snyder.  I’m not sure why the D’Backs are forcing Snyder into the lineup every other day or so, but Miguel Montero’s value is taking a hit.  I’m sure Tonya Harding’s available (and cheap) if anyone wants to send her to the desert looking for Snyder.

Ty Wigginton – HR yesterday.  As I mentioned in Friday’s Buy/Sell, he goes from Mr. Wigginton to Dr. Donkowitz in August.  Why?  Beats the shizz out of me.

Ronnie Cedeno – HR yesterday with the Pirates.  All he needed was a change of scenary… And 120 MPH winds blowing out.

Elijah Dukes – Trouble’s back in the town called Malice.  Riggleman says Dukes will get the majority of starts and he should.  Definitely worth a flier in 12 team leagues and deeper.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Unfortunately, he pitched against Brian Bannister, who looked like his brother Bruce.  Would’ve been nice to get the win, but I was just happy to see Shields dominate.  Baby steps, Bob, baby steps.

Mark Buehrle – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now that’s how you make a correction to your season stats.

Gordon Beckham – I was getting some shizz in our fantasy baseball forums for pushing people to pick up Beckham.  In July, he hit .330 with 3 homers and 3 steals.  That’s kinda good for a guy who has shortstop eligibility.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 7 for his last 17 with two homers.  A’la Cher from Clueless, “AS-drubal!”

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 5 Ks, 4 walks, 2 hits.  That’s the problem.  The walks.  I suppose I’d own him for his next start, but I don’t think he’s going to have a rotation spot for much longer and he’s still a rookie and liable to roofie you.

Kendry Morales – 2 HRs, 6 RBIs.  March Grey told you he was a sleeper.  (Please ignore June Grey that told you to Sell him.  June Grey was phoning it in from a methadone clinic.  It was a dark time.)

Jered Weaver – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 Ks.  Sure would be nice to see him throw a game where he doesn’t give up 4+ earned, but the 11 Ks vs. the Twins is pretty impressive.

Orlando Cabrera – 1-for-3, HR yesterday as he batted 2nd.  He hit near .400 in July. (Ted Williams, “Unfreeze me when you do it over an entire season.”)  I’m not a huge fan of a guy who has light power and diminishing speed, but you can probably do worse at SS.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER vs. the A’s was a nice matchup and, for the rest of the season, Romero has matchup potential, but I think the Jays will have to begin to limit his innings.

Casey McGehee – Well, lookie what the MI schmohawk cat dragged in.  McGehee hit 2 homers in the last four games and has been playing regularly at 3rd base.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs.  Not  sure why, but I have a special place in my heart for Velez.  Maybe because he’s a buck thirty soaking wet.  Potatoes to chips, Velez is hitting near .500 over the last week.

Cole Hamels – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Did you really just get out-pitched by Barry Zito?  For shamels.

Jake Fox – Of course he hit a homer yesterday, he started.   I’m not what you would call a person who gets involved.  I yell, “Hands free,” to people who are talking on their cellphone while they’re driving, but that’s about the extent of my community involvement.  But if I were, say, a person who takes action, I’d start a campaign to make Jake Fox the catcher.

Victor Martinez – 5-for-6, 4 RBIs as the Red Sox won 18-10.  Without V-Mart, the Red Sox would’ve won 14-10.  Even the Yankees disapprovingly shook their heads mumbling, “Enough’s enough.”

David Ortiz – 0-for-5, 1 RBI.  Ticker Tease!

Clay Buchholz – 4 IP, 7 ER.  When you’re working with a 14 run cushion… Well… You gave him a shot.  It just didn’t work out.  I’d let him figure it out on someone else’s team.

Melky Cabrera – Hit for the cycle yesterday.  The guy who took four minutes to design “Got Melky” t-shirts at Cafepress is ecstatic.

(Note from Rudy:  I wanted the title, “Ditch Stitch Tits.”  Over Instant Messenger, Grey thickly said, “What’s with you and the stitch tits?  This is about Vlad, not Pamela Anderson.” It means Vlad had a pectoral tear.  Your pectoral is in your chest.  Sorry none of you could bask in my preferred title.  Now, carry on, Grey — lamer!)  Vladimir Guerrero is due back on Monday from a torn pectoral.  I’m not a doctor, but occasionally I played one in my preteen years.  All I know of the pectoral is it’s somewhere in Vlad’s body.  Do I have one?  Maybe.  No idea.  So let’s go with what I do know.  Scioscia lies; he lies when he cries that Vlad can’t play the outfield, but can DH, which he said on April 7th, right before Vlad missed six weeks.  When Vlad did finally hit the DL, some source that Jayson Stark won’t reveal (because this is just so damning I suppose) said, “When those offensive linemen get (the same injury as Vlad) in the NFL, they’re out for the year.”  So, assuming Vlad doesn’t need to block Jose Guillen from trying to tackle Scioscia, will Vlad be in the clear come Monday?  Not likely.  The injury that was only supposed to effect him when he throws has already sidelined him for 6 weeks from hitting.  I’m assuming the Angels brass got together and decided half of a Vlad (or Vl) was a lot more intimidating hitting in the middle of the lineup than sitting on the sidelines doing Sudoku.  This does not mean you need to have him in your fantasy lineup.  Remember last year from June on, Vlad only hit 20 homers, or about what Raul Ibanez has done already (Raul!).  Then you throw in the risk of having a player who is a Latin 34 with deteriorating skills and knees and he’s a sell.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brian Anderson – Could have some slight value in AL-Only leagues.  Though if you have a erection for longer than 4 hours after picking up Brian Anderson, you should seek advice from a doctor.

David Aardsma – He’s worked his way into the last two Buy/Sells going for the record of 4, which is currently held by last summer’s Cliff Lee when I kept telling people to sell him.  Hmm…

Jorge Posada – I’m not a huge fan of Jorge, but if he’s on waivers right now and you’re hurting for a catcher, I’d stash him in my DL spot.  He’s due back soon.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Paul Konerko – Not a thrilling name (he’s no Posada!) but he’s been hitting for average recently with power coming on.  He has 20 more homers in his bat.

Casey Blake – Keeping with the boring veteran theme, Blake’s good for 85/25/95/.270 and one alleged homicide.

Scott Hairston – Wait, where are the exciting names?  A hitter on the Padres?  This is the worst Buy/Sell ever! Thanks, random italicized voice.   Yeah, Hairston’s boring as dog balls and yawnstipating at best, but he’s hot right now and hitting in the middle of the Padres order.  I wouldn’t trade for him, but if you need a Hot Hitter Injection in your outfield, he’s worth a looksee.

Mat Gamel – Interleague is here and Gamel will see DH ABs.  Just hold him until the end of interleague because if he torches right handers this weekend, you’ll wish you gave him a few more days.  Oh, and if he hits righties like he’s capable of, he might platoon with H.A. double hockey sticks when they go back to those old school NL vs. NL match-ups.  Or Hall might move to 2nd.  All we need is just a little patience.

J.A. Happ – Will Happ be crapp?  PPotentially.  But he’s worth a pickup (don’t start him) in 12 team or deeper leagues.

Homer Bailey – Never trust a pitcher named Homer?  Well, not at first I wouldn’t.

Kris Medlen – Hmm… Let’s see if Grey can take out his magic stick on these schmohawks.  Happ, Medlen then Bailey, in that order.  But, guys, they’re all rookie pitchers.  You’re taking on a lot of risk.  As I’ve said before, a rookie hitter goes 0-for-16 and he does little damage to your team.  A rookie pitcher gives up 6 earned in 4 innings and it hurts.

Gil Meche - Like Meche much?  Yup.  Though not quite as much as this guy likes Brian Shouse.

Rafael Betancourt – Do I trust Betancourt at all?  No, but picking up cheap saves isn’t a trust exercise.

Jesus Guzman – He has Bugs Bunny numbers down in Triple-A, but he can’t field to the point where Gamel would be used as his defensive replacement.  Might just be up for the interleague series or he might relieve the Giants fans of having to watch Ishikawa bat.  In deep leagues and NL-Only ones, he’s worth a flier.  Oh, and in ESPN leagues, he’s eligible at shortstop.  Zoinks!

Jonny Gomes – Worth a flier in NL-Only leagues.  But Gomes is so AAAA.  So, in that way, he’s twice the player that Josh Hamilton is.

SELL

Jair Jurrjens – Jar-Jar’s a lot closer to a 3.75 ERA pitcher, instead of a 1.96 ERA.  His Ks are low and his luck is high.  But for those of you with Restless Trade Finger, don’t trade him for a bag of buttered popcorn and a postcard stamp.  He shouldn’t collapse.

Corey Hart – ’80s pop icon has been struggling, though hitting fine against righties.  (Fine’s obviously subjective here, but no worse than how he’s hitting against lefties.  But if the Brewers really wanted to mess with his mind, they could start Gerut against some righties.  You shouldn’t be dropping Hart, or selling him low, but it’s a situation to track.

Jose Lopez – Who are you, Lopez?  You’re not even a Sparky Anklebiter.  You suck.  Goodbye.

Adrian Beltre – A drain on my patience.  I’m done with you too.  Now don’t make me ever watch the Mariners again.  Frankly, I don’t ever even want to go to Seattle now.  You ruined it for me.  Are you happy?

Howie Kendrick – Batting 9th, but let’s assume that’s the 2nd number one hitter in the order.  Okay, so he’s batting in front of Figgins and Erick Aybar… He’s going to get bunted to third every time he gets on base?  Goodbye, hate you too.

Trevor Hoffman – Currently has a 0.00 ERA. That actually might have people believing he’s about to save 40 games.  Well, maybe he does, but if you can trade Hoffman for an every day hitter or a “go pitcher,” remember SAGNOF.

Roy Oswalt – Name value is all that’s carrying him at this point.  His Ks are down.  He’s not even being particularly unlucky.  His men left on base are about where they should be.  He’s looking like a 4.50 ERA pitcher right now.  Hold the sides of your head because I’m about to blow your mind.  Wandy’s better than Roy.

Conor Jackson – Gag me with a spoon!  Jackson contracted Valley Fever that turned into pneumonia which has given his owners the boogie woogie blues.  This pneumonia – which may drag on all year like Casey Kotchman’s mono – makes him droppable in all but NL-only formats.

Andruw Jones – Your laissez faire attitude was fine when you were in your twenties, but now you’re just fat and lazy and hope everything comes easy to you.  Me to Andruw, not my Mom to me.  I’m not fat.