Fantasy Baseball Advice

Andrew Bailey bettah work on his non-rhotic (Word of the Day!) pronunciations cause he’s headed to the town of beans.  This is my town and these are my beans!  Not to say I told you so, but to tell you I told you so.  When Melancon went to the Sawx, I said, “The GM over in Beantown says Melancon is “capable of closing.”  In big market speak, that means he won’t be the closer.  Melancon is the stereotypical small market closer, big market set-up man.”  Prescient ain’t just a word you need a spell checker for.  It’s a state of mind!  Bailey will be absolutely fine as a closer when he’s healthy, which is to say maybe 4 of 6 months of the season if the Sawx are lucky.  So Melancon will get some saves, say, maybe, I don’t know, interjection, 10 saves.  It’s not bad for a guy that won’t be drafted in many leagues.  This also solidifies the Sawx’s intention of putting Bard into the rotation.  I think it’s slightly crazy talk, but I’m wearing a burlap sack and drinking a Capri Sun without a straw so what do I know?  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves and what they mean for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into today’s post, just want to say that if you’re into fantasy basketball, you should check out the work Adam’s doing; it’s smart and funny, and I don’t know basketball at all.  One time I was playing a pick up basketball game and I tried to do a layup and I threw the ball over the backboard.  I was like, “Call me Calista Flockhart cause I’m throwing up shizz.”  Ah, the laughs we had.  Then I was never picked to play on a team again.  Anyway II, some offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Josh Reddick – Heads to the A’s on the other side of the Bailey hullabaloo.  Did Beane get enough?  I don’t know.  Instead, let’s ask ourselves this:  Did Braun test positive because he was treating herpes?  In Triple-A, Reddick hit .127 in 2009, then .266 in 2010, then .230 last year.  So I’d be surprised if he hits above .260 over the course of the 2012 season.  He has shown the ability to hit for power, but now he moves to the unfriendly confines of Oakland.  Best case scenario, you’re getting a 15/10/.260 guy.  It’s all right, but if he fails to meet those modest expectations, he’s nothing but a third outfielder for AL-Only leagues.  Herpes, Braun, really?  That’s your defense?  That’s like telling your wife you killed her cat to take your mind off cheating on her.  Braun, you couldn’t say you tested positive because you were taking some non-FDA approved Chinese medicine for migraines?  Who’s advising this schmohawk?

Casey Blake – To Rockies.  When Blake’s healthy, Cuddyer will move to the outfield.  (30% of the time.)  When Blake’s injured, Cuddyer will play 3rd base.  (45% of the time.)  When Helton’s injured, Cuddyer will play 1st base. (20% of the time.)  When Cuddyer and Blake are both healthy, but the Rockies feel like playing someone else they’ll work in Seth Smith or Eric Young Jr.  (15% of the time.)  (I have no idea if those percentages add up, but you get the general gist.  By the way, General Gist would be a great band name.  “Have you heard General Gist’s new album, Neither Here Nor There?  It’s awesome!”  Speaking of great bands, loving the new Black Keys album.  Love!)  In the end, this has nothing to do with Casey Blake or Michael Cuddyer or even Nolan Arenado.  The Rockies absolutely refuse to give Seth Smith a regular job.  Maybe someone in the front office has a lisp and can’t stand to say Seth Smith has a starting job.  Oh, and they hate Eric Young Jr.’s guts.  The Rockies are Mike Scioscia and Eric Young Jr. is Mike Napoli.  Just trade that ain’t-getting-any-younger Young to a team that will let him play.  Please.

Sean Marshall – Off to the Reds in a swap of Marshall and Travis Wood.  Right now the Reds are saying Marshall may serve as the closer.  That’s just a bargaining tool against Francisco Cordero.  Marshall’s not going to be the closer.  He’ll be a setup man to either Cordero or Chapman, who is supposed to start as of right now but I don’t think that’s gonna happen either.  Here’s a formula for you:  What a GM Says + Reality = Nothing.

Travis Wood – To the Cubs in the aforementioned mentioning of Marshall.  I have a feeling the Reds are going to regret losing Wood.  Dusty Baker, “I haven’t lost wood since that one time in the 70′s when George Foster unexpectedly walked into my hotel room.”  If the Cubs play their hand right, they’ll send Wood to the minors to regain his confidence then bring him back when the time is right.  If he makes the rotation, he’s nothing but a cheap flyer in NL-Only leagues.  I would be very aware of him in keeper leagues though.  He does have number two starter upside.

Gio Gonzalez - Beane pulled another trade.  Can someone say Moneyball sequel?!  Actually, if you can’t say it, you should see a speech therapist.  How about the Nats looking like they’re gonna be contenders?  Hopefully they get some new announcers so it’s not as wretched watching them.  Get back Dibble so he can call into question a guy headed for Tommy John surgery!  I love that kind of manic enthusiasm.  Anyway, Gonzalez wasn’t nearly the pitcher his 3.12 ERA showed last year, but he has far exceeded his xFIP the last two years while posting solid K numbers.  I’m willing to get on the Gio aeroplane in twelve past twenty (BTW, that’s what I’m calling 2012, go with it).  A guy that is moving to the NL with a 8.78 K-rate is plenty all right, even with the wonky walks.

Brad Peacock – With Gio going to the Nats, Peacock gets inserted into the A’s.  That sounds like it hurts!  Which Billy Beane is making these trades anyway?  Peacock had a great season in Double- and Triple-A last year, putting up a 2.39 ERA and a 177/47 K/BB line.  The A’s basically got Gio Gonzalez back.  I’m gonna be all about Peacock in 2012 like I just woke up from a nap after drinking seven glasses of water.

Tommy Milone – Just another great arm bagged by Beane.  I’m not saying the Nats paid too much for Gio but — Well, actually, I am saying that.  They just paid the price of two potential Gios for one real Gio.  (Not to mention, A.J. Cole, who was also received, has a great arm but is just a bit young for our purposes, and Derek Norris will slide in nicely once the A’s move on from their Suzuki sidekick. What an ugly trade by the Nats.)  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  Hello, beautiful.  Peacock and Milone will have match-ups appeal in 2012 for mixed leagues and be sexy sleepers for AL-Only leagues.

Jim Johnson – O’s said he’ll open the season as the closer.  I’d go ahead and drink that Jim Johnson Kool-Aid.  O’s are competing for 4th place in the AL East so they have no reason not to use Johnson.  Though I think Selig now made the 4th place finisher in the AL East a playoff team.  Need to double check that.

Carlos Beltran – Cards add Beltran to their Rafael Furcal/Lance Berkman-powered lineup.  Your 2012 Cardinals are brought to you by Bengay and the used 1994 Chrysler LeBaron in your driveway.

Justin Smoak has back-to-back days with home runs and back-to-back-to-back games with a home run.  Say that fast 117 times!  Where there’s Smoak, there’s fire!  See what I did there?!  Did you see?!  Yeah, of course you did, it was pretty obvious.  Smoak seems to be the hot schmotato of the moment.  (Hot schmotato hasn’t made its official way yet into the glossary.  Just taking it out for a test drive, seeing how it feels.  It does have that new Razzball glossary word smell.)  If you’re currently rocking a corner infidel that doesn’t excite you or your nipples, grab Smoak.  Kid’s got talent and might just be coming into his own.  The lost Smoak monster is found!  (BTW, he was a preseason sleeper.  Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, bassoon.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks.  When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty a’ight, so, sure, I’d grab him.  As Fonzie’s horse would say, what the hey!

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 6 ER, 13 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Fudge!  Only I didn’t say fudge, I said the mother of all curse words.

Mark Teixeira – Left the game with a shoulder injury.  Joe Girardi said it wasn’t serious.  Then again, Joe Girardi wears braces.  We’re supposed to believe this guy?  Does Joe Girardi own Te(i)x on his fantasy team?  Well?

Phil Hughes – His arm went through five more hours of testing.  Hopefully his arm gets into its school of choice.

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks. You should pick him up (for someone else’s team after stealing their password).

Eduardo Sanchez – 1 IP, 2 ER with the save.  This is your brain.  This is your brain trying to figure out who La Russa is gonna use to close games.  But whatever cuz Eduardo looked like Retardo Montalban and promptly gave up some runs.  The closing job is cursed!  I’d grab Boggs, Sanchez, Franklin (recorded no outs and gave up 2 runs in this game) or Motte.  Really in any order, and hope you choose right because this closerousel is off the hinges and the horses are going up down all willy-nilly and shizz with no leather straps.

Brett Wallace – 11 for his last 17.  Another hot schmotato.  (It’s starting to feel a bit more comfortable.)  Hitting .524 in the last week.  Yeah, go ahead and grab him.

Roy Oswalt – Left the Phillies due to personal reasons.  A source close to the situation says Oswalt was playing Halladay in Words With Friends and Halladay played “djin” on a triple word and Oswalt threw his cellphone in the garbage and left.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Hommy Tanson!

Chipper Jones – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs.  Glass Chipper has the 2nd most RBIs in the major leagues.  In other news, RBIs are stupid.

Mat Latos – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks and 5 unearned runs for the agita-filled ticker shock.

Jeff Francoeur – 2-for-4 with his fifth Freedom Fly.  For Frenchy, this might be as good as it baguettes, but go with him while it’s good.

Jim Thome – The Founding Father of Country Strong is day-to-day with a slight oblique strain.  More time to chop wood and chew tobacco.

Delmon Young – Headed to the DL with ribcage soreness.  Maybe Mauer coughed on his ribs.

Francisco Liriano – 3 IP, 7 ER.  If anyone wants to join me when I go to Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome to throw a brown bag filled with crap at Liriano, more the merrier.

Tyson Ross – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Maybe I just want some Oakland A’s pitching action because it seems like they all can pitch, but I like Ross.  More in deep leagues than your run-of-the-mill variety, but still.

Carl Crawford – 0-for-4, hitting .156.  His start of the season reminds me of that terrific quote from Lawrence Taylor.  “My life is in the toilet and no one is flushing.”

Ryan Howard – Hit his 4th home run to keep pace with Shane Victorino, who hit his 4th homer earlier in the game.

Domonic Brown – Homered in his first rehab game.  I see your surgically-repaired hamate bone and I raise you a whole lot of talent.

Krispie Young – Hit two Krispie flies.  Not entirely sure why he’s leading off since walking for him is a feat.  Pun point!

Will Venable – 2 steals to bring his total to 8 while he hits .183.  I know what’s going on here, Venable’s trying to get his face on the SAGNOF t-shirt.

Alexi Ogando – When asked if Ogando would stay in the rotation when Hunter, Webb or Feldman returns, Ron Washington said, “I’m not taking him out of the rotation if he continues to pitch like this.  I’m not going to rob Peter to pay Paul.  Paul has to earn his pay.   Ogando is Peter and those guys are Paul.”  Doesn’t that sound like something Jules would say in Pulp Fiction?  Think we know what Washington’s wallet says.

Madison Bumgarner – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Sonavabench!  I’ve figured out what it takes for one of my starters to pitch well.  I have to bench them.  Works like a charm.  A charm that is infected with typhoid fever and gives you the shakes.  A charm, nevertheless.

James McDonald – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Or I can just drop them.  That works too.

Jose Tabata – 1-for-4, now batting .267.  Member when him, The Dread Pirate and Neil Walker were all batting .350+?  I liked that.  Can we go back to that?

Roger Bernadina – 2-for-2 but didn’t start.  Might want to cover your ears for a second… LET HIM PLAY, NATS!  YOU IDIOTS!

Casey Blake – Out for a month with gray-haired, old man brittle bones.  “I have gray-haired, old man brittle bones!  Watch me creak!”  That’s what Blake said.

Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t appear in the game because his elbow was a little tender.  Or al dente, if you will.

Vicente Padilla – Recorded his first save.  The over/under for Padilla saves is 7.  I’m taking the under.  I highly doubt he gets more than 4 after Kuo returns.  In deep leagues or those leagues where you’re bonkers desperate for saves, by all means.

Andre Ethier – 2-for-5 with his third homer as he pushes his hitting streak to 24 games.  Los Angeles hasn’t seen a streak like this since Mike Piazza frosted his hair.

In opposite world, news that Andrew Bailey hurt himself comes as a complete shock.  Here’s what I said in the top 20 closers for 2011 fantasy baseball, “Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.”  Hey, Bailey, throw already!”  And that’s me quoting me!  Unfortunately, when Bailey is cleared to start throwing he leaves games with tightness in his forearm.  Wouldn’t be surprised to hear Bailey will miss the season for more surgery as he’s off to see Dr. Freeze.  Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden and Andrew Bailey board your cross country flight, do you get off and wait for the next one knowing that something bad is bound to happen?  I do.   I take no pleasure in watching Bailey go down; less pleasure in watching Balfour or Fuentes take over.  In leagues where we had the option, we grabbed Fuentes because he has a lengthier closer resume, assuming the Sciosciapath isn’t listed as a reference.  Fuentes could get 35 saves this year.  Would surprise me as much as Bailey’s injury.  Anyway, here’s some other news for fantasy baseball:

Neftali Feliz – Now he wants to be the starter.  And I wanna be the King of Hawaii and wear a coconut bra.  Things don’t always work out the way you want them.  It’s worth grabbing Ogando or O’Day.  Rudy thinks Ogando has better upside; I say O’Day is otay.  You can go with this or you can go with that.  The choice is yours.

Drew Storen – The Nats keep saying they want to go to a closer by committee.  Which is nudge, nudge, wink, wink for, “Storen, pull away with the job!”  Unfortunately, Storen’s nudge, nudge, wink, wink translator was locked up for being within 250 feet of a high school.  If you have room, Clippard is a decent handcuff.

Casey Blake – What, no more closing news?  That’s some bullshizz!  Blake has a sore back.  He’s old; these things happen.  He probably also wakes up 7 times a night to pee.  You shouldn’t be drafting Blake anyway, unless your league has a rule that you must own one player with a wife killer surname.

Mike Morse – I write a post about how you should ignore spring training numbers on Friday then people get excited about Morse hitting five homers in nine games on Monday.  Chris Shelton called, he wants his home runs back.  If there’s any sort of blahtoon in the Nats outfield, Morse is sitting vs. righties.  That kills his value.  If Morse gets 550 ABs, he could hit 24 homers with no speed and a .280 average.  But that ‘if’ has its own zoning project that is currently getting gentrified.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely own him.  In mixed leagues under 15 teams, you’re taking a flyer that is probably going to bore you.

Jason Heyward – Missed two games with back stiffness.  Weird, I get stiffness when I watch him play.  What, too much?  Oh, sorry, Prudey McPrudestein.  I’m not worried about Heyward.  It’s spring training, players have nagging shizz that teams want to baby because these games mean nothing.  He’s good, you’re good, we’re good.

Ian Stewart – About to return from a strained MCL.  (A strained 1150?  Doode, get out of the Middle Ages!)  Stewart will DH out of the gate and then hit against righties once the season starts.  I’m really starting to think Stewart’s not going to be a full-time player, which hurts his and Wigginton’s value.  Really need one to get ghost chili hot and make the other obsolete.

Zach Duke – Broken hand, which gives Diamondback fans two months to enjoy a non-Zach Duke rotation.  This leaves Armando Galarraga, Uncle Barry Enright and Aaron Heilman set to go into the Octagon for the final rotation spots with Heilman probably getting eye gouged.

Johan Santana – Someone in the always-entertaining Mets organization said Johan won’t pitch this year.  Johan said someone in the Mets organization is lying.  I believe Johan, but that still doesn’t mean he’s pitching this year.  If he has one setback and the Mets do their usual Mr. Bungle in the NL East, there’s no rush to bring him back.

Chris Dickerson – Left the game after running into the now-slimmed down Sandoval.  This is like when George “The Animal” Steele used to chew off the turnbuckle.  Don’t run into Sandoval without the padding!

Kila Ka’aihue went 3-for-3, 4 Runs, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  Also, he just missed a third homer that ended up a triple.  Mauna Kila!  He hasn’t hit for much average so far in the major leagues.  Or is it ma’ajor leagues?  His plate discipline is in impeccable and the peasant Royals would be wise to give him a starting job next spring, which could make him a sleeper for 2011 fantasy baseball.  But you put the wise moves the Royals make in one hand and the stupid moves in the other hand and you’ll need the empty hand that was supposed to hold the wise moves to help hold up the stupid moves hand.  Then have someone else move everything off the counter so there’s room to balance the weight of both hands that have become stupid move hands.  Then get some Lysol because it smells like rancid onions.  Oh, and Kila has another homer in the last week and is worth playing in the final week if you’ve lost some other players.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Fields – Now 4 for his last 8 with 2 homers.  It must be ‘games don’t matter’ time, because the Royals look terrific.  Fields is worth a flier if you’re looking for a hot bat.

Jarrod Dyson – Promise this is the last Royal I’ll talk about.  Dyson is 1 for his last 23.  So why is it I own him on multiple teams?  Cause he also has 4 steals in that time.  SAGNOF!

Eric Young Jr. – With a bad case of the shins, Young’s done for the year and left wincing the night away.

Melvin Mora – 2-for-4 with a bunch of multiple hit games in the last week.  Yes, that’s all the optimism I can manage.  He’s hitting, what do you want?  (BTW, Nice job by the Colorado Chokies.  You can’t beat the Dodgers?  Really?  That’s pretty pathetic.)

Casey Blake – 2-for-5, 2 homers.  Yes, every borderline corner infidel is hot this week.  Thanks for asking.

Kenley Jansen – Got his 2nd save this week, but Kuo’s still the closer.  What I think is going on is Torre’s trying to burn out as many bullpen arms as he can in his final week for old times’ sake.

Adam Wainwright – La Russa, wearing a shirt made of veggie burgers, announced Wainwright’s done for the year.

Martin Prado – Also, done for the year.  He said this will give him more time to catch up on the episodes of I Love Money that he missed.  Hope he’s not too disappointed with the early elimination of 20 Pack.

Miguel Cabrera – Sounds like he’s done too.  No official word, but if you’re reading Leyland’s smoke signals, that’s what’s being said.

Carlos Beltran – Left the game with knee discomfort.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he were done for the year.  Don’t worry, Mets fans, Minaya’s working on a trade of Beltran’s knee for Chipper Jones’ lower back.

Randy Wolf – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He’ll get the Reds in the last game of the season, which should be an absolute walk as I’m sure Dusty will sit everyone.  Hmm… That was weird.  I was thinking like Dusty Baker and I suddenly wanted to chew a toothpick and throw Harang for 175 pitches.

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Solid start, but this isn’t about that.  His next start (if there is one) will be the last game and, as previously mentioned, the Reds are going to be playing the game like an split squad spring training game.  I wouldn’t start Volquez in most leagues.

David Price – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the last game of the season for Price.  Sorry, Price owners, would mean no Sunday vs. the Royals and Sean O’Sullied.  If he does start, Price may only go a few innings to stay fresh.

CC Sabathia – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks as he further confused Joe Morgan and how he’s not a landslide Cy Young winner.  Someone give Joe one of those water dunking birds to stare at.

Travis Snider – 2-for-4 with his third homer in the last week while he bats near .350.  Almost making Cito look good for batting Snider leadoff… Well, no, Snider leading off still looks silly, but he is hitting.

Mat Latos – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I appreciate his efforts to bring his value down for next year’s drafts.  The real shame is the Padres might’ve overworked Latos to the point where he could be a mess next year and they might not make the playoffs either.

Carlos Pena – 1-for-2 with his 28th homer.  It almost goes without saying if he got a hit, it must’ve been a homer.  He doesn’t do those other kinds of hits.  Now Pena only needs 11 more homers to get to my preseason projection.  Get cracking!

Anibal Sanchez – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Anibal gets the Pirates in the last start of the year.  I’d throw him (her?) there.

Ryan Braun – Scratched with a stomach flu.  I’m not accusing anyone, but my H2H opponent poisoned Braun’s oatmeal so I couldn’t play him.  Okay, I am accusing someone.

Nick Blackburn – 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  As I said last week, “Blackburn has around a 3.5 K/9.  To use the parlance of Johnnie Cochran, that’s egregious.  That’s an inning for Carlos Marmol.  Blackburn gets more bat contact than a wannabe-WAG.  When Twins fans go to a Nick Blackburn start, they bring so few K signs that they look racist.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Since there’s no Ks, it’s than but no thans for Blacburn’s last start.

Kelly Johnson – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer in September, after hitting 9 homers in April.  Someone likes the change of seasons.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Gets the Astros for his final game of the season, which isn’t a bad start to go out on.

Alfonso Soriano – Hit his 23rd and 24th homers last night.  He might be having the worst 24 homer season in the history of baseball.  67 Runs?  Blech.  78 RBIs?  Belch.  5 steals?  Whatever.  .257 average?  Al-So’s so-so.

Jimmy Rollins – Returned to the lineup and went 1-for-3.  It’s the last week of the season, forget name value.  There’s probably a dozen guys more valuable for this last week.

Jose Contreras – Gave up a run and lost the game to the Nats.  It’s the curse of being on the cover of the AARP Magazine.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  The Nats have four more games for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Justin Smoak – Last roundup, I said, “I’d give Smoak a go for his last two games in Texas.”  Yesterday, he hit another homer.  Right now, there’s a fire burning under Smoak.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks to move to 13-12 on the year with a 2.27 ERA.  Says he’ll pitch on Sunday so he has one more start for the M’s offense to abandon him and let him get back to .500.  I will now bludgeon Jose Lopez with Chone Figgins’ arm.

Jose Lopez – Left the game with a dislocated middle finger.  I’m sure anyone that drafted Lopez can locate a middle finger for him.

I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)