Fantasy Baseball Advice

To come up with the 20 biggest draft busts — pitcher’s edition! — I used Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. Some of the schmohawkiest pitchers, like Carlos Silva, I left off. Not because he was better than expected, but because he was as expected. That’s not a bust. This is similar to Tim Gunn’s monkey house analogy that goes something like this, “If you visit the monkey house, it smells like crap. If you live in the monkey house, it no longer smells like crap.” In each entry of the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly some of these fantasy baseball pitchers shat your proverbial house. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Daniel Cabrera - No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain - His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman - Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett - Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano - 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto - Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine - I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis - Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero - This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano - What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez - Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo - At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell - He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang - If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill - Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz - Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona - When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard - It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang - Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander - 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

First the Brewers fire their manager in September, then they pitch CC on three days rest for about a month after letting him throw 150 pitches per start for two months and now they rush back their prized pitcher, Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are officially trying to choke worse than the Mets, while the Mets are showing they weren’t one-flop wonders last year. Too bad the Astros and the Diamondbacks just flat out sucked for three months or they’d be battling for the Wild Card. Gallardo will probably only get to the fourth or fifth inning so he might not have much value. Then again, the Brewers may let him throw 100+ pitches until he turns the ball over to Sabathia for the final three innings. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa - HR yesterday and then a leg injury forced him out of the game. Ah, the agony and the ecstasy… What? I was being poetic.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday for the 4th game in a row. I told you to pick up Blalock two days before he hit his first. But whatever, you like to be difficult. It’s your thing.

Michael Young - 4-for-4, I think he still has, like, a fractured finger or something. If not scoring the winning run would help the Rangers go into extra innings and allow Young a chance for 200 hits, he would not score that run.

Carlos Zambrano - Since his no-hitter, he’s been a crap satay.

Willy Taveras - Done for the season with a stress fracture. Back date this to August. Dude stole 68 bases this year and collected only 64 runs. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time in a long time, maybe even forever, that someone stole as many as 68 bases and failed to score that many runs. Okay, maybe they didn’t say that. But here are some things heard around Elias Sports Bureau’s office in the last week, “Gloria, Roy’s secretary, said ‘It’s Jayson Stark calling’ thirty-eight times this week for a new office record,” “Roy said ‘Tell Stark I’m in a meeting’ a record thirty-eight times this week,” and “For a record ten times in one day, Mike coughed “loser” when asked if he was going to William’s birthday party.”

David DeJesus - Left yesterday’s game with a high hip flexor something or other. May not play again this year. Buh-but the Royals are fighting for 4th place!

Edinson Volquez - Likely done for the year. Finally drafting Cueto and Harang before Volquez looks like a smart move.

Andy Pettitte - Done for the year. Aceves will start on Saturday. I like that start, friend.

Ryan Franklin - Got another save. Looks like he’s the Cards closer for the final weekend. Do take note, save vultures.

Manny Delcarmen - There’s more vulture saves where that came from, carcass breath. The Sawx rested Papelbon and gave the save to Manny of Carmen.

Cameron Maybin - 3-for-3 with a steal before leaving the game with a stiff hip. Two stiff hips and he wouldn’t be able to walk out of the bar. Ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Eubanks.

Rafael Furcal - Was activated from the DL, and got into the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning. I wouldn’t expect too much from him these final few days; Torre says he’ll play “here and there. And I love cannolis.”

Adam Wainwright - In his last start of the year, gave up two earned in six innings. Decent return from injury in the 2nd half. That real upside of his struggles this year will be the fresh arm he’ll have next year. He’ll be on 75% of my teams next year, fo sho.

Mark Reynolds - His 199th K last night to tie the major league record. Earlier in the year, Rudy and I had a friendly wager going for who would strikeout the most, Cust or Reynolds. Unless Cust Ks eight more times than Reynolds this weekend, I should have it locked up. In other words, this bet is still very much undecided.

Max Scherzer - 5 IP, 2 ER. Last start of the year and he’s had prettier ones. I will write a lot more about Jobacum this offseason.

Todd Jones - He’s thrown his last 76 MPH fastball as he announced his retirement in his The Sporting News column. Other topics he covered in his column, “Real Men Rely on Finesse,” “Pussies Throw Fast,” and “Where have you gone, Fu Manchu mustache?” Pour some prune juice out for Jones.

What’s the difference between the ‘Stros and Stroh’s beer? The beer has an H.  ‘Stros couldn’t manage one. While 110 pitches is a slight stretch for Zambrano given he had missed 2 starts to injury, that was just an exhibition game’s amount of work when Dusty was coaching him. If anyone could throw an 150 pitch no-hitter like the type we used to throw in Wiffle Ball, it was Zambrano. This was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since 1972 which was also the last year that they were within 65 years of a championship. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Price - In a relief appearance today against the Yankees, David Price made his major league debut. He pitched 5 and 2/3 innings, gave up 2 ER (only one really, the other scored off Hammel after he left) and he looked impressive against a top-notch offense. He’s scheduled for one start on September 23rd against the Orioles. He’s worth the spot start and he might have some value as a middle reliever for AL-Only teams the rest of the year, but David Price’s real value is in keeper leagues and for next year.

Max Scherzer - 6 IP, 1 ER with 9 Ks. Scherzer took it to the Reds like he was McCarthy.

Andy LaRoche - 3-for-4, but they were all singles. It’ll be interesting to see if the Pirates give LaRoche a chance to play next spring. It’ll be even more interesting to see if Andy LaRoche can live up to his billing as the superior LaRoche brother. Our prediction is that their performance doesn’t get the Pittsburgh faithful singing “We Are Family” anytime soon.

Aaron Cook - 8 IP, 0 ER, might have some value down the stretch if you’re streaming starters. Cook’s usually a pretty reliable, just above average pitcher.

Kevin Gregg - Pulled after pitching to one batter in the ninth. Lindstrom’s still the closer, he was just overworked. Gregg’s about as likely to take over the closer role again as the Marlins are to having a Fidel Castro Bobblehead Doll Day.

Phil Hughes - Will get the start this Wednesday against the White Sox. That doesn’t mean he needs to be on your team.

Vladimir Guerrero - Will sit out three to four games this week. I told you to drop Vlad the other day.

Andre Ethier - Missed the last two games of the Rockies series because his wife is giving birth. Will return to the team on Monday. Why isn’t Juan Pierre helping Ethier’s wife with Lamaze? Or freakin’ James Loney.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis! No, I am Sparkakis!

Oscar Salazar - 2 HRs. Who? Some total schmohawk, but he also went deep on Saturday. These last two days are surely aberrations (Word of the Day), but if he puts some aberrations together to turn them into regulariocities (Made Up Word of the Day), then you might want to grab him in H2H leagues.

Radhames Liz - 8 IP, 0 ER. Not an option in any league. Unless you’re in a league where your pitchers’ first names have to sound like an expensive condom.

Nick Blackburn - 4 IP, 6 ER. His last name and strikeout totals make him sound like a Pirate. He’s not, he’s a Twin and he has excellent command, which makes him yawnstipating but effective.

Oliver Perez - 7 IP, 2 ER. So consistently inconsistent that it was only fitting that the Mets’ consistently inconsistent bullpen blew his chance at a win.

Luis Ayala - Blew a big game for the Mets. The kind of game that pundits point to as the one that got away. Obviously no one ever told pundits it’s impolite to point. The blown save and breach of etiquette caused Billy Wagner to cry again.

Cameron Maybin - Will be called up on Monday. Could be cheap steals if the Marlins play him. SAGNOF.

Matt Garza - Will start on three days rest on Wednesday. This isn’t great news. He had a nice rhythm going where he was good every other start. This move might throw off his rhythm.

Jeremy Sowers - In three innings, Sowers gave up 3 ER on 75 pitches. Or about half as many pitches Lincecum threw in a shutout on Saturday.

Justin Upton - HR yesterday that went about 450 feet to straightaway center. I’ll be getting excited about this guy in the offseason.

Shane Victorino - HR in the first game, 4-for-4 in the second game. The Flyin’ Hawaiian got his wings back.

Brett Myers - 9 IP, 1 ER and only 2 hits. Afterwards, Brett felt really bad saying he didn’t mean two-hitter.

Kila Ka’aihue will need a nickname if he plans on being as good as he looked in the minors this year. How about Misplaced Apostrophe? Nope. Ka’aihue hits home runs and, get this, doesn’t strikeout. Weird! Check this out, Tootsie Roll. He had 67 strikeouts and 104 walks. Sign me up! Wait, you haven’t even heard the exciting part yet. He hit the fourth most HRs in the minor leagues in 2008 with 37, which were hit between Double-A and Triple-A. How about the nickname, Keanu? It means Cool Breeze Over the Mountains in Hawaiian. Nope. Ka’aihue has to battle for playing time on the Royals, but if he gets some, I’d take a flier in AL-Only leagues and monitor closely in keeper leagues and mixed leagues. How about The Big Island? Hmm, that’s not bad. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Josh Fields - With Crede suffering from back pain (Crede should totally go see my acupuncturist. She speaks no English and she tries to charge me double every time I go, but still she’s like Anne Sullivan with needles.), Guillen turns to Uribe, a guy that somehow has had a major league career. C’mon, Josh Fields Forever…

Josh Anderson - Who’s this effin’ schmohawk Grey’s touting this week? Easy there, guy. I’ll slice you. Josh Anderson has started every game in the last week and he has a home run and three steals. If you’re hurting for steals, you can do worse.

Mike Lowell - If he was dropped in your league, he’d due back today.

Dexter Fowler - Worth a NL-Only flier in keeper leagues. He might be someone to look at late in the season if/when the Rox get Elimidated by the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. He might not have a spot next year, but I think the Rox are going to do all they can to move on from Taveras.

Brandon Wood - Starting just about every game. When the Angels clinch, which is academic at this point, Wood should see even more time as Scioscia gives his regulars some rest.

Travis Snider - I mentioned picking up Travis Snider earlier today. And that’s me linking to me!

James Loney - My first baseman had a second name, it’s L-O-N-E-Y. He’s a .370 September hitter.

Casey Kotchman - Since we’re talking about 1st basemen that don’t have a cholesterol problem. Kotchman bats near .320 in September.

Rafael Furcal - At middle infield, you can afford to gamble on a DL slot.

Mike Hessman - With the Tigers playing for nothing and Guillen hurting, Hessman could see time at 3rd base. He had 32 home runs in Triple-A this year and he was awesome in Head of the Class.

SELL

Carlos Zambrano - He’s inflammed! Inflammed, I tell ya!

Mike Lamb -Well, he got the “out like a Lamb” part right.

Carlos Gomez - Bad week for Carloses (Carli?). In some leagues, where I’m desperate for steals, I’m holding him, but the Twins have been going out of their way to find other options. You probably should too.

Brandon Morrow - Let’s be realistic, he hasn’t been that good in the minors while stretching myself out, he pitches for the Mariners (F-Her is 9-9) and he won’t last much longer than six innings in any start. If you’re in a pinch, I could see taking a flier. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Gary Sheffield - He’d show you, but he’s too old; too banged up and too fuckin’ blind– I mean… See the first two.

Evan Longoria - I had my doubts about Longoria returning, and now he’s yet to pickup a bat, 4 days after he was supposedly returning. There’s. Three. Weeks. Left.

Carlos Guillen - This is the time of year that regulars give way to rooks, especially on clubs that are out of it. This goes double for guys who are battling injury. En garde, Injury!

Carlos Quentin - Actually, it’s an awful week for Carloses. He has a fractured wrist. Drop him in all leagues, except keepers.

Ervin Santana went 7 and one-third innings yesterday, gave up one earned run and struckout eight. For the season, he has an impressive 169/51 K/BB ratio– Oh, wait, that’s Johan Santana. Ervin Santana has actually been better at 191/44. (BTW, no wonder Earvin Johnson went by Magic. You can’t write or say Ervin or Earvin by itself. You have to add in the last name just to make it sound normal.) This season Ervin (weird, right?) has cut his HRs allowed and his numbers aren’t pointing to a regression for next year. Know what’s been the big change? Those funky Wandy home/away splits are gone. Ervin Santana’s only 25 and he’ll be on my short list for next year. Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler - Kinsler’s done for the season. Back date this to last month when I told you he was done.

Carlos Zambrano - Big Z got inflammation of the thingie he uses to throw a baseball. Not good, ya’ll. Maybe the 247,000 pitches the last couple of years weren’t the best idea. Just a guess.

Joey Votto - I chose to put Votto in my fantasy baseball keeper post yesterday and he rewarded us with a home run. You’re welcome.

Torii Hunter - HR yesterday. His season can be found next to yawnstipating in the Razzball glossary.

Ramon Ramirez - When Fogg left with a groin injury, he came on to pitch a perfect three innings. I like to think Dusty told him to do the exact opposite of what Fogg did and Ramirez is just a very good listener. Ramirez should get some starts down the stretch and could excel simply because hitters won’t be familiar with him, while possibly facing some B lineups.

Billy Wagner - Supposed to return next Tuesday. I see a blown save in the Mets’ future for next Wednesday.

Kevin Gregg - Said he should be ready to go next week at this time. I see blown saves (<–that’s plural, Razzballers!) in the Marlins’ future.

Travis Snider - 3-for-3 and HR yesterday. In yesterday’s comments, I said, “Shorthand, (Snider’s) a lot like Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. He strikes out a lot and he has power. He could also catch pitchers under prepared to get him out and he could have a solid three weeks. In other words, worth a flier, but he might go 0-for-next week. He’s very underdeveloped.” And that’s me quoting me!

Melvin Mora - He said, “It’s day by day” and he said he won’t return by this weekend. That sounds just like that other Orioles 3rd baseman of the 80s and 90s.

Jesse Litsch - Shutout with 3 Ks. The lack of Ks in that line is the problem with Litsch, but he used to be a bat boy. That shizz is heartwarming!

Dan Wheeler - Picked up the one out save. Zoinks! Percival’s back, what gives? Not entirely sure what Joe Maddon was thinking, but I believe it was because the Yankees rallied in the ninth so fast that Maddon didn’t want to rush his old, oft-injured closer into the game at the last second, so he opted for the better qualified one. Sorry I don’t know more, I was watching the RNC and our possible VPILF.