Now that I’m married Jimmy Carter’s line, “I’ve looked on a lot of women with lust. I’ve committed adultery in my heart many times.” Really stands out to me. I don’t necessarily want to think about Jimmy Carter in lust, or even contemplating lust. The thing he doesn’t say is if he wasn’t married, he’d be lusting too. Men are men, and Jimmy Carter is no different. Jimmy Carter is one tightly wound ball of lust, and probably hooked Clinton up with Lewinsky. Jimmy Carter is a pimp! If Jimmy Carter was president in the 2000′s, he probably would’ve had Outkast to the White House and would’ve been like, “What’s colder than our relations with the Middle East? Ice cold!” In that similar vein, I lust after rookie pitchers. They are so dang sexy prior to actually pitching in the major leagues. Jimmy Nelson is just another. I like him a lot, and glad to see Marco Estrada was replaced by him. From Nelson, could see a 9+ K/9 and a middling walk rate. Due to the walk rate, that has ballooned at times, he could be absolute death — like games of 5 IP, 6 ER death. He could also run over the NL with games of 6 IP, 8 Ks. I’d grab him in all leagues for the upside, but be wary of the downside. As Jimmy Carter also once said, “You can do what you have to do, and sometimes you can do it even better than you think you can. Speaking of can, that’s where I like to stick my peanuts. I said PEANUTS!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So, we had our first July 31st trading deadline deal, and it paid off for all the A’s fans who paid Oaktown’s own, Bubb Rubb, to break into Billy Beane’s office and turn his iCal forward a month. “Any ideas what you want to do for the 4th of July, Billy?” “I celebrated last month with some friends.” Screen spirals out and slam cuts to Bubb Rubb, maniacally (bubb)rubbing his hands together. When the A’s are playing like it’s playoff baseball in September, don’t say your mustachioed over-the-internet friend didn’t warn you. So, the trade that went down was Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for David Addison Leave Me Alone Maddie Russell, who I will get to after this lede. Samardzija and Hammel both gain value going to the A’s, which isn’t often the case with an NL pitcher going to The Land of Milk and Honey-Flavored DHs. Wrigley isn’t a great place to pitch — one day it’s overcast with winds blowing straight out, another day winds are just swirling overhead like a toilet bowl genie. As we’ve seen in the past, pitchers can do just about anything in a short period of time. Could Hammel and Samardzija completely poop the sheets? Fo’sho. Likely? Prolly not. O.co is like Petco and Metco, a big cavernous wasteland for hitters and they have more foul territory than Roseanne Barr’s privates. Samardzija brings strikeout stuff to hitters that aren’t as familiar with him and could be the 2nd half’s Kazmir. Yesterday, in his first A’s start, he had a line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks. Dividends paying out quick there. Hammel keeps the ball down and O.co will love him. This trade only really hurts Tommy Milone, who was shipped to the minors. The A’s just made themselves a serious contender and having a friend in Bubb Rubb pays off once again. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):Please, blog, may I have some more?
I swear that box score turning blue to alert people there’s something historic going on is the mother of all jinxes. Not to mention, all the people talking about the perfect game. Member when that was a jinx? Since we’re currently living in the Age of Opinion (which is not the Scorsese movie, though if it gets the green-light, Gary Oldman could play the lead), everyone talks about the perfect game while it’s going on. Whether it’s Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitbook, PinkedIn. In my day, we never mentioned a perfect game on Friendster! And on my General Gist band page on Myspace? Nary a whisper! Well, Jake Arrieta still pitched outstanding yesterday — 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 2.05 — even if the bid for a perfect game came up short. Like Altuve short. Like Kershaw looks at Arrieta’s perfect game bid and giggles. Still, this is about where Arrieta’s been and where he can go. What I said the other day still remains true — his swings and misses are going up, his control is getting better and he’s using his cutter more — a pitch he can dominant with. I’d still look at him in every league. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
It was a good night for a rally, but a bad night for a closer. Summer is officially here which means we can no longer use the “he’ll heat up as soon the weather warms up” excuse for our struggling stars. And just as the air at Coors makes the balls fly higher, the increased temperature and humidity also causes those baseballs to travel even farther. This time of year the advantage tends to shift from the pitchers to the hitters. It’s science, Mr. White! Fact. Just go ask a scientist. He’ll tell you summer is coming, Jon Snuh, no need to look so depressed all of the time. Perhaps this explains why last night, on Summer’s Eve, a number of closers collectively decided to destroy your ratios in an all out Closer Catastrophe. Let’s start with Zach Britton (0.2 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, BS (2)). I haven’t seen a Yankee beat a Britton like that since the Battle of Saratoga. Revolutionary war joke! (NERD!) With nine saves in the past month, it’s hard for Britton’s owners to complain here, so let’s move on. Old Reliable Glen Perkins (1.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB), was handed his third blown save but managed his third win, in expert vulture stylez. The crowning jewel of last night’s CloserTastrophe, Aroldis Chapman (0.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 BB, 4 ER) was handed the loss after a five run ninth inning capped off by a 3-run HR by Edwin Encarnacion. Say it ain’t so, Roldy! Is no one safe? With Craig Kimbrel (1.0 IP, 1 hit, 2 BB, 1 ER) notching his fourth blown save I should think not. Anthony Rendon hit a game-tying HR (11) off Craig, the first homer Kimbrel has surrendered all season. Are you getting scared yet? Was there a full moon last night or something? How about Greg Holland (1.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 BB, 2 ER) taking his second loss. This one was tied when he entered but stillz. By this time in the night when I saw Kenley Jansen (0.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 hits) enter the game with one run lead, I knew it could only end poorly. Escape while you can, Kenley! Fake a stomach cramp or something! He was handed his third blown save of the year. Sure, I’m ignoring all the closers who did manage to notch saves last night, but that’s not the point. It was a tough night to be a closer, but an even tougher night to own one in fantasy baseball. I feel your pain, all.
Here’s what else happened in fantasy baseball Friday night:Please, blog, may I have some more?
(Blows Whistle) Campers settle down now! My name is Ralph and I’ll be your Draftkings camp counselor for the summer. Now that you’ve returned here to beautiful camp Razzawanna, I’d like to give you some tips for safe and successful DraftKinging during your time here. First and foremost keep these two things in mind, first wear your sun screen. The sun is very strong here in Death Valley. You might ask why our camp’s founders Grey Albright and Rudy Gamble picked a location with such harsh weather. I can’t tell you, but I think they might be slightly sadistic. Hey, it could be worse; we could be down the road at the Scientology compound. They shock you with cattle prods when you’re bad, we just take your cash and re-invest it in gambling on daily fantasy sports. The second rule is don’t mess with Padres hitters…that’s pretty self-explanatory. Questions? No? Alrighty then, let’s move on.
With the NBA and NHL finals in the books and Football a few months away all focus is back on baseball. As it should be, what’s better than baseball? Boobs you say! Well, we got them! Billy Butler has not yet eaten his way out of the league and he’s got a solid pair (but with two homers he is getting close). The best way to get in on the daily madness that is baseball is to play DraftKings with us here at Razzball. Not only can you join in the Razzball leagues put together daily by yours truly, but if you join today you’ll get a ticket for a free entry into one of DK’s awesome contests. To join the debauchery click here. Don’t forget to check out the top-notch tools provided here on Razzball in the DFSbot, the Hitter-tron, and the Stream-o-nator.
I’m running two contests today on Draftkings a 10 teamer for the early games and a 20 team blood bath for the later set. Hop on the good foot and get into these contests early to avoid getting Lifshitzed like fellow Razzball writer J-Foh. The setup for today is a little different with three sets of contests running (early afternoon, late afternoon, and night games), so I’m going to give you a couple of targets for the early ones and a full roster for the late games.
Without further ado, here’s Razzball’s picks for June 21st in the year of our lord 2014.
Hitters cheat all the time. Some take PEDs, some cover themselves in pine tar like a pre-industrial shaming party. Sometimes they’ll guess fastball or slider or change. Sometimes they’ll guess outer half or middle-in. Some just cheat on their wives. The one guy who has kept all his cheating on the field is the most respected player since the late Tony Gwynn. Derek Jeter married himself to the New York Yankees and they don’t care how many women he has as long as it’s only one at a time in the press. It’s a good thing for the Yankees PR department he isn’t a switch hitter. It does, however, make A-Rod sad and jealous.Please, blog, may I have some more?
What up everyone, I’m here taking the hill for back to back DraftKings days. The coach called for the modern day Mike Marshall to come in and throw his crazy words around. I actually like Mike Marshall but I can see how he might rub people the wrong way. For more details about his work click here. Maybe we would have less Tommy John surgeries if people would listen to him. He can bring back the screwball! Sorry, I got off track there. Henderson Alvarez has been a friggin stud this year and Harry and the Hendersons was a stud of a movie in 1987. Ok, maybe not a stud but it was a lovable family flick I saw in the theater. I’ve been watching Oaktown Steve successfully stream Henderson Alvarez on the regular, always too weary to touch the man with two last names and no first name. On the season he sports a very healthy 2.56 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. A reasonable BABIP (.320) a solid xFIP (3.48) and a strand rate (76.1%) that isn’t spelling doom on the horizon. His K-rate (5.73) is not what we like for DK, but for today I like him facing the Swing and Miss Mets. Earlier in the year he pitched a complete game shutout against them where he K’d 7. At $7,300 you won’t find a better deal today.
As usual here is my promotion of the DraftKings. Your daily reminder to play with us and use the tools we give you to get an edge over all the other players in the DK universe. We have the Hitter-tron, the Stream-o-nator, and the DFS-Bot at your disposal plus a slew of writers to help you along. If you are playing an RCL right now then this isn’t that far off. The daily streamers and batty calls used in many of the highly competitive RCL leagues reminds me of the DFS style. The only difference is the clean slate you get every day. If you want to play with some of the other readers and writers here at Razzball then please leave your handle in the comments and we’ll get resident DK league organizer Ralph to add you to the list. My goal is a day when we can get 25 players going. Here is what else I like today.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I love when I tell you to pick up a player and he comes up days later. It makes me smile, and not one of those weird Japanese emoji smiles, but a full-faced grin. So, Andrew Heaney, you’re already okay in my book, even if that book is called, “Rookie Pitchers Will Fill You With Enthusiasm Until They Actually Pitch For Your Fantasy Team.” If you missed my Andrew Heaney fantasy with Friday’s Buy, where were you? Playing Patty Cake without your hands on the dance floor to Jason Derulo’s Wiggle song? Good story, brah. You should turn that into a novella. I’m giggling with excitement for Heaney like I’m Lisa Simpson, only instead of hehe I’m going HeHeaney. Pitching his home games in Crayola Canyon won’t hurt him, and the NL East is filled with a bunch of sad, sad hitting teams. Didja know the Marlins are the best NL East hitting team, and it’s not close? Fact! The Braves, Phillies, Nats and Mets could hold a two week round robin tournament and score less runs than goals scored in the World Cup. I went over the dangers of rookie pitchers in my Friday Buy, and what Heaney’s been doing this year in the minors. It’s all there. I will say now he should be owned in every league and is capable of winning the NL Rookie of the Year in only a little over a half a season. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Growing up one of my favorite films was Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. The movie has everything; boat chases; hot Austrian scholars turned Nazi’s, Sean Connery, Knights, the Holy Grail and one of the greatest scenes in movie history. If you haven’t seen it *spoiler alert*,(actually can you give a spoiler alert if a movie is 25 years old?) in one of the last scenes of the movie Indy has to go through a series of booby traps and make choices on how to conquer them based on his knowledge of Jesus. BT-dubs doesn’t booby traps seem like it could be Justin Verlander’s current issue? Maybe he’s trapped by the power of Kate Upton’s assets and spends most road trips locked in his hotel room getting to second base? Anyyyyy way where was I? Oh yeah the booby traps! After making his way through the obstacles Indy ends up in an old dusty room at the back of a cave guarded by one of a collection of Knights whose sole duty is to protect the Grail. In order for Indiana to get access to the Grail and save the day he must choose between bevies of gaudy cups and find the true Grail. At this moment the Knight urges him to choose wisely! If you haven’t seen it watch the clip here. Either way where I’m going with this is we are presented with a far less dramatic choice every day when playing daily fantasy games on DraftKings. There are several approaches and strategies and someone is lying if they tell you they approach each day’s games the same as the day before. Sometimes you’re better off investing in hitting, and other times you’re better off splashing the dollars on arms. No one approach holds true every day. For example for today’s early games the pitching options are limited to say the least and I couldn’t blame you for going cheap on pitching and spending on hitting. The night games are slightly better with Stephen Strasburg, Garrett Richards, and Shelby Miller all seeming like solid plays.
Speaking of choosing wisely, you can start your day of good choices off by playing DraftKings with us. In fact if you haven’t played DraftKings before you can play for free by signing up here. For all newbies and experienced players alike, I will post a link in the comments to play with me and some of the other Razzball writers in a league. Without further ado below are the Razzball picks for Saturday June 14th.Please, blog, may I have some more?