I’ll start an article about Wilin Rosario by talking about Ramon Hernandez just to spite you. Here’s the amount of games Ramon has played by season since 2007: 106, 133, 81, 97, 91. Unlike Benjamin Button, Ramon has actually gotten older over those 5 years and will be 36 in May. So we are putting an aging catcher who can’t stay healthy behind the plate in Colorado and slapping an ADP tag of 259 on it? BTW, that’s ahead of catchers like Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzinski, and Ryan Hanigan. Why do I bring up Ryan Hanigan you ask? Simple, he’s the guy that caught the other games for Cincy last year when Hurtnandez was out. He’s being slotted behind his rookie incumbent – Devin Mesoraco - in ADP despite having a similar output expectation to Ramon. None of this makes any FIP’in sense and its so mind-boggling I’ve almost completely forgotten who this post was supposed to be about.
First off, the negatives. Rosario strikes out alot and has a minimal walk-rate so he’s never going to win you a batting title. With that in mind, go look at his career ISO across all levels: those kind of power numbers make ISO horny! If J.P. Arencibia taught us anything last year, HRs are nice even when they come with a .220 average, which Wilin might saddle you with. However, J.P. is going at more than double the price at 179. We’re comparing apples to apples here – which I said while holding my tongue between my fingers – so hold out until you get what you want for half price. Right now, Rosario’s ADP is 450 at Mock Draft Central and 483 at Fleaflicker.
There’s another interesting thing you need to consider when pricing Wilin’s potential. Todd Helton is old; like ‘he’d be a great granduncle in the Appalachian Mountains’ old. Even if you think Ramon Hernandez is going to give you 130 games this year, who’s to say they will all be behind the plate? He played 30 games at 1st for the Reds in 2009. If Wilin gets you 400 ABs, something I feel he has a strong chance at getting, you’re getting 20 HRs from a player everyone felt was an afterthought going into the season. Seriously, those ADP rankings were made by a buncha apples if you ask me.
On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.
Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.
I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:
Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.
Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.
Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.
Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.
Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.
Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.
Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.
Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.
Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.
OBP Sleeper Values
Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.
Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.
Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.
Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.
Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.
Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.
Those that get hurt in OBP leagues
Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.
Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.
Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.
Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.
Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.
Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.
Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.
Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.
It feels like yesterday the baseball regular season started. You wrote “I heart baseball” in permanent marker on your arm, then you met a girl who wrote “I heart guys who heart baseball” on her arm, then, during sex in September, you screamed out “I love you, Marco Scutaro!” and now you don’t have baseball or a girlfriend. C’mon, calendar, make like a soldier and turn to March. The only cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand-fed Doritos. First up, Cool Ranch and our preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2011. It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2012. To paraphrase the one and only B-Real, “How do you know where you’re at, if you don’t know where you’ve been? Understand where I’m coming from?” It wouldn’t be fair for me to preseason rank the players then rank them again in the postseason based on my opinion, so these postseason top 20 lists are ranked according to ESPN’s Player Rater. It may not be wholly accurate, but it’s wholly unbiased. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Victor Martinez – ESPN’s overweighing average here. I don’t care, he’s not the number one catcher. He’s good, but the number one catcher only has 12 homers? C’mon. I mean, c’mon c’mon. Even c’mon c’mon c’mon. In the bigger picture, he was about as valuable as Jimmy Rollins and Beltran. Weird how four years ago that was probably true too. Not weird as in funny or interesting. Just weird. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 70/18/85/.300, Final Numbers: 76/12/103/.330/1
2. Mike Napoli – Eat your heart out, Mike Scioscia! It’s absolutely bonkers that a catcher is ranked this high and some people didn’t even want him on their team for at least two months of the season. He’s basically the reason why the Ron Popeil ‘Set It and Forget It’ catcher strategy was invented. The catcher field is so shallow that you don’t need to do much to be a top ranked catcher, i.e., a guy that doesn’t even play every day can be close to the top ranked catcher. I love you, Napoli, for as much as your stats as for how smart you make me look. Now introduce me to your Moms! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.255/5, Final Numbers: 72/30/75/.320/4
3. Alex Avila – First (and really only) out of nowhere guy to place in the top of the catcher rankings. AA, you are no longer anonymous. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 63/19/82/.295/3
4. Miguel Montero – Never hit more than 4 homers in a month and only had one month over a .300 average. 3 ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 fantasy baseball catchers! Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections: 55/15/70/.275, Final Numbers: 65/18/86/.282/1
5. Yadier Molina – He could be next to the definition for yawnstipating in the dictionary, but yawnstipating isn’t a word you find in a dictionary. Yet. Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: 40/7/55/.270/7, Final Numbers: 55/14/65/.305/4
6. Carlos Santana – Pretty weird season from the Supernatural. If you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me he’d have 27 homers this year, I’d say why are you time traveling with that info? Can’t you tell me something could actually make me money? I’d also say Carlos must have a .300 average and be the best catcher. His K-rate went up, walk rate went down, ground ball rate went up, fly ball rate went down, line drive rate went down… Honestly (as if I’d lie to you), you’re pretty lucky you got the homers and counting stats from Santana. This could’ve been a disaster season. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 55/15/65/.280, Final Numbers: 84/27/79/.239/5
7. Brian McCann – Every year I will continue to rank him number one. Whether he wants to actually listen to me is between us. I ask that you respect our privacy. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 80/25/95/.280/3, Final Numbers: 51/24/71/.270/3
8. Matt Wieters – Had a nice bounce back season, or he had a good August and September that is totally clouding my judgment. I think it’s more the former than the latter, assuming I’m not confusing what former and latter means. I could see ranking him as high as number two for catchers next year. I probably won’t because that sounds insane to me as I write it and that’s how much forethought I had on the matter. Maybe I think about it a little bit. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 60/18/85/.280, Final Numbers: 72/22/68/.262/1
9. Russell Martin – I put him in the preseason tier of upside guys because of his tremendous potential. I mean, he only had four straight years of declining homers, RBIs, runs and average. Oh, wait, he was an upside pick because he went to the Yankees. Yeah, made sense then and now. Thank you, genius brain inside my head. Genius Brain Inside My Head, “You’re welcome. Or is it ‘your?’” Preseason Rank #16, 2011 Projections: 70/10/60/.270/10, Final Numbers: 57/18/65/.237/8
10. Wilson Ramos – His walk rate and ISO went up and he’s only 24 years old. I could see him getting a sleeper post in the offseason then hitting 15 homers and a .270 average next year and being valuable in 2012 but still not that interesting. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 48/15/52/.267
11. J.P. Arencibia – This is about where the fun ends for catchers, and really was it that much fun prior to this? Arencibia hit 23 homers and had 78 RBIs, yet as late as mid-September he was only owned in 50% of ESPN leagues. Either a lot of people play in 8 team leagues or a lot of people overvalue average. Next time I’m in a place with a bunch of fantasy baseball nerds, I’ll ask that question. Speaking of which, we should have a Razzball field trip to Vegas this year. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 40/15/55/.240, Final Numbers: 47/23/78/.219/1
12. Miguel Olivo – His Hacky McHackstein ways seem to have translated across the whole catcher pool, i.e., most of this top 20 have batting average issues. Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: 45/15/55/.235/7, Final Numbers: 54/19/62/.224/6
13. Chris Iannetta – Let’s give you an idea of how bad/shallow/synonym the catchers are. Iannetta is ranked here and he was replaced by his own team for a few weeks in September. When can I start recapping the 1st basemen? Oh, in my next post. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 40/15/60/.245, Final Numbers: 51/14/55/.238/6
14. A.J. Pierzynski – I hate A.J. from a fantasy standpoint. It doesn’t look like I’m alone either since he’s the 14th best catcher and was owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues just about the whole year. I think he’s the poster child for all that’s wrong with the ESPN Player Rater. How does a guy who hits 8 homers and 40-ish runs and 50-ish RBIs rank this high? Cause of the decent average? I don’t buy it. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 50/12/55/.275, Final Numbers: 38/8/48/.287
15. Jonathan Lucroy – The Brewers backstop had a solid season for him and when you look at his numbers you realize why he wasn’t ranked by me in the preseason. Lucroy, you are Matt Wieters’s po’ boy. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 45/12/59/.265/2
16. Carlos Ruiz – Snooze. Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: 35/10/55/.265, Final Numbers: 49/6/40/.283/1
17. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – In the preseason, I said, “He’s not quite old; he’ll be only 26 years old in 2011. In the last round of draft, you got better things to do than to draft an upside catcher in a hitters’ park and lineup? Yeah, I didn’t think so.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections: 55/16/70/.255/5, Final Numbers: 52/16/56/.235/1
18. Ramon Hernandez – If you put Hernandez and Hanigan together, you get a Latino-Irishman — a Leprecano — that has very little fantasy value. Please let Mesoraco catch in 2012. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 28/12/36/.282
19. Kurt Suzuki – In the preseason, I said, “I stared at the screen for three minutes trying to think of something positive to say about Suzuki. What you ended up with was me confessing to you that I had nothing positive to say about him. That about sums it up.” And that’s me still having nothing to say positive about Suzuki! Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections: 60/14/70/.260/3, Final Numbers: 54/14/44/.237/2
20. Geovany Soto – I haven’t given up on Soto yet. Sure, this year was miserable. And last year was miserable. And… Was he ever good? I think he was. Never the hoo! Soto and I have high apple pie in the sky hopes, and you can’t take that away from us. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 60/18/75/.270, Final Numbers: 46/17/54/.228
Went over the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball and top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball. Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball. The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep. Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada! Snooze. I love Kurt Suzuki this year! Yawn. I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues. Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Chris Snyder? Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli. In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them. You can see other top 20 lists for 2011 fantasy baseball under 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Listed along with these catchers are my 2011 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball:
1. Brian McCann – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Posey. This tier is called, “I’ll draft any of these guys if they’re still on the board four to six rounds after their Average Draft Position.” I ended up putting McCann above Mauer in these rankings for a simple reason. I want 20+ home runs way more than I want a .320+ average. If McCann gets his stupid eyes figured out and hits like he should for a 27-year-old, this will be his season. I know Posey is way more exciting than McCann, but unless you’re dating Posey’s sister, exciting isn’t going to get you laid in fantasy baseball. 2011 Projections: 80/25/95/.280/3
2. Joe Mauer – It’s amazing to me how fickle fantasy baseball ‘perts are. Read recently a ‘pert talking about how Mauer will never hit 20 home runs again. These are, of course, the same people that swore his 28 homers in 2009 was the real deal. Can’t anyone separate what someone did the previous year compared to what they will do. I don’t think he will hit 28 home runs either, but I didn’t think he’d do it 2010 and thought it was fluky as shizz in 2009 when he actually did it. Search the site if you’re new to Razzball. It’s all there. Mauer is a 14-17 home run hitter with a great average. If he gets lucky, he hits 20 homers. If he’s unlucky, he hits 9 homers like last year. It’s not brain surgery. And it is a’ight, but I won’t own him because of where he’s drafted. 2011 Projections: 90/15/90/.325/3
3. Victor Martinez – I already went over my Victor Martinez fantasy when I took a scalpel to his Tigers signing. If you click that link, it’ll transport you to a whole new post. It’s magic! 2011 Projections: 70/18/85/.300
4. Buster Posey – I suppose he could be the best catcher for 2011, but what about Mike Napoli? I mean, Mike Napoli’s mom is showing you nips and you still got no love for him? You don’t like MILF nips? You a prude? Are you one of our three girl readers? If so, then maybe I should stop now before we end up with no girl readers. I don’t dislike Posey. All I’m saying is Wieters looked like a surefire bet going into 2010 too. For where you have to draft Posey, I’m not going near him. 2011 Projections: 75/18/80/.310
5. Mike Napoli – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Posada. I call this tier, “I’ll try to grab a catcher from this tier and if it doesn’t happen then c’est la vie.” Honestly, you probably don’t have to draft Napoli because whoever drafts him will probably drop him by mid-April. No one wants to own Napoli. You’re all a bunch of Sciosciapaths! He hits 20+ home runs and steals a few bases. That’s all you need from a catcher. Stop trying to turn your catcher slot to eleven. Oh, and his move to the Rangers ups his power a bit, but he’s not suddenly going to hit for .300. 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.255/5
6. Matt Wieters – Now that Wieters’ draft position has come down to earth, I don’t mind him at all. Could easily be the top catcher for fantasy in 2011. That ain’t idle chatter. He’s just needs to emerge from his nasty sophomore slump and do what he’s capable of. He was unlucky last year and his walk rate went up while his K-rate went down. They’re all good signs. Here’s to him getting back on the map. (And because no Oriole mention is complete without a Wire mention, I was pulled over the other day for talking on my phone while driving. I know, Oprah would’ve been so disappointed. I’m also the jackhole who usually yells at other drivers, “Hands free!” but I just got a phone call at the wrong time. Anyway, the cop walks up to my window and I read his name tag and immediately yelled out his name, “McNulty!” He’s like, “Do I know you?” “No, but I watch The Wire.” He sighs like he’s heard it a thousand times before and gives me a ticket. Woo-hoo, I got a ticket from McNulty!) 2011 Projections: 60/18/85/.280
7. Geovany Soto – In 105 games last year, he hit 17 home runs. Yes, he too can be the number one catcher in 2011 fantasy baseball. Now that Piniella and his infatuation with Koyie Ugly is out of town, Soto should see all the ABs he can handle. Tough break for The Koyie Hill Fan Club, which affectionately calls itself The Koy Pond. 2011 Projections: 60/18/75/.270
8. Miguel Montero – Unlike Napoli, Wieters or Soto, Montero doesn’t have the big power upside. With my projected 15 home runs I’ve given him, I’m probably just about touching his ceiling. He’ll probably get tiresome at some point in the season making you want to drop him for a hot-as-of-right-now waiver wire catcher. If you do Ron Popeil him, he should be able to give you a solid, if unremarkable catcher season. 2011 Projections: 55/15/70/.275
9. Jorge Posada – After about ten years of ignoring Posada, I think his value has finally caught up with his draft position. I’d like to say his BABIP was low last year, but his skills are declining. He might not hit over .260 again without some luck. Also, like a preacher, he has Jesus breathing down his neck. Still, the ballpark, the lineup around him and the fact he’ll see DH ABs, makes him attractive. 2011 Projections: 50/17/70/.255
10. Carlos Santana – This is a new tier. This tier is just Carlos Santana. This tier I call, “I’m not owning Carlos Santana unless he falls very far in my drafts.” Bill James has Carlos Santana down for 22 homers. Bill James is smoking crack cocaine. Carlos Santana might be great in 2011, but I need the ulcer to see if he’s healthy? I have enough stress in my life. I’m letting Carlos Santana prove his mettle on someone else’s team. What, I’m gonna miss out on a 15-homer, .280 season from a catcher? Big whoop, friend. Big effin’ whoop. 2011 Projections: 55/15/65/.280
11. Kurt Suzuki – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Carlos Ruiz. I call this tier, “I’m only listing them so you know I don’t want them on any teams.” I stared at the screen for three minutes trying to think of something positive to say about Suzuki. What you ended up with was me confessing to you that I had nothing positive to say about him. That about sums it up. 2011 Projections: 60/14/70/.260/3
12. Yadier Molina – Oh. My. God. Get me the hell out of this tier. For reals. 2011 Projections: 40/7/55/.270/7
13. A.J. Pierzynski – Not only is he a terrible pick but his last name is impossible for me to spell. Just let Tyler Flowers flourish or flounder, for suck fake. (Say that fast 117 times.) 2011 Projections: 50/12/55/.275
14. Carlos Ruiz – Carlos Ruiz makes Kurt Suzuki seem like an upside pick. 2011 Projections: 35/10/55/.265
15. Chris Iannetta – This is a new tier. This tier goes until the end of the post. I call this tier, “It’s late in the game and I’m taking some upside.” You might look at the tier names and think to yourself, why doesn’t he just move Iannetta above Suzuki if he’s ignoring Kurt? I guess I could, but I’m not taking Iannetta or any of these late names until the guys above them are already drafted. So by listing Iannetta here you know who has to come off the board before you draft one of these late round fliers. If you were to draft Iannetta before, say, Ruiz is off the board, I wouldn’t be mad at you, but you might be reaching. As for Iannetta, “Meh, at least he’s got some upside.” 2011 Projections: 40/15/60/.245
16. Russell Martin – I don’t like Martin then he went to the Yankees and I was slightly more interested. Put a big flashing sign on “slightly” to emphasize it. In the absolute last round of a draft, I’d consider him. There, I said it. Are you happy you’ve embarrassed me? 2011 Projections: 70/10/60/.270/10
17. J.P. Arencibia – First, let’s see what I said when he was first called up, “In Triple-A, Arencibia hit 32 homers in 412 ABs. That’s-a one spicy prospect! To go all Latin America on you, there’s a caveat. That was in the PCL, which is like playing on the moon with an aluminum bat. He’s not quite the prospect of Wieters, Posey or Carlos Santana, pre-Kalish yelling at him, ‘Eat everything off your plate!’” And that’s me quoting me! Arencibia might not be a huge impact guy in 2011, but he can be. At catcher, I like to gamble. 2011 Projections: 40/15/55/.240
18. Ryan Doumit – He never stays healthy but in some ways that doesn’t matter for a catcher. Since everyone only owns one of them, there’s plenty of catchers on waivers for Doumit’s thrice-annual trip to the DL. 2011 Projections: 35/15/55/.250
19. John Jaso – I look at Jaso’s number and I see a poor man’s Russell Martin. That’s not a compliment. But Jaso is a bit more of an unknown so maybe there’s some more upside there. That’s barely a compliment. 2011 Projections: 60/6/45/.270/6
20. Miguel Olivo – It’s kinda sad when the upside tier has Doumit, Olivo and Russell Martin. Catchers suck. 2011 Projections: 45/15/55/.235/7
After the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s plenty of names, but here’s three I want to point out:
Jesus Montero – If he gets an everyday job out of Spring Training, which I don’t think he will, he’ll shoot up this rankings list. I’d move him up to 9th overall. If he does get the everyday job, his price tag will probably be too steep for my blood though. I also went over my Jesus Montero fantasy already. Click that thing-a-ma-boob. By all means, grab him in keepers if your bench is deep enough, but with the Martin addition, I don’t think we see Montero until late summer at the earliest (barring an injury). 2011 Projections: 20/5/30/.290 in 100 at-bats
John Buck – I usually like to end these top 20 posts with some exciting names, but we’re talking about catchers when I highlight John Buck. He’s usually forgotten on draft day and he’s good for teen power. Should you draft him at any point before the final round? Buck that! 2011 Projections: 40/15/55/.245
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – There was a point in the not that distance past that Jarrod Saltymochachino was a touted prospect. “Shizz happens, write him off, let’s move on, Grey.” That’s you talking. “He’s not quite old; he’ll be only 26 years old in 2011. In the last round of draft, you got better things to do than to draft an upside catcher in a hitters’ park and lineup? Yeah, I didn’t think so.” That’s me talking. 2011 Projections: 55/16/70/.255/5 <– optimistic but whatevs
It feels like yesterday the baseball regular season started. You wrote “I heart baseball” in permanent marker on your arm, then you met a girl who wrote “I heart guys who heart baseball” on her arm, then, during sex in September, you screamed out “I love you, Tulo!” and now you don’t have baseball or your girlfriend. C’mon, calender, make like a soldier and turn to March. The only cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand-fed Doritos. First up, Cool Ranch and our preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2010. It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2011. To paraphrase the one and only B-Real, “How do you know where you’re at, if you don’t know where you’ve been? Understand where I’m coming from?” It wouldn’t be fair for me to preseason rank the players then rank them again in the postseason based on my opinion, so these postseason top 20 lists are ranked according to ESPN’s Player Rater. It may not be wholly accurate, but it’s wholly unbiased. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Joe Mauer – I predicted the homers would come down. Literally. Only I didn’t think they’d fall as far as they did. It was the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome factor that I just couldn’t fully know back in January. Mauer ended up number one and I’d contend he was still overrated and will be so again next March. Certain guys just get a pass from the fantasy community because they seem likable or have can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness. Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections: 100/20/85/.330/3, Final Numbers: 88/9/75/.327/1
2. Victor Martinez – V-Mart’s age still hasn’t caught up with him (sorta pun!), but I think, in retrospect, we’re going to look back at this season as the beginning of the end for him. Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections: 85/25/110/.300, Final Numbers: 64/20/79/.302/1
3. Buster Posey – I ranked him 16th in the preseason and here he is 3rd. The scary thing is, besides the average, I was pretty right on with his projections. That means it was another yawnstipating year from catchers. Preseason Rank #16, 2010 Projections: 55/14/65/.290/3, Final Numbers: 58/18/67/.305
4. Brian McCann – I love McCann, there I said it. He gives you what I want from a catcher. Good homers, decent RBIs and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere. Much prefer that to Mauer’s MI-type catcher output. Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections: 80/28/105/.295/3, Final Numbers: 63/21/77/.269/5
5. John Buck – This was the most bang from your Buck since Midnight Cowboy. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 53/20/66/.281
6. Mike Napoli – I Ron Popeil’d him in a few leagues and I’m glad I did. Even it wasn’t for the Sciosciapath, he probably would’ve hit 30+ homers. Sure, the average wasn’t great, but, as I’ve said many times, since there’s fewer ABs from catchers, you’re fine with a guy like Napoli. Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections: 60/19/70/.260/5, Final Numbers: 60/26/68/.238/4
7. Miguel Olivo – Well, I ranked Iannetta around here in the preseason and I told you to grab Olivo in April so I wasn’t completely Mr. Bungle on Olivo, but, considering his post-All-Star break numbers were egregious, I’d say his high ranking here is more about the state of catchers. They’re really bad, ya’ll. Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections: 30/16/45/.245, Final Numbers: 55/14/58/.269/7
8. Geovany Soto – Member when I told everyone to draft him? Good times. Or, more appropriately, okay times. For a catcher, not bad times. Here’s what I said at the Geovany Soto sleeper post last January, “Soto’s 2009 was off the charts unlucky. His BABIP went from .337 in 2008 to .251 last year. I.e. His average should come up to .270 levels. His power was zapped because of a shoulder injury. When he started to get healthy in June, he hit 6 homers that month. Then an oblique injury sidelined him. Bad luck followed by terrible luck.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections: 65/18/80/.280, Final Numbers: 47/17/53/.280
9. Carlos Ruiz – Honestly, if you jumped out of DeLorean and told me in the preseason Ruiz would be ranked this high and told me his final stats, I still wouldn’t have drafted him. 8 homers and no steals? Who are you, Willy Aybar? Ruiz was unranked, but he made the preseason catchers to target post. Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections: 45/14/65/.260/3, Final Numbers: 43/8/53/.302
10. Jorge Posada – About two years ago, I jumped off the “Ever drafting Posada again” bandwagon and I’m never going back. Too old, too tired, too effin’ blind. Okay, maybe not the last one. Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections: 50/17/75/.280, Final Numbers: 49/18/57/.248/3
11. A.J. Pierzynski – Looking back on these catchers makes me feel like Creighton on a New Orleans ferry. A.J. was in the don’t draft tier along with Yadier and Suzuki and, looking back, I wouldn’t change a thing. Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections: 55/12/65/.280, Final Numbers: 43/9/56/.270/3
12. Kurt Suzuki – I’d go as far to say Suzuki was actually better than A.J. because he was injured and you were getting stats from someone else while Suzuki was hurt, or, if you were really lucky, you just dropped him. Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 65/12/65/.270/6, Final Numbers: 55/13/71/.242/3
13. Yadier Molina – His numbers are even more yawnstipating than Crapolanco. Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections: 40/7/55/.285/5, Final Numbers: 34/6/62/.262/8
14. Ramon Hernandez – Do you see a theme here? Catchers were so bad, a guy who didn’t even play in 100 games or crack 10 homers is ranked this high. If you take nothing else away from this post, please punt catchers next year. Please. Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections: 55/17/65/.265, Final Numbers: 30/7/48/.297
15. John Jaso – I’ve been looking at Jaso as a potential sleeper for next year, but I just don’t think his power or speed upside is great enough. He might be “The Old Russell Martin (Or Maybe That’s A Young Russell Martin)” at best. You know, the Martin that actually had value. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 57/5/44/.263/4
16. Yorvit Torrealba – If you owned Torrealba for longer than two months, you didn’t win your league. There’s just no way. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 31/7/37/.271/7
17. Ryan Doumit – Chew on this: If Yuniesky Betancourt were a catcher, he’d be ranked in the top ten. Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections: 50/16/60/.280/3, Final Numbers: 42/13/45/.251/1
18. Rod Barajas – Ladies and gentlemen, I bring to you your 2010 fantasy baseball catchers. They are the new blech. 2010 Projections: Please/Don’t/Draft/Him, Final Numbers: Do/You/Really/Care?
19. Miguel Montero – I’d say Wieters was the much, much bigger bust than Montero simply because Montero was injured for an extended stretch so you had a chance to get someone else’s numbers from him. But, don’t get me wrong, Montero was a rather supersized disappointment too. Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections: 65/17/80/.280, Final Numbers: 36/9/43/.266
20. Matt Wieters – Finally, the Billy Butler-sized bust. As I practice my Saberhagenmetrics, Wieters will be on quite a few teams of mine next year. Sucks if you got caught in the crossfire of his down year, but one bad season at 24-years-old doesn’t take his future shine off. The Orioles could surprise next year. Yeah, I said it! And kinda mean it. Though they’ll still only land in third or fourth place. Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 70/18/85/.305, Final Numbers: 37/11/55/.249
