The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder. (BTW, I love the word murmurs. I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs. Wouldn’t that have been awesome?! Okay, maybe me.) Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites. And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN. I moved Bell down one whole spot. I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July. He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July. If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him? Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year. Then who knows where he goes. Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages. Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else. You get the picture; it’s still early. Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything. Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch) 2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard) 3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain) 4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.
5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz) 6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson) 7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow) 8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa) 9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry) 10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero) 11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo) 12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton) 13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt) 14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler) 15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito) 16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen) 17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler) 18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan) 19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan) 20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer) 21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray) 22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson) 23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
Brain Freeze
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez) 25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz) 26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen) 27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry) 28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez) 29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino) 30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)
Kansas City Royals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (11) | 2008 (24) | 2007 (11) | 2006 (23) | 2005 (28) | 2004 (19)
Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [64 – 80] Pacific Coast League
AA: [73 – 67] Texas League
A+: [84 – 55] Carolina League
A: [64 – 75] Midwest League
R: [43 – 31] Pioneer League
R: [20 – 35] Arizona Rookie League
R: [24 – 44] Appalachian League
The Run Down
Dayton Moore gets ripped more than the current administration does for health care. The Yuniesky Betancourt trade, the Mike Jacobs trade and several signings are worthy of scorn. Well, here is some news for people, amidst all these major league signings and trades, Moore has corralled a tremendous amount of “high upside” prospects. Truly. Some experts have the 2010 Royals farm system ranked ninth overall (Keith Law) and Baseball America has yet to weigh in for the 2010 season (their book comes out in late February). Much of this talent though is at the lower levels and still needs to be developed. There are several prospects that I am not mentioning because they either just finished the 2009 season at rookie ball (John Lamb, Tyler Sample, and Tim Melville) or that they didn’t get a chance to play due to when they signed (Aaron Crow (yes, the 2008 #1 draft pick of Washington whom they failed to sign) and Noel Arguelles, a left-handed Cuban defect who has great upside as a pitcher). 2010 will be a make or break year for a couple of top prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer), more the latter than the former. Finally, Kansas City has some reason to be excited.
Graduating Prospects
#23 – (OF) Mitch Maier
Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – (RHP) Aaron Hartsock, (LHP) Brandon Sisk, (LHP) Ben Swaggerty, #10 (RHP) Blake Wood
Hitters – (2B/SS) Jeff Bianchi, #1 (3B) Moustakas, #15 (CF) David Lough
Players of Interest for 2010 Hitters #9 Kila Ka’aihue | 1B | AAA | 25 | .252/.392/.433 | 441 AB | 45 XBH | 17 HR | .181 ISO | 85:102 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Kila Ka’aihue jacked the ball everywhere in 2008 with 27 homers at Double-A and 11 homers at Triple-A. 2009 wasn’t quite as friendly (17 homers), nor was his production anywhere near his 2008 “breakout season.” There has been speculation around his frustration with management’s decision to trade for Mike Jacobs and not let him tryout in Spring Training. A change of scenery may actually be a good thing for his future. Here is his Scouting the Unknown article I wrote about him last July. This link also has a pronunciation key. For those of you too lazy to click the link: pronounced – KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a. Grey went over Ka’aihue’s fantasy prospects in the 2009 preseason.
Hindered by a lower than normal BABIP (.277), Ka’aihue slumped through the second half of the season. His batting eye is beyond stellar (two straight years with more than 100 walks) and considering that minor league players usually play a month less than their major league counterparts, having 100 walks is pretty darn impressive. Additionally, in 555 Triple-A at-bats (across two years), he’s hit for a .211 ISO. The power is legit. If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH. Instead, Mr. Moobs will play first, with Mr. Slacker (Jose Guillen) DH’ing. Don’t be surprised to see Ka’aihue traded sooner rather than later. If Jose Guillen decides to get hurt, Ka’aihue should be the first man called up.
#15 David Lough | CF | A+/AA | 23 | .325/.370/.496 | 458 AB | 46 XBH | 14 HR | .171 ISO | 64:24 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .367 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 34..3 FB%
This is a fringe prospect with the possibility of slightly overachieving. Not amazing at any one skill, Lough plays solid defense with a marginal arm, above average base running and stealing skills that are consistently improving. He doesn’t have a great feel of the strike zone and consequently is dependent upon a high average of any sort of success. With such a high BABIP (.367), this could hamper any sort of development at the higher levels. Since he wasn’t solely a baseball player at college, his age isn’t the normal indicator of minor league level in regards to his actual ability. 2010 will be the true test. His upside is 15 to 18 homers with 15 to 20 steals. A mid-summer call-up in 2011 is likely his ETA.
Pitchers #8 Carlos Rosa | RHP | AAA | 24 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 71 IP | 4.56 ERA | 3.80 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | 8.7 H/9 | .356 BABIP | 49.2 GB% | 15.6 LD% | 30.2 FB%
With career rates of 50.4 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 31.8 FB% | 7.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9, Rosa looks poised to be a member of the bullpen in the upcoming season. (He threw 10 1/3 MLB innings in September 2009.) With a fastball that is clocked between 90 and 96 mph, a slightly above-average slider and a good changeup, Rosa could become a solid setup man for Soria or even eventually become the closer (in a couple of years). For all you middle reliever believers (Mr. B’s), keep your eyes keenly on Rosa’s spring training efforts, especially if you’re seeking holds.
Honorable Mentions
In these two subsections, you will find the Royals top two hitting prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer) and their top pitching prospect (Montgomery). This is because they are all still so young and low in the minor league ladder.
Hitters #1 Mike Moustakas | 3B | A+ | 20 | .250/.297/.421 | 492 AB | 50 XBH | 16 HR | .171 ISO | 90:32 K:BB | 10/6 SB/CS | .280 BABIP | 42.3 GB% | 13 LD% | 44.4 FB%
After arriving with 22 homers in his first year, his sophomore slump came. Sickels, of Minor League Ball, points out his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473), noting that the Royals High-A home field is difficult to play in if you’re a hitter. Another concern a few scouts have noted is how his body is transforming into a doppelganger of Butler. The added weight hasn’t deterred the Royals yet. From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, it would be reassuring to see a higher line drive rate. This would show that he is making more consistent hard contact. I am still on his bandwagon, but he needs to continue to move forward.
#2 Eric Hosmer | 1B | A/A+ | 19 | .241/.334/.361 | 337 AB | 29 XBH | 6 HR | .120 ISO | 90:53 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 62.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 24.8 FB%
Hosmer struggled hardcore at High-A. Receiving Lasik surgery this past year, Hosmer, like other baseball players, claimed he wasn’t seeing the ball well and is hoping this surgery will improve his problem. Extremely talented and skilled, Hosmer was drafted straight out of high school with the third overall pick as scouts were drooling over his polished swing and poised hitting approach, not to mention a potential power hitting lefty. Playing in the pitching heavy Midwest League (Single-A) for most of the year, Hosmer held his own, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was more fluke than the norm.
#11 Johnny Giavotella | 2B | A+ | 21 | .258/.351/.380 | 476 AB | 38 XBH | 6 HR | .122 ISO | 54:66 K:BB | 26/9 SB/CS | .286 BABIP | 47.2 GB% | 17.4 LD% | 35 FB%
Nothing spectacular here, just a solid second baseman. And not solid like, “Oh, I really, really want him to anchor my infield (fantasy wise).” Solid like Luis Castillo. Someone who can work the count, steal bases well and doesn’t slack off. Giavotella has never been regarded as an extremely powerful hitter, but he could develop like Castillo and give the fantasy player 25 steals. He has a career slash line of .273/.352/.395 in 754 at-bats with 91:88 K:BB ratio.
Pitchers #4 Mike Montgomery | LHP | A/A+ | 19 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 110 IP | 2.21 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.06 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .260 BABIP | 49.7 GB% | 12.3 LD% | 31 FB%
His walk rate was 3.7 BB/9 at Single-A and was only 2.1 BB/9 at High-A, and this was only some of his improvements. Pitching 58 innings at Single-A and 52 innings at High-A, Montgomery’s stock shot up the board. His curveball is considered his best pitch, but scouts still think his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement. He also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is already on the fast track, don’t be surprised if Montgomery receives a September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.
As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.
#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.
Blaine Hardy | LHP | A | 22 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 92 1/3 IP | 2.05 ERA | 2.50 FIP | .95 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .285 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 11.9 LD% | 44.1 FB%
I’m a sucker for good strikeout rates and above-average control. Hardy is a fringe prospect at best. With a 87 to 89 mph fastball and marginal curve and a power slider (80 mph), he’ll need to repeat these numbers again for any serious consideration. Could become a solid reliever or fifth starter.
Since our last check up no games have been played, but there was movement on the closer rankings. Was it February Grey getting bored and mixing things up? Probably, but let’s pretend there’s some logic in my reasoning. Next to the closers that moved, there’s a plus or minus. Also, Dotel and Valverde weren’t closers a month ago, so they’ve been added. I gave you some deets on Dotel. I went over Valverde in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball. There’s also projections for the top 20 closers. One other thing, someone in the comments yesterday mentioned how Capps and Dotel were not mock drafted at all. Sure, mock drafts are wonky. But I do see this in actual leagues. All closers should be owned. If I get to the last three rounds of a draft, I’ll take three more closers on top of the three I already own. Closers’ value skyrockets once the season starts. In a ‘pert league on May 1st of last year, I traded Heath Bell and Huston Street for Dan Haren and David Aardsma. You know when I drafted Bell and Street? Yeah, end rounds. Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch) 2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard) 3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain) 4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.
5. Heath Bell (+1) (Luke Gregerson) 6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow) 7. Francisco Rodriguez (+1)(Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz) 8. Joakim Soria (-3) (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa) 9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero) 10. Jose Valverde (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry) 11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo) 12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton) 13. Huston Street (-1) (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt) 14. Rafael Soriano (+1) (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler) 15. Billy Wagner (+1) (Takashi Saito) 16. Brian Fuentes (+1) (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen) 17. Andrew Bailey (-8) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler) 18. Ryan Franklin (-4) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan) 19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan) 20. Leo Nunez (-2) (Dan Meyer) 21. Frank Francisco (-1) (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray) 22. Mike Gonzalez (-3) (Jim Johnson) 23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (LaTroy Hawkins)
Brain Freeze
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
24. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz) 25. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen) 26. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry) 27. Brad Lidge (-1) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez) 28. Kerry Wood (-1) (Chris Perez) 29. Brandon Lyon (-1) (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino, Jeff Soydoubleshotchino) 30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jeremy Accardo, J. Scovin Frasoggs the Third)
Our first look at closers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, including some recent movees. I already went over Billy Wagner to the Braves, Lindstrom to the Astros, Rafael Soriano to the Rays and Capps to the Nats. Since then, Mike Gonzalez is a movee to Baltimore. Bobby Cox was unable to get fully behind a lefty cl0ser, but that doesn’t mean Mike Gonzalez can’t find success with the Orioles. The only major negative with Mike Gonzalez is I have to write out Mike Gonzalez’s entire name every time I mention Mike Gonzalez because it doesn’t sound right any other way. It’s still real early in the preseason for closers. Sometimes these battles aren’t decided until the last week of spring training (you still have time, Astros!). So this is a like a Google Map of closers that might lead you down a road closed for construction. Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch) 2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard) 3.Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain) 4.Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)
Donkey-corns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.
5. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa) 6. Heath Bell (Luke Gregerson) 7. Carlos Marmol (Angel Guzman, John Grabow) 8. Francisco Rodriguez (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz) 9. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler) 10. David Aardsma (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero) 11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt) 12. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt) 13.Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton) 14. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan) 15. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler) 16. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito) 17. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen) 18. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer) 19. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson) 20. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray) 21. Joel Zumaya (Ryan Perry) 22. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
Brain Freeze
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
23. Bobby Jenks (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz) 24. Matt Capps (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen) 25. Chad Qualls (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry) 26. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez) 27. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez) 28. Jason Frasor (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo) 29. Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom (Winner of Radio Phone-In Contest) 30. Joel Hanrahan (Runner-Up To Astros’ Phone-In Contest Winner)
