Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew - I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay - I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado - Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez - Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora - Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez - Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier - Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit - You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta - See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu - I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady - Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa - You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis - I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin - Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff - Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth - You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton - To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia - Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick - Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

We’ve looked at top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008 and we’ve seen one recurring theme. Offense was waaay down in 2008 (That’s right, “way” with three A’s!). With the top 20 outfielders for 2008, the theme continues. You get a full-frontal shot of the outfielders’ offensive problems in 2008 when you look at Matt Kemp’s 2008 predictions and final stats. His preseason predictions were 95/20/75/.290/20 and he came in with 93/18/76/.290/35. His steals were a bit higher (another recurring theme), but I’m like Ms. mothereffin’ Cleo with these predictions. Seriously, bow down, non-mustachioed wo/man. Kemp gave you almost exactly what I predicted he would and I ranked him 36th, but he came in 10th. That doesn’t mean I’m a savant with predictions and an idiot with rankings. No, it means offense was waaaay down (Four A’s!). I was pretty close with my predictions for Manny too and he moved from 21st to 2nd.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Matt Holliday - 25 home runs in Coors? Zoinks! What happens if he’s traded? Does he hit 15 home runs and steal 35? Victorino called, he wants his stats back. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/125/.310/7, Final Numbers:  107/25/88/.321/28

2. Manny Ramirez - It’s just like Manny to leave a hitter’s park for a pitcher’s park and see his value skyrocket. The touring company of Rainman should consider casting Manny, he’s a natural. Imagine trying to read him for cheating at the blackjack table. It would be impossible. Actually, the one caveat is Manny couldn’t be in on it. If he knew he were cheating, he giggle uncontrollably. Preseason Rank #21, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.315, Final Numbers: 102/37/121/.332

3. Lance Berkman - Already went over Berkman in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #12, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/115/.310/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

4. Grady Sizemore - The Zagat Guide to Cleveland said, “The twelfth chapter of “The Akron Ladies Spread for Grady’s Baby,” were “happy” with his “numbers.” Calling him a “speed/power combo to make a jackhammer envious” and they’d like to sandwich him like the Rs on the word rawr.” Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  120/35/85/.290/30, Final Numbers: 101/33/90/.268/38

5. Carlos Beltran - Beltran was underrated on the Royals, then overrated on the Mets and now he seems to have found his way back to underrated. The only thing that remains the same, he can play a gay teenager with aplomb. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/110/.270/18, Final Numbers:   116/27/112/.284/25

6. Josh Hamilton - Fantasy baseball shot itself up on Hamilton for the fist half of the year, then, as with any good buzz, there were fewer thrills later on and mostly you were left trying to reclaim some of the past highs. Preseason Rank #38, Preseason Predictions:  70/27/80/.300/5, Final Numbers:  98/32/130/.304/9

7. Ichiro Suzuki - Here’s a monkey serving beer in Japan. With more and more monkeys waiting tables to make ends meet, it makes me wonder… Will more and more monkeys also try to make it as actors? Or will actors start being monkeys? Either way, go watch that monkey again. It’s wonderful! (You gotta love how he sneaks off to eat edamame. Monkeys love edamame — case closed.) Oh, bee-tee-dubya, Ichiro got some hits and some steals. Who saw that coming? Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  110/10/65/.330/45, Final Numbers:  103/6/42/.310/43

8. Ryan Ludwick -  Ludwick is the first completely out of nowhere outfielder. Last year, he hit more home runs in the major leagues than he hit at any stop in the minors, which is saying a lot considering he’s 30 years old and, like Gary Glitter, he’s been banging around the minors since 1999. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  104/37/113/.299/4

9. Ryan Braun - Already went over Braun in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. (Note: Braun was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In all fairness, I would’ve ranked him above Ryan Ludwick.), Preseason Predictions:  100/27/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  92/37/106/.285/14

10. Matt Kemp - Kemp’s 2008 was like Tom Cruise in Risky Business. It may have only been one movie, but you just knew more was on the way. Hopefully, in a few years, Kemp doesn’t hit a home run then begin to laugh like a madman while wearing five inch heals on his cleats. Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  95/20/75/.290/20, Final Numbers:  93/18/76/.290/35

11. Bobby Abreu - I’m convinced there’s no better way to go under radar in fantasy baseball than to have a 20/20 season as an outfielder. The Witness Protection Agency should reassign people into the major leagues and give them ten years of 20/20 seasons. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  120/15/110/.310/20, Final Numbers:  100/20/100/.296/22

12. Nate McLouth - We didn’t rank him, but Rudy did say on Opening Day, “(McLouth has) SB and Run potential. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.” And that’s me quoting Rudy! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  113/26/94/.276/23

13. Johnny Damon - Is it me or are Yankees suddenly being underrated and forgotten? Some sort of anti-Big Business/anti-ESPN thing going on here. Damon’s numbers were eerily similar to Alexis Rios and think about how many teams Rios clogged up. Seriously, think about it. I don’t see you thinking. There ya go. Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  105/15/70/.280/15, Final Numbers:  95/17/71/.303/29

14. Shane Victorino - Hamilton-Burrishly, Victorino and Rios dueled during the regular season to see who would hit more home runs, so it’s fitting that they should come in 14th and 15th respectively. However, The Flying Hawaiian provided a lot more value than Rios considering their ADP. (BTW, how about “Hamilton-Burrishly?” All the kids are gonna be saying that. As soon as they figure out what it means.) Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  115/15/60/.280/40, Final Numbers:  102/14/58/.293/36

15. Alexis Rios - At 15th overall for outfielders, Rios wasn’t as bad as, say, Carl Crawford, but still the power never came. Rios’s power numbers look like Jason Kendall having a Brady Anderson-type ‘roids season. (Minus the sideburns, of course. Speaking of sideburns, am I the only one not watching the new Beverly Hills, 90210? Actually, I should rephrase that, am I the only one not watching Beverly Hills, 90210 who thought they would definitely watch? I just have no desire at all. Now this is either because I’ve outgrown that demographic, which seems unlikely, since I Tivo three hour chunks of MTV and will watch a RR/RW Challenge rerun three times without getting tired of it. Or, and this seems more likely, the show is just lame. The new Brenda reminds me of a girl I would date and breakup with, and I never breakup with anyone. I leave a relationship kicking and screaming. The black kid is no longer running drugs for Marlo — where’s Snoop? The mom is hot. Mrs. Walsh wasn’t hot. WTF? Finally, their stories of kids doing drugs are trying so hard to be salacious. The original 90210 worked because the stories were cheesy with a goofy Steve Sanders runner. Where’s my goofy Steve Sanders runner?!) Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  120/32/110/.300/25, Final Numbers:  91/15/79/.291/32

16. Jacoby Ellsbury - In the beginning of the season, if I would’ve told you a Red Sox player would have 50 steals and not get to 100 runs, would you have believed me? What is going on with offense around the Major Leagues? When I’m putting together the ‘09 predictions, I’m going to have to put on the sweater that not only makes me look smart, but makes me think smart too. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

17. Jason Bay - I pushed Rios like those dudes on Las Vegas Boulevard handing out stripper flyers, while I warned you against touching Bay like the bouncers at those same strip clubs. Okay, so I made a few missteps in the predictions. Preseason Rank #34, Preseason Predictions:  crap/crap/and more crap, Final Numbers:  111/31/101/.286/10 or better than crap, as it were.

18. Carlos Quentin - I told you to watch him in February when he first reported to camp. Not sure why I didn’t rank him or make predictions for him. Maybe it was that one week frozen custard bender where I blacked out and woke up in the lap of some large woman wearing a skirted bathing suit. If it wasn’t for Quentin misplacing blame on his equipment, he prolly would’ve ranked higher and might’ve won the MVP. Nothing good will ever come of that temper of yours, Mr. Quentin. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/36/100/.288/7

19. Nick Markakis - The Greek God of Roto didn’t take the power to the next level like I hoped and stopped running completely in the 2nd half. He’s only 24 and you haven’t heard me say “I am Sparkakis” for the last time yet. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/115/.300/20, Final Numbers:  106/20/87/.306/10

20. Jermaine Dye - His lack of speed lands him at the 20th spot, but I’d prefer him to some of his schmohawk contemporaries… *cough* Rios *cough* Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/105/.280, Final Numbers:  96/34/96/.292/3

I liked Carlos Quentin going into spring of ‘07. Whoa! You got the wrong year there, buddy? No, no I didn’t. I drafted Quentin in lots of leagues in ‘07 because of his .940 OPS in the minors. He looked like the real deal. Had pizz-ower, spizz-eed and a good iz-eye. (If Jay-Z plays fantasy baseball, he’s so going to be searching Google for some pizz-ower and spizz-eed.) With a spot in Arizona’s outfield locked up, this guy, Quentin, was going to be a superstar. Then ‘07 happened and Quentin was eating from a container of I Can’t Believe It’s Not Better. Then, this season, he finally started to live up to his promise… Wait, what is this? Carlos Quentin, This Is Your Life? You know the deal, he hit well this year. But now he has a fractured wrist. As long as he doesn’t have a setback in the post-season or off-season, I’m liking Quentin. This year was not a fluke. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for ‘09:

Alexei Ramirez - Nothing for nothing, but he wasn’t supposed to be good. He’s about to be a Latin 27, but I’ve often remarked (I’m a remarker, ya’ll!) that he looks a bit like Alfonso Soriano. Just be careful about who you keep Alexei Ramirez over. Remember Angel Berroa won a Rookie of the Year with eerily similar numbers. (BTW, why can’t anything ever be eerily different?  Olbermann and O’Reilly are eerily different, right?)

Kevin Slowey - I try to stay away from keeping pitchers. In certain leagues or certain keeper teams, it’s unavoidable. Then there’s pitchers I actually want to keep; Kevin Slowey is one. This is the 2nd year in a row that Slowey’s trending in the right direction. Not only are his HRs coming down (literally — oofa!) but his Ks are going up. He used to be compared favorably to Radke, he may just pass those expectations. I will tout him more this winter, possibly building a Slowey shrine (from the scraps of my knocked-down Alex Gordon shrine).

Steven Pearce - On Tuesday, Pearce finally flashed some power for the Pirates that he’s shown plenty of in the minors. To burrow an Austrailian phrase, he can wombat with the best of them. (Yes, I meant to write burrow. It’s a pun, people!)

Kila Ka’aihue will need a nickname if he plans on being as good as he looked in the minors this year. How about Misplaced Apostrophe? Nope. Ka’aihue hits home runs and, get this, doesn’t strikeout. Weird! Check this out, Tootsie Roll. He had 67 strikeouts and 104 walks. Sign me up! Wait, you haven’t even heard the exciting part yet. He hit the fourth most HRs in the minor leagues in 2008 with 37, which were hit between Double-A and Triple-A. How about the nickname, Keanu? It means Cool Breeze Over the Mountains in Hawaiian. Nope. Ka’aihue has to battle for playing time on the Royals, but if he gets some, I’d take a flier in AL-Only leagues and monitor closely in keeper leagues and mixed leagues. How about The Big Island? Hmm, that’s not bad. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Josh Fields - With Crede suffering from back pain (Crede should totally go see my acupuncturist. She speaks no English and she tries to charge me double every time I go, but still she’s like Anne Sullivan with needles.), Guillen turns to Uribe, a guy that somehow has had a major league career. C’mon, Josh Fields Forever…

Josh Anderson - Who’s this effin’ schmohawk Grey’s touting this week? Easy there, guy. I’ll slice you. Josh Anderson has started every game in the last week and he has a home run and three steals. If you’re hurting for steals, you can do worse.

Mike Lowell - If he was dropped in your league, he’d due back today.

Dexter Fowler - Worth a NL-Only flier in keeper leagues. He might be someone to look at late in the season if/when the Rox get Elimidated by the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. He might not have a spot next year, but I think the Rox are going to do all they can to move on from Taveras.

Brandon Wood - Starting just about every game. When the Angels clinch, which is academic at this point, Wood should see even more time as Scioscia gives his regulars some rest.

Travis Snider - I mentioned picking up Travis Snider earlier today. And that’s me linking to me!

James Loney - My first baseman had a second name, it’s L-O-N-E-Y. He’s a .370 September hitter.

Casey Kotchman - Since we’re talking about 1st basemen that don’t have a cholesterol problem. Kotchman bats near .320 in September.

Rafael Furcal - At middle infield, you can afford to gamble on a DL slot.

Mike Hessman - With the Tigers playing for nothing and Guillen hurting, Hessman could see time at 3rd base. He had 32 home runs in Triple-A this year and he was awesome in Head of the Class.

SELL

Carlos Zambrano - He’s inflammed! Inflammed, I tell ya!

Mike Lamb -Well, he got the “out like a Lamb” part right.

Carlos Gomez - Bad week for Carloses (Carli?). In some leagues, where I’m desperate for steals, I’m holding him, but the Twins have been going out of their way to find other options. You probably should too.

Brandon Morrow - Let’s be realistic, he hasn’t been that good in the minors while stretching myself out, he pitches for the Mariners (F-Her is 9-9) and he won’t last much longer than six innings in any start. If you’re in a pinch, I could see taking a flier. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Gary Sheffield - He’d show you, but he’s too old; too banged up and too fuckin’ blind– I mean… See the first two.

Evan Longoria - I had my doubts about Longoria returning, and now he’s yet to pickup a bat, 4 days after he was supposedly returning. There’s. Three. Weeks. Left.

Carlos Guillen - This is the time of year that regulars give way to rooks, especially on clubs that are out of it. This goes double for guys who are battling injury. En garde, Injury!

Carlos Quentin - Actually, it’s an awful week for Carloses. He has a fractured wrist. Drop him in all leagues, except keepers.

Carlos Lee is hurt. Bad. He broke his left pinkie finger sending him to the DL. This also can’t be good for his Dr. Evil impersonation. Chances are he won’t be back this year. I’ve gone ahead and cut him in a 15-team league. Currently, my Carlos Lee replacement is Mike Cameron/Austin Kearns. Mike Cameron’s been hot and… I can’t even justify Austin Kearns, though he did hit a home run yesterday. This hurts everyone in the Astros lineup and their pitching staff, which will now receive even less run support. Too bad, because, with that Randy Wolf acquisition, they were really looking like legit contenders for fifth place in the Wild Card standings. Now the Braves might have their number. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford - The other “Carl loss” is our good friend, Carl Crawford. Looks like it was a bad year to predict he would finally show some power. However, it was a good year for me to trade him for Ryan Braun about two months ago. Phew. The right hand injury that forced Carl Crawford to the DL could force him out of action for the rest of the season. I would not drop Crawford just yet, because he thinks he’ll be back in 15 days. We’ll see. This opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli to get quickly injured, Cliff Floyd to throw a tantrum and Gabe Gross to pickup the pieces. Hopefully you have different options than the Rays.

Chris Carpenter - Right triceps strain. At the best, gone for a start. At the worst, gone ’til March. You shouldn’t have been counting on Carpenter for much anyway.

Brad Lidge - Complaining of a sluggish shoulder. Hopefully no one puts salt on it. (Get it? Cause if you put salt on a slug…Oh, forget it.) Ryan Madson got the save yesterday. Chad Durbin got the save on Saturday. Probably will be some combination of the two (or even JC Romero, if the matchup is right) that will fill-in for Lidge. If this doesn’t turn into a 15-day DL stint for Lidge, I’d be shocked. If the Phillies push him through, it could turn into a “Lidge hopes to be ready for spring training”-type deal.

Orlando Hudson - Will need season-ending surgery to fix a dislocated wrist. If you were counting on O-Dog for anything, you have bigger fish to fry. This boosts Conor Jackson’s value a bit because he’ll be inserted into the three hole on a regular basis. Looks like Upton will have to find someone else to carry him around.

Aaron Harang - 4 IP, 8 ER. Good to see him pickup right where he left off.

Scott Rolen - Placed on the DL with a sore shoulder that has caused him problems in the past. Unless you’re in a league that only used aging vets that are drafted on name recognition alone, you probably didn’t have Rolen anyway. And, if you’re in a league like that, grab Aurilla. He’ll suit you just fine.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 K. The C. Lee that didn’t break any hearts this weekend.

Mike Hampton - 4 IP, 6 ER. After the game, he didn’t say, but should have said, “I sucked, but that shouldn’t surprise you.”

Todd Helton - If you just read his name and said to yourself, “Oh, wow! I totally forgot Todd Helton existed.” You’re not alone. Helton had a minor setback and now might not return this season.

Carlos Quentin - HR yesterday. 10th since the All-Star Break. Making a strong case for AL MVP and being pretty overvalued next year.

Manny Parra - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats. Ah, to pitch against the Nats, if only you weren’t followed by Backne. Parra, “Hey, Billingsley, I saw Kuo blew your lead–” “Actually, Alyssa Milano is blowing my lead right now.”

Fernando Rodney - Got the save yesterday, but the Tigers made it a five run game in the bottom of the 8th so it wasn’t a traditional save. As to who would get the ball in a traditional save opportunity, whoever Leyland wants to point his yellow-stained finger towards. My guess is Rodney, Zumaya and Farnsworth, in that order.

Huston Street - Not sure how far down the depth chart Street’s fallen? He entered the 5th inning  yesterday and gave up 3 runs. Joey Devine might get a save before Street. (BTW, Street only had 18 saves in three quarters of the season. You gotta ask yourself how badly do you want those other five saves he might get.)

Lastings Milledge - Hit another HR yesterday. Has 5 HRs in the last ten games. Might give Mike Cameron a run for the least owned 20/20 man in the history of fantasy baseball.

Emilio Bonifacio - 0-for-6 and nary a hit all weekend. I’m giving him until the end of the week and then will reevaluate. To try and jumpstart Bonifacio, I’m wearing a rally merkin (Weird Thing of the Day) on my head.