Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not the most sentimental of guys. I prefer a good donkey show to an Annie Potts Lifetime show, but I gotta be honest, I was somewhat sad to hear the news on Smoltz. At his news conference, I liked when he said this, “I don’t ever want to stick around throwing 85 MPH and trying to paint corners like a little bitch. Oh, hey Tom…didn’t see you there…” I warned everyone a month ago that Smoltz may not be able to close games again and to trade him quick fast. Yesterday, one person, who heeded my advice, approached me at the supermarket while I waited in line to buy crumpets. They shook my hand and said this, “Grey, thanks for getting me out of Smoltz when you did.” As I smiled, they continued, “And your mustache is much fuller in person.” It is. You’re welcome. Looking at the Smoltz replacements,  I’d rank the remaining Braves relievers: Soriano, Acosta then Gonzalez. This is also taking into consideration that in yesterday’s game, Acosta got the save chance and blew it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Manny Parra - The title of today’s post was almost Manny Parradiso, but that will have to wait for another day. I like him as much as I’ve liked him all along, but that’s not to say I think he’s out of the woods completely. ‘Member he was going against the D-backs, a team not known for inducing walks. Something he has been prone to this year.

Carlos Pena - Fractured his left index finger on a hit by pitch. Surprising, because if someone could swing through a hit by pitch, our money was on Carlos Pena. For the record, here are the starting 1B in the AL East: Yanks - Giambi, Sawx - Youkilis, Orioles - Millar, Rays - Hinske, Jays - Overbay. Mattingly, Murray, Willie Upshaw…where are you?

Justin Duchscherer - Not often you catch old Grey by surprise, but Just-Dooks has done the trick so far this year. (BTW, the ‘27 Yankees/’08 Tigers comparisons in the March were a bit off. Cust kayin’.)

Mike Mussina - Joins Joe Saunders atop the AL Win lead with 9 wins. Proof that not only can pigs fly, but they can make cross-country flights.

Jose Reyes - 8 HR of the year yesterday. Don’t you love when your ‘all speed guy’ hits a home run.

Jered Weaver - Possible theory, the Weaver Bros. went home two seasons ago and Jered got a real talking to about making his big brother look bad. Momma Weaver, at the behest of Jeff, pulled Jered aside and said this, “Give up four runs a game like your brother, or I won’t love you anymore.” Jered went to see his Dad in the garage, “Your mother’s got her way, that’s for sure. Listen, you give up as many earned runs as you want. Now hand me that Phillip’s head.” So you see Jered’s torn for his love of the game and his mother’s love. We’ll see what eventually wins out, but he gave up four runs to the Mariners yesterday, so right now the apron strings are still pulling.

Corey Hart - Home run courtesy of Justin Upton. Should’ve been a single.

Carlos Gonzalez - Elias Sports Bureau reports that Carlos Gonzalez hit his fifth double yesterday in his sixth MLB game, which ties a record held by the Scooter Weetoeski, Carl “Red Curb” Tyler and Ox Lester. (Actually, Elias didn’t say any of that, but it sounds like something they might say. Here’s some other things that might have been overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau. “On June 2nd, the stapler was filled twice in one day for the first time since ‘99.” “On May 28th, Billy asked one person to call him William for the first time in three weeks.” “On April 22nd, there were four crullers thrown away that were clearly labeled, “Don’t Throw Away.” No other time in the history of Elias Sports Bureau has this happened.”

Hanley Ramirez - 2 HRs and a steal yesterday. Now has 11 HR/14 Steals. Almost exactly where he was last year at this time (8/16). Last year he had his 2nd biggest steal month of the season in May when he stole 10, this year he stole 4 in the month of May. His lowest steal total for a month in two years. Remember in spring training it was announced Hanley wouldn’t steal as much this year.

Aaron Cook - Have him on a few teams. Boring, right? Boring wins titles! Write that above your Barclay Lounger as you watch TV.

Brett Myers - 7 1/3 IP, 1 hit. Gets the loss. If anyone can console him, it’s his girlfriend. She’s used to getting beaten with one hit.

Edinson Volquez - Nothing to say, but he made Utley look stupid.

Corey Patterson - He’s back up. Now the Reds fans can go seamlessly from “Boo” to “Bruce.”

Brian Fuentes - Word on The Streets of New York is they need Fuentes to fill in for Joba. Maybe next year they can turn Fuentes into a three inning starter. Buchholz would take over if Fuentes moves, but I don’t see Fuentes going anywhere in the near future.

Clayton Kershaw - The Dodgers don’t need a 5th starter for 17 games, so Kershaw’ll have time to think about yesterday’s start over the next couple weeks in the Dodger bullpen. Maybe Saito and Chan Ho will teach him what’s up. Either that or he’s playing beer pong with Broxton.

Cliff Lee - Five runs in the first three innings? No, that’s not possible. Karabell said he’d win the fictitious Fantasy Cy Young.

Jhonny Peralta/Khalil Greene - I had these two schmohawks rated about the same in the preseason. Well, I got that right. Nice zerho for six night, Jhonny, when your team scores 15. I’m never picking a guy with H as his second letter in his first name unless it actually makes phonetic sense.

Milton Bradley/David Murphy - Yeah, Josh Hamilton is amazing, but let’s give some props to the guys hitting behind them. Bradley is at 36/12/38/.324 and Murphy is at 34/7/39/5/.292. It’s hard to imagine a trio of drug addict, rage addict, and an Irishman performing at these levels all year, but let’s give them their due. 3-1 odds that Bradley and Murphy get in a fight and Murphy’s friend Sully hits Bradley over the head with a beer bottle and Bradley hurts his hamstring on the way to the ground. I’m not betting against Hamilton because he’s found God.

Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Homer Bailey - About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw - wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.

Mark Prior - Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Tim Hudson - I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!

Brain Bannister - One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.

Troy Glaus - Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.

Ian Snell - If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.

Nate McLouth - Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.

Chase Utley - 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!

Shawn Hill - Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.

Chad Tracy - Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.

JR Towles - Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.

Bartolo Colon - Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla - Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.

Adrian Gonzalez - I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.

Carlos Beltran - HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.

Johnny Cueto - I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.

JJ Putz - Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is - Carlos Silva?

Ryan Church - Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”

Manny Acosta called into Razzball HQ yesterday. Here’s what he had to say, “Upon returnance, John Smoltz can have closer job back. Upon Soriano’s returnance, he can have setup role. Gonzalez wants eighth inning and lefty specialist role? He have it. I’m not a lefty anyway. I wish only good happenings to Mr. Cox, my family, my team and Jesus Cristo. I request Cox do closer by committee until Smoltz returns, because that is the most democratic. Now put me in the sixth inning, so I can avoid this mess. I wish to chillax. I have myself on one fantasy team, and let me say this, ‘I drop myself.’ Now vote Obama!” There you have it, folks. Razzball’s first big scoop. If that doesn’t make us hotter than baby stew, I don’t know what does. Not only has Acosta dropped himself, but he’s also voting Democrat. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Royce Ring - Relieved Acosta. I don’t think he’s going to have much value going forward. He’s a lefty specialist, ya’ll.

Jeff Bennett - Relieved Royce Ring retiring rast Radre (okay, a little forced on the alliteration). I have him on one team. The team I’m hoping sucks. Then again, I have Carlos Silva on that team and he only gave up one run against the Mariners. Then again, it was the Mariners.

Buddy Caryle - If The Kouz would’ve reached, Buddy would’ve joined the closer committee. Officially, the Bravos bullpen is filled with options, which makes the Acosta option weak at best. Wait, Acosta’s calling in again, “I told ya. Not interested in closing. Tooooo stressful. And put five ohs on ‘too.’”

Gavin Floyd - *SPOILER ALERT* He’s still not good. Let me put it this way, if he would’ve got a no-hitter, I still wouldn’t have picked him up in any leagues. He’s not a hidden gem that can replace Gallardo or Hill or Smoltz or any other starter you’ve recently lost.

Aaron Harang - Can’t blame him, he pitched well enough to win. Imagine a world where Harang pitched for the Yankees. Now imagine the Yankees played in Petco. Harang’d win twenty-five and would have already dumped Alyssa Milano like three times. Alas, the Reds score no runs every fifth day.

Ben Francisco - He can do what I thought The Big FraGu could do, but he’s going to be doing it in the same crowded outfield so he may not get enough at-bats. If he does get at-bats, he could get to 15/15 and he’s actually already in Yahoo — woo-hoo! But you don’t necessarily want him just yet, except in the deepest of leagues.

Shawn Hill - *looking for positives* Bunch of rinky-dink hits. *looking at negatives* Needs to be more economical. It’s not like he’s striking people out and he’s barely getting through the fifth.

Jacques Jones - Word he might pop up on the Padres or the Marlins. As Chicago once sang, “Look away, baby, look away.” (BTW, I wish Jones pronounced his first name like that black dude from The Real World: San Diego. That’s it; just felt like saying that.)

Wilfredo Ledezma - He’s already gone in my NL-Only league. Why? Cause he’s now the Padres’ fifth starter. Any Padres starter has value because of their home park. He replaces Germano in the rotation. And he begins dating Alyssa Milano by July.

Brian Bannister - This is closer to the type of pitcher he is, not the April guy who everyone was picking up.

Manny Corpas - Struckout Pujols. Sure, it was in the seventh inning, but I wouldn’t count him out just yet.

Felipe Lopez - Oh-for-five with four strikeouts — that’s razztastic.

Orlando Hudson - O-Dog’s hamstring is barking. He didn’t look good on Monday when he was in the starting lineup so it’s not surprising that he was sitting out yesterday’s game.

Austin Kearns - You’re not roping me in this time, Kearns. No, sir. (But he does go on hot streaks and hits home runs in bunches and he just hit a home run and… Oh, he’s roping me in again. I need a support group. Austin’s Kids? The Kearns Trauma Unit? Second Degree Kearns? I don’t know. Rudy probably will come up with something.)

Jhonny Peralta - I like seeing someone batting .219 in May. They’re due. But he’s not exactly a .300 hitter.

Jason Giambi - I really like seeing someone bat .157. But he’s not exactly a .260 hitter.

Robinson Cano - Also batting .157 (weird!). But he’s not exactly Actually, he is better. So what, he bats .310 the rest of the way? .320?

Scott Olsen - I gotta be honest, I kinda wrote him off this year, but he’s always had talent. Opponents are batting .186 against him, but his K/BB is not good and BB/9 isn’t either. A correction could be coming.

Jonathan Sanchez - He gets the Phillies next. I say, no thank you.

Josh Hamilton - If he can steer clear of injuries and crack-cocaine, he could hit 35 in Texas. But, and this is simply hypothetical, if he were to smoke crack-cocaine, I think his power would remain, but he’d probably show flashes of speed. That’s right, Josh Hamilton’s a 35/20 player if he relapses. Downside, rehab group with Dwight Gooden. Upside, first round selection next year. That’s a coin flip if I’m his agent.

Andruw Jones - Batted second yesterday. All I have to say is, “Ha!”

Blake DeWitt - Now has two home runs in two days. Tonight’s was of the inside the park variety. He doesn’t have much upside.

Santiago Casilla - Now has a save to go with his perfect ERA. Huston Street loses a fibula or some shizz by the All-Star break and he’s closing.

Jeff Mathis - Now in a 3-for-28 slump. In the world of catchers who aren’t owned, I like Dioner Navarro.

Stephen Drew - Fourth home run, should be owned in all leagues. Well, not all leagues, cause there are some that only play with the American League guys.

Ryan Ludwick - Let’s assume LaRussa’s hitting the juice again, but even he has to see Ludwick deserves to be in the starting lineup.

AJ Burnett - How about this line: 6 IP, 10Ks, 9 hits, 5 earned runs. Looked like half the team couldn’t figure him out and the other half couldn’t wait to face him.

Carlos Pena - Almost forty strikeouts. Cust kayin’.

Nate McLouth - Nine home runs?! He’s like Andy Van Slyke’s kid brother. All he needs is a prima donna LF.

On each Sunday (it was Friday, but it is what it is, so deal) we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

QUESTION:

I’m in a 10 team 5×5 league with a 1400 inning max for pitchers. I am currently in second, but sitting next to last in RBI’s and K’s. I’m hoping Howard will step up and give me some RBI’s soon. Someone is shopping Verlander right now. I need to get rid of some offensive players and pick up more pitchers, but the waiver wire is pretty sad. Do you have any suggestions?

SP Peavy, Jake (SD)
SP Zambrano, Carlos (CHN)
SP Wood, Kerry (CHN)
SP Vazquez, Javier (CHA)
SP Volquez, Edison (CIN)
RP Rauch, Jon (WAS)
RP Wilson, C.J. (TEX)
RP Percival, Troy (TB)
P Wellemeyer, Todd (STL)
Bn Wolf, Randy (SD)

C Doumit, Ryan (PIT)
C Soto, Geovany (CHN)
1B Howard, Ryan (PHI)
2B Upton, B.J. (TB)
3B Gordon, Alex (KC)
SS Furcal, Rafael (LAD)
LF Lee, Carlos (HOU)
CF Young, Chris B. (ARI)
RF Quentin, Carlos (CHA)
IF Morneau, Justin (MIN)
OF Figgins, Chone (LAA)
OF Markakis, Nick (BAL)
Util Blalock, Hank (TEX)
Bn Crosby, Bobby (OAK)
Bn Kemp, Matt (LAD)
Bn Young, Michael (TEX)
Bn Young, Delmon (MIN)
DL Westbrook, Jake DL (CLE)
DL Victorino, Shane DL (PHI)
DL Gwynn, Tony (MIL)

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Given you could only use 5 starters, there has to be someone with 7-8 good starters, no?

I’d definitely pick up Verlander. That’s going to require a big chip. My recommendation is Furcal. I’m a big fan of his this year but 1) you’ve got Michael Young and 2) you’ve got more than enough speed. The difference b/w Furcal and Young when you factor out speed isn’t very big.

You may want to scan the rest of the teams to see who is weak in speed and strong in SP. Furcal should fetch a good 2nd tier starter. You may also want to consider another power bat, if you can’t find a starter to plug in at OF or UTIL. If you could get the same deal for Figgins or Victorino, I’d do that instead (I like Furcal better than those two.)

QUESTION:

I could really use some help with one of my teams. It’s my highest stakes team and probably my most disappointing to date. I feel a bit outclassed to be honest. It’s a 13 team, 5×5 mixed non-keeper with OBP instead of BA.

TEAM’S JPG

Obviously my most pressing needs are SB and SV. I could use runs too but that’s usually a byproduct of the steals. My starting pitching is kind of thin/injured after trading Snell for Valverde (thanks for the advice on that by the way. i’m feeling good about Valverde’s last 2 outings, and finally a 1-2-3 yesterday), so I’m thinking of trading a little power or obp for steals/runs.

Anyway, I’ve been offered two trades from the same guy. Granderson for C.Pena and Broxton, or Cano for C.Pena. Pena’s value obviously goes up a bunch in this league, as he goes from a likely BA killer, to a neutral OBP. I like the cano deal but it doesn’t solve my problems. I think if I got Granderson, I’d be content with my speed situation, but I really hate moving broxton. He has no one else I really want other than Percival and Wood, which he wants too much for. I might be able to add Maine for Percival but I don’t even want to do that, do I?

Who are some good targets for me to go after? And who do you think are good players for me to trade away? Having Wheeler and Qualls (and Reyes and Pena are FA), I’d feel a lot more comfortable getting Percival or Lyon than someone like Wood, as someone owns Marmol.

Anyway, sorry that was long winded, but any advice at all would be much appreciated. I’m not panicking, especially with my #1 pick struggling, but I definitely want to address my needs. Thanks, guys.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I’m not a huge fan of Granderson and don’t think he’ll ever be a major SB contributor (maybe 30?) as he doesn’t have that instinct. Kinda like Bernie Williams. But Carlos Pena and Broxton isn’t that big of a price given that OFs are more valuable than 1B. I’d prefer to hold tight and see how the Flyin’ Hawaiian recovers….

Cano for C. Pena doesn’t help you on speed but would definitely help upgrade the offense you get out of MI. Based on preseason Point Shares, I’ve got Cano being more valuable than Cano but that is based on AVG vs. OBP. I’d say it’s a toss-up. Remember that even if you’re not particularly weak in categories, any opportunity to improve nets you points.

I wouldn’t sweat saves. Looks like based on the other team totals that you’re not the only one scrounging. Valverde would help. Maybe Corpas comes around. Hopefully you snag another anointed closer. You can always make a trade in July/August if it isn’t working out.

Otherwise, I think your team is in pretty good shape. Can’t think of anyone I’d particularly target for acquisition or trading. But any trade that makes you stronger helps…

Yesterday, we went over the top twenty catchers for ‘08 to draft here to add to our top ten overall and our 11 thru 20 draft list. Thankfully, we’re moving onto a meatier position as we go around the horn to our 1st basemen draft list for 2008. Also, if you want to check out our 2007 Player Rater, it’s here. Yeah, screw you ESPN and your ESPN Player Rater. Or look at that one here. We forgive you.

1. Albert Pujols See the top ten.

2. Prince Fielder See the top ten.

3. Ryan Howard See 11-20.

4. Travis Hafner – Pronk listed here might get me the most grief, but last year was not the norm with only 24 homers and a .266 average. I see a major bounce back. Besides having the best nickname currently in baseball, he can mash in the middle of great lineup, he knows how to take a walk and he has an indeterminate race. If Hafner doesn’t have 1st base eligibility in your league, I’d move him below the next three. Projections: 100/40/110/.300

5. Mark Teixeira – With a last name that hard to spell, he better be good. So, it’s I before X, except after… Whatever. His 1st halfs have not been what they should for two years now. Starting to look like a trend, but he still has good pop in his bat, just don’t expect 43 homers again. BTW, I need to add an FYI here. FYI, Tex, Derrek and Berkman are very close in value. They ended up in this order because Tex is the youngest and has the most upside, Derrek has a better lineup than Berkman, and Berkman’s at #7 because he seems racist to me. (I wonder what Berkman would think of Hafner?) But I digress. Tex’s Projections: 110/35/120/.305

6. Derrek Lee – In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5

7. Lance Berkman – The addition of Tejada can’t hurt. Maybe he can introduce Lance to the clear or the cream or whatever it is they’re flagellating on themselves nowadays. I don’t think we’re ever gonna see ’06 type numbers from him again, so act accordingly. Projections: 100/30/115/.310/5

8. Justin Morneau – He doesn’t take enough walks to grab those MVP numbers ever again, but he is young and has enough natural ability to put up nice numbers. Beware of his average, he won’t hit .300 without a whole lot of luck. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

9. Adrian Gonzalez – On one hand, he plays at Petco. On the other hand, he’ll be only 26 in ’08. And on your final hand, assuming you have three hands, I can’t imagine anyone hitting 40 homers at Petco, so we’re looking at a ceiling of 35 homers. Not awful, but he did strikeout a lot from June on last year. Projections: 90/33/105/.280

10. Paul Konerko – The White Sox flat out stunk last year. Nothing went right. Konerko’s season was no different. He’ll only be 32 in ’08. Look for a bounce back, but keep expectations in line. He’s not going to hit 40-plus and .300-plus. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

11. Carlos Pena – I wanted to rank him higher, but my better senses wouldn’t let me. He needs to do what he did last year again before he moves up the rankings, but he might come as a steal in some drafts. Then again, he might be one of the bigger busts of ‘08. No risk, no reward, but remember he was allergic to walks before last year. I don’t trust him and won’t have him on any of my teams. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.

12. Todd Helton – He has no upside, but, fortunately, I don’t see much downside either. He’s about as unexciting as a 1st basemen can be while still offering something of value. Projections: 90/15/90/.315

13. Carlos Guillen – The people over at Faketeams.com have Guillen way higher than this at number three overall for 1B. They run a good site, but on this point, I think they missed the mark. Their thesis statement is Guillen will give you a little bit of everything. That’s true. It fails to realize there’s much more reliance on power at 1st base. As you can see from our article, How Do You Value Fantasy Hitters?, the Best Available Option at 1B beats Guillen’s 162 game average in homers and nearly equals in RBIs. Not to mention, Guillen isn’t young and he is often injured. Now if you’re using Guillen at SS or MI, then that’s a different story. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8

14. Kevin Youkilis – Is it me or does he look like he should be hitting 35 homers every year? Well, he won’t. He needs to hit twenty first. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the lineup instead of the six hole):115/21/90/.290/3

15. Nick Swisher – We finally got some great upside here as Swisher takes his carefree attitude over to the White Sox and gets to hit in a much better lineup. He needs to stabilize his average, which is odd for a man with a good eye, but there’s major sleeper potential here. I’m high on Swisher this year and these numbers are low-balling him. Projections: 95/30/100/.275

16. Mike Jacobs – Here’s some more upside for you. The Marlins will be dreadful, but Jacobs could be a bright spot. Jacobs maintained a 2:1 BB:K last year as he struggled with a thumb injury. This year could be the year the power comes-a-callin’. I think it is. Projections: 70/30/95/.285

17. Carlos Delgado – The best has left the building. As someone who watched more Mets games last year than I care to admit, Delgado flounders against lefties to the point where I think a platoon might work. And, if the Mets don’t do a platoon, you should seriously consider sitting him against lefties if you draft him. Projections: 70/28/95/.260

18. Adam LaRoche – In December of ’07, he had his 2nd MRI on his knee and decided to rest rather than surgery. This is not a good thing. Avoid him and go for one of the next three if you find yourself scrambling for a 1st basemen in the later rounds. Projections: 70/27/100/.265

19. James Loney – He’ll be 24 in ’08 and he has the natural skills to take him to the top ten of 1st basemen for ’09. Major sleeper potential. Hopefully, Torre plays him like he should. Every day. Projections: 95/22/85/.315

20. Casey Kotchman – Well, it only took him a year and a half to recover from mono (Magic beat AIDS in less time). This is the year Kotchman lives up to the potential. Projections: 80/22/80/.300

21. Ryan Garko – Meat, I couldn’t not tell you to get on the Garko wagon. He may not break camp as the starter, but keep a close eye on him. Projections (if he starts by May): 65/27/80/.280

After the 21, lots of people obviously, but avoid:

Richie Sexson – Last year was an aberration. He won’t be that bad again in ’08. You still don’t want to draft him. He’s a batting average drain when he’s playing well. Find thirty homers elsewhere. You’re welcome.

Tomorrow, the top twenty second basemen for 2008.