Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

Actually, the title’s completely inaccurate.  I don’t rock rough or anything with Aubrey Huff.  I think he’s one of the few players in the major leagues that I’ve never owned anywhere.   Sometime you gotta give me a call and let me know what it’s like to own him, loyal Razzball reader.  Um, yeah, my number’s listed.  Under mustache.  Speaking of which, is there anything sadder than the people who call you to see if you got a Yellow Pages?  Not only am I not sure why they still make Yellow Pages, but calling to find out if I got it?  Really?  Are they calling from 1987?  Hey, go see the movie Wall Street, it’s great!  So, Aubrey Huff hit three homers and drove in 6.  In the last two games, four homers.   It’s terrific, but I still think he falls way short of last year’s numbers.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Xavier Paul – 4-for-5, 2 steals (and attempted a third).  Now for the Mystique behind X-Man. He failed to catch on with the Dodgers then they went with Jay Gibbons, Jane Goodall’s favorite player, but now he’s getting a “kinda” look in Pittsburgh.  He also likes long walks on a beach and juggling oranges.  Sorry, I pulled that from his Plenty of Fish profile. (BTW, That site name is really close to Plenty Oafish, which could describe some of the men on there.  Am I right, three lady readers, or am I right-right?)  Paul looks like he could swipe 20 bags with full-time duty (hehe, I said duty) and hit 10 home runs.  In other words, a poor man’s Angel Pagan without a full-time job.  Yay, let’s stop traffic and let the Jabbawockeez dance.  Paul’s the kind of guy that can help win NL-Only leagues, but, unless he’s playing every day, I’d hold for now in most mixed leagues.  Now if the Pirates decide to bench Tabata or Robot and Diaz then this new X-Man opens wide.

Garrett Jones – In trouble of losing serious playing time.  If it’s not the argh-forementioned Pirate, Matt Diaz got the start yesterday vs. a righty.

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 9th home run.  In the 19 games since I told you to sell him after his 3 homer game, he has 7 runs, 1 home run and 8 RBIs.  718 is also the Mets area code.  Jayson Stark could write 2500 words on that significance and get Tim Kurkjian’s voice to crack multiple times.

Mike Pelfrey – 5 IP, 7 ER as he couldn’t keep the bats off the Pelfrey.

Lance Lynn – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  You didn’t have to see the game to know that 4 baserunners and 5 runs means he got unlucky.  I’m not saying he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy, but I’m still holding out hope in NL-Only leagues.

Colby Rasmus – 2-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 5th home run.  May be a day late on this but he’s a decent buy low candidate. Still plenty of time for him to get to 20+ homers and 15 steals.

Jim Thome – Headed to the DL.  Very suspicious that his injury stint comes at the same time as the 2011 Log Rolling & Straw Chewing Championships.

Jason Kubel – Also headed to the DL.  Before the Twins game, they raised their 7th pennant flag.  Wait a second, that’s not a pennant flag.

Jordan Zimmermann – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  His Ks are way down this year — maybe Liriano is telling him to pitch to contact — but he still has a 1.14 WHIP and 3.61 ERA.  Like the quarter of Harrison Ford that is Jewish, not too shabby.

Michael Morse – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and now hitting .999* in the last month.   *Only a slight exaggeration.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Who fed this hodgepadre after midnight?

Chase Headley – Has a twelve game hitting streak but only 15 hits, 4 runs and 4 RBIs.  Snooze…BRAYNK! BRAYNK! BRAYNK! BRAYNK!  Whoa, onomatopoeia, you are annoying.

Brett Lawrie – Set to be called up today.  I already went over my Brett Lawrie fantasy.  I wrote it while getting a piggyback ride from a Tongan woman.

Felix Hernandez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Now F-Her just needs to lower his ERA into the mid-2′s and me and him will be copacetic.

Carlos Peguero – Hit two home runs yesterday.  He showed good power in the minors, but he’s got K’s for days, as the kids say as said by someone who has no idea what the kids say.

Matt Joyce – 2-for-4 with a delicious slam and legs that he smothered in hot sauce.  Better eat up cause he’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell and it’s not on the right side which is to say it is on the right side.  Huh?  Yeah, you follow.

James Shields – 4 IP, 7 ER.  Sing with me to the tune of Spider Pig, “Schadenfreude, schadenfreude… Does whatever a schadenfreude does…”

Seattle Mariners 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2010 (11) | 2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [61 – 101] AL West
AAA: [74 – 69] Pacific Coast League – Tacoma
AA: [73 – 66] Southern League – West Tennessee
A+: [75 – 65] California League – High Desert
A: [74 – 65] Midwest League – Clinton
A(ss): [48 – 27] Northwest – Everett
R: [37 – 28] Appalachian League – Pulaski

The Run Down
GM Jack Zduriencik’s genius might have been overplayed entering the 2010 season. After a poor major league season, he has a lot of questions to answer in 2011. His minor league development has been average. He got value for his Cliff Lee trade (Justin Smoak) but has traded major league talent for big question marks in return. The Mariners still have a glut of talent in their minor league outfield – all whom struggle with strikeouts but possess tremendous power (Halman, Peguero, Chavez). Dustin Ackley leads their minors as their 2010 and 2011 number ranked prospect, according to Baseball America. Michael Pineda rose faster than anyone anticipated and Nick Franklin (SS at Low-A) won the Midwest League’s home run crown. There is some hope in the minors but beyond the names mentioned above, there aren’t many impact players ready to shine in 2011.

Graduating Prospects
#2 (TEX/1B) Justin Smoak; #2 (RF) Michael Saunders; #3 (C) Adam Moore; #19 (3B) Matt Tuiasosopo;

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers: (RHP) Maikel Clato; #16 (RHP) Josh Fields; (RHP) Josh Lueke; (RPH) Thomas Wilhelmsen
Hitters: #1 (2B/CF) Dustin Ackley; (3B) Matt Mangini; (OF) Nate Tenbrink

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 Dustin Ackley | 2B | D.o.B: 2-26-88 | Stats (AA/AAA): .267/.368/.407 | 501 AB | 48 XBH | 7 Hr | .140 ISO | 10/3 SB/CS | 79:75 K:BB | .308 BABIP
Patient hitter, solid bat, average power, and plus speed could mean Ackley is the next fantasy MI stud. Ranked number 7 in my Top 50 Fantasy Prospects. Read his Scouting the Unknown for further details. Expect a late May or June 1st call up.

#5 Alex Liddi | 3B | D.o.B: 8-14-88 | Stats (AA): .281/.353/.476 | 502 AB | 60 XBH | 15 Hr | .195 ISO | 5/7 SB/CS | 145:50 K:BB | .366 BABIP
Has good power to all fields but has a long swing. Defense is still a work in progress. Scouts believe Liddi could be a hitter that slugs 20 home runs with a .275 average. The strikeouts are a concern, yet the scouting reports believe time will improve his plate discipline with experience. Needs a solid 400 at-bats in Triple-A this year before expected ETA.

Carlos Peguero | OF | D.o.B: 2-22-87 | Stats (AA): .254/.340/.463 | 488 AB | 51 XBH | 23 Hr | .209 ISO | 7/9 SB/CS | 178:56 K:BB | .351 BABIP
Ranked 25th in the newest Baseball America Handbook, Peguero had a tale of two seasons. His early season home run binge led me to give him a Scouting the Unknown. That was the perfect time to write the article. After April his slash line according to Baseball America (2011) was just .227/.317/.399 along with leading Double-A with 178 strikeouts. Struggles hitting lefties, poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, long swings, chases pitches and doesn’t recognize breaking balls. The power is legit and his main asset. He could be best served as a platoon player in the mold of a Jacques Jones.

#10 Greg Halman | OF | D.o.B: 8-26-87 | Stats (AAA): .243/.310/.545 | 424 AB | 58 XBH | 33 Hr | .302 ISO | 15/4 SB/CS | 169:37 K:BB | .315 BABIP
Physically compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano and projected to perform more like Preston Wilson. Halman is a gifted athlete with average speed and possesses tremendous raw power. He plays solid defense with a strong arm in centerfield. Struggles with contact, drawing walks and a consistent approach in the batters box. John Sickels 2011 handbook has this revealing line, “If you stuck him in a major league lineup and gave him 500 at-bats, he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases for you, while hitting .195.” So Carlos Pena’s 2010 with steals. Even after six minor league seasons, Halman is still only 23 entering the 2011 season. His 2010 major league call up in September was far from spectacular, resulting in 11 strikeouts in 29 at-bats. Although his 2010 season saw him draw a career high in walks (37), Halman has to develop a more consistent game plan otherwise we have another Chris Davis on our hands.

#6 Carlos Triunfel | SS/3B | D.o.B: 2-27-90 | Stats (AA): .257/.286/.332 | 470 AB | 20 XBH | 7 Hr | .075 ISO | 2/8 SB/CS | 54:13 K:BB | .279 BABIP
Finally had a healthy year. Still leaves a lot to be desired. His hype keeps him on this list alone. Still very young (21 entering the 2011 season), but doesn’t have a swing that will generate many extra base hits and defensively there isn’t anything to praise. He may have the tools such as a good swing with “exceptional hand-eye coordination.” He’s a slap hitter with an injury history rivaling Ricky Weeks. I fully expect him to play at Double-A again to open the 2011 season.

#23 Mike Carp | 1B | D.o.B: 6-30-86 | Stats (AAA): .257/.328/.516 | 409 AB | 47 XBH | 29 Hr | .259 ISO | 1/2 SB/CS | 93:41 K:BB | .259 BABIP
Not ranked in Baseball America 2011 handbook. With Justin Smoak expected to man first base for the next 10 years, Carp is nothing more than a filler (read: bench role). Moderate power in the majors, sufficient plate-discipline and average defense, Carp is the perfect backup.

Matt Mangini | 3B | D.o.B: 12-21-85 | Stats (AAA): .313/.352/.521 | 447 AB | 53 XBH | 18 Hr | .208 ISO | 3/0 SB/CS | 96:26 K:BB | .320 BABIP
Ranked number 18 in Baseball America’s 2011 handbook, Mangini doesn’t profile to be a full-time player. Mangini appears to be a role player with solid average and moderate power. BA’s comparison is Greg Dobbs. Nothing wrong with that. Defensively, he’s average. At the plate, he has a “professional approach with average,” power. Should see time as DH while Alex Liddi is manning third.

Pitchers
#7 Michael Pineda | RHP | D.o.B: 1-18-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): 9.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 139 1/3 IP | 3.36 ERA | 2.16 FIP (AA); 3.60 FIP (AAA) | 1.11 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 7.8 H/9 | .306 BABIP (AA); .290 BABIP (AAA)
Minor League Numbers:
77 innings at Double-A; 9.1 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 1.09 WHIP | 2.22 ERA
62 1/3 inning at Triple-A; 11.0 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 1.14 WHIP | 4.76 ERA
One of Keith Law’s favorite pitchers during the course of the 2010 season. Pineda surprised many scouts. He did allow more runs to cross the plate in Triple-A but his strikeouts were slightly better while seeing an increase in walks. I ranked him number 15 in my Top 50 Fantasy Prospects due to the assumption that he wouldn’t pitch until June in the majors. You can read the full scouting report in the Scouting the Unknown article. Some more details on Pineda. He throws a 93 to 97 MPH fastball and can top out at 101 MPH. Slider was tighter in 2010 and his improved change-up. Mechanically he has a lot of motions and a “high-effort delivery.” With stellar control and a great strikeout rate, he should slot nicely in right behind Felix Hernandez as a number two starter.

#11 Dan Cortes | RHP | D.o.B: 3-4-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): 9.2 K/9 | 5.3 BB/9 | 96 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 3.83 FIP (AA); 3.59 FIP (AAA) | 1.53 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .308 BABIP (AA); .353 BABIP (AAA)
He threw five innings at MLB level during September and appears to be a high-risk, high-reward late innings reliever. Throws a 96 to 98 MPH fastball, a “hammer 12-to-6 curve” and a sharp slider with work in progress changeup. With command issues, a switch to the bullpen could occur. Beyond the control and command issues, Cortes has a lot of upside.

#17 (TEX) Blake Beavan | RHP | D.o.B: 1-17-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): 5.4 K/9 | 1.1 BB/9 | 168 1/3 IP | 3.90 ERA | 3.03 FIP (AA); 4.79 FIP (AAA) | 1.16 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 9.3 H/9 | .272 BABIP (AA); .352 BABIP (AAA)
Received in the Cliff Lee trade. Beavan is like vanilla ice cream, always solid, but never spectacular. He throws a 90 to 92 MPH fastball with heavy sink, a slider with good tilt, and an average-at-best changeup. Beavan projects as a number four or five starter.

Josh Lueke | RHP | D.o.B: 12-5-84 | Stats (A/AA/AAA): 13.4 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 63 IP | 1.86 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 6.9 H/9
Another member of the Cliff Lee Trade. Lueke has a serious legal past. The charges were reduced/pleaded down to false imprisonment with violence. Strictly speaking baseball, Lueke throws a 94 to 98 MPH fastball, a splitter that “falls off the table,” and a plus slider. He’s going to pitch in the bullpen long term. With career rates of 11.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 177 2/3 innings, Lueke could be a worth-owning-in-fantasy middle reliever.

#13 Mauricio Robles | LHP | D.o.B: 3-5-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): 9.8 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 142 IP | 3.99 ERA | 3.74 FIP (AA); 3.84 FIP (AAA) | 1.35 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .305 BABIP (AA); .258 BABIP (AAA)
Part of the Jarrod Washburn trade in 2009, Robles throws a 91 to 95 MPH fastball along with the best changeup in the Mariners farm system. His curveball has improved but still inconsistent. Struggles with control. Ceiling is a solid number three starter. With 28 innings at Triple-A in 2010, I expect Robles to return to Triple-A and see a mid-season call up.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#9 Nick Franklin | SS/2B | D.o.B: 3-2-91 | Stats (A): .281/.351/.485 | 513 AB | 52 XBH | 23 Hr | .204 ISO | 25/10 SB/CS | 123:50 K:BB | .328 BABIP
Defense at short is average at best and projects long-term at second due to fringe-average arm. Above-average bat speed, swings with good leverage. Swings hard and this leads to a long swing at times. Is a switch hitter, but hits better from the right side. Has average speed.

#21 (TOR) Joherymn Chavez | RF | D.o.B: 1-26-89 | Stats (A+): .315/.387/.577 | 534 AB | 69 XBH | 32 Hr | .262 ISO | 6/9 SB/CS | 131:52 K:BB | .364 BABIP
Received in the Brandon Morrow trade. His numbers are inflated due to an extreme hitters home ballpark (23 of 32 home runs were hit at home – High Desert). Has power to all fields; overall has above average power. Concerns over strikeouts, but in comparison to other prospects mentioned previously, his strikeouts are more under control. Plays decent defense but is a below-average runner with a strong arm. Mentally, scouts praise his ability to handle the ups-and-downs of the season. He made a change to his swing to eliminate a loop and tendency to chop down on the ball which allowed him to turn on inside pitches and tap into his above-average raw power according to Baseball America (2011). His future rests on his performance in 2011 at Double-A.

#28 Rick Poythress | 1B/3B | D.o.B: 8-11-87 | Stats (A+): .315/.381/.580 | 476 AB | 64 XBH | 31 Hr | .265 ISO | 3/2 SB/CS | 100:52 K:BB | .334 BABIP
Swing is built for line-drives and moderate power. With a focus on pulling, scouts believe Poythress could be a “masher.” Has solid at-bats, a fine strikeout-to-walk ratio and plays decent defense at third but projects as a first baseman. Although he played in the same environment as Joherymn Chavez, Poythress slashed .291/.346/.581 on the road compared to .339/.413/.579 at home. He is old for the level of play, but could rise fast if he plays well at Double-A in 2011.

Vincent Catricala | 1B/3B | D.o.B: 10-31-88 | Stats (A): .302/.386/.488 | 496 AB | 58 XBH | 17 Hr | .186 ISO | 7/3 SB/CS | 112:56 K:BB | .356 BABIP
John Sickels claim he is a worthy of a sleeper alert. His age would lead one to believe otherwise. Catricala looks to start the 2011 season at High-A High Desert were numbers are inflated. If he has a strong showing next year, he’ll start to raise a few eyebrows like Joherymn Chavez did this year.

By request of commentator Adam, Seattle’s Carlos Peguero is going to be detailed, along with Houston’s Jordan Lyles. With June 1st just around the corner, be ready to jump on a few players bandwagons if there is any space left – I know my leagues have been pushing women and children off the cart since draft day. Better hurry before the the “putting the wagon before the horses” comments are made with 20/20 hindsight. Oh, and Hellickson just dominated the Red Sox Triple-A affiliate, and Brett Wallace is starting to get pimped by writers, and Strasburg just had his “roughest” start giving up five hits, two runs – one earned – in five innings.

Jordan Lyles | RHP-SP | Houston Astros | DOB: 10-19-90 | 6′ 4” | 185 lbs | B/T: R/R | 2008 Supplemental pick H.S. | HOU #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America 2010 | MiLB Player Page
The Cube: Control (76) | K-Rating (90) | Efficiency (84) | vs. Power (64)

I missed writing about Lyles in the winter during the Minor League Review series. However, I did post a rather detailed analysis about him in the comments section. Not too much has changed since then. Lyles was drafted out of a South Carolina high school in the supplemental round of the 2008 draft. Many didn’t think he would be swayed from his tentative commitment to play football for the Gamecocks. Needless to say, $930,000 sure makes a high school grad change their mind. With a lanky frame and plenty of room to fill into, scouts believe that he’ll add a couple more MPH onto his 89 to 94 mph fastball, which has late life. His changeup has the potential to be a plus pitch as it has great fade and excellent sink. Lyles’ breaking balls are a work in progress. His curveball is thrown in the mid-70′s during the early portion of an at-bat, and thrown between 77 to 80 mph when he is ahead in the count. This makes his first offering a show-me pitch and the latter an out-pitch. His arm action, pitching motion and delivery are all smooth, clean and can be defined as a classic pitching form. Here is how he’s performed during his minor league career:

2010 Stats: 7.4 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 57 IP | 3.00 ERA | ~3.37 FIP | 1.09 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .286 BABIP | 46.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 40.0 FB% | 5.9 Hr/FB
Career Stats: 9.9 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 257 IP | 3.40 ERA | ~3.03 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 8.2 H/9 | .328 BABIP | 44.3 GB% | 18.2 LD% | 35.2 FB%

I think John Sickels said it best, “Lyles is better than anyone expected, [especially] since everyone thought he’d go to South Carolina to play football.” Baseball America in 2009 was very cautious in his assessment, saying that his breaking ball has decent “rotation and shape,” he has trouble keeping his fastball down in the zone, and he removed a cutter from his selection of pitches. Good thing that 2009 was his breakout year. Baseball America 2010 sang his praises as he dominated the South Atlantic League with 167 strikeouts in 145 innings. The only negative was that his “breaking ball will determine his ceiling.” If you believe reports, he has a ceiling of a number two starter and a baseline of a number three starter. I’d say the Astros have a pretty good prospect on their hands.

A few things to denote when looking at his 2010 stats. He pitches in a park that is conducive to hitting home runs but suppresses other hitting stats. With that said, his Home ERA is 3.55 while allowing three home runs in 25 1/3 IP versus his 2.56 ERA on the Road and one home run in 31 2/3 IP. Furthermore, he has pitched fair better in night games this year (be wary of the small sample size). As with most pitchers, he pitches substantially better without runners on base. Lastly, he has been extremely tough on lefties to date. Lefties are hitting only .194 with no homers and a 1.91 ERA while righties are hitting .266 with four homers and a 4.01 ERA. In all dynasty leagues, he should be owned. In one year leagues, monitor towards the end of the year. The Astros have no reason to rush him through his development. They aren’t going to be winning for a long time.

Carlos Peguero | RF | DOB: 2-22-87 | 6′ 5” | 210 lbs | B/T: L/L | Signed from Dominican Republic-2005 | Not ranked in Baseball America 2010 | MiLB Player Page
The Cube: Power (89) | Batting (56) | Speed (69) | Contact (6) | Patience (21)

Who is that name below Mike Stanton on the minor league home run leader board? That would be Carlos Peguero (as of 5-22-10), right fielder for the Seattle Mariners. Interestingly, Baseball America (2010) chose not to rank him (this was prior to the Cliff Lee trade, and I would like to think he would be ranked in the low twenties for the Mariners after that trade), after ranking him 11th prior to the 2009 season. During this 2009 season, he hit .271/.335/.560 (491 AB) with 66 extra base hits of which 31 were home runs. Two things to note, his home field in 2009 was High Desert in the California League where his home field was the best hitters’ park in the league (followed by Lancaster – Houston’s affiliate). His Home/Away slash line you ask? Home: .302/.384/.671; Away: .233/.280/.439. It’s also important to note that he struck out 172 times (32.2 K%) with only 42 walks. On the plus side, the walks were the most he has ever had in a season.

All right, so I did this backwards. Peguero has a tremendous amount of power and strength. He was actually voted the most powerful hitter in the Mariners farm system prior to the 2009 season, even over Greg Halman. Defensively, his arm is about average and he is a “good runner” in both the field and on the bases – just not stealing bases. What he lacks is a patient hitting approach. He has a “swing-from-the-heels,” and a “first pitch swing” disease that he shares with Delmon Young. With an all-out approach, he has produced a 7:1 K:BB in his career prior to the 2010 season. How is his 2010 season faring?

2010 Stats: .313/.394/.572 | 166 AB | 19 XBH | 12 Hr | .259 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 48:18 K:BB | .377 BABIP | 39.0 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Career Stats: .280/.331/.518 | 1552 AB | 88 2B | 31 3B | 73 Hr | .238 ISO | 18/19 SB/CS | 496:101 K:BB | .366 BABIP | 44.3 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 41.3 FB%

The power is still there, the poor stealing percentage is still rearing its ugly head, and the strikeout rate is still concerning but the walks are improving. When Sickels said, “Adapt or die [in Double-A].” Peguero is.  Slowly, like Mike Stanton, learning how to take a walk. It’s a process that takes time, and at least he’s showing improvement. His walk rate is roughly 10 percent, but his strikeout rate is roughly 28 to 29 percent. Better than last year, but nothing to write home about. However you want to dice Peguero’s stats this is for certain, the power is evident, but his slash line has been bolstered by a hitter friendly environment (he played in the California League for two season hitting 43 homers in total at that level) and a high BABIP (.366 for his career).

Like Stanton, I believe Peguero should probably play a few weeks at Triple-A to face more experienced pitching. Not necessarily better pitchers, but pitchers who know what they are doing and have been around the block a few times. Also, Seattle’s Triple-A home park is a pitchers’ haven but the PCL is not. If I was forced to make a play comparison, it would be a less powerful and patient Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, Mike Stanton or a Chris Davis look-a-like. To be honest, I don’t want to peg him as any of those guys until he plays a full season at Double-A or a partial at Double-A and Triple-A in the same season. In really deep dynasty leagues, he’s worth grabbing and stashing for a cheap price. Or if you’re savvy, ride the hype and trade him for a “better” prospect and by “better” I mean a prospect that is more of a lock for the majors.

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.