Fantasy Baseball Advice

Just drafted in my ‘pert 5×5 15 team league that was organized by RotoRob. I drafted 13th. Peavy was just taken and I took Pujols. I asked for comments. One comment was, “BALLSY,” another was, “I was gonna if you didn’t,” another was, “…A first rounder has to be no worries.” Pujols? Question marks? Well, I got him. Anyway, here’s the rest of my team:

1.      (13)      Albert Pujols
2.     (18)     Carlos Lee
3.     (43)     Troy Tulowitzki
4.     (48)     Nick Markakis
5.     (73)     Aaron Harang
6.     (78)     Jeff Francoeur
7.     (103)     Rich Hill
8.     (108)     Francisco Cordero
9.     (133)     Yunel Escobar
10.     (138)     Chad Cordero
11.     (163)     Corey Patterson
12.     (168)     Adam Wainwright
13.     (193)     Kerry Wood
14.     (198)     Kevin Kouzmanoff
15.     (223)     Carlos Ruiz
16.     (228)     Mike Jacobs
17.     (253)     Edison Vólquez
18.     (258)     Scot Shields
19.     (283)     Melky Cabrera
20.     (288)     Brian Fuentes
21.     (313)     Chuck James
22.     (318)     Jon Rauch
23.     (343)     Tom Gordon

These notes were jotted down during the draft. Cause that’s how I do:

1. I’m taking Pujols because I have balls. And I’m stupid.

4. Nick Markakis – The Greek God of Roto may just end up on every one of my teams and I’m not complaining. He’s going 30/20 and I’m going to douse myself in Ouza in October. Some schmohawks I didn’t want that went in this round: Mauer, Roberts, Byrnes, Kinsler (I like Kinsler but not this high) and Carlos Guillen.

5. I really need a pitcher. Please let Haren fall to me. Nope, just taken. Okay, come on Harang… Come to Papa. I don’t care if Dusty is gonna throw you out there for the twelth inning of a tie game…. Damn, it’s a pitching run and I don’t know if Harang’s falling to me…Got him. Now I don’t feel so good about it. Oh, well. Now I need another bat.

6. Just took Francouer and was seriously contemplating Josh Hamilton. Guess who got taken right after Francouer? Farkin’ hey. Oh, well. I think Hamilton is riskier than Franceour. Besides, he goes by Frenchy and he hit a crapload of doubles (40) last year.

7. I’m taking a 2nd basemen, unless Weeks, Kent and Johnson are still on the board. Then I’m taking a closer. BTW, there’s been very few closers taken. Guess everyone’s reading Matthew Berry. That’s sad. As I write that someone takes Lidge. I like Lidge. This is too high. Then Saito. Okay, here’s the closer run I heard about on ESPN messageboards. All the 2nd basemen are still on the board and I’m not folding to the closer run. Watch me zig while everyone else is zagging. Rich Hill!

8. Ok, I have to take a closer now. Otherwise, I’m punting.F-Cord. Eh. Nothing else to say. First pick of mine that I’m not crazy about, but I just couldn’t take Hoffman. He enters to Hell’s Bells, that was popular when Tim from RotoRob was young. Tim’s old. From what I hear. I don’t know.

9. Okay, really need a 2nd baseman now. Fo reals. Not to mention, my team is slow. I think I’m gonna reach for Yunel cause I don’t trust Matsui with his anus problems. Okay, that was a severe reach on my part, but I needed a 2nd baseman and Kent’s not doing it for this team I’m building.

10. And now I have both Cordero brothers and Hoffman’s still on the board. And as I type that, Hoffman’s gone.

12. I have a feeling I’m getting Wainwright on this team too. Hmmm… Maybe the Cards will be good this year. Yeah, I don’t believe that either. But got him.

13. In honor of IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, I took Kerry Wood. You’re welcome.

14. BTW, I really need a 3rd baseman. (BTW II, Everyone filled up on 3rd base so I was able to hold off for a long time.) It’s important to keep an eye on every other team’s needs. Okay, school’s out.

15. Guess who’s coming next? If Ruiz is there, he’s mine. Oddly enough, Varitek is still on the board again. And I’m not taking him again.

16. And I got Mike Jacobs again. Okay, I’m done with hitting for a little while. Unless someone really falls.

17. Just looked at who is left out of the starters. Well… They are saying good things about Volquez, right? Pickins’ are slim. It’s between Garza, Marcum and Volquez. Gonna have to take the upside this late. Wow, I’m going to be watching a lot of Reds games this year. Some picks I liked this round: Accardo, Matt Diaz, Franklin Gutierrez, JD Drew and my pick. Some picks I didn’t like: Colby Rasmus and Homer Bailey.

18. I was between Okajima, Fuentes and Shields and I went for the track record. Not sure I don’t want this pick back. But Zumaya and Arroyo went right before him and I like my pick better than those two. Now I’m praying Manny Parra gets back to me. Wow, that was quick. Two picks later he went.

19. I was between Marcum and Melky. I really needed a starter but Melky was falling too far. Wouldn’t you know it, Marcum gets taken right after Melky.

22. I was between Shawn Hill and Jon Rauch. Briefly considered how awful it must be to be a Nats fan then went with Rauch.

23. All done in 2 hours. Phew, this league went really fast. Actually, thank God it’s over because I had to take Tom Gordon with my last pick. Well, I didn’t have to, but he is closing in Lidge’s absence. So maybe I can vulture some saves in the beginning of the year. It was between him and… I’m not saying because I might want to grab him off of waivers.

Overall thoughts:

This team feels really solid if my projections come to fruition. Unfortunately, I have a lot riding on Pujols’s elbow. I need 100/30/100 from him otherwise I might be scrambling. So what do you think of my team?

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

Yesterday, we went over our top ten here. Today, we’ll go from 11 thru 20. Usually in the first round you can’t go too wrong, but your fantasy team can be hurt with your second choice, depending on where you draft (and I don’t mean Afghanistan as opposed to Virginia). I’ve seen people reach in the 2nd round and it has hurt them. You want as safe as a pick as possible. Only once in the next ten do I go out on a bit of a limb, but we’ll get to that. Without further ado:

11. Jimmy Rollins – You’re thinking right now, “I wish Jimmy Rollins would be there at the 11th pick, but he won’t.” Let’s not forget his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290

12. Ryan Howard – If you took Prince Fielder with your number one pick, you may want to look slightly down the list, but, then again, I would strongly consider having Fielder and Howard on the same team, especially if poundage is a category. Projections: 100/50/140/.275

13. Grady Sizemore – According to Indians’ TV commericals, the Ladies love Grady. Well, you will too, if you can grab him here. He’s about to have a season that will push him into the top ten next year. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30

14. Carl Crawford – He never hit 25 home runs in a season, but he’s still only going to be 27 for 2008. Obviously, you’re coupling this pick with your first round pick, so if you took Jose Reyes in the first round and Crawford is still on the board, you need to pass him up or trade him immediately. But if you took Prince Fielder or Howard, then take Crawford. Projections: 105/15/85/.305/50

15. Johan Santana – I struggled with where to place Santana and I ended up placing him here because I wouldn’t draft him and someone else will before me. So, he’ll probably go sooner than this, but I don’t want him. Not that I think he’ll be bad or that I think he’ll be on the Twins at the start of the season and have trade rumors swirling around him for half the season. I don’t. I just think it’s very important to build around offense early, but that’ll have to wait for another post. Projections (these are likely to change depending on where he ends up in a trade): 18-9/240/3.10/1.06

16. Alfonso Soriano – He’s now 32 in Latin years, which means he’s anywhere from 32 to 40. He slowed down a lot last year and he already has the contract that can keep him in coke and whores for the rest of his life. The years of 30/30 are probably behind him. 115/35/75/.280/20

17. Carlos Lee – El Caballo has put up solid numbers year in and out. He slowed down a bit last year with his lowest steal total since ’02, so that may be a harbinger of things to come, but you want a steady performer in the 2nd round, the horse is your man. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7

18. Alexis Rios – You wanted the limb; here I am out on it. He’ll be 27 in ‘08 and he’s headed for the first round in ‘09. This may feel like you’re reaching, but trust me, you will not be disappointed. You know what you think Carlos Beltran will do? Well, Rios is about to do it. Get him before one of your leaguemates. Projections: 120/32/110/.300/25

19. Vladimir Guerrero – Just back from his third tour of ‘Nam and his knees have never been worse. He’s got enough natural ability that he’ll still be valuable. Just don’t expect steals anymore. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3

20. David Ortiz –The knee may be a thing of the past, but something else might just pop up because he has a body type that doesn’t age well. If you were to pass him by for this reason and his eligibility concerns, I would understand. Projections: 115/40/120/.310

After 20 – Many players, obviously, but notably…

Ryan Braun – He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun’s) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

Problems with righties could be a problem. Not a good pitching side to struggle against. I’m not saying he will be dreadful; I’m saying he may have his struggles. In the 2nd round, you don’t want to risk it.

1. Matt Holliday
.340/120/36/137/11
I had him on every team. I’m not prescient. Not Nostradamus. Not even Ms. Cleo. Frankly, I’m more surprised Schwarzenegger is the governor of California than I am about Holliday’s season. Ten years ago, you wouldn’t have believed Schwarzenegger PLAYING the role of Governor. You would have said, “I liked the movie’s action effects, but Schwarzenegger playing the Governor was completely unbelievable. Eastwood I believe, Schwarzenegger I ain’t buying.” Anyway, Holliday was 27 and playing in Coors. Of course he was going to have a good year. I’ll cover next year in a future blog, but he will be overpriced next year. As someone who watched 500 of his almost 700 at-bats, he swings and misses a lot and doesn’t walk enough. You heard it here first. You’ll hear more in a future blog; I promise.

2. Magglio Ordonez
.363/117/28/139/4
Take a second and look at his average again. Um, WTF?! He never hit higher than .320 before. And that was 5 years ago. When you top your career high in average by forty points at age 33, you’re having one of those seasons where everything hit found a hole. I don’t like the Detroit sportscasters and dislike the city even more, so I didn’t watch a whole lot of Mags’ season, but I guarantee he was lucky. You just don’t hit 50 points above your career average without some luck. It’s just not possible. Let’s move on before my head explodes.

3. Ichiro Suzuki
.351/111/6/68/37
I contemplated writing just Ichiro for his name, but why should I? Why does he get to go by only Ichiro? How does he even get away with putting only Ichiro on his jersey? Why hasn’t more been made of this? Can you picture the brouhaha (That’s right, I used the word brouhaha. Deal with it.) if Manny showed up at a game sporting a jersey that said Manny on the back? How about Pedro? Or just Torii? What happens if another Ichiro is picked up by Seattle? Does he start going by Ichiro S. or does one have only his last name put on his jersey and Ichiro keeps his first (which I think is his last name in Japan or something like that)? How does MLB allow this? Onto his season, Ichiro Suzuki hits for a high average every year, no surprise here. At some point, Ichiro Suzuki is not going to hit for that great of an average and I don’t want to be the last person standing on that Kotaka when it starts sinking, if you catch my drift.

4. Eric Byrnes
.286/103/21/83/50
Okay, sidenote: About three years ago, I pitched around Hollywood a baseball reality show, the theme of these meetings all came to the same conclusion. They liked the idea, but they needed a “name” attached. Someone that would generate interest in the baseball world, but, even more so, THEY needed someone that meant something to the average fan. We went after Steinbrenner. We got as far as his personal driver. That’s right, I have a connection to Steinbrenner’s driver! Anyway, since I’m writing this you can probably figure out, Steinbrenner passed. We couldn’t get any “name” interested. The one “name” we could get… Wait, for it… A fourth outfielder on the Oakland A’s, the one and only, Eric Byrnes. This time we passed. Eric Byrnes meant bupkus. Now he means, a 20/50 season. I’m happy for him. I’d still rather have Steinbrenner.

5. Carlos Lee
.303/93/32/119/10
I took thirteen years of Spanish and I can say two phrases, “Mi mama cocina en el bano.” And, “¡El Caballo!” You had to draft the horse pretty high so you probably were hoping for more, but he did what he could. Did the horse lose your season for you? Neigh.

6. Carl Crawford
.315/93/11/80/50
Dude, eleven homers really isn’t gonna cut it from a first round outfielder. Fifty steals or not. I’m sorry. Can we get twenty homers one of these years? Please. Stop teasing. It’s not nice. And, I’ll tell you what, you need to draft so home run heavy later in the draft to make up for 11 from your first outfielder, that you’re really not happy with Carl right now, are you? Of course you’re not. Pain felt.

7. Curtis Granderson
.302/122/23/74/26
That Curtis came in seventh in a deep position makes me think I don’t know a damn thing about FLB. I wouldn’t have picked up Granderson if he were on waivers. No joke. He should be an eight hole hitter on an NL team. Seriously, isn’t Granderson a middle class man’s Endy Chavez? His numbers are a testament as much to his natural skills as they are to Leyland’s foolhardy stubbornness in keeping Grandy a leadoff hitter.

8. Vladimir Guerrero
.324/89/27/125/2
“From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes,” says Rex Hudler 81 games a year. Sigh. At least it’s not Don Sutton. Matt Chico isn’t good, Sutton, I don’t care how many times you say it. Vlad looked like a surefire MVP for the first two months of the season. Then the tennis balls came off his walker and the opposing teams realized they should try challenging Kotchman.

9. Carlos Beltran
.276/93/33/112/23
You know someone that goes from very hot to very cold? Beltran, the Latin Jason Bay. Also, his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life, while covered many times before now, is uncanny and, frankly, distracting. I half expect him to hit a home run then celebrate by giving Delgado an open mouth kiss. All this aside, Beltran didn’t give you the numbers you might have hoped for when you drafted him in the second round, but he did give you exactly what you should have expected. His numbers are above-average, but not spectacular, year in and year out. Stop expecting more and you’ll no longer be disappointed. Now go kiss Delgado!

10. Nick Markakis
.300/97/23/112/18
Here you got some really nice value for where you had to draft him. In a league of mine, when Markakis started slow, I tried to pry him away from his owner. Didn’t happen. You know who I like a lot for next year… The Greek God of Roto! Opa! But that will wait for another column.

With outfield being such a deep position, there’s so many more to talk about from 11-20 that it might need its own column. For now, know that: Grady (11) wasn’t in the top ten, Abreu (12) wasn’t that bad from June on, Torii (13) cooled off in a major way after July, Dunn (14) didn’t have that many 0 for 20 stretches, Rios (15) is set to catapult into the top ten, Soriano (16) deserves his own column for how far he fell short of expectations, Rowand (17) um, it’s Aaron Rowand, he had a good year, you got lucky, Berkman (18) was covered in the 1st base column, B.J. Upton (19) also covered previously, and then, the one and only, Corey Hart (20). How can Corey Hart not have his own column? The guy has the same name as the guy who’s married to Pink!