Fantasy Baseball Advice

Mark Trumbo’s value can’t get any higher from its current level. He’s delivered a near 1.000 OPS in 2012 and it’s likely all downhill from here. His .381 BABIP is a red flag since it is well above his career average of .287. Despite his solid power, his HR/FB of 24% will also decrease, potentially below 20%. A walk rate of 8.8% is a nice improvement, but I am pessimistic about him maintaining this rate since he has struggled to walk his entire career. I see a similar line to 2011 for the rest of this season, with .290/.480/.770 as a reasonable expectation. That’s a horrific line for a first baseman, but if he qualifies as a third baseman in your league, then that moves him into Pedro Alvarez and Chris Davis territory. Is that useful? It provides you some cheap power, but could really hurt your OPS at times. There’s also more downside since his defense is atrocious and the Angels don’t have room to play everybody, so he could get benched with some frequency.

Mike Moustakas is showing why he was the Greek God of Potential. After struggling last year, Zeustakas is lighting up pitchers this season. The great thing about him is that I do not see any obvious red flags. His BABIP will come down a little, but he is not benefiting from any heavenly luck. It would be nice to see him walk more and decrease his swinging strike rate, and I expect this to occur as he better adjusts to major league pitching. His HR/FB of 10.4% is likely the baseline for what to expect this season because he displayed decent power throughout the minor leagues. For the rest of 2012, a .340/.460/.800 line should be attainable, with upside from there. In keeper leagues, he’s a fantastic third baseman to have and I’d compare him to Ryan Zimmerman, who Moustakas may have a higher OPS than as soon as this year.

Mark Teixeira’s 2012 season was predicted in the Mayan calendar. An OPS below .700 is not going to continue, but he’s far from his elite levels of several years ago. His current .229 BABIP would typically suggest that he’s been unlucky, yet his BABIP has been decreasing for a long time: .342 in 2007, .316 in 2008, .302 in 2009, .268 in 2010, and .239 in 2011. Yes, he still has power, as evidenced by his five home runs (aka LaHair’s total this month), but I believe low 30s homers is his ceiling rather than his floor. In OPS leagues, his value has been diminishing due to a declining OBP as well as a slugging percentage below his prior levels above .500. In fact, over the past couple seasons he’s hovered around an .840 OPS, which is eerily similar to Carlos Pena’s career OPS. If that wasn’t bad enough, Tex has been swinging at and making more contact with pitches outside the strike zone, which usually results in weaker contact. A line of .350/.490/.840 for the rest of the season could sadly be on the high end, unless he becomes more patient and drives the ball like he used to.

Ike Davis will turn around his triple slash line trouble. Ike D’s .188 BABIP has sabotaged his season, and it ranks last in the majors, after Bautista and Hosmer. This is likely the main reason why he’s been struggling. Yes, his walk rate has decreased and his strikeout rate has increased, but I think these factors are the result of him pressing as a reaction to his bad luck. Though he doesn’t yet have a long major league track record, his dominance of the minor leagues leads me to believe that he’s a sure shot to rebound. Now I’m not going to say he’ll meet Bill James’ 2012 projection of an .886 OPS, but he should at least reach an .800 OPS for the rest of the season. His 2010 line of .350/.440/.790 could be his floor, with upside for much more slugging if he’s able to successfully fight for his right to get lucky.

Kelly Johnson is going to continue his current pace for the rest of 2012. He’s had an interesting pattern of alternating good and bad years, by posting strong OPS years in 2008 and 2010 to contrast weak years in 2009 and 2011. Maybe it’s because this is an even year, but Johnson has decided to walk more than his career rate. Additionally, he’s swung at and made contact with less pitches outside the strike zone, further suggesting an increase in patience. Unfortunately, Kelly has retained his high strikeout rate from last year, which is a potential cause for concern. His HR/FB and BABIP will also decrease, but I don’t expect him to completely dismantle. 20 home runs appears to be a given and a .350/.410/.760 line is achievable for the rest of 2012.

Carlos Lee thinks it’s time to hit the old dusty trail. El Caballo is obviously over the hill but, despite being owned in many leagues, he is becoming unusable. The most significant sign of his decline is his HR/FB over the past few years: 16.4% in 2008, 10.5% in 2009, 9.5% in 2010, 7.7% 2011, and 4.5% in 2012. In addition, his speed is nonexistent at this point. Lee’s .750 OPS in 2012 is manageable for the rest of the season, but I’d expect something closer to .330/.390/.720. Not to beat a dead horse, but El Caballo is done. Somewhere, Khartoum weeps.

Todd Frazier went deep twice yesterday.  When asked the other day if Frazier would play, Dusty Baker said, “It could be (Miguel) Cairo.  I’ve got an idea what guys’ strengths and weaknesses are… We’ll see. It’s up to Frazier.   Okay, who switched out my mint toothpicks with splinters!  You know my T-picks kill the skunk breath!”  Todd Frazier is a damn fine specimen of underachieving-could-easily-be-achieving-if-he-starts-hitting prospect hitting nom-nom.  In the minors last year, he had 15 homers and 17 steals, year before 17/14, year before he helped pen Richard Marx’s foray into romance novels, “Hold Onto The Knights.”  What can’t he do!?  Not sure if that’s rhetorical, but I’ll answer.  I’m not sure he can hit for an average over .240 in the long run.  There’s a chance Rolen gets Wally Pipp’d even if he returns healthy and that ‘if’ is the size of Hasselhoff’s ego.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Aroldis Chapman – 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks.  ERA is at 0.00, WHIP is at 0.57.  Dusty Baker said yesterday that the plan is for Aroldis to start someday.  That reminds me of a sentence I read recently in Scientific American, “Because of natural evolution patterns, it’s conceivable that pigs will fly someday.”

Vance Worley – Placed on the DL.  Went from a match-ups pitcher who could get lit to having an inflamed elbow.  Call the fire department!

Clay Buchholz – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks to lower his ERA to 7.77.  He looked fine yesterday, but, no kidding, I can’t believe he’s still in the rotation.  Like for real, or “Pho Real” if we’re going by the name of my Vietnamese restaurant that I’m minority owner of.  Last time I write up a bucket list drunk.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Bobby Valentine said he’s not close to returning.  Red Sox fans exhaled.

Chase Utley – Yesterday, he took grounders.  Phillie fans inhaled.

Hiroki Kuroda – 5 IP, 7 ER.  Yankee fans burped.

Ivan Nova – Set for a bullpen session tomorrow.  Pop the champagne.  Super, Nova.

Fernando Rodney – Notched his 12th save and lowered his ERA to 0.48.  I’m guessing the Devil wouldn’t make any deals with him while he was on the Angels.

Carlos Ruiz – 2-for-4, 3 runs, 1 RBI and his 7th homer.  Hannah, so far and away the Phils best hitter so far, Hannah.  <–Almost palindrome!

Freddy Galvis – 2-for-4, with a run and an RBI.  He’s hitting near .400 over the last week and… nothing.  It’s good to see him hitting, but he could steal some bases (23 steals last year in the minors).  Somebody put Hot Stuff on his feet.

Alfonso Soriano – Before I even say it, I regret it.  I So-rue-iano.  Yet, he did hit his 2nd homer in as many games yesterday.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Hodgepadre!

Chase Headley – 2-for-3, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Truly a breakout year, which correlates to around 16 homers and a .265 average.  The mouth on the left side of the screen says, “Yawn.”  The mouth on the right side of the screen says, “stipating.”

Jose Valverde – Tigers are saying Valverde should be back by this weekend.  If you own Valverde, I’m not sure if that’s good news.  The Tigers are saying Benoit could see saves, but it might also go based on match-ups.  Benoit made me think of the WWF, which made me think of Words With Friends.  I’m surprised the World Wildlife Federation hasn’t made them change the name to Words With Pals or Words With Entertainment.

Austin Jackson – Left yesterday’s game with an abdominal strain.  He might get a precautionary MRI, and we know how well those turn out!

Carlos Quentin – Rehab assignment was shutdown as he needed a cortisone shot.  2008 called and said Carlos Quentin’s stats are being erased; they’re all lies.

Jason Bay – He’s about two weeks away from returning.  Yay.  Put the ‘Get Well Soon’ balloons on order.

Alex Presley – Has left the building.  He had the full-time job, but he Mr. Bungled it and is off to the minors.  Mr. Bungled it so bad the Pirates are turning to McLousy or Yamaico Navarro.  Navarro got the start yesterday and went 0-for-2, and was lifted for a pinch hitter.  In the minors, Navarro showed light power (10-ish homers) and light steals (12-ish).  He does have 3rd base eligibility in Yahoo and ESPN, but outside of leagues that only play Pirate players, I’d hold for now.  And in those leagues, who’s your 2nd draft pick?  Jose Tabata?  Do you reach for Hanrahan?

Brett Lawrie – Suspended only 4 games, but plans to appeal.  I’d love to hear the preliminary appeal discussion with his attorney.  Attorney talking to Lawrie, “We can either go with your frustration was stemming from the egregious strike calls made by Bill Miller.  Or we can go with a skinny guy in the front row was casting a shadow that made it look like there was a hat rack on the ground.”  Lawrie, “I think I can put a hashtag on that second reason.”  “Done and done!”

Colby Rasmus – 0-for-4 with 4 high fives to Bautista, Arencibia, Johnson and Encarnacion, who all homered.  I think Rasmus also worked in a fist pump to Thames, who doubled.

Kyle Drabek – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Yankees.  This is coming off a 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER effort vs. the Twins and 5 IP, 5 ER against the Angels, who just fired their hitting coach.  Kyle Drabek:  I Make Smart Money Look Stupid.

Wilson Betemit – 2-for-7 with his 6th homer.  Is Betemit available to teach Ryan Zimmerman how to hit?  Cause that would be helpful.

Omar Infante – 3-for-5 with two steals as he bats .336.  Omar’s coming yo!

Mike Minor – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Not sure if I’ve verbalized it, um, writing, but this Minor shizz has got to be off your team until further notice.  You know how they have obits written ahead of time for celebrities?  Atlanta reporters have the tweet “Mike Minors” ready to go.

Ubaldo Jimenez - 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks to lower his ERA to 5.09.  Matthew Berry likes him as a buy low.

Dustin Ackley – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 3rd homer.  Hey, his bats finally got back from Japan!

Michael Saunders – 2-for-3 with his 5th steal, which he dedicated to his dad, the Colonel.

Melky Cabrera – Scratched with a sore left toe.  He’s day-to-day, or at least that’s what the aliens told me who read his mind despite his best efforts to stop them.

Corey Hart – 1-for-3 with his 8th homer.  Surprised to see him in some comments as a guy people can pick up.  I’m assuming these leagues are shallow, but, as they said in 14th century China, assuming makes an ass outta of you and Ming.  To answer, yeah, he should be owned, especially now because he usually goes on tears.

Brian Dozier – 1-for-5, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer in four games, while hitting .286.  Okay, I’m talking him up solely because I dropped Cozart for Dozier.  Hopefully, things stay rozier.

Trevor Plouffe – 1-for-5 with his 2nd homer.  The Eskimos have a name for the sound of crap hitting the toilet water, it’s Plouffe.

Justin Morneau – He was activated from the DL and went 1-for-5.  It’s like he never left!

Ryan Doumit – To the DL for three weeks with a strained calf.  What an odd thing to find in a colander.

Josh Willingham – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 1 RBI as the Twins scored 11 runs.   My fact checking monkey tells me the Twins didn’t carry over this whole year’s worth of runs.

Felix Hernandez – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER vs. the Indians.  F-Her, you should be embarrassed.  Luckily, I didn’t use the thesaurus for synonyms for embarrassed.  The Native American Anti-Defamation League has enough to deal with.

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  I think he might be the unofficial winner of the most comments on whether or not people should pick him up.  Yeah, this Bud’s for you.

Carlos Lee – 3-for-4 with his 3rd homer, now hitting near .400 over the last week.  Ugh, first Alfonso Soriano, now Carlos Lee.  Kick me in the ass and call me Murray Chass.

Andy Dirks – 3-for-4, 2 runs and 1 RBI.  Hitting .370 out of the 2 hole.  Plouffe!

Eric Hosmer – 0-for-7.  Maybe he can work the count into something favorable then they can put in Mitch Maier.

Felipe Paulino – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He’s kinda put together three solid starts (his 2nd one vs. the White Sox was a bit of bad luck).  His K-rate has always been solid, but his walk rate losses sight of the strike zone sometimes.  So far, he’s been in control.  The 1-something ERA won’t stay there, but he could be what you thought you were getting from Filthy Sanchez this year (not what you actually got).

Krispie Young – Hit a grand slam in his rehab game.  It was shirts vs. I sold my shirt for blow.  *checking notes*  Nope, different type of rehab.

Albert Pujols – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer to tie Gordon Beckham for 217th best in baseball!

Adam LaRoche – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 7th homer.  LaRoche has 29 RBIs and is hitting .339.  Yesterday, Hosmer pooped twice.

Wilson Ramos – Going for ACL surgery in 2-3 weeks and won’t be back this year.  Bernie Williams, “I’d love to play my guitar at the opening of the ACL!”

Ian Desmond – 1-for-4 with his 5th homer.  He’s hitting around .330 over the last week with 2 steals.  Shine on you crazy Desmond!

Henry Rodriguez – Got the save yesterday even after Desmond E’d a guy onto base.  HanK-Rod still mowed them down, showing no signs of his recent failings.  I realized something watching him.  He’s Charlie Sheen in Major League (or real life).  His stuff is insane, and he can’t control it.

Michael Morse – Made throws yesterday for the first time in several weeks.  He said, “I haven’t been throwing, so it was kind of like a monkey riding a bike.”  That sounds awesome!  I wanna see him throwing through flaming hula hoops while balancing on a seal’s nose!  Please!

Andrew Bailey will need thumb surgery, according to one doctor.  He’s scheduled to get a second opinion today.  That second doctor’s gonna say, “The first doctor and I play golf and he only sent you to me to run up your doctor bills.  Of course you need surgery.”   My opinion is Bailey is always hurt and he’s gonna miss a few months.  When Bailey was first traded to the Sawx in the offseason, I even opined, “When Melancon went to the Sawx, I said, “The GM over in Beantown says Melancon is “capable of closing.”  In big market speak, that means he won’t be the closer.  Melancon is the stereotypical small market closer, big market set-up man.”  Prescient ain’t just a word you need a spell checker for.  It’s a state of mind!  Bailey will be absolutely fine as a closer when he’s healthy, which is to say maybe 4 of 6 months of the season if the Sawx are lucky.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I don’t just bring this up for the Bailey news, but I wanted to say again how the Sawx GM originally pegged Melancon as having closer potential.  Originally, I said he wasn’t a big market closer, but guess what y’all?  He’s a heck more of a big market closer than Aceves.  He has closer experience and that you can’t buy (legally outside of Canada).  The Sawx are saying Aceves could get saves.  I’m not sure how much I believe it.  If Melancon was out there in my leagues, I grabbed him too (as in, in addition to Aceves).  If Aceves does get the first couple of saves, he’ll need to be perfect to keep the job, i.e., vis-a-vis, ergo, Melancon could end up getting 25 saves even if he doesn’t get the first couple.  This shituation is fluid so put on some plastic bed sheets.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Frank Francisco – Went for an MRI on his knee yesterday.  Ah, the Mets and their injuries.  The Mets doctors originally thought Francisco was dealing with patella tendinitis — is that the pre-med Indian kid who lived in my freshman dorm?  Frank² had an ERA north of 5.50 in the spring and the publicity was, “Where’s his velocity?”  He thought he’d locate his electricity with tenacity, but kept ending up back at paucity, which left people grabbing Rauch in felicity, prior to her cutting her hair — the audacity!   Only issue is unless your league has a category for the number of things a pitcher can reach off a top shelf, Rauch may be useless.  Bobby Parnell, who I believe is the little black kid from the movie Role Models, could end up with the bulk of the saves.  Then there’s Ramon Ramirez, who insists you not call him Ram-Ram, not that there’s anything wrong with a little Ram-Ram… Basically, the Mets are a shizzshow closerousel that could get you sick to your stomach.  I grabbed Rauch in one league, Parnell in another league and think one of them will get the majority of the saves in April for the Mets.  Either could run with the job longer too.

Jason Bay – If he struggles in the season, the Mets said they could platoon him.  Not even joking here, but I think this the first bit of Mets front office news I’ve agreed with since they fired A.J. Mass from his Mr. Met job.

Sam Fuld – Out 4 to 5 months with wrist surgery.  Will give Fuld plenty of time to hunt wabbits.

Sean Marshall – Named Cincy closer.  I could’ve told you that last week, and I’m not even reading tea leaves, especially not chunky Betty Draper’s.

Aroldis Chapman – Will stay in the bullpen as a setup man for Marshall.  I wonder if Aroldis would’ve signed in Cincy if he would’ve known he’d be stuck in the bullpen for his whole career.  Coming from Cuba, he should’ve known he wasn’t going to get any say in the matter with the Reds.

Tyler Colvin – Someone grabbed Colvin in my NL-Only draft during the free round and everyone groaned.  Colvin is a whole lot of nothing right now, but prepare for Fowler to get benched a game here and there and Colvin to get a chance.  If he does well with those chances, Colvin will be a hot add everywhere.

Josh Beckett – Has a thumb injury, but shouldn’t miss his first start.  Beckett did go to Texas to get it checked out.  I’m guessing he didn’t hitchhike.

Carlos Lee – Ken Rosenthal reported that Lee can block trades to 14 teams this year.  With 18.5 million still going to Lee, 29 teams are hoping they’re one of the 14.

Dayan Viciedo – Hit a home run yesterday and finished with a .196 average.  Spring training numbers mean nothing, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this Cuban raftee sees an average around .200 this year.

Randall Delgado – Won the fifth rotation spot for the Braves.  As of right now, Delgado doesn’t look like he’s going to pitch well or past May 1st when Hudson returns.  Last year, he had an ERA of 2.83 in 7 games started, but a hideous K-rate, walk rate and xFIP.  I’m worried about his walk rate and K-rate dropping as he moves up to a new level.  Right now, I wouldn’t risk it outside of NL-Only leagues.

Tyler Pastornicky – Hey, the clergyman that Carmella made out with was named the Braves starting shortstop.  I went over my Pastornicky fantasy already.  I wrote it while being disappointed by the Worst Cooks in America finale.

Roger Bernadina – Nursing a right knee contusion, but should be fine for Opening Day.  Yesterday, in VinWins’ post about RCL trends, I was surprised to see Bernadina wasn’t drafted at all.  Not that I need to explain myself to you, but there’s gonna be a post later today from Rudy that is gonna blow your mind.  Let’s just say, just when you thought my mustache couldn’t get any fuller, it just did.

Jesus Montero – Was escorted off the field after getting beaned in the back of the helmet.  After the game, Wedge said he’s okay, it got him “in the fat part of the helmet.”  Then Kevin Smith started a Twitter campaign demanding helmets of any size are treated the same, then Michelle Obama started a helmet nutrition program and the fat helmet lost weight and wasn’t nearly as funny.

For those fantasy players who play in standard mixed leagues, the hot stove season is a time of excitement. These owners can just sit back and enjoy the player moves, secure in the knowledge that regardless of what happens there will not be a huge impact on gameplay. Sure some players will change jerseys, some jobs will be gained or lost because of moves, but by and large the player market remains the same.

Contrast that to fantasy owners in AL or NL-only leagues, who view the hot stove season with trepidation. They watch these same player moves closely, aware of the fact that superstars may become undraftable at the drop of a hat. Despite this risk, over the course of time these moves tend to balance out, with relatively equal numbers of players coming and going from each league. However, this season is different. To use a tired cliché, a “perfect storm” of destruction has afflicted the hitters of the National League. Similar to flipping a coin ten times and having it come up tails every time, seemingly every big ticket hitting item left the NL for greener pastures (and a ton of even greener cash).

No position was seemingly hit harder than the first base position in the National League. This position was traditionally held by perennial 1st round picks like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but both of those studs have packed their bags for the “other” league. Consequently, the position has understandably taken a huge hit in terms of talent. Fortunately, one superstar remains in the NL, one Joey Votto. In fact, Votto is the only player at his position drafted in the top 40. I would go so far as to say Votto is probably worth the #2 overall pick in such leagues (after Matt Kemp), because no position has a wider gap between the best and second best player than 1st base.

The fact that the second player on this list is Michael Morse should be very telling about the state of the position. However, that does not mean that your 1B position is “Votto or Bust.” Morse himself had a breakout season last year, and fellow youngsters Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman join him in the tier below Votto. I’d be perfectly happy starting any of these guys for my NL-only squads, especially at ADPs ranging from 50-70, but perceived scarcity may drive their price higher than I’m willing to pay.

As for the individual players here, who you will pick comes down to personal preference and team needs. Goldschmidt has the most raw power of the bunch, but his swing also probably has the most holes. Freeman, on the other hand, is a great contact hitter, but he may not surpass his 21 home runs from 2011 until he puts more meat on his rather lanky frame. Morse is a bit of a mystery, showing slightly above average power in a long minor league career, but when given the chance at the major league level he produced a nifty 31 long balls in 2011. He’s first on the list in ADP, but I see a higher ceiling with the other two guys. Again, just a matter of personal preference.

If high-risk high-reward veterans are more your speed than the youngsters above, then Ryan Howard and Ike Davis are your answer. Both face uncertain 2012 statuses due to ankle injuries (though Howard’s outlook is considerably bleaker than Davis’s), and both are coming at a substantial discount from their full health prices. Recall that Howard has been a power stalwart at his position for nearly a decade, and that Ike Davis had a nice 2010 and was off to a great start in 2011 before the Mets training staff struck him down with a bum ankle. You would do well to have insurance making one of these picks, but it could well win you a league if the cards break just right.

If you miss out on the above candidates, uninspiring veterans seem to be the rule. Guys like Adam LaRoche, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, James Loney, Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff and Gaby Sanchez.  Some of these guys may well outproduce players I have listed above, but it is a matter of ceiling and floor that lands them here. Berkman had a great 2011, but at his age fall off the cliff risk is a real possibility, lowering the floor for me. Even Gaby Sanchez, the guy from this group that I would probably like the most, has a pretty low ceiling, albeit with a higher floor.

This list has brought us past the top 12 1st baseman, so you’ve probably already seen the first baseman you will end up starting. Admit it, it’s not as bleak as you thought it would be, is it? That is not, however, to say that you will be happy with who you end up with. So what are you going to do if you find yourself staring down the barrel of James Loney? The answer lies on the final names on our list- guys like Mat Gamel, Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo. Gamel, seemingly out of chances in 2011, has been given one more chance to prove that he is not a bust as a top prospect. Rizzo and Belt flopped in their major league debuts, but I am not ready to take the bloom off the rose of these prospects. Belt’s 20-20 potential at 1B is very real and very rare indeed, while Rizzo’s power definitely plays now that he has left Petco for Wrigley. I would not necessarily start one of these guys, but I like them as late round picks in redraft leagues that have upside to pan out. Finally, a more creative manager may try to handcuff one of the injury prone guys above and hope for a setback.

I am not going to sugar coat it, losing Fielder and Pujols has left a huge gap in talent and turned it into a scarce position. Take consolation in the fact that every team is in the same boat in this deflated market. If you are lucky enough to land Votto, then smile and know that you are ahead of the game. If not, then 1st base may indeed prove an adventure. However, there’s nothing more satisfying than coming out on top of a challenging position- it’s part of why we play the game. Let’s just hope we all fare better than George Clooney in navigating this perfect storm.

I’m no Nostradumbass, but I’m telling you there’s not going to be a whole lot of greatness coming out of this post.  We’re Cousteau deep right now.  The first tier have some nice flyers that you may drop after a week or so and the other schmohawks in this post are, well, schmohawks.  So all the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings are found under yonder and we’re moving onto pitchers next.  That should excite you, you special person you.  C’mon, let me pinch your cheeks.  I didn’t say your face cheeks.  Hey now!  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Alex Presley – This tier started in the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball post.  This tier goes from here until Mitch Moreland.  I called this tier, “You may get a top 20 outfielder from any of these guys.  Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.”  I already went over my Alex Presley fantasy.  I wrote it while suing Supercuts for giving me simply a “great cut.”  2012 Projections:  80/10/60/.270/20

62. Mike Carp -  I sorta mentioned this in the top 60 outfielder post, but a big problem we’re having right now is there are some real interesting upside gambles on some really terrible teams.  Can someone pull a fast one and switch Carp with Trout?  For the job, I propose Tim Salmon.  Most of the schmohawks in this tier look like they Revere, Ben.  At least with Carp, he’s giving you power, though, maybe nothing else.  2012 Projections:  55/21/70/.260/3

63. Chris Heisey – I like Chris Heisey a lot lot.  Maybe too much, since he plays for Dusty Baker who insists on putting the horns to at least one young player.  Heisey is either a righty who can’t hit lefties or a righty who hasn’t been given a fair shake to hit lefties.  I think it’s the former, but if it’s the latter then you could have a nice get with Heisey.  With his K-rates, there’s a very real chance he hits .240, but he could also hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases.  There’s also the whole Ryan Ludwick issue.  But Baker wouldn’t really play him over Heisey, would he?  Um, well, it’s a late flyer.  2012 Projections:  50/17/65/.250/10

64. Dayan Viciedo – Having a hard time seeing past his K-rate and his lack of major league experience, but know someone who isn’t having a hard time with those things?  Bill James.  His projections for Viciedo are 21/3/.275.  Viciedo had a .186 average vs. righties last year, but, as I tell girlfriends, that’s just a small sample size.  He has destroyed minor league pitching and he’s only a Latin 22.  2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.260/3

65. Michael Brantley – Some crazy speed in the minors, but almost 500 plate appearances last year translated to the majors about as well as French comedy translates here.  He’s like the American League version of Dexter Fowler (or the outfield’s Alcides Escobar, if that works better for you).  Brantley stole 46 bases in Triple-A in 2009.  Don’t make me hire Davey Lopes to coach you.  Just run.  2012 Projections:  60/6/50/.275/20

66. Josh Reddick – I already went over my Josh Reddick fantasy when he was traded. I did it like this, I did it like that. I did it with a Wiffle ball bat. 2012 Projections: 75/15/85/.260/10

67. Jon Jay – There’s been some speculation that The Federalist may not be the starting center fielder for the Cardinals.  La Russa’s Feathered Hair, “Hey, you don’t have me to kick around anymore!  That’s on Matheny.”  Until Allen Craig returns from surgery, Jon Jay should book that job, so there’s no reason to ask, why do the righteous suffer?  2012 Projections:  50/12/40/.280/10

68. Alejandro De Aza – Last year in Triple-A, he had 9 homers, 22 steals and hit .322 in 99 games.  He was also 27 years old.  Sounds Quad-A-ey (which is not a legal word for Words With Friends; I’ve tried).  But, in only 171 plate appearances in the major leagues, he had 4 homers and 12 steals.  That’s 12/30 over the course of a full season.  Too bad they outlawed full seasons after Ripken retired.   Could give De Aza a shot in March and when he’s no longer worth owning, you can tell your friends you just did the Alejandrop.  Don’t get sad!  Imaginary friends work too!  2012 Projections:  60/7/30/.270/20

69. John Mayberry – Last year, at the age of 27, he finally saw significant time in the major leagues.  He also kept his K-rate fairly manageable.  Maybe he was learning to walk again.  Damn, that Foo Fighters song is annoyingly catchy.  If Clarence were to show Ryan Howard what life would’ve been like without him, John Mayberry may have had a career.  While Ryan Howard is learning to walk again — ugh, so catchy — Mayberry should be starting somewhere.  2012 Projections:  40/18/55/.250/10 in 400 ABs.

70. Jordan Schafer – I almost avoided putting any Astros hitters into any favorable ranking tiers.  Oh, well.  Here’s one, and even if you’re drafting purely on Zimmermania, Jordan Schafer is barely registering above yawnstipating.  Person who just stumbled on Razzball, “Zimmermania?  Yawnstipating?  What is this mustachioed fool talking about?”  Schafer isn’t much more than SAGNOF (Again, huh?!) but he hit as many as 10 homers in Double-A one year so maybe he can do something without the pressure of the pennant race.  (Astros fan, “Oh, just wait until 2028 for us to come on!  Assuming all other major leagues team fall to the Plague of 2027.”)  Dang, two Astros zings in one post.  Hey, one zing for each of their fans.  2012 Projections:  75/5/35/.245/25

71. Mitch Moreland – Was surprised to see he didn’t make my top 20 1st basemen post.  Not sure what I was thinking.  And if I don’t know, who’s gonna?  What I might’ve been thinking was he’s already light on power and this offseason he had wrist surgery, which is not a recipe for more power as the Barefoot Contessa would tell you.  2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.275/3

72. Angel Pagan – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Span.   I call this tier, “It’s hard for me to tell you to draft these guys, because, if things work out as planned, I won’t.  But one of them might be more valuable than I’m ranking them, and, if you know which one, you’re a witch and that scares me.”  You know what’s weird?  Pagan and Torres seem to always be linked in the rankings.  You’re like, “They’re the same person!”  But they were traded for each other.  How do you figure that?  Weird, right?  Yeah, I’m smart.  2012 Projections:  75/6/40/.280/27

73. Andres Torres – I could tell you to just look 1/8th of an inch above, but that’s lazy talk!  *thinking*  Actually, just look above.  Thanks!  2012 Projections:  70/5/40/.265/24

74. Seth Smith – The Lisper’s Nightmare will finally get to start without having to look over his shoulder.  And it’s now in Oakland, which is yet another pitchers’ park that ends in “co.”   Thit!  2012 Projections:  55/15/70/.275/10

75. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

76. Josh Willingham – I can hear someone giving me guff for putting The Other White Meat this low in the rankings, but really he’s the first guy you drop when you want to pick up a hot hitter.  Admit it at least to yourself.  Willingham is the same as every other hot schmotato Luke Scott-Ty Wigginton clone that gets hot for a few weeks.  2012 Projections:  65/22/80/.250/3

77. Jason Kubel – I fought with myself over whether to put Kubel or Willingham first in these rankings.  Finally, I flipped my Morneau voodoo doll and it came up heads, which either meant Willingham should be ranked first or another year of Morneau head trauma.  I’ll let you decide.  2012 Projections:  60/20/75/.260

78. Ben Revere – Span and Revere seem like another two guys that are forever linked.  You say, “Same player!  Move on!”  But how do you explain that they play on the same team?  Still weird!  2012 Projections:  70/1/35/.280/30

79. Denard Span – Again, if I were going to be lazy– Eh, just look above.  2012 Projections:  65/4/55/.280/25

80. Carlos Lee – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “In less than 7 years, these guys will receive just over 5% of the Hall of Fame vote and barely stay on the ballot for one more year.”  Hey, do the Astros a favor, Chuck Lee, and shut em’ down.  2012 Projections:  60/20/80/.265/3

80 1/8. Grady Sizemore – Sizemore is only 29 years old and only three years removed from a 33/38 season.  But, oh, what a three year span that was.  He took naked photos of himself and his career took the exact inverse (inter)course of Kim Kardashian’s.  Turned out Tom Sizemore wasn’t the only Sizemore with a joint problem and Grady is starting to show the wear and tear of an 80-year-old man like his first name makes him sound.  With a 28.8% K-rate and 4 steals in the last two years, there’s really no reason to believe in Sizemore, but if you want to believe in miracles.  2012 Projections:  75/17/60/.245/5

80 1/4. Jason Bay – Member the days when Jason Bay was good?  We wore our hair longer then.  Well, you had hair.  We had some laughs!  Crazy times!  2012 Projections:  60/20/65/.250/8

80 what/fraction-is-this? Aubrey Huff – For almost his entire career, he’s alternated between good years and bad years.  If you think that’s a reason why he’s going to be good in 2012, I’ll tell you it’s hooey.  Grey, “It’s hooey.”  See?  2012 Projections:  50/18/65/.255/3

80 1/2. Alfonso Soriano – About three years ago, Soriano turned 47 years old and he just hasn’t looked the same.  “Get outta here you little brats, grandpa’s gotta go limp around the outfield!  Geez, Vlad’s got it so easy with the DH.”  That’s Alfonso in the dugout babysitting Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto.  2012 Projections: 45/18/60/.240/3

80 3/4. Bobby Abreu – He shouldn’t even be ranked.  He’s coasting on good vibes and bad farts.*  (*That’s my saying, but use it so it catches on.  Your mother at dinner, “What do you think of that Ashton Kutcher?”  You, “He’s coasting on good vibes and bad farts.”  See?  It’s easy to use.)  2012 Projections:  60/10/65/.250/15