Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.

J.J. Hardy wasn’t appreciated by the Brewers earlier this year — I made all the key outs!  I don’t see Ryan Braun doing that! — Well, Hardy will return to the Brewers on Tuesday to pick up where he left off.  Hope he remembers to bring his magic bats with him.  This one here, this one is my runners in scoring position batting .198 bat. Too bad Alcides couldn’t step up in the two plus weeks he had the gig to himself.  Guess he missed the day in If You Have Speed Steal A Damn Base class when they went over if you have speed steal a damn base.  In fact, there’s only one day of class.  That’s all you learn.  This shot of Hardyrenaline will nullify Alcides and Hardy’s value in mixed leagues, unless one gets hot and runs with it.  Runs being the key word, Alcides.  Hardy has pop and little else.  His best month of the last two years saw him hit 9 homers.  Conservatively, I’d say you’re looking at a guy that will give you a .250 average and 4 homers.  I will enjoy not owning you, Hardy.  Be well.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Penny – Signed on with the Giants and will be inserted into their rotation.  Bartleby’s Quote of the Day, “Everything old is new again, except Brad Penny.  He just kinda sucks.” That Bartleby, he’s quotatious!  I do like NL West pitchers and Penny suddenly is on my radar in deep mixed leagues (12+ teams).  In 12 team leagues, I’d grab him for match-ups, but would be cautious.

Jim Thome – Dodgers acquired the forebearer of country strong.  He’ll serve primarily as the guy on the bench that chews tobacco and scratches himself.  Occassionally, he may fill in for the power off the bench when Juan Pierre just won’t suffice.

Jon Garland – Dodgers decided August 31st is the new July 31st as they made a flurry of deals.  Don’t worry, Timmy.  It’s just a flurry of deals.  It’ll pass. If Garland were a Native American, his name would be Man Who Will Serve As Dodgers Long Relief Man In The Playoffs.  For now, he’ll have a slight uptick in value.  Which is to say he goes from negative value to just a smidge.  He’ll give you no Ks, not a great WHIP, but he’s been keeping his team in the game, which could become Wins with the Blue.  Unless your name is Randy Wolf.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  About a month ago, I pointed out to you that Washburn’s FIP was showing he was headed for a correction.  His owners and the Tigers obviously didn’t pay attention.

Carlos Guillen – 4-for-5, 2 homers.  Somebody’s been drinking their raw egg Hulk Hogan shakes.  I’m not a fan of Guillen usually, but at this time of the year, he’s hitting with power with 8 homers since his return.  Worth a flier to see if he keeps it up.

Daniel McCutchen – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks vs. Reds.  The Dread Pirate’s brother from a different mother had his major league debut yesterday.  It was a modest showing against a terrible team.  The Pirates really should be monitoring his innings, but they do what they do, so you can do what you do.  McCutchen has decent value in deep leagues — Think of a 7 K/9 and great control.  On the Pirates, good luck getting wins.

Drew Stubbs – 4-for-9, 2 HRs and a steal yesterday.  His home run balls are still in the left field bleachers since there were only about 2,000 people in attendance.  That’s including players and media.  If you need steals, Stubbs is worth owning.  But, with all of his strikeouts, he’s still a faux hawk away from being cool.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Great, terrific, welcome back!  It was still against the Pirates and it was still only 5 innings.  I’d risk Cueto in certain leagues, but not for the risk averse.

Chad Qualls – Done for the season.  See yesterday’s roundup for the rundown.  See what I did there?

Juan Gutierrez – Didn’t wanna scroll down, huh?  Gutierrez got the save yesterday.  SAGNOF!  If you need saves, grab him in every league.  He’s just as likely to get 7 saves in September as is Broxton.

Adam Lind – 2 HRs, 8 RBIs.  I fluffed him in a fluff piece just last week.

Rod Barajas – 2 HRs yesterday, but only 5 RBIs so last night he was Barbara Hershey to Lind’s Bette Midler.  But he has six homers in the last 10 games and he’s batting near .400 in the last week.

Jose Contreras – Rockies got Contreras from the White Sox.  This seems like a recipe for blech.

Alexei  Ramirez – 1-for-3 yesterday.  It’s a longshot at this point, but if he somehow gets to 20/20 this year (needs 6/7 respectively), he will be the most disappointing 20/20 middle infielder in the history of fantasy baseball.  He’s like the guy who has a 25 game hitting streak while only hitting .275.  Excite me, Alexei!  Do something!

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday.  For a guy with 13 homers, he seems like he has ten two homer games this year.  Have to check with Elias or Jayson Stark.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. the White Sox.  He’s still a risky play in mixed leagues.  I’m not even sure how Blackburn managed 7 Ks.  Guess when the White Sox throw in the towel, they really throw it in.

Cameron Maybin – Returns to the ‘lins, yes!  Has no place to play, no!

Kyle Blanks – Done for the year with a tear in his plantar fascia in his right foot.  He was seen limping out of the clubhouse using David Eckstein as a crutch.

Adrian Beltre – Expected to be activated for today’s game as he was able to take grounders again off his nuts.

Drew Stubbs will replace Willy T.  (<–Sounds like characters from a blaxploitation film.  And neither are African-American.  Weird!)  Stubbs might get the shaft vs. righties but he can be baadasssss for speed.  Drew Stubbs was selected a few picks before Travis Snider in the first round of the 2006 draft.  Not for his power… No, he won’t have much of that.  Not for his Ks either, but he may have a lot of those.  In Triple-A, he had 104 Ks in 107 games.  In. Triple. A.  That’s not a great sign.  If you need speed, SAGNOF!, but Stubbs might come as an average liability.  In one league, I dropped Snider (that was quick) for Stubbs, because I need speed more than power in that league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joey Votto – Left with blurry vision.  Will be evaluated today.  Votto’s teammates could really mess with him by all wearing those novelty t-shirts that says, “1 Tequila, 2 Tequila, 3 Tequila, Floor,” with the blurry type.

Johnny Cueto – Heads to the Disgraceful List with a plus-10.00 ERA in the 2nd half.  I’m sure Cueto’s owners wish he were on the DL for the last two months.  If you were having any problems pulling the trigger on dropping him, the Reds took care of that for you.  I’ll see you next March, Cueto, fairly well ’til then.

Hiroki Kuroda – Heads to the DL with a concussion. (Pun point for Grey.)  Jeff Weaver or Vicente Padilla will fill in for him.  Blech for the Blue.

John Smoltz – Smoltz signs with the Cards.  I wouldn’t pick him up outside of NL-Only leagues.  I don’t think he’ll suddenly be worthwhile just moving back to the NL.  Maybe some matchups potential.  But that’s about it.  I know Chi-Ali said, “Age ain’t nothing but a number,” but Chi-Ali’s in jail for murder, so let’s assume he doesn’t own Smoltz either.

Matt LaPorta – Should’ve been called up two months ago.  Shoot, he shouldn’t have been down in the minors to begin with.  If someone can figure out what Eric Wedge was doing in Crazy Town for the last few months, let us know.  In Triple-A, Matt LaPorta had 41 walks to only 54 Ks.  He had 17 homers in 92 games and a near .400 OBP.  I’d grab LaPorta if I needed some pop.  I like Snider a bit better for UTIL pop, but LaPorta has better eligibility.  They’re kinda tomato-tomahto.

Carlos Quentin – HRs in back-to-back games.  He’s capable of 12 homers the rest of the way.

Zach Greinke – 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks.  Since May 31st, Greinke has a 3.56 ERA.  Cust kayin’.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.  Greinke, I see your bid for a Cy Young and I raise you my own.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 2 Hits, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  A pitcher on the phone with his agent, “I wanna frickin’ face a pitcher three times a game!  I wanna face frickin’ Augie Ojeda three times a game!  Rusty Ryal?  Ryal?  What’s that, Gaelic?  I wanna face Rusty Irishman!”  Agent, “I understand, Mr. Halladay.  You have to talk to J.P.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Now up to 2.74 ERA on the year.  It sure is a slow climb to a 3.25 ERA.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Hey, there’s 1st half Jered Weaver again!  Hey, 1st half Jered Weaver, say hello to your mother for me.

Carlos Guillen – HR yesterday and three in the last seven games while batting .333.  I’m no fan of Guillen, but he’s batting in the middle of the order and he’s seeing the ball well (unlike Votto).

Carlos Gonzalez – Another homer yesterday.  This is getting ridiculous.  Oh, and Barmes hit his 20th.

Clay Buchholz – 6 IP, 1 ER.  It was about three starts ago I said I’d own Buchholz.  Since then, he’s under a 1.50 ERA.

Pat Burrell – Another homer.  Now has 8 more left in his bat.

B.J. Upton – Back-to-back games with homers.  I speak for all his owners when I say, “It’s about time.”

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Sure, it was vs. Giants, but I’ve been saying since mid-July I actually like Arroyo in the 2nd half.

Chipper Jones – The Braves scored 15 runs; Chipper went 0-for-3 with 1 Run.  Ticker tease!

Mat Latos – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  The Cubs aren’t great average-wise vs. righties, they were in Petco… Well, this should end Latos’s time on anyone’s team.  Sorry, these rookie pitchers never end well.

Clayton Kershaw – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  How many pitches do you think he threw in under 4 innings?  If I gave you the over/under of 95, which way would you go?  I’d love to see an extra inning game between the D’Backs and the Dodgers, where both bullpens were emptied, and they were forced to throw Kershaw and Scherzer.  It’s immediately sudden death because neither pitcher may go more than three innings.

Bill Wagner – He’s a middle reliever barring a trade or K-Rod getting into the same subway as Brian Bruney.  There’s lots of middle relievers I’d own before Wagner.

Angel Pagan – Was one of three players nominated by the Mets for the Henry Aaron Award, the award given to the top offensive player of each league.  I guess there’s no Tommy Aaron Award.

Bill Hall – Acquired by the Mariners.  They’re just trying to make Beltre seem more appealing.  I know that trick!  You act like a complete imbecile around your girlfriend’s sister, then when you meet the parents they have severely low expectations of you, having heard stories from the sister.  Then you act normal, and the parents are like, “Hey, he’s not that bad.  He used utensils!”  And it gets the parents thinking your girlfriend’s sister is just jealous.  What?  Am I the only one that does this?

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Tigers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Bill Ferris from The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

1) Last year’s acquisition of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera led to a defensive rotation that saw 3 regulars (Guillen, Cabrera, and Inge) bounce around the field.  Has the musical chairs ended?  Does Carlos Guillen really play the whole year in LF?

I think Guillen will get the most at-bats out there, but I’d see that being only about 60-65% or so. The impending injury to Gary Sheffield will likely free up the DH spot at some point and things will get shuffled around. I think he’ll likely fare okay  at the position, but it will be other factors that may force him to move (like the need for more offense in the infield for example).

2) What are your thoughts on Verlander and Bonderman for 2009?  Bounceback candidates or more challenges to come?

I expect more from both of them. I think Verlander will make the tweak or two he needs to regain his control. Plus he didn’t pitch that badly in terms of his peripherals last year, I’d expect some natural regression (progression) towards his FIP numbers. Bonderman I think will be a big boost to the rotation. He’s had injury problems the last 2 years, but last year’s injury should have him available to pitch the bulk of the season. Plus it gave his elbow some extra rest and I think he’ll be healthier and more effective than at any point in his career.

3) Would you take the over or under on the following HR/RBI projections:  Miguel Cabrera 35/110, Gary Sheffield 20/80, Magglio Ordonez 20/100, Adam Everett 2/40?

Over, Under, Over, Push.

4) Who ends up with more saves:  Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, or Joel Zumaya?

Brandon Lyon. If Zumaya is healthy I think he’ll be the guy ultimately, but given that is such a big IF I’m penciling him in for 0 at the moment.

5) My blogmate Grey sports an impressive moustache.  Rank the moustaches of these noteworthy Detroit Tigers baseball cap wearers:  Jack Morris, Jim Leyland, Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, Magnum PI?

Great question. Tom Selleck in a landslide followed by Jack Morris, Kirk Gibson, Jim Leyland and lastly Chet Lemon. As an aside, I saw Tom Selleck hit a couple balls out during batting practice at Tiger Stadium one time and this is one of my favorite TV scenes of all time (see below)