Even though major league teams have only played 3 or 4 games, RCL managers have been extremely active, averaging 50 moves per league. 10.6% of rostered players were picked up from the free agent pool. Factoring in players on the DL, you’re still left with the fact that 8% of drafted players have been dumped after only 3 full days of action.
Of course, many of those moves occurred before the season started, and in the week between the 2 games in Japan and the “real” start to the season. And 58% involved relief pitchers. Some of that is managers taking advantage of the RCL’s Game Started rather than Innings Pitched limit (more on that later), but the majority appear to be chasing saves, guessing who might be the next to get the opportunities as injuries and struggling pitchers abound in the relief corps. 19 pitchers have recorded 26 saves so far this season. 4 leagues have an almost perfect score with 25 saves; I don’t think anybody owned Brian Shaw, who picked up the save for Arizona yesterday as J.J. Putz was rested. Congratulations RCL 24, ECFBL, Robust Herd, and Schmohawk in Training. 41 other leagues have 22-24 saves, while the remaining 3 have 19, 20, and 21.
18 trades involving 54 players have already been made. The biggest names involved were in RCL 38, where Big Mess traded the 13th overall pick, Carlos Gonzalez, to Team Arnold for Hanley Ramirez, the 16th pick. Big Mess had not drafted a shortstop until the 20th round (Yunel Escobar), while Team Arnold had also taken Elvis Andrus in the 5th. In RCL 46, Team Stacy traded Andrew McCutchen to Hooka Man for Drew Stubbs and J.J. Putz. RPs were included in 8 deals, with Mariano Rivera and Heath Bell among those changing teams.
OK, as promised, some thoughts on our pitching limits. For those of you in your first season in the RCL, the 180-game started limit (approximately 1 start per day) is probably different than what you are used to. It makes management of your rotation more important to get the maximum numbers from your key starters. Middle relievers also become more valuable, as you can get ratio help and add Ks without eating into your 180 starts. And, it is important to remember, stats from relievers continue to count after you reach the games started limit. It is also possible to get a few extra starts, as all stats will count on the day you reach the 180-game limit. So, if you load up on starters for that day, you could actually finish with 188 starts. See 2011 results here.
TEAM OF THE WEEK – March 28 – April 8
snooki’s baby daddy (Balls and Razz)
.304(49/161)
27 R/7 HR/28 RBI/11 SB
40.2 IP
38 K/4 W/1.55/0.93/3 S
snooki’s baby daddy rode Matt Kemp (.412/6 R/2 HR/8 RBI/1 SB) and Carlos Pena (.500/2 HR/7 RBI) to 1st place in their league with 106.5 points. Their pitching was even more impressive, with Jeremy Hellickson, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Johnny Cueto totaling 30.2 shutout innings.
I mean, long gone are the days when your soon-to-be father-in-law would actually pay you (in sheep, no less) to take his wretched daughter off his hands.
Similarly, Razzballers are becoming masters of their own domains and kicking the traditional 5×5 fantasy baseball game to the curb. According to this survey, a ton of you guys are adding OPS to your leagues. OPS is on-base plus slugging – basically the sum of a player’s OBP and their slugging (to put it in almost identical wording).
I understand it, it’s new. The long ball is fun. It’s not the 1940s anymore when players hit only singles and everyone had tons of acres and sheep and whatnot to give away.
Back to fake reality: if you’re in one of these newfangled leagues, you have to change the kind of dowry you offer for certain players.
Black OPS All-stars
Not surprisingly, a lot of hitters featured in the OBP value risers will gain value in OPS leagues. Jose Bautista, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher all become even more valuable in this type of league. In addition a few other guys gain a good bit of value.
Hanley Ramirez: Shortstops, as a whole, tend to suck even more when it comes to OBP and OPS leagues. Troy Tulowitzki stands a cut above the rest. However, even including last season’s disaster, Ramirez is the #2 SS in OPS over the last three seasons. For his career, Ramirez has a .886 OPS. While he might not get back to his .900+ OPS ways, a .370 OBP and .450 slugging percentage would net him a .820 OPS, which would have been in the top 40 last season and third at the position. A resurgent Hanley is a phenomenal option in OPS leagues.
Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez posted the 12th best OPS among OFs last season and has the third best OPS since 2009 at the position. A .365 OBP and .545 slugging percentage (i.e., .910 OPS) seem par for the course with Gonzalez now. That’s a top 15 mark most years. If you add the steals and other counting numbers, Gonzalez becomes an incredibly interesting option in the late first round.
Carlos Beltran: A healthy Beltran represents huge value in OPS leagues. He has the seventh best OPS since 2009 among OFs and posted the ninth best mark at the position just last season. Over the last few seasons, Beltran has increased his walk rate and OBP, and, when healthy has maintained an ISO above .215. Beltran will post a .372 OBP and .487 slugging percentage, meaning an .859 OPS. He has the upside to #1 OF status for your team who you can probably get as your third OF.
Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis (Grey’s geriatric love), who didn’t post an OBP below .390 from 2007-2010, could have been mentioned in the OBP piece (but he’s a no brainer in that format). However, he has posted the 10th best OPS over the last three years. While his 2011 OPS (.833) was low by his standards, it would easily finish top 10 at the position. Outside of health, the only concern entering 2012 is that lack of fly balls from Youkilis last season. Unless he is trading fly balls for liners off the green monster, his slugging percentage will suffer (as it did in 2011). For that reason, Youkilis seems like a .490 slugging guy (oddly right in line with his career number). Add in a .395 OBP and you have an .885 OPS, which would have been second at the position last year and 16th overall. Even if you want to dock him a few more points in SLG and OBP, he’s still a top OPS performer.
Mark Teixeira: Teixeira is tied with Ryan Howard for the 10th best OPS among first basemen over the last three seasons. Still, that OPS lands him in a tie for 21st overall during that time. OPS, it’s a first baseman’s game. Teixeira shows that you can obtain elite production in OPS from the back-end of the first baseman pool, suggesting waiting on a slugger makes a lot of sense. Teixeira has an .877 OPS with the Yankees and should be good for a .360 OBP and .510 SLG this season, i.e., an .870 OPS, which would have put him among the top 25 players last season and eighth at the position.
Sleeper OPS
Jim Thome: Thome has the 15th best OPS over the last three years. During that time, he has averaged 27 HRs, a .376 OBP and a .526 SLG. While last season was nowhere close to his near-vintage 2010, it was in line with his production in 2009. For the Phillies, a .360 OBP and .480 SLG is not out of the question. That would give him a solid .840 OPS. The at bats might not be there, but he’s decidedly worth a flier in OPS leagues.
Josh Willingham: Surprisingly, Willingham is tied with Jayson Werth for the 41st best OPS over the last three seasons. That places him tied for 14th among OFs during that span as well. While Willingham’s OBP struggled last season, it was the first time he was in the American League and first time his walk rate dipped below double digits. Clearly some adjustment was needed and Willingham hit far better in the second half. There’s no reason Willingham can’t get his walk rate back to 11.5%, which should push his OBP to at least .355. In addition, he slugged .477 last year in Oakland, so he should have no problem putting up a .470 SLG in Minnesota. This would give Willingham an .825 OPS, which would put him in the top 20 at his position.
Luke Scott: Last season was a disaster for Scott. However, in the previous three years, he averaged a .348 OBP and .497 SLG (.845 OPS). Of course, there is a legitimate chance father time is catching up to Scott as he will be 34 this season. Nevertheless, he is mostly an afterthought in drafts and should be a cheap lottery ticket in OPS leagues.
Matt Joyce: Joyce, 27-years-old, has put up an .829 OPS over the last two seasons. While he took a small step backward in OBP last year (his walk rate was 9.4%), there’s no way he can’t get it back to 11% or so. If he does, he can post a .355 OBP. In addition, Joyce is entering his prime, hit more line drives last year and could be good for a few more extra base hits. A .482 SLG would net him an .837 OPS, making him an incredibly solid option in OPS leagues. In addition, his splits give you a blueprint to use him, i.e., only when a righty is starting.
Dexter Fowler: There aren’t many speed guys who rank among the OPS leaders at their respective positions (and calling Fowler a speed guy might be generous). Fowler’s .796 OPS last season was 29th for OFs and he demonstrated solid growth throughout the season. His three highest OPS months were in the second half and there was a near 200 point gulf between his first half OPS and second half. Fowler has always walked at a good clip and has posted 21%+ line drive rates the last three seasons. A .365 OBP and .435 SLG are not out of the question, which would help him reach a .800 OPS. Those numbers are a tad optimistic, but he could also improve on them. The biggest aspect of Fowler’s game that limits his value is his failure to use his speed. He was 12/21 in SB attempts last year and is 52/80 in his MLB career. Still, Fowler has two important ingredients in a base stealer: speed and OBP. Call Fowler a real big sleeper in OPS leagues.
Taco Bell Black OPS (non)Ballers
There is a bunch of cross-over from the OBP post to the OPS one when it comes to sucky guys for this format (cough shortstops). Alcides Escobar, Ian Desmond, Ichiro and others who don’t get on base a ton and hit a lot of singles lose tremendous value in OPS leagues.
Elvis Andrus: Andrus had the 13th best OPS among SS last season (behind Erick Aybar, Derek Jeter, Emilio Bonifacio, Yunel Escobar and others). While Andrus has begun to walk at a decent clip and his ISO double last season, his career OBP and SLG are separated by just .003. Andrus will get on base just fine (.350), however his SLG won’t be much higher (.360), leaving him with a pretty terrible .710 OPS. There’s better ways to get 40 SBs than sacrificing that OPS.
Jimmy Rollins: Surprisingly, Rollins posted the 11th best OPS last season at the position and has the 16th best OPS over the last three years. His OPS during that time is lower than Marco Scutaro and Juan Uribe. Rollins’ ISO has trended down since 2007 and has apparently stabilized at .130. While he has begun to walk more, he has also tried to hit more fly balls (potentially to make up for his lack of power), which has zapped his batting average. Consequently, he is giving back the OBP he would have gained with his walks in trying to hit homers. At this point, he looks like a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. He won’t post an OPS much higher than Andrus in 2012.
Michael Bourn: While not as weak as Andrus, Bourn doesn’t drive the ball at all. Bourn maintains value in OBP leagues, but posting around a .700 OPS leaves fantasy owners wanting. Bourn is basically Mark Reynolds in OPS leagues. He provides elite value in one-category while hurting you remarkably in another. He’s not quite as disastrous as Reynolds in average, but it’s probably better to get speed somewhere else.
Alex Rios: Even when Rios was great in 2010, he didn’t crack a .800 OPS. In fact, his OPS over the last three seasons is barely in the top 90 OFs. Even if he bounces back in an optimistic sense (.325 OBP and .440 SLG), that’s a .765 OPS, which would have tied for 34th at the position last year and would be worse than what Jon Jay did. Right now, he’s ranked 70th at Fleaflicker, which is madness, but even if he were another 100 spots later, I’d pass in an OPS league.
Cameron Maybin: Maybin is an odd case as he walks a decent amount and has the potential to drive the ball (.130 ISO last year, .132 for his career), yet he has a .704 OPS for his career. Still, he has posted mammoth OPS seasons in the minors and is still relatively young, so there is room for optimism. However, not even the most optimistic projections (.350 OBP, .425 SLG) get him to an .800 OPS. In reality, it’s far more likely he posts a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. That marginalizes his 40 steal potential.
The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow. Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales. Oofa! For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale. Zadow! As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:
7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pence. I call this tier, “These players. ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’” The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.
9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays. If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit. 2012 Projections: 90/34/100/.270/10
10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton. No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out. People have realized he’s Mr. Glass. When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs. When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else. In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting. (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.) 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.295/7
12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz. I think the market has finally figured out Cruz. No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own. 2012 Projections: 70/30/85/.260/10
12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier. Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls. Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs. Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee. (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.) 2012 Projections: 95/25/100/.280/10
13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Victorino. I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers? This tier I’m going to pass over.” Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells. He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do. Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday. I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday? I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him. Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings. 2012 Projections: 85/24/90/.305/5
16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run. Victorino and I. It’s come to an end. Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron. Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected. His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat. If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha. The goodbye version of aloha, that is. 2012 Projections: 85/15/55/.275/20
17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way. Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about. Times is tough, yo.” Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.
18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy. While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window. 2012 Projections: 80/16/65/.275/35
19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton. Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom. (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average. Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.) Upton hits for power and steals bases. I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40. At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on. 2012 Projections: 80/20/85/.250/40
20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him. But games haven’t started yet?! Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice. Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal. A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro. 2012 Projections: 80/25/90/.285/12
As you probably know, we just went over the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball and today we give you… Hint: it’s in the title of the post. Oh, forget it. Here’s our top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball. And by our top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, I mean mine, but ‘our’ sounds more official. Like when your girlfriend catches you cheating on her and she says let’s make our breakup official and then kicks you in the balls. The second round is the hardest to peg. That’s just the facts of life, Blair. There’s no way around it. I have a theory why this is, maybe it’s fodder for its own post, but here goes the short version. In the first round, it’s no-brainers. In the second round, you have to complement the first guy and you want a sure thing because it’s still way too early to reach. Also, there’s just more question marks. Next we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you. In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love that required a C-section as I battled with myself on just about every spot. I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players. As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2012 fantasy baseball projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball:
11. Adrian Gonzalez – This tier started in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Ellsbury. I call this tier, “Less exciting than the next tier, but more consistent.” Who could’ve predicted Gonzalez would move from Petco to Fenway and have his worst power year since 2006? Rhetorical! For some reason (I’m sure someone knows), his ground balls went through the roof (not literally, unless there’s ants reading this). A ground ball rate of 46.7 is not terrific. It’s around Bourjos, Austin Jackson and Drew Stubbs’s type ground ball rate. His BABIP was off the charts lucky, so, with all those ground balls, he was inches away from having a hideous season. I don’t want to overrate any of this. He’s still in a great park, solid lineup and the middle of his prime. Even if he hits only 30 homers (which he should), he’s going to have great counting stats and a decent enough average. If I had to choose one 1st rounder that might have a disastrous season out of nowhere, I’d choose A-Gon, but that’s a gut call. We’re not drafting based on my gut, especially not after I just ate Thai. 2012 Projections: 100/32/115/.275
12. Robinson Cano – I really want to despise every Yankee player like everyone else outside of New York, northern New Jersey and the retirement homes of Florida, but Cano makes it hard to dislike him. I guess, when people call him Robbie Cano, you can picture an 80′s movie bully in an Izod shirt and want to do something to him that would elicit a slow clap. “Robbie Cano, you are not going to tell me where I can sit in the outdoor cafeteria!” That’s you standing up to Robbie Cano at lunch. Didn’t you always wish you had an outside cafeteria like in Can’t Buy Me Love? Maybe it was just me. Players don’t come much more consistent than Cano. Pencil him in for .315, 27 homers and 100 runs and RBIs, then erase the .315 and make it .310. Aren’t you glad you didn’t use pen? 2012 Projections: 105/27/105/.310/5
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – I surprised myself when I landed on this ranking for Ellsbury. Like I snuck of behind myself and screamed “Boo” then added snuck into the dictionary so when I looked it up it was there and surprised myself again. Steals can be found later in drafts. SAGNOF! But they can’t be found so readily with 20 homers and a .300 average. No, not 30 homers. That was an anomaly of an aberration on the ain’t-happening-again tip. A moment in time that can only be described as the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel touching Ellsbury’s bat. Or maybe you can describe it differently. Your call. I see a few people ranking Ellsbury even higher than this, but I wouldn’t cry if I miss out on him. Again, SAGNOF! How did I finally conclude he should be ranked here? I rank Reyes a couple of slots below him and Ellsbury will hit more homers. Sure, Reyes has shortstop eligibility, but high-production outfielders aren’t exactly growing on trees, unless that was the point of The Tree of Life. I have no idea. 2012 Projections: 110/17/70/.295/45
14. Ian Kinsler – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until CarGo. I call this tier, “These guys could win the MVP or frustrate the shizz out of you.” Everyone in the first and second round seems like guarantees right now. If it were only that easy. There will be disappointments. I have a feeling a disappointment or two might come out of this tier because of injuries, but, as of right now, that’s just a guessing game. Anyway, Kinsler’s BABIP last year was low, his K-rate improved, great home park, lineup protection, power is repeatable, the same for his speed… So where’s the downside? The Rangers are a walking MASH unit and Kinsler is Hawkeye. Last year he had 723 PAs. That’s more PAs than James Cameron used on his last film. There’s not a chance Kinsler sees that many PAs again. That was a lot for even a healthy player. Kinsler loses five homers and steals if he only gets one little bruise or bump. Ron Washington, “Did someone say bump?” 2012 Projections: 100/25/70/.260/25
15. Jose Reyes – I almost ranked Dustin Pedroia here. Then I thought about how Pedroia doesn’t feel like a guy that is gonna be on a championship fantasy team. I’m sure some of youse have won with Pedroia, but his stats feel more like a guy whose numbers you luck into off waivers that end up propelling you to a championship. I’m just a hater drinking Haterade that’s loaded with Vitamin D to enrich and fortify my haterness. As for Reyes, he does feel like a guy that will win you a league. Reyes gets on his up-jump-the-boogie and he carries you for a month or two at a time. Reyes can get gully. Can Pedroia? I guess, but I want someone who can do something miraculous. Like steal 50+ bases. Also, I went over my Jose Reyes 2012 fantasy when he first signed with the Marlins. I wrote it while teaching my neighbor how to Dougie. 2012 Projections: 110/12/50/.295/45
16. Hanley Ramirez – Manny showed how insouciance (Word of the Day!) goes from cute to tiresome as a player ages. Hanley’s not that old yet. Even if we’re to assume he’s a Latin 28, he still has a few years left in his tank. Maybe the Marlins can hire Dolvett from The Biggest Loser to get Hanley to care. “How am I supposed to give one hundred percent in the workouts when all I want to do is take a nap because of the tryptophan from the Jennie-O turkey?” That would be me on The Biggest Loser. If Hanley is motivated, he wins the MVP with him and his new right hand man, Jose Reyes, doing a highly-choreographed, five minute handshake every couple of innings. 2012 Projections: 90/20/105/.305/25
17. Carlos Gonzalez – Another guy that could win the MVP or be a bigger bust than Billy Butler’s (guess that’s why I titled this tier what I did). The risk is again the health. There’s one positive that can be taken away from CarGo’s 2011. His walk and K-rate both improved. His plate discipline didn’t exactly become Gandhi-like, but any improvement is a step in the right direction. It wouldn’t shock me to see CarGo and Tulo carry the Rockies to a walk in the NL West. Also wouldn’t shock me to see them both out by May. There lies the rub, which would be a good name for a massage parlor. 2012 Projections: 100/25/100/.300/18
18. Andrew McCutchen – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pedroia. I call this tier, “Two guys I’m trying to draft everywhere and two guys I probably won’t draft.” McCutchen can make a run at the 1st round for 2013 if he can fulfill expectations. Would be the first time we see a Pirate in the first round of a fantasy draft since when? Barry Bonds when he still wore a size 7 ball cap? Eh, we’ll save that Pirate reach around for next year. The Dread Pirate will post the same numbers as CarGo minus some average and is capable of numbers that approach Ellsbury’s 2011. I can’t express to you how much I like The Dread Pirate this year other than telling you my failings at being able to express my Dread Pirate love. He’s entering his prime with 30+ steal speed and 20+ homer power. Now you likey too; thank you. 2012 Projections: 95/25/100/.275/30
19. Mike Stanton – I strongly considered putting Stanton in the Kinsler tier. Speaking of strongly, I looked at that word for a few minutes (okay, maybe a half hour) and I thought about how strong Stanton is. Then that took me to the site that measures homers expecting to find Stanton at the top of a list. I wasn’t disappointed. No one hit more “No Doubt” homers in the NL than Stanton and he was only 2nd in the majors to Jose Bautista. Since the high left field wall will be no more in the new Miami ballpark, it could mean even more laser shots for Stanton. Also, “down the right field line” is coming in ten feet in the new stadium so the opposite field shots that were already easy, just got easier. I don’t giddy for many players (I’m hard, yo!), but Stanton’s a beast and I’m his beauty. Or some other mixed up metaphor. 2012 Projections: 100/37/115/.260/7
20. Roy Halladay – I’m very hesitant to draft a pitcher in the 2nd round. In fact, I really can’t imagine it happens. I have Kinsler, McCutchen, Stanton, Fielder, etc. etc. etc. so much higher than most people that I’m gonna be drafting one of them instead of Halladay. I only get one pick every 10 or so in a snake draft. In auction leagues, I try not to go over $29, so I’m not getting a whole lot of these players anyway. (I’ll go over snake and auction draft strategy in due time.) If there was one pitcher I’d take in the 2nd round? Roy G. Biv Devoe, now you know. Yo, slick, blow. 2012 Projections: 20-7/2.50/1.05/215
21. Dustin Pedroia – He’s consistent. Has spunk. Needs to wear a cone so he doesn’t chew his foot. He feels a lot more to me like an early 3rd rounder than a late 2nd rounder. Last year he needed 731 plate appearances to get a 21/26 season. If he hits 18 homers, we’re not even having a discussion about whether he’s a 2nd rounder or a 3rd rounder. He’s an 18/20 player. Can that be more? Sure, he just had a season where he gave more. The thing that has me feeling janky is it can also be less. If it’s only a tad less, he’s not even a 3rd rounder. I hate that we need his ceiling to justify his ranking, so I’m hoping someone else takes him. Actually, I’m almost positive someone else will. 2012 Projections: 105/18/80/.295/20
After the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of players, but these two stand out as guys to NOT draft:
Mark Teixeira – Te(i)x has stopped hitting for an average. It doesn’t look like it’s coming back any time soon. His average last year .248 looks like the bottom, but I really thought his 2010 average of .256 was the bottom, so I guess anything’s possible. In 2012, I think this is the last time we see Te(i)x anywhere near the top 20. Will he totally collapse as he pulls a 2011 Youuuuuk? Probably not. The one thing that I think will stave off the ugly is the power is still there in a much bigger way than it ever was with Youuuuuk. Also, his park/lineup won’t let him be totally awful, then again Youuuuk’s park and lineup weren’t bad. I don’t want Te(i)x for one big reason. How much different is he than Konerko? Some more runs for Te(i)x, some more average for Konerko, rest is pretty similar. Things that make you go hmm…. 2012 Projections: 100/35/110/.260
Curtis Granderson – He’s the greatest outfielder known to man. Even some women think he’s wonderful. What I don’t understand is why was it that I liked him in the preseason last year and still only ranked him 88th overall? On average, people drafted him 92nd overall last year. Because he had a career year he’s suddenly a top twenty player? He’s gonna be 31 years old and could hit .240. His home runs were off the charts last year. His counting stats were cray cray. Rollins’s 139 runs in 2007 were the last time anyone came close to Grandy’s 136 runs from last year. Wanna put money on it that he doesn’t score over 110 runs? For those who think it’s a slam dunk in that lineup and ballpark, he only scored 76 runs in 2010. He only had 67 RBIs in 2010. A guy who can hit .240 could go through month-long dry spells where he gets dropped in the order. If you draft Grandy in the 2nd round, you’re like a lamb led to the slaughter. Grandy’s mother, brother, grandmother hate me in that order. 2012 Projections: 100/29/90/.255/18
Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next! No, not pitchers. Read the title, man. In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9. It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism! Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon. There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake. Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players. Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year. You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them. I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall. Just off Ryan Braun. He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s. He wasn’t an obvious pick. 2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name. In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010. That’s clear. He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases. Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year. Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky? They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.” You can’t make that shizz up. Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40
2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming. About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner. While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable. But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury. Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections: 90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39
3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast. Zing! BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur? Atone-mints. Zadow! The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers: 109/33/111/.332/33
4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real? God, no. Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year. Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers: 136/41/119/.262/25
6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky. Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy. He’s a Braun. Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year. And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers: 105/31/88/.289/21
7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest. SAGNOF is one. It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall. Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp. Your league would’ve had a conniption. People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus. Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections: 80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61
8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder. (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.) Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production. As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances. 706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals? If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 102/18/87/.305/20
9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already. I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 101/23/87/.303/17
10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated. Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have. How dare you overperform your underperformance! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers: 92/26/92/.295/20
11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold. You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence. Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers: 84/22/97/.314/8
13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011. They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers. The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays. As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific. But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety? In deep leagues? Sure. You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out. But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/20/87/.285/22
15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would. Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8
16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J. I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy. It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict. Hate on low power or low speed, but low average? It’s a horn bet. Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: 95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36
18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would. He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling. I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done. The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp. There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23
19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season. Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms. All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team. I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now. You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway. SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?) I was kinda disappointed. To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A. Damn you, expectations. I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same. It did. They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory. Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck! Not really, but whatever. I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all. Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it! Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada. “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?” Cut to: Tejada holding a syringe. Tejada, “Yes. Blood sugar low.” Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy. Should’ve changed the lyrics though: I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke. Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog. Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections: 50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers: 69/8/54/.264/49
