Almost 10 years before The Fast and the Furious, many of my friends were into street racing. They’d form crews and fix up their cars to race at Battle of the Imports or on the street for cash or pink slips. I remember one crew was called the Decepticons and had the logo plastered all over their cars. Some looked so tight. I’ll never forget one guy, though. He’d spend a ton of money on the exterior: rims, lights, body kit. He even decked out the interior with a roll cage, racing seats, pedals, instrument gauges, etc. His ride looked so, so nice. The only problem was that he spent no money on the engine. ALL SHOW NO GO. Which segues perfectly to Carlos Gonzalez (70% owned – decrease of 6.1%). CarGo sucks. One of Grey’s favorite movie lines is: See that S Car Go from Trading Places. One of my all-time favorite movies by the way. Anyways, this CarGo ain’t going anywhere. He hit 40 home runs two years ago. Last year, he hit 25 home runs. This year? He’s hit six. SIX! The ISO is at .116. The triple-slash line is .218/.296/.335. wRC+ is 47. His ground ball rate is at a career-high, hard contact rate is at a career-low, and he’s going oppo at a career-low rate. Steamer has rest of season projections at .277 average, 12 home runs, 33 runs scored, 38 RBI, and one stolen base. I’m just not buying it. He’s 31 years old. Side rant. Why didn’t the Rockies trade him last year? Anyways, other than the fact that he sucks, is he even going to play everyday? Charlie Blackmon is entrenched in centerfield. You guys know my love for Gerardo Parra. I guess he platoons with Ian Desmond. But….what happens when David Dahl returns? TRASH.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Well, the All-Star break happened and now here I sit. Only three games of data to expunge my sort of genius onto the masses… that’s like the Gettysburg Address stopping at “four score and seven”. So with limited research, I gotta get creative with words. Like, have you checked out Fantasy Soccer, yeah… it’s that oddly shaped ball at the top of this page. Don’t play? Well you should. So onto the number seven with bacon. Also known as the KC stealer. Over the past 15 games that oddly enough dates back when we were still celebrating fireworks and stuff, Whit Merrifield leads the majors in steals with 7. Big deal, 7 whole steals! Well, the steals bandwagon has lost some steam this year with Billy not doing consistent Billy things and Trea doing game-ready stuff at Chuck E. Cheese’s, but strangely enough he still needs an adult with him. Curse you baby-faced guys! Whit isn’t just a dead stick as he has revitalized the Royals line-up, as they have an unbelievable record since his insertion into the leadoff spot. It’s not George Springer-type good, but for SAGNOF, we take what we can get. Currently owned in half of the ESPN leagues, which means that he is owned in every RCL league (basically), so kudos for all of us that are paying attention. But on the happenstance that he isn’t owned, go grab him, do it gently though, he pees when he gets nervous.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Legit, this is longest July 4th weekend of all time. In 1776 on July 4th, Ben Franklin grabbed six ladies, and was like, “This will be better than Flag Day. We will call this Flagellation Day. Now twerk with a firework!” That lasted for three days until Ben yelled out an Astros’ hitter last name and called for a volunteer fire department to put out his redness. Any hoo! Ian Desmond hit the DL with “I wanna rest for a few extra days before the break.” It’s an epidemic that is going around the majors right now. This especially sucks for those that had him in their weekly lineups because you’re getting ziplock. But, for the rest of us, we got Raimel Tapia (3-for-4, 2 runs and his 2nd homer). Fun fact! He has a brother who drinks too much and can’t control his lasciviousness. His name is Felasleepon Tapia. Raimel gets a huge boost in value with Desmond’s DL stint. He’s a grab for every league, especially if you need SAGNOF. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Julio Urias is this week’s gut-punch injury of the week. The 20-year-old uber-prospect is about to miss a year and a half (at least) after undergoing anterior capsule surgery in his throwing shoulder. Urias has had some bad luck throughout his life. As a kid in Mexico, Urias underwent three surgeries on his eye to remove a non-cancerous mass. In 2015 he had cosmetic surgery to repair the drooping eyelid caused by this mass. Hopefully Urias will come back strong from this current surgery, but there is cause for concern any time there is a major surgery on a pitcher’s throwing shoulder. I’d recommend dropping him even in dynasty leagues as his successful return is not a given. As for his replacement you can trade one J-U for another: Jose Urena (17.7%.) Over his last 4 starts Urena has 3 quality starts and 16 K’s in 23 IP. He’s allowed 23 base runners which isn’t phenomenal, but Urena’s throwing shoulder is in one piece so he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.Please, blog, may I have some more?
There is no truth to the rumor that Elvis Andrus stole his entire playing career from “Fats” Domingo, “Ivory” Roberto Kelly or Nate King Colbert. Elvis hits the covers off the ball better than Cam “Carl” Perkins and Jerry Lee Lewis Brinson. It is not Elvis’ fault that the way he plays the bat is seen as an appropriation of a top shortstop of yesteryear. He’s got the chops to knock down that axe! (All guitar knowledge I possess was used in that nine word sentence.) Yesterday, Elvis Andrus had the best game of an already great season, going 3-for-4, 3 runs, 4 RBIs with his 8th and 9th homers. On our Player Rater, he’s in the top 20 overall. Not for shortstops, for all hitters and pitchers. Love me tender! Some of the names he’s above Giancarlo, Correa, Mookie and Dee Gordon. Love me sweet! Never let me go! Well, not so fast there. If I thought you could actually get value for Andrus in a trade, I could see it since he’s likely at his peak value. Unfortunately, there’s little chance you’d get back in a trade anything resembling Andrus’ value, so I’d Bubba hold Tep. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hello, I hope everyone is enjoying their work day. I welcome you all to another wonderful DFS slate on FanDuel. I know all the way back in week 1 I said I’d try to never recommend a game in Coors Field…well that ends today. Sorry, but you can’t ignore the game in Coors Field. There’s plenty of ways to make sure your lineup isn’t all chalk. Making multiple lineups and stacking each team or stack a whole team 1-8 across a few lineups and I’m talking right down to the catchers. Tony Wolters? Sure, if he’s playing and not Tom Murphy. What about Chris Herrmann? Yeah, him too. The usual suspects are in play as well including Mark Reynolds, Nolan Arenado, Jake Lamb, Charlie Blackmon, and Paul Goldschmidt. Those OF bats ain’t too shabby either, so check and see if Gregor Blanco, Carlos Gonzalez, and/or David Peralta are playing. Just remember: don’t use either of these pitchers, though…DUH. Colorado is playing too well for Walker to make a difference and Hoffman is really really bad.
Now on to the picks…
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Every year, there are surprises in fantasy baseball. Some players come out of nowhere and breakout or, in the case of Aaron Judge, absolutely dominate. Other players regress after a breakout season the year before. There are even the players who have long track records of mediocrity who, all of sudden, appear to have figured something out en route to becoming legitimate contributors both in fantasy and in, you know, real baseball. I like to call these players Justin Smoak-Logan Morrison-Yonder Alonso. The more popular terms among Razzballers for these players are Schmohawks and Hot Schmotatos.Please, blog, may I have some more?
After homering in his fourth straight game, Matt Davidson (2-for-4, 2 runs) is halfway to Dale Long’s record of home runs in eight straight games. A record I didn’t think would ever be matched, aside from it being matched twice previously by Ken Griffey Jr. and Don Mattingly. Dale Long was mostly remembered for that record and getting to first base with his bat. Good year for no-names whose last name ends in son: Davidson, Morrison, Alonson. The book on Davidson previously was a AAAA player, which is different than Mickey Mantle and David Wells. That’s two AA players. Sadly (for him), Davidson is playing so over his head that giraffes be like, “Yo, come down from there.” In Triple-A, he was a 30% strikeout guy and is striking out at a 38% rate now, so he will hit .200 for the season and be an only-occasional home run guy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I use a number of different tools, sites, and metrics every week to adjust my rankings and to determine exactly who I should focus on each week. I usually try to focus on players owned in less than 60% leagues, players who are rising or falling and who you should probably buy low or sell high on, or players who are new to the Top 100 or on the cusp of joining the ranks. It has only been a few weeks since I took over these rankings for the legendary M@, so I am still working on creating the most efficient system (I spend wayyyyyy too much time agonizing over these rankings every Sunday).
I start by going over my notes and spreadsheets from the previous week, then take a peek at Razzball’s Player Rater and look at the current rankings and the Rest of Season Projections. Once I jot down some notes from those, I take a look at ESPN’s PR15 Player Ratings for the last 15 days. Lastly, I check FanGraphs with a focus on the best wOBA for the last 14 days and the last 30 days. Usually, once I am finished with that process, I have an idea of who I am going to write about and a starting point for adjusting the rankings.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s begin by having a moment of silence for the fact that we will be without Mike Trout for two months. I dropped him to 23 in the rankings below, which are considered ROS trade value. I know it is hard to justify Trout over some talented players who aren’t going to miss two months, I just couldn’t bring myself to drop him much lower. The Razzball Player Rater has him all the way down to 71 for ROS projections. Personally, if I were to trade Trout, I would hold out for the highest bid and make someone overpay. Otherwise, I’m not moving him. And in keeper leagues, I would still have him at number 1 and wouldn’t entertain offers.
Now, for the players who are playing right now. The two players I moved up and want to focus on this week are Justin Bour and Justin Smoak. I received some questions and comments on here and on Twitter last week about Smoak, so let’s take a look at him first. He has looked great this season, but I have my doubts.
While Smoak’s slash line and counting stats look great right now, unless he finally figured everything out at 30 years old, I have my doubts. Yes, he is currently on pace for almost 40 home runs. Yes, he is striking out 17.9% of the time, which is almost half as much as he did last season and is well below his career average of 23.5%. Through 55 games and over 200 plate appearances in 2017, the metrics back up what he is doing.
But here’s the thing.
Smoak has been in the league for eight seasons and has over 3,000 plate appearances. He’s a career .227 / .311 / .402 hitter. His previous high for home runs in a season is 20, which he did back in 2013. Take a look at his wOBA by season:
Translation: Smoak isn’t this good. This probably isn’t going to last, and a regression is coming.
Now, as far as Justin Bour goes, I am still skeptical but am less skeptical. Bour is 29 but has just over 1,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. He has displayed this kind of power before, both at the major league level and in the minors, so it is easier to believe that his current power stroke is real. Will he continue to hit up around .300? No, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit in the .250-.270 range and offer up 30 home runs, as long as he can stay healthy (which he can’t always do).
The main point here is that, while Bour is only a year younger, he doesn’t have as much of a negative track record that we can hold against him. He has also displayed plus-power in the past, while Smoak has always struggled to fulfill his potential in that department. Bour is likely to regress a bit as well, but I don’t think his regression will be as extreme as Smoak’s. If I had to pick between these two first basemen as a guy I value higher ROS I am taking Bour every time. Maybe I’m just biased now that I live in South Florida, or maybe their track records are telling us everything we need to know about them…Please, blog, may I have some more?