Fantasy Baseball Advice

I went over the fantasy baseball implications of the Holliday trade for Holliday the other day. Now that the deal has been finalized, approximately three days later, I’ll go other the other parts of the trade. This part of the trade is also known as, “The Players That the Rockies Received from Beane as He Played the MLB Version of Let’s Make A Deal.” Dan O’Dowd, “I’ll take Door Number 3!” Announcer, “It’s…. Huston Street!” The Rockies fans groan. Anyway, here’s the other schmohawks that the Rockies received in the trade for Matt Holliday and some other fantasy baseball implications:

Huston Street - 2009 Vegas line for Huston Street is an Over/Under of 15 saves and a 60-Day DL trip. You need to know more? Okay, side note. At some point during the 2008 season, I mentioned that I owned Kerry Wood on a team. People commented that they were surprised since in the preseason of 2008 I was down on Wood. I said I owned Wood because everyone was down on Wood. He ended up being a late-round bargain. They’re zigging, man! Then zag. If the Rockies are saying Street is the closer and if he falls far enough to me, then I’m drafting him.  As always, SAGNOF.  I just know I’m going to end up with Street on a team or two or three. No one thinks he’s going to make it the whole season or get many saves. Whatevs, he might not. I’m still drafting him real late and taking his 15 saves. What, you don’t have a DL slot?

Joey Devine - I’ve already shown you my campaign pin for Devine in 2009. Unfortunately, the louder I sing his praises, the more Devine is going to be hyped up going into 2009 drafts. Make no mistake, this will not make him better, just more hyped. Make sure to keep those two separate in your mind.

Brad Ziegler - No one has come out and said Devine will be the A’s closer in 2009. I just think he will. Ziegler has “Setup man” written all over him. It was written on him by Devine while Ziegler was passed out drunk.

Carlos Gonzalez - Last year, Gonzalez did not show one sign that he was ready for the majors. He’s a decent prospect that needs to be grabbed in keeper and NL-Only leagues as an endgame option. He may not do a thing in 2009. His role will have to be watched in spring training.

Greg Smith - He was the recipient of terrible run support on the A’s (Shocker!), but now that the Rockies gave away their offensive centerpiece, they may look like the 2008 A’s in 2009. Greg Smith is a flyball pitcher heading to Coors — Hey, Gus, leave the balls in the humidor for another twenty minutes. I don’t think they’re done yet. — and Smith doesn’t strikeout many hitters. I want Ubaldo and Francis before Smith on my fantasy teams in 2009 and I don’t really want them either. Understand? Or am I being obtuse?

We’ve already recapped all the 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Yo, I recapped yo’ ass! Now, a look at the rookies. Rookie nookie: 1. the desire to pickup a rookie for their upside over a reliable, but unexciting veteran. 2. Putting a chess piece where it doesn’t belong. We’re going to focus on the first definition for this post. Rookie nookie is like sex with a new partner. It’s all unknown and exciting. There’s no preconceived notions about who’s going to be on top and who’s going to refuse to bring Marshmallow Fluff into the bedroom. When you pickup these rookies, they can be anything. Mike Aviles can hit .400, Evan Longoria can hit 50 home runs, Jacoby Ellsbury can steal 100 bases. For just a moment, it’s Christmas morning, you’re eight-years-old and inside these wrapped boxes could be a 40/120/.370 hitter. Now that I’ve put my clothes on backwards and Kriss Krossed about six different metaphors, I want to say I’m a pretty big believer in rookie hitters. Usually their price tag brings very little downside and, when you’re dealing with 5th OFs, CIs or MIs, you really want to take gambles. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008:

20. J.R. Towles - I told everyone in the preseason to avoid this schmohawk like the plague. Honestly, I didn’t even think he’d be this bad. Final Numbers:  10/4/16/.137

19.  Carlos Gonzalez - Bleech.  Final Numbers:   31/4/26/.242/4

18.  Daric Burton - See Carlos Gonzalez or 1/18 of an inch above.  Final Numbers:  59/9/47/.226/2

17.  Brandon Wood - I keep liking this guy, eventually he’s going to have to play, right? I mean, how many subpar brothers (Erick and Maicer) of already subpar players (Willy and Cesar) can one team play? Final Numbers:  12/5/13/.200/4

16.  Taylor Teagarden - There was about a two week period there were Teagarden hit a home run in every game he played. Unfortunately, the Rangers feel the need to have four Major League-ready catchers. Grey to the Rangers, “Choose one catcher and trade away the rest. You’re welcome.” Final Numbers:  10/6/17/.319

15.  Pablo Sandoval - This is a bit Jayson Stark of me to point out, but in over four hundred less at-bats than Bengie Molina, Sandoval had only 22 less runs scored. And Molina had a good year by his standards! <– Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary. Final Numbers:  24/3/24/.345

14.  Chris Dickerson - Dickerson’s on my short list of guys I’m watching in 2009 Spring Training. To clarify, that is not a height-challenged list. Final Numbers:  20/6/15/.304/5

13.  Chase Headley - Rudy and I were talking (we talk, ya’ll!) and I think we might make Razzball an anti-Padres hitter site. This is still in the discussion stage. Final Numbers:  34/9/38/.269/4

12. Ian Stewart - With 2nd base eligibility, you coud’ve done worse. Like any schmohawk that was playing 2nd for the Padres. Final Numbers:  33/10/41/.259/1

11.  David Murphy - Does he yawnstipate me because his name is so boring or because of his numbers?  Prolly a bit of both. (BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve fully adopted turning probably into prolly. I haven’t embraced anything this freely since Z. Cavariccis in the late ’80s.) Final Numbers:  64/15/74/.275/7

10.  Kosuke Fukudome - Didn’t like the latest import from the Far East in the preseason and that panned out. Final Numbers:  79/10/58/.257/12

9.  Denard Span - He replaced Carlos Gomez at the top of the order and showed a disciplined eye. Who is Denard Span, Alex? Final Numbers:  70/6/47/.294/18

8. Jay Bruce - When Jay Bruce was called up there was a large group of people on Razzball that thought they saw the messiah. Unfortunately, when Bruce went to walk on water, the Ks sunk him. He’s still only 21 and there’s no reason think he won’t be great. Final Numbers:  63/21/52/.254/4

7.  Mike Aviles - This year, the peasant Royals had a few gems. Aviles was one. Final Numbers:   68/10/51/.325/8

6.  Chris Davis - His average this year will be exploited in a full year’s worth of play, but he was fine in 2008. Final Numbers:  51/17/55/.285/1

5.  Joey Votto - Was the Barbara Hersey to Jay Bruce’s Bette Midler. Please, like you’ve never seen Beaches. Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

4.  Alexei Ramirez - Premenopausal Alfonso Soriano showed flashes of power rather than hot flashes. Final Numbers:  65/21/77/13/.290

3.  Jacoby Ellsbury - I almost placed Ellsbury number four and Alexei Ramirez here at number three, but 50 steals make a big difference and 9 home runs aren’t exactly Juan Pierrey. And, yes, Juan Pierrey is an adjective. Look it up! Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

2.  Geovany Soto - Usually everything the Cubs fans root for turns to crizz-ap, but not this time. Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

1.  Evan Longoria - The Rays didn’t Scrooge us out of Longoria as I feared in March and Longoria didn’t Alex Gordon us out of a good rookie year. Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

I’m not the most sentimental of guys. I prefer a good donkey show to an Annie Potts Lifetime show, but I gotta be honest, I was somewhat sad to hear the news on Smoltz. At his news conference, I liked when he said this, “I don’t ever want to stick around throwing 85 MPH and trying to paint corners like a little bitch. Oh, hey Tom…didn’t see you there…” I warned everyone a month ago that Smoltz may not be able to close games again and to trade him quick fast. Yesterday, one person, who heeded my advice, approached me at the supermarket while I waited in line to buy crumpets. They shook my hand and said this, “Grey, thanks for getting me out of Smoltz when you did.” As I smiled, they continued, “And your mustache is much fuller in person.” It is. You’re welcome. Looking at the Smoltz replacements,  I’d rank the remaining Braves relievers: Soriano, Acosta then Gonzalez. This is also taking into consideration that in yesterday’s game, Acosta got the save chance and blew it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Manny Parra - The title of today’s post was almost Manny Parradiso, but that will have to wait for another day. I like him as much as I’ve liked him all along, but that’s not to say I think he’s out of the woods completely. ‘Member he was going against the D-backs, a team not known for inducing walks. Something he has been prone to this year.

Carlos Pena - Fractured his left index finger on a hit by pitch. Surprising, because if someone could swing through a hit by pitch, our money was on Carlos Pena. For the record, here are the starting 1B in the AL East: Yanks - Giambi, Sawx - Youkilis, Orioles - Millar, Rays - Hinske, Jays - Overbay. Mattingly, Murray, Willie Upshaw…where are you?

Justin Duchscherer - Not often you catch old Grey by surprise, but Just-Dooks has done the trick so far this year. (BTW, the ‘27 Yankees/’08 Tigers comparisons in the March were a bit off. Cust kayin’.)

Mike Mussina - Joins Joe Saunders atop the AL Win lead with 9 wins. Proof that not only can pigs fly, but they can make cross-country flights.

Jose Reyes - 8 HR of the year yesterday. Don’t you love when your ‘all speed guy’ hits a home run.

Jered Weaver - Possible theory, the Weaver Bros. went home two seasons ago and Jered got a real talking to about making his big brother look bad. Momma Weaver, at the behest of Jeff, pulled Jered aside and said this, “Give up four runs a game like your brother, or I won’t love you anymore.” Jered went to see his Dad in the garage, “Your mother’s got her way, that’s for sure. Listen, you give up as many earned runs as you want. Now hand me that Phillip’s head.” So you see Jered’s torn for his love of the game and his mother’s love. We’ll see what eventually wins out, but he gave up four runs to the Mariners yesterday, so right now the apron strings are still pulling.

Corey Hart - Home run courtesy of Justin Upton. Should’ve been a single.

Carlos Gonzalez - Elias Sports Bureau reports that Carlos Gonzalez hit his fifth double yesterday in his sixth MLB game, which ties a record held by the Scooter Weetoeski, Carl “Red Curb” Tyler and Ox Lester. (Actually, Elias didn’t say any of that, but it sounds like something they might say. Here’s some other things that might have been overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau. “On June 2nd, the stapler was filled twice in one day for the first time since ‘99.” “On May 28th, Billy asked one person to call him William for the first time in three weeks.” “On April 22nd, there were four crullers thrown away that were clearly labeled, “Don’t Throw Away.” No other time in the history of Elias Sports Bureau has this happened.”

Hanley Ramirez - 2 HRs and a steal yesterday. Now has 11 HR/14 Steals. Almost exactly where he was last year at this time (8/16). Last year he had his 2nd biggest steal month of the season in May when he stole 10, this year he stole 4 in the month of May. His lowest steal total for a month in two years. Remember in spring training it was announced Hanley wouldn’t steal as much this year.

Aaron Cook - Have him on a few teams. Boring, right? Boring wins titles! Write that above your Barclay Lounger as you watch TV.

Brett Myers - 7 1/3 IP, 1 hit. Gets the loss. If anyone can console him, it’s his girlfriend. She’s used to getting beaten with one hit.

Edinson Volquez - Nothing to say, but he made Utley look stupid.

Corey Patterson - He’s back up. Now the Reds fans can go seamlessly from “Boo” to “Bruce.”

Brian Fuentes - Word on The Streets of New York is they need Fuentes to fill in for Joba. Maybe next year they can turn Fuentes into a three inning starter. Buchholz would take over if Fuentes moves, but I don’t see Fuentes going anywhere in the near future.

Clayton Kershaw - The Dodgers don’t need a 5th starter for 17 games, so Kershaw’ll have time to think about yesterday’s start over the next couple weeks in the Dodger bullpen. Maybe Saito and Chan Ho will teach him what’s up. Either that or he’s playing beer pong with Broxton.

Cliff Lee - Five runs in the first three innings? No, that’s not possible. Karabell said he’d win the fictitious Fantasy Cy Young.

Jhonny Peralta/Khalil Greene - I had these two schmohawks rated about the same in the preseason. Well, I got that right. Nice zerho for six night, Jhonny, when your team scores 15. I’m never picking a guy with H as his second letter in his first name unless it actually makes phonetic sense.

Milton Bradley/David Murphy - Yeah, Josh Hamilton is amazing, but let’s give some props to the guys hitting behind them. Bradley is at 36/12/38/.324 and Murphy is at 34/7/39/5/.292. It’s hard to imagine a trio of drug addict, rage addict, and an Irishman performing at these levels all year, but let’s give them their due. 3-1 odds that Bradley and Murphy get in a fight and Murphy’s friend Sully hits Bradley over the head with a beer bottle and Bradley hurts his hamstring on the way to the ground. I’m not betting against Hamilton because he’s found God.

Dioner Navarro’s batting in the .370s. Crapoli’s got ten home runs. Olivo’s not missing Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much I thought he would. JR Towles seems at least a year away. AJ Pierzynski’s doing well — for him. Benjie Molina’s doing well — for Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez is doing well for Nick Punto.  I’ve split my teams between Navarro, Crapoli, Olivo and McCann. So far the team that has struggled most offensively is McCann. “Well, ain’t that the weirderiest of things, Grey?” Not really. And weirderiest isn’t a word. I overspent on McCann costing the rest of my team. Moral of the story. Punt catcher aka trade away any catcher that can fetch you something. So your homework assignment is to trade away Victor Martinez. If someone believes he’s going to turn it around, then turn them around, bend them over and… Well, get a piece for your team that you need. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Rickie Weeks -His current 40 runs, 7 HR, and 9 SB are comparable with Upton and Phillips. His 19 RBI are a casualty of hitting 1st on an NL team. While he hit .235 last year, he’s improved all his fundamentals, his K rate is down from 28% to 21%, but his BABIP is .229, really low for a guy his speed. He should be able to hit at least .260 the rest of the way. Assuming, of course, he stays healthy. His .201 average lets you buy low. (BTW, if those numbers above spun your head a little, just take our word for it. He’s due.)

Jeremy Guthrie - 12 starts, 10 are Quality Starts. “Well, jeez, Grey, that’s a fluke, right?” Last year, he had an ERA of 3.70 in 175 IP. Don’t make me try and guess your password and pickup Guthrie for you.

Prince Fielder - Sure, the only thing up this year is his BBs. (That’s Boca Burgers, not walks.) So what are you worried about? He’s not fat enough to hit home runs? As Richard Simmons might say, “He’s got saddlebags like I have handbags, girlfriend!”

Alex Gordon - I was really counting on him coming out the gate hitting to his ability. Well, that didn’t happen, so if you don’t have him, I’d go out and get him because he had a solid 2nd half last year.

James Shields - They took the “Devil” out of their name. You don’t have to be scared of them anymore.

Chone Figgins - I don’t like all speed guys personally, but I also ask for three plates because I don’t like my condiments mixing. You gonna do everything I do? I know Figgins’s DL’d for his legs. I also know his owners are considering dropping him and would take just about anything for him. If you have an open DL spot, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t make a run at him. Just know you may have to sit on him for three weeks to a month, but it’s a long season. That burst of speed in July may be exactly what you need.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Another sophomore (the “o” is silent, like when you make love to your woman — oofa!) that is struggling more than I would’ve liked. But he came on (your woman while you were playing fantasy baseball– ouch!) last year, and can do it again.

Justin Huber - Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Jorge Campillo - Left his last start with a finger boo-boo, so I was going to leave him off The List, but I’m mentioning him so you keep an eye on him for his next start.

Dan Wheeler - I’ll reenact a comment from late March, “The Nats say Cordero will be back next week, should I bother with Rauch?”

SELL

Joba Chamberlain - Expectations are unrealistically high. When everyone’s zigging, what do you do? Zag, man, zag. Don’t, obviously, trade him for Tony Pena Jr. and a walk-on part on Gossip Girl.

Jay Bruce - If you got him off waivers and your offense is already stacked, you could move him for a very valuable pitcher. Bruce probably won’t bat .500 for the rest of the year. Cust kayin’.

Conor Jackson - Mark Grace, who I think is the best color man currently working, watches Conor and says, “He looks a lot like me.” Gracie’s got a point.

James Loney - Gracie looks at Loney and he says, “Loney wishes he were me.”

Ryan Ludwick - The Queen’s Assassin aka Vincent can hit 25 home runs. He’s at 13. You do the math.

Carlos Gonzalez - I popped a zit into my bathroom mirror and it spelled out, “Good prospect, but little light on the seasoning. Has value in AL-only.”  What other fantasy baseball ‘pert oozes this kind of knowledge?

Adrian Gonzalez - He trends to be a 1st half player, but he doesn’t have enough trends that support me selling him for fifty pence on the pound. Get value, or hold onto him.

Ben Sheets - “Maybe I didn’t say this aloud to all of youse, but the guy can easily” search that phrase on Google and you’ll see why I’m saying to sell. BTW, in that post you find, I’m remarkably brilliant. Prescient to a tee. Mustachioed to a fault. Only the David Murphy and Justino German blurbs seem slightly off and let’s be real, neither of those things really hurt you much. *pats self on back*  Self replies, “Don’t touch me.”