Baseball’s parity is better than any other sport. You can go into the season like, say, the Rockies. No chance at all of the playoffs with no closer, no pitching, an injured offseason acquisition and be a favorite for the playoffs in July, without that offseason acquisition doing anything, not getting anything from your returning superstar shortstop and defying gravity with a pitching staff keeping a team above water even at one mile high. Then, on July 31st, parity goes out the window and all teams doing well get much better and teams struggling sell off everything. Speaking of “I’m rich bitch,” the Dodgers traded for Yu Darvish. The deadline was mostly, “Well, there goes a middle reliever,” and, “Another middle reliever? Snooze,” then, at the last moment, the Dodgers swooped in and grabbed Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani, two more middle relievers. Just like LA to want two Tonys, like Oscars aren’t enough. Oh well, nothing big this year. When, thirty-five minutes after the trading deadline, the Dodgers announced, “Psyche, fake-out, we got Darvish too.” Los Angeles is about the best landing spot a fantasy owner could hope for Darvish. He has a 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 3.81 xFIP, but was pitching in the 5th best offensive park. Hello, NL West, Dodger Stadium and facing the Giants and Padres. Now you see LA brewin? Yu sexy, get me some Trojans. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now that we are a few weeks into the second half, we are able to take a look at players and their rest of season rankings a little differently. For starters, we can see how players are starting the second half. Even though it is only a few days off (or not off, for those who participate in the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game) and is not even technically the real halfway point of the season, the All-Star break seems to hit the reset button for some players.
Some players get off to a hot start in the second half and ride the wave for a hot August and September, while others seem to lose their momentum and start off ice cold. You could write a book on the different explanations and theories about why it happens or whether or not the Home Run Derby messes up your swing or the All-Star Game schedule itself is exhausting, but we all know as fantasy owners that we have to really pay attention to our squads coming out of the break.
Players who had unreal, otherworldly breakout first halves like Aaron Judge have come back to earth a little bit, while players we had come to rely on in previous years who had disappointing first halves like Christian Yelich have gotten hot. If those disappointing players don’t get off to a good start to the second half, though, we have to make the tough decision about whether or not it is time to move on.
And that is the other way we have to look at these rankings, with time in mind. Depending on your league and format, you probably have roughly two months left in your season and about a month and a half or less until the playoffs in leagues that have them. Carlos Gonzalez is the 600th ranked player in Razzball’s year-to-date player rater, but he is still owned in 93% of RCLs and 67% of ESPN leagues as apparently, Razznation is still waiting for CarGo to turn back into the hitter he has shown he is over the year.
And while Gonzalez has been somewhat better in the second half and has sown signs of life, at some point time is going to run out. I gave up on him weeks ago and have not looked back. In the leagues where I had him I am in first or second place and am clawing to either stay there or overtake the top team, and I just don’t have any more time to wait on him. Granted, I gave up on him when it looked like he wasn’t going to have regular playing time anymore, and that is no longer the case since the Rockies can’t stay healthy, but I don’t regret the decision. Even after showing he can still hit a little in the second half, he still only has a 0.02 PR15. That isn’t enough to make me regret the decision or convince me he is going to get hot.
For Gonzalez this season, his Hard%, FB%, and HR/FB% are all down, while his AVG, OBP, and SLG are all well below his career averages. Most troubling to me is the SLG, which is currently sitting at .341. It would not be surprising to find out that he has been playing through injuries all season because 1. He is pretty much always injured and 2. These numbers are awful. You know I love creating these graphs, so check out this one:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Coors really must be messing with Lance Lynn‘s pricing today. I mean, I know Lynn isn’t Max Scherzer by any means but facing the Rockies away from Colorado can sure make you seem like it. And actually, here’s the most perplexing part of Lynn’s $14,800 price tag: the Rockies haven’t been good anywhere this year. Rockies at home? They’ve got the fifth worst wRC+ there…the Padres have better home numbers than these guys! The scary thing is, it actually gets worse on the road where they’re 3rd in wRC+ while also giving us a 24.2% K rate. If you need further proof, Leake threw 7 shutout innings against these guys last night, K’ing 6. Leake’s K/9 is 6.04 this year…and Lynn’s is 7.93. Giddy up! In all, Lynn in both cash and tourneys today should be just fine. Now that we’re done with that, let’s get on with this. Here’s my scorching hot summer taeks for this Tuesday FD slate…
New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last week, we added Tommy Pham and his pal (unconfirmed) Marwin Gonzalez to the realm of the 100. This week, we’re feeling so good that we’re moving them on up the rankings. Pham has the second best PR15 (ESPN leagues) right now (13.01), behind only the respected Coors Field masher Nolan Arenado. Marwin, while he has a respectable 5.26 PR15 that is good for 34th overall, is moving up because he suddenly has an inside track to playing time.
Someone ask Grey if I get any bonus points for running it back on players in back-to-back weeks AND rolling with a double player reference headline. I was going to go with a Gregory Polanco reference but decided Matt Adams was both more ridiculous and had the added bonus of allowing me to use former teammates (kind of). More bonus points? Let me know what Grey says.
As for Carlos Correa, well, you guys know already, right? I’m dropping him from the Top 100 because he is going to miss most of the rest of the season. He could potentially return and help you for fantasy playoffs or the last couple weeks, but we won’t know for sure for a few more weeks. This IS good news for Marwin Gonzalez, who I focused on last week, as there is suddenly another opening in the lineup for him. Obviously, hold Correa for now, but I’m dropping him from the ranks of the beloved and pouring out some Coors Light for him.
I never thought there would be a week where I would be adding Matt Adams and removing Carlos Correa. 2017 is bumming me out, but I promise to make it one full article without mentioning Super Balls (this doesn’t count!). Screw it, let’s add Steven Souza, too. He’s got 20 home runs to go with a .272 average, .239 ISO, an increased Hard%, and what looks to be an increased approach at the plate. He has been on the fringe, but I managed to make room for him this week. I give up, 2017. You hear me? I give up! You win!
Anyway, here are some other notes on the additions and subtractions for this week…Please, blog, may I have some more?
2017 has been a weird season for baseball. Not only are baseballs leaving ballparks like super balls, but players like Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison are winning fantasy leagues for people. Before the season started, I never thought I would be writing those names on this website. Now, I write them every week (Okay, usually I just have to copy/paste).
While doing some research over the All-Star break, I found more than a dozen players who had already hit more home runs in the first half of 2017 than they ever had in any other full season. That wasn’t even really what I was looking for. I just kept finding more and more of them. One of those players, as you may have guessed because of the title of this article and the number of professional baseball players named Marwin, is Marwin Gonzalez.
Gonzalez is a player I have been keeping an eye on all year and is someone commenters have been asking about a lot lately. Until recently, he still wasn’t playing every day and was moving all over the field. When he did play, though, he was mashing. Son wrote about him in his Bear or Bull series last week, and I recommend going and giving that a read. I’ll wait here while you do.
Like Son goes over in his piece, the biggest difference for Gonzalez this season has been his approach at the plate. His BB% is way up, his K% is way down, and his O-Swing% is down. That all indicates an improved approach at the plate. For proof, here’s a chart!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Aaron Judge baffles me. Is he a beefy version of early 2000s Richie Sexson, or he is something more legit? No offense to early 2000s Richie, of course. His (we’re back to Judge, now) numbers in the minors (albeit a relatively small sample size of) suggest more of the former, but his 2017 insists on the latter. Strikeouts aside, he seems to have combined a complete and nearly flawless approach at the plate with a compact swing and elite power. In March, we weren’t even sure if he was going to be the everyday right fielder for the Yankees. Now, he is a lock to win Rookie of the Year, the clear favorite to win MVP, and could very well win the Triple Crown.
He has 30 home runs to only 13 doubles (big boy has three triples, too), which means nothing except that when he connects he CONNECTS. Lifting power, my friends. The fly ball revolution is upon us, and only 50 years after Ted Williams told us all about it. And with Judge’s superhuman power, a willingness and ability to drive (and lift) the ball to the opposite field, a right field porch in Yankee Stadium that is a few feet behind first base (roughly), and juiced baseballs that are leaving parks like they’re golf balls, what is a popup behind second base for most batters is a home run to the upper deck in right field for Judge. That was a very long sentence. Let’s pause to catch our breath here.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Origin Story Alert! In the Roppongi district of Japan, which sits between Chichibunomiya and Akabanebashi, lives a puppeteer named Goshi. For his entire life, Goshi worked in the medium of strings and miniature clothes. Sometimes, due to all the opium he smokes, he’ll forget where he left off one day and start new the next day. Due to a three-year process of forgetting and starting anew, he accidentally built a puppet that was 75-feet tall and named it Marcell Ozuna. The puppet simply went by the name, OZUNA. Elsewhere in Japan, on holiday, Giancarlo Stanton arrived with his family and me in his suitcase (how I’m able to relay the story). Giancarlo was marveled at everywhere he went, due to sheer handsomeness and size. One Japanese man said of Giancarlo, “You are like Mt. Fiji of GLOW.” OZUNA and Giancarlo remained on separate paths for many moons, until one faithful day when an explosion at a nuclear plant caused a giant lizard to emerge from the ocean. That lizard’s name was Allahzilla, because it originated in the Middle East, according to scientists. Armed with merely bats, Giancarlo (3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 22nd and 23rd homers) and OZUNA (2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 23rd homer) beat back Allahzilla and the Cardinals while freeing all of humanity, and fantasy. Thanks, heroes! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Legit, this is longest July 4th weekend of all time. In 1776 on July 4th, Ben Franklin grabbed six ladies, and was like, “This will be better than Flag Day. We will call this Flagellation Day. Now twerk with a firework!” That lasted for three days until Ben yelled out an Astros’ hitter last name and called for a volunteer fire department to put out his redness. Any hoo! Ian Desmond hit the DL with “I wanna rest for a few extra days before the break.” It’s an epidemic that is going around the majors right now. This especially sucks for those that had him in their weekly lineups because you’re getting ziplock. But, for the rest of us, we got Raimel Tapia (3-for-4, 2 runs and his 2nd homer). Fun fact! He has a brother who drinks too much and can’t control his lasciviousness. His name is Felasleepon Tapia. Raimel gets a huge boost in value with Desmond’s DL stint. He’s a grab for every league, especially if you need SAGNOF. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
First Mike Trout and now our beloved Trea Turner (and a bunch in between, but we’ll focus on baseball’s young heartthrobs for the time being). The baseball Gods are clearly punishing us all for the use of juiced baseballs this season. Major League Baseball has denied any kind of change in the balls despite some mounting evidence, but I bet it is something that gets looked at and adjusted in the offseason. Which leads me to wonder whether this will be something we will be talking about come March…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Uh-oh, the double lede! This is more spectacular than the double rainbow. WHOA, DOUBLE LEDE! Alex Cobb threw a gem yesterday — 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners (2 Hits), 4 Ks, ERA at 3.73, but his brother from another mother and father, Alex Colome blew the game, going 1 IP, 2 ER, and now has given up seven earned — sevearned? — in his last three appearances. Alex Cobb carried a no-hitter into the 7th and was so good yesterday that Robert Wuhl is writing the screenplay to Cobb 2: More Corn. However, do the Rays play Blondie “Call Me” when Colome comes in? If so, stop! If not, give it a try because we need to shake things up. I grabbed Danny Farquhar before the game even ended. Lord Farq could get a few saves if Colome remains dreck. …Cause somebody once told me that Farquhar is an ‘own me,’ and I ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed! Colome was looking kind of dumb with a crooked number on the board and an L shape hanging on his scorecard. Well, the years start coming– Okay, I will stop now. In the end, Tommy Hunter got the save after the blown save, so he could also be in the mix if Colome needs a little rest. In one league, I grabbed Farquhar; in one league, I grabbed Hunter for ye ol’ hedge. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?