Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some of you will be drafting your fantasy baseball teams over at ESPN and that’s cool.  I don’t mind their drafting and league setups.  Plus, they’re free.  If you don’t like your team, do like 98% of the other people at ESPN and abandon your team in May.  But when you’re drafting at ESPN, you’re confronted by their rankings.  It’s important to know what they’re saying, so you can exploit the rankings for your greater good.  I’m going off my top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball and top 300.  So here’s some random turd nuggets from the ESPN 2010 fantasy baseball rankings:

Carl Crawford – 8 at ESPN, 19 here.  Before Miggy Cabrera, Tex, Longoria, Howard… Buh-but, Grey, isn’t 1st base deep? Yeah, and steals from an outfielder are shallow?  Oh-kay.  Because I have a photographic memory and no actual evidence to prove this, you’re gonna have to take my word for it.  Last year, Crawford was ranked somewhere in the 40s by ESPN.  Then he has a career year and he’s ranked 8th.  ESPN’s three year averages to figure out projections are done by multiplying the last year by three.

Ichiro Suzuki – 23 at ESPN, 43 here.  Probably the worst value player that is always overrated.  You need a .277 average to be competitive.  Ichiro best attribute is he can turn your average up to 11; it’s pointless.

Jose Reyes – 40 at ESPN, 18 here.  See my comment about Crawford for why they have Reyes this low.

Curtis Granderson – 55 at ESPN, 34 here.  Clara Bell wrote an interesting piece the other day about how Grandy could hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases but he’s NOT a top fifty draft option.  And, by interesting, I mean you really can’t make this shizz up.  You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, so I’ll Cliff Note it for you.  Karabell argues that Grandy is such a negative on average that he’lll cost your team dearly for those 35 homers and 20 steals.  As I’ve mentioned previously, you could have found 25 outfielders who contributed 20 steals, but only ten outfielders, who retain outfield eligibility for 2010, that had 30 homers.  Grandy fell in both categories.  Only three other outfielders did.  Also, nowhere does he mention that Granderson was about fifty points off his career BABIP and should hit closer to .275.  I don’t expect Karabell to know anything about BABIP, except Cockcroft, another ESPN Hindsighter, just wrote an article about how Granderson was unlucky with BABIP.  Maybe Karabell was too busy with a Michael Bolton from Office Space Lookalike Contest to read it.

Brandon Webb – 81 at ESPN, 175 here.  ESPN has Webb ahead of Cain, Ubaldo, Hamels, Wandy and Kershaw… As for why they ranked Webb this high, I think there’s a good chance they just totally forgot about last year.  Or maybe when they were ranking Webb, Berry farted and everyone laughed, causing them to skip over Webb’s name.

Howie Kendrick – 105 at ESPN, 200 here, about 100 picks before I have him.  Kendrick’s a good average bet that hasn’t put together one full year at the major league level.  No, thanks.

Todd Helton – 154 at ESPN, 261 here.  According to Point Shares, Helton will earn -3.38 Points.  He comes in with a -1.5 Points for homers and -1.2 for RBIs.  Nice!

Ian Stewart – 199 at ESPN, 100 here.  I’m totally waiting for them to write the Ian Stewart sleeper post, quoting their own facacta rankings.  Guys, I look like Michael Bolton, and I think Stewart’s great value ranked at 199! Actually, now that I think about it, the best thing you can do with ESPN’s rankings is send all of your leaguemates there to study them.

Have to go through a lot other ‘perts’ turd nuggets to find some kernels of truth, right?  So I took a looksie at ESPN’s mock draft.  These guys (and maybe girls, cause I don’t even recognize some names — Becquey?  Is that the phonetic pronunciation of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway’s abbreviation, BQE?  No idea.) make their living by doling out fantasy baseball advice, but, as Tim Gunn would say, the problem is they’ve been in the monkey house too long.  Here’s Gunn’s explanation, “When you first walk into the monkey house at the zoo, what do you do?  You cover your nose and think, “This place stinks!” After some time, you’ve adjusted a bit, “Well, I guess this isn’t so bad.”  Then later, you don’t even notice the smell.”  ESPN builds a bunker, doles out advice but has no idea what the stench is like.  To get poetic on you, they think their feces smells like Reese’s Pieces.

In that mock, they drafted Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Wow, Stewart has an ADP of 120 at Mock Draft Central so that’s awesome value!  The only hitch is, there’s no way anyone’s getting Stewart that late in a draft if they draft with anyone but those ESPN readers who are also in the monkey house.  The monkeys at ESPN don’t even mention Stewart was good value at 163.  You know why?  Because they have no idea.  They don’t look at anything besides what’s written at ESPN.  It’s like Hurley from Lost doling out fantasy advice.  Jack’s doing surgery, Locke’s seeing shizz and The BQE is taking Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Honestly, I’m not even sure if they have an internet connection in Bristol.  So this look at the monkeys’ mock draft may be constructive for those of you who are playing against other monkeys, but, in reality, we’re just mocking them.  Anyway, here’s some head scratchers from ESPN’s 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft:

Carl Crawford – 7th overall. Ha!  Seriously, I don’t even know what to say about this.  Michael Bourn is that different at around pick 100?  The saving grace to this pick is that it was made by Nate Ravitz, who, I believe, is the neighbor in Bewitched.  Could be wrong.

Joe Mauer – 14th overall.  Bewitched neighbor grabbed him too.  So with Mauer and Crawford he’s looking at about 35 homers combined for his first two picks.  Guess he’s punting power.  Yeah, he just lost.  Thanks for playing.

Ryan Howard – 18th overall.  This is the last player I’m looking at that was taken way later than they will normally go. (Kinsler at 21?!  Wait, did they do this mock draft in 2007 and forget to post it?)  Howard is a great pick at 18.  Again, ain’t happening in the real world, so I’m done looking at value picks in this draft.

Derek Jeter – 25th overall.  I actually like Tristan Cockcroft (who is a Yankee fan and maybe why he made this pick), but Jeter at 25th overall is just silly.  Maybe Cockcroft is hoping for a wedding invite.  Not sure; let’s not dwell.

Javier Vazquez – 61st overall.  That’s around where his ADP is,  but I have him ranked around 135th overall.  I might need to do an overrated post on him.

Yovani Gallardo – 69th overall.  The BQE goes for YoGa about 40 spots before he should, but not nearly as bad as…

Brandon Webb – 98th overall.  They are totally reprinting a 2007 draft just to see if anyone will notice.  Very sneaky.

James Shields – 152nd overall.  Not a pick I would make, but this isn’t so much about the time Shields was drafted.  The real knee to the balls is in the comments where they wrote, “Becquey takes James Shields with pick No. 152, and many lament that Shields is off the board.”  Why? Because of his mediocre K-rate?  Is it his increasing walk rate?  Is it his inability to pitch in away games?  Is it his division?  Are they using a new definition of lament?  Seriously, I have to stop before I get an aneurysm.

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, finishing up the infield for our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  What I found overall from ranking the outfielders is that speed’s back like the go-go 80s when half the league was on coke.  So I ranked power outfielders ahead of ones whose value came from speed.  More on that in the post.  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Ryan Braun’s 2010 projections.

2. Matt Kemp – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Kemp’s 2010 projections.

3. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Ellsbury.  I call this tier, “Still number one outfielders.”  See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Holliday’s 2010 projections.

4. Grady Sizemore – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Grady Sizemore’s 2010 projections.

5.  Carl Crawford – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Carl Crawford’s 2010 projections.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned before on this blog, speed guys are a lot like new cars.  The minute you drive a speed guy off the lot, he loses a lot of value.  Don’t believe me, try to trade Ellsbury for a guy of similar value.  A guy who can easily go 10/60 needs to be in the top of the outfield rankings, but I tend to look for speed from SAGNOF middle infielders (Andrus, Everth Cabrera, etc) or later round SAGNOF outfielders (Pierre, Borbon, etc).  Is it nice to have an Ellsbury-type and not have to worry about steals later?  Sure, but if something happens to Ellsbury and your entire team is built to not worry about steals, you may have to worry.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

7. Justin Upton - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Bay.  I call this tier, “Who said the outfield is deep?”  Above, there’s four power threats and two speed threats, now a guy that went 26/20.  Wow.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Justin Upton, but this is the top of the outfield?  Where did the Carlos Lees, Mannys, Sorianos and Berkmans go?  As mentioned earlier in the preseason, you could’ve found 27 players who contributed 20 steals, but only eleven outfielders that had 30 homers.  Obviously testing for steroids is working better than testing for Red Bull.  re: Upton; His fly balls fell and his homers surged.  Not a great recipe for success.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a holding pattern in 2010 rather than a huge step forward.  But his holding pattern is still better than most players’ peak and the high ranking is also for his tremendous upside.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

8. Curtis Granderson – Don’t blame me for this ranking; blame the outfield.  Where else am I supposed to rank a guy who can steal 20 bags and hit 30 homers?  I know his splits; I know the so-called psychological toll playing for the Yanks takes; I also know he can pull 30 homers over the short porch without much effort.  As I said when Grandy was traded, the average last year should’ve been higher.  He’s not going to win a batting title, but .275 is doable.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

9. Jayson Werth – It feels like people don’t trust Werth, but he’s been caught stealing 4 times in 44 attempts in the last two years and his power doesn’t look fluky.  From May to September, he hit at least 6 homers every month so it’s not like his numbers were inflated with an insane month or two.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – He’s definitely shown he can’t be relied on for 20 homers, but you can count on him for 40 steals and 10 homers.  The low average can only partially be written off as bad luck; he also swung at more balls outside the strike zone.  I think they’re tied together.  He was unlucky, started pressing and things got progressively worse.  At least that’s my missing bang theory.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

11. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s my thought on Ichiro.  Yes, he hits .330+ consistently, but your fantasy baseball team only needs around .280 to be in contention.  You should get .280 with a few .260 hitters, a few .280 hitters and a few .300 hitters.  So Ichiro’s unnecessary average gorging.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

12. Jason Bay – He nearly ended up in the next tier.  What held him out was his ability to steal.  Just don’t trust him like I should considering his year in, year out numbers.  I have this feeling that he will hit 25 homers and steal 5 bags with a .265 average.  My fears are probably unrealistic.  Like my fear of electric eels.  (<–Yes, I’m on Twitter, but I don’t check it much, so, yeah, do what you do.)  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

13. Adam Lind – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Markakis.  I call this tier, “Power threats with weak speed.”  There’s instances when I would skip this tier and jump to the next one.  If I drafted Ryan Howard in the first round, I’d want someone from the tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  (That tier starts in the top 40 outfielders, which can be found in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings once it’s posted.)  The reason why the power threats with weak speed came first in the rankings is because power is a lot harder to come by than speed.  I know, tell that to 1998 and it would laugh.  Okay, now about Lind.  It’s weird how I feel like sometimes a hitter breaks out and everyone scrambles for him, then other times a hitter breaks out and people are tepid about believing it.  Lind broke out last year.  There’s no reason to believe he’s going to lapse into bust territory this year.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

14. Josh Hamilton – Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

15. Andre Ethier – I still find it hard to believe Ethier’s power, so I can’t promise you I wouldn’t skip over Ethier in a draft if I felt a real power squeeze on my fantasy team.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

16. Carlos Quentin – Here’s an extended look at Carlos Quentin for 2010 fantasy baseball.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

17. Nelson Cruz – I was tempted to put Cruz even higher, but then I realized Bill James’s projections of 36 homers and 21 steals with a .284 average shouldn’t be taken at face value.  James sure has it bad for Rangers, huh?  If Cruz were to reach those projections, that’s number one outfielder shizz.  But we’ll try and be a bit more sober with him.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

18. Adam Dunn – Dunn’s projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for fantasy baseball post.

19. Adam Jones – A record breaking third Adam makes the top 20 outfielders.  Four seems out of reach, unless when someone says Adam Lambert plays for the other team, they mean a baseball team.  Jones got knocked out of almost all of September with a strained ankle, but he should be ready to go in time for spring training.  At 24, he should be able to take the next step with his power and speed.  I’m very excited about watching Pacman make it rain this year.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

20. Nick Markakis - After last season only true loyalists would stand up and shout, “I am Sparkakis!”  He doesn’t have much more than 25 homer power or 10 steal speed. (He does have more speed, but I think the Orioles are slowing him for risk of injury.)  But he won’t kill you on average, Runs or RBIs.  Not as exciting as once perceived, but still solid.  So maybe it’s “I am Sparkakis” with a period rather than an exclamation point.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

Just went over the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball and today we give you our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Then we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you.  In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love, battling with myself on just about every spot.  I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players.  The 2nd round is easily the hardest round to peg.  In some cases, I think I’d prefer the 3rd round to the 2nd round.  Yes, the 3rd round is the new 2nd round.  This will probably need its own post.  As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

11. Evan Longoria -  As mentioned in the top 10 rankings post, this continues the previous tier of players.  This tier started at Teixeira and will end at Wright.  Longoria feels like he should be in the Braun and Kemp class of players that could conceivably get better.  The strikeouts aren’t pretty and will hinder his average to an extent, but the power and speed are there.  He ranked above Wright because of his power.  At 3rd base, you want a guaranteed 30 homers more than a guaranteed 15 steals.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – 12th was the absolutely latest I was able to rank a guy who has back-to-back seasons of 260 Ks.  Sure, I don’t like taking pitching in the early rounds, but it’s hard to argue with a guy whose FIP was 2.34 and who lowered his walk rate.  The only knock on Lincecum is his lower back issues towards the end of 2009 and his resemblance to k.d. lang.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – As I mentioned in the opening, this 2nd round is tricky and has a lot to do with who you took in the first round.  If you took A-Rod, then you don’t take Wright.  But imagine pairing Ryan Howard with David Wright.  That’s like pairing Boone’s Strawberry Hill with a chili dog.  That’s a meal fit for a king!  Prior to last year, three of the last four years Wright’s HR/FB rates were above 16 percent.  Last year, he had a home run to fly ball rate of 6.9.  So I’m chalking some of last year up to bad luck.  Now consider he’s still capable of 20 steals and a .300 average.  Even if Metco’s fences stay in the outer boroughs, Wright can be very valuable.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Ian Kinsler – This begins a new tier.  This tier is called, “Why is the 2nd round so tricky this year?”  This tier goes from here to Gonzalez.  I can’t remember a year when I’ve been so legitimately flummoxed with the 2nd round.  Is Kinsler great?  Sure.  Do I feel 100% confident in him?  As about as confident as I would practicing the withdrawal method with Octo-Mom. Kinsler isn’t a great average hitter, but he’s better than the .253 he showed last year.  He’s not a .300 hitter either.  He’s a near lock for 25/25 at 2nd base and that carries a lot of weight.  Is he that different than Brandon Phillips? They’re both six-feet tall, weigh around 200 lbs, injured more times than I’d like and their birthdays are six days apart. Maybe they’re one player pulling The Alex P. Keaton When He Had Two Dates For The Prom And He Had To Keep Switching His Tie trick.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

15. Matt Holliday – I just went over my Holliday fantasy last week so I’m not going to beat Secretariat.  I’ll only say that I don’t think Holliday is necessarily the hitter we saw in the 2nd half times two.  He goes on hot streaks, that’s what last year’s 2nd half was.  In 2006 and 2007 on the Rockies, he hit 10 and 12 homers in the month of September respectively.  In 2005, he hit 15 homers post-All-Star Break and four before.  When the games are on the line for real baseball and H2H, Holliday is there.  Sometimes that’s frustrating with roto.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

16. Troy Tulowitzki – I tried to drop Tulo as low as I could because he’s deriving a lot of his value from his 2009 steals.  As I said at the end of the season last year, “I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.”  And that’s me quoting me!  The reason why I couldn’t drop him any lower is because of his position, his park, his age and his power.  Remember if you draft him, he doesn’t start playing until May at the earliest.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – I already went over in my Grady Sizemore 2010 fantasy baseball post-a-ma-thing-whosies.  After his girlfriend revealed photos of Grady visually detailing his sports hernia recovery, he revealed he’d be ready for the start of 2010.  I believe him.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Carl Crawford – Every time I looked at Crawford, I kept thinking to myself, where’s Ellsbury?  They should be right next to each other, shouldn’t they?  After all, their names together sound like a law firm.  Crawford benefits from just a bit more power, but his knees are getting creaky and we rely on his speed for a lot of his value.  Honestly, I’m hoping he gets off to a hot start and I can tell you to sell him at the end of May.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

19. Adrian Gonzalez – The 20th pick is not an easy one.  I pieced together different draft scenarios with glue and old issues of TV Guide and it spelled out A-Gonz.  If my fantasy baseball ransom note meant Alex Gonzalez, I apologize.  I just can’t get past that I want a 1st baseman in the first few rounds.  And, most importantly, I want a guy I can rely on.  Votto is great, but he probably won’t sniff 35+ homers, Morneau is fine but his power and health are wonky, Carlos Pena is fine, but he’s a .250 hitter going on a .230 one.  Obviously, if you own Fielder, Tex or Howard, you’re not taking Gonzalez.  I think last season was Gonzalez’s power peak, but it was still solid.  He should more or less maintain it.  One thing to be aware of is his involuntarily climbing walk rate.  That’s what hitting behind Sub Standard and in front of Nadir Bupkis will do to you.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

20. Jimmy Rollins – Rollins didn’t really do anything wrong in 2009.  Sure, he had a bad average.  But that wasn’t his fault.  He was 40 points off his career BABIP.  He’s not a .290 hitter, but he’s not a .250 hitter either.  Even with that terrible average, he scored 100 runs.  Unlike Benjamin Button, he’s not getting any younger so I think the steals will continue to decline, but not noticeably for 2010.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

After the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three big names that were purposely omitted:

Joe Mauer – Just went over the overrated Mauer and Mark Reynolds overrated posts.  But I felt that I needed to address the two elephants in the room again.  Mauer’s HR/FB rate was through the roof last year.  In 2008, he hit 139 fly balls and 9 homers.  In 2009, 137 fly balls and 28 homers.  There’s no way he hits 28 homers again.  Then throw in the wear and tear he takes at his position and how he’s already battled more injuries than the “merely a flesh wound” guy.  Then throw in he’s tops at a weak position.  I.e., is there that much difference between him and Napoli?  Sure, on average and Runs.  Not much elsewhere.  See catcher, punt catcher.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

Mark Reynolds – Guys (and two girl readers), this is 2010.  Don’t draft for 2009.  Reynolds had an incredible year last year and hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April and June?  You’re gonna be looking to start a midseason fantasy baseball league cause your preseason one got bungled.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

Jose Reyes – Wait, so he’s washed up at the age of 26?  So he went from a top three pick to out of the top 20 because he was injured last year?  C’mon.  This isn’t about last year.  Sure, he was a miserable prick last year for getting injured and ruining your fantasy team.  How dare he!  But that was last year.  Now this year, he has a something roid… Oh, thyroid.  Right.  It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley…  It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it.  2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45

Gone over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, shortstops and 3rd basemen.  Guess what’s next!  The title might have gave it away.  With the top 20 outfielders a pattern emerges.  Steroids can be tested for, but Red Bull can’t.  It was the summer of speed and somewhere Ron LeFlore smiles.  Since outfield is a deep position, I think I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Those will be here on Thursday.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Carl Crawford – For four years, Crawford was featured prominently in the top of the preseason rankings for outfielders, and, in 2009, he finally fulfilled that promise by ranking first overall at the end of the season.  Wouldn’t you know it, last year was not one of those top preseason ranking years.  After an abysmal 2008, Crawford’s stock did a Triple Lindy coming into 2009.  Then he exploded for 21 steals in May and he looked like he might surpass Lou Brock’s career total by August.  Unfortunately, he slowed down in the 2nd half.  Let’s hope it wasn’t his knee shouting expletives at the artificial turf.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/15/68/.305/60

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – Hamilton-Burrishly, Ellsbury and Crawford dueled during the regular season to see who would steal more bases, Ellsbury won the battle, but Crawford the war.  On a sidenote, not such a great sign that the top two outfielders gave a majority of value with the steal.  Where’s the 40 homer outfielders?  There were none.  Not even Adam Dunn.  That’s something that will need to be addressed in its own post during the offseason.  Seems like something for December Grey.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40, Final Numbers:  94/8/60/.301/70

3. Ryan Braun – I said this the other day when talking about Evan Longoria, but it applies here, as well.  Braun may not have been a disappointment per se, but eff “per se” in its Frenchy-sounding goolie.  I wanted 40 homers from Braun!  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15, Final Numbers:  113/32/114/.320/20

4. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said last January, “I not only bought into the Matt Kemp hype, I rolled it up in decorative sugar and began to sell it at a local bake sale.  You want someone in the fourth round in 2009 that could be a first or second rounder in 2010?  Matt Kemp’s your man, man.  He’s the future, kids.”  And that’s me quoting me!  And me was right.  Next year, I’m taking Kemp in the 1st round and I’m going to like it.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/24/80/.295/30, Final Numbers:  97/26/101/.297/34

5. Ichiro Suzuki – The average is great, the steals are okay, the homers are bleh.  Another Ichiro year.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35, Final Numbers:  88/11/46/.352/26

6. Matt Holliday – Did it help his RBIs to bat behind Pujols?  Probably.  Maybe a few more homers than if he stayed with the A’s?  Yup, but as you see from my preseason projections he was pretty much in line with what I thought he’d do.  He was scorching hot when he went from the A’s to the Cards.  I believe that he would’ve been hot in the 2nd half no matter where he played.  Next year when people are saying he’ll return to 30 homers, I’m going to say again he’s a 25 home run hitter.  Unless he signs with the Rockies or the Yankees.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12, Final Numbers:  94/24/109/.313/14

7. Bobby Abreu – Who would’ve put three Angels in the top 20 in the beginning of the year?  Gene Autry’s Ghost, perhaps.  But not many people.  I thought Abreu would steal a bit more on the Angels, but I thought the years of 30 steals were long gone.  Preseason Rank #25, 2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  96/15/103/.293/30

8. Michael Bourn – Speed is definitely in a renaissance.  It’s like the go-go 80s with Rock Raines sniffing coke off of the dashboard of Keith Hernandez’s El Dorado.  All we need now is for Okrent to send out the standings in the mail.  Makes you wonder if speed would’ve ever left the scene if it wasn’t for steroids.  Preseason Rank #66, 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40, Final Numbers:  97/3/35/.285/61

9. Adam Lind – I’ve already talked a bit about my thoughts on Lind for 2010.  Right now, we’re talking about 2009, ya’ll.  He’ll be the magical 27 years old in 2010.  Shoot, we’re talking about 2009.  Um, he had a good year.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  (There will be more to come!)  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3, Final Numbers:  93/35/114/.305/1

10. Jayson Werth – Hopefully you didn’t abandon ship when he got off to a rocky April start (2 homers, 10 RBIs).  After that, Werth ended up having a very consistent season, hitting at least 6 homers every month.  Then he chucked in 5 steals in four games of October because he obviously owned himself in a H2H league.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17, Final Numbers:  98/36/99/.268/20

11. Jason Bay – Now for the inconsistent Jason.  He hit 19 of his homers in two months of the season (May and August).  In July, he hit 1 homer and drove in only 5 runs.  On the bright side, he must’ve realized he was starring in a donkey show with him being the donkey because he contributed 6 steals in July.  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.267/13

12. Justin Upton – I see your love for B.J. and I raise you a 20/20/.300 season.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.260/7, Final Numbers:  84/26/86/.300/20

13. Kendry Morales – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post. Final Numbers:

14. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:

15. Shin-Soo Choo – I wonder if there’s a fantasy baseball blogger in Korea writing Torii Hunter is the American Shin-Soo Choo.  Things that make you say hmm…  Preseason Rank #51, 2009 Projections:  70/16/70/.280/11, Final Numbers:  87/20/86/.300/21

16. Denard Span – Did I underestimate Denard Dawg’s relevance in the beginning of the season?  I don’t think so, since my projections were pretty spot-on.  So why did I rank him 53rd?  Because I didn’t realize how few homers would come out of the outfield in 2009.  You could’ve found 27 guys who contributed 20 steals, but how many guys hit 30 homers?  11 guys.  To be continued… Preseason Rank #53, 2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20, Final Numbers:  97/8/68/.311/23

17. Torii Hunter – On July 3rd, I told you to sell Hunter when he was at 17/13.  In the last three months, he went 5/5.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #30, 2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  74/22/90/.299/18

18. Nyjer Morgan – Let’s reenact the day Nyjer was traded from the Pirates.  “Nyjer, you’ve been traded.”  A five minute dance, followed by ten minutes of celebratory hoots and hollers as he lets everyone know how glad he is to be out of the Pirates organization.  “Nyjer, you’re going to the Nats.”  Nyjer cries.  Then he devotes himself to proving the Pirates wrong as he hits .351 with the Nats and steals 24 bases in 49 games.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/3/39/.307/42

19. Johnny Damon – The Yankees figured out a way to reverse the effects of all of their aging players.  Have them play in a Little League field.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20, Final Numbers:  107/24/82/.282/12

20. Shane Victorino – Wait, Denard Dawg was supposed to be emulating Victorino.  Teacher, student… Not student, teacher.  Not student, teacher!  Victorino’s season worries me a bit because he did much better last year in 50 less at-bats.  In 620 ABs in 2009, his stats should look better.  I’ve already had my love of Sparkakis desecrated this year.  Not you too, Victorino… Please.   Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35, Final Numbers:  102/10/62/.292/25