Fantasy Baseball Advice

Guess what, ya’ll? Carl Crawford is going to hit 40 home runs and steal, like, 60 bases and hit over .350. Carl Crawford will also win the Roberto Clemente Award and the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award for his relief work off and on the field. Or so went the many years of ‘pert predictions for Carl Crawford. Then each season came and went and Crawford’s respective home run tallies look like this: 11, 15, 18, 11 and 8. Not exactly the development of power that people expected. (Show you care, take ‘roids!) So can Crawford be relied on as a keeper? Definitely. (Of course, depending on the circumstances.) Will Crawford develop the power that has been lusted after for so long? Doesn’t look that way. 20 home runs might be his ceiling, but ten to fifteen home runs with forty steals gives him solid keeper value. Now for this week’s keeper post I’m going to look at some guys that are more or less Carl Crawford. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

Psyche! Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment. Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell. Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday. As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

KEEP

Jacoby Ellsbury - Profiles as a Cheap Carl Crawford, which can also be expressed as, “No way, Longoria! You ate so much more than me. We’re not splitting the check evenly.”

Matt Kemp - Can be what the ‘perts always thought Carl Crawford would be, so Matt Kemp is a Best Case Scenario Carl Crawford — a number three hitter who hits twenty-five home runs and steals forty bases. Otherwise known as “Carl Crawford wearing his big boy pants.”

Alexis Rios - Rios performed almost exactly like an Underperforming Carl Crawford. Though next year, Rios could easily produce more home runs and less steals making him a candidate for the Looked Like an Underperforming Carl Crawford Last Year and This Year He Looks Like Corey Hart. (If you don’t have to read that last sentence more than once, then you’ve smoked too much pot in your life.)

DON’T KEEP

Ichiro Suzuki - A Japanese Carl Crawford. I don’t think Ichiro will be completely unusable, but he stole 9 bases in the 2nd half this year and hit 3 home runs. Imagine if he hits ten home runs, steals twenty-five and hits .320 next year, would that be something you’d be interested in?

Milton Bradley - An Angry, Injury-Prone Carl Crawford that will stick a hot poker into your eye if you say anything bad about him, then he will burn his little pinkie with that same poker and miss a month of the season without ever going on the DL.

Our boy Timmy took a Lincecumbacker to the knee. Not good if you’ve been riding his amazing 12-3 record (for the Giants?!?!), sub 3.00 ERA, and 10 K/9 IP.  He hobbled out of the game.  We’ll have to see if he’s as bad off as our other favorite Timmy but start scouting pitchers just in case.

In other injury news, there is the Flyin’ Hawaiian and The Overrated Mulatto. Shane Victorino came out of yesterday’s game with stiffness in his back, while Jeter left the game with a foot injury after fouling a ball off it earlier in the game. Both players are listed as day to day, which is sports journalist code for “I have no idea.” I wish I could get away with this in my every day life. Are you going to pickup dinner? Day to day. What’s that sore on your lip? Day to day. Why are you peeing on my leg? Day to day. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford - It’s official. He’s done. Off to have surgery. This is probably a blessing for your team in some leagues. Crawford wasn’t having the best year, yet you had to start him because he was Crawford. Buh-bye.

Evan Longoria - I’d expect him to miss the rest of the season too, but the Rays are saying he should be back by September 1st.

David Ortiz - 2 HRs in the 1st inning with 6 RBIs. It’s the kind of inning that makes owners drool. Ortiz is now on pace for 430 HRs and 1.7 million RBIs for the rest of the year. He might fall short. Let’s not forget he did hit the HRs against Scott Feldman. If you’re not familiar with the name, that means you’re not related to Scott Feldman. Congratulations. Let’s not forget, Part II: The Return of More Deflating News From Grey, Ortiz was just complaining of a sore wrist.

Emilio Bonifacio - Since going 8-for-18, he’s gone 0-for-20. If he keeps going from feast to famine like this, the Nats might have to make Bonifacio watch the very special episode of The Facts of Life when Blair had an eating disorder.

Randy Johnson - 7 starts, 6 wins, 1.58 ERA and a .85 WHIP. Obviously, he’s ownable in every league. Even two team leagues where the other guy’s already quit.

Jermaine Dye - Hit his 28th HR yesterday. I picked him up off waivers in my 15 team ‘pert league back in April, but I’ve since traded him and Kouzmanoff to the ghost of George Carlin, which I kinda regret.

Lance Berkman - HR yesterday after hitting only two since July 1st. He was due for a cold spell. Too bad he’s not injury prone like Chipper so you could’ve just replaced him for a month or two.

Felipe Lopez - Landed in perhaps the only place where he could actually have value, St. Louis. If LaRussa can turn Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis into serviceable nine hitters, he might make Lopez into a decent number 2. And a “decent number two” is exactly what Lopez is.

Johan Santana - 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks. Has only struckout ten or more batters in a game twice this year. Cust kayin’.

Pedro Feliciano - Won the bullpen paper, rock scissors and got the save.

Mike Cameron/Jody Gerut - Two Carlos Lee replacements, two home runs yesterday.

Austin Kearns - 2-for-4 with a steal. My third Carlos replacement.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I don’t currently have him on a team, but he might be heating up again after hitting well in July. (He was not good in August thus far.)

Brad Ziegler - Save yesterday. Officially the A’s closer and he’s pitched 38 straight scoreless innings.

Gio Gonzalez - 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks. After watching him pitch well last week (minus the first inning), I held onto him and was rewarded tonight with Savviest Fantasy Baseball Owner for August 12th. First, I wanna thank God. Without him, none of this would be possible. Second, I wanna thank Yahoo for having Gio Gonzalez in your database. We had some touch and go moments this season, but you came through when I needed you. Third, I wanna thank Aaron Cook for shitting the bed a couple of starts in a row and forcing me to pick a pitcher off waivers.

Gary Sheffield - 2 HRs yesterday. He obviously hit these homers because he was pissed off he was being placed on waivers. Can’t they hire someone to come into the locker room to insult Sheff? “Yo mama is so fat, she can only fit into a throwback Cecil Fielder jersey.” Maybe they can get Wilmer Valderrama.

Mark Reynolds/Krispie Young/Adam Dunn - .246/.235/.235/ respectively. Stinker to Whatevers to Fat Chance.

Carlos Lee is hurt. Bad. He broke his left pinkie finger sending him to the DL. This also can’t be good for his Dr. Evil impersonation. Chances are he won’t be back this year. I’ve gone ahead and cut him in a 15-team league. Currently, my Carlos Lee replacement is Mike Cameron/Austin Kearns. Mike Cameron’s been hot and… I can’t even justify Austin Kearns, though he did hit a home run yesterday. This hurts everyone in the Astros lineup and their pitching staff, which will now receive even less run support. Too bad, because, with that Randy Wolf acquisition, they were really looking like legit contenders for fifth place in the Wild Card standings. Now the Braves might have their number. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford - The other “Carl loss” is our good friend, Carl Crawford. Looks like it was a bad year to predict he would finally show some power. However, it was a good year for me to trade him for Ryan Braun about two months ago. Phew. The right hand injury that forced Carl Crawford to the DL could force him out of action for the rest of the season. I would not drop Crawford just yet, because he thinks he’ll be back in 15 days. We’ll see. This opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli to get quickly injured, Cliff Floyd to throw a tantrum and Gabe Gross to pickup the pieces. Hopefully you have different options than the Rays.

Chris Carpenter - Right triceps strain. At the best, gone for a start. At the worst, gone ’til March. You shouldn’t have been counting on Carpenter for much anyway.

Brad Lidge - Complaining of a sluggish shoulder. Hopefully no one puts salt on it. (Get it? Cause if you put salt on a slug…Oh, forget it.) Ryan Madson got the save yesterday. Chad Durbin got the save on Saturday. Probably will be some combination of the two (or even JC Romero, if the matchup is right) that will fill-in for Lidge. If this doesn’t turn into a 15-day DL stint for Lidge, I’d be shocked. If the Phillies push him through, it could turn into a “Lidge hopes to be ready for spring training”-type deal.

Orlando Hudson - Will need season-ending surgery to fix a dislocated wrist. If you were counting on O-Dog for anything, you have bigger fish to fry. This boosts Conor Jackson’s value a bit because he’ll be inserted into the three hole on a regular basis. Looks like Upton will have to find someone else to carry him around.

Aaron Harang - 4 IP, 8 ER. Good to see him pickup right where he left off.

Scott Rolen - Placed on the DL with a sore shoulder that has caused him problems in the past. Unless you’re in a league that only used aging vets that are drafted on name recognition alone, you probably didn’t have Rolen anyway. And, if you’re in a league like that, grab Aurilla. He’ll suit you just fine.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 K. The C. Lee that didn’t break any hearts this weekend.

Mike Hampton - 4 IP, 6 ER. After the game, he didn’t say, but should have said, “I sucked, but that shouldn’t surprise you.”

Todd Helton - If you just read his name and said to yourself, “Oh, wow! I totally forgot Todd Helton existed.” You’re not alone. Helton had a minor setback and now might not return this season.

Carlos Quentin - HR yesterday. 10th since the All-Star Break. Making a strong case for AL MVP and being pretty overvalued next year.

Manny Parra - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats. Ah, to pitch against the Nats, if only you weren’t followed by Backne. Parra, “Hey, Billingsley, I saw Kuo blew your lead–” “Actually, Alyssa Milano is blowing my lead right now.”

Fernando Rodney - Got the save yesterday, but the Tigers made it a five run game in the bottom of the 8th so it wasn’t a traditional save. As to who would get the ball in a traditional save opportunity, whoever Leyland wants to point his yellow-stained finger towards. My guess is Rodney, Zumaya and Farnsworth, in that order.

Huston Street - Not sure how far down the depth chart Street’s fallen? He entered the 5th inning  yesterday and gave up 3 runs. Joey Devine might get a save before Street. (BTW, Street only had 18 saves in three quarters of the season. You gotta ask yourself how badly do you want those other five saves he might get.)

Lastings Milledge - Hit another HR yesterday. Has 5 HRs in the last ten games. Might give Mike Cameron a run for the least owned 20/20 man in the history of fantasy baseball.

Emilio Bonifacio - 0-for-6 and nary a hit all weekend. I’m giving him until the end of the week and then will reevaluate. To try and jumpstart Bonifacio, I’m wearing a rally merkin (Weird Thing of the Day) on my head.

Is there another pitcher that tantalizes more than Chad Billingsley? 13Ks in 7 IP against the Marlins to earn his 9th win. His 135 K’s are tied with Lincecum for the major league lead - a couple more than guys like Volquez and Sabathia. Why is someone so unhittable not an elite pitcher yet? Because he’s still hanging out too much with Motley Crue on the Sunset Strip - as in he likes to take a ride on the Wild Side w/ his 4+ BB per 9 IP. Yes, we’ve managed a hip-hop and hair band music references in one post. We’re well-rounded like that. (If we were celebrities, we’d so beat Reege on Celebrity Jeopardy! and give all the money to anyone who lives in a bubble. Cause really is there anything worse? You’re in a freakin’ bubble! How is this not the number one charity on every celebrity gameshow? BTW, if you live in a bubble, do you have to dust? We have to know!) While Rudy is still patting himself on the back for getting him a couple starts back for a still healthy Matt Capps, the window is near closed to pick up as good a dark horse for NL 2nd half Cy Young as you’re going to find. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Takashi Saito - Came out of Saturday’s game with elbow pain. Time for some math, ya’ll — Pitcher + elbow pain = Broxton closer for at least two weeks as Saito hits the DL.

Jhonny Peralta - He was so insulted by our lumping him in with fellow extraneous H Khalil Greene that he finishes the half with a flourish — 11-for-30 / 7R / 4 HR / 12 RBI in his last 7 games.

A.J. Burnett - The #1 crazy hot chick in baseball. Today against the Yanks, hot. Next start, pretending to be pregnant so you can’t watch football. Worth the gamble if you need K’s or agita.

Kevin Youlikis - Left the game after being hit by a Daniel Cabrera fastball. Youch. The tragic part. Cabrera was trying to throw a pitchout.

Hanley Ramirez/Carl Crawford - Sat because of a sore shoulder and a sore hamstring respectively. Don’t be too concerned; this is like Senior Day in the majors. I hear they’re all meeting at The Max then going to TP Mr. Beldings’.

Mike Gonzalez - Kazaam!

Jorge Campillo - On my cursed ‘pert team (Rich Hill, Harang and Wainwright), I had Campillo. He pitched well then fouled a ball off his foot in the sixth. Hopefully he’ll be all right. Otherwise, I’m going for Charlie Morton. You’ve been warned.

CC Sabathia - CG, 9Ks, 2 ER. Seems to be a good fit in Milwaukee. Schmiel, Schmazzle, Hossenfeffer Incorporated…ba pa ba pa ba ba pa…they’re gonna do it….CC and Prince sharing a carefree ride on a tandem bicycle, CC blowing a bubble with sausage casing at a bratwurst factory and sticking it on top of a brat….

Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks, now has a 11-2 record. Somehow the Giants are ahead of both the Padres and Rockies right now. Wow. I’m not sure if that’s more a compliment to Lincecum or a kick in the nuts to the Padres and Rockies. (BTW, Does a kick in the nuts hurt more or less when you’re a mile high?)

Justin Verlander - Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area. When Rudy predicted him to win Cy Young, he assumed that Verlander was going to pitch like this and not take April off. Kudos to anyone who picked him up on the cheap.

Jeff Clement - HR yesterday. His .165 AVG shows that Seattle can get the same production from young players that they normally get from high-salaried guys like Sexson, Kenji, and Vidro. Clement’s got upside though…keep him around if you’re in a 2 catcher league. Otherwise, throw him back into the FA pool.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Dice-K’s now 10-1. I say smoke. You say mirrors. I say smoke. You say mirrors. If you think a .257 BABIP and 5.68 BB/9 IP is unsustainable, say “Regression”….

Jerry Hairston Jr. - Left the game with a right hamstring pull. 1800 miles away, Scott Hairston yelped in pain.

Matt Joyce - 4 HR in 5 games for Detroit. Guess Marcus Thames gave him the HR conch shell. His minor league stats point to power with no speed or great average. Ride him while he’s high, drop him when he starts falling.

Mike Aviles - Three hit game yesterday. He’s at 21/4/21/.310/3 over 58 games. If I’m not wrong, aren’t these numbers pretty yawnstipating? I get more questions about this schmohawk. People got rookie nookie on the brain. Aviles is fine, but he’s not F-I-N-E or winning you any league, unless you’re playing in the “Most Mediocre SS League,” but then you’re probably going to lose to the team with Renteria anyway.

Pat Burrell - HR yesterday. Goes into the All-Star break with 23/57/.275. Is it me or does he run like he’s on a mop pony? It’s like he’s accompanying King Arthur to find the Holy Grail. The 1B coach should have to hit coconuts together when he runs. I’m sure Victorino can supply the coconuts.

Alexis Rios hit three balls hard and one to the base of the centerfield wall that is a home run if it’s hit anywhere else. Finally, he’s hot. Hopefully Alexis Rios’s slump is done and his hot streak goes straight through the All-Star break and into October. He owes me! The fact that he only has four home runs thus far is an injustice to mankind (not the WWE wrestler who writes the occasional book and wears flannel). Joe Inglett has two home runs! Are you kidding me? Alexis Rios is another two week slump away from me reenacting Celtic Pride and kidnapping him. Stay hot, Rios. You’ve been warned. (BTW, while watching the Rios game, I was eating dinner with my girlfriend–she made a Sloppy Faux, which is a Sloppy Joe with fake meat. Don’t worry, I’m not a vegetarian; she is. And when she cooks, I eat. But I digress within the digression. So Rios hits the ball to deep center and I get excited. Then she says, “So you have real enthusiasm for a guy you have on a fake team?” Hmm… Maybe I care too much.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rick Ankiel - Hit two HRs yesterday. (Am I the only one who wants the Cardinals to go into the 18th inning of a game and bring Ankiel in to pitch?)

Kyle Kendrick - He’s 7-3. Johan Santana called, he wants his win-loss record back. (Here’s my October prediction. The Phils make it to the playoffs and Kyle Kendrick is something like 15-10. Then in the third game of the 1st series, Kendrick is shelled and Joe Morgan says, “Kendrick had a great season, but just didn’t have it today.” Can you hear the vitriol (Word of The Day) in my voice?)

Shaun Marcum - Things went well with Dr. James Andrews. No surgery needed. Maybe I’m a pessimist but to me, visiting Dr. James Andrews is reason enough to be worried.

Jason Isringhausen - Blown save. I don’t think Ryan Franklin should be dropped just yet.

Gary Sheffield - Went 4-for-5. I don’t have any doubt that he wants to play and prove people wrong. Sheff is driven by proving people wrong. Much like Bonds was. However, I think nagging injuries catch up to Sheff before he can show everyone a thing or two. Is he worth a flier? Sure. Just don’t drop anyone you’ll regret. (Hey, that sounds like something I would say in the comments. So that’s me quoting future me!)

Luke Hochevar - Aka the guy whose last name you can’t pronounce went 8 innings and gave up 2 ER. He’s tamed his control problem in his last couple of starts, but I’m not picking him up in any league.

Shawn Chacon - I read the recap of how he attacked Ed Wade, the Astros GM. I also read about their conversation before it all went down. What I didn’t read was what Chacon did immediately after the altercation. Here’s what I think went down post-altercation. Chacon into his cellphone, “Hey, Milton Bradley, it’s Chacon. Did you hear–” “I’m watching Passions.” “The soap opera?” “What do you want, Chacon?” “Well, I just had an altercation and I was looking for some spiritual guidance. It seems–” “Did I mention I was watching Passions?” “Should I let you go?” At that point, Milton Bradley hung up on Shawn Chacon. If anyone knows where Chacon is now, let him know there are people that care about him and to keep hope alive.

Aaron Harang - I’m done making excuses for him. Okay, one excuse — he gave up an infield single then a home run to Joe Inglett(!) that barely got over the wall and hit the foul pole. What’s even more annoying (to me at least), Harang just doesn’t seem like he cares, but maybe that’s the creepy, Lurch-like deep sunken eyes. I hate you, Harang!

Eric Stults - I like Dodgers pitchers as much as the next guy, but I’m not picking up this schmohawk.

Jorge Campillo - Picked him up for this spot start, then I forgot to put him in (a drawback to having lots of teams). Anyway, I’m not necessarily dropping him just yet (though I’m not sure I’ll be starting him next time out against thePhils).

Russell Branyan - Mentioned this in the forums yesterday. Branyan looks like he’s turned the corner back onto K St.

Felix Hernandez - F-Her confirms what I thought all along. He’s not going to make his next start.

John Maine - Finally, someone makes the M’s look like the M’s.

Cristian Guzman - The Nats gave him a contract extension. After the announcement, Guzman said this, “Suckas!”

Carl Crawford - Carlin dead, Jared dead, Carl Crawford alive.  With two home runs yesterday, Crawford is hitting close to .500 in the last 7 games with three home runs. Why is he suddenly hitting? Because I just traded him away in one league. God hates me because I question him with things like, “Why are there more pigeons than pandas?”

Hank Blalock - Hurt his hand and doesn’t know when he’ll be able to return. Really sad stuff. I remember the good ‘ol days when he’d be able to return from a DL stint, play for a week or two then go back on the DL. Now it seems like he’s just going from DL stint to DL stint. *pours out some forty*