Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some rejected titles, Will Bill Still Thrill on the Hill?, Illy Billy, Wagner’s Closed, You Can’t Spell Duaner Sanchez Without Nude Ranch and my personal favorite, Billy Wagner, Act Your Age. Billy Wagner, the Mets closer and guy with the first name Billy, reports tightness in his shoulder. He was scheduled to have an MRI, but Billy’s scared of whatever MRI stands for. (Imaging something, but I’m doing this late on a Monday night, so you’re gonna have to bear with me. Or bare with me on a Nude Ranch. Rawrr!) Duaner Sanchez will probably fill-in for Wagner if he misses time. Heilman would be second in command. After that, coin flip! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada – To the DL. Might be out for the year. Keep a close eye on this. (Oops, I meant to write, “Keep a closed eye on this.”)

Clayton Kershaw – He’s back and going against the Rockies on Tuesday. If you’re thinking about grabbing him, here’s the yay or nay list. I’d prefer Campillo, Weeks, Kobayashi, Kuroda, Wolf (at home) and Hermida over Kershaw. I want Kershaw over Olsen, Eveland, Edwin Jackson, any A’s or Mariners hitter except Ichiro, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jobacum. Finally, I possibly want Kershaw over Guthrie depending on how Guthrie looks in his next start. He was not good in last year’s 2nd half and his leash is short, as they say in the zoology.

Luis Ayala – I’ve pretty much ignored the Fuentes trade rumors because I don’t think the Rockies are out of the division race and I don’t think they’re moving Fuentes. On the other hand, Rauch should be traded. I’ve picked up Ayala in a few leagues as I await the news.

Jose Valverde – 6 ER in 1/3 of an inning. Brandon Lyon, “Man, he sucks!”

Brett Myers – Soda Popinski is back. I’d take Kershaw over him.

Rickie Weeks – HR yesterday. He looks like a 25-year-old Ray Durham.

Randy Wolf – I kinda wanted to make this the lead for today’s post, but I couldn’t justify it. So the Astros are in discussions to acquire Randy Wolf, the pride of Canoga Park, CA. Seriously, you can’t make this shizz up. Randy Wolf, of a 6.63 road ERA is who the Astros want to acquire. Randy Wolf, of an almost 5.00 ERA in Minute Maid Park over the last three years. Randy Wolf, the guy who fantasy baseball owners know to sit in road games is who the Astros are going after. The Astros, who are 12 games back. Why are the Astros even going after someone? Why Randy Wolf?! I have to move on before this gives me a logic tumor.

Scott Kazmir – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks. I hope he keeps it up; I just don’t think he will.

Rich Harden – 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 10 Ks. Kazmir vs. Harden in The Series…. of Injuries.

Kip Wells – In our Razzball league, where I’m currently in last 1st (I think. There’s an at-bat minimum that Yahoo doesn’t factor in, so the standings aren’t always accurate.), I forgot to move Kip Wells into my lineup.  Sonavabench! He only pitched a third of an inning and he gave up 7 ER. 189.00 ERA, 24.00 WHIP. This is the equivalent of having a 24 inning perfect game on your bench. Or a Marcus Thames 17 home run game on your bench. I so wanna bang my head into a moving car.

Miguel Cabrera – 5-for-6. Now at .290, he will end the season at .320. You do the math!

Matt Joyce – When I saw the Tigers scored 19, I knew the man with the smarty-pants sounding name had to get at least 3 RBIs. He got 5 and went 4-for-6. Matt Joyce was just named the Player of the Week and is on the business end side of the platoon when Mags pushes him.

Jon Lester – Held the Mariners scoreless through 7 1/3 innings as Lester drove them McNulty.

Troy Tulowitzki – 4-for-4. Now he just needs to go 146 for his next 146 and he’ll salvage his season.

Robinson Cano – Why don’t the Yankees send him to Winter Ball so he thinks April is the middle of the season?

I was drunk for the first three months of the fantasy baseball season. That’s right, blitzed. Three coladas to the wind. Someone would ask me for fantasy baseball advice and I’d type out my answers with a celery stalk that was drenched in booze. Chris Davis or Chase Headley? I’d play eeny-meeny-miney-moe with my cocktail umbrellas. Start Kuroda? I’d ask whatever nogoodnik was on the stool next to me at the local watering hole. But I had, as drunks say, a moment of clarity. So I decided to take the All-Star Break as an opportunity to look back at some ill-advised fantasy baseball advice that I gave and make amends. As Josh Hamilton would say, “It’s Step 8. Make a list of all persons we have harmed, and make amends to them all. Apologize especially to Milton Bradley, or he’ll stab you with a spork.” Anyway, here goes some apologies for first half fantasy baseball advice that makes me lucky the American Mustache Institute doesn’t revoke my license to have a mustache:

Travis Hafner – I placed him 4th overall for all first basemen. Not only did Hafner not deliver what I had hoped, he didn’t deliver anything, except a message that read, “I don’t deserve my uber-cool nickname, Pronk, and my bones have atrophied 500% in the last two years.” Unless Hafner gets in that pool from the movie, “Cocoon,” we’re done with each other forever. Skinny dip with Wilford Brimley or it’s goodbye. Your call, Pronk.

Rich Hill – I put everyone in this schmohawk, including Carl in the first comment here. I think Carl promised to hate me forever if the trade backfired. Luckily, all he lost was Krispie Young. I hate you, Rich Hill, for coming between me and Carl!

Jeff Francoeur – Even in leagues that don’t count OBP, I hate guys that don’t take a walk, but Frenchy had a certain je ne sais quoi. Maybe his free swinging ways made him like Vlad, but white — as most Vlads are.  Well, I was wrong here (even choosing him over Josh Hamilton in that ‘pert league), here and here. I swung and missed with Franceour about as many times as he did. Next time I tout Frenchy, my article title may as well be, “Grey’s Gay for Francoeur.”

Robinson Cano – There were times on this site when I should’ve changed my Don Mattingly look-a-like picture and put Cano up there with a big heart over it. I was blinded by Cano’s youth and flat, line drive stroke that is Carew-like. (If his swing was anymore like Carew’s, he’d have to circumcise the knobs on his bat.) Or maybe I was attracted to Cano’s absurdly low BABIP that made me think again and again he had to be a Buy Low…. Actually, I’m still buying. Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Edwin Encarnacion – When I placed him 15th out of all third basemen, I said this, “Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarnacion.” I was crazy. See, your first instinct is always right. Go ask Malcolm Gladwell.

Alex Gordon – I loved Gordon coming into the year. Was I wrong? That’s what this post is about. Why are you asking rhetorical questions that do nothing but hurt me? When you cut me, do I not bleed?

Alexis Rios – This is Rios’s fault as much as it’s mine. Why does your swing have to be so sweet?

Aaron Harang – I called Harang up the other day on my cellular phone. “Grey here.” “Oh, I was just calling in an order for some Hot & Sour Soup and potstickers and didn’t hear the phone ring.” “Yeah, that’s cool. Listen–” “Who did you say you were again?” “Never mind that.  Just let me say something.” “Um… Who?” “Listen, this isn’t easy. I’m sorry for putting so much pressure on you. I thought you were a solid starter that was wholly underrated. I see now you weren’t underappreciated, just under-skilled–” “This is an apology?” “Yeah, give me a second. So when I told everyone they should not only draft you, but trade for you. Why did you then shit my house? Cause I think the–” “This doesn’t sound like an apology.” “I’m getting to it!” “Okay, but I think I have another call.” “Oh, okay, I just figured you owed me some kind of apology–” “Me apologize to you?” “Yeah, you completely ruined five of my fantasy teams!” “I thought you were the one who was supposed to apologize.” “Yeah, you’re right. I apologize for believiing in you, you fat, mother– Hello? Hello? Aaron?”

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano – On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ‘08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley – Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis – Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker – Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto – On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger – I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles – Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes – Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham – It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy – I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda – He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew – With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders – I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook – Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan – I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival – As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera – Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain – He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte – Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright – You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie – Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke – Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye – Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley – You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes – He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross – 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi – Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders – 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy – Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching – We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner – He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano – Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles – 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) – A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Chris Perez – Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.

Curtis Granderson – As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.

Corey Hart – Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!

Joey Devine – In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.

Matt Garza – 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!

Bobby Crosby – If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.

Adam Wainwright – I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.

Mike Cameron – I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.

Vladimir Guerrero – So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.

Jose Contreras – Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.

Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano – I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.

SELL

Ben Sheets – I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ‘04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.

Edinson Volquez – In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.

Adrian Gonzalez – Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”

Jon Garland – Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.

Jon Lester/Doug Davis – As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”

Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.

Joe Saunders – Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play – it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!

Billy Butler – I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?