Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the 3rd post in a series on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot.  My first post on Jeff Bagwell covered the criteria I am using for analyzing HOF players.  The second post covered Bert Blyleven.

The next players I’d have on our ballot are three middle infielders:  Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar.

Alan Trammell

WAR Totals:  106.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 66.9 career WAR + 1 MVP seasons (+10) and 6 All-Star seasons (+30)

Stats:  20 seasons, 3,215 Times on Base (2,314 hits, 850 BB), 1,231 Runs, 185 HR, 1,003 RBI, 236 SB, .285 AVG / .352 OBP / .415 SLG / 110 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  87 R /13 HR/71 RBI/17 SB

Barry Larkin

WAR Totals:  103.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 68.9 career WAR + 7 All-Star seasons (+35)

Stats:  19 seasons, 3,279 Times on Base (2,340 hits, 939 BB), 1,329 Runs, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, .295 AVG / .371 OBP / .444 SLG / 116 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  99 R / 15 HR / 71 RBI / 28 SB

Roberto Alomar

WAR Totals:  88.5 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 63.5 career WAR + 5 All-Star seasons (+25)

Stats:  17 seasons, 3,756 Times on Base (2,724 hits, 1,032 BB), 1,508 Runs, 210 HR, 1134 RBI, 474 SB, .300 AVG / .371 OBP / .443 SLG / 116 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  103 R / 14 HR / 77 RBI / 32 SB

Before this latest analysis, I had these three in reverse order (see my middle infielder analysis from last year).  This also matched the HOF voters who had Alomar on 73.7% of the ballots, Larkin on 51.6%, and Trammell on 22.4%.

Trammell and Barry Larkin are pretty much a coin flip based on this analysis.  They are #2 and #3 based on my calculations for post-WWII shortstops who were retired as of 2005 – both trailing Cal Ripken’s 139.9 (If you count Robin Yount and Ernie Banks as shortstops, though they played 50% of their time at CF and 1B respectively, they would be #4 and #5).  Trammell edges Larkin on my calculations because his best season (1987) was an 8.4 MVP-level season while Larkin’s best was 7.4 (1996 when he went 30-30, a better year than in 1995 when he won the MVP).

Overall, Larkin was better offensively and baserunning while Trammell bested Larkin in defensive value.

I think the reason why Trammell has been unappreciated so far by HOF voters is the middle infielder bias I referred to in my post last year.  MI’s rarely play long enough to get 3,000 hits (Ripken is currently the only player with 70% of their starts at SS to reach the mark.  Jeter will be there likely by the 2011 All-Star break) nor are they built to reach milestones like 400 HRs (only Ripken).  The one exception for a modern SS is Ozzie Smith who got in mainly for his glove.

Here is an interesting comparison of Runs above Replacement for Alan Trammell vs. Barry Larkin vs. Ozzie Smith.

Name	Sum	Rbat (Batting)	Rbaser (Running)	Rfield (Fielding)
Trammell	+221	+124	+21	+76
Larkin	+301	+189	+85	+27
Smith	+171	-150	+82	+239

While Ozzie was rightfully voted into the HOF fueled by his amazing glove, note how he gave back over 60% of those runs with his below average hitting.  While Trammell and Larkin were not in Ozzie’s class for fielding, their solid defense and much better bats more than made up for it.

As for Roberto Alomar, I was very surprised to see that he had less All-Star worthy seasons of 5.0+ WAR (5) than Trammell or Larkin (both with 7).  In reviewing the data, I found a couple of reasons for this (mis)perception:

1) Roberto Alomar’s sterling defensive reputation is not backed up by advanced defensive statistics.  Baseball-Reference’s Rfield has him at -32 runs for his career – basically saying he was a BELOW AVERAGE fielder.  Here is a comparison of the top 2Bs based on number of Gold Gloves.

Name	# of Gold Gloves	Rfield
Roberto Alomar	10	-32
Ryne Sandberg	9	+60
Bill Mazeroski	8	+147
Frank White	8	+121
Joe Morgan	5	-47
Bobby Richardson	5	+15
Craig  Biggio	4	-71
Bret Boone	4	-39
Bobby Grich	4	+83
Orlando Hudson	4	+23

Now it’s misleading in that several of these players (Morgan and Biggio) had struggles early and late in their careers but had solid Rfield stats during their Gold Glove years.  I think the advanced statistics correlate fairly well with the less exact Gold Glove awards so I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to the statistics that Alomar’s defense was overrated compared to the perception at the time (note: another popular metric, UZR, didn’t consider Alomar’s defense great either).

2) While I’ve found that middle infielders tend to be penalized in MVP-voting because of a bias towards HR/RBI that favor 1B/OF, it seems that Alomar’s top-10 MVP votes exceed his true value.

Name	MVP Top 10s	WAR Top 10s (excluding Pitchers)
Alomar	5 – 1991 (6th),1992 (6th),1993 (6th), 1999 (3rd), 2000 (4th)	4 – 1992 (4th), 1993 (9th), 1999 (3rd), 2000 (4th)
Larkin	2 – 1990 (7th), 1995 (1st)	6 – 1998 (5th), 1990 (9th), 1991 (4th), 1992 (8th), 1995 (5th), 1996 (6th)
Trammell	3 – 1984 (9th), 1987 (2nd), 1988 (7th)	6 – 1983 (7th), 1984 (3rd), 1986 (5th), 1987 (2nd), 1988 (8th), 1990 (3rd)

My best guess for this is that Alomar happened to play on better teams than the other two players.  Trammell’s Tigers only exceeded 90 games twice (1984, 1987) and Larkin’s Reds had three 90+ win seasons (1990, 1992, 1999).  Alomar’s teams had seven 90+ win seasons (Toronto – 1991-1993, Baltimore – 1997, Cleveland – 1999-2001).  Of the 10 MVP nominations, only 2 (Larkin 1995, Trammell 1988) were to players on teams with less than 90 wins*.  It also helped that Alomar was more durable than Trammell and Larkin (13 seasons of 140+ games vs. 7 for Larkin and 8 for Trammell) which helps build up counting stats.

* Note:  Derek Jeter – who has played on 90+ win teams for all but two seasons of 87 and 89 wins – has 7 top-10 MVP finishes and 6 top-10 WAR seasons (excluding pitchers).  Cal Ripken – who played on only three 90+ win teams – had 3 top-10 MVP finishes and 7 top-10 WAR seasons (excluding pitchers).

3) The boom in shortstops over the last 30 years hurts the perception of Trammell and Larkin vs. Alomar.

In the past 30 years, we have seen the best post-WWII SS (Cal Ripken), the best fielding SS ever (Ozzie Smith), the best peak SS (Alex Rodriguez top years edge Ernie Banks), the first two shortstops to reach 3,000 hits (Ripken, Jeter soon enough), and that doesn’t include great players like 2-time MVP Robin Yount (one at SS), one-time MVP Miguel Tejada or Nomar Garciaparra (6 seasons of 5.9+ WAR).

There have been good 2Bs in the past 30 years (Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker) but they do not cast nearly the same shadow.

This boom overshadows the fact that – everything equal – shortstops are more valuable than second basemen.  According to Tom Tango’s research, the estimated difference in value is 5 runs per 600 plate appearances.  A team win is estimated to be 10 runs and, thus, over a 9000 PA career (roughly 15 full seasons), a SS is worth 75 more runs or 7.5 wins.

Looking at their career rate statistics, the three players are very close to even.  Trammel’s offense is slightly below the other two though some of that is corrected for era in OPS+.  But look at Larkin vs. Alomar.  The rates are almost exactly equal!  Alomar did have 1,343 more plate appearances which would eat into much if not all of Larkin’s positional advantage in WAR (figure Alomar would need two seasons at 3.75 WAR to negate the advantage).  But I do not think the boost to his career counting stats (2,724 hits, 210 HRs, 474 SBs) vs. Larkin (2,348 hits, 198 HRs, 379 SBs) is the reason for their perceived difference (as seen in 2010 HOF voting).

Trammell – 285 AVG / .352 OBP / .415 SLG / 110 OPS+

Larkin – .295 AVG / .371 OBP / .444 SLG / 116 OPS+

Alomar – .300 AVG / .371 OBP / .443 SLG / 116 OPS+

Now even with crediting Alomar as below-average on defense, he still ends up 5th (based on my formula) amongst post-WWII second baseman who retired by 2005 behind Joe Morgan (103.5), Bobby Grich (102.6), Ryne Sandberg (97), and Lou Whitaker (89.7).   Three post-WWII HOF second basemen are below him:  Nellie Fox (64.4),  Red Schoendienst (55.4), and Bill Mazerowski (26.9).

So I see all three players as HOF-worthy but that Alomar is a little below Larkin and Trammell in total value.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts:

Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar walked into a bar where they ran into a magical, beautiful nymph.  She looked at the three retired baseball players and said, “I’ve gone out with baseball players and I’ve been hurt by their pasts.  Before I can consider any of you, I must know what teams you played for, your major role, and who the owners were.

Trammell:  I was the heart of the Tigers when they were owned by Tom Monaghan (founder of Domino’s) and Mike Ilitch (founder of Little Caesar’s).

Nymph:  Ah, so I might catch a case of heartburn from you.

Larkin:  I was a great hitter for the Reds when they were owned by Marge Schott.

Nymph:  Ah, so I might catch a case of bat shit crazy from you.

Alomar:  I was a great player on 4 teams (San Diego, Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland) and horrible on one (NY Mets).  I have been with too many owners to name.

Nymph:  Hmm.  Well, I don’t know what I’d catch from you but I sure as hell don’t want to find out.

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats. These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format. See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

For a man and a woman to produce a great baseball player, it takes an ovum with a very good eye to spot a 5-tool sperm out of the pack. While there is more room for error if the father is a former player like Bobby Bonds or Ken Griffey Sr., it’s extremely rare that the same pitcher/catcher combination produces more than one HOF caliber player. (Note: Ms. Koufax’s eagle-eyed ova managed to find the one athletic specimen of the 180 million nebbish sperm provided by her husband. Jonas Salk purported that if he had access to Ms. Koufax’s womb, he could have cured blindness. Then again, Jonas would say anything to get into a girl’s womb…)

There are some exceptions to this rule:

1) Paul “Big Poison” and Lloyd “Little Poison” Waner amassed 5,611 hits for the pre-WWII Pirates (back when they were good).

2) The Alou triumvirate of Felipe, Matty, and Jesus amassed more than 5,000 hits. Ms. Alou was so fertile that her vagina was used for agricultural purposes during fallow reproduction periods.

3) The DiMaggio trio of Joe, Dom, and Vince may have been the best set of brothers but their combined stats seem less impressive because of time lost in service (Joe and Dom both served 3 years during WWII) and that the DiMaggio’s were 3 of about 40 DiMaggio children (as was de riguer among Italians of the era).

The more common scenario among baseball playing progeny is at most one heavyweight (say, Sly Stallone) and one lightweight (say, Frank Stallone). Could the lightweight brothers ever have been contenders (aka contendas) or did they just ride their brother’s coattails? Tough to say. But here are some examples:

1) Tommie Aaron. Brother Hank hit 755 HRs. Tommie hit 13. He got hate letters…from African-Americans.

2) Ozzie Canseco. Jose and his twin combined for 462 HRs and stole 200 SBs in the majors. Ozzie was responsible for 0 HRs and 0 SBs as he managed just 13 hits (6 doubles!) and 4 RBIs in his 65 career ABs. Thus, Ozzie had about the same impact on their brotherly combined statistics as, say, Lizzie McGwire would if you combined her stats with those of Mark McGwire.

3) Steve Larkin. Brother Barry played 19 seasons in Cincinnati and starred in 12 All-Star games. Steve played one game for the Reds in 1998 going 1 for 3. I wonder if Steve rubs it in that he has the higher career batting average

4) Chris Gwynn. Brother Tony hit 3,141 hits and won 8 batting titles. Chris managed 263 hits in 10 years. Based on the below photo, it’s no coincidence they both ended up on the team owned by the founder of McDonald’s.

That takes us to Billy Ripken. Billy shot through the minor leagues on a wave of mediocrity and nepotism – making it to the majors in 1987 at the young age of 22 (then again, you never know the true age of Oriole infielders). He soon beat out Alan Wiggins for the Oriole 2B spot as Wiggins, much like Robert Downey Jr., couldn’t choose between speed (66 and 70 SB in 1983/84) and cocaine.

Ripken’s surprising .308/.363/.372 over 234 ABs in 1987 didn’t dupe Oriole fans and brass into thinking that they had another Cal Ripken, but it did have them thinking they had their starting second baseman for 1988 and a #2 hitter to hit in front of his brother and Eddie Murray.

In retrospect, they could not have chosen a better 2nd baseman for their Razztastic 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The season started ominously with a 6 game losing streak. It wasn’t all Billy’s fault – he hit 6-for-24, a respectable .250 clip. But Cal and Eddie were riding the US highways (.091 and .130 respectively) and the axe fell on Cal Ripken Sr. The firing after 6 days shattered Yogi Berra’s unofficial ‘quickest firing’ record of 16 days by the Yanks in 1985 and it broke Cal Sr’s streak of 168 straight games managed. One wonders how Cal Sr. reacted to it given he was ‘wiry, blunt, quick-tempered and given to salty language’.

Baltimore legend and HOFer Frank Robinson came in and got the team into the W column….on April 29th in their 22nd game of the season. Yes, much like a senior undergrad at Oral Roberts University, the team went 0 for their first 21.

Hitting primarily out of the #2 slot (right in front of his brother), Billy had a tough April and May, finishing the two months with a .173 AVG in 162 ABs. Students at nearby Johns Hopkins Medical School ironically mused, “How could Billy’s stats be so anemic given his brother is known as the ‘Iron Man’?” and debated whether to nickname him Anemia Man or Irony Man.

On June 14th, Billy Ripken hit his first HR of the year off of the Tigers’ Doyle Alexander – the sole hitting highlight of a first half that, in 287 ABs, amassed a .199 AVG. Given the Orioles finished the first half at 28-59, it’s not as if he was the only dead weight in the lineup.

During the All-Star Break, Frank Robinson had some thinking to do. Do I send Ripken back down to AAA and potentially anger Cal Jr.? Can I really spoil a Razzterful season in the spirit of meritocracy and honoring the game when our season is already in the shitter? Frank compromised – he kept Ripken in the lineup every day but stashed him in the 9th slot to minimize the impact. To make sure Ripken didn’t lose momentum during the All-Star break, Frank scheduled some extra hitting sessions with former Baltimore SS Mark Belanger.

The 2nd half basically played out like the 1st half – 1 HR and a few more hits to put him over the Mendoza line.

The final line:

512 AB / 52 R / 2 HR / 34 RBI/ 8 SB / .207 AVG / .260 OBP / .258 SLG

Among AL batters with 300+ ABs, Billy Ripken finished last in AVG, OBP, and SLG. His 2 HR did place him ahead of 13 AL hitters including a power-deprived Ozzie Guillen (0 HR in 566 AB), a coke-deprived Willie Wilson (1), and a steroid-deprived Brady Anderson (1 in 325 AB).

That said, Billy felt positive going into the 1989 season. Yes, my 1988 was Razztastic but I’m a Ripken, damnit! I’m only going to get better. It really can’t get any worse than being the worst hitter in the league on the worst team in the league and my father being axed in the first 6 days of the season, could it?

Billy’s optimism, however, stood no chance against the naked ambition of Fleer Corporation which was, at the time, in a fight with Donruss for #2 in the baseball card market. In what is on record as an honest mistake, Billy Ripken’s 1989 baseball card came out with the nickname ‘Fuck Face’ on the knob of his bat. Traumatized, Billy missed the first 15 games of 1989 on the DL with a bruised ego and ended the season with only slightly better results (.239 AVG w/ no power).

During 1990, a reinvigorated Billy blocked out his 1988-1989 mistakes like Fleer blocked out the ‘Fuck Face’ in subsequent printings of the card. He had his best season as a pro when, in 406 AB, he led the Orioles in hitting at .291 – stomping his .250 hitting brother. Granted, Cal out-HRed him 21 to 3 but still…

While Billy’s glove (and surname?) kept him in the league another 8 years, a mix of injuries and responsible coaching kept him from ever topping 330 ABs again. He recently represented Ripken Baseball on a US government-sponsored envoy to China to help build support for baseball. You know Lenn Sakata HAD to be pissed that he wasn’t invited.

Let Cooperstown have Cal. Razzball will take Fuck Face any day of the week (twice on Sundays!)