Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ryan Madson has to have Tommy John surgery.  Luckily, he signed with a Dusty Baker-managed team as the trainers have a lot of experience diagnosing busted arms.  Sean Marshall will likely take over the closing gig, spurring indie comedy fans in Cincy to bring Sean Of The Red signs to games.  Best case scenario:  Marshall goes the whole season with the job, continues to rack up a 9+ K-rate and 40+ saves.  Most realistic scenario:  Dusty brings Marshall into the ninth inning of a tie game and, as the two teams battle scoreless inning after scoreless inning, Marshall stays in the game for another 16 innings and throws 450 pitches.  125 of those pitches he kicks over the plate Hacky Sack-style because his arm is too tired.  Then Masset and Aroldis end up getting 5-7 saves each and Marshall ends the year with 30+ saves and an ERA around 3.50.  Most likely scenario involving dolphins:   Marshall falls asleep on a raft and wakes in Barbados.  With the phone lines down due to a tropical storm, he befriends the local innkeeper, Teronimo, who teaches him how to surf.  But Teronimo has a hidden secret — Marshall is really his nephew that his brother asked him to watch over.  When Teronimo reveals his secret, there’s a giant rift between Marshall and Teronimo that is only assuaged by the sight of dolphins.  No matter the scenario, grab Sean Marshall immediately.  You might’ve just lucked into a top tier closer for free.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Drew Storen – Could start the year on the DL.  Davey Johnson made that announcement minutes after he said Storen had no structural issues with his elbow, which came a day after he said Storen needed an MRI, which was minutes after Storen said he couldn’t throw, which can mere moments after he was diagnosed with strep throat.  Following?  Yeah, neither do I.  I’m beginning to think some ball clubs need a new HMO.  Johnson said Clippard would not see saves, but the team would turn to Henry Rodriguez or Brad Lidge.  I’d pick them up in reverse order for saves.  When in doubt, go with the guy with experience.  And no one has experience blowing leads quite like Lidge.  “Nats Fall Off the Lidge” is already written on a Post-It on some copy editor’s desk just waiting to go to press.  In one league where our innings max is small and our needs for Ks is tall — she says she likes the ocean — we went with Rodriguez.  He averages 98 MPH with his fastball and has a 9+ K-rate.  If he can keep his walks in check, he could be this year’s huge middle reliever breakout.

Bobby Jenks – Arrested for a DUI.  He’s signed a contract with Hanna Barbera for the rights to his name as animated onomatopoeia when a cartoon character crashes a car.  Barney, “Fred, Watch out!”  JENKS!

Joba Chamberlain – Dislocated his ankle reportedly playing on a trampoline.  It was an inevitable outcome of his failed appeasement policy when he ceded playing in the Bouncyland region of Chuck E. Cheesoslovakia.

Joakim Soria – Will undergo Tommy John surgery.  Feel free to drop him, we won’t see him until thirteen after twenty.

Chris Carpenter – Updating the previous 17 posts I’ve done on Carpenter, he has nerve issues in his shoulder.  Not good news, as if you needed me to tell you.  I wouldn’t have drafted Carpenter before this news.  Guess how I feel about him about him now.  73?  That’s your guess?  That’s terrible.  Get Lance Lynn in NL-Only and deeper mixed leagues, I’m guessing Carpenter won’t be back for a while.  When he dealt with this similar problem in 2008, he threw 15 innings that year.  No, I didn’t forget a zero.  That’s fifteen.  We may even see Shelby Miller by June, if Lynn can’t cut it, though I think Lynn can.  Here’s what I said earlier this preseason, “Out of the bullpen last year, Lynn’s fastball regularly touched the high-90?s as he put up a 2.22 ERA and 32 Ks in 24 1/3 IP.  As a starter, he was much less exciting (5.23 ERA, 8 Ks), but like a man who needs prunes that was in limited duty (10 1/3 IP).  From his minor league track record, we see a guy who has a 7+ K-rate and moderate control.  There’s a chance for some sweet, sweet upside here.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Trevor Bauer – Was optioned down to Double-A and Uncle Barry Enright was optioned to Triple-A.  Rusty Ryal and Chris Jakubauskas were assigned to their minor league camp.  You think Chris Jakubauskas ever misspells his own name?

Jamie Moyer – The 49-year-old will make the Rockies rotation.  For now, he’ll put on hold his quest to make the World Bingo Tour.

Mark Trumbo – On Saturday, the Sciosciapath said, “We feel (Trumbo) has the potential to be a terrific third baseman.”  Then he started laughing uncontrollably.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper tore his meniscus announcing his retirement.

Matt Thornton – White Sox announced there’s a five man race for the closer role –  Santiago, Ohman, Thornton, Reed and Crain.  Kinda sounds like the race to be the Republican presidential candidate.  I think right now the chances are Thornton at 80%, Crain at 10% and the field is at 10%.

Chase Utley – Said he’ll miss Opening Day but expects to play this year.  Have things gotten so bad that in March Utley is saying he’s going to play this year?  He has to clarify at some point in the next six months he’s going to be ready?  Yesterday, I said I wouldn’t draft him until around pick 150.  I may have been optimistic there.  Probably would wait another 50 picks and hope we saw him for about 80 games this year.

Anthony Rizzo – Optioned to the minors.  Will probably see him back in June.  Until then, Rizzo will be tearing up Triple-A and making prank calls, jerky.

Logan Morrison – May not be ready for Opening Day.  He said, “I think the knee is going to tell me.  The knee is going to tell everyone. I can’t tell it what to do.”  Reading this reminded me of when the ref would lift Hulk Hogan’s arm twice, then Hogan waved a finger up the final time like his finger had a mind of its own.  Let’s pray Morrison’s knee waves to the crowd the third time it’s raised.  I’m having serious concerns though, and I wouldn’t draft him at this point unless he fell at least four rounds.  It’s way too early in the year for this much concern about a surgically-repaired knee.

Bud Norris – Left Friday’s game with tightness in his triceps.  He was on Rudy’s risky pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball list.  The only player on the Astros with more sliders in their diet is Carlos Lee.

Travis Snider – Optioned to the minors, and Eric Thames will play left field.  I gave Thames some nice projections over at the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, saying something like he has power upside.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!

Doug Fister – Left Friday’s game with a sore middle finger.  Fister has a sore middle finger?  Are you thinking what I’m thinking?  Yup, probably tendinitis.

Ted Lilly – Has neck stiffness.  Maybe he got a Viagra stuck in his throat.  Will probably miss at least one start, wouldn’t be surprised if he missed two or three starts.

Mike Morse – Might make it back for Opening Day after all, even after his platelet rich plasma injection, which sounds like a procedure a real housewife of Beverly Hills would get.

Matt Bush – Arrested for DUI after hitting a 72-year-old motorcyclist.  The motorcyclist’s 95-year-old mother responded, “I told you motorcycles are dangerous.”

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Astros County.

1) How many at-bats do you see Jason Bourgeois getting?  How many steals?

That’s an excellent question. The outfield situation for the Astros is very fluid – any three of seven guys could earn a starting job out of Spring Training: Jordan Schafer, J.D. Martinez, Brian Bogusevic, Jason Bourgeois, Fernando Martinez, J.B. Shuck. And that doesn’t include the possibility of Brett Wallace raking in March and pushing Carlos Lee back to left field. Bourgeois got 43 PAs in September, when it was pretty clear the Astros were trying out Schafer and J.D. Martinez – so I’d say that he gets 200-300 PAs over the season, unless something drastic happens in Spring Training. Since he could be used as a pinch-runner, I’d pencil him in for 20-30 steals, as well.

2) Offensively, it’s hard to get excited about the Astros.  Maybe Schafer finally comes around.  Maybe Carlos Lee gets mono from Livan Hernandez and misses 162 games.  Yet, without trying too hard, I’m actually excited about Jose Altuve. Think he has an outside chance at a 10/20 season.  Am I delusional or is that realistic?

I’m excited about Jose Altuve, as well – it’ll be interesting to see what adjustments he can make after getting a half-season with the major-league club, but I don’t think a 10/20 season is unrealistic at all. In 53 games, he had seven homers, and he hit .327/.386/.481 in the minors, so he has – at least over the last two seasons – a track record of extra-base hits.

3) J.D. Martinez sounds like he should be on a cop drama, but at least he’s not J.B. Shuck, who sounds like he invented some piece of farm equipment.  Is there something I’m missing on Martinez?  Can he be productive?  Hit over 20 homers and .300?

All J.D. Martinez does is hit. I personally have a man-crush on Martinez, so I’m biased, but this was a 20th-Round pick who won two minor-league batting titles, and had a .959 OPS in Double-A before getting called up to Houston. The knock on Martinez is his knees – he’s had some sort of arthritic condition in his knee (which may be perfect for a team who needs a DH in 2013), and is presumably why he dropped to the 20th Round. With Martinez, at every level to which he has advanced, he has needed a little bit of an adjustment period before he goes back to knocking the cover off the ball. And when he’s not raking, he catches drug mules and delivers snappy one-liners with his sunglasses in hand.

4) 1.32 WHIP and 190 Ks.  That’s what I have down for Bud Norris for 2012.  Any chance he beats those numbers?

That sounds about right. I’d be less surprised if he broke your 190K benchmark, because he’s spent all offseason talking about throwing 200+ IPs. If he can just replicate his 2011 K/9 rate, but hit the 200IP mark, he’ll have his 190 strikeouts. He brought his walk rate down quite a bit (from 4.5 to 3.4 BB/9) from 2010 to 2011, and if he can do even a little bit better, his WHIP should stay about the same. Norris also had a very consistent .299 BABIP, so the 1.32 WHIP looks solid.

5) What is the best way that Astros management show fans that they won’t become Drayton McLane / Ed Wade part II?
A)  Forbid everyone in the Astros organization from wearing hairpieces.
B) Pay laid-off NASA engineers to launch Carlos Lee into orbit – triggering little-known “We don’t have to pay you if you’re outside the Earth’s stratosphere” clause.
C) Require Astro catchers to hit.
D) Free Nolan Ryan brand steaks for everyone when Astro pitchers are pounded like meat by the other team

I’m very interested in the Astros actively taking steps to ensure that Carlos Lee cannot physically make it to the stadium, so I’m going with B.

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.