Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy baseball is a fickle beast.  It will lure you in with chocolates and fine smelling perfume.  Then leave you heartbroken, mad as hell and unable to watch regular baseball.  Twelve after 20 is becoming the year of the Aflac for closers.  It is just not safe to be a ninth inning pitcher.   It’s like someone is hunting them down one by one, and systematically destroying everyone’s hopes at accumulating points in saves.  Wait, is that a laser pointer on Huston Street?  Watching guys that I usually opine about in my holds posts finally getting some burn in the limelight.  It is a strong week for streaming low end two start pitchers.  Lots of decent matchup type guys and some  guys that are under the radar who should be rostered in most formats soon.  So enjoy the week to come and have a very wobbly and not very up-right Cinco De Mayo.  Here’s some two start starters for this week in fantasy baseball:  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/9

Anthony Bass @ Col – Moscoso

Ross Detwiler @ Pit – Bedard

Drew Smyly @ Sea – Vargas

5/10

Henderson Alvarez @ Min – Marquis

Derek Lowe @ Bos – Beckett

5/11

Kyle Drabek @ Min – Blackburn

James McDonald vs Hou – Norris

5/12

R.A. Dickey @ Mia – Nolasco

TWO START OPTIONS:

J.A. Happ (Mia vs Zambrano, @Pit vs Morton) After watching him pitch against the Mets, I said to myself, “Self, we should keep an eye on him for future starts.”  For a deeper league with fringe options, the stale fish and the sinking pirate ship seem tantalizing to me.

Bronson Arroyo (@Mil vs Marcum, Was vs Jackson) Because of rain you get him twice this week, ain’t that special?  Likes to use the method of one good/one bad start.   His last one was bad, so there is your heads up.

Josh Tomlin (CHW vs Humber, @Bos vs Doubront) ERA says 5, but the other numbers say something different.  And if numbers talk we have a bigger problem.  Like what else talks to you?  Lunch meat?

Duane Below (@Sea vs Millwood, @Oak vs Parker) I don’t wanna jinx him, but he is unscored upon this year. I bet someone a shiny new quarter that no longer exists by the fourth inning Monday.  Still all things considered, it is Seattle and that is Millwood, so it could be an easy W.

Joe Saunders (STL vs Lynn, SF vs Zito) I don’t know how he is doing it either, so don’t ask.  Luck is the best thing I can think of, LOB rate of 84% and a FIP in the high 2′s makes him look more realistic and not like the boogieman sleeping in my closet.

Marco Estrada (Cin vs Arroyo, CHC vs Volstad) I see his name and the CHiPs theme song jumps in my head. Now that we are on the same page enjoy the classic fade out to that song. Without the Ks, I’d wanna watch TJ Hooker instead.

A.J. Burnett ( Was vs Jackson, Hou vs Happ) A dozen of anything sounds delicious.  Oh… they were earned runs. Yikes.  Anything worth doing, A.J does it.

Barry Zito (@LAD vs Lilly, @Ari vs Saunders) His matchup looks like a retread meeting of guys over 30 who no longer throw hard. 7 walks last start as he was in a hurry to get to the Perfect Strangers reunion show. Big Cousin Larry fan.

Jarrod Parker (Tor vs Romero, Det vs Below) Good job, youngin’,, now go do it again and make yourself completely fantasy useful. While you’re at it, give me your sandwich….I said give me your sandwich!

Jonathan Sanchez (Bos vs Doubront, @CHW vs Danks) Filthy, dirty.  I don’t know what his nickname is anymore, but it should start with “in” and end with “consistent.”  Throws away too many pitches to go deep in a game and, for that reason, he is just poo.

Another Joyous week of 2 start streaming is in the books.  This week we have a bunch of lads that are up against it.  Most of the options this week are being truly put to the test with some of their toughest match-ups to date.  There are no gimmies this week and believe it or not Bronson Arroyo actually looks attractive this week, though only in a fantasy baseball way.  The other options that are being added or talked about this week all get the Yankees and someone else, which is never a good thing especially who the other teams are.  So stream carefully.  Enjoy the week to come and if you need anything you know where to find me. (Please be aware that pitchers and match-ups change)

ONE START STREAMERS:

5/2

Josh Tomlin @ CHW – Humber

AJ Burnett @STL – Lynn

5/3

Jake Westbrook vs Pit – Bedard

Jeff Niemann vs Sea – Millwood

Ross Detwiler vs Ari – Kennedy

5/4

Drew Smyly vs CHW – Peavy

Jason Vargas vs Min – Marquis

Anthony Bass vs Mia – Johnson

TWO START OPTIONS:

Juan Nicasio (LAD vs Harang, Atl vs Beachy) Proving to be a good Road Scholar, offers you some decent K potential as well.   No word on if his brother Jose Texas Instruments is an option this week.

Tommy Milone (@Bos  vs Buchholz, @TB vs Moore) Gets his first start east of the Mississippi. The old man, the mighty miss.   Unfortunately Bos and TB are playing the role of Dinkums and are going to pee all over his picnic basket.

Bronson Arroyo (CHC vs Volstad, @Pit vs Morton) Gotta love the match-ups here. Based on options this week it’s either bench some useful guys, stream some guys mid week if possible, or go with this guy. There is no D unfortunately.

Jason Hammel (@NYY vs Kuroda, @Bos vs Buchholz)  The pride of Treasure Valley Community College, where their motto is bring a shovel because we are in a valley and there is treasure. From the outside looking in if you own him great job, give yourself a pat on the back. Now don’t stop until until May 17th when he can actually be used again.

J.A. Happ (NYM vs Dickey, STL vs Wainwright) The epic battle of R.A. vs J.A. for the world title of being the best initialed pitcher in the galaxy. Adam Wainwright sits in the corner stewing, waiting to take J.A’s lunch money.

Luke Hochevar (Det vs Wilk, NYY vs Hughes) Focus on the names of the match-ups. Not the line-ups for a second…ok I don’t blame you for saying that. Or that, or that…. OK now your just being offensive.  ERA says 5 but he is pitching like a mid 2′s guy, and that my friends is why numbers lie.

Joe Weiland (Mil vs Wolf, Mia vs Nolasco) Home cooking for a Friar’s pitcher. Viva la Hodgepodgery.

Charlie Morton (@STL vs Wainwright, Cin vs Arroyo) If runs came in bunches like bananas then Pittsburgh is suffering from a potassium deficiency.  Look away, nothing to see here unless your in a 16 plus team league and are desperate to destroy your counting stats for the week.

Liam Hendriks (@LAA vs Wilson, @Sea vs Noesi) The good news is he plays the Mariners. The bad is he is a mediocre pitcher on mediocre team playing against an ace.  No sugar coating it around here I am diabetic.

Josh Collmenter (Mia vs Buerhle, @NYM vs Dickey) Hahahahahahahahahahaha.  This message brought to you and paid for by the promotion campaign of Trevor Bauer.

Now that Lance Berkman is on the DL, I’m going to read from your rankings.  Random Italicized Voice, I’m not here to talk about the past.  Is it true or is it not true that after Mr. Bungling Berkman in 2011, you said to avoid him this year?  I’m not here to talk about the– Oh, yeah, that is true.  See, I wasn’t setting you up to fail *cough* Vernon Wells is a sleeper *cough*  Thanks.  Now, instead of the past, let’s look into the future, specifically Matt Carpenter.  Right now, he’s filling in for Berkman and he’s hitting .321 with a donk and 11 ribbies — hey, give one to Eve! (The rapper.  She likes barbeque.)  In Triple-A, Carpenter hit 12 homers and .302, while his eye makes his OBP’ing gaudy by nature.  I’m not gonna say he’s the wickedest man alive because, well, interjection, he’s not.  In 500 ABs, he’d be lucky to hit 10 homers and contribute a handful of steals.  He can hit for a solid average and get on base.  In deep leagues, if you’re in a bind, man, pick up Carpenter and saw.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam Wainwright – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks; his ERA is now at 9.88.  Where’s everyone that was crazy excited for drafting him in the preseason?  Probably too soon to tell me in the comments what an idiot I am for ignoring him in my rankings, huh?  Also, too soon to say he’s going to win the Cy Young?  C’mon, it wasn’t too soon last month when you were saying it.  What’s the matter?  I hear the Wainwright for Cy Young in 2012 bandwagon is now giving two for one rides because of the empty seats.

Jon Jay – The Federalist sprained his shoulder when he tried to run through fence like he was a stunt double from Naked Gun.  His run-in with the fence has landed his arm in a sling.  It’s swing for the fences, Jon Jay.  Swing!  Sounds like he’s headed to the DL.

Jason Hammel – 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Last year, he had a 3.23 ERA in April and a 1.80 ERA in September.  In like a lion and out like a lion.  Way to turn an idiom on its head, which I guess would be !p!ow.  The interesting thing right now is his 18 Ks in 19 IP.  I wouldn’t go to him outside of certain matchups, but he’s moving onto radars.

Adam Jones – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs, 1 run and his 5th homer.  Make it rain!

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Usually a 2nd half starter that I can’t find the energy to pick up, but has a 2.91 ERA so far making him someone I still can’t build enthusiasm to own.

Brandon Phillips – 2-for-5, 1 run, 2 RBIs and his 1st homer.  Old school great sign:  He looks like he’s playing hurt so it’s good he was able to still swing the bat with authority.  New school great sign:  Yesterday, was the last day of Aries, which is a ram, and Phillips homered in St. Louis where the Rams play.  Booya!

Drew Stubbs – 3-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI and his first homer.  Maybe Stubbs was tending to his BBQ empire for the last two weeks, but it’s nice to have him back.

Todd Frazier – 0-for-4, as he got the start over Rolen (was just a day off, but Rolen’s a sneeze away from getting confused with Glass Chipper).  Frazier should be watched for now in NL-Only leagues, but if he can get playing time he could be a 15/15-type guy with a terrible average.

Ryan Zimmerman – 1-for-5, 3 RBIs and his first homer.  Hey, look what the cat, who is prone to drag in players who I’m beginning to think are overrated, dragged in.

Jeff Samardzija – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners (5 BBs), 3 Ks.  Last week I said of Samardzija, “With upside comes downside, i.e., sex is nice, but now she’s emotionally attached and she just called you “Poopsie” around your friends.”  And this start was the poopsie.

Emilio Bonifacio – 1-for-4 with his 8th and 9th steals.  I will now call him Emilio Estealthes.

Curtis Granderson – 5-for-5, 3 runs, 4 RBIs and 3 homers in the first four innings as he made me look like a schmohawk.  He was 5 for his last 23 before tonight and he hit the three homers against two weak righties, and wasn’t looking good against a tough lefty in the ninth (Perkins) when hit a dribbler for an infield single.  Huge night, for sure.  Can’t take anything away from that (even as I try to), but I’ll stand by my prediction that he disappoints this year.

Phil Hughes – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks and 4 unearned runs for the ticker shock.  More on Hughes in Doumit’s blurb.

Ryan Doumit – Hey, Hughes blurb readers, what’s up?  Chillin?  Doumit went 2-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBIs with his first homer.  He was pretty fooled by the pitch that he hit for a homer off Hughes.  I like Doumit to Ron Popeil, but he’s not that incredible.  I think this calls into question starting Hughes.  His home park is a launching pad and his stuff lets Doumit homer even when he’s out in front of it.

Brandon Allen – The Rays claimed Allen off of waivers to backup Carlos Pena, which makes no sense since they’re lefties.  Guess he could spell the other lefty Luke Scott occasionally at DH, or in Luke’s case gospel.

Evan Longoria – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 2nd homer.  I’m was gonna say it’s nice he’s coming alive, but his OBP is .431 and is hitting .327.  So, uh, just hit some more homers.  Thank you.

Desmond Jennings – 3-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and feasted on a slam & legs while us commoners hoped Denard Span would steal a base on a short schedule day.  Jennings, “Take your diseased Span away from my fantasy outfield, and next time I steal I want to take the buggy!”

Tommy Milone – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I saw nothing yesterday to make me think he can’t be a solid ratio helper.  Also, something about his name makes me wish he was from Bayonne and hung out with Joey Fatone.

Freddie Freeman - Hit two homers yesterday.  Eh, even a broken clock is right twice a day, which is still more times than Matthew Berry.

Mike Minor – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  I was saying this in the comments yesterday, but I feel no love for Minor this year.  I think if more people watched him, they’d understand how filthy he is.

Ryan Howard – Earlier this week, he went to see a specialist who told him there wasn’t enough progress in his healing to be cleared for baseball activities.  Now, today, he’s going to see the same specialist to see if he’s ready to go.  Only today he’s going in a Big Momma’s House Halloween costume.

Yu Darvish – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners (5 BBs), 5 Ks.  I didn’t watch this game (because the color of Yu’s hair makes me think something wrong with my TV tube and that gets annoying), but two hits in six innings is solid.  Obviously 5 walks is a bit of a concern, and 13 BBs in 17 2/3 innings is terrible.  Will someone wake me when this insanely hyped pitcher shows up?

Henderson Alvarez – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Just think, after this start he’ll have a solid FIP.

Matt Kemp – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, his 7th homer and Matt becomes the number one baby boy name in LA surpassing Edhardy.

Hunter Pence has a patella tendon strain and won’t play until this weekend.  Though, more likely, he’s not playing much more in the regular season.  Don’t you love H2H leagues?  What I don’t understand is how you can fantasy baseball, which is a shizzload more intensive than fantasy football, then leave the end of the season up to luck like it’s fantasy football.  I enjoy my one or two H2H leagues, but only because I have ten roto leagues to offset the silly luck factor of H2H.  You draft a great team, then your first 5 round picks are sitting out in the finals of H2H?  Don’t tell me injuries happen in real baseball playoffs, so this simulates that.  Real baseball is played over 162 games, not week to week on who has, say, the most Holds.  So I like H2H, but don’t make as if its playoff system makes sense.  As for Pence, find someone else to fill in p to the ronto.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Todd Helton – Unlikely to return this season with back issues.  It’s probably because when he sits on his bottom, his back can go to the top of its slide.  Helton Skelton!

Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-4 with his 24th steal and 3rd steal in his last 4 games.  Sure, Rockies, now play Young like he’s a rookie scrub who you’re just feeling out, unsure if he can play in the majors.  I hate the Rockies.  Today I’m officially starting the trade Eric Young Jr. to the Twins Campaign.  Gardy will let Young play and run and the M in MI in MN stands for mess.  All money donated to the site will not go to the Eric Young Jr. to the Twins Campaign, but we can pretend it will.

Phil Hughes – Scratched from Wednesday’s start with back issues.  I hope he returned the favor to Brian Cashman.  That’s how the world works, Phil!

Robinson Cano – Hit his 12th HR in the 2nd half to go along with an AVG near .320.  Imagine how much better those stats would be if it weren’t for the HR Derby Win jinx!

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  In case The Wandwagon isn’t mentioned next week, I just want to say with his 3.51 ERA and decent Ks (164 in 184 2/3 IP) he’s proven once again to be a serviceable fantasy starter without the flash.  You’re blue collar, Wandy, and for that I respect you.

Josh Beckett – 7 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Done in by two HRs by Mark Reynolds.  Maybe Godot had the scouting report on how to get him out.

Matt Garza – 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  It’s an extravaGarza!

Chase Headley – 0-for-2, 1 RBI and a sacrifice.  Oh yeah, baby, he’s back!

Anthony Bass – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 1 K in Coors.  I’m seriously considering doing a weekly podcast next year and, if I do, the first order of business will be finding someone to compose a Hodgepadre song.  In related news, the Rockies are really phoning it in this September.

Tommy Hunter – Left his start with a strained groin.  Wouldn’t wanna be near his colander.

John Mayberry Jr. – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  Yes, the Phillies are phoning it in even worse than the Rockies, but the good thing about a team phoning it in is they’ll play guys like Mayberry every day.

Wilson Ramos – 3-for-3 with his 2nd homer in his last three games.  Okay, pop quiz, hotshot!  Who’s gonna be more valuable next year, Wilson Ramos or Jesus Montero?  Laughably obvious?  Or is it?

Brett Lawrie – Out for the year with a fractured finger.  First, House doesn’t win at the Emmys, now this.

Dan Haren – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Might miss his last start after being hit by a liner on the wrist.  His owners get pist.

Peter Bourjos – 3-for-4 with the slam & legs.  Now has 12 homers and 22 steals.  Next year he might be my number one “Get this guy in every league” guy.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to 15 homers and 40 steals.  He’s gonna be Stubbs without the .240 average.

Vernon Wells – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Hey, all you need is a short term hot schmotato and at least I’m not recommending Derrek Lee.  Oh, wait, a second…

Derrek Lee – 3-for-4 with a homer.  Now has three homers in the last 8 days.  Grey’s recommending Derrek Lee again, there goes the neighborhood.

Ross Ohlendorf – 2 IP, 7 ER.  Now has given up 31 earned runs in 33 and a 1/3 innings with a 1.99 WHIP.  Swollendwarf!

Lucas Duda – Left yesterday’s game due to dizziness after crashing into the right field wall.  Forget about moving the fences in, the Mets should move the fences back.

Brent Morel – Hit his 4th homer in the last ten games.  Brent Morel is looking Septacular!

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  This doesn’t have much to do with fantasy baseball (like Swollendwarf does), but does anyone else get the feeling that the Ubaldo deadline trade is gonna be one that the Indians look back on in ten years and regret?

Travis Hafner – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Pick him up and think about the fun you can have at the end of the season when someone looks at your roster and you have Derrek Lee, Vernon Wells and Hafner.  When they ask you how’d you win, you can freak them out by telling them it’s really 2006 and you hope Bob Barker hosts The Price Is Right forever.

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I’m sure you’ll hear more about this when we go over our teams in the offseason, but after we inexplicably dropped Vazquez from our LABR team he’s put up 137 innings, 2.89 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9 Wins and 126 Ks.  Pretty much would’ve been leading our team from that point on.  He’s also been the topic of more discussion on IM between Rudy and I than maybe any other player.  Usually goes like this, “F**king Vazquez!”  “I know.”  “Seriously, f**k him!”  “I hate his face.”

Logan Morrison – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last three games.  He’s just lucky the minor league season is over so he can’t be demoted.

Bronson Arroyo – 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Oh, no, he’s endangering his Sigh Young chances!

Brandon Phillips – 3-for-4 with his 12th steal.  Yesterday, he said the Reds would not receive a “homeboy hookup” with his final contract.  Walt Jocketty volleyed back that he just wants to “pay a man his worth and keep it on the heezy.”  Phillips then replied through his translator, Barbara Billingsley, that, “The heezy is for sure, but Beezy needs to get the deezy or else he’s gonna Cherokee fade this piece.”

What a distracting week. Football comes in and trumps all of the trade deadline thunder, and I’m getting sick of seeing “Mr. Mackey” give football updates. If I have to explain that joke, then it really wasn’t that funny. So back to the sport that is actually being played. Trade deadline rumors are rampant, some pieces have been moved already, with some really interesting fantasy relevant moves to come. On a side note, for my money is there a better GM in baseball than AA in Toronto, he seems to always be a couple steps ahead of other GM’s. Any the who, enjoy the last 2 days of real baseball trading, hopefully the moves will be beneficial to your teams. Nothing sucks worse than losing a top 10 closer this late in the season, but such is life. Good luck on this week’s endeavors. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/3
Dillon Gee vs. Fla – Hensley
Josh Collmenter @ SF – Vogelsong
Ted Lilly @ SD – Stauffer

8/4
Brett Cecil @ Tb – Davis
Jason Marquis @ Col – Jiminez

8/5
Jeff Karstens vs. SD – Harang
Jake Westbrook @ Fla – Nolasco
Jeff Niemann vs. Oak – Moscoso
Mark Buehrle @ Min – Blackburn

Paul Maholm (CHC vs. Zambrano, SD vs. Moseley) Last five starts a very acceptable 3.12 ERA, home ERA on the year 2.37. You picking up what I’m putting down? Playoff hopes start with Maholm and end with the next dude. Pretty scary proposition.

Kevin Correia (CHC vs. Wells, SD vs. Luebke) I have been riding his roads starts like a saddle, now 2 home starts. Match-up wise it looks pretty favorable, it’s getting to be make or break week for the Pirates, raise the Jolly Roger.

Bronson Arroyo (@Hou vs. Norris, @CHC vs. Wells) I was sitting next to Chris De Burgh at a bar the other day and he started singing in honor of Bronson, sentimental stuff. I’m still looking for a useful fantasy tidbit, skip and come back later. Oh I got something, he is the clubhouse leader in negative WAR. Way to go.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, StL vs. Carpenter) Last 4 starts have been better, fantasy-wise he is the roller coaster that someone died on, but we still want to ride it because we have heard before that it was cool.

Doug Fister (Oak vs. Cahill, @Ana vs. Santana) Reading his stats is like reading an obituary. It has a funny twist at the end of it though, he has 12 losses and is top 20 for SP in WAR.

John Lannan (Atl vs. Lowe, @Col vs. Cook) Last 10, 4-2 and a 3.17 ERA. Free passes are his undoing. Home ERA is 2 runs lower than road. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Mike Pelfrey (Fla vs. Vazquez, Atl vs. Jurrjens) Home ERA 3.35. Career low GO/AO. Which means he is giving up a ton of HR’s. Those my friends are ungood for fantasy.

Brian Duensing ( @Ana vs. Santana, CHW vs. Danks) Anyone else think that Santana gets killed in his first start after the no-no? Guess I’m the only one. 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA since July 1st.

Kyle Kendrick (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Lincecum) Somewhere Joe Blanton is sobbing, saying “that should be me.” To me any Philly starter is worth the gamble. Yeah, I went out on a limb there I know. Since June 1st no starter ERA is above 3.70.

Cory Luebke (LAD vs. Kershaw, Pit vs. Correia) He and Moseley have started feeding their teammates Tex-Mex before each of their starts. No word on who supplies the TP. In a funny side note, he is related to Dick Luebke from the 60’s. Yeah, say it twice it’s funnier the second time. Take advantage of the Hodgepodgery.